Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for DORIAN-19
in Canada, United States, Bahamas
Impact Single TC
HWRF
Impact all weather systems in the area
.

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DORIAN-19 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries United States, The Bahamas
Exposed population 70 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 184 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.8 m (03 Sep 13:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (The Bahamas)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 184 km/h 1.8 m 527 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 288 km/h 5.7 m 2295 mm 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

288 km/h

Up to 70 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 2The Bahamas1656 
CAT. 1United States, The Bahamas65149
+
United States18154 
The Bahamas46995 
Tropical StormUnited States, The Bahamas5780307
+
United States5747574 
The Bahamas32733 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 24 Aug 2019 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 24 Aug 2019 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 25 Aug 2019 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 25 Aug 2019 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 25 Aug 2019 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 25 Aug 2019 18:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 26 Aug 2019 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 26 Aug 2019 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 26 Aug 2019 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 26 Aug 2019 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 27 Aug 2019 00:00 68 -
- - - - - Barbados
GREEN 12 27 Aug 2019 06:00 76 -
- - - - - Saint Lucia, Barbados
GREEN 13 27 Aug 2019 12:00 76 -
- - - - - Martinique (France)
GREEN 14 27 Aug 2019 18:00 104 -
- - - - - Guadeloupe (France), Dominica
GREEN 15 28 Aug 2019 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 28 Aug 2019 06:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 28 Aug 2019 12:00 115 -
- - - - - British Virgin Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
GREEN 18 28 Aug 2019 18:00 122 -
- - - - - British Virgin Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
GREEN 19 29 Aug 2019 00:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 29 Aug 2019 06:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 29 Aug 2019 12:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 29 Aug 2019 18:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 30 Aug 2019 00:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 30 Aug 2019 06:00 173 - - - - - - -
ORANGE 25 30 Aug 2019 12:00 187 - - - - - - -
GREEN 26 30 Aug 2019 18:00 202 - - - - - - -
GREEN 27 31 Aug 2019 00:00 234 - - - - - - -
GREEN 28 31 Aug 2019 06:00 248 - - - - - - -
GREEN 29 31 Aug 2019 12:00 230 - - - - - - -
GREEN 30 31 Aug 2019 18:00 252 - - - - - - -
ORANGE 31 01 Sep 2019 00:00 256 - - - - - - -
ORANGE 32 01 Sep 2019 06:00 263 -
- - - - - The Bahamas
ORANGE 33 01 Sep 2019 12:00 248 10 thousand
- The Bahamas
ORANGE 34 01 Sep 2019 18:00 288 20 thousand
The Bahamas
ORANGE 35 02 Sep 2019 00:00 284 60 thousand
The Bahamas
ORANGE 36 02 Sep 2019 06:00 274 50 thousand
The Bahamas
ORANGE 37 02 Sep 2019 12:00 259 50 thousand
The Bahamas
ORANGE 38 02 Sep 2019 18:00 230 50 thousand
- The Bahamas
ORANGE 39 03 Sep 2019 00:00 212 50 thousand
- The Bahamas, United States
GREEN 40 03 Sep 2019 06:00 205 50 thousand
- - The Bahamas
GREEN 41 03 Sep 2019 12:00 184 70 thousand
- - - United States, The Bahamas




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmUnited States431796 
100-250 mmUnited States, The Bahamas3767749
+
United States3763702 
The Bahamas4047 
50-100 mmUnited States, The Bahamas3141210
+
United States3096556 
The Bahamas44654 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 24 Aug 2019 12:00 199 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 24 Aug 2019 18:00 108 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 25 Aug 2019 00:00 49 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 25 Aug 2019 06:00 132 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 25 Aug 2019 12:00 166 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 25 Aug 2019 18:00 114 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 26 Aug 2019 00:00 132 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 26 Aug 2019 06:00 85 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 26 Aug 2019 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 26 Aug 2019 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 27 Aug 2019 00:00 336 -
- - - - - Barbados
Blue 12 27 Aug 2019 06:00 69 -
- - - - - Saint Lucia
Blue 13 27 Aug 2019 12:00 121 -
- - - - - Martinique (France)
Blue 14 27 Aug 2019 18:00 146 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 28 Aug 2019 00:00 215 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 28 Aug 2019 06:00 314 -
- - - - - Puerto Rico
Blue 17 28 Aug 2019 12:00 175 -
- - - - - Virgin Islands
Blue 18 28 Aug 2019 18:00 260 -
- - - - - Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
Blue 19 29 Aug 2019 00:00 170 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 29 Aug 2019 06:00 136 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 29 Aug 2019 12:00 174 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 29 Aug 2019 18:00 289 - - - - - - -
Blue 23 30 Aug 2019 00:00 191 - - - - - - -
Blue 24 30 Aug 2019 06:00 229 - - - - - - -
Blue 25 30 Aug 2019 12:00 306 - - - - - - -
Blue 26 30 Aug 2019 18:00 244 - - - - - - -
Blue 27 31 Aug 2019 00:00 185 - - - - - - -
Blue 28 31 Aug 2019 06:00 329 - - - - - - -
Blue 29 31 Aug 2019 12:00 316 - - - - - - -
Blue 30 31 Aug 2019 18:00 381 - - - - - - -
Blue 31 01 Sep 2019 00:00 307 - - - - - - -
Blue 32 01 Sep 2019 06:00 381 - - - - - - -
Blue 33 01 Sep 2019 12:00 378 1 thousand
- - - - The Bahamas
Blue 34 01 Sep 2019 18:00 389 7 thousand
- - - The Bahamas, United States
Blue 35 02 Sep 2019 00:00 501 4 thousand
- - - The Bahamas
Blue 36 02 Sep 2019 06:00 571 10 thousand
- - - The Bahamas
Blue 37 02 Sep 2019 12:00 567 2 thousand
- - - The Bahamas
Blue 38 02 Sep 2019 18:00 384 2 thousand
- - - The Bahamas
Blue 39 03 Sep 2019 00:00 297 2 thousand
- - - The Bahamas
Blue 40 03 Sep 2019 06:00 410 1 thousand
- - - - The Bahamas
Blue 41 03 Sep 2019 12:00 527 4.2 million
- - - United States, The Bahamas




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

1.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.8m in Hawksbill, The Bahamas. This height is estimated for 03 Sep 2019 13:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 03 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
03 Sep 2019 13:00 Hawksbill The Bahamas  1.8
03 Sep 2019 13:00 Freeport The Bahamas  1.8
03 Sep 2019 12:00 Crown Haven The Bahamas  0.7
03 Sep 2019 12:00 Fox Town The Bahamas  0.7
03 Sep 2019 12:15 Hope Estate The Bahamas  0.5
03 Sep 2019 12:00 Cedar Harbor The Bahamas  0.5
03 Sep 2019 16:00 Melbourne Beach United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 16:00 Indialantic United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 16:00 Valkaria United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 16:00 Grant United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 16:00 Melbourne Shores United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 16:00 Evans Pines United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 16:00 Ballard Pines United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 16:00 Cummings United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 16:00 Orchid United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 15:30 Wabasso United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 15:30 Nevins United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 15:30 Indian River Shores United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 15:30 Riomar United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 15:30 Indrio United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 15:30 South Beach United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 15:30 Queens Cove United States  0.4
03 Sep 2019 16:45 Saint Lucie United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 16:45 Ankona United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 16:45 Walton United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 16:45 Eden United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 16:45 Jensen Beach United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 16:45 Hutchinson Island South United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 16:45 Sewall's Point United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 16:45 Port Sewall United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 14:30 Port Salerno United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 14:30 Gomez United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 14:30 Hobe Sound United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 14:30 Jupiter Island United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 16:45 Tropic United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 16:45 Indian Harbour Beach United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 16:45 Canova Beach United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 14:30 Daytona Beach United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 14:30 Holly Hill United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 14:30 Ellinor Village United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 14:30 Ortona United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 14:30 Seabreeze United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 14:30 South Daytona United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 14:30 Daytona Beach Shores United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 14:30 Allandale United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 14:30 Halifax Estates United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 14:30 Wilbur-by-the-Sea United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 14:30 Isleboro United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 14:30 New Smyrna Beach United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 14:30 Ponce Inlet United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 14:30 Ponce Park United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 16:00 Cocoa Beach United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 16:00 South Patrick Shores United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 16:00 Satellite Beach United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 16:45 Bethune Beach United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 16:45 Eldora United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 17:45 Flagler Beach United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 17:45 Mound Grove United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 17:45 Ormond-by-the-Sea United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 16:00 Beverly Beach United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 16:00 Cape Canaveral United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 14:15 Jupiter United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 14:15 Tequesta United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 14:15 Selhaven United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 14:15 Blowing Rocks United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 14:15 Jupiter Inlet Colony United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 14:15 Juno Ridge United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 14:15 Juno Beach United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 17:15 Mickler Landing United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 17:15 Casa Cola United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 17:15 Araquey United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 17:15 South Ponte Vedra Beach United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 17:15 Saint Augustine United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 17:15 Villano Beach United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 17:15 Anastasia United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 17:15 Saint Augustine Beach United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 14:45 Butler Beach United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 14:45 Crescent Beach United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 14:45 Summer Haven United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 14:45 Palm Coast United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 14:45 Marineland United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 14:45 Bon Terra United States  0.3
03 Sep 2019 15:15 Gregory Town The Bahamas  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:15 Alice Town The Bahamas  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:15 James Pt The Bahamas  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:15 Governors Harbour The Bahamas  0.2
03 Sep 2019 17:30 Isle of Palms United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 17:30 Palm Valley Landing United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 17:30 Jacksonville Beach United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 17:30 Palm Valley United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 17:30 Ponte Vedra Beach United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 17:30 Sawgrass United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:00 Mayport United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:00 Oak Harbor United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:00 East Mayport United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:00 Atlantic Beach United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:15 Black Hammock United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:15 Amelia City United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:15 Fernandina Beach United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:15 Franklintown United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:15 American Beach United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 12:00 High Rocks The Bahamas  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:45 North End Pt The Bahamas  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:45 Arthurs Town The Bahamas  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:45 The Lot The Bahamas  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:45 Zion Hill The Bahamas  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:45 Thurston Hill The Bahamas  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:45 Cove Settlement The Bahamas  0.2
03 Sep 2019 17:00 Playa Caimito Cuba  0.2
03 Sep 2019 17:00 Playa de Tasajera Cuba  0.2
03 Sep 2019 17:00 Caserio Pescadores Cuba  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:30 High Point United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:30 Saint Simons United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:30 The Meadows United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Lake Clarke Shores United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Glen Ridge United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Mangonia Park United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Cloud Lake United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Lake Park United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Riviera Beach United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 12:30 North Palm Beach United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 12:30 West Palm Beach United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Palm Beach United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Palm Beach Shores United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 12:15 Pelican Point The Bahamas  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:15 Dungeness United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:15 Stafford United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:15 Greyfield United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:30 German Village United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:30 Sea Island United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Lantana United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 12:30 South Palm Beach United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:30 Sapelo Island United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:30 Raccoon Bluff United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:45 Hickory Bluff United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:45 Forest Beach United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:45 Hilton Head Island United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:45 Long Cove Plantation United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:45 Seabrook Landing United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:45 Bram Landing United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:45 Palmetto Dunes United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:45 Hilton Head Plantation United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:45 Gator Field United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:45 Parris Island United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:45 Folly Field United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:45 Fort Fremont United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:45 Scott United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:45 Longwood United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Delray Shores United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Delray Beach United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Chapel Hill United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Tropic Isle United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Gulf Stream United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Hypoluxo United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Boynton Beach United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Briney Breezes United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Ocean Ridge United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Manalapan United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Yamato United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Blue Inlet United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Highland Beach United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Kendall Green United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Pompano Beach Highlands United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Arlington Park United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Boca Raton United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Floresta United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Country Club Isles United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Little Harbor on the Hillsboro United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Deerfield Beach United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Hillsboro Beach United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:30 Daufuskie Landing United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:30 Cooper River Landing United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:30 Fort Screven United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:30 Tybee Island United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:30 South Beach Villas United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:30 Greenwood Forest United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:30 Calibogue Cay United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:30 Sea Pines Plantation United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 15:15 The Landings United States  0.2
03 Sep 2019 12:00 Holmes Rock The Bahamas  0.2
03 Sep 2019 12:00 Hunters The Bahamas  0.2
03 Sep 2019 12:00 Southwest Point The Bahamas  0.1
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Sea Ranch Lakes United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 15:30 Seabrook United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 15:30 Edisto Beach United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 15:30 Edisto Island United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 15:30 Freedman United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Ojus United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 12:30 San Souci Estates United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 12:30 North Bay United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Dania United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Hallandale United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Wilton Manors United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Indian Creek United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Bay Harbor Islands United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Aventura United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Bal Harbour United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Surfside United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Sunny Isles United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Atlantic Heights United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Golden Beach United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Beverley Beach United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Bay Harbor United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Harbor Beach United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Birch Ocean Front United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 12:30 North Miami United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 12:30 North Miami Beach United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Coral Heights United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 12:30 Cypress Harbor United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 12:45 Hard Bargain The Bahamas  0.1
03 Sep 2019 16:45 Cedar Reef Villas United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 13:15 Bullock Harbour The Bahamas  0.1
03 Sep 2019 12:45 Bay Heights United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 12:45 Liberty Square United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 12:45 El Portal United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 12:45 Bayshore United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 12:45 Biscayne Park United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 12:45 Miami Shores United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 12:45 Key Biscayne United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 12:45 Fisher Island United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 12:45 Miami Beach United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 15:15 Oakgrove United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 15:15 Rockville United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 15:15 Seabrook Island United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 15:15 Kiawah Island United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 12:45 The Keyhole United States  0.1

Calculation folder at this link