Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ELLIE-22
in Australia
22 Dec 2022 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELLIE-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 68 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (22 Dec 17:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 68 km/h 0.5 m 589 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 68 km/h 0.5 m 589 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

68 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Dec 2022 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormAustralia129 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 22 Dec 2022 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 22 Dec 2022 12:00 68 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 3 22 Dec 2022 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Dec 2022 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmAustralia05 
100-250 mmAustralia3,660 
50-100 mmAustralia3,748 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 22 Dec 2022 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 22 Dec 2022 12:00 230 Few people
- - - - Australia
Blue 3 22 Dec 2022 18:00 589 2 thousand
- - - Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Northern Territory, Gribble Settlement, Australia. This height is estimated for 22/12/2022 22:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Dec 2022 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
0.25 - 0.5 mAustralia104 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 22 Dec 2022 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
22/12/2022 22:00 Northern Territory, Gribble Settlement Australia  0.2
23/12/2022 04:00 Kalimantan Tengah, Borneo Bapuju Indonesia  0.2
23/12/2022 02:00 Kalimantan Selatan, Borneo Pagatan Indonesia  0.2
23/12/2022 11:00 South Australia, Port Clinton Australia  0.2
22/12/2022 21:00 Northern Territory, Numbulwar Australia  0.1
24/12/2022 11:00 Western Australia, Useless Loop Australia  0.1
23/12/2022 10:00 Queensland, Dauan Island Dauan Australia  0.1
23/12/2022 07:00 Western Australia, Lynton Australia  0.1
22/12/2022 20:00 Queensland, Turtle Head Island Ok Village Australia  0.1
23/12/2022 13:00 South Australia, Port Neill Australia  0.1
24/12/2022 13:00 Western, Jara Papua New Guinea  0.1
25/12/2022 12:00 Kalimantan Selatan, Borneo Sungaianjar Indonesia  0.1