Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for DORIAN-19
in Canada, United States, Bahamas
Impact Single TC
HWRF
Impact all weather systems in the area
.

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DORIAN-19 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries United States, The Bahamas
Exposed population 10 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 238 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.1 m (31 Aug 13:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (The Bahamas)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 238 km/h 0.1 m 1238 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 288 km/h 5.7 m 2295 mm 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

288 km/h

Up to 10 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2019 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 4The Bahamas7541 
CAT. 3The Bahamas4483 
CAT. 2The Bahamas385 
CAT. 1The Bahamas1237 
Tropical StormUnited States, The Bahamas53699
+
United States45 
The Bahamas53654 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 24 Aug 2019 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 24 Aug 2019 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 25 Aug 2019 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 25 Aug 2019 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 25 Aug 2019 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 25 Aug 2019 18:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 26 Aug 2019 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 26 Aug 2019 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 26 Aug 2019 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 26 Aug 2019 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 27 Aug 2019 00:00 68 -
- - - - - Barbados
GREEN 12 27 Aug 2019 06:00 76 -
- - - - - Saint Lucia, Barbados
GREEN 13 27 Aug 2019 12:00 76 -
- - - - - Martinique (France)
GREEN 14 27 Aug 2019 18:00 104 -
- - - - - Guadeloupe (France), Dominica
GREEN 15 28 Aug 2019 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 28 Aug 2019 06:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 28 Aug 2019 12:00 115 -
- - - - - British Virgin Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
GREEN 18 28 Aug 2019 18:00 122 -
- - - - - British Virgin Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
GREEN 19 29 Aug 2019 00:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 29 Aug 2019 06:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 29 Aug 2019 12:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 29 Aug 2019 18:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 30 Aug 2019 00:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 30 Aug 2019 06:00 173 - - - - - - -
ORANGE 25 30 Aug 2019 12:00 187 - - - - - - -
GREEN 26 30 Aug 2019 18:00 202 - - - - - - -
GREEN 27 31 Aug 2019 00:00 234 - - - - - - -
GREEN 28 31 Aug 2019 06:00 248 - - - - - - -
GREEN 29 31 Aug 2019 12:00 238 10 thousand
- United States, The Bahamas




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2019 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmThe Bahamas63 
250-500 mmThe Bahamas11334 
100-250 mmThe Bahamas5987 
50-100 mmUnited States, The Bahamas169726
+
United States124606 
The Bahamas45120 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 24 Aug 2019 12:00 199 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 24 Aug 2019 18:00 108 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 25 Aug 2019 00:00 49 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 25 Aug 2019 06:00 132 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 25 Aug 2019 12:00 166 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 25 Aug 2019 18:00 114 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 26 Aug 2019 00:00 132 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 26 Aug 2019 06:00 85 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 26 Aug 2019 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 26 Aug 2019 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 27 Aug 2019 00:00 336 -
- - - - - Barbados
Blue 12 27 Aug 2019 06:00 69 -
- - - - - Saint Lucia
Blue 13 27 Aug 2019 12:00 121 -
- - - - - Martinique (France)
Blue 14 27 Aug 2019 18:00 146 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 28 Aug 2019 00:00 215 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 28 Aug 2019 06:00 314 -
- - - - - Puerto Rico
Blue 17 28 Aug 2019 12:00 175 -
- - - - - Virgin Islands
Blue 18 28 Aug 2019 18:00 260 -
- - - - - Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
Blue 19 29 Aug 2019 00:00 170 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 29 Aug 2019 06:00 136 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 29 Aug 2019 12:00 174 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 29 Aug 2019 18:00 289 - - - - - - -
Blue 23 30 Aug 2019 00:00 191 - - - - - - -
Blue 24 30 Aug 2019 06:00 229 - - - - - - -
Blue 25 30 Aug 2019 12:00 306 - - - - - - -
Blue 26 30 Aug 2019 18:00 244 - - - - - - -
Blue 27 31 Aug 2019 00:00 185 - - - - - - -
Blue 28 31 Aug 2019 06:00 329 - - - - - - -
Blue 29 31 Aug 2019 12:00 1238 20 thousand
- - United States, The Bahamas




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.1m in Fort Screven, United States. This height is estimated for 31 Aug 2019 13:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2019 12:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
31 Aug 2019 13:45 Fort Screven United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 13:45 Tybee Island United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 13:00 Hickory Bluff United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 13:00 Forest Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 13:00 Hilton Head Island United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 13:00 Long Cove Plantation United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 13:00 Seabrook Landing United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 13:00 Bram Landing United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 13:00 Palmetto Dunes United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 13:00 Hilton Head Plantation United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 13:00 Gator Field United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 13:00 Parris Island United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 13:00 Folly Field United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 13:00 Fort Fremont United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 13:00 Scott United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 13:00 Longwood United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 13:30 The Landings United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 14:00 Sapelo Island United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 14:00 Raccoon Bluff United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 13:45 Daufuskie Landing United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 13:45 Cooper River Landing United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 13:45 South Beach Villas United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 13:45 Greenwood Forest United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 13:45 Calibogue Cay United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 13:45 Sea Pines Plantation United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 16:00 Casa Cola United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 16:00 Araquey United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 16:00 South Ponte Vedra Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 16:00 Saint Augustine United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 16:00 Villano Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 16:00 Anastasia United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 16:00 Saint Augustine Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 16:00 Butler Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 14:00 German Village United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 14:00 Sea Island United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 16:00 Summer Haven United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 16:00 Palm Coast United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 16:00 Marineland United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 16:00 Bon Terra United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 16:00 Beverly Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 16:00 Flagler Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 16:00 Mound Grove United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 16:15 Isle of Palms United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 16:15 Palm Valley Landing United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 16:15 Jacksonville Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 16:15 Palm Valley United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 16:15 Ponte Vedra Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 16:15 Sawgrass United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 16:15 Mickler Landing United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 13:15 High Point United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 13:15 Saint Simons United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 13:15 The Meadows United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 16:00 Ormond-by-the-Sea United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 16:00 Daytona Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 16:00 Holly Hill United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 16:00 Ellinor Village United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 16:00 Ortona United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 16:00 Seabreeze United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 16:00 South Daytona United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 16:00 Daytona Beach Shores United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 16:00 Allandale United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 16:00 Halifax Estates United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 16:00 Wilbur-by-the-Sea United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:30 Caines United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:30 Quarantine United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:30 Clambank United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:30 De Bordieu Colony United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:30 Hagley Estates United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:30 True Blue United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:30 Birds Nest United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:30 Chapel Creek United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:30 Pawleys Island United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:30 Parkersville United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:30 Annieville United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:30 North Litchfield Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 16:00 Crescent Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:15 Huntington Marsh United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:15 Oak Hill United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:15 Murrells Inlet United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:15 Inlet Harbor United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 17:45 Black Hammock United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 17:45 Amelia City United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 17:45 Fernandina Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 17:45 Franklintown United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 17:45 American Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 17:45 Mayport United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 17:45 East Mayport United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:00 Mount Gilead United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:00 Garden City United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:00 Surfside Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:00 Deer Track Villas United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:00 Crystal Lake United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:00 Pebble Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:00 Konig United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:00 Myrtle Ridge United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:00 Plantation Point United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:00 Myrtle Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 12:00 Ocean Forest United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 13:15 Cedar Reef Villas United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 17:15 Oak Harbor United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 17:15 Atlantic Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 13:30 Dungeness United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 13:30 Stafford United States  0.1
31 Aug 2019 13:30 Greyfield United States  0.1

Calculation folder at this link