Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for LISA-22
in Guatemala, Belize
05 Nov 2022 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LISA-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Belize, Mexico, Honduras
Exposed population 6 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 140 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (02 Nov 22:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Guatemala)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 140 km/h 0.4 m 443 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 140 km/h 0.4 m 443 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

140 km/h

Up to 6 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Nov 2022 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Belize5,647 
Tropical StormBelize, Mexico, Honduras123,947
+
Belize121,442 
Mexico220 
Honduras2,284 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 30 Oct 2022 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 31 Oct 2022 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 31 Oct 2022 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 31 Oct 2022 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 31 Oct 2022 18:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 01 Nov 2022 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 01 Nov 2022 06:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 01 Nov 2022 12:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 01 Nov 2022 18:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 02 Nov 2022 00:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 02 Nov 2022 06:00 133 -
- - - - - Honduras
GREEN 12 02 Nov 2022 12:00 140 -
- - - - - Belize
GREEN 13 02 Nov 2022 18:00 133 6 thousand
- - - - Belize, Mexico
GREEN 14 03 Nov 2022 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Belize
GREEN 15 03 Nov 2022 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 03 Nov 2022 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 03 Nov 2022 18:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 04 Nov 2022 00:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 04 Nov 2022 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 04 Nov 2022 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 04 Nov 2022 18:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 05 Nov 2022 00:00 36 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 05 Nov 2022 06:00 47 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Nov 2022 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmBelize4,088 
100-250 mmMexico, Belize, Dominican Republic, Guatemala417,858
+
Mexico190,087 
Dominican Republic15,102 
Belize204,827 
Guatemala7,840 
50-100 mmMexico, Dominican Republic, Belize, Jamaica, Guatemala, Honduras3,888,295
+
Mexico2,114,908 
Dominican Republic668,392 
Belize99,009 
Jamaica1,779 
Guatemala978,296 
Honduras25,910 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 30 Oct 2022 18:00 443 20 thousand
- - - - Dominican Republic
Blue 2 31 Oct 2022 00:00 188 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 31 Oct 2022 06:00 163 -
- - - - - Jamaica
Blue 4 31 Oct 2022 12:00 224 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 31 Oct 2022 18:00 161 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 01 Nov 2022 00:00 160 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 01 Nov 2022 06:00 168 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 01 Nov 2022 12:00 172 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 01 Nov 2022 18:00 136 -
- - - - - Honduras
Blue 10 02 Nov 2022 00:00 245 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 02 Nov 2022 06:00 140 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 02 Nov 2022 12:00 188 -
- - - - - Belize
Blue 13 02 Nov 2022 18:00 252 110 thousand
- - - - Mexico, Belize, Honduras
Blue 14 03 Nov 2022 00:00 128 2 thousand
- - - - Mexico, Belize, Guatemala
Blue 15 03 Nov 2022 06:00 128 Few people
- - - - Mexico, Guatemala
Blue 16 03 Nov 2022 12:00 49 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 03 Nov 2022 18:00 236 40 thousand
- - - - Mexico, Guatemala
Blue 18 04 Nov 2022 00:00 108 Few people
- - - - Mexico, Guatemala
Blue 19 04 Nov 2022 06:00 106 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 04 Nov 2022 12:00 40 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 04 Nov 2022 18:00 165 Few people
- - - - Mexico
Blue 22 05 Nov 2022 00:00 70 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 23 05 Nov 2022 06:00 241 10 thousand
- - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.4 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Nov 2022 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
0.5 - 1.0 mUnited States09 
0.25 - 0.5 mUnited States, Bahamas, Mexico, Belize, Venezuela456,743
+
United States48,379 
Bahamas6,883 
Mexico175,182 
Belize81,662 
Venezuela144,635 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 05 Nov 2022 06:00 UTC