Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for DORIAN-19
in Canada, United States, Bahamas, Virgin Islands, U.S., British, Puerto Rico, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos Islands, Haiti, Dominica, Guadeloupe
Impact Single TC
HWRF
Impact all weather systems in the area
.

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DORIAN-19 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries United States, The Bahamas
Exposed population 90 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 263 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (01 Sep 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (The Bahamas)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 263 km/h 0.3 m 1599 mm 1.5
HWRF Overall 288 km/h 5.7 m 2295 mm 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

288 km/h

Up to 90 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 01 Sep 2019 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 4The Bahamas14935 
CAT. 3The Bahamas6511 
CAT. 2United States, The Bahamas7963
+
United States23 
The Bahamas7940 
CAT. 1United States, The Bahamas60601
+
United States30193 
The Bahamas30408 
Tropical StormUnited States, The Bahamas2605805
+
United States2598893 
The Bahamas6912 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 24 Aug 2019 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 24 Aug 2019 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 25 Aug 2019 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 25 Aug 2019 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 25 Aug 2019 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 25 Aug 2019 18:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 26 Aug 2019 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 26 Aug 2019 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 26 Aug 2019 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 26 Aug 2019 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 27 Aug 2019 00:00 68 -
- - - - - Barbados
GREEN 12 27 Aug 2019 06:00 76 -
- - - - - Saint Lucia, Barbados
GREEN 13 27 Aug 2019 12:00 76 -
- - - - - Martinique (France)
GREEN 14 27 Aug 2019 18:00 104 -
- - - - - Guadeloupe (France), Dominica
GREEN 15 28 Aug 2019 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 28 Aug 2019 06:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 28 Aug 2019 12:00 115 -
- - - - - British Virgin Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
GREEN 18 28 Aug 2019 18:00 122 -
- - - - - British Virgin Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
GREEN 19 29 Aug 2019 00:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 29 Aug 2019 06:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 29 Aug 2019 12:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 29 Aug 2019 18:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 30 Aug 2019 00:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 30 Aug 2019 06:00 173 - - - - - - -
ORANGE 25 30 Aug 2019 12:00 187 - - - - - - -
GREEN 26 30 Aug 2019 18:00 202 - - - - - - -
GREEN 27 31 Aug 2019 00:00 234 - - - - - - -
GREEN 28 31 Aug 2019 06:00 248 - - - - - - -
GREEN 29 31 Aug 2019 12:00 230 - - - - - - -
GREEN 30 31 Aug 2019 18:00 252 - - - - - - -
ORANGE 31 01 Sep 2019 00:00 256 - - - - - - -
ORANGE 32 01 Sep 2019 06:00 263 90 thousand
- United States, The Bahamas




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 01 Sep 2019 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
more than 1000 mmThe Bahamas63 
750-1000 mmThe Bahamas29 
500-750 mmThe Bahamas8895 
250-500 mmUnited States, The Bahamas121358
+
United States70956 
The Bahamas50402 
100-250 mmUnited States, The Bahamas2902103
+
United States2898988 
The Bahamas3115 
50-100 mmUnited States, The Bahamas2473411
+
United States2471725 
The Bahamas1686 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 24 Aug 2019 12:00 199 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 24 Aug 2019 18:00 108 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 25 Aug 2019 00:00 49 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 25 Aug 2019 06:00 132 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 25 Aug 2019 12:00 166 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 25 Aug 2019 18:00 114 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 26 Aug 2019 00:00 132 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 26 Aug 2019 06:00 85 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 26 Aug 2019 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 26 Aug 2019 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 27 Aug 2019 00:00 336 -
- - - - - Barbados
Blue 12 27 Aug 2019 06:00 69 -
- - - - - Saint Lucia
Blue 13 27 Aug 2019 12:00 121 -
- - - - - Martinique (France)
Blue 14 27 Aug 2019 18:00 146 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 28 Aug 2019 00:00 215 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 28 Aug 2019 06:00 314 -
- - - - - Puerto Rico
Blue 17 28 Aug 2019 12:00 175 -
- - - - - Virgin Islands
Blue 18 28 Aug 2019 18:00 260 -
- - - - - Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
Blue 19 29 Aug 2019 00:00 170 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 29 Aug 2019 06:00 136 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 29 Aug 2019 12:00 174 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 29 Aug 2019 18:00 289 - - - - - - -
Blue 23 30 Aug 2019 00:00 191 - - - - - - -
Blue 24 30 Aug 2019 06:00 229 - - - - - - -
Blue 25 30 Aug 2019 12:00 306 - - - - - - -
Blue 26 30 Aug 2019 18:00 244 - - - - - - -
Blue 27 31 Aug 2019 00:00 185 - - - - - - -
Blue 28 31 Aug 2019 06:00 329 - - - - - - -
Blue 29 31 Aug 2019 12:00 316 - - - - - - -
Blue 30 31 Aug 2019 18:00 381 - - - - - - -
Blue 31 01 Sep 2019 00:00 307 - - - - - - -
Blue 32 01 Sep 2019 06:00 1599 3 million
United States, The Bahamas




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Marsh Harbour, The Bahamas. This height is estimated for 01 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 01 Sep 2019 06:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
01 Sep 2019 12:00 Marsh Harbour The Bahamas  0.3
01 Sep 2019 12:00 Hope Town The Bahamas  0.3
01 Sep 2019 07:00 The Bluff The Bahamas  0.3
01 Sep 2019 07:00 Spanish Wells The Bahamas  0.3
01 Sep 2019 07:00 Lower Bogue The Bahamas  0.3
01 Sep 2019 07:00 Upper Bogue The Bahamas  0.3
01 Sep 2019 07:00 Dunmore Town The Bahamas  0.3
01 Sep 2019 07:00 Gregory Town The Bahamas  0.3
01 Sep 2019 07:00 Alice Town The Bahamas  0.3
01 Sep 2019 07:00 Great Guana Cay The Bahamas  0.3
01 Sep 2019 07:00 South Palmetto Point The Bahamas  0.2
01 Sep 2019 07:00 Tarpum Head The Bahamas  0.2
01 Sep 2019 07:00 Rock Sound The Bahamas  0.2
01 Sep 2019 07:00 North Palmetto Point The Bahamas  0.2
01 Sep 2019 07:00 Savannah Sound The Bahamas  0.2
01 Sep 2019 11:30 Wilson City The Bahamas  0.2
01 Sep 2019 07:30 James Pt The Bahamas  0.2
01 Sep 2019 07:30 Governors Harbour The Bahamas  0.2
01 Sep 2019 06:30 Colebrooke Dale The Bahamas  0.2
01 Sep 2019 06:45 Cove Settlement The Bahamas  0.2
01 Sep 2019 06:45 Smith Town The Bahamas  0.2
01 Sep 2019 06:45 The Bight The Bahamas  0.2
01 Sep 2019 11:30 Cherokee Sound The Bahamas  0.2
01 Sep 2019 10:45 Beverly Beach United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 10:45 Flagler Beach United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 10:45 Mound Grove United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 10:45 Ormond-by-the-Sea United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 10:45 Daytona Beach United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 10:45 Holly Hill United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 10:45 Ellinor Village United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 10:45 Ortona United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 09:45 Black Hammock United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 09:45 Amelia City United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 09:45 Fernandina Beach United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 09:45 Franklintown United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 09:45 American Beach United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 09:45 Mayport United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 09:45 East Mayport United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 10:00 High Point United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 10:00 Saint Simons United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 10:00 The Meadows United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 12:00 Cooper's Town The Bahamas  0.2
01 Sep 2019 12:00 Blackwood Village The Bahamas  0.2
01 Sep 2019 12:00 High Rocks The Bahamas  0.2
01 Sep 2019 11:00 Crossing Rocks The Bahamas  0.2
01 Sep 2019 09:15 Saint Augustine United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 09:15 Anastasia United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 09:15 Saint Augustine Beach United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 09:15 Butler Beach United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 09:15 Crescent Beach United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 09:15 Summer Haven United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 09:15 Palm Coast United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 09:15 Marineland United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 09:15 Bon Terra United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 11:00 Araquey United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 11:00 Villano Beach United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 10:00 Dungeness United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 10:00 Stafford United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 10:00 Greyfield United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 10:45 German Village United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 10:45 Sea Island United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 07:00 Fort Screven United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 07:00 Tybee Island United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 10:00 North Litchfield Beach United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 10:00 Huntington Marsh United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 10:00 Oak Hill United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 10:00 Murrells Inlet United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 10:00 Inlet Harbor United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 10:00 Mount Gilead United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 10:00 Garden City United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 10:00 Surfside Beach United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 10:00 Deer Track Villas United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 10:00 Crystal Lake United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 10:00 Pebble Beach United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 10:00 Konig United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 10:00 Myrtle Ridge United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 10:00 Plantation Point United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 10:00 Myrtle Beach United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 10:00 Ocean Forest United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 11:30 Isle of Palms United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 11:30 Oak Harbor United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 11:30 Palm Valley Landing United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 11:30 Atlantic Beach United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 11:30 Jacksonville Beach United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 11:30 Palm Valley United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 11:30 Ponte Vedra Beach United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 11:30 Sawgrass United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 11:30 Mickler Landing United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 11:45 Casa Cola United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 11:45 South Ponte Vedra Beach United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 08:45 Eldora United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 07:00 Sapelo Island United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 07:00 Raccoon Bluff United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 12:00 Caines United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 12:00 Quarantine United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 12:00 Clambank United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 12:00 De Bordieu Colony United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 12:00 Hagley Estates United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 12:00 True Blue United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 12:00 Birds Nest United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 12:00 Chapel Creek United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 12:00 Pawleys Island United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 12:00 Parkersville United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 12:00 Annieville United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 10:30 Norman Castle The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 09:00 Anderson The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 09:00 Simms The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 09:00 Millers The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 10:45 Seabreeze United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 10:45 South Daytona United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 10:45 Daytona Beach Shores United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 10:45 Allandale United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 10:45 Halifax Estates United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 10:45 Wilbur-by-the-Sea United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 10:45 Isleboro United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 10:45 New Smyrna Beach United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 10:45 Ponce Inlet United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 10:45 Ponce Park United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 07:15 The Landings United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 10:15 Bethune Beach United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 11:00 Arcadian Shores United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 11:00 Briarcliffe Acres United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 11:00 Atlantic Beach United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 11:00 Ingram Beach United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 11:00 North Myrtle Beach United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 11:00 Cherry Grove Beach United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 07:30 Cedar Harbor The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 10:45 Current The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 06:15 South Beach Villas United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 06:15 Greenwood Forest United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 06:15 Calibogue Cay United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 06:15 Sea Pines Plantation United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 06:15 Forest Beach United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 11:15 Nixons Crossroads United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 11:15 Creekside United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 11:15 Little River United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 11:15 Calabash United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 11:15 Shady Forest United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 11:15 Sunset Beach United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 06:30 Edisto Beach United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 06:30 Edisto Island United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 06:30 Freedman United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 10:30 Sea Trail Plantation United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 06:30 Daufuskie Landing United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 06:30 Cooper River Landing United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 11:45 Hickory Bluff United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 11:45 Hilton Head Island United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 11:45 Long Cove Plantation United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 11:45 Seabrook Landing United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 11:45 Bram Landing United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 11:45 Palmetto Dunes United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 11:45 Hilton Head Plantation United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 11:45 Gator Field United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 11:45 Parris Island United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 11:45 Folly Field United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 11:45 Fort Fremont United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 11:45 Scott United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 11:45 Longwood United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 10:30 Ocean Isle Beach United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 06:45 Seabrook United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 08:45 Evans Pines United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 08:45 Ballard Pines United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 08:45 Cummings United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 08:45 Wabasso United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 08:45 Orchid United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 08:45 Indian River Shores United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 06:30 Yent Place United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 06:30 Carrabelle United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 06:30 Lanark Village United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 06:30 Pinders The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 06:45 Eastpoint United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 06:15 North End Pt The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 06:15 Arthurs Town The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 06:15 The Lot The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 06:15 Zion Hill The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 09:30 Thurston Hill The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 10:30 Brick Landing United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 10:30 Monogram United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 10:30 Holden Beach United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 11:15 Red Bay The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 11:15 Nicolls Town The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 10:30 Secession United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 10:30 Varnamtown United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 06:45 Melbourne Beach United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 06:45 Indialantic United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 06:45 Valkaria United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 06:45 Grant United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 06:45 Melbourne Shores United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 07:00 Cedar Reef Villas United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 06:30 Waterford The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 06:30 Weymes Bight The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 06:30 John Millars The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 06:30 Millars The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 06:30 Bannerman Town The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 07:45 Gomez United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 07:45 Hobe Sound United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 07:45 Jupiter United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 07:45 Jupiter Island United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 07:45 Tequesta United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 07:45 Selhaven United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 07:45 Blowing Rocks United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 07:45 Jupiter Inlet Colony United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 07:45 Juno Ridge United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 07:45 Juno Beach United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 11:30 Carmichael Village The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 11:30 Nassau The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 11:00 Tropic United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 11:00 Cape Canaveral United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 11:00 Cocoa Beach United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 11:00 South Patrick Shores United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 11:00 Satellite Beach United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 11:00 Indian Harbour Beach United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 11:00 Canova Beach United States  0.1

Calculation folder at this link