Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BLAKE-20
in Australia
08 Jan 2020 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BLAKE-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 94 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.1 m (06 Jan 05:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 94 km/h 1.1 m 449 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 94 km/h 1.1 m 449 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

94 km/h

Up to 20 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Jan 2020 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormAustralia19,894 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 05 Jan 2020 18:00 76 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 2 06 Jan 2020 00:00 83 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 3 06 Jan 2020 06:00 94 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 4 06 Jan 2020 12:00 72 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 5 06 Jan 2020 18:00 72 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 6 07 Jan 2020 00:00 72 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 7 07 Jan 2020 06:00 65 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 8 07 Jan 2020 12:00 65 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 9 07 Jan 2020 18:00 61 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 10 08 Jan 2020 00:00 68 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 11 08 Jan 2020 06:00 65 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 12 08 Jan 2020 12:00 76 -
- - - - - Australia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Jan 2020 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmAustralia12,222 
100-250 mmIndonesia, Australia14,715,985
+
Indonesia14,698,580 
Australia17,405 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Australia11,117,066
+
Indonesia11,112,272 
Australia4,794 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 05 Jan 2020 18:00 94 -
- - - - - Australia
Blue 2 06 Jan 2020 00:00 136 Few people
- - - - Australia
Blue 3 06 Jan 2020 06:00 87 -
- - - - - Australia
Blue 4 06 Jan 2020 12:00 105 Few people
- - - - Australia
Blue 5 06 Jan 2020 18:00 77 -
- - - - - Australia
Blue 6 07 Jan 2020 00:00 92 -
- - - - - Australia
Blue 7 07 Jan 2020 06:00 67 -
- - - - - Australia
Blue 8 07 Jan 2020 12:00 132 -
- - - - - Australia
Blue 9 07 Jan 2020 18:00 89 -
- - - - - Australia
Blue 10 08 Jan 2020 00:00 112 Few people
- - - - Australia
Blue 11 08 Jan 2020 06:00 97 -
- - - - - Australia
Blue 12 08 Jan 2020 12:00 417 5 thousand
- - - Indonesia, Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

1.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.1m in Derby, Australia. This height is estimated for 06 Jan 2020 05:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 08 Jan 2020 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
06 Jan 2020 05:00 Derby Australia  1.1
05 Jan 2020 22:00 Pender Australia  0.6
06 Jan 2020 01:15 Kollan I Australia  0.6
07 Jan 2020 03:30 Thangoo Australia  0.4
08 Jan 2020 04:00 Pardoo Australia  0.4
07 Jan 2020 03:15 Broome Australia  0.4
07 Jan 2020 18:45 Waterbank Australia  0.3
08 Jan 2020 03:45 Condon Australia  0.3
07 Jan 2020 18:45 Kennedys Cottage Australia  0.3
06 Jan 2020 08:00 Blimbing Indonesia  0.2
06 Jan 2020 08:00 Dadapan Indonesia  0.2
06 Jan 2020 08:00 Banyuwangi Indonesia  0.2
06 Jan 2020 08:00 Banjuwangi Indonesia  0.2
06 Jan 2020 08:00 Soega Indonesia  0.2
06 Jan 2020 08:00 Gilimanuk Indonesia  0.2
06 Jan 2020 08:00 Penginoeman Indonesia  0.2
06 Jan 2020 08:00 Belimbingsari Indonesia  0.2
06 Jan 2020 08:00 Tjandikesuma Indonesia  0.2
06 Jan 2020 08:00 Banjoebiroe Indonesia  0.2
06 Jan 2020 02:45 Muntjar Indonesia  0.2
05 Jan 2020 21:00 Kencong Indonesia  0.2
05 Jan 2020 21:00 Lodjedjer Indonesia  0.2
08 Jan 2020 16:30 Port Hedland Australia  0.2
06 Jan 2020 02:45 Cupel Indonesia  0.2
06 Jan 2020 02:45 Banjuwedang Indonesia  0.2
06 Jan 2020 02:45 Prancak Indonesia  0.2
06 Jan 2020 02:45 Negara Indonesia  0.2
06 Jan 2020 07:45 Wickham Australia  0.1
06 Jan 2020 07:45 Point Samson Australia  0.1
06 Jan 2020 07:45 Cossack Australia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 01:00 Sidaju Indonesia  0.1
06 Jan 2020 02:45 Brassan Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 01:30 Aermata Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 01:30 Klampis Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 01:00 Sangkapura Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 01:00 Sapulu Indonesia  0.1
06 Jan 2020 09:00 Karratha Australia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 01:00 Tambak Indonesia  0.1
06 Jan 2020 17:30 Mardie Australia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 01:00 Tlagabiru Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 01:00 Banjoeates Indonesia  0.1
06 Jan 2020 08:00 East Lewis I Australia  0.1
06 Jan 2020 08:00 Dampier Australia  0.1
10 Jan 2020 16:15 Ketapang Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 01:00 Kelapang Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 16:45 Adoenara Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 16:45 Lamakera Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 16:45 Papelawe Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 16:45 Sagu Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 16:45 Wotanglolong Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 16:45 Lewokeling Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 16:45 Witihama Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 16:45 Boleng Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 16:45 Nereng Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 16:45 Lewoleba Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 16:45 Lamanuna Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 16:45 Riangeba Indonesia  0.1