Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for DORIAN-19
in Canada, United States, Bahamas
Impact Single TC
HWRF
Impact all weather systems in the area
.

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DORIAN-19 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries United States, The Bahamas
Exposed population 170 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 256 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (01 Sep 03:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (The Bahamas)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 256 km/h 0.2 m 1373 mm 1.5
HWRF Overall 288 km/h 5.7 m 2295 mm 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

288 km/h

Up to 170 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 01 Sep 2019 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 4The Bahamas5874 
CAT. 3The Bahamas10191 
CAT. 2United States, The Bahamas11653
+
United States47 
The Bahamas11606 
CAT. 1United States, The Bahamas142919
+
United States109925 
The Bahamas32994 
Tropical StormUnited States, The Bahamas2121746
+
United States2110258 
The Bahamas11488 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 24 Aug 2019 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 24 Aug 2019 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 25 Aug 2019 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 25 Aug 2019 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 25 Aug 2019 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 25 Aug 2019 18:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 26 Aug 2019 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 26 Aug 2019 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 26 Aug 2019 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 26 Aug 2019 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 27 Aug 2019 00:00 68 -
- - - - - Barbados
GREEN 12 27 Aug 2019 06:00 76 -
- - - - - Saint Lucia, Barbados
GREEN 13 27 Aug 2019 12:00 76 -
- - - - - Martinique (France)
GREEN 14 27 Aug 2019 18:00 104 -
- - - - - Guadeloupe (France), Dominica
GREEN 15 28 Aug 2019 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 28 Aug 2019 06:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 28 Aug 2019 12:00 115 -
- - - - - British Virgin Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
GREEN 18 28 Aug 2019 18:00 122 -
- - - - - British Virgin Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
GREEN 19 29 Aug 2019 00:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 29 Aug 2019 06:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 29 Aug 2019 12:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 29 Aug 2019 18:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 30 Aug 2019 00:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 30 Aug 2019 06:00 173 - - - - - - -
ORANGE 25 30 Aug 2019 12:00 187 - - - - - - -
GREEN 26 30 Aug 2019 18:00 202 - - - - - - -
GREEN 27 31 Aug 2019 00:00 234 - - - - - - -
GREEN 28 31 Aug 2019 06:00 248 - - - - - - -
GREEN 29 31 Aug 2019 12:00 230 - - - - - - -
GREEN 30 31 Aug 2019 18:00 252 - - - - - - -
ORANGE 31 01 Sep 2019 00:00 256 170 thousand
- United States, The Bahamas




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 01 Sep 2019 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
750-1000 mmThe Bahamas63 
500-750 mmThe Bahamas347 
250-500 mmThe Bahamas57625 
100-250 mmUnited States, The Bahamas794371
+
United States788763 
The Bahamas5608 
50-100 mmUnited States, The Bahamas1836134
+
United States1833554 
The Bahamas2580 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 24 Aug 2019 12:00 199 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 24 Aug 2019 18:00 108 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 25 Aug 2019 00:00 49 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 25 Aug 2019 06:00 132 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 25 Aug 2019 12:00 166 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 25 Aug 2019 18:00 114 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 26 Aug 2019 00:00 132 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 26 Aug 2019 06:00 85 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 26 Aug 2019 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 26 Aug 2019 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 27 Aug 2019 00:00 336 -
- - - - - Barbados
Blue 12 27 Aug 2019 06:00 69 -
- - - - - Saint Lucia
Blue 13 27 Aug 2019 12:00 121 -
- - - - - Martinique (France)
Blue 14 27 Aug 2019 18:00 146 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 28 Aug 2019 00:00 215 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 28 Aug 2019 06:00 314 -
- - - - - Puerto Rico
Blue 17 28 Aug 2019 12:00 175 -
- - - - - Virgin Islands
Blue 18 28 Aug 2019 18:00 260 -
- - - - - Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
Blue 19 29 Aug 2019 00:00 170 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 29 Aug 2019 06:00 136 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 29 Aug 2019 12:00 174 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 29 Aug 2019 18:00 289 - - - - - - -
Blue 23 30 Aug 2019 00:00 191 - - - - - - -
Blue 24 30 Aug 2019 06:00 229 - - - - - - -
Blue 25 30 Aug 2019 12:00 306 - - - - - - -
Blue 26 30 Aug 2019 18:00 244 - - - - - - -
Blue 27 31 Aug 2019 00:00 185 - - - - - - -
Blue 28 31 Aug 2019 06:00 329 - - - - - - -
Blue 29 31 Aug 2019 12:00 316 - - - - - - -
Blue 30 31 Aug 2019 18:00 381 - - - - - - -
Blue 31 01 Sep 2019 00:00 1373 850 thousand
- United States, The Bahamas




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in The Bluff, The Bahamas. This height is estimated for 01 Sep 2019 03:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 01 Sep 2019 00:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
01 Sep 2019 03:00 The Bluff The Bahamas  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:00 Spanish Wells The Bahamas  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:00 Lower Bogue The Bahamas  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:00 Upper Bogue The Bahamas  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:00 Dunmore Town The Bahamas  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:00 Gregory Town The Bahamas  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:00 Alice Town The Bahamas  0.2
01 Sep 2019 01:15 Great Guana Cay The Bahamas  0.2
01 Sep 2019 04:30 Marsh Harbour The Bahamas  0.2
01 Sep 2019 04:30 Wilson City The Bahamas  0.2
01 Sep 2019 04:30 Hope Town The Bahamas  0.2
01 Sep 2019 02:30 South Palmetto Point The Bahamas  0.2
01 Sep 2019 02:30 Rock Sound The Bahamas  0.2
01 Sep 2019 02:30 North Palmetto Point The Bahamas  0.2
01 Sep 2019 02:30 Savannah Sound The Bahamas  0.2
01 Sep 2019 05:00 High Point United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 05:15 Black Hammock United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 05:15 Amelia City United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 05:15 Fernandina Beach United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 05:15 Franklintown United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 05:15 American Beach United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 05:15 Mayport United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 05:15 East Mayport United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:45 Butler Beach United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:45 Crescent Beach United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:45 Summer Haven United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:45 Palm Coast United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:45 Marineland United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:45 Bon Terra United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:45 Beverly Beach United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 05:00 Casa Cola United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 05:00 Araquey United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 05:00 South Ponte Vedra Beach United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 05:00 Saint Augustine United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 05:00 Villano Beach United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 05:00 Anastasia United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 05:00 Saint Augustine Beach United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:00 Mound Grove United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:00 Ormond-by-the-Sea United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:00 Daytona Beach United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:00 Holly Hill United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:00 Ellinor Village United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:00 Ortona United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:00 Seabreeze United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:00 South Daytona United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:00 Daytona Beach Shores United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:00 Allandale United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:00 Halifax Estates United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:00 Wilbur-by-the-Sea United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:15 Flagler Beach United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 04:45 Isle of Palms United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 04:45 Oak Harbor United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 04:45 Atlantic Beach United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 04:45 Jacksonville Beach United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 04:45 Ponte Vedra Beach United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 04:45 Palm Valley Landing United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 04:45 Palm Valley United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 04:45 Sawgrass United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 00:30 Saint Simons United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 00:30 The Meadows United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 05:45 Dungeness United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 05:45 Stafford United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 05:45 Greyfield United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 00:45 German Village United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 00:45 Sea Island United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:45 North Litchfield Beach United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:45 Huntington Marsh United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:45 Oak Hill United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:45 Murrells Inlet United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:45 Inlet Harbor United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:45 Mount Gilead United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:45 Garden City United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:45 Surfside Beach United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:45 Deer Track Villas United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:45 Crystal Lake United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:45 Pebble Beach United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:45 Konig United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:45 Myrtle Ridge United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:45 Plantation Point United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:45 Myrtle Beach United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:45 Ocean Forest United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 00:45 Sapelo Island United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 00:45 Raccoon Bluff United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 04:45 Mickler Landing United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 01:15 The Lot The Bahamas  0.2
01 Sep 2019 01:15 Zion Hill The Bahamas  0.2
01 Sep 2019 01:15 Thurston Hill The Bahamas  0.2
01 Sep 2019 01:15 Cove Settlement The Bahamas  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:45 Isleboro United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:45 New Smyrna Beach United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:45 Ponce Inlet United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 03:45 Ponce Park United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 02:45 Bethune Beach United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 02:45 Eldora United States  0.2
01 Sep 2019 02:00 Bolondron Cuba  0.1
01 Sep 2019 02:00 Julian Cuba  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:30 James Pt The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:30 Governors Harbour The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:30 Las Tumbas Cuba  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:15 Fort Screven United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:15 Tybee Island United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 06:00 High Rocks The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 04:00 Caines United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 04:00 Quarantine United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 04:00 Clambank United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 04:00 De Bordieu Colony United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 04:00 Hagley Estates United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 04:00 True Blue United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 04:00 Birds Nest United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 04:00 Chapel Creek United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 04:00 Pawleys Island United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 04:00 Parkersville United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 04:00 Annieville United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 02:30 La Bajada Cuba  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:45 Cedar Harbor The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:45 Cooper's Town The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:15 Daufuskie Landing United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:15 Cooper River Landing United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:15 South Beach Villas United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:15 Greenwood Forest United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:15 Calibogue Cay United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:15 Sea Pines Plantation United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:15 Forest Beach United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 02:15 Melbourne Beach United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 02:15 Indialantic United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 02:15 Valkaria United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 02:15 Grant United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 02:15 Melbourne Shores United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 02:15 Evans Pines United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 02:15 Ballard Pines United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 02:15 Cummings United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 02:15 Orchid United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:15 The Landings United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 02:15 Tropic United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 02:15 Cocoa Beach United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 02:15 South Patrick Shores United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 02:15 Satellite Beach United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 02:15 Indian Harbour Beach United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 02:15 Canova Beach United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 02:00 Los Arroyos Cuba  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:30 Crossing Rocks The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:30 Cherokee Sound The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:45 Norman Castle The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:45 Blackwood Village The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:30 Hickory Bluff United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:30 Hilton Head Island United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:30 Long Cove Plantation United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:30 Seabrook Landing United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:30 Bram Landing United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:30 Palmetto Dunes United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:30 Hilton Head Plantation United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:30 Gator Field United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:30 Parris Island United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:30 Folly Field United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:30 Fort Fremont United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:30 Scott United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:30 Longwood United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:15 Tarpum Head The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 01:00 New Town The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 01:00 Staniard Creek The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:15 Waterford The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:15 Weymes Bight The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 02:15 Cape Canaveral United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:15 North End Pt The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:15 Arthurs Town The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:15 John Millars The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:15 Millars The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 00:15 Bannerman Town The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 05:15 Colebrooke Dale The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 03:00 Alexander The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 03:00 Rolleville The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 03:00 Stevenston The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 05:15 Cedar Reef Villas United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 03:30 Seabrook United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 03:30 Edisto Beach United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 03:30 Edisto Island United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 03:30 Freedman United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 04:00 Arcadian Shores United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 04:00 Briarcliffe Acres United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 04:00 Atlantic Beach United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 04:00 Ingram Beach United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 04:00 North Myrtle Beach United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 04:00 Cherry Grove Beach United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 03:00 Anderson The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 03:00 Simms The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 03:00 Millers The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 06:00 Yent Place United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 06:00 Carrabelle United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 06:00 Lanark Village United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 02:15 Wabasso United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 02:15 Indian River Shores United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 02:15 Riomar United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 06:00 Eastpoint United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 02:00 Nevins United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 02:00 South Beach United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 01:30 Nicolls Town The Bahamas  0.1
01 Sep 2019 04:00 Nixons Crossroads United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 04:00 Creekside United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 04:00 Little River United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 04:00 Calabash United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 04:00 Shady Forest United States  0.1
01 Sep 2019 04:00 Sunset Beach United States  0.1

Calculation folder at this link