Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for DORIAN-19
in Canada, United States, Bahamas
Impact Single TC
HWRF
Impact all weather systems in the area
.

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DORIAN-19 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Canada, United States
Exposed population 90 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 173 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.0 m (04 Sep 16:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (The Bahamas)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 173 km/h 1.0 m 517 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 288 km/h 5.7 m 2295 mm 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

288 km/h

Up to 90 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1United States94126 
Tropical StormCanada, United States7074974
+
Canada421 
United States7074553 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 24 Aug 2019 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 24 Aug 2019 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 25 Aug 2019 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 25 Aug 2019 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 25 Aug 2019 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 25 Aug 2019 18:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 26 Aug 2019 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 26 Aug 2019 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 26 Aug 2019 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 26 Aug 2019 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 27 Aug 2019 00:00 68 -
- - - - - Barbados
GREEN 12 27 Aug 2019 06:00 76 -
- - - - - Saint Lucia, Barbados
GREEN 13 27 Aug 2019 12:00 76 -
- - - - - Martinique (France)
GREEN 14 27 Aug 2019 18:00 104 -
- - - - - Guadeloupe (France), Dominica
GREEN 15 28 Aug 2019 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 28 Aug 2019 06:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 28 Aug 2019 12:00 115 -
- - - - - British Virgin Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
GREEN 18 28 Aug 2019 18:00 122 -
- - - - - British Virgin Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
GREEN 19 29 Aug 2019 00:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 29 Aug 2019 06:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 29 Aug 2019 12:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 29 Aug 2019 18:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 30 Aug 2019 00:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 30 Aug 2019 06:00 173 - - - - - - -
ORANGE 25 30 Aug 2019 12:00 187 - - - - - - -
GREEN 26 30 Aug 2019 18:00 202 - - - - - - -
GREEN 27 31 Aug 2019 00:00 234 - - - - - - -
GREEN 28 31 Aug 2019 06:00 248 - - - - - - -
GREEN 29 31 Aug 2019 12:00 230 - - - - - - -
GREEN 30 31 Aug 2019 18:00 252 - - - - - - -
ORANGE 31 01 Sep 2019 00:00 256 - - - - - - -
ORANGE 32 01 Sep 2019 06:00 263 -
- - - - - The Bahamas
ORANGE 33 01 Sep 2019 12:00 248 10 thousand
- The Bahamas
ORANGE 34 01 Sep 2019 18:00 288 20 thousand
The Bahamas
ORANGE 35 02 Sep 2019 00:00 284 60 thousand
The Bahamas
ORANGE 36 02 Sep 2019 06:00 274 50 thousand
The Bahamas
ORANGE 37 02 Sep 2019 12:00 259 50 thousand
The Bahamas
ORANGE 38 02 Sep 2019 18:00 230 50 thousand
- The Bahamas
ORANGE 39 03 Sep 2019 00:00 212 50 thousand
- The Bahamas, United States
GREEN 40 03 Sep 2019 06:00 205 50 thousand
- - The Bahamas
GREEN 41 03 Sep 2019 12:00 180 50 thousand
- - - United States, The Bahamas
GREEN 42 03 Sep 2019 18:00 173 5 thousand
- - - - United States, The Bahamas
GREEN 43 04 Sep 2019 00:00 169 Few people
- - - - United States, The Bahamas
GREEN 44 04 Sep 2019 06:00 169 -
- - - - - United States, The Bahamas
GREEN 45 04 Sep 2019 12:00 173 90 thousand
- - - - Canada, United States




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmUnited States10969 
250-500 mmUnited States1620539 
100-250 mmUnited States4705617 
50-100 mmUnited States2436366 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 24 Aug 2019 12:00 199 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 24 Aug 2019 18:00 108 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 25 Aug 2019 00:00 49 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 25 Aug 2019 06:00 132 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 25 Aug 2019 12:00 166 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 25 Aug 2019 18:00 114 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 26 Aug 2019 00:00 132 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 26 Aug 2019 06:00 85 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 26 Aug 2019 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 26 Aug 2019 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 27 Aug 2019 00:00 336 -
- - - - - Barbados
Blue 12 27 Aug 2019 06:00 69 -
- - - - - Saint Lucia
Blue 13 27 Aug 2019 12:00 121 -
- - - - - Martinique (France)
Blue 14 27 Aug 2019 18:00 146 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 28 Aug 2019 00:00 215 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 28 Aug 2019 06:00 314 -
- - - - - Puerto Rico
Blue 17 28 Aug 2019 12:00 175 -
- - - - - Virgin Islands
Blue 18 28 Aug 2019 18:00 260 -
- - - - - Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
Blue 19 29 Aug 2019 00:00 170 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 29 Aug 2019 06:00 136 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 29 Aug 2019 12:00 174 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 29 Aug 2019 18:00 289 - - - - - - -
Blue 23 30 Aug 2019 00:00 191 - - - - - - -
Blue 24 30 Aug 2019 06:00 229 - - - - - - -
Blue 25 30 Aug 2019 12:00 306 - - - - - - -
Blue 26 30 Aug 2019 18:00 244 - - - - - - -
Blue 27 31 Aug 2019 00:00 185 - - - - - - -
Blue 28 31 Aug 2019 06:00 329 - - - - - - -
Blue 29 31 Aug 2019 12:00 316 - - - - - - -
Blue 30 31 Aug 2019 18:00 381 - - - - - - -
Blue 31 01 Sep 2019 00:00 307 - - - - - - -
Blue 32 01 Sep 2019 06:00 381 - - - - - - -
Blue 33 01 Sep 2019 12:00 378 1 thousand
- - - - The Bahamas
Blue 34 01 Sep 2019 18:00 389 7 thousand
- - - The Bahamas, United States
Blue 35 02 Sep 2019 00:00 501 4 thousand
- - - The Bahamas
Blue 36 02 Sep 2019 06:00 571 10 thousand
- - - The Bahamas
Blue 37 02 Sep 2019 12:00 567 2 thousand
- - - The Bahamas
Blue 38 02 Sep 2019 18:00 384 2 thousand
- - - The Bahamas
Blue 39 03 Sep 2019 00:00 297 2 thousand
- - - The Bahamas
Blue 40 03 Sep 2019 06:00 410 1 thousand
- - - - The Bahamas
Blue 41 03 Sep 2019 12:00 213 -
- - - - - The Bahamas
Blue 42 03 Sep 2019 18:00 183 -
- - - - - The Bahamas
Blue 43 04 Sep 2019 00:00 130 - - - - - - -
Blue 44 04 Sep 2019 06:00 140 - - - - - - -
Blue 45 04 Sep 2019 12:00 517 6.3 million
- - United States




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.0m in Mickler Landing, United States. This height is estimated for 04 Sep 2019 16:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 04 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
04 Sep 2019 16:15 Mickler Landing United States  1.0
04 Sep 2019 16:15 Casa Cola United States  1.0
04 Sep 2019 16:15 Araquey United States  1.0
04 Sep 2019 16:15 South Ponte Vedra Beach United States  1.0
04 Sep 2019 16:15 Saint Augustine United States  1.0
04 Sep 2019 16:15 Villano Beach United States  1.0
04 Sep 2019 16:15 Anastasia United States  1.0
04 Sep 2019 16:15 Saint Augustine Beach United States  1.0
04 Sep 2019 16:00 Isle of Palms United States  1.0
04 Sep 2019 16:00 Palm Valley Landing United States  1.0
04 Sep 2019 16:00 Jacksonville Beach United States  1.0
04 Sep 2019 16:00 Palm Valley United States  1.0
04 Sep 2019 16:00 Ponte Vedra Beach United States  1.0
04 Sep 2019 16:00 Sawgrass United States  1.0
04 Sep 2019 16:45 Butler Beach United States  1.0
04 Sep 2019 17:45 Black Hammock United States  1.0
04 Sep 2019 17:45 Amelia City United States  1.0
04 Sep 2019 17:45 Fernandina Beach United States  1.0
04 Sep 2019 17:45 Franklintown United States  1.0
04 Sep 2019 17:45 American Beach United States  1.0
04 Sep 2019 17:45 Mayport United States  1.0
04 Sep 2019 17:45 East Mayport United States  1.0
04 Sep 2019 17:15 Oak Harbor United States  1.0
04 Sep 2019 17:15 Atlantic Beach United States  1.0
04 Sep 2019 16:00 Crescent Beach United States  1.0
04 Sep 2019 16:00 Summer Haven United States  1.0
04 Sep 2019 16:00 Palm Coast United States  1.0
04 Sep 2019 16:00 Marineland United States  1.0
04 Sep 2019 16:00 Bon Terra United States  1.0
04 Sep 2019 16:00 Beverly Beach United States  1.0
04 Sep 2019 15:45 Flagler Beach United States  0.9
04 Sep 2019 18:00 Dungeness United States  0.9
04 Sep 2019 18:00 Stafford United States  0.9
04 Sep 2019 18:00 Greyfield United States  0.9
04 Sep 2019 16:00 Mound Grove United States  0.9
04 Sep 2019 18:00 High Point United States  0.8
04 Sep 2019 18:00 Saint Simons United States  0.8
04 Sep 2019 18:00 The Meadows United States  0.8
04 Sep 2019 15:45 Ormond-by-the-Sea United States  0.8
04 Sep 2019 17:45 German Village United States  0.8
04 Sep 2019 17:45 Sea Island United States  0.8
04 Sep 2019 17:45 Sapelo Island United States  0.7
04 Sep 2019 15:45 Daytona Beach United States  0.7
04 Sep 2019 15:45 Holly Hill United States  0.7
04 Sep 2019 15:45 Ellinor Village United States  0.7
04 Sep 2019 15:45 Ortona United States  0.7
04 Sep 2019 17:45 Raccoon Bluff United States  0.7
04 Sep 2019 16:15 Seabreeze United States  0.7
04 Sep 2019 16:15 Daytona Beach Shores United States  0.7
04 Sep 2019 16:00 South Daytona United States  0.7
04 Sep 2019 16:00 Allandale United States  0.7
04 Sep 2019 16:00 Halifax Estates United States  0.7
04 Sep 2019 16:00 Wilbur-by-the-Sea United States  0.7
04 Sep 2019 15:30 Isleboro United States  0.6
04 Sep 2019 15:30 New Smyrna Beach United States  0.6
04 Sep 2019 15:30 Ponce Inlet United States  0.6
04 Sep 2019 15:30 Ponce Park United States  0.6
04 Sep 2019 14:15 The Landings United States  0.6
04 Sep 2019 15:30 Bethune Beach United States  0.6
04 Sep 2019 15:30 Eldora United States  0.6
04 Sep 2019 18:00 Fort Screven United States  0.5
04 Sep 2019 18:00 Tybee Island United States  0.5
04 Sep 2019 14:30 Daufuskie Landing United States  0.5
04 Sep 2019 14:30 Cooper River Landing United States  0.5
04 Sep 2019 14:30 South Beach Villas United States  0.5
04 Sep 2019 14:30 Greenwood Forest United States  0.5
04 Sep 2019 14:30 Calibogue Cay United States  0.5
04 Sep 2019 14:30 Sea Pines Plantation United States  0.5
04 Sep 2019 14:30 Forest Beach United States  0.5
04 Sep 2019 16:45 Hickory Bluff United States  0.5
04 Sep 2019 16:45 Hilton Head Island United States  0.5
04 Sep 2019 16:45 Long Cove Plantation United States  0.5
04 Sep 2019 16:45 Seabrook Landing United States  0.5
04 Sep 2019 16:45 Bram Landing United States  0.5
04 Sep 2019 16:45 Palmetto Dunes United States  0.5
04 Sep 2019 16:45 Hilton Head Plantation United States  0.5
04 Sep 2019 16:45 Gator Field United States  0.5
04 Sep 2019 16:45 Parris Island United States  0.5
04 Sep 2019 16:45 Folly Field United States  0.5
04 Sep 2019 16:45 Fort Fremont United States  0.5
04 Sep 2019 16:45 Scott United States  0.5
04 Sep 2019 16:45 Longwood United States  0.5
04 Sep 2019 14:30 Cedar Reef Villas United States  0.4
04 Sep 2019 14:30 Seabrook United States  0.4
04 Sep 2019 14:30 Edisto Beach United States  0.4
04 Sep 2019 14:30 Edisto Island United States  0.4
04 Sep 2019 14:30 Freedman United States  0.4
04 Sep 2019 14:15 Oakgrove United States  0.3
04 Sep 2019 14:15 Rockville United States  0.3
04 Sep 2019 14:15 Seabrook Island United States  0.3
04 Sep 2019 14:15 Kiawah Island United States  0.3
04 Sep 2019 16:15 Legareville United States  0.3
04 Sep 2019 16:15 Folly Beach United States  0.3
04 Sep 2019 15:30 Bayfront United States  0.3
04 Sep 2019 15:30 Charleston United States  0.3
04 Sep 2019 15:30 Lakeview Of Lawton Bluff United States  0.3
04 Sep 2019 15:30 Centerville United States  0.3
04 Sep 2019 15:30 Secessionville United States  0.3
04 Sep 2019 15:30 Fort Johnson Estates United States  0.3
04 Sep 2019 15:30 Hobcaw Point United States  0.3
04 Sep 2019 15:30 The Groves United States  0.3
04 Sep 2019 15:30 Mount Pleasant United States  0.3
04 Sep 2019 15:30 Fort Moultrie United States  0.3
04 Sep 2019 15:30 Cassina Heights United States  0.3
04 Sep 2019 15:30 Sullivan's Island United States  0.3
04 Sep 2019 15:30 Palmetto Fort United States  0.3
04 Sep 2019 15:30 Island of Palms United States  0.3
04 Sep 2019 15:30 Isle of Palms United States  0.3
04 Sep 2019 16:30 Melbourne Beach United States  0.3
04 Sep 2019 16:30 Indialantic United States  0.3
04 Sep 2019 16:30 Valkaria United States  0.3
04 Sep 2019 16:30 Grant United States  0.3
04 Sep 2019 16:30 Melbourne Shores United States  0.3
04 Sep 2019 16:30 Evans Pines United States  0.3
04 Sep 2019 16:30 Ballard Pines United States  0.3
04 Sep 2019 16:30 Cummings United States  0.3
04 Sep 2019 16:30 Orchid United States  0.3
04 Sep 2019 14:15 Porcher Bluff United States  0.3
04 Sep 2019 14:15 Ten Mile United States  0.3
04 Sep 2019 17:30 Saint Lucie United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 17:30 Ankona United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 17:30 Walton United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 17:30 Eden United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 17:30 Jensen Beach United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 17:30 Hutchinson Island South United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 17:30 Sewall's Point United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 17:30 Port Sewall United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 14:15 McCellanville United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 14:15 McClellanville United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 13:00 Caines United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 13:00 Quarantine United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 13:00 Clambank United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 13:00 De Bordieu Colony United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 13:00 Hagley Estates United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 13:00 Birds Nest United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 13:00 Pawleys Island United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 15:15 Port Salerno United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 15:15 Gomez United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 15:15 Hobe Sound United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 15:15 Jupiter Island United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 13:00 True Blue United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 13:00 Chapel Creek United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 13:00 Parkersville United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 13:00 Annieville United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 13:00 North Litchfield Beach United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 17:30 Tropic United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 17:30 South Patrick Shores United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 17:30 Satellite Beach United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 17:30 Indian Harbour Beach United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 17:30 Canova Beach United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 13:45 Wabasso United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 13:45 Indian River Shores United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 16:45 Nevins United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 16:45 Riomar United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 16:45 Indrio United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 16:45 South Beach United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 16:45 Queens Cove United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 14:45 Huntington Marsh United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 14:45 Oak Hill United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 14:45 Murrells Inlet United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 14:45 Inlet Harbor United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 14:45 Mount Gilead United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 14:45 Garden City United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 14:45 Surfside Beach United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 14:45 Deer Track Villas United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 14:45 Crystal Lake United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 14:45 Pebble Beach United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 14:45 Konig United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 14:45 Myrtle Ridge United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 14:45 Plantation Point United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 14:45 Myrtle Beach United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 14:45 Ocean Forest United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 16:45 North End Pt The Bahamas  0.2
04 Sep 2019 16:45 Arthurs Town The Bahamas  0.2
04 Sep 2019 16:45 The Lot The Bahamas  0.2
04 Sep 2019 16:45 Zion Hill The Bahamas  0.2
04 Sep 2019 16:45 Thurston Hill The Bahamas  0.2
04 Sep 2019 16:45 Cove Settlement The Bahamas  0.2
04 Sep 2019 15:15 Jupiter United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 15:15 Tequesta United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 15:15 Selhaven United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 15:15 Blowing Rocks United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 15:15 Jupiter Inlet Colony United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 15:15 Juno Ridge United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 15:15 Juno Beach United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 16:45 Cape Canaveral United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 16:45 Cocoa Beach United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 17:45 Crossing Rocks The Bahamas  0.2
04 Sep 2019 16:15 Gregory Town The Bahamas  0.2
04 Sep 2019 16:15 Alice Town The Bahamas  0.2
04 Sep 2019 16:15 James Pt The Bahamas  0.2
04 Sep 2019 16:15 Governors Harbour The Bahamas  0.2
04 Sep 2019 14:00 Arcadian Shores United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 14:00 Briarcliffe Acres United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 14:00 Atlantic Beach United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 14:00 Ingram Beach United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 14:00 North Myrtle Beach United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 14:00 Cherry Grove Beach United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 14:00 Nixons Crossroads United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 14:00 Creekside United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 14:00 Little River United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 14:00 Calabash United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 14:00 Shady Forest United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 14:00 Sunset Beach United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 12:30 Sea Trail Plantation United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 13:15 Ocean Isle Beach United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 13:15 Brick Landing United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 13:15 Monogram United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 13:15 Holden Beach United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 13:15 Secession United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 13:15 Varnamtown United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 13:15 Long Beach United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 13:15 Saint James United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 13:30 Mangonia Park United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 13:30 Lake Park United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 13:30 Riviera Beach United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 13:30 North Palm Beach United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 13:30 West Palm Beach United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 13:30 Palm Beach Shores United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 13:15 Yaupon Beach United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 13:15 Caswell Beach United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 13:15 Coolvale United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 12:15 Playa de Tasajera Cuba  0.1
04 Sep 2019 12:15 Caserio Pescadores Cuba  0.1
04 Sep 2019 12:15 Playa Caimito Cuba  0.1

Calculation folder at this link