Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for DORIAN-19
in Canada, United States, Bahamas
Impact Single TC
HWRF
Impact all weather systems in the area
.

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DORIAN-19 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries The Bahamas
Exposed population 1 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 252 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (31 Aug 06:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (The Bahamas)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 252 km/h 0.2 m 740 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 288 km/h 5.7 m 2295 mm 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

288 km/h

Up to 1 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2019 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1The Bahamas1430 
Tropical StormThe Bahamas21332 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 24 Aug 2019 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 24 Aug 2019 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 25 Aug 2019 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 25 Aug 2019 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 25 Aug 2019 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 25 Aug 2019 18:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 26 Aug 2019 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 26 Aug 2019 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 26 Aug 2019 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 26 Aug 2019 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 27 Aug 2019 00:00 68 -
- - - - - Barbados
GREEN 12 27 Aug 2019 06:00 76 -
- - - - - Saint Lucia, Barbados
GREEN 13 27 Aug 2019 12:00 76 -
- - - - - Martinique (France)
GREEN 14 27 Aug 2019 18:00 104 -
- - - - - Guadeloupe (France), Dominica
GREEN 15 28 Aug 2019 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 28 Aug 2019 06:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 28 Aug 2019 12:00 115 -
- - - - - British Virgin Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
GREEN 18 28 Aug 2019 18:00 122 -
- - - - - British Virgin Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
GREEN 19 29 Aug 2019 00:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 29 Aug 2019 06:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 29 Aug 2019 12:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 29 Aug 2019 18:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 30 Aug 2019 00:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 30 Aug 2019 06:00 173 - - - - - - -
ORANGE 25 30 Aug 2019 12:00 187 - - - - - - -
GREEN 26 30 Aug 2019 18:00 202 - - - - - - -
GREEN 27 31 Aug 2019 00:00 234 - - - - - - -
GREEN 28 31 Aug 2019 06:00 252 1 thousand
- - - - The Bahamas




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2019 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmThe Bahamas1027 
100-250 mmThe Bahamas12326 
50-100 mmUnited States, The Bahamas388382
+
United States383848 
The Bahamas4534 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 24 Aug 2019 12:00 199 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 24 Aug 2019 18:00 108 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 25 Aug 2019 00:00 49 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 25 Aug 2019 06:00 132 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 25 Aug 2019 12:00 166 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 25 Aug 2019 18:00 114 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 26 Aug 2019 00:00 132 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 26 Aug 2019 06:00 85 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 26 Aug 2019 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 26 Aug 2019 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 27 Aug 2019 00:00 336 -
- - - - - Barbados
Blue 12 27 Aug 2019 06:00 69 -
- - - - - Saint Lucia
Blue 13 27 Aug 2019 12:00 121 -
- - - - - Martinique (France)
Blue 14 27 Aug 2019 18:00 146 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 28 Aug 2019 00:00 215 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 28 Aug 2019 06:00 314 -
- - - - - Puerto Rico
Blue 17 28 Aug 2019 12:00 175 -
- - - - - Virgin Islands
Blue 18 28 Aug 2019 18:00 260 -
- - - - - Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
Blue 19 29 Aug 2019 00:00 170 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 29 Aug 2019 06:00 136 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 29 Aug 2019 12:00 174 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 29 Aug 2019 18:00 289 - - - - - - -
Blue 23 30 Aug 2019 00:00 191 - - - - - - -
Blue 24 30 Aug 2019 06:00 229 - - - - - - -
Blue 25 30 Aug 2019 12:00 306 - - - - - - -
Blue 26 30 Aug 2019 18:00 244 - - - - - - -
Blue 27 31 Aug 2019 00:00 185 - - - - - - -
Blue 28 31 Aug 2019 06:00 740 10 thousand
- - - United States, The Bahamas




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Hickory Bluff, United States. This height is estimated for 31 Aug 2019 06:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2019 06:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Hickory Bluff United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Forest Beach United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Hilton Head Island United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Long Cove Plantation United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Seabrook Landing United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Bram Landing United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Palmetto Dunes United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Hilton Head Plantation United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Gator Field United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Parris Island United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Folly Field United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Fort Fremont United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Scott United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Longwood United States  0.2
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Isle of Palms United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Palm Valley Landing United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Jacksonville Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Palm Valley United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Ponte Vedra Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Sawgrass United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Mickler Landing United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Casa Cola United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 South Ponte Vedra Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Black Hammock United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Amelia City United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Fernandina Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Franklintown United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 American Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Mayport United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 East Mayport United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 High Point United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Dungeness United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Stafford United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Greyfield United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Daufuskie Landing United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Cooper River Landing United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Fort Screven United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Tybee Island United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 South Beach Villas United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Greenwood Forest United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Calibogue Cay United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Sea Pines Plantation United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:15 Oak Harbor United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:15 Atlantic Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:15 Saint Simons United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:15 The Meadows United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:15 German Village United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:15 Sea Island United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Sapelo Island United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:15 Raccoon Bluff United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Cedar Reef Villas United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 The Landings United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:15 Seabrook United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:15 Edisto Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:15 Edisto Island United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:15 Freedman United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Araquey United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Villano Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Saint Augustine United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Anastasia United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Saint Augustine Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 09:45 Daytona Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 09:45 Holly Hill United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 09:45 Ellinor Village United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 09:45 Ortona United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 09:45 Seabreeze United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 09:45 South Daytona United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 09:45 Daytona Beach Shores United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 09:45 Allandale United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 09:45 Halifax Estates United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 09:45 Wilbur-by-the-Sea United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 09:45 Isleboro United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 09:45 New Smyrna Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 09:45 Ponce Inlet United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 09:45 Ponce Park United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:00 North Litchfield Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:00 Huntington Marsh United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:00 Oak Hill United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:00 Murrells Inlet United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:00 Inlet Harbor United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:00 Mount Gilead United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:00 Garden City United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:00 Surfside Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:00 Deer Track Villas United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:00 Crystal Lake United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:00 Pebble Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:00 Konig United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:00 Myrtle Ridge United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:00 Plantation Point United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:00 Myrtle Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:00 Ocean Forest United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Butler Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Crescent Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Summer Haven United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 06:00 Marineland United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 11:00 Palm Coast United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 11:00 Bon Terra United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:00 Caines United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:00 Quarantine United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:00 Clambank United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:00 De Bordieu Colony United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:00 Hagley Estates United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:00 True Blue United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:00 Birds Nest United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:00 Chapel Creek United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:00 Pawleys Island United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:00 Parkersville United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:00 Annieville United States  0.1

Calculation folder at this link