Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for DORIAN-19
in Canada, United States, Bahamas
Impact Single TC
HWRF
Impact all weather systems in the area
.

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DORIAN-19 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries The Bahamas
Exposed population 10 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 238 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (30 Aug 21:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (The Bahamas)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 238 km/h 0.2 m 987 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 288 km/h 5.7 m 2295 mm 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

288 km/h

Up to 10 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 30 Aug 2019 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 4The Bahamas1995 
CAT. 3The Bahamas1609 
CAT. 2The Bahamas1064 
CAT. 1The Bahamas7971 
Tropical StormThe Bahamas51200 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 24 Aug 2019 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 24 Aug 2019 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 25 Aug 2019 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 25 Aug 2019 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 25 Aug 2019 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 25 Aug 2019 18:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 26 Aug 2019 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 26 Aug 2019 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 26 Aug 2019 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 26 Aug 2019 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 27 Aug 2019 00:00 68 -
- - - - - Barbados
GREEN 12 27 Aug 2019 06:00 76 -
- - - - - Saint Lucia, Barbados
GREEN 13 27 Aug 2019 12:00 76 -
- - - - - Martinique (France)
GREEN 14 27 Aug 2019 18:00 104 -
- - - - - Guadeloupe (France), Dominica
GREEN 15 28 Aug 2019 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 28 Aug 2019 06:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 28 Aug 2019 12:00 115 -
- - - - - British Virgin Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
GREEN 18 28 Aug 2019 18:00 122 -
- - - - - British Virgin Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
GREEN 19 29 Aug 2019 00:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 29 Aug 2019 06:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 29 Aug 2019 12:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 29 Aug 2019 18:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 30 Aug 2019 00:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 30 Aug 2019 06:00 173 - - - - - - -
ORANGE 25 30 Aug 2019 12:00 187 - - - - - - -
GREEN 26 30 Aug 2019 18:00 238 10 thousand
- The Bahamas




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 30 Aug 2019 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmThe Bahamas25 
250-500 mmThe Bahamas13513 
100-250 mmThe Bahamas4739 
50-100 mmThe Bahamas42567 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 24 Aug 2019 12:00 199 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 24 Aug 2019 18:00 108 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 25 Aug 2019 00:00 49 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 25 Aug 2019 06:00 132 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 25 Aug 2019 12:00 166 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 25 Aug 2019 18:00 114 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 26 Aug 2019 00:00 132 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 26 Aug 2019 06:00 85 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 26 Aug 2019 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 26 Aug 2019 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 27 Aug 2019 00:00 336 -
- - - - - Barbados
Blue 12 27 Aug 2019 06:00 69 -
- - - - - Saint Lucia
Blue 13 27 Aug 2019 12:00 121 -
- - - - - Martinique (France)
Blue 14 27 Aug 2019 18:00 146 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 28 Aug 2019 00:00 215 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 28 Aug 2019 06:00 314 -
- - - - - Puerto Rico
Blue 17 28 Aug 2019 12:00 175 -
- - - - - Virgin Islands
Blue 18 28 Aug 2019 18:00 260 -
- - - - - Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
Blue 19 29 Aug 2019 00:00 170 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 29 Aug 2019 06:00 136 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 29 Aug 2019 12:00 174 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 29 Aug 2019 18:00 289 - - - - - - -
Blue 23 30 Aug 2019 00:00 191 - - - - - - -
Blue 24 30 Aug 2019 06:00 229 - - - - - - -
Blue 25 30 Aug 2019 12:00 306 - - - - - - -
Blue 26 30 Aug 2019 18:00 987 20 thousand
- - The Bahamas




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Fort Screven, United States. This height is estimated for 30 Aug 2019 21:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 30 Aug 2019 18:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
30 Aug 2019 21:00 Fort Screven United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:00 Tybee Island United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 20:45 The Landings United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:00 Daufuskie Landing United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:00 Cooper River Landing United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:00 South Beach Villas United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:00 Greenwood Forest United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:00 Calibogue Cay United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:00 Sea Pines Plantation United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:00 Forest Beach United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 20:15 Hickory Bluff United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 20:15 Hilton Head Island United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 20:15 Long Cove Plantation United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 20:15 Seabrook Landing United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 20:15 Bram Landing United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 20:15 Palmetto Dunes United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 20:15 Hilton Head Plantation United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 20:15 Gator Field United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 20:15 Parris Island United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 20:15 Folly Field United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 20:15 Fort Fremont United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 20:15 Scott United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 20:15 Longwood United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 20:45 Sapelo Island United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 20:45 Raccoon Bluff United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 20:30 German Village United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 20:30 Sea Island United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:45 High Point United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 19:00 Cedar Reef Villas United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:00 Black Hammock United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:00 Amelia City United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:00 Fernandina Beach United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:00 Franklintown United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:00 American Beach United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:00 Mayport United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:00 East Mayport United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:30 Isle of Palms United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:30 Palm Valley Landing United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:30 Jacksonville Beach United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:30 Palm Valley United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:30 Ponte Vedra Beach United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:30 Sawgrass United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:30 Mickler Landing United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:30 Casa Cola United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:30 South Ponte Vedra Beach United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:15 Dungeness United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:15 Stafford United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:15 Greyfield United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 22:00 Saint Simons United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 22:00 The Meadows United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:15 Saint Augustine United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:15 Anastasia United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:15 Saint Augustine Beach United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:15 Butler Beach United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:15 Crescent Beach United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:15 Summer Haven United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:15 Palm Coast United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:15 Marineland United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:15 Bon Terra United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:30 Oak Harbor United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:30 Atlantic Beach United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 23:30 Araquey United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 23:30 Villano Beach United States  0.2
30 Aug 2019 21:30 Seabrook United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 21:30 Edisto Beach United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 21:30 Edisto Island United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 21:30 Freedman United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 21:30 Oakgrove United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 21:30 Rockville United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 21:30 Seabrook Island United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 21:30 Kiawah Island United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 21:45 Legareville United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 21:45 Folly Beach United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 22:15 Bayfront United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 22:15 Charleston United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 22:15 Lakeview Of Lawton Bluff United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 22:15 Centerville United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 22:15 Secessionville United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 22:15 Fort Johnson Estates United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 22:15 Hobcaw Point United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 22:15 The Groves United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 22:15 Mount Pleasant United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 22:15 Fort Moultrie United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 22:15 Cassina Heights United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 22:15 Sullivan's Island United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 22:15 Palmetto Fort United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 22:15 Island of Palms United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 22:15 Isle of Palms United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 22:45 Beverly Beach United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 22:45 Flagler Beach United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 22:45 Mound Grove United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 22:45 Ormond-by-the-Sea United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 22:45 Daytona Beach United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 22:45 Holly Hill United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 22:45 Ellinor Village United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 22:45 Ortona United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 22:15 Porcher Bluff United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 22:15 Ten Mile United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 23:00 Seabreeze United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 23:00 South Daytona United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 23:00 Daytona Beach Shores United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 23:00 Allandale United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 23:00 Halifax Estates United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 23:00 Wilbur-by-the-Sea United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 23:00 Isleboro United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 23:00 New Smyrna Beach United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 23:00 Ponce Inlet United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 23:00 Ponce Park United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 23:30 North Litchfield Beach United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 23:30 Huntington Marsh United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 23:30 Oak Hill United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 23:30 Murrells Inlet United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 23:30 Inlet Harbor United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 23:30 Mount Gilead United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 23:30 Garden City United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 23:30 Surfside Beach United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 23:30 Deer Track Villas United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 23:30 Crystal Lake United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 23:30 Pebble Beach United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 23:30 Konig United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 23:30 Myrtle Ridge United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 23:30 Plantation Point United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 23:30 Myrtle Beach United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 23:30 Ocean Forest United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 22:30 Caines United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 22:30 Quarantine United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 22:30 Clambank United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 22:30 De Bordieu Colony United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 22:30 Hagley Estates United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 22:30 True Blue United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 22:30 Birds Nest United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 22:30 Chapel Creek United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 22:30 Pawleys Island United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 22:30 Parkersville United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 22:30 Annieville United States  0.1

Calculation folder at this link