Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FERNAND-19
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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2019-09-05 02:36

WTNT42 KNHC 050234
TCDAT2

Remnants Of Fernand Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019
1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019

Fernand made landfall over northeastern Mexico around 1800 UTC and
it has since moved well inland over the very rugged terrain of the
Sierra Madre mountains. Based on surface observations and satellite
images, it appears that Fernand no longer has a well-defined
surface circulation. Therefore, this system does not meet the
criteria of a tropical cyclone, and this is the last advisory on
Fernand issued by NHC.

Even though the cyclone has dissipated, its mid-level remnants are
expected to continue west-northwestward across northern Mexico
during the next few days, producing heavy rains along its path.
These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud
slides. Please consult products from your local weather office for
more information on this rainfall hazard.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 25.0N 99.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-05 02:35

WTNT32 KNHC 050233
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Fernand Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019
1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...FERNAND HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MEXICO...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 99.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM WSW OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the remnants of Fernand were located near
latitude 25.0 North, longitude 99.0 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue for the next couple of days across northern
Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The remnants of Fernand is expected to produce the
following rainfall totals through early Thursday:

Northeast Mexico:
Tamaulipas...Less than 1 inch additional rainfall, isolated storm
totals 15 inches.
Central/Southern Nuevo Leon...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated
storm totals 15 inches.

Northern Nuevo Leon and Southern Coahuila: 2 to 5 inches.

United States:
South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast...Additional 1 to 2 inches,
isolated storm totals 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Fernand.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-05 02:35

WTNT22 KNHC 050233
TCMAT2

REMNANTS OF FERNAND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072019
0300 UTC THU SEP 05 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 99.0W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 99.0W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 98.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 99.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-09-04 20:35

WTNT42 KNHC 042033
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Fernand Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019

Fernand moved inland a few hours ago, and the surface center is
already showing signs of becoming poorly defined. The intensity is
now estimated at 30 kt, assuming weakening has occurred since the
cyclone moved inland. This makes Fernand a Tropical Depression. The
depression should move westward or west-northwestward for the next
12 h or so while it continues to weaken, and it could dissipate as
soon as tonight.

Although the winds have decreased and the depression will likely
dissipate soon, Fernand is still producing substantial convection
and continues to pose a significant rain threat to northeast Mexico.
Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides will be possible through
Thursday, even after Fernand dissipates. Please consult products
from you local weather service for more information on the potential
rainfall hazard.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 24.4N 98.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 25.0N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-04 20:35

WTNT32 KNHC 042033
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fernand Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...FERNAND PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO...
...THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 98.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NW OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning from Puerto Altamira to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fernand
was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 98.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h).
This general motion is forecast to continue through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. A steady decrease in winds is anticipated and Fernand
will likely dissipate tonight or early Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Fernand is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Thursday:

Northeast Mexico:
Tamaulipas and Central/Southern Nuevo Leon...6 to 12 inches,
isolated 18 inches. Greatest amounts in the Sierra Madre Oriental.
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Northern Nuevo Leon and Southern Coahuila: 2 to 5 inches.

United States:
South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast...Additional 1 to 3 inches,
isolated storm totals 6 inches.

WIND: Gusty winds are still possible along the northeast Mexico and
southern Texas coast through tonight.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible across far South Texas
through this evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-04 20:35

WTNT22 KNHC 042033
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNAND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072019
2100 UTC WED SEP 04 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM PUERTO ALTAMIRA TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 98.3W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 98.3W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 98.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 25.0N 100.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 98.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-04 17:40

WTNT32 KNHC 041738
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019
100 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...FERNAND MOVING INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 97.9W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM N OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Altamira to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River

Interests along the lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of
this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was
located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 97.9 West. Fernand is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A motion
toward the west or west-northwest is expected today, and the center
of Fernand will move farther inland over northeastern Mexico
through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected as Fernand move farther inland, and
the system is forecast to dissipate over northeastern Mexico tonight
or Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Fernand is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Northeast Mexico: Tamaulipas and Central/Southern Nuevo Leon: 6 to
12 inches with isolated 18 inches, highest along the immediate Gulf
Coast and in the Sierra Madre Oriental. This rainfall may cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Northern Nuevo Leon and Southern Coahuila: 3 to 6 inches.

South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of
the warning area through this afternoon. Squalls with gusts to
tropical storm force are likely north of the warning area along
portions of the lower Texas coast.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible across far South Texas
through this evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-04 16:40

WTNT62 KNHC 041637 CCA
TCUAT2

Tropical Storm Fernand Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019
1135 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019

Corrected UTC time

...FERNAND MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...

Satellite imagery indicates that the center of Fernand made
landfall along the coast of northeastern Mexico around 1115 AM CDT
(1615 UTC) about 35 miles (55 km) north of La Pesca with estimated
maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (75 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 1135 AM CDT...1635 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 97.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NORTH OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-04 16:38

WTNT62 KNHC 041636
TCUAT2

Tropical Storm Fernand Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019
1135 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...FERNAND MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...

Satellite imagery indicates that the center of Fernand made
landfall along the coast of northeastern Mexico around 1115 AM CDT
(1515 UTC) about 35 miles (55 km) north of La Pesca with estimated
maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (75 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 1135 AM CDT...1535 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 97.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NORTH OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-04 14:35

WTNT42 KNHC 041433
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019
1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019

Early morning visible satellite imagery shows that the center of
Fernand is farther north than previously estimated. Most of the
deep convection has moved inland and is located to the north and
west of the center due to easterly shear. Dvorak T-numbers have
decreased and the area where earlier scatterometer data showed
the strongest winds were located has moved inland, so the initial
intensity has been reduced to 40 kt. Little change in strength is
predicted before the center moves inland later today. After that,
rapid weakening should occur while Fernand moves farther inland
tonight, and the system should dissipate over the higher terrain of
northeastern Mexico by Thursday.

The initial motion of the system is a somewhat uncertain 295/7 kt.
The cyclone should continue on a westward to west-northwestward
track to the south of a strong deep-layer ridge located over the
south-central United States. The new NHC track forecast has been
adjusted north of the previous advisory due to the more northward
initial position, but still lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

The primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that
could produce flooding and mudslides, especially in the mountainous
areas of northeastern Mexico. Radar estimates from the NOAA Doppler
weather radar in Brownsville, Texas (KBRO), indicate that 9 to 12
inches of rainfall may have already occurred across portions of
these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 24.2N 97.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 24.7N 98.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/1200Z 25.5N 101.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-04 14:34

WTNT32 KNHC 041432
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019
1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE SPREADING INLAND OVER
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 97.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Altamira to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River

Interests along the lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of
this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was
located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 97.3 West. Fernand is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A motion
toward the west or west-northwest is expected today, and the center
of Fernand is forecast to cross the northeastern coast of Mexico
this afternoon or evening, and move farther inland tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected before the center moves
onshore. Once inland, rapid weakening is expected, and Fernand
should dissipate on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Fernand is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Northeast Mexico: Tamaulipas and Central/Southern Nuevo Leon: 6 to
12 inches with isolated 18 inches, highest along the immediate Gulf
Coast and in the Sierra Madre Oriental. This rainfall may cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Northern Nuevo Leon and Southern Coahuila: 3 to 6 inches.

South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of
the warning area through this afternoon. Squalls with gusts to
tropical storm force are likely north of the warning area along
portions of the lower Texas coast.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible across far South Texas
through this evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-04 14:34

WTNT22 KNHC 041432
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072019
1500 UTC WED SEP 04 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO ALTAMIRA TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER

INTERESTS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 97.3W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 75SE 90SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 97.3W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 97.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.7N 98.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 25.5N 101.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 97.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 04/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-04 11:46

WTNT32 KNHC 041143
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019
700 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING OVER NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 97.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 1005 MI...160 KM NNE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Altamira to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River

Interests along the lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of
this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was
located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 97.2 West. Fernand is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A motion toward the west
or west-northwest is expected today, and the center of Fernand is
forecast to cross the northeastern coast of Mexico later today or
this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the center
moves onshore. Once inland, rapid weakening is expected, and
Fernand should dissipate on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of
the warning area today. Squalls with gusts to tropical storm force
are likely north of the warning area along portions of the lower
Texas coast.

RAINFALL: Fernand is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Northeast Mexico: Tamaulipas and Central/Southern Nuevo Leon: 6 to
12 inches with isolated 18 inches, highest along the immediate Gulf
Coast and in the Sierra Madre Oriental. This rainfall may cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Northern Nuevo Leon and Southern Coahuila: 3 to 6 inches.

South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible across far South Texas
through this evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-04 08:34

WTNT42 KNHC 040832
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019
400 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019

An ASCAT-C scatterometer pass around 0310 UTC indicated a few wind
vectors of 38-40 kt in the northwestern quadrant of the circulation.
Allowing for some undersampling by the instrument, the initial
intensity is held at 45 kt. The overall convective pattern in radar
and satellite imagery has changed little over the past 6 hours.

Fernand's motion is slowly westward at 270/05 kt. Fernand is
expected to be steered westward this morning by a broad deep-layer
ridge that extends across the entire southern United States,
followed by a west-northwestward motion tonight and Thursday. As a
result, the cyclone is forecast to move inland over northeastern
Mexico by this evening, and then dissipate quickly over the rugged
terrain of the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains. The NHC forecast
track is similar to the previous advisory track and essentially lies
down the middle of track guidance envelope.

Fernand has been experiencing moderate easterly to southeasterly
vertical wind shear and ingesting dry air in the southeastern
semicircle. These unfavorable conditions are forecast to continue
until landfall occurs in about 12 hours, resulting in little if any
additional strengthening.

The primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that
could produce flooding and mudslides, especially in the mountainous
areas of Mexico. Radar estimates from the NOAA Doppler weather radar
in Brownsville, Texas (KBRO), indicate that up to 10 inches of
rainfall may have already occurred across portions of northeastern
Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 23.1N 96.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 23.5N 97.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/0600Z 24.0N 99.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-04 08:34

WTNT32 KNHC 040831
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019
400 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...FERNAND MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARD NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS LIKELY OCCURRING IN THE WARNING AREA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 96.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM NE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Altamira to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
likely occurring somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere along the eastern coast of Mexico and the lower
Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was
located near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 96.8 West. Fernand is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A motion toward the
west or west-northwest is expected today, and the center of Fernand
is forecast to cross the northeastern coast of Mexico later today or
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight increase in intensity is possible before landfall. Once
inland, rapid weakening is expected, and Fernand should dissipate
on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring within the
warning area and will continue to increase today. Squalls with gusts
to tropical storm force are likely north of the warning area along
portions of the lower Texas coast.

RAINFALL: Fernand is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Northeast Mexico: Tamaulipas and Central/Southern Nuevo Leon: 6 to
12 inches with isolated 18 inches, highest along the immediate Gulf
Coast and in the Sierra Madre Oriental. This rainfall may cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Northern Nuevo Leon and Southern Coahuila: 3 to 6 inches.

South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible across far South Texas
through this evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-04 08:34

WTNT22 KNHC 040831
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072019
0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO ALTAMIRA TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 96.8W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 96.8W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 96.6W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.5N 97.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.0N 99.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 96.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 04/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-09-04 05:52

WTNT32 KNHC 040550
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019
100 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...FERNAND EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS TO THE COAST
OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 96.7W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM NE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Altamira to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 6 to 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the eastern coast of Mexico and the lower
Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was
located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 96.7 West. Fernand is
moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a track toward the
west-northwest is anticipated today and on Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Fernand is expected to cross the
northeastern coast of Mexico by tonight.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight increase in intensity is possible before
landfall. Once inland, weakening is expected, and Fernand should
dissipate in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center mainly to the west of the center. Satellite-derived
surface wind data indicate that tropical-storm-force winds are
are just offshore the coast of northeastern Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are already very near the coast
within the warning area and will continue to increase today, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Squalls with gusts to
tropical storm force are likely north of the warning area along
portions of the lower Texas coast.

RAINFALL: Fernand is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Northeast Mexico: Central Tamaulipas and southern Nuevo Leon: 6 to
12 inches, isolated 15 inches in the Sierra Madre Oriental.
Northern Tamaulipas and northern Nuevo Leon: 3 to 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening mudslides and flash floods.

South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible across far South Texas
through today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-04 02:35

WTNT42 KNHC 040233
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019
1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane investigated Fernand this evening and
found that the circulation of the cyclone was better organized
with a central pressure of 1000 mb. The plane also measured a peak
flight level wind of 51 kt, and numerous SFMR observations of around
45 kt. This is the intensity assigned to Fernand in this advisory.
These strong winds were confined to the western semicircle of the
storm and very close to the coast of Mexico. The satellite
presentation has also improved during the past few hours, but due to
shear, the center is still located on the southeastern edge of an
area of very deep convection.

Fernand does not have to much room for strengthening since its
circulation will soon be interacting with the high terrain of
eastern Mexico. However, in the next 12 to 18 hours before the
center moves inland, some intensification could occur as indicated
in the official NHC forecast. Once Fernand moves inland, it will
weaken rapidly.

The cyclone is moving slowly westward or 270 degrees at 3 kt.
Fernand is trapped south of a strong mid-level ridge over the
southwestern United States, and this pattern should slowly steer the
cyclone on a west-to west-northwest track for the next day or so.
This track is consistent with the previous one, and it is consistent
with the solution of the global models.

The primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that
could produce flooding and mudslides, especially in the mountainous
areas of Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 23.2N 96.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 23.5N 97.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 24.0N 98.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/1200Z 24.5N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-04 02:35

WTNT32 KNHC 040232
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019
1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FERNAND EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF
MEXICO LATE WEDNESDAY...
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE MEASURED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ALREADY NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 96.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM NE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Altamira to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 6 to 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the eastern coast of Mexico and the lower
Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was
located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 96.4 West. Fernand is
moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a track toward the
west-northwest is anticipated on Wednesday and Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Fernand is expected to cross the
northeastern coast of Mexico on Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight increase in intensity is possible before landfall. Once
inland, weakening is expected and Fernand should dissipate in a
couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center mainly to the west of the center. Data from the
reconnaissance plane indicate that the tropical storm force winds
are already near the coast of Mexico.

The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter
plane was 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are already very near the coast
within the warning area and will continue to increase on Wednesday,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Squalls with
gusts to tropical-storm force are likely north of the warning area
along portions of the lower Texas coast.

RAINFALL: Fernand is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Northeast Mexico: Central Tamaulipas and southern Nuevo Leon 6 to
12 inches, isolated 15 inches in the Sierra Madre Oriental.
Northern Tamaulipas and northern Nuevo Leon: 3 to 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening mudslides and flash floods.

South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible across far South Texas
through Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-04 02:35

WTNT22 KNHC 040232
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072019
0300 UTC WED SEP 04 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO ALTAMIRA TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 96.4W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 96.4W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 96.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.5N 97.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.0N 98.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.5N 100.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 96.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 04/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-09-03 23:53

WTNT32 KNHC 032351
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019
700 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS FERNAND A LITTLE STRONGER...
...FERNAND EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 96.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...265 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.52 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Altamira to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the eastern coast of Mexico and the lower
Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was
located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 96.3 West. Fernand
is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue tonight with some decrease in forward speed. A
motion toward the west-northwest is forecast on Wednesday, followed
by a motion toward the northwest on Wednesday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Fernand is expected to cross the
northeastern coast of Mexico on Wednesday night.

Preliminary data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that
Fernand is stregthening and the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional
strengthening is possible before Fernand moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
mainly to the west of the center.

The preliminary minimum central pressure reported by the NOAA
Hurricane Hunter plane was 1000 mb (29.52 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area late tonight or early Wednesday,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Squalls with
gusts to tropical-storm force are likely north of the warning area
along portions of the lower Texas coast.

RAINFALL: Fernand is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Northeast Mexico: 6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches, highest in the
Sierra Madre Oriental of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon. This rainfall
may cause life-threatening mudslides and flash floods.

South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible across far South Texas
through Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-03 20:41

WTNT42 KNHC 032038
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019
400 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019

Scatterometer data near 1600 UTC showed an area of 35-kt winds
about 90 n mi west of the center of Tropical Depression Seven, and
based on this it was upgraded to Tropical Storm Fernand. Satellite
imagery indicates a gradual increase in organization, with a
well-defined low cloud swirl on the southeast edge of a growing area
of central convection, accompanied by a large outer band in the
northwestern semicircle.

The initial motion is now 265/6. A deep-layer ridge over the
southern United States is expected to steer the cyclone generally
westward for the next 12 h or so, followed by a west-northwestward
to northwestward motion for the remainder of its lifetime. The new
forecast track now lies near the various consensus models and calls
for the center to reach the northeastern coast of Mexico in just
over 24 h. Based mainly on the current position and motion, the
new track is a little south of the previous track, and at this time
it appears unlikely that watches or warnings will be needed for the
lower Texas coast.

An environment of moderate easterly shear appears conducive for
gradual strengthening before the cyclone moves into Mexico, and the
new intensity forecast now shows a peak intensity of 45 kt near
landfall. After landfall, Fernand should weaken, with the system
dissipating completely over northeastern Mexico by 72 h.

The primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that
could produce flooding and mudslides, especially in the mountainous
areas of Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 23.4N 95.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 23.4N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 23.7N 97.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 24.2N 98.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/1800Z 25.0N 99.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-03 20:40

WTNT32 KNHC 032038
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019
400 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...FERNAND MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO EXTENDS WARNING SOUTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 95.9W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Barra del Tordo southward to Puerto Altamira.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Altamira to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the eastern coast of Mexico and the
lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system.


For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was
located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 95.9 West. Fernand is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue tonight with some decrease in forward speed. A
motion toward the west-northwest is forecast on Wednesday, followed
by a motion toward the northwest on Wednesday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Fernand is expected to cross the
northeastern coast of Mexico late Wednesday or Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast before Fernand moves inland. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate
Fernand.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
mainly to the west of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area late tonight or early Wednesday,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Squalls with
gusts to tropical-storm force are likely north of the warning area
along portions of the lower Texas coast.

RAINFALL: Fernand is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Northeast Mexico: 6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches, highest in the
Sierra Madre Oriental of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon. This rainfall
may cause life-threatening mudslides and flash floods.

South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible across far South Texas
through Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-03 20:39

WTNT22 KNHC 032037
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
BARRA DEL TORDO SOUTHWARD TO PUERTO ALTAMIRA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO ALTAMIRA TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 95.9W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 95.9W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 95.5W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.4N 96.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.7N 97.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.2N 98.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 25.0N 99.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 95.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 04/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-09-03 17:51

WTNT32 KNHC 031749
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019
100 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM FERNAND...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 95.3W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the northeast coast of Mexico from La Pesca to Barra del Tordo and
from Barra El Mezquital to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northeastern coast of Mexico and the
lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional watches or warnings could be required later today for
portions of these areas.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand
was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 95.3 West. Fernand
is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue today. A motion toward the west-northwest is
forecast tonight and Wednesday. This motion could bring the center
of Fernand near or over the coast of northeastern Mexico late
Wednesday.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional slow strengthening is forecast before the system moves
inland. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Fernand this afternoon to provide more information on
the intensity.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (170 km)
mainly to the west of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area late tonight or early Wednesday,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Squalls with
gusts to tropical-storm force are likely north of the warning area
along portions of the northeastern coast of Mexico and the lower
Texas coast.

RAINFALL: Fernand is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Northeast Mexico: 6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches, highest in the
Sierra Madre Oriental of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon. This rainfall
may cause life-threatening mudslides and flash floods.

South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-03 16:00

WTNT82 EGRR 031559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 03.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 30.2N 66.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.09.2019 0 30.2N 66.5W 1013 23
0000UTC 04.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 17.6N 31.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.09.2019 0 17.6N 31.4W 1010 23
0000UTC 04.09.2019 12 18.6N 32.7W 1011 25
1200UTC 04.09.2019 24 19.4N 32.8W 1011 28
0000UTC 05.09.2019 36 20.8N 32.8W 1009 36
1200UTC 05.09.2019 48 22.0N 33.1W 1008 34
0000UTC 06.09.2019 60 23.3N 34.1W 1010 30
1200UTC 06.09.2019 72 24.7N 35.6W 1011 28
0000UTC 07.09.2019 84 27.2N 37.7W 1012 29
1200UTC 07.09.2019 96 29.8N 38.7W 1012 31
0000UTC 08.09.2019 108 31.7N 41.0W 1014 28
1200UTC 08.09.2019 120 33.7N 43.6W 1014 27
0000UTC 09.09.2019 132 35.1N 45.7W 1014 24
1200UTC 09.09.2019 144 37.0N 46.2W 1014 23

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 26.9N 78.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.09.2019 0 26.9N 78.5W 957 69
0000UTC 04.09.2019 12 27.9N 78.9W 958 68
1200UTC 04.09.2019 24 29.5N 79.9W 943 80
0000UTC 05.09.2019 36 30.7N 80.2W 944 70
1200UTC 05.09.2019 48 31.9N 79.9W 948 75
0000UTC 06.09.2019 60 33.4N 78.3W 943 74
1200UTC 06.09.2019 72 35.3N 76.0W 952 71
0000UTC 07.09.2019 84 37.5N 72.0W 948 72
1200UTC 07.09.2019 96 40.9N 67.5W 943 73
0000UTC 08.09.2019 108 44.5N 63.0W 952 59
1200UTC 08.09.2019 120 48.6N 60.0W 956 59
0000UTC 09.09.2019 132 52.2N 53.5W 976 45
1200UTC 09.09.2019 144 54.7N 47.1W 987 38

HURRICANE JULIETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 115.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.09.2019 0 18.0N 115.1W 974 64
0000UTC 04.09.2019 12 18.5N 116.0W 975 60
1200UTC 04.09.2019 24 19.0N 117.0W 973 58
0000UTC 05.09.2019 36 19.7N 118.7W 973 61
1200UTC 05.09.2019 48 20.4N 120.4W 976 60
0000UTC 06.09.2019 60 21.4N 122.3W 984 52
1200UTC 06.09.2019 72 22.1N 124.5W 993 45
0000UTC 07.09.2019 84 22.6N 127.0W 1000 38
1200UTC 07.09.2019 96 22.8N 129.6W 1005 34
0000UTC 08.09.2019 108 22.7N 132.1W 1008 31
1200UTC 08.09.2019 120 22.3N 134.7W 1011 28
0000UTC 09.09.2019 132 22.3N 137.4W 1012 26
1200UTC 09.09.2019 144 22.3N 139.7W 1013 28

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07L ANALYSED POSITION : 22.9N 94.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.09.2019 0 22.9N 94.6W 1006 26
0000UTC 04.09.2019 12 22.5N 95.2W 1005 32
1200UTC 04.09.2019 24 23.8N 97.0W 1005 26
0000UTC 05.09.2019 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 11.5N 150.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.09.2019 96 12.1N 151.2W 1006 28
0000UTC 08.09.2019 108 12.4N 153.6W 1006 28
1200UTC 08.09.2019 120 12.8N 156.4W 1006 31
0000UTC 09.09.2019 132 14.4N 159.8W 1006 32
1200UTC 09.09.2019 144 15.0N 163.4W 1007 33


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 031559

>

2019-09-03 16:00

WTNT80 EGRR 031559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 03.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 30.2N 66.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.09.2019 30.2N 66.5W WEAK
00UTC 04.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 17.6N 31.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.09.2019 17.6N 31.4W WEAK
00UTC 04.09.2019 18.6N 32.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2019 19.4N 32.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2019 20.8N 32.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2019 22.0N 33.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2019 23.3N 34.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2019 24.7N 35.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2019 27.2N 37.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2019 29.8N 38.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2019 31.7N 41.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2019 33.7N 43.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2019 35.1N 45.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2019 37.0N 46.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 26.9N 78.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.09.2019 26.9N 78.5W INTENSE
00UTC 04.09.2019 27.9N 78.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2019 29.5N 79.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 05.09.2019 30.7N 80.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2019 31.9N 79.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2019 33.4N 78.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.09.2019 35.3N 76.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.09.2019 37.5N 72.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2019 40.9N 67.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2019 44.5N 63.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2019 48.6N 60.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2019 52.2N 53.5W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 09.09.2019 54.7N 47.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

HURRICANE JULIETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 115.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.09.2019 18.0N 115.1W STRONG
00UTC 04.09.2019 18.5N 116.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2019 19.0N 117.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2019 19.7N 118.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2019 20.4N 120.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2019 21.4N 122.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.09.2019 22.1N 124.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.09.2019 22.6N 127.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.09.2019 22.8N 129.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2019 22.7N 132.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2019 22.3N 134.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2019 22.3N 137.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2019 22.3N 139.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07L ANALYSED POSITION : 22.9N 94.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.09.2019 22.9N 94.6W WEAK
00UTC 04.09.2019 22.5N 95.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2019 23.8N 97.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 11.5N 150.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.09.2019 12.1N 151.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2019 12.4N 153.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2019 12.8N 156.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2019 14.4N 159.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2019 15.0N 163.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 031559

>

2019-09-03 14:46

WTNT42 KNHC 031444
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019
1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019

First-light visible imagery indicates that the circulation of the
low pressure area in the western Gulf of Mexico has become better
defined, and that the system has sufficient organized convection to
be designated a tropical depression. The initial intensity of 30 kt
is based mainly on persistence from earlier scatterometer data.

The initial motion is 260/6. A deep-layer ridge over the southern
United States is expected to steer the cyclone generally westward
to west-northwestward through its lifetime. The new forecast track
is between the HCCA and the TVCA consensus models and calls for the
center to reach the northeastern coast of Mexico in about 36 h.
The new track is shifted a little to the north of the previous
track, but not significantly far enough to increase the threat to
south Texas.

Conditions appear conducive for gradual strengthening before the
cyclone moves into Mexico. However, the broad and large nature of
the circulation is likely to prevent rapid intensification before
landfall. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous
forecast and calls for the system to become a tropical storm before
reaching Mexico, followed by dissipation over northeastern Mexico
by 72 h.

The primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that
could produce flooding and mudslides, especially in the mountainous
areas of Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 23.6N 94.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 23.4N 95.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 23.6N 96.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 24.1N 97.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 24.8N 98.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-03 14:46

WTNT32 KNHC 031444
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019
1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 94.9W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* La Pesca to Barra El Mezquital

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northeastern coast of Mexico and the
lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional watches or warnings could be required later today for
portions of these areas.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven
was located near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 94.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue today. A motion toward the west-
northwest is forecast tonight and Wednesday. This motion could
bring the system near or over the coast of northeastern Mexico late
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast before the system moves inland, and
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area during the day Wednesday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Squalls with gusts to
tropical-storm force are likely north of the warning area along
portions of the northeastern coast of Mexico and the lower Texas
coast.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following
rainfall totals through Friday:

Northeast Mexico: 6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches, highest in the
Sierra Madre Oriental of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon. This rainfall
may cause life-threatening mudslides and flash floods.

South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-03 14:46

WTNT22 KNHC 031444
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072019
1500 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA PESCA TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY FOR
PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 94.9W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 94.9W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 94.6W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 23.4N 95.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.6N 96.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.1N 97.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.8N 98.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N 94.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 03/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-09-03 11:35

WTNT32 KNHC 031132
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019
700 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...DISTURBANCE MOVING WESTWARD...
...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM LATER TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 94.6W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* La Pesca to Barra El Mezquital

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
23.5 North, longitude 94.6 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue
today. A motion toward the west or west-northwest is forecast on
Wednesday. This motion could bring the system near or over the
coast of northeastern Mexico late Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast is forecast during the next
48 hours, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical
cyclone later today and become a tropical storm by tonight.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has been increasing in
organization this morning, and the low is likely to become a
tropical depression or a tropical storm later today or tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area during the day Wednesday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce the following
rainfall totals through Friday:

Northeast Mexico: 6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches, highest in the
Sierra Madre Oriental of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon.

South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-03 09:11

WTNT42 KNHC 030909
TCDAT2

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019
400 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019

Overnight scatterometer wind data and infrared satellite imagery
indicate that the broad low pressure system located over the
west-central and southwestern Gulf of Mexico is gradually becoming
better defined, but still lacks a well-defined center. However, the
scatterometer indicated surface winds of 30-33 kt in the
northwestern quadrant and observations from Buoy 42002 north of the
center have been indicating wind speeds of 25-27 kt at 4-meter
elevation. Based on these data, advisories are being initiated on
Potential Cyclone Seven. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain
260/06 kt. The general motion of the broad low is expected to be
westward, being steered by a deep-layer ridge located over the
southern United States. It is possible, however, that an apparent
west-northwestward motion could occur if the low-level center
redevelops farther north into the deep convection. The NHC forecast
track is similar to, but a little north of, the consensus model
TVCN.

Some slight strengthening is forecast during then next 36-48 hours
before the low moves inland over northeastern Mexico. However, the
broad and large circulation should prevent any rapid intensification
from occurring. The official intensity forecast is similar to the
IVCN consensus model.

The primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that
could produce flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous
areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 23.5N 94.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 03/1800Z 23.4N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H 04/0600Z 23.4N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 23.7N 97.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 24.3N 98.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-03 09:05

WTNT22 KNHC 030902 CCA
TCMAT2

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN
FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072019
0900 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019

CORRECTED TO SHOW TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS AT 3/1800Z

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
LA PESCA NORTHWARD TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA PESCA TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 94.3W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 94.3W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 94.0W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 23.4N 95.2W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.4N 96.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.7N 97.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.3N 98.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 94.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 03/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-09-03 09:03

WTNT32 KNHC 030900
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019
400 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM LATER TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 94.3W
ABOUT 220 MI...360 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
La Pesca northward to Barra El Mezquital.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* La Pesca to Barra El Mezquital

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
23.5 North, longitude 94.3 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue
today. A motion toward the west or west-northwest is forecast on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast is forecast during the next 48
hours, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical cyclone
later today and become a tropical storm by tonight.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has been steadily increasing in
coverage and organization this morning, and the low is likely to
become a tropical depression or a tropical storm later today or
tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Wednesday evening, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches with isolated amounts
of 15 inches will be likely over portions of northeastern Mexico,
especially in mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-03 08:59

WTNT22 KNHC 030857
TCMAT2

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072019
0900 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
LA PESCA NORTHWARD TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA PESCA TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 94.3W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 94.3W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 94.0W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 23.4N 95.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.4N 96.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.7N 97.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.3N 98.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 94.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 03/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>