Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for DORIAN-19
in Canada, United States, Bahamas, Virgin Islands, U.S., British, Puerto Rico, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos Islands, Haiti, Dominica, Guadeloupe
Impact Single TC
HWRF
Impact all weather systems in the area
.

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DORIAN-19 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries United States, The Bahamas
Exposed population 90 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 187 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.0 m (03 Sep 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (The Bahamas)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 187 km/h 1.0 m 515 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 288 km/h 5.7 m 2295 mm 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

288 km/h

Up to 90 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Sep 2019 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1United States, The Bahamas87604
+
United States82703 
The Bahamas4901 
Tropical StormUnited States, The Bahamas6545968
+
United States6486324 
The Bahamas59644 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 24 Aug 2019 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 24 Aug 2019 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 25 Aug 2019 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 25 Aug 2019 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 25 Aug 2019 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 25 Aug 2019 18:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 26 Aug 2019 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 26 Aug 2019 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 26 Aug 2019 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 26 Aug 2019 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 27 Aug 2019 00:00 68 -
- - - - - Barbados
GREEN 12 27 Aug 2019 06:00 76 -
- - - - - Saint Lucia, Barbados
GREEN 13 27 Aug 2019 12:00 76 -
- - - - - Martinique (France)
GREEN 14 27 Aug 2019 18:00 104 -
- - - - - Guadeloupe (France), Dominica
GREEN 15 28 Aug 2019 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 28 Aug 2019 06:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 28 Aug 2019 12:00 115 -
- - - - - British Virgin Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
GREEN 18 28 Aug 2019 18:00 122 -
- - - - - British Virgin Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
GREEN 19 29 Aug 2019 00:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 29 Aug 2019 06:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 29 Aug 2019 12:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 29 Aug 2019 18:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 30 Aug 2019 00:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 30 Aug 2019 06:00 173 - - - - - - -
ORANGE 25 30 Aug 2019 12:00 187 - - - - - - -
GREEN 26 30 Aug 2019 18:00 202 - - - - - - -
GREEN 27 31 Aug 2019 00:00 234 - - - - - - -
GREEN 28 31 Aug 2019 06:00 248 - - - - - - -
GREEN 29 31 Aug 2019 12:00 230 - - - - - - -
GREEN 30 31 Aug 2019 18:00 252 - - - - - - -
ORANGE 31 01 Sep 2019 00:00 256 - - - - - - -
ORANGE 32 01 Sep 2019 06:00 263 -
- - - - - The Bahamas
ORANGE 33 01 Sep 2019 12:00 248 10 thousand
- The Bahamas
ORANGE 34 01 Sep 2019 18:00 288 20 thousand
The Bahamas
ORANGE 35 02 Sep 2019 00:00 284 60 thousand
The Bahamas
ORANGE 36 02 Sep 2019 06:00 274 50 thousand
The Bahamas
ORANGE 37 02 Sep 2019 12:00 259 50 thousand
The Bahamas
ORANGE 38 02 Sep 2019 18:00 230 50 thousand
- The Bahamas
ORANGE 39 03 Sep 2019 00:00 212 50 thousand
- The Bahamas, United States
GREEN 40 03 Sep 2019 06:00 205 50 thousand
- - The Bahamas
GREEN 41 03 Sep 2019 12:00 180 50 thousand
- - - United States, The Bahamas
GREEN 42 03 Sep 2019 18:00 187 90 thousand
- - - - United States, The Bahamas




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Sep 2019 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmUnited States797821 
100-250 mmUnited States4578892 
50-100 mmUnited States, The Bahamas2303870
+
United States2301194 
The Bahamas2676 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 24 Aug 2019 12:00 199 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 24 Aug 2019 18:00 108 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 25 Aug 2019 00:00 49 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 25 Aug 2019 06:00 132 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 25 Aug 2019 12:00 166 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 25 Aug 2019 18:00 114 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 26 Aug 2019 00:00 132 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 26 Aug 2019 06:00 85 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 26 Aug 2019 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 26 Aug 2019 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 27 Aug 2019 00:00 336 -
- - - - - Barbados
Blue 12 27 Aug 2019 06:00 69 -
- - - - - Saint Lucia
Blue 13 27 Aug 2019 12:00 121 -
- - - - - Martinique (France)
Blue 14 27 Aug 2019 18:00 146 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 28 Aug 2019 00:00 215 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 28 Aug 2019 06:00 314 -
- - - - - Puerto Rico
Blue 17 28 Aug 2019 12:00 175 -
- - - - - Virgin Islands
Blue 18 28 Aug 2019 18:00 260 -
- - - - - Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
Blue 19 29 Aug 2019 00:00 170 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 29 Aug 2019 06:00 136 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 29 Aug 2019 12:00 174 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 29 Aug 2019 18:00 289 - - - - - - -
Blue 23 30 Aug 2019 00:00 191 - - - - - - -
Blue 24 30 Aug 2019 06:00 229 - - - - - - -
Blue 25 30 Aug 2019 12:00 306 - - - - - - -
Blue 26 30 Aug 2019 18:00 244 - - - - - - -
Blue 27 31 Aug 2019 00:00 185 - - - - - - -
Blue 28 31 Aug 2019 06:00 329 - - - - - - -
Blue 29 31 Aug 2019 12:00 316 - - - - - - -
Blue 30 31 Aug 2019 18:00 381 - - - - - - -
Blue 31 01 Sep 2019 00:00 307 - - - - - - -
Blue 32 01 Sep 2019 06:00 381 - - - - - - -
Blue 33 01 Sep 2019 12:00 378 1 thousand
- - - - The Bahamas
Blue 34 01 Sep 2019 18:00 389 7 thousand
- - - The Bahamas, United States
Blue 35 02 Sep 2019 00:00 501 4 thousand
- - - The Bahamas
Blue 36 02 Sep 2019 06:00 571 10 thousand
- - - The Bahamas
Blue 37 02 Sep 2019 12:00 567 2 thousand
- - - The Bahamas
Blue 38 02 Sep 2019 18:00 384 2 thousand
- - - The Bahamas
Blue 39 03 Sep 2019 00:00 297 2 thousand
- - - The Bahamas
Blue 40 03 Sep 2019 06:00 410 1 thousand
- - - - The Bahamas
Blue 41 03 Sep 2019 12:00 213 -
- - - - - The Bahamas
Blue 42 03 Sep 2019 18:00 515 5.4 million
- - - United States, The Bahamas




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.0m in Hawksbill, The Bahamas. This height is estimated for 03 Sep 2019 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 03 Sep 2019 18:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
03 Sep 2019 18:00 Hawksbill The Bahamas  1.0
03 Sep 2019 18:00 Freeport The Bahamas  1.0
03 Sep 2019 20:30 Valkaria United States  0.5
03 Sep 2019 20:30 Grant United States  0.5
03 Sep 2019 20:30 Melbourne Shores United States  0.5
03 Sep 2019 20:30 Evans Pines United States  0.5
03 Sep 2019 20:30 Ballard Pines United States  0.5
03 Sep 2019 20:30 Cummings United States  0.5
03 Sep 2019 20:30 Wabasso United States  0.5
03 Sep 2019 20:30 Orchid United States  0.5
03 Sep 2019 20:30 Indian River Shores United States  0.5
03 Sep 2019 21:15 Isleboro United States  0.5
03 Sep 2019 21:15 New Smyrna Beach United States  0.5
03 Sep 2019 21:15 Ponce Inlet United States  0.5
03 Sep 2019 21:15 Ponce Park United States  0.5
03 Sep 2019 21:15 Bethune Beach United States  0.5
03 Sep 2019 21:15 Eldora United States  0.5
03 Sep 2019 21:00 Melbourne Beach United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 21:00 Indialantic United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 20:30 Tropic United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 20:30 Indian Harbour Beach United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 20:30 Canova Beach United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 20:30 Nevins United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 20:30 Riomar United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 20:30 South Beach United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 22:00 Beverly Beach United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 22:00 Flagler Beach United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 22:00 Mound Grove United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 22:00 Ormond-by-the-Sea United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 22:00 Daytona Beach United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 22:00 Holly Hill United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 22:00 Ellinor Village United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 22:00 Ortona United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 20:45 Cocoa Beach United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 20:45 South Patrick Shores United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 20:45 Satellite Beach United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 20:30 Indrio United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 20:30 Saint Lucie United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 20:30 Queens Cove United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 23:30 Seabreeze United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 23:30 South Daytona United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 23:30 Daytona Beach Shores United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 23:30 Allandale United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 23:30 Halifax Estates United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 23:30 Wilbur-by-the-Sea United States  0.4
04 Sep 2019 00:00 Cape Canaveral United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 22:00 Saint Augustine United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 22:00 Anastasia United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 22:00 Saint Augustine Beach United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 22:00 Butler Beach United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 22:00 Crescent Beach United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 22:00 Summer Haven United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 22:00 Palm Coast United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 22:00 Marineland United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 22:00 Bon Terra United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 23:45 Araquey United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 23:45 Villano Beach United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 23:45 Casa Cola United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 23:45 South Ponte Vedra Beach United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 19:00 Isle of Palms United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 19:00 Palm Valley Landing United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 19:00 Jacksonville Beach United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 19:00 Palm Valley United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 19:00 Ponte Vedra Beach United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 19:00 Sawgrass United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 19:00 Mickler Landing United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 19:15 Hope Estate The Bahamas  0.3
03 Sep 2019 23:45 Black Hammock United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 23:45 Amelia City United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 23:45 Fernandina Beach United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 23:45 Franklintown United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 23:45 American Beach United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 23:45 Mayport United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 23:45 East Mayport United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 20:45 Ankona United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 23:15 Oak Harbor United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 23:15 Atlantic Beach United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 18:15 Walton United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 18:15 Eden United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 18:15 Jensen Beach United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 18:15 Hutchinson Island South United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 18:15 Sewall's Point United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 18:15 Port Sewall United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 20:15 Port Salerno United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 20:15 Gomez United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 20:15 Hobe Sound United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 20:15 Jupiter United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 20:15 Jupiter Island United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 20:15 Tequesta United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 20:15 Selhaven United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 20:15 Blowing Rocks United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 20:15 Jupiter Inlet Colony United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 00:00 Dungeness United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 00:00 Stafford United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 00:00 Greyfield United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 21:30 High Point United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 21:30 Saint Simons United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 21:30 The Meadows United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 20:00 Sapelo Island United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 20:00 Raccoon Bluff United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 21:30 Gregory Town The Bahamas  0.2
03 Sep 2019 21:30 Alice Town The Bahamas  0.2
03 Sep 2019 21:30 James Pt The Bahamas  0.2
03 Sep 2019 21:30 Governors Harbour The Bahamas  0.2
03 Sep 2019 20:00 German Village United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 20:00 Sea Island United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 18:00 Playa Caimito Cuba  0.2
03 Sep 2019 18:00 Playa de Tasajera Cuba  0.2
03 Sep 2019 18:00 Caserio Pescadores Cuba  0.2
03 Sep 2019 19:00 Lake Park United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 19:00 Riviera Beach United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 19:00 Juno Ridge United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 19:00 North Palm Beach United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 19:00 Juno Beach United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 19:00 Palm Beach Shores United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 19:45 Mangonia Park United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 19:45 West Palm Beach United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 19:45 Lake Clarke Shores United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 19:45 Glen Ridge United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 19:45 Cloud Lake United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 19:45 Lantana United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 19:45 Palm Beach United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 19:45 South Palm Beach United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 19:00 Arlington Park United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 19:00 Boca Raton United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 19:00 Floresta United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 19:00 Delray Shores United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 19:00 Yamato United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 19:00 Delray Beach United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 19:00 Little Harbor on the Hillsboro United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 19:00 Chapel Hill United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 19:00 Blue Inlet United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 19:00 Tropic Isle United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 19:00 Highland Beach United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 19:00 Gulf Stream United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 19:00 Hypoluxo United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 19:00 Boynton Beach United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 19:00 Briney Breezes United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 19:00 Ocean Ridge United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 19:00 Manalapan United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 22:45 Fort Screven United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 22:45 Tybee Island United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 18:00 Crown Haven The Bahamas  0.2
03 Sep 2019 18:00 Fox Town The Bahamas  0.2
03 Sep 2019 18:00 Cedar Harbor The Bahamas  0.2
03 Sep 2019 22:00 North End Pt The Bahamas  0.2
03 Sep 2019 22:00 Arthurs Town The Bahamas  0.2
03 Sep 2019 22:00 The Lot The Bahamas  0.2
03 Sep 2019 22:00 Zion Hill The Bahamas  0.2
03 Sep 2019 22:00 Thurston Hill The Bahamas  0.2
03 Sep 2019 22:30 The Landings United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 19:00 Kendall Green United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 19:00 Pompano Beach Highlands United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 19:00 Country Club Isles United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 19:00 Deerfield Beach United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 19:00 Hillsboro Beach United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 22:45 Daufuskie Landing United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 22:45 Cooper River Landing United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 22:45 South Beach Villas United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 22:45 Greenwood Forest United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 22:45 Calibogue Cay United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 22:45 Sea Pines Plantation United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 22:45 Forest Beach United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 23:45 Hickory Bluff United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 23:45 Hilton Head Island United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 23:45 Long Cove Plantation United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 23:45 Seabrook Landing United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 23:45 Bram Landing United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 23:45 Palmetto Dunes United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 23:45 Hilton Head Plantation United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 23:45 Gator Field United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 23:45 Parris Island United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 23:45 Folly Field United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 23:45 Fort Fremont United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 23:45 Scott United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 23:45 Longwood United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 20:15 Coral Heights United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 20:15 Cypress Harbor United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 20:15 Sea Ranch Lakes United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 20:15 Ojus United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 20:15 San Souci Estates United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 20:15 North Bay United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 20:15 Dania United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 20:15 Hallandale United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 20:15 Indian Creek United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 20:15 Bay Harbor Islands United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 20:15 Miami Beach United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 20:15 Aventura United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 20:15 Bal Harbour United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 20:15 Surfside United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 20:15 Sunny Isles United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 20:15 Atlantic Heights United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 20:15 Golden Beach United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 20:15 Beverley Beach United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 19:15 Wilton Manors United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 19:15 Bay Harbor United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 19:15 Harbor Beach United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 19:15 Birch Ocean Front United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 20:30 El Portal United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 20:30 Biscayne Park United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 20:30 Miami Shores United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 20:30 North Miami United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 20:30 North Miami Beach United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 19:15 Liberty Square United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 19:15 Bayshore United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 00:00 Cedar Reef Villas United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 19:15 Key Biscayne United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 19:15 Fisher Island United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 21:30 Seabrook United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 21:30 Edisto Beach United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 21:30 Edisto Island United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 21:30 Freedman United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 19:30 Bay Heights United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 20:30 The Keyhole United States  0.1

Calculation folder at this link