Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for LISA-22
in Guatemala, Belize
03 Nov 2022 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LISA-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 50 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (06 Nov 01:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Guatemala)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 50 km/h 0.4 m 171 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 115 km/h 1.2 m 522 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

115 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 03 Nov 2022 18:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 30 Oct 2022 18:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 31 Oct 2022 00:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 31 Oct 2022 06:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 31 Oct 2022 12:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 31 Oct 2022 18:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 01 Nov 2022 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 01 Nov 2022 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 01 Nov 2022 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 01 Nov 2022 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 02 Nov 2022 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 02 Nov 2022 06:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 02 Nov 2022 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 02 Nov 2022 18:00 94 -
- - - - - Belize
GREEN 14 03 Nov 2022 00:00 97 -
- - - - - Belize
GREEN 15 03 Nov 2022 06:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 03 Nov 2022 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 03 Nov 2022 18:00 79 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Nov 2022 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmPanama1,029 
100-250 mmBritish Virgin Islands, Anguilla, Saint-Martin, Mexico, Virgin Islands, U.S., Guatemala, Colombia, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Panama6,663,709
+
British Virgin Islands706 
Mexico5,358 
Virgin Islands, U.S.698 
Anguilla14,614 
Saint-Martin504 
Guatemala124,592 
Colombia5,305,701 
Venezuela1,038,172 
Costa Rica80,303 
Panama93,056 
50-100 mmUnited States, Dominican Republic, British Virgin Islands, Mexico, Virgin Islands, U.S., Puerto Rico, Saint-Martin, Sint Maarten, Saint-Barthélemy, Antigua and Barbuda, Saba, Saint Eustatius, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Guadeloupe, Guatemala, Honduras, Martinique, El Salvador, Barbados, Colombia, Venezuela, Costa Rica, Panama, Guyana, Brazil21,625,873
+
United States514,616 
Dominican Republic915,659 
British Virgin Islands29,410 
Mexico1,697,582 
Virgin Islands, U.S.105,592 
Puerto Rico11,165 
Saint-Martin41,147 
Sint Maarten39,623 
Saint-Barthélemy10,440 
Antigua and Barbuda11,521 
Saba2,013 
Saint Eustatius4,449 
Saint Kitts and Nevis55,571 
Guadeloupe28,602 
Guatemala4,684,795 
Honduras1,096,232 
Martinique394,134 
El Salvador2,371,112 
Barbados203,454 
Colombia5,875,345 
Venezuela2,264,648 
Costa Rica434,354 
Panama820,307 
Guyana4,944 
Brazil9,148 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 30 Oct 2022 18:00 123 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 31 Oct 2022 00:00 51 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 31 Oct 2022 06:00 138 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 31 Oct 2022 12:00 96 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 31 Oct 2022 18:00 21 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 01 Nov 2022 00:00 48 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 01 Nov 2022 06:00 94 -
- - - - - Venezuela
Blue 8 01 Nov 2022 12:00 140 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 01 Nov 2022 18:00 47 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 02 Nov 2022 00:00 89 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 02 Nov 2022 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 02 Nov 2022 12:00 155 -
- - - - - Colombia
Blue 13 02 Nov 2022 18:00 150 110 thousand
- - - - Belize, Colombia
Blue 14 03 Nov 2022 00:00 104 1 thousand
- - - - Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Colombia, Venezuela
Blue 15 03 Nov 2022 06:00 79 -
- - - - - Colombia, Venezuela, Brazil
Blue 16 03 Nov 2022 12:00 143 -
- - - - - Guyana
Blue 17 03 Nov 2022 18:00 334 6.7 million
- - - United States, Dominican Republic, British Virgin Islands, Mexico, Virgin Islands, U.S., Puerto Rico, Anguilla, Saint-Martin, Sint Maarten, Saint-Barthélemy, Antigua and Barbuda, Saba, Saint Eustatius, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Guadeloupe, Guatemala, Honduras, Martinique, El Salvador, Barbados, Colombia, Venezuela, Costa Rica, Panama, Guyana, Brazil




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.4 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 03 Nov 2022 18:00 UTC