Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for LISA-22
in Guatemala, Belize
04 Nov 2022 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LISA-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 58 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (06 Nov 04:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Guatemala)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 58 km/h 0.4 m 100 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 115 km/h 1.2 m 522 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

115 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 04 Nov 2022 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 30 Oct 2022 18:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 31 Oct 2022 00:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 31 Oct 2022 06:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 31 Oct 2022 12:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 31 Oct 2022 18:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 01 Nov 2022 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 01 Nov 2022 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 01 Nov 2022 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 01 Nov 2022 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 02 Nov 2022 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 02 Nov 2022 06:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 02 Nov 2022 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 02 Nov 2022 18:00 94 -
- - - - - Belize
GREEN 14 03 Nov 2022 00:00 97 -
- - - - - Belize
GREEN 15 03 Nov 2022 06:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 03 Nov 2022 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 03 Nov 2022 18:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 04 Nov 2022 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 04 Nov 2022 06:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 04 Nov 2022 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Nov 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmAntigua and Barbuda, Guatemala, Colombia, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Panama, Guyana, Brazil4,247,018
+
Antigua and Barbuda16 
Guatemala13,659 
Colombia3,820,182 
Venezuela117,818 
Costa Rica102,050 
Panama191,297 
Guyana32 
Brazil1,961 
50-100 mmUnited States, Bahamas, Dominican Republic, Anguilla, Saint-Martin, Puerto Rico, Sint Maarten, Saint-Barthélemy, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Barbados, Colombia, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica, Panama, Guyana, Brazil11,360,445
+
United States498,130 
Bahamas803 
Dominican Republic682,175 
Anguilla14,614 
Saint-Martin37,428 
Puerto Rico19,957 
Sint Maarten22,100 
Saint-Barthélemy10,440 
Antigua and Barbuda91,801 
Montserrat4,377 
Guadeloupe294,262 
Mexico38,959 
Guatemala2,727,837 
Dominica7,552 
Honduras709,612 
El Salvador240,404 
Barbados272,113 
Colombia1,513,555 
Venezuela1,022,435 
Trinidad and Tobago689,053 
Costa Rica1,829,838 
Panama592,243 
Guyana12,422 
Brazil28,323 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 30 Oct 2022 18:00 123 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 31 Oct 2022 00:00 51 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 31 Oct 2022 06:00 138 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 31 Oct 2022 12:00 96 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 31 Oct 2022 18:00 21 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 01 Nov 2022 00:00 48 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 01 Nov 2022 06:00 94 -
- - - - - Venezuela
Blue 8 01 Nov 2022 12:00 140 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 01 Nov 2022 18:00 47 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 02 Nov 2022 00:00 89 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 02 Nov 2022 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 02 Nov 2022 12:00 155 -
- - - - - Colombia
Blue 13 02 Nov 2022 18:00 150 110 thousand
- - - - Belize, Colombia
Blue 14 03 Nov 2022 00:00 104 1 thousand
- - - - Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Colombia, Venezuela
Blue 15 03 Nov 2022 06:00 79 -
- - - - - Colombia, Venezuela, Brazil
Blue 16 03 Nov 2022 12:00 143 -
- - - - - Guyana
Blue 17 03 Nov 2022 18:00 171 8 thousand
- - - - Venezuela, Colombia
Blue 18 04 Nov 2022 00:00 147 10 thousand
- - - - Venezuela, Guyana, Colombia
Blue 19 04 Nov 2022 06:00 92 -
- - - - - Venezuela, Colombia
Blue 20 04 Nov 2022 12:00 608 4.2 million
- - - - United States, Bahamas, Dominican Republic, Anguilla, Saint-Martin, Puerto Rico, Sint Maarten, Saint-Barthélemy, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Mexico, Guatemala, Dominica, Honduras, El Salvador, Barbados, Colombia, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica, Panama, Guyana, Brazil




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.4 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 04 Nov 2022 12:00 UTC