Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for MANDOUS-22
in India, Sri Lanka
10 Dec 2022 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MANDOUS-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries India
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 72 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (09 Dec 21:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (India)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 72 km/h 0.5 m 597 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 72 km/h 0.5 m 597 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

72 km/h

Up to 70 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Dec 2022 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormIndia66,352 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 07 Dec 2022 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 07 Dec 2022 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 08 Dec 2022 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 08 Dec 2022 12:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 09 Dec 2022 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 09 Dec 2022 12:00 83 -
- - - - - India
GREEN 7 10 Dec 2022 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 10 Dec 2022 12:00 47 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Dec 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmIndia, Indonesia1,346,233
+
India7,523 
Indonesia1,338,710 
100-250 mmIndia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Indonesia, Maldives50,381,066
+
India37,122,436 
Sri Lanka1,342,402 
Thailand218,445 
Indonesia11,525,574 
Maldives172,207 
50-100 mmMyanmar, India, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Maldives119,730,340
+
Myanmar01 
India113,451,804 
Sri Lanka1,593,246 
Thailand2,805,743 
Malaysia41,076 
Indonesia1,765,823 
Maldives72,644 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 07 Dec 2022 00:00 255 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 07 Dec 2022 12:00 328 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 08 Dec 2022 00:00 316 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 08 Dec 2022 12:00 257 -
- - - - - India, Sri Lanka
Blue 5 09 Dec 2022 00:00 114 -
- - - - - India
Blue 6 09 Dec 2022 12:00 113 250 thousand
- - - - India
Blue 7 10 Dec 2022 00:00 170 170 thousand
- - - - India, Indonesia
Blue 8 10 Dec 2022 12:00 212 9.3 million
- - - - India, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Indonesia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

1.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.5m in Surat Thani, Ban Tha Krachai, Thailand. This height is estimated for 13/12/2022 11:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Dec 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
2.0 - 3.0 mIndonesia195 
1.0 - 2.0 mThailand7,532 
0.5 - 1.0 mThailand, Indonesia13,706
+
Thailand10,562 
Indonesia3,144 
0.25 - 0.5 mThailand, Sri Lanka, Indonesia13,609
+
Thailand9,855 
Sri Lanka2,512 
Indonesia1,241 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 10 Dec 2022 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
13/12/2022 11:00 Surat Thani, Ban Tha Krachai Thailand  1.5
13/12/2022 12:00 Chumphon, Ban Hin Sam Kon Thailand  1.4
13/12/2022 12:00 Chumphon, Ban Bang Man Thailand  1.4
13/12/2022 11:00 Chumphon, Ban Choeng Kra Thailand  1.4
13/12/2022 10:00 Prachuap Khiri Khan, Ban Chamuang Thailand  1.4
07/12/2022 10:00 Orissa, Chandipur India  0.3
09/12/2022 19:00 Tamil Nadu, Ennore India  0.2
07/12/2022 10:00 Rakhine, Aindin Myanmar  0.2
08/12/2022 10:00 Tanintharyi, Kanmaw Kyun Bemagyauk Ywa Myanmar  0.2
08/12/2022 10:00 Tanintharyi, Kanmaw Kyun Mawgaungdon Ywa Myanmar  0.2
07/12/2022 03:00 Andhra Pradesh, Pakala India  0.2
07/12/2022 07:00 West Bengal, Bijavbati India  0.2
09/12/2022 12:00 Tamil Nadu, Kalapettai India  0.2
07/12/2022 11:00 Yangon, Ale-ywa Myanmar  0.2
07/12/2022 14:00 Tanintharyi, Kawthaung Myanmar  0.2
07/12/2022 07:00 Ranong, Ban Sin Hai Thailand  0.2
08/12/2022 20:00 Tanintharyi, Tawbyagyi Myanmar  0.2
07/12/2022 10:00 Ayeyarwaddy, Seikkyi Myanmar  0.2
09/12/2022 03:00 Tamil Nadu, Marakkanam India  0.2
07/12/2022 12:00 West Bengal, Gangra India  0.2
07/12/2022 03:00 Andhra Pradesh, Ullapalem India  0.2
07/12/2022 17:00 Mon, Kwanhla Myanmar  0.2
07/12/2022 01:00 North Eastern, Ammanthanaveli Sri Lanka  0.1
07/12/2022 10:00 Rakhine, Magyi Kyun Magyi-ywa Myanmar  0.1
07/12/2022 06:00 Ayeyarwaddy, Zibyugyaung Myanmar  0.1
07/12/2022 01:00 North Eastern, Brynthuraichenai Sri Lanka  0.1
10/12/2022 10:00 Krabi, Ban Khlong Sai Thailand  0.1
08/12/2022 08:00 Tamil Nadu, Thoothukkudi India  0.1
07/12/2022 09:00 Rakhine, Mawyen Myanmar  0.1
07/12/2022 20:00 Ayeyarwaddy, Alandaing Myanmar  0.1
10/12/2022 12:00 Tamil Nadu, Kattumavadi India  0.1
10/12/2022 11:00 Tamil Nadu, Kottaippattanam India  0.1
07/12/2022 11:00 Rakhine, Taik Kyun Taikkyua Myanmar  0.1
08/12/2022 09:00 Tanintharyi, Ale-man Kyun Ale-hman Myanmar  0.1
07/12/2022 02:00 North Eastern, Point Pedro Sri Lanka  0.1
07/12/2022 12:00 Jharkhand, Hukitala India  0.1
07/12/2022 16:00 Rakhine, Ye Kyun Taung-ywa Myanmar  0.1
07/12/2022 13:00 Chittagong, Kutubdia Island Lemsikhali Bangladesh  0.1
10/12/2022 22:00 Aceh, Pulau (Simalur) Simeulue Ballasetas Indonesia  0.1
07/12/2022 14:00 North Eastern, Panama Sri Lanka  0.1
07/12/2022 06:00 Orissa, Puri India  0.1
07/12/2022 13:00 Chittagong, Kutubdia Island Dhurung Bangladesh  0.1
10/12/2022 01:00 Andhra Pradesh, Vatturupallepalem India  0.1
07/12/2022 18:00 Barisal, Kanchanpur Bangladesh  0.1
07/12/2022 06:00 Chittagong, Jaliapara Bangladesh  0.1
07/12/2022 06:00 Orissa, Gopalpur India  0.1
07/12/2022 08:00 Khulna, Dubla Bangladesh  0.1
07/12/2022 13:00 Andhra Pradesh, Ammalapadu India  0.1
07/12/2022 08:00 Barisal, Char Bagala Bangladesh  0.1