Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for DORIAN-19
in Canada, United States, Bahamas, Virgin Islands, U.S., British, Puerto Rico, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos Islands, Haiti, Dominica, Guadeloupe
Impact Single TC
HWRF
Impact all weather systems in the area
.

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DORIAN-19 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries United States, The Bahamas
Exposed population 30 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 252 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (31 Aug 23:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (The Bahamas)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 252 km/h 0.2 m 1665 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 288 km/h 5.7 m 2295 mm 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

288 km/h

Up to 30 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2019 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 4The Bahamas11256 
CAT. 3The Bahamas2751 
CAT. 2The Bahamas1370 
CAT. 1United States, The Bahamas12699
+
United States8359 
The Bahamas4340 
Tropical StormUnited States, The Bahamas1196169
+
United States1147640 
The Bahamas48529 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 24 Aug 2019 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 24 Aug 2019 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 25 Aug 2019 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 25 Aug 2019 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 25 Aug 2019 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 25 Aug 2019 18:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 26 Aug 2019 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 26 Aug 2019 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 26 Aug 2019 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 26 Aug 2019 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 27 Aug 2019 00:00 68 -
- - - - - Barbados
GREEN 12 27 Aug 2019 06:00 76 -
- - - - - Saint Lucia, Barbados
GREEN 13 27 Aug 2019 12:00 76 -
- - - - - Martinique (France)
GREEN 14 27 Aug 2019 18:00 104 -
- - - - - Guadeloupe (France), Dominica
GREEN 15 28 Aug 2019 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 28 Aug 2019 06:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 28 Aug 2019 12:00 115 -
- - - - - British Virgin Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
GREEN 18 28 Aug 2019 18:00 122 -
- - - - - British Virgin Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
GREEN 19 29 Aug 2019 00:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 29 Aug 2019 06:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 29 Aug 2019 12:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 29 Aug 2019 18:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 30 Aug 2019 00:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 30 Aug 2019 06:00 173 - - - - - - -
ORANGE 25 30 Aug 2019 12:00 187 - - - - - - -
GREEN 26 30 Aug 2019 18:00 202 - - - - - - -
GREEN 27 31 Aug 2019 00:00 234 - - - - - - -
GREEN 28 31 Aug 2019 06:00 248 - - - - - - -
GREEN 29 31 Aug 2019 12:00 230 - - - - - - -
GREEN 30 31 Aug 2019 18:00 252 30 thousand
- United States, The Bahamas




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2019 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmThe Bahamas63 
250-500 mmThe Bahamas14473 
100-250 mmUnited States, The Bahamas301516
+
United States255935 
The Bahamas45581 
50-100 mmUnited States, The Bahamas652919
+
United States650812 
The Bahamas2107 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 24 Aug 2019 12:00 199 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 24 Aug 2019 18:00 108 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 25 Aug 2019 00:00 49 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 25 Aug 2019 06:00 132 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 25 Aug 2019 12:00 166 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 25 Aug 2019 18:00 114 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 26 Aug 2019 00:00 132 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 26 Aug 2019 06:00 85 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 26 Aug 2019 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 26 Aug 2019 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 27 Aug 2019 00:00 336 -
- - - - - Barbados
Blue 12 27 Aug 2019 06:00 69 -
- - - - - Saint Lucia
Blue 13 27 Aug 2019 12:00 121 -
- - - - - Martinique (France)
Blue 14 27 Aug 2019 18:00 146 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 28 Aug 2019 00:00 215 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 28 Aug 2019 06:00 314 -
- - - - - Puerto Rico
Blue 17 28 Aug 2019 12:00 175 -
- - - - - Virgin Islands
Blue 18 28 Aug 2019 18:00 260 -
- - - - - Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
Blue 19 29 Aug 2019 00:00 170 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 29 Aug 2019 06:00 136 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 29 Aug 2019 12:00 174 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 29 Aug 2019 18:00 289 - - - - - - -
Blue 23 30 Aug 2019 00:00 191 - - - - - - -
Blue 24 30 Aug 2019 06:00 229 - - - - - - -
Blue 25 30 Aug 2019 12:00 306 - - - - - - -
Blue 26 30 Aug 2019 18:00 244 - - - - - - -
Blue 27 31 Aug 2019 00:00 185 - - - - - - -
Blue 28 31 Aug 2019 06:00 329 - - - - - - -
Blue 29 31 Aug 2019 12:00 316 - - - - - - -
Blue 30 31 Aug 2019 18:00 1665 320 thousand
- - United States, The Bahamas




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Sapelo Island, United States. This height is estimated for 31 Aug 2019 23:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2019 18:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
31 Aug 2019 23:45 Sapelo Island United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 23:45 Raccoon Bluff United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 23:45 High Point United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 23:45 Saint Simons United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 23:45 The Meadows United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 23:45 German Village United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 23:45 Sea Island United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 23:30 Black Hammock United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:30 Amelia City United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:30 Fernandina Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:30 Franklintown United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:30 American Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:30 Mayport United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:30 East Mayport United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:00 Dungeness United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:00 Stafford United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:00 Greyfield United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:30 Casa Cola United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:30 Araquey United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:30 South Ponte Vedra Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:30 Saint Augustine United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:30 Villano Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:30 Anastasia United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:30 Saint Augustine Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:30 Butler Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:45 Hickory Bluff United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:45 Forest Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:45 Hilton Head Island United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:45 Long Cove Plantation United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:45 Seabrook Landing United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:45 Bram Landing United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:45 Palmetto Dunes United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:45 Hilton Head Plantation United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:45 Gator Field United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:45 Parris Island United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:45 Folly Field United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:45 Fort Fremont United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:45 Scott United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:45 Longwood United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:30 Fort Screven United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:30 Tybee Island United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:45 The Landings United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:30 Daufuskie Landing United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:30 Cooper River Landing United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:30 South Beach Villas United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:30 Greenwood Forest United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:30 Calibogue Cay United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:30 Sea Pines Plantation United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:30 Isle of Palms United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:30 Oak Harbor United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:30 Atlantic Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:30 Jacksonville Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:30 Ponte Vedra Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:15 North Litchfield Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:15 Huntington Marsh United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:15 Oak Hill United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:15 Murrells Inlet United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:15 Inlet Harbor United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:15 Mount Gilead United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:15 Garden City United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:15 Surfside Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:15 Deer Track Villas United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:15 Crystal Lake United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:15 Pebble Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:15 Konig United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:15 Myrtle Ridge United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:15 Plantation Point United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:15 Myrtle Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:15 Ocean Forest United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:45 Palm Valley Landing United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:45 Palm Valley United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:45 Sawgrass United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:45 Mickler Landing United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 21:00 Caines United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 21:00 Quarantine United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 21:00 Clambank United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 21:00 De Bordieu Colony United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 21:00 Hagley Estates United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 21:00 True Blue United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 21:00 Birds Nest United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 21:00 Chapel Creek United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 21:00 Pawleys Island United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 21:00 Parkersville United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 21:00 Annieville United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:00 Crescent Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:00 Summer Haven United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:00 Palm Coast United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:00 Marineland United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:00 Bon Terra United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:15 Beverly Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:15 Flagler Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:15 Mound Grove United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:15 Ormond-by-the-Sea United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:15 Daytona Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:15 Holly Hill United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:15 Ellinor Village United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:15 Ortona United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:45 Seabrook United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:45 Edisto Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:45 Edisto Island United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:45 Freedman United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:30 Cedar Reef Villas United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 21:15 Oakgrove United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 21:15 Rockville United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 21:15 Seabrook Island United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 21:15 Kiawah Island United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:45 Seabreeze United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:45 Daytona Beach Shores United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:00 Arcadian Shores United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:00 Briarcliffe Acres United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:00 Atlantic Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:00 Ingram Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:00 North Myrtle Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 20:00 Cherry Grove Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 19:15 Nixons Crossroads United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 19:15 Creekside United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 19:15 Little River United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 19:15 Calabash United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 19:15 Shady Forest United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 19:15 Sunset Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:15 Isleboro United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:15 New Smyrna Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:15 Ponce Inlet United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:15 Ponce Park United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:15 Bethune Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:15 Eldora United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 19:30 Playa Caimito Cuba  0.1
31 Aug 2019 19:30 Playa de Tasajera Cuba  0.1
31 Aug 2019 19:30 Caserio Pescadores Cuba  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:15 South Daytona United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:15 Allandale United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:15 Halifax Estates United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 23:15 Wilbur-by-the-Sea United States  0.1

Calculation folder at this link