Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JERUTO-20
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 160028 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/12/20192020
1.A DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE 12 (JERUTO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 16/04/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.7 S / 82.7 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 1.5/2.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1004 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 410 SO: 280 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 16/04/2020 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
24H: 17/04/2020 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
36H: 17/04/2020 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
48H: 18/04/2020 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=1.5 CI=2.0

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 160028 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/12/20192020
1.A REMNANT LOW 12 (JERUTO)

2.A POSITION 2020/04/16 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 82.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 410 SW: 280 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/04/16 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
24H: 2020/04/17 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
36H: 2020/04/17 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
48H: 2020/04/18 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=1.5 CI=2.0

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 160028
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/12/20192020
1.A DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE 12 (JERUTO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 16/04/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.7 S / 82.7 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 1.5/2.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1004 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 410 SO: 280 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 16/04/2020 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
24H: 17/04/2020 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
36H: 17/04/2020 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
48H: 18/04/2020 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=1.5 CI=2.0

SANS AUCUNE DONNEE MICRO-ONDES RECENTE, LA POSITION DE JERUTO EST
ASSEZ INCERTAINE MAIS L'IMAGERIE SATELLITE CLASSIQUE PERMET D'ESTIMER
QUE LE CENTRE RESTE EXPOSE BIEN A L'OUEST DE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE
RESIDUELLE, SOUS L'EPAISSE BANDE DE CIRRUS QUI MARQUE LA BORDURE DU
JET D'OUEST SUBTROPICAL. LE SYSTEME EST ESTIME AVOIR UNE ORGANISATION
DE BASSES COUCHES SUFFISAMMENT DEGRADEE MAINTENANT POUR ETRE
CONSIDERE COMME DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE AVEC DES VENTS ATTEIGNANT
ENCORE LES 30 KT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD, ESSENTIELLEMENT PAR EFFET
DE GRADIENT.

LE SYSTEME CONTINUE SON DEPLACEMENT SUR LA FACADE NORD-OUEST DES
HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. UNE
TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST EST ENVISAGEE
JUSQU'A JEUDI SOIR SUIVI D'UN COMBLEMENT PLUS OU MOINS SUR PLACE
D'ICI LA FIN DE SEMAINE VERS 80E.

LA FENETRE DE CONDITIONS FAVORABLES EST MAINTENANT REFERMER AVEC LE
RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST AU CONTACT D'UNE BRANCHE
DE JET SUBTROPICAL, ASSOCIE A DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE.

DU GRAND FRAIS VA SE MANTENIR DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD PAR EFFET DE
GRADIENT AVEC LES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 36H. CECI EST LE DERNIER BULLETIN SUR CE SYSTEME SAUF
RE-INTENSIFICATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 160028
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/12/20192020
1.A REMNANT LOW 12 (JERUTO)

2.A POSITION 2020/04/16 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 82.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 410 SW: 280 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/04/16 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
24H: 2020/04/17 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
36H: 2020/04/17 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
48H: 2020/04/18 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=1.5 CI=2.0

WITHOUT ANY RECENT MW IMAGERY TO LOCATE THE CENTER, THE CURRENT
POSITION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER CLASSICAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGEST WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE THAT THE CENTER IS STILL WELL EXPOSED TO
THE WEST OF THE RESIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY, BENEATH THE THICK
LAYER OF CIRRUS THAT MARKS THE EDGE OF THE WESTERLY SUBTROPICAL
JET-STREAM. THE SYSTEM IS ASSESSED TO HAVE NOW A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW
LEVELS CIRCULATION WITH 30 KT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE,
MAINLY DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT.

THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING OVER THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE. A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION MORE OR LESS
NEAR 80E BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE WINDOW OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IS NOW CLOSED, WITH THE INCREASING
NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRANCH, ASSOCIATED
TO MID-LEVELS DRY AIR INTRUSIONS.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHS
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS IS THE LAST WARNING UNLESS
RE-INTENSIFICATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 160015
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/04/2020
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 16/04/2020 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: REMNANT LOW 12 (JERUTO) 1004 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 82.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 400 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/04/16 AT 12 UTC:
17.5 S / 81.2 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW
24H, VALID 2020/04/17 AT 00 UTC:
18.4 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW

OTHER INFORMATION:
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE
GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. THIS IS THE LAST WARNING UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 151827 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/12/20192020
1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 12 (JERUTO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 15/04/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.2 S / 83.5 E
(SEIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 1.5/2.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1004 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 440 SO: 310 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 16/04/2020 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
24H: 16/04/2020 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
36H: 17/04/2020 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
48H: 17/04/2020 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=1.5 CI=2.5

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 151827 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/12/20192020
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12 (JERUTO)

2.A POSITION 2020/04/15 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 83.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 440 SW: 310 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/04/16 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
24H: 2020/04/16 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
36H: 2020/04/17 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
48H: 2020/04/17 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=1.5 CI=2.5

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 151827
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/12/20192020
1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 12 (JERUTO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 15/04/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.2 S / 83.5 E
(SEIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 1.5/2.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1004 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 440 SO: 310 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 16/04/2020 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
24H: 16/04/2020 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
36H: 17/04/2020 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
48H: 17/04/2020 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=1.5 CI=2.5

LES DONNEES ASCAT-B DE 1629Z ONT ETE UTILES POUR A LA FOIS LOCALISER
ET ESTIMER L'INTENSITE DE JERUTO. LE CENTRE EST RESTE EXPOSE A PLUS
DE 1 DEGRES DE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE QUI RESTE ENCORE BIEN MARQUEE
DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. SELON ASCAT-B, LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS
PRES DU CENTRE RESTENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD MAIS N'ATTEIGNENT PLUS
QUE LOCALEMENT 35 KT. EN CONSEQUENCE JERUTO EST DECLASSE EN
DEPRESSION TROPICALE.

LE SYSTEME CONTINUE SON DEPLACEMENT SUR LA FACADE NORD-OUEST DES
HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. SUR
LES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LE CAP S'EST LEGEREMENT REDRESSE VERS L'OUEST
EN RALENTISSANT. UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST EST ENVISAGEE JUSQU'A JEUDI SOIR SUIVI D'UN
COMBLEMENT PLUS OU MOINS SUR PLACE D'ICI LA FIN DE SEMAINE VERS 80E.

LA FENETRE DE CONDITIONS FAVORABLES EST MAINTENANT REFERMER AVEC LE
RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST A L'APPROCHE D'UNE BRANCHE
DE JET SUBTROPICAL, ASSOCIE A DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE.

CE SYSTEME NE CONCERNE PAS LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 151827
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/12/20192020
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12 (JERUTO)

2.A POSITION 2020/04/15 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 83.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 440 SW: 310 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/04/16 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
24H: 2020/04/16 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
36H: 2020/04/17 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
48H: 2020/04/17 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=1.5 CI=2.5

ASCAT-B DATA OF 1629Z WERE USEFUL TO LOCATE AND ASSESS THE STRENGTH
OF JEROTO. THE CENTER IS WELL EXPOSED AT MORE THAN 1 DEGREE FROM THE
DEEP CONVECTION THAT REMAINS ACTIVE OVER THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
ACCORDING TO ASCAT-B DATA, THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINS LOCATED WITHIN
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE BUT ONLY REACH LOCALLY 35 KT. THEREFORE,
JERUTO IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING OVER THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE. OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE HEADING HAS BEND
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AT A SLOWER PACE. A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS
TRACK IS EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION MORE
OR LESS NEAR 80E BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE WINDOW OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IS NOW CLOSE, WITH THE INCREASING
NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR DRIVEN BY A SUBTROPICAL JET BRANCH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST, ASSOCIATED TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSIONS.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE A THREAT TO ANY INHABITED AREAS=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 151205 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/12/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 12 (JERUTO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 15/04/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.2 S / 84.0 E
(SEIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 170 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 16/04/2020 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
24H: 16/04/2020 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
36H: 17/04/2020 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 17/04/2020 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
60H: 18/04/2020 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=2.0+.CI=2.5+

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 151205 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/12/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JERUTO)

2.A POSITION 2020/04/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 84.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 170 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/04/16 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2020/04/16 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
36H: 2020/04/17 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/04/17 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW
60H: 2020/04/18 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=2.0+.CI=2.5+

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 151205
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/12/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 12 (JERUTO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 15/04/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.2 S / 84.0 E
(SEIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 170 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 16/04/2020 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
24H: 16/04/2020 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
36H: 17/04/2020 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 17/04/2020 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
60H: 18/04/2020 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=2.0+;CI=2.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION A COMMENCE A SE
DECOUPLER DU CENTRE DU CIRCULATION SOUS L'INFLUENCE DU CISAILLEMENT
D'ALTITUDE, COMME ILLUSTRE PAR L'IMAGE SSMI 85GHZ DE 1000Z. LE CENTRE
DE CIRCULATION DE SURFACE EST MEME TEMPORAIREMENT APPARU SOUS LES
CIRRUS EN BORDURE NORD-OUEST DE LA CONVECTION SUR LES IMAGES
SATELLITES VERS 10Z. LES POUSSEES CONVECTIVES RESTENT CEPENDANT
VIRULENTES SUR LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. EN TENANT COMPTE DE L'EFFET DE
GRADIENT OCCASIONNE PAR LA PRESENCE D'UNE PUISSANTE CELLULE
ANTICYCLONIQUE AU SUD, IL EST PROBABLE QUE LES VENTS DU DEMI-CERCLE
SUD ATTEIGNENT ENCORE LE COUP DE VENT.

LE SYSTEME SE DEPLACE SUR LA FACADE NORD-OUEST DES HAUTES PRESSIONS
SUBTROPICALES DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN
DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-OUEST EST ENVISAGEE JUSQU'A JEUDI SOIR.
VENDREDI, UNE FOIS LE SYSTEME AFFAIBLI, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR REDESCEND
DANS LES BAS NIVEAUX CE QUI DEVRAIT FAIRE RALENTIR LE MOUVEMENT DU
MINIMUM RESIDUEL, AVANT UNE DERIVE EVENTUELLE VERS LE NORD-OUEST.

LA FENETRE DE CONDITIONS FAVORABLES A DEJA COMMENCE A SE REFERMER
AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST A L'APPROCHE D'UNE
BRANCHE DE JET SUBTROPICAL, ASSOCIE A DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. LA DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE DEVRAIT SE DISSOUDRE
D'ICI LA FIN DE WEEK-END PROCHAIN.

CE SYSTEME NE CONCERNE PAS LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 151205
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/12/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JERUTO)

2.A POSITION 2020/04/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 84.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 170 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/04/16 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2020/04/16 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
36H: 2020/04/17 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/04/17 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW
60H: 2020/04/18 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=2.0+;CI=2.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION BEGAN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE CENTER
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER SHEAR, AS ILLUSTRATED BY THE 85GHZ
1000Z SSMI IMAGE. THE SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS EVEN APPEARED
TEMPORARILY UNDER THE CIRRUS CLOUDS ON SAT IMAGERY AROUND 1000Z, ON
THE NORTH-WESTERN BORDER OF THE CONVECTION.
HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE BURSTS REMAIN POWERFUL OVER THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE EFFECTS OF THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT CAUSED BY A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CELL IN THE SOUTH, THE
WINDS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE ARE STILL LIKELY TO REACH GALE
FORCE.

THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING OVER THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE. A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK IS EXPECTED
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY, ONCE THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED, THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD COME BACK DOWN IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE RESIDUAL
LOW IS THUS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN BEFORE AN EVENTUAL NORTH-WESTWARD
DRIFT.

THE WINDOW OF FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO CLOSE,
WITH THE INCREASING NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR DRIVEN BY A SUBTROPICAL JET
BRANCH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, ASSOCIATED TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
INTRUSIONS. THE RESIDUAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSOLVE BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK-END.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE A THREAT TO ANY INHABITED AREAS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 151204
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/04/2020
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 15/04/2020 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JERUTO) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 84.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 50
NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/04/16 AT 00 UTC:
17.1 S / 82.3 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2020/04/16 AT 12 UTC:
18.1 S / 80.8 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 150643 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/12/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 12 (JERUTO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 15/04/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.8 S / 84.5 E
(QUINZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 170 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 90 SO: 100 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 15/04/2020 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
24H: 16/04/2020 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
36H: 16/04/2020 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 17/04/2020 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
60H: 17/04/2020 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=2.5+

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 150643 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/12/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JERUTO)

2.A POSITION 2020/04/15 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 84.5 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 170 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 90 SW: 100 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/04/15 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2020/04/16 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2020/04/16 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/04/17 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW
60H: 2020/04/17 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.5+

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 150643
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/12/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 12 (JERUTO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 15/04/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.8 S / 84.5 E
(QUINZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 170 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 90 SO: 100 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 15/04/2020 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
24H: 16/04/2020 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
36H: 16/04/2020 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 17/04/2020 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
60H: 17/04/2020 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=2.5+

BIEN QUE L'INFLUENCE DU CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST
SOIT EVIDENTE, DE FORTES POUSSEES CONVECTIVES ONT REUSSI A SE
MAINTENIR PRES DU CENTRE DE CIRCULATION AU COURS DES 12 DERNIERES
HEURES. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE LA NUIT DERNIERE (SSMIS DE 2154Z ET
0112Z) ILLUSTRENT BIEN CELA ET REVELENT EGALEMENT UNE CIRCULATION
CENTRALE PLUTOT BIEN DEFINIE. LES PASSES ASCAT-C ET ASCAT-B DE 0330Z
MONTRENT TOUTES DEUX LA PRESENCE DE COUP DE VENT SUR UNE LARGE
PORTION DU DEMI-CERCLE SUD. CETTE DISTRIBUTION ASYMETRIQUE DES VENTS
S'EXPLIQUE PAR LA PRESENCE D'UNE PUISSANTE CELLULE ANTICYCLONIQUE AU
SUD, QUI RENFORCE LES VENTS PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT.
L'ESTIMATION DVORAK DU CMRS EST EN ACCORD AVEC CES DONNEES
DIFFUSOMETRIQUES AINSI QU'AVEC LES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES
(ADT ET SATCON DU CIMSS). EN CONSEQUENCE, LE SYSTEME A ETE BAPTISE
JERUTO A 06Z.

LE SYSTEME SE DEPLACE SUR LA FACADE NORD-OUEST DES HAUTES PRESSIONS
SUBTROPICALES DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN
DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-OUEST EST ENVISAGEE JUSQU'A JEUDI SOIR.
VENDREDI, UNE FOIS LE SYSTEME AFFAIBLI, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR REDESCEND
DANS LES BAS NIVEAUX CE QUI DEVRAIT EMPECHER LA DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
DE S'EVACUER VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES.

LA FENETRE DE CONDITIONS FAVORABLES SE REFERME DES CE SOIR AVEC LE
RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST AU CONTACT D'UNE BRANCHE
DE JET SUBTROPICAL ASSOCIE A DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE. A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL DEVRAIT SE
DISSOUDRE RAPIDEMENT SUR PLACE OU EN DERIVANT LENTEMENT VERS LE
NORD-OUEST.

CE SYSTEME NE CONCERNE PAS LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 150643
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/12/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JERUTO)

2.A POSITION 2020/04/15 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 84.5 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 170 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 90 SW: 100 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/04/15 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2020/04/16 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2020/04/16 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/04/17 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW
60H: 2020/04/17 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.5+

DESPITE THE OBVIOUS INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER WIND SHEAR,
STRONG CONVECTIVE BURSTS HAVE MANAGED TO RESIST CLOSE TO THE CENTER
OVER THE LAST 12 HRS. THE MW IMAGES OF THE NIGHT (2154Z AND 0112Z
SSMIS SWATH) ILLUSTRATE THIS AND ALSO REVEAL A RATHER WELL-DEFINED
CENTRAL CIRCULATION. 0330Z ASCAT-B AND ASCAT-C SWATH BOTH SHOW GALE
FORCE WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THIS
ASYMETRIC WIND DISTRIBUTION IS EXPLAINED BY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CAUSED BY A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CELL IN THE SOUTH.
THE RSMC DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THESE SCATT
DATA AS WELL AS WITH THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES (CIMSS ADT AND
SATCON). CONSEQUENTLY, THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED JERUTO AT 06Z.

THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING OVER THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE. A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK IS EXPECTED
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY, ONCE THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED, THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD COME BACK DOWN IN THE LOW LEVELS, WHICH SHOULD
PREVENT THE RESIDUAL LOW TO EVACUATE TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES.

THE WINDOW OF FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS IS CLOSING TONIGHT, WITH THE
INCREASING NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR DRIVEN BY A SUBTROPICAL JET BRANCH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
INTRUSIONS. FROM FRIDAY, THE LOW IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY DISSOLVE
WHILE REMAINING STATIONARY OR SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH-WESTWARD.

THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO THREATEN ANY INHABITED AREAS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 150631
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/04/2020
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 15/04/2020 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JERUTO) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 84.5 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
275 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 50
NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/04/15 AT 18 UTC:
17.0 S / 83.2 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2020/04/16 AT 06 UTC:
18.2 S / 81.7 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>