Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for DORIAN-19
in Canada, United States, Bahamas, Virgin Islands, U.S., British, Puerto Rico, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos Islands, Haiti, Dominica, Guadeloupe
Impact Single TC
HWRF
Impact all weather systems in the area
.

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DORIAN-19 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries The Bahamas
Exposed population 10 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 234 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (31 Aug 04:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (The Bahamas)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 234 km/h 0.2 m 1153 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 288 km/h 5.7 m 2295 mm 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

288 km/h

Up to 10 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2019 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 3The Bahamas1658 
CAT. 2The Bahamas2013 
CAT. 1The Bahamas7733 
Tropical StormThe Bahamas55159 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 24 Aug 2019 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 24 Aug 2019 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 25 Aug 2019 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 25 Aug 2019 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 25 Aug 2019 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 25 Aug 2019 18:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 26 Aug 2019 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 26 Aug 2019 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 26 Aug 2019 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 26 Aug 2019 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 27 Aug 2019 00:00 68 -
- - - - - Barbados
GREEN 12 27 Aug 2019 06:00 76 -
- - - - - Saint Lucia, Barbados
GREEN 13 27 Aug 2019 12:00 76 -
- - - - - Martinique (France)
GREEN 14 27 Aug 2019 18:00 104 -
- - - - - Guadeloupe (France), Dominica
GREEN 15 28 Aug 2019 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 28 Aug 2019 06:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 28 Aug 2019 12:00 115 -
- - - - - British Virgin Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
GREEN 18 28 Aug 2019 18:00 122 -
- - - - - British Virgin Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
GREEN 19 29 Aug 2019 00:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 29 Aug 2019 06:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 29 Aug 2019 12:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 29 Aug 2019 18:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 30 Aug 2019 00:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 30 Aug 2019 06:00 173 - - - - - - -
ORANGE 25 30 Aug 2019 12:00 187 - - - - - - -
GREEN 26 30 Aug 2019 18:00 202 - - - - - - -
GREEN 27 31 Aug 2019 00:00 234 10 thousand
- - The Bahamas




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2019 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmThe Bahamas464 
250-500 mmThe Bahamas12165 
100-250 mmThe Bahamas14121 
50-100 mmUnited States, The Bahamas42927
+
United States2252 
The Bahamas40675 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 24 Aug 2019 12:00 199 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 24 Aug 2019 18:00 108 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 25 Aug 2019 00:00 49 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 25 Aug 2019 06:00 132 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 25 Aug 2019 12:00 166 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 25 Aug 2019 18:00 114 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 26 Aug 2019 00:00 132 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 26 Aug 2019 06:00 85 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 26 Aug 2019 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 26 Aug 2019 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 27 Aug 2019 00:00 336 -
- - - - - Barbados
Blue 12 27 Aug 2019 06:00 69 -
- - - - - Saint Lucia
Blue 13 27 Aug 2019 12:00 121 -
- - - - - Martinique (France)
Blue 14 27 Aug 2019 18:00 146 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 28 Aug 2019 00:00 215 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 28 Aug 2019 06:00 314 -
- - - - - Puerto Rico
Blue 17 28 Aug 2019 12:00 175 -
- - - - - Virgin Islands
Blue 18 28 Aug 2019 18:00 260 -
- - - - - Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
Blue 19 29 Aug 2019 00:00 170 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 29 Aug 2019 06:00 136 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 29 Aug 2019 12:00 174 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 29 Aug 2019 18:00 289 - - - - - - -
Blue 23 30 Aug 2019 00:00 191 - - - - - - -
Blue 24 30 Aug 2019 06:00 229 - - - - - - -
Blue 25 30 Aug 2019 12:00 306 - - - - - - -
Blue 26 30 Aug 2019 18:00 244 - - - - - - -
Blue 27 31 Aug 2019 00:00 1153 30 thousand
- - United States, The Bahamas




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Hickory Bluff, United States. This height is estimated for 31 Aug 2019 04:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2019 00:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
31 Aug 2019 04:30 Hickory Bluff United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 04:30 Forest Beach United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 04:30 Hilton Head Island United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 04:30 Long Cove Plantation United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 04:30 Seabrook Landing United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 04:30 Bram Landing United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 04:30 Palmetto Dunes United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 04:30 Hilton Head Plantation United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 04:30 Gator Field United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 04:30 Parris Island United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 04:30 Folly Field United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 04:30 Fort Fremont United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 04:30 Scott United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 04:30 Longwood United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 04:45 Fort Screven United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 04:45 Tybee Island United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 04:30 Daufuskie Landing United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 04:30 Cooper River Landing United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 04:30 South Beach Villas United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 04:30 Greenwood Forest United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 04:30 Calibogue Cay United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 04:30 Sea Pines Plantation United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 04:45 Cedar Reef Villas United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 04:30 Seabrook United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 04:30 Edisto Beach United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 04:30 Edisto Island United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 04:30 Freedman United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 04:30 The Landings United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 05:00 Mayport United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 05:00 Isle of Palms United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 05:00 Oak Harbor United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 05:00 East Mayport United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 05:00 Palm Valley Landing United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 05:00 Atlantic Beach United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 05:00 Jacksonville Beach United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 05:00 Palm Valley United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 05:00 Ponte Vedra Beach United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 05:00 Sawgrass United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 00:00 Mickler Landing United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 00:00 Casa Cola United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 00:00 Araquey United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 00:00 South Ponte Vedra Beach United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 00:00 Saint Augustine United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 00:00 Villano Beach United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 00:00 Anastasia United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 00:00 Saint Augustine Beach United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 00:00 Butler Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 00:00 Crescent Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 00:00 Summer Haven United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 00:00 Marineland United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 05:15 Black Hammock United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 05:15 Franklintown United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 05:15 High Point United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 05:15 Saint Simons United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 05:15 The Meadows United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Amelia City United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Fernandina Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 American Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 05:00 Oakgrove United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 05:00 Rockville United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 05:00 Seabrook Island United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 05:00 Kiawah Island United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 05:30 Dungeness United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 05:30 Stafford United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 05:30 Greyfield United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 05:00 German Village United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 05:00 Sea Island United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 05:45 Sapelo Island United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 05:45 Raccoon Bluff United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 03:30 Bayfront United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 03:30 Folly Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 03:30 Charleston United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 03:30 Lakeview Of Lawton Bluff United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 03:30 Centerville United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 03:30 Secessionville United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 03:30 Fort Johnson Estates United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 03:30 Hobcaw Point United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 03:30 The Groves United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 03:30 Mount Pleasant United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 03:30 Fort Moultrie United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 03:30 Cassina Heights United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 03:30 Sullivan's Island United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 03:30 Palmetto Fort United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 03:30 Island of Palms United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 03:30 Isle of Palms United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 00:00 Beverly Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 00:00 Flagler Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 00:00 Mound Grove United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 00:00 Ormond-by-the-Sea United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 00:00 Daytona Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 00:00 Holly Hill United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 00:00 Ellinor Village United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 00:00 Ortona United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 00:45 Palm Coast United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 00:45 Bon Terra United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 04:30 Seabreeze United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 04:30 Daytona Beach Shores United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 03:30 Legareville United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 04:30 South Daytona United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 04:30 Allandale United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 04:30 Halifax Estates United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 04:30 Wilbur-by-the-Sea United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 03:30 Porcher Bluff United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 03:30 Ten Mile United States  0.1

Calculation folder at this link