Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for DORIAN-19
in Canada, United States, Bahamas, Virgin Islands, U.S., British, Puerto Rico, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos Islands, Haiti, Dominica, Guadeloupe
Impact Single TC
HWRF
Impact all weather systems in the area
.

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DORIAN-19 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries The Bahamas
Exposed population 40 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 241 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.1 m (30 Aug 15:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (The Bahamas)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 241 km/h 0.1 m 660 mm 1.5
HWRF Overall 288 km/h 5.7 m 2295 mm 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

288 km/h

Up to 40 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 30 Aug 2019 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 4The Bahamas4232 
CAT. 3The Bahamas7084 
CAT. 2The Bahamas10193 
CAT. 1The Bahamas23356 
Tropical StormThe Bahamas23997 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 24 Aug 2019 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 24 Aug 2019 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 25 Aug 2019 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 25 Aug 2019 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 25 Aug 2019 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 25 Aug 2019 18:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 26 Aug 2019 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 26 Aug 2019 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 26 Aug 2019 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 26 Aug 2019 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 27 Aug 2019 00:00 68 -
- - - - - Barbados
GREEN 12 27 Aug 2019 06:00 76 -
- - - - - Saint Lucia, Barbados
GREEN 13 27 Aug 2019 12:00 76 -
- - - - - Martinique (France)
GREEN 14 27 Aug 2019 18:00 104 -
- - - - - Guadeloupe (France), Dominica
GREEN 15 28 Aug 2019 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 28 Aug 2019 06:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 28 Aug 2019 12:00 115 -
- - - - - British Virgin Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
GREEN 18 28 Aug 2019 18:00 122 -
- - - - - British Virgin Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
GREEN 19 29 Aug 2019 00:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 29 Aug 2019 06:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 29 Aug 2019 12:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 29 Aug 2019 18:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 30 Aug 2019 00:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 30 Aug 2019 06:00 173 - - - - - - -
ORANGE 25 30 Aug 2019 12:00 241 40 thousand
- The Bahamas




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 30 Aug 2019 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmThe Bahamas15229 
100-250 mmThe Bahamas3714 
50-100 mmThe Bahamas43344 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 24 Aug 2019 12:00 199 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 24 Aug 2019 18:00 108 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 25 Aug 2019 00:00 49 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 25 Aug 2019 06:00 132 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 25 Aug 2019 12:00 166 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 25 Aug 2019 18:00 114 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 26 Aug 2019 00:00 132 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 26 Aug 2019 06:00 85 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 26 Aug 2019 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 26 Aug 2019 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 27 Aug 2019 00:00 336 -
- - - - - Barbados
Blue 12 27 Aug 2019 06:00 69 -
- - - - - Saint Lucia
Blue 13 27 Aug 2019 12:00 121 -
- - - - - Martinique (France)
Blue 14 27 Aug 2019 18:00 146 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 28 Aug 2019 00:00 215 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 28 Aug 2019 06:00 314 -
- - - - - Puerto Rico
Blue 17 28 Aug 2019 12:00 175 -
- - - - - Virgin Islands
Blue 18 28 Aug 2019 18:00 260 -
- - - - - Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
Blue 19 29 Aug 2019 00:00 170 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 29 Aug 2019 06:00 136 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 29 Aug 2019 12:00 174 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 29 Aug 2019 18:00 289 - - - - - - -
Blue 23 30 Aug 2019 00:00 191 - - - - - - -
Blue 24 30 Aug 2019 06:00 229 - - - - - - -
Blue 25 30 Aug 2019 12:00 660 20 thousand
- - - The Bahamas




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.1m in Summer Haven, United States. This height is estimated for 30 Aug 2019 15:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 30 Aug 2019 12:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
30 Aug 2019 15:15 Summer Haven United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 15:15 Palm Coast United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 15:15 Marineland United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 15:15 Bon Terra United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 15:15 Beverly Beach United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 15:15 Flagler Beach United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 15:15 Mound Grove United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 15:15 Ormond-by-the-Sea United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 15:15 Daytona Beach United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 15:15 Holly Hill United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 15:15 Ellinor Village United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 15:15 Ortona United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 15:15 Saint Augustine United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 15:15 Anastasia United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 15:15 Saint Augustine Beach United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 15:15 Butler Beach United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 15:15 Crescent Beach United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 17:00 Black Hammock United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 17:00 Amelia City United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 17:00 Fernandina Beach United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 17:00 Franklintown United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 17:00 American Beach United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 17:00 Mayport United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 17:00 East Mayport United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 13:00 High Point United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 13:00 Saint Simons United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 13:00 The Meadows United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 14:00 Dungeness United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 14:00 Stafford United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 14:00 Greyfield United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 16:45 Mickler Landing United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 16:45 Casa Cola United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 16:45 Araquey United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 16:45 South Ponte Vedra Beach United States  0.1
30 Aug 2019 16:45 Villano Beach United States  0.1

Calculation folder at this link