Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CHENESO-23
in Madagascar
20 Jan 2023 10 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone CHENESO-23 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
    Exposed countries Madagascar
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 169 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (19 Jan 11:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Madagascar)
    Landfall between
    19 Jan 2023 10:00 - 19 Jan 2023 16:00
    in Madagascar

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 84 km/h 0.1 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 169 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

    Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France
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    Wind

      84 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 3.3 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 18 Jan 2023 04:00 95 4.1 million No people Madagascar
        Green 2 18 Jan 2023 10:00 106 4.4 million No people Madagascar
        Green 3 18 Jan 2023 16:00 116 1.6 million No people Madagascar
        Green 4 18 Jan 2023 22:00 127 5.3 million No people Madagascar
        Green 5 19 Jan 2023 04:00 116 4.8 million No people Madagascar
        Green 6 19 Jan 2023 10:00 106 2.7 million No people Madagascar
        Green 7 19 Jan 2023 16:00 74 3.8 million No people Madagascar
        Green 8 19 Jan 2023 22:00 74 3.4 million No people Madagascar
        Green 9 20 Jan 2023 04:00 53 3.1 million No people Madagascar
        Green 10 20 Jan 2023 10:00 84 3.3 million No people Madagascar

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Category
          (WMO/RSMC) **           		Max winds
          (km/h)
          (WMO/RSMC)           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 18 Jan 2023 04:00 Tropical storm 63 no people no people Tropical Depression 56 -13.9, 56
          GREEN
          		 2 18 Jan 2023 10:00 Tropical storm 63 no people no people Tropical Depression 56 -13.7, 53.8
          GREEN
          		 3 18 Jan 2023 16:00 Tropical storm 95 no people no people Moderate Tropical Storm 83 -13.4, 52.8
          GREEN
          		 4 18 Jan 2023 22:00 Tropical storm 116 no people 1.3 million people Severe Tropical Storm 102 -13.5, 51.9
          GREEN
          		 5 19 Jan 2023 04:00 Tropical storm 116 no people 2.8 million people Severe Tropical Storm 102 -13.9, 51.1
          GREEN
          		 6 19 Jan 2023 10:00 Tropical storm 106 no people 1.3 million people Severe Tropical Storm 93 -14.6, 50.5
          GREEN
          		 7 19 Jan 2023 16:00 Tropical storm 63 no people 3.3 million people Overland Depression 56 -15.2, 49.7 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 8 19 Jan 2023 22:00 Tropical storm 63 no people 2 million people Overland Depression 56 -15.6, 49.1 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 9 20 Jan 2023 04:00 Tropical depression 53 no people no people Overland Depression 46 -16, 48.4 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 10 20 Jan 2023 10:00 Tropical depression 53 no people no people Overland Depression 46 -16.7, 46.9 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 10 20 Jan 2023 22:00 Tropical depression 53 no people no people Overland Depression 46 -17.4, 46 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 10 21 Jan 2023 10:00 Tropical depression 42 no people no people Overland Depression 37 -18.3, 45.2 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 10 21 Jan 2023 22:00 Tropical depression 42 no people no people Overland Depression 37 -19.3, 44.7 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 10 23 Jan 2023 22:00 Tropical storm 63 no people no people Tropical Depression 56 -19.1, 44
          GREEN
          		 10 24 Jan 2023 10:00 Tropical storm 63 no people 660000 people Tropical Depression 56 -19, 43.8
          GREEN
          		 10 24 Jan 2023 22:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 660000 people Moderate Tropical Storm 65 -19, 43.6
          GREEN
          		 10 25 Jan 2023 10:00 Tropical storm 84 no people no people Moderate Tropical Storm 74 -19, 43.4
          **
          Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
          Madagascar 3.3 million people

          Provinces

          Region Province Country Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
          Mahajanga Madagascar 1.4 million people
          Toamasina Madagascar 570000 people
          Toliara Madagascar 410000 people
          Antsiranana Madagascar 870000 people

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Mandritsara Mahajanga Madagascar City -
          Mananara Toamasina Madagascar City 41000 people
          Maroantsetra Toamasina Madagascar City 24000 people
          Andapa Antsiranana Madagascar City 20000 people
          Antalaha Antsiranana Madagascar City 34000 people
          Sambava Antsiranana Madagascar City 31000 people
          Vohemar Antsiranana Madagascar City -

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Port Berge WPB 65 Civ. Unpaved No 4200
          Anahidrano 60 0
          Mandritsara WMA 307 Civ. Unpaved No 3700
          Antsohihy Ambalabe WAI 28 Civ. Paved No 4900
          Befandriana WBD 250 Civ. Unpaved No 4100
          Morafenobe TVA unknown 0
          Ankavandra JVA 130 Civ. Unpaved No 3200
          Bealanana WBE 1120 0
          Mananara Nord WMR 3 Civ. Paved No 4100
          Tambohorano WTA 7 Civ. Unpaved No 3200
          Antsalova WAQ 168 Civ. Unpaved No 3000
          Maroantsetra WMN 4 Civ. Paved No 4200
          Maintirano MXT 30 Civ. Unpaved No 4200
          Andapa ZWA 473 Civ. Paved No 4100
          Doany DOA unknown 0
          Antalaha Antsirabato ANM 6 Civ. Paved No 3900
          Belo Sur Tsiribihina BMD 47 Civ. Paved No 4400
          Sambava SVB 6 Civ. Paved No 5900
          Morondava MOQ 7 Civ. Paved No 4900
          Vohemar VOH 6 Civ. Paved No 4200

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Mananara MGWMR Madagascar
          Maroantsetra MGWMN Madagascar
          Maintirano MGMXT Madagascar
          Antataha MGANM Madagascar
          Sambava MGSVB Madagascar
          Morondava MGMOQ Madagascar
          Vohemar Madagascar
          Belo Sur Mer Madagascar
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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.2 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Ampaha, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 19 Jan 2023 11:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (33 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 10 of 20 Jan 2023 10:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          19 Jan 2023 11:00 Ampaha Madagascar  0.2
          19 Jan 2023 11:00 Andrapengy Madagascar  0.2
          19 Jan 2023 12:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.2
          19 Jan 2023 12:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
          19 Jan 2023 10:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
          19 Jan 2023 10:00 Sambava Madagascar  0.2
          19 Jan 2023 11:00 Ambodipont-Sahana Madagascar  0.2
          19 Jan 2023 11:00 Ambinany Madagascar  0.2
          19 Jan 2023 12:00 Antalaha Madagascar  0.2
          19 Jan 2023 12:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.2
          19 Jan 2023 10:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
          19 Jan 2023 09:00 Antohamaro Madagascar  0.2
          19 Jan 2023 10:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2023 11:00 Amborimalana Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2023 10:00 Ambohitralanana Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2023 10:00 Antongompatatra Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2023 10:00 Bemanevika Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2023 12:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2023 12:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2023 09:00 Ampana Kanana Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2023 10:00 Farahalana Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2023 11:00 Anjahamarina Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2023 12:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2023 11:00 Antsirabato Madagascar  0.1
          22 Jan 2023 22:00 Appontement Madagascar  0.1
          22 Jan 2023 22:00 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2023 11:00 Ambalabe Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2023 12:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2023 12:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2023 12:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2023 10:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.1
          23 Jan 2023 12:00 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2023 10:00 Ambodivato Madagascar  0.1