Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for SITRANG-22
in Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Bhutan
25 Oct 2022 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SITRANG-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Bangladesh, Myanmar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 115 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.0 m (24 Oct 16:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Bangladesh)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 115 km/h 2.0 m 417 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 115 km/h 2.0 m 417 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

115 km/h

Up to 6 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 25 Oct 2022 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormBangladesh, Myanmar5,970,380
+
Bangladesh5,968,547 
Myanmar1,833 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 23 Oct 2022 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 23 Oct 2022 18:00 101 -
- - - - - Bangladesh
GREEN 3 24 Oct 2022 00:00 115 -
- - - - - Bangladesh, Myanmar
GREEN 4 24 Oct 2022 06:00 97 -
- - - - - Bangladesh, Myanmar
GREEN 5 24 Oct 2022 12:00 83 -
- - - - - Bangladesh, Myanmar
GREEN 6 24 Oct 2022 18:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 25 Oct 2022 00:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 25 Oct 2022 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 25 Oct 2022 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 25 Oct 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmBangladesh, Vietnam24,508,412
+
Bangladesh24,132,199 
Vietnam376,213 
100-250 mmChina, India, Myanmar, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, Malaysia, Indonesia63,643,042
+
China48,744 
India6,472,741 
Myanmar59,706 
Bhutan76,694 
Bangladesh52,864,044 
Vietnam2,092,226 
Laos1,042 
Cambodia16,556 
Thailand2,875 
Malaysia1,999,129 
Indonesia9,280 
50-100 mmChina, India, Myanmar, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Malaysia, Indonesia148,890,952
+
China356,973 
India19,982,383 
Myanmar16,994,164 
Bhutan196,397 
Bangladesh34,514,962 
Vietnam29,326,574 
Laos10,621 
Cambodia6,806,194 
Thailand19,340,019 
Sri Lanka5,557,159 
Maldives233,321 
Malaysia11,855,548 
Indonesia3,716,633 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 23 Oct 2022 12:00 184 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 23 Oct 2022 18:00 223 -
- - - - - Bangladesh
Blue 3 24 Oct 2022 00:00 215 3.8 million
- - - - Bangladesh
Blue 4 24 Oct 2022 06:00 190 29.5 million
- - - - Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia
Blue 5 24 Oct 2022 12:00 127 16 million
- - - - India, Bangladesh, Indonesia
Blue 6 24 Oct 2022 18:00 148 300 thousand
- - - - India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Laos
Blue 7 25 Oct 2022 00:00 104 -
- - - - - India, Vietnam, Laos
Blue 8 25 Oct 2022 06:00 109 Few people
- - - - Vietnam, Laos
Blue 9 25 Oct 2022 12:00 189 720 thousand
- - - - Cambodia, Thailand, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Indonesia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

2 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 25 Oct 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
1.0 - 2.0 mBangladesh767,992 
0.5 - 1.0 mBangladesh, India506,066
+
Bangladesh466,505 
India39,561 
0.25 - 0.5 mBangladesh, India, Myanmar, Malaysia835,845
+
Bangladesh211,279 
India78,764 
Myanmar501,823 
Malaysia43,978 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 25 Oct 2022 12:00 UTC