Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DANIELLE-22
in Spain, Portugal

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Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 081438
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Danielle Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
300 PM GMT Thu Sep 08 2022

Satellite imagery this afternoon has shown Danielle develop a clear
comma-shaped cloud shield, a hallmark of an extratropical cyclone.
In addition, an ASCAT-B pass near 12Z showed a wind shift,
indicative of a front, that extended from the center of the cyclone
northeastward. Based on these data, Danielle has been classified as
post-tropical and this is the last NHC advisory. Peak winds in the
ASCAT pass were just above 50 kt, so the intensity of Danielle was
lowered slightly to 55 kt. It is worth noting that the peak winds
are generally not representative of the impacts associated with
extratropical cyclones and gale- to storm-force winds extend well
from the center of Danielle.

Danielle has begun its long-awaited counterclockwise loop, which
should take another 36 to 48 h to complete. After that, the
post-tropical cyclone is forecast to move initially southeastward,
then eastward as it is caught within the flow of a broader
mid-latitude trough moving eastward over the northeastern Atlantic.
The track forecast for the post-tropical cyclone is based heavily on
the multi-model consensus TVCN. All guidance indicates the cyclone
will gradually weaken, both in terms of maximum winds and size
through the end of the forecast period.

Danielle continues to produce a large area of very rough seas over
the central-north Atlantic. More information about the
post-tropical cyclone can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by
the UKMET office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high-
seas-forecast. Information can also be found in Meteo France's High
Seas Forecast at weather.gmdss.org/II.html.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 47.9N 31.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 09/0000Z 49.5N 31.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 09/1200Z 49.9N 33.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 10/0000Z 48.3N 33.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 10/1200Z 45.2N 29.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 11/0000Z 43.4N 23.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/1200Z 41.5N 19.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/1200Z 41.0N 13.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1200Z 43.0N 9.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 081438
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Danielle Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
300 PM GMT Thu Sep 08 2022

...DANIELLE NOW POST-TROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.9N 31.0W
ABOUT 715 MI...1145 KM NNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Danielle was located near latitude 47.9 North, longitude 31.0 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near
14 mph (22 km/h). The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to make a
gradual counter-clockwise loop during the next 36 h, and then move
generally southeastward to east-southeastward through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Danielle is forecast to remain a large
post-tropical cyclone over the north Atlantic for the next several
days, even as its peak winds slowly decrease.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2. Additional information may also be found found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21
EGRR and on the web at
metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high-
seas-forecast/.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 081437
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052022
1500 UTC THU SEP 08 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.9N 31.0W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 90SE 90SW 70NW.
34 KT.......200NE 190SE 180SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 520SE 460SW 260NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.9N 31.0W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 47.2N 31.4W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 49.5N 31.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 49.9N 33.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...170NE 130SE 150SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 48.3N 33.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 150SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 45.2N 29.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 43.4N 23.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 100SE 150SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 41.5N 19.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 100SE 130SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 41.0N 13.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 43.0N 9.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 47.9N 31.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW AND IN FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET
OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR.

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 080835
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052022
0900 UTC THU SEP 08 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.8N 32.0W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 110SE 90SW 50NW.
34 KT.......190NE 190SE 180SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 480SE 480SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.8N 32.0W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 46.2N 32.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 48.5N 30.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 49.9N 31.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...170NE 130SE 150SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 49.5N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 150SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 47.2N 31.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 44.4N 26.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 100SE 150SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 42.8N 21.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 100SE 130SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 41.5N 14.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 43.3N 9.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 46.8N 32.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 080835
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Danielle Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
900 AM GMT Thu Sep 08 2022

Danielle is losing its tropical characteristics. The deep convection
has completely eroded across the southwestern portion of the
circulation. There is no longer an eye-like feature as seen
yesterday, and the system is taking on characteristics more similar
to the comma-shaped cloud shield of a mid-latitude cyclone. The
latest Dvorak intensity estimates suggest that Danielle is no longer
a hurricane, and the initial intensity has been decreased to 60 kt
for this advisory.

The cyclone is expected to quickly complete extratropical transition
through this morning due to higher shear, interaction with a mid- to
upper-level trough just to its west, and cool SSTs along its
forecast track. These conditions are also expected to cause Danielle
to continue weakening through the remainder of the forecast period.
The latest NHC intensity forecast was once again tweaked slightly
lower than the previous one, mainly to adjust for the lower initial
intensity.

Danielle is moving northeastward at 14 kt, and this general motion
should continue for the next few hours. A slow down and
counterclockwise loop is expected to occur later today and Friday
when the cyclone interacts with the trough that is expected to cut
off. After that time, a faster motion to the southeast is forecast,
which should take the extratropical cyclone toward western Europe by
the end of the period. The NHC track forecast was adjusted a little
to the right after the counterclockwise loop due to an overall shift
in the model guidance.

Danielle continues to produce a large area of very rough seas over
the central-north Atlantic. More information can be found in the
High Seas Forecasts issued by the Ocean Prediction Center under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. The UK Met Office also has
information in High Seas Forecasts for the west Central and east
Central sections issued under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web
at metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high-
seas-forecast. Meteo France's High Seas Forecast also includes
information regarding Danielle at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 46.8N 32.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 48.5N 30.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 09/0600Z 49.9N 31.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 09/1800Z 49.5N 33.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 10/0600Z 47.2N 31.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 10/1800Z 44.4N 26.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/0600Z 42.8N 21.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/0600Z 41.5N 14.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/0600Z 43.3N 9.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 080835
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Danielle Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
900 AM GMT Thu Sep 08 2022

...DANIELLE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM BUT STILL PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF ROUGH SEAS...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...46.8N 32.0W
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM NNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danielle was
located near latitude 46.8 North, longitude 32.0 West. Danielle is
moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A slow
counterclockwise turn is forecast today and Friday, followed by a
motion toward the southeast over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Danielle is expected to slowly weaken and
transition to a post-tropical cyclone today, with further weakening
anticipated through the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 080234
TCDAT5

Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
300 AM GMT Thu Sep 08 2022

Danielle is beginning to feel the effects of an approaching mid-to
upper-level trough just to its west. There has been some erosion of
the deep convection over the southern portion of the circulation,
likely due to increasing southwesterly shear, while the eye has
filled with cloud cover. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates have
overall lowered since the previous advisory, and a blend of these
values suggest the cyclone's initial intensity has decreased to 65
kt.

The cyclone is expected to undergo extratropical transition through
Thursday morning due to the higher shear, interaction with the
trough, and sharply cooler SSTs along its forecast track. These
conditions are also expected to cause Danielle to gradually weaken.
The latest NHC intensity forecast was tweaked slightly lower than
the previous one, and closely follows the various multi-model
consensus values.

Danielle is moving northeastward at 15 kt, and this general motion
should continue through tonight. A slow down and counterclockwise
loop is expected to occur on Thursday and Friday when the cyclone
interacts with the trough that is expected to cut off. After that
time, a faster motion to the southeast is forecast, which should
take the extratropical cyclone toward western Europe by the end of
the period. The NHC track forecast is little changed from the
previous one, and is near the latest consensus aids.

Danielle continues to produce a large area of very rough seas over
the central-north Atlantic. More information can be found in the
High Seas Forecasts issued by the Ocean Prediction Center under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. The UK Met Office also has
information in High Seas Forecasts for the west Central and east
Central sections issued under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web
at metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high-
seas-forecast


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 45.6N 32.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 47.2N 30.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 49.3N 30.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 09/1200Z 50.0N 32.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 10/0000Z 48.6N 32.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 10/1200Z 45.8N 28.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/0000Z 44.0N 24.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/0000Z 41.6N 15.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/0000Z 42.9N 9.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 080234
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Danielle Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
300 AM GMT Thu Sep 08 2022

...DANIELLE SLOWLY WEAKENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...45.6N 32.9W
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM NNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Danielle was
located near latitude 45.6 North, longitude 32.9 West. Danielle is
moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue through tonight. A slow counterclockwise
turn is forecast Thursday and Friday, followed by a motion toward
the southeast over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Danielle is expected to slowly weaken and transition to a
post-tropical cyclone on Thursday, with further weakening
anticipated through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 080234
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052022
0300 UTC THU SEP 08 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.6N 32.9W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 110SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT.......180NE 200SE 180SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 420SE 420SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.6N 32.9W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 45.1N 33.6W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 47.2N 30.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 160SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 49.3N 30.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 50.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 130SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 48.6N 32.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 45.8N 28.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 110SE 150SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 44.0N 24.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 100SE 130SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 41.6N 15.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 42.9N 9.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.6N 32.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 072034
TCDAT5

Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
900 PM GMT Wed Sep 07 2022

Danielle has generally changed little since this morning and it
remains an impressive hurricane for being at a relatively
high latitude of around 45 N. The system continues to have a
large eye with a fairly symmetric convective pattern surrounding it.
The Dvorak estimates at 18Z range from 65 to 77 kt, and on this
basis, the initial intensity is held at 70 kt.

A mid-to upper-level trough is quickly approaching Danielle, and
it should cause an increase in shear soon. The higher shear,
interaction with the trough, and sharply cooler SSTs along the
predicted track should cause Danielle to complete extratropical
transition on Thursday and cause the cyclone to gradually decay.
The intensity models are in good agreement, and the NHC intensity
forecast is just an update of the previous one.

Danielle is moving northeastward at 14 kt, which is the fastest this
system has moved in quite some time. This general motion should
continue through tonight, however, a slow down and counterclockwise
loop is expected to occur on Thursday and Friday when Danielle
interacts with the trough that is expected to cut off. After that
time, a faster motion to the southeast is forecast, which should
take the extratropical cyclone toward western Europe by the end of
the period. The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the
previous one, trending toward the latest consensus aids.

Danielle continues to produce a large area of very rough seas over
the central-north Atlantic. More information can be found in the
High Seas Forecasts issued by the Ocean Prediction Center under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. The UK Met Office also has
information in High Seas Forecasts for the west Central and east
Central sections issued under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web
at metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high-
seas-forecast


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 44.9N 34.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 46.4N 32.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 48.7N 31.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 09/0600Z 50.4N 31.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 09/1800Z 49.7N 33.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 10/0600Z 47.3N 31.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/1800Z 45.3N 27.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/1800Z 42.1N 17.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1800Z 42.3N 10.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 072033
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Danielle Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
900 PM GMT Wed Sep 07 2022

...DANIELLE HOLDING ITS STRENGTH...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.9N 34.9W
ABOUT 625 MI...1010 KM NW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Danielle was
located near latitude 44.9 North, longitude 34.9 West. Danielle is
moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue through tonight. A slow counterclockwise
turn is forecast Thursday and Friday, followed by a motion toward
the southeast over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Danielle should begin to weaken tonight and transition
to a post-tropical cyclone on Thursday, with further weakening
anticipated through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 072032
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052022
2100 UTC WED SEP 07 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.9N 34.9W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 110SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT.......180NE 200SE 180SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 420SE 360SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.9N 34.9W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.4N 35.6W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 46.4N 32.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 160SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 48.7N 31.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 50.4N 31.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 130SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 49.7N 33.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 150SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 47.3N 31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 120SE 160SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 45.3N 27.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 120SE 150SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 42.1N 17.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 42.3N 10.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.9N 34.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 071441
TCDAT5

Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
300 PM GMT Wed Sep 07 2022

Danielle is an impressive hurricane for so far north and east in
the Atlantic Ocean, thanks to near-record warm SSTs in the vicinity
and a high-latitude blocking pattern. Satellite images show that
the cyclone has a large eye with a broken eyewall, although
recently the eyewall convection has degraded a bit. The current
intensity is set to 70 kt, a blend of the recent TAFB/SAB fixes. A
recent scatterometer pass also show that the hurricane has grown in
size, and this is reflected in the analysis and size forecast.
Additionally, drifting buoy 41047 has reported 984.7 mb well
outside of the eye, and the central pressure has been lowered to be
in better agreement with this data.

The hurricane is already showing some signs of extratropical
transition, with the cloud pattern starting to elongate on the
northern side. This is a harbinger of an incoming trough which, in
combination with cold SSTs, should result in a quick extratropical
transition of Danielle in about 24 hours. Global and regional
hurricane models are in good agreement on a gradual decline in wind
speeds during the forecast period, and little change was made to
the previous NHC intensity forecast.

Danielle is moving northeastward at about 14 kt. The cyclone is
expected to execute a large counterclockwise loop due to a
mid-latitude trough diving southward from the Canadian Maritimes.
Danielle should merge with this trough and be the dominant feature
as it moves east-southeastward across the north Atlantic. Only
small changes were made to the last forecast, and the new forecast
is close to the Atlantic tropical cyclone consensus track aid TVCA.

The tropical cyclone continues to produce a large area of very
rough seas over the central-north Atlantic. More information can be
found in the High Seas Forecasts issued by the Ocean Prediction
Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. The UK Met Office
also has information in High Seas Forecasts for the west Central
and east Central sections issued under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and
on the web at
metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high-
seas-forecast


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 43.7N 36.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 45.0N 34.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 47.1N 31.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 09/0000Z 49.5N 31.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 09/1200Z 50.1N 33.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 10/0000Z 48.6N 33.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/1200Z 46.6N 30.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/1200Z 42.5N 20.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1200Z 42.0N 11.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 071438
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Danielle Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
300 PM GMT Wed Sep 07 2022

...DANIELLE REMAINS A LARGE HURRICANE OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.7N 36.3W
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM NW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Danielle was
located near latitude 43.7 North, longitude 36.3 West. Danielle is
moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue today. A slow
counterclockwise turn is forecast Friday and early Saturday,
followed by a turn toward the south-southeast to southeast over the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Danielle should begin to weaken later today and transition
to a post-tropical cyclone on Thursday, with further weakening
anticipated through Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 071438
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052022
1500 UTC WED SEP 07 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.7N 36.3W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 110SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT.......180NE 200SE 180SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 330SE 330SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.7N 36.3W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.3N 37.1W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 45.0N 34.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 170SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 47.1N 31.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 49.5N 31.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...190NE 150SE 130SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 50.1N 33.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 150SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 48.6N 33.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 120SE 160SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 46.6N 30.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 120SE 150SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 42.5N 20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 42.0N 11.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.7N 36.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 070842
TCDAT5

Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
900 AM GMT Wed Sep 07 2022

Danielle's cloud pattern has significantly improved over the past 6
hours. The banding eye feature has warmed back up and cleared out,
and the cloud tops are cooling in two prominent curved bands located
in the north and south semicircles. The subjective Dvorak T-numbers
from TAFB and SAB have increased, and a UW-CIMSS OPEN-AIIR satellite
intensity analysis yields 70-75 kt. These data and the earlier
SAROPS surface wind retrieval support raising the initial intensity
to 70 kt for this advisory.

Danielle should continue moving over marginally warm waters for
just a few more hours, so some fluctuations in strength, similar to
what the cyclone has just undergone, are still possible.
Satellite imagery and global model data indicate that a
favorable position of a polar jet finger associated with the
approaching baroclinic zone may be dynamically influencing
Danielle's short-term intensification. By early Thursday, the
cyclone is expected to traverse a sharp sea surface temperature
gradient of 20C or less. These cooler waters, along with the
eventual loss of dynamic forcing should cause a gradual weakening
trend through the early next week.

Danielle's initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or
050/12 kt. Once again, there is no significant change to the NHC
forecast philosophy. The hurricane should continue accelerating in
response to a vigorous baroclinic system approaching from the
northwest midway between Newfoundland and Danielle. Danielle
is forecast to interact and merge with the system mentioned above
late Thursday night into Friday. Over the weekend, the large
post-tropical storm-force low is expected to slip south back into
the deep-layer mid-latitude westerlies, turn south-southeastward to
southeastward, and continue in this general heading through early
next week. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous one and is
close to the various multi-model consensus aids.

Danielle is producing a vast area of very rough seas over the
central-north Atlantic. More information can be found in the
High Seas Forecasts issued by the Ocean Prediction Center under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. The UK Met Office also has
information in High Seas Forecasts for the west Central and east
Central sections issued under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web
at metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high-
seas-forecast


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 43.4N 38.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 44.4N 35.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 46.3N 33.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 48.6N 32.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 09/0600Z 50.5N 32.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 09/1800Z 50.0N 34.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/0600Z 48.6N 33.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/0600Z 43.9N 23.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0600Z 42.2N 15.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 070842
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Danielle Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
900 AM GMT Wed Sep 07 2022

...RESILIENT DANIELLE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE WHILE ACCELERATING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...
...MASSIVE HIGH SEAS AREA EXTENDS NEARLY 350 MILES FROM DANIELLE'S
EYE...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.4N 38.1W
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM NW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Danielle was
located near latitude 43.4 North, longitude 38.1 West. Danielle
has begun moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue with acceleration
through Thursday. A slow counterclockwise turn is forecast Friday
and early Saturday, followed by a turn toward the south-southeast
to southeast over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. A gradual weakening is forecast to commence
on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 070841
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052022
0900 UTC WED SEP 07 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.4N 38.1W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT.......130NE 150SE 140SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 300SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.4N 38.1W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.0N 38.8W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 44.4N 35.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 46.3N 33.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 48.6N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 50.5N 32.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 50.0N 34.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 140SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 48.6N 33.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 140SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 43.9N 23.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 42.2N 15.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.4N 38.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 070233
TCDAT5

Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
300 AM GMT Wed Sep 07 2022

This morning's conventional satellite presentation indicates
little change in Danielle's cloud pattern since yesterday morning.
However, a recent SSMI/S microwave image shows a subtle vertical
tilt toward the east. The initial intensity is held at 65 kt for
this advisory and is based on a blend of the subjective and AiDT
objective satellite intensity estimates and an earlier STAR SAR/S1
surface wind retrieval that indicated winds of 70 kt.

Danielle should remain over marginally warm waters for the next
12-18 hours. Subsequently, little change in strength is expected
during that time. By early Thursday, Danielle will move over a
sharp surface temperature gradient of 22C or less. This negative
oceanic contribution, combined with the loss of dynamic forcing
after the cyclone merges with the approaching baroclinic system,
should induce a slow weakening trend through the end of the period.

Danielle's initial motion is estimated to be east-northeastward, or
060/11 kt. There is no significant change to the NHC forecast
philosophy. Danielle should continue accelerating in response to a
vigorous baroclinic system approaching from the northwest Atlantic
east of the Newfoundland coast. Danielle is forecast to interact
with the system mentioned above late Thursday night. On Friday, the
two systems are predicted to merge and become a larger and strong
extratropical low with asymmetric deep warm core characteristics
typical of warm seclusions. Over the weekend, the large
post-tropical low is expected to turn east-southeastward and
maintain this general motion through early next week.

Danielle is producing a vast area of very rough seas over the
central-north Atlantic. More information can be found in the
High Seas Forecasts issued by the Ocean Prediction Center under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.
The UK Met Office also has information in High Seas Forecasts for
the west Central and east Central sections issued under WMO header
FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high-
seas-forecast


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 42.7N 39.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 43.6N 37.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 45.4N 34.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 47.6N 32.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 09/0000Z 50.0N 32.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 09/1200Z 50.9N 34.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/0000Z 48.9N 34.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/0000Z 45.3N 26.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0000Z 43.1N 18.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 070231
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Danielle Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
300 AM GMT Wed Sep 07 2022

...DANIELLE ACCELERATING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST...
...CYCLONE'S PRODUCING A VAST AREA OF HIGH SEAS OVER THE
CENTRAL-NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.7N 39.3W
ABOUT 725 MI...1170 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Danielle was
located near latitude 42.7 North, longitude 39.3 West. Danielle is
moving toward the east-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion with a further increase in forward speed is expected
through Thursday. A slow counterclockwise turn is forecast at the
end of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 070231
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052022
0300 UTC WED SEP 07 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.7N 39.3W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT.......130NE 150SE 140SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.7N 39.3W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.5N 39.9W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 43.6N 37.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 45.4N 34.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 47.6N 32.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 50.0N 32.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 50.9N 34.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 140SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 48.9N 34.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 140SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 45.3N 26.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 43.1N 18.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.8N 39.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 062040
TCDAT5

Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
900 PM GMT Tue Sep 06 2022

Danielle is holding its own over the north-central Atlantic. The
cyclone's structure has stabilized since early this morning and the
cloud tops have been cooling slightly over the past several hours,
suggesting that any weakening that had been occurring overnight has
temporarily ended. The initial intensity is being held at 65 kt for
this advisory, which is based on the latest subjective Dvorak
intensity estimate from SAB, and objective data from UW-CIMSS.

The hurricane continues to move slowly east-northeastward, or 070/6
kt. There is no change to the forecast track reasoning. Danielle is
expected to accelerate east-northeastward tonight in the increasing
flow ahead of a digging upper-level trough. This trough is forecast
to spawn a baroclinic system west of Danielle by late this week,
forcing it to make a cyclonic loop while the two systems merge into
a larger extratropical low. The merged system is then forecast to
move east-southeastward to southeastward over the weekend. There
were no significant changes to the NHC track forecast compared to
the previous advisory, as model guidance remains in good agreement.

Danielle is forecast to continue over SSTs of about 25 degrees C
over the next 18-24 h, so only minor fluctuations in strength is
indicated during that time. However, by late Wednesday the cyclone
should cross a tight SST gradient and begin traversing over waters
of 20 degrees C or less for the remainder of the forecast period.
The combination of these cooler waters and the interaction with the
baroclinic system should cause extratropical transition to complete
by Thursday. The latest NHC intensity forecast closely follows the
latest multi-model consensus.

Danielle is producing a large area of very rough seas over the
central-north Atlantic. More information can be found in the
High Seas Forecasts issued by the Ocean Prediction Center under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 42.5N 40.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 43.1N 38.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 44.6N 35.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 46.5N 33.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 48.8N 31.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 09/0600Z 50.3N 32.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/1800Z 50.0N 33.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/1800Z 47.1N 29.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1800Z 44.1N 22.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 062039
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Danielle Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
900 PM GMT Tue Sep 06 2022

...DANIELLE PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DANGEROUS SEAS OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.5N 40.3W
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Danielle was
located near latitude 42.5 North, longitude 40.3 West. Danielle is
moving toward the east-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster
east-northeastward motion is expected to begin by tonight. A slow
counterclockwise turn is then forecast to occur at the end of the
week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 062039
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052022
2100 UTC TUE SEP 06 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.5N 40.3W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT.......130NE 150SE 140SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.5N 40.3W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.3N 40.9W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 43.1N 38.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 44.6N 35.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 46.5N 33.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 48.8N 31.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 50.3N 32.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 140SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 50.0N 33.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 140SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 47.1N 29.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 44.1N 22.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.5N 40.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 061611

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 06.09.2022

TROPICAL STORM EARL ANALYSED POSITION : 23.4N 65.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.09.2022 0 23.4N 65.6W 998 42
0000UTC 07.09.2022 12 24.5N 65.9W 994 43
1200UTC 07.09.2022 24 25.6N 65.8W 990 47
0000UTC 08.09.2022 36 27.2N 65.8W 982 47
1200UTC 08.09.2022 48 28.9N 65.6W 977 48
0000UTC 09.09.2022 60 30.8N 64.4W 974 54
1200UTC 09.09.2022 72 33.3N 61.9W 971 60
0000UTC 10.09.2022 84 37.3N 57.9W 961 79
1200UTC 10.09.2022 96 41.7N 54.4W 955 76
0000UTC 11.09.2022 108 43.9N 51.1W 969 66
1200UTC 11.09.2022 120 45.3N 46.9W 985 43
0000UTC 12.09.2022 132 46.8N 46.0W 984 43
1200UTC 12.09.2022 144 47.1N 42.2W 986 37

HURRICANE KAY ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 109.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.09.2022 0 17.8N 109.5W 979 53
0000UTC 07.09.2022 12 18.9N 111.6W 974 58
1200UTC 07.09.2022 24 20.3N 113.2W 970 63
0000UTC 08.09.2022 36 22.2N 114.1W 970 62
1200UTC 08.09.2022 48 24.2N 114.8W 975 54
0000UTC 09.09.2022 60 26.4N 116.0W 981 49
1200UTC 09.09.2022 72 27.7N 117.2W 987 41
0000UTC 10.09.2022 84 28.9N 118.8W 992 35
1200UTC 10.09.2022 96 29.5N 120.5W 996 29
0000UTC 11.09.2022 108 29.5N 121.9W 1000 24
1200UTC 11.09.2022 120 29.3N 122.9W 1005 20
0000UTC 12.09.2022 132 29.0N 124.0W 1009 21
1200UTC 12.09.2022 144 28.0N 124.7W 1010 19

HURRICANE DANIELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 41.9N 41.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.09.2022 0 41.9N 41.7W 981 46
0000UTC 07.09.2022 12 42.6N 40.1W 978 49
1200UTC 07.09.2022 24 43.8N 37.5W 974 51
0000UTC 08.09.2022 36 45.5N 34.2W 973 51
1200UTC 08.09.2022 48 47.7N 31.4W 976 48
0000UTC 09.09.2022 60 50.0N 30.9W 975 45
1200UTC 09.09.2022 72 51.8N 32.6W 977 42
0000UTC 10.09.2022 84 48.8N 35.2W 984 45
1200UTC 10.09.2022 96 46.4N 29.3W 985 37
0000UTC 11.09.2022 108 45.1N 27.2W 989 35
1200UTC 11.09.2022 120 42.0N 23.9W 994 34
0000UTC 12.09.2022 132 41.0N 19.2W 994 28
1200UTC 12.09.2022 144 41.8N 15.9W 995 28

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 10.5N 30.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.09.2022 96 10.9N 31.7W 1010 26
0000UTC 11.09.2022 108 11.8N 35.2W 1010 28
1200UTC 11.09.2022 120 12.4N 38.2W 1009 30
0000UTC 12.09.2022 132 14.1N 40.8W 1007 35
1200UTC 12.09.2022 144 15.5N 43.8W 1006 36

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 37.4N 61.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.09.2022 108 37.7N 60.5W 1000 41
1200UTC 11.09.2022 120 36.7N 59.3W 1000 39
0000UTC 12.09.2022 132 35.5N 61.2W 1000 36
1200UTC 12.09.2022 144 34.2N 60.9W 998 32


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 061610

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 061431
TCDAT5

Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
300 PM GMT Tue Sep 06 2022

Danielle's overall appearance has changed little this morning. The
system remains characterized by fragmented deep convection within a
symmetrical and vertically stacked circulation. In addition, an eye
feature has remained generally identifiable in visible satellite
imagery. The latest Dvorak CI values of 4.0 from TAFB and SAB also
suggest little change in intensity, and thus the system will be kept
as a 65-kt hurricane for this advisory.

The hurricane has slowed its forward motion, and over the past 12-h
the system has been moving east-northeastward at around 5 kt.
Danielle is expected to accelerate east-northeastward tonight in the
increasing flow ahead of a digging upper-trough. This trough is
forecast to spawn a baroclinic system west of Danielle by late this
week, forcing it to make a cyclonic loop while the two systems merge
into a larger extratropical low. The merged system is then forecast
to move east-southeastward to southeastward over the weekend. There
was little change to the NHC track forecast compared to the previous
advisory.

Danielle is forecast to continue over SSTs of about 25 degrees C
over the next 12-24 h, so little change in strength is indicated
during that time. However, on Wednesday the cyclone should cross a
tight SST gradient and begin traversing over waters of 20 degrees C
or less for the remainder of the forecast period. The combination of
these cooler waters and the interaction with the baroclinic system
should cause extratropical transition to complete by Thursday. The
latest NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one,
and is close to the various multi-model consensus and SHIPS values.

Danielle is producing a large area of very rough seas over the
central-north Atlantic. Complete information on the High Seas
Forecasts can be found at the Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 42.2N 41.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 42.6N 39.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 43.7N 37.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 45.4N 34.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 47.5N 32.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 09/0000Z 49.5N 32.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/1200Z 50.1N 32.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/1200Z 48.2N 30.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1200Z 45.5N 24.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 061430
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Danielle Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
300 PM GMT Tue Sep 06 2022

...DANIELLE SLOWS DOWN OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.2N 41.2W
ABOUT 805 MI...1290 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Danielle was
located near latitude 42.2 North, longitude 41.2 West. Danielle is
moving toward the east-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster
east-northeastward motion is expected to begin by tonight. A slow
counter clockwise turn is then forecast to occur at the end of the
week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 061430
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052022
1500 UTC TUE SEP 06 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.2N 41.2W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE 110SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.2N 41.2W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.0N 41.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 42.6N 39.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 110SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 43.7N 37.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 130SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 45.4N 34.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 47.5N 32.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 30NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 49.5N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 160SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 50.1N 32.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 160SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 48.2N 30.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 45.5N 24.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.2N 41.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 060833
TCDAT5

Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
900 AM GMT Tue Sep 06 2022

Danielle's cloud pattern has degraded further this morning by
shedding its curved bands in the eastern semicircle. The remaining
outer bands have become more fragmented with cloud top
temperatures of only -47C. Dvorak final-T numbers are on the
decline, and a compromise of both TAFB's and SAB's intensity
estimates, along with the UW-CIMSS objective assessment, supports
lowering the initial intensity to 65 kt for this advisory.

Although Danielle is currently moving over relatively warm (25C)
oceanic surface temperatures, the cyclone should begin to lose its
tropical characteristics soon as it traverses cooler SSTs of less
than 22C during the next day or two. Guidance continues to
indicate that Danielle will complete its extratropical transition
on Thursday, although the vertical thermal structure shows the
system sustaining its warm core above 600 mb. Over the
weekend, deterministic cyclone phase analyses, and simulated IR
predictions show Danielle, as the dominant system, merging with a
baroclinic system approaching from the west. A warm seclusion
structure develops while the system occludes, or is cut-off north
of the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory and continues to lean toward the
IVCN intensity consensus model.

The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward at 7 kt, and
Danielle should continue moving in this heading through this
evening. Afterward, a turn toward the east-northeast by early
Wednesday, while accelerating, is anticipated. By the early
weekend, the cyclone is expected to interact with a baroclinic
system by rotating cyclonically north of the westerlies and
becoming a vastly larger extratropical low well west of the British
Isles. Once merged into one large, storm-force extratropical low,
the system should commence a general motion toward the
east-southeast on Sunday.

Danielle is producing huge seas over the central-north Atlantic.
Complete information on the High Seas Forecasts can be found at the
Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header
FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 42.1N 41.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 42.5N 40.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 43.3N 38.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 44.7N 35.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 46.5N 32.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 48.6N 31.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/0600Z 50.3N 31.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/0600Z 49.1N 32.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/0600Z 46.5N 25.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 060833
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052022
0900 UTC TUE SEP 06 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.1N 41.9W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE 110SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 240SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.1N 41.9W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.9N 42.3W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 42.5N 40.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 110SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 43.3N 38.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 130SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 44.7N 35.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 46.5N 32.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 48.6N 31.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 160SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 50.3N 31.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 160SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 49.1N 32.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 46.5N 25.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.1N 41.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 060833
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Danielle Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
900 AM GMT Tue Sep 06 2022

...DANIELLE ON A SLOW DECLINE...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.1N 41.9W
ABOUT 835 MI...1345 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Danielle was
located near latitude 42.1 North, longitude 41.9 West. Danielle is
moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through this evening. A turn toward the
east-northeast is expected by early Wednesday followed by a slow
counterclockwise turn at the end of the week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the
next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 060412

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 06.09.2022

HURRICANE KAY ANALYSED POSITION : 15.8N 107.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.09.2022 0 15.8N 107.8W 984 50
1200UTC 06.09.2022 12 17.5N 109.9W 984 51
0000UTC 07.09.2022 24 18.7N 112.0W 983 52
1200UTC 07.09.2022 36 20.3N 113.7W 981 52
0000UTC 08.09.2022 48 21.9N 114.8W 976 57
1200UTC 08.09.2022 60 23.8N 115.8W 977 51
0000UTC 09.09.2022 72 25.2N 116.9W 981 46
1200UTC 09.09.2022 84 26.2N 117.6W 986 38
0000UTC 10.09.2022 96 27.2N 118.3W 989 34
1200UTC 10.09.2022 108 28.3N 119.3W 995 30
0000UTC 11.09.2022 120 29.1N 120.3W 1000 25
1200UTC 11.09.2022 132 29.4N 121.8W 1004 23
0000UTC 12.09.2022 144 29.2N 122.8W 1008 20

TROPICAL STORM EARL ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 65.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.09.2022 0 22.5N 65.0W 1004 39
1200UTC 06.09.2022 12 23.3N 65.4W 1000 40
0000UTC 07.09.2022 24 24.2N 65.6W 997 42
1200UTC 07.09.2022 36 25.2N 65.4W 993 41
0000UTC 08.09.2022 48 26.7N 65.2W 987 44
1200UTC 08.09.2022 60 28.5N 64.9W 982 45
0000UTC 09.09.2022 72 30.4N 64.0W 977 51
1200UTC 09.09.2022 84 32.7N 61.7W 973 63
0000UTC 10.09.2022 96 35.3N 57.7W 963 76
1200UTC 10.09.2022 108 39.8N 52.4W 951 82
0000UTC 11.09.2022 120 43.3N 50.6W 958 69
1200UTC 11.09.2022 132 43.5N 50.6W 975 48
0000UTC 12.09.2022 144 43.6N 50.2W 986 41

HURRICANE DANIELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 41.4N 43.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.09.2022 0 41.4N 43.1W 977 57
1200UTC 06.09.2022 12 42.0N 41.9W 973 60
0000UTC 07.09.2022 24 42.8N 39.6W 968 59
1200UTC 07.09.2022 36 43.7N 37.1W 968 54
0000UTC 08.09.2022 48 45.2N 33.7W 966 57
1200UTC 08.09.2022 60 47.0N 30.7W 973 48
0000UTC 09.09.2022 72 49.0N 29.3W 979 43
1200UTC 09.09.2022 84 50.5N 31.7W 977 44
0000UTC 10.09.2022 96 48.3N 32.6W 981 43
1200UTC 10.09.2022 108 47.8N 28.6W 984 36
0000UTC 11.09.2022 120 46.3N 26.7W 990 36
1200UTC 11.09.2022 132 43.4N 22.5W 995 33
0000UTC 12.09.2022 144 41.3N 18.0W 997 29

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 16.4N 38.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.09.2022 60 17.2N 39.4W 1009 32
0000UTC 09.09.2022 72 18.7N 42.2W 1010 36
1200UTC 09.09.2022 84 20.0N 44.8W 1011 39
0000UTC 10.09.2022 96 21.4N 48.7W 1012 33
1200UTC 10.09.2022 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 9.5N 19.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.09.2022 60 9.5N 19.9W 1008 33
0000UTC 09.09.2022 72 10.6N 21.8W 1009 27
1200UTC 09.09.2022 84 10.7N 25.1W 1009 27
0000UTC 10.09.2022 96 10.8N 28.6W 1008 28
1200UTC 10.09.2022 108 11.3N 32.4W 1007 32
0000UTC 11.09.2022 120 11.9N 35.7W 1006 33
1200UTC 11.09.2022 132 12.8N 38.4W 1005 41
0000UTC 12.09.2022 144 14.2N 40.5W 1004 47


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 060412

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 060412

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 06.09.2022

HURRICANE KAY ANALYSED POSITION : 15.8N 107.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.09.2022 15.8N 107.8W MODERATE
12UTC 06.09.2022 17.5N 109.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2022 18.7N 112.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2022 20.3N 113.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2022 21.9N 114.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2022 23.8N 115.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2022 25.2N 116.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2022 26.2N 117.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2022 27.2N 118.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2022 28.3N 119.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2022 29.1N 120.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2022 29.4N 121.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2022 29.2N 122.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM EARL ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 65.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.09.2022 22.5N 65.0W WEAK
12UTC 06.09.2022 23.3N 65.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2022 24.2N 65.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2022 25.2N 65.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2022 26.7N 65.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2022 28.5N 64.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2022 30.4N 64.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.09.2022 32.7N 61.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2022 35.3N 57.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.09.2022 39.8N 52.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2022 43.3N 50.6W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2022 43.5N 50.6W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 12.09.2022 43.6N 50.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

HURRICANE DANIELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 41.4N 43.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.09.2022 41.4N 43.1W STRONG
12UTC 06.09.2022 42.0N 41.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.09.2022 42.8N 39.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.09.2022 43.7N 37.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2022 45.2N 33.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2022 47.0N 30.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2022 49.0N 29.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.09.2022 50.5N 31.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2022 48.3N 32.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2022 47.8N 28.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2022 46.3N 26.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2022 43.4N 22.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2022 41.3N 18.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 16.4N 38.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.09.2022 17.2N 39.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2022 18.7N 42.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2022 20.0N 44.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2022 21.4N 48.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 9.5N 19.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.09.2022 9.5N 19.9W WEAK
00UTC 09.09.2022 10.6N 21.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2022 10.7N 25.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2022 10.8N 28.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2022 11.3N 32.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2022 11.9N 35.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2022 12.8N 38.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2022 14.2N 40.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 060412

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 060236
TCDAT5

Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
300 AM GMT Tue Sep 06 2022

Danielle's cloud pattern has deteriorated during the past
several hours. The outer curved band cloud tops have warmed while
becoming ragged, and the eye temperature has cooled while becoming
partially obscured. A recent microwave image, however, indicated
very little vertical tilt while maintaining a symmetric structure.
A blend of the subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB along with the AI-enhanced Advanced Dvorak Technique (AiDT)
from UW-CIMSS yields an initial intensity of 70 kt for this
advisory. Danielle's wind radii profile was expanded a bit in the
east semicircle based on recent METOP-B/C scatterometer data.

The cyclone should gradually spin down as it traverses cooler SSTs
of less than 22C by mid-period. The GFS/ECMWF/UKMET continue to be
in agreement that Danielle will complete its extratropical
transition on Thursday, although the vertical thermal structure
shows the system maintaining a warm core above 600 mb. Over the
weekend, Global model simulated IR imagery, and the Cyclone Phase
Analysis show Danielle merging with a baroclinic system approaching
from the west and developing a warm seclusion structure (shallow
warm core with a cold core upper troposphere). Although not
explicitly indicated in the official forecast, Danielle could
maintain its intensity during this evolution is due to dynamic
forcing/favorable jet finger support while it tracks cyclonically
over the central-north Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast
resembles the IVCN intensity consensus which has performed well so
far on the system.

Danielle should still move generally northeastward in the
deep-layer mid-latitude steering flow through the afternoon hours.
Danielle is forecast to turn east-northeast on Wednesday while
accelerating. Toward the end of the week, as mentioned above, the
cyclone is expected to interact with a baroclinic system, while
rotating cyclonically north of the westerlies, then turn toward the
southeast. The only significant change in the official forecast
track is the implementation of the cyclonic turn around day 3-4,
which is based on the majority of the global models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 41.6N 42.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 42.2N 41.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 42.8N 39.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 43.9N 36.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 45.5N 34.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 47.4N 31.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/0000Z 49.2N 30.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/0000Z 49.8N 31.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/0000Z 46.8N 26.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 060235
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052022
0300 UTC TUE SEP 06 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.6N 42.6W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE 110SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.6N 42.6W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.4N 42.9W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 42.2N 41.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 42.8N 39.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 130SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 43.9N 36.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 45.5N 34.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 47.4N 31.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 160SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 49.2N 30.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 160SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 49.8N 31.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 46.8N 26.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.6N 42.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 060235
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Danielle Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
300 AM GMT Tue Sep 06 2022

...DANIELLE WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.6N 42.6W
ABOUT 865 MI...1390 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Danielle was
located near latitude 41.6 North, longitude 42.6 West. Danielle is
moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through this afternoon. A turn toward the
east-northeast is anticipated on Wednesday followed by a slow
cyclonic turn at the end of the week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the
next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 052032
TCDAT5

Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
900 PM GMT Mon Sep 05 2022

After a large degradation in Danielle's appearance earlier this
afternoon, the hurricane appears to be holding more steady now with
colder cloud tops wrapping further around its center than were noted
6 hours ago. Dvorak-based intensity estimates still support an
intensity near 75 kt. The hurricane has moved a little
faster north-northeastward than anticipated during the last few
hours, with an initial motion estimate of 030/kt.

A significant adjustment was made to the track forecast at days 4
and 5, at which time Danielle is forecast to be an extratropical
cyclone. For the first 3 days of the forecast period, Danielle is
still forecast to move generally northeastward in the mid-latitude
flow. After that, it looks like Danielle could occlude and "cut-off"
from that steering flow, which may cause it to turn abruptly
northward and then southeastward at days 4-5. This scenario has been
consistently forecast for a few model cycles of the GFS and other
global models, so large changes were made to the NHC track forecast
to bring it closer to the model consensus. Other than a slight
adjustment northward and faster, no important changes were made to
the NHC track forecast for the first 72 h. Given the uncertainty at
the extended portion of the forecast, it should be noted that
confidence in the track forecast is substantially higher for the
first 72 h than the later hours. It is worth noting that Danielle
is forecast to be post-tropical by 96 h, so users should not focus
on the exact track of the cyclone since the largest impacts could
be felt far from its center.

Danielle should slowly weaken during the next few days as it moves
over marginally cool water, but most dynamical guidance suggests it
will still maintain its tropical characteristics for at least a
couple more days. Around day 3, SHIPS diagnostics indicate the
waters below the cyclone will be less than 20 deg C, and it will
likely complete its extratropical transition around that time.
The NHC forecast follows accordingly, but it should be noted this
suggests a slightly later completion to the transition than
previously forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is near the middle
of the relatively low-spread intensity guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 41.1N 43.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 41.9N 42.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 42.6N 40.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 43.4N 38.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 44.6N 35.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 46.2N 32.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 48.2N 29.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1800Z 50.0N 29.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1800Z 47.5N 25.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 052031
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Danielle Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
900 PM GMT Mon Sep 05 2022

...DANIELLE FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID-WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.1N 43.2W
ABOUT 885 MI...1430 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Danielle was
located near latitude 41.1 North, longitude 43.2 West. Danielle is
moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
north-northeastward to northeastward motion is expected through
tonight, followed by an acceleration toward the northeast after
that.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow weakening is anticipated during the next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 052031
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052022
2100 UTC MON SEP 05 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.1N 43.2W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.1N 43.2W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.8N 43.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 41.9N 42.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 42.6N 40.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 130SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 43.4N 38.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 44.6N 35.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 46.2N 32.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 160SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 48.2N 29.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 160SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 50.0N 29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 47.5N 25.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.1N 43.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 051436
TCDAT5

Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
300 PM GMT Mon Sep 05 2022

Danielle's satellite presentation has degraded since this morning.
Cloud tops have warmed and its eye-like feature is not very well
defined anymore. The hurricane has reached a relatively cool part
of the Gulf Stream, which could be a main factor in its apparent
weakening. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and
UW-CIMSS (both ADT and SATCON) have decreased, so the initial
intensity has been lowered conservatively to 75 kt, which is at the
high end of the estimates.

The lower initial intensity has also contributed to a lower
intensity forecast, but the idea is generally the same. Danielle
should slowly weaken during the next few days as it continues
northeastward over marginally warm waters. The exact timing of the
cyclone's upcoming extratropical transition is still uncertain, but
most models indicate it should complete the process on or by
Thursday. Further weakening is expected by all global models after
that time, which continues to be reflected in the NHC forecast.

Negligible change was made to the portion of the track forecast when
Danielle is expected to be a tropical cyclone. The hurricane is
forecast to move generally northeastward today and
east-northeastward through the middle of the week, steered by a
mid-latitude system approaching from the northwest. At the end of
the forecast period, most global models now suggest Danielle could
make a sharp northward turn as an extratropical cyclone. This would
represent a significant change to the day 4-5 forecast, so I would
prefer to see if that stays consistent for another cycle of model
runs before making too big of a change. The official track forecast
is therefore very close to the multi-model consensus through 72 h,
but is notably to the south and east of the consensus at days 4 and
5, That said, it has still been adjusted to the northwest of the
previous forecast at those times.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 40.2N 43.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 41.1N 43.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 41.9N 41.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 42.5N 39.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 43.4N 36.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 44.7N 33.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 46.3N 30.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1200Z 49.5N 25.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1200Z 52.0N 21.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 051435
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Danielle Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
300 PM GMT Mon Sep 05 2022

...DANIELLE WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.2N 43.9W
ABOUT 915 MI...1475 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Danielle was
located near latitude 40.2 North, longitude 43.9 West. Danielle is
moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A continued
north-northeast to northeast motion is expected today, with a turn
toward the east-northeast likely by Tuesday night. Danielle is
then forecast to conitnue east-northeastward until late this week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast for the next several
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 051434
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052022
1500 UTC MON SEP 05 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 43.9W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 43.9W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 44.1W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 41.1N 43.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 41.9N 41.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 42.5N 39.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 140SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 43.4N 36.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 44.7N 33.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 160SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 46.3N 30.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 160SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 49.5N 25.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 52.0N 21.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.2N 43.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 050841
TCDAT5

Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
900 AM GMT Mon Sep 05 2022

There's been little change in Danielle's cloud pattern during the
past 6 hours, and a clear symmetric warm 13C banding eye feature
has persisted and has intermittently been closing off. The
satellite intensity estimates haven't changed, and the initial
intensity is held at 80 kt for this advisory.

Little change in strength is forecast through today. Afterward,
the cyclone should slowly weaken through the entire period as it
moves over cooler water while increasing southwesterly shear
disrupts the upper outflow pattern. The CMC, UKMET, and the GFS
agree with Danielle to begin an extratropical transition around 36
hours and complete its change by 72 hours (Thursday). This cyclone
transformation timeline is reflected in the NHC forecast, and the
predicted 5-day intensity closely follows the IVCN and HCCA aids.

The hurricane's initial motion is estimated to be 030 at 7 kt, a
little faster than previously noted. Danielle should continue to
accelerate and move north-northeastward to northeastward through
early Tuesday in response to a mid-latitude baroclinic system
approaching from the northwest, out of the Canadian Maritimes. By
Tuesday night, the cyclone should turn toward the east-northeast
within the mid-latitude westerly steering flow and continue in
this general motion for 60 hours. A turn back toward the northeast
is forecast as an extratropical cyclone on Thursday. It's
worth mentioning that earlier today, there was quite a bit of
uncertainty (global model cross-track spread) about Danielle's
trajectory beyond the mid-period. The GFS and the UKMET predict
Danielle will turn back toward the northeast Wednesday in the
southwesterly peripheral flow of a larger baroclinic low
approaching the cyclone from the northwest Atlantic. However, the
ECMWF 12 and 18z runs showed considerably less baroclinic low
influence while continuing toward the east-northeast, southwest of
the British Isles. The latest 00z run, subsequently, has trended
more toward the GFS/UKMET solution, which has resulted in some
increase in track forecast confidence. Accordingly, the NHC
forecast is again adjusted slightly north of the previous one to
align more with a consensus (TVCA) of the models mentioned above.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 39.6N 44.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 40.5N 43.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 41.4N 42.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 42.1N 40.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 42.8N 38.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 43.8N 35.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 45.3N 32.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/0600Z 48.2N 26.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/0600Z 50.8N 20.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 050840
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Danielle Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
900 AM GMT Mon Sep 05 2022

...DANIELLE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN
CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC...
...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.6N 44.4W
ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Danielle was
located near latitude 39.6 North, longitude 44.4 West. Danielle is
moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a
north-northeast to northeast motion with a gradual increase in
forward speed is expected through Tuesday. A turn toward the
east-northeast is anticipated by Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. A slow
weakening trend is forecast to commence on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 050840
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052022
0900 UTC MON SEP 05 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 44.4W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 44.4W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 44.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 40.5N 43.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 41.4N 42.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 42.1N 40.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 42.8N 38.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 43.8N 35.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 45.3N 32.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 48.2N 26.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 50.8N 20.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.6N 44.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 050235
TCDAT5

Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
300 AM GMT Mon Sep 05 2022

Danielle has become better organized during the past several hours.
GOES-16 ProxyVis and BD-curve enhanced IR imagery show a much
improved inner core structure with a clear warm 14C eye. The cloud
pattern also comprises a well-developed outer curved band with -65C
cloud tops. A blend of the subjective and UW-CIMSS objective
satellite intensity estimates raises the initial intensity to 80 kt
for this advisory.

Danielle is forecast to remain over SSTs of around 26-27C and in a
low-shear environment during the next 36 hours. As a result,
the statistical SHIPS intensity model and the intensity consensus
aids call for Danielle to maintain its current intensity during
that time, and the NHC forecast follows suit. Beyond 36 hours,
gradually decreasing oceanic surface temperatures along the
forecast track and increasing southwesterly shear should
weaken the cyclone. The latest Florida State Cyclone Phase
Analysis shows that the UKMET and the GFS agree with Danielle
commencing an extratropical transition around 48 hours.
The analysis also indicates that Danielle will complete its
transition by 96 hours (Thursday evening), and this
cyclone transformation is shown in the official forecast.

The hurricane's initial motion is estimated to be northeastward
and at a slightly faster pace of 6 kt. Danielle should continue to
accelerate northeastward during the next 36 hours in response to a
mid-latitude major shortwave trough approaching from the northwest,
out of the Canadian Maritimes. By Tuesday night, the storm should
turn toward the east-northeast within the mid-latitude westerlies
and continue in this general heading through the period. The NHC
track forecast has been adjusted north of the previous advisory
beyond 60 hours to agree more with the TVCA and HCCA consensus
solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 39.0N 44.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 39.8N 44.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 40.9N 43.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 41.7N 41.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 42.4N 39.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 43.3N 36.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 44.4N 33.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 46.6N 26.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/0000Z 48.4N 17.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 050235
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Danielle Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
300 AM GMT Mon Sep 05 2022

...DANIELLE A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.0N 44.7W
ABOUT 955 MI...1540 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Danielle was
located near latitude 39.0 North, longitude 44.7 West. Danielle is
moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue with a gradual increase in
forward speed through Tuesday. A turn toward the east-northeast is
anticipated by Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next 24
hours. Afterward, a slow weakening trend is forecast to commence
on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 050234
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052022
0300 UTC MON SEP 05 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 44.7W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 44.7W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.7N 44.9W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 39.8N 44.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 40.9N 43.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 41.7N 41.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 42.4N 39.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 43.3N 36.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 44.4N 33.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 46.6N 26.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 48.4N 17.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.0N 44.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 042032
TCDAT5

Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
500 PM AST Sun Sep 04 2022

Danielle's satellite presentation continues to gradually improve.
A microwave pass from earlier this afternoon showed a well-defined
band wrapping around most the center of circulation and only open
to the south. While a scatterometer pass missed the inner core, it
did measure the periphery of the hurricane and revealed that the
tropical-storm-force winds over the eastern semicircle of the
circulation extended slightly less from the center than previously
estimated. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB were both 77 kt, and therefore the initial intensity is
increased to 75 kt.

There is still about a 24-hour window in which global model
guidance suggests oceanic and atmospheric conditions should be
conducive for slight strengthening. Danielle is expected to begin
weakening beyond 24 hours when the system traverses cooler ocean
surface temperatures and encounters stronger deep-layer wind shear.
The official intensity forecast now shows Danielle reaching its peak
intensity in 12 hours. The system is still expected to become a
post-tropical cyclone in 5 days.

The hurricane appears to be making its anticipated turn to the
north with a motion of 360/2 kt. Over the next few days,
Danielle is expected to turn to the northeast and accelerate ahead
of a trough currently located over eastern Canada. As the storm
reaches higher latitudes, it will likely turn east-northeastward in
the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast is very similar
to the previous prediction and lies closest to the correct consensus
model aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 38.5N 45.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 39.1N 44.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 40.2N 43.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 41.2N 42.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 42.1N 40.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 42.9N 37.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 44.0N 34.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 45.9N 27.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 47.0N 19.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 042031
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Danielle Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
500 PM AST Sun Sep 04 2022

...DANIELLE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS AND TURNS NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.5N 45.1W
ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Danielle was
located near latitude 38.5 North, longitude 45.1 West. Danielle is
moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slightly faster
northeastward motion is forecast to begin tonight and continue
during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some gradual strengthening is forecast through
Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 042031
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052022
2100 UTC SUN SEP 04 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 45.1W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 45.1W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 45.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 39.1N 44.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 40.2N 43.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 41.2N 42.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 42.1N 40.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 42.9N 37.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 44.0N 34.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 45.9N 27.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 47.0N 19.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.5N 45.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 041451
TCDAT5

Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 04 2022

Danielle has slightly improved in satellite presentation this
morning. First-light visible imagery still showed a ragged eye that
could be trying to clear out. Subjective intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB remain at 77 kt, and the objective estimates have
risen, though are still somewhat lower. The initial intensity has
been increased to 70 kt to represent a blend of the latest
classifications.

The hurricane is expected to be over relatively warm waters and in a
region with low vertical wind shear for about another day. These
oceanic and atmospheric factors should allow Danielle to gradually
strengthen. Thereafter, the storm is forecast to move over cooler
waters and encounter moderate deep-layer wind shear which will
likely result in weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is similar
to the previous advisory and close to the consensus model aids.
Danielle is still expected to become an extratropical cyclone in
about 5 days.

Danielle is still drifting in the Central Atlantic with the latest
motion estimated at 270/1 kt, but model guidance insists a turn to
the north should occur today ahead of a mid-latitude trough over
eastern Canada. Then Danielle is expected to turn northeast with an
accelerated forward motion in about a day. The storm should then
turn east-northeastward within the mid-latitude westerly flow in a
few days. The latest forecast is similar to the previous advisory in
terms of location with a slightly accelerated along-track motion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 38.1N 45.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 38.6N 45.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 39.5N 44.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 40.6N 43.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 41.5N 41.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 42.5N 39.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 43.5N 36.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 45.5N 29.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 46.7N 21.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 041449
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Danielle Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 04 2022

...DANIELLE SLOWLY INTENSIFIES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.1N 45.3W
ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Danielle was
located near latitude 38.1 North, longitude 45.3 West. Danielle has
moved little over the past few hours, but the hurricane is expected
to begin a slow motion toward the north today. A slightly faster
northeastward motion is forecast to begin tonight and continue
during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some gradual strengthening is forecast through
Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 041448
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052022
1500 UTC SUN SEP 04 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 45.3W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 45.3W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 45.3W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 38.6N 45.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 39.5N 44.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 40.6N 43.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 41.5N 41.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 42.5N 39.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 43.5N 36.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 45.5N 29.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 46.7N 21.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.1N 45.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 040838
TCDAT5

Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
500 AM AST Sun Sep 04 2022

There has been little overall change in the satellite presentation
of Danielle overnight. Curved convective bands wrap around the
center, with a large ragged banded eye-like feature evident at
times. There is a large range in the satellite intensity estimates
this morning with objective estimates much lower than the
subjective Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Although the SAB
Dvorak estimate increased to T4.5 (77 kt) at 06Z, given the general
steady state of the system's organization since the previous
advisory, the initial intensity remains 65 kt, which is a blend of
the various estimates and is in agreement with the latest TAFB
Dvorak satellite classification.

Danielle is forecast to remain over SSTs of around 27C and in a low
shear environment during the next 24 to 36 hours. As a result,
most of the intensity guidance calls for some intensification
during that time, and the NHC forecast follows suit. After that
time, gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures along the
forecast track should cause slow weakening. By days 4 and 5,
increasing shear and the system's transition into a post-tropical
cyclone are likely to cause additional weakening. The NHC
intensity forecast is a blend of the IVCN and HFIP corrected
consensus models.

The hurricane has been meandering overnight but a slow northward
motion should begin this morning. Danielle is forecast to
gradually accelerate to the northeast beginning on Monday as
deep-layer trough moves over eastern Canada. By 72 hours, the
storm should turn east-northeastward within the mid-latitude
westerly flow. The latest dynamical model guidance predicts a
slightly faster motion over much of the forecast period, and the
NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The new forecast is not
as fast as the TCVA consensus model, therefore future modifications
regarding the forward speed of the cyclone may be required.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 38.1N 45.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 38.5N 45.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 39.2N 44.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 40.3N 43.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 41.2N 42.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 42.1N 40.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 43.1N 38.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 45.3N 32.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 47.1N 23.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 040838
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Danielle Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
500 AM AST Sun Sep 04 2022

...DANIELLE MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.1N 45.2W
ABOUT 990 MI...1590 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Danielle was
located near latitude 38.1 North, longitude 45.2 West. Danielle has
moved little over the past few hours, but the hurricane is expected
to begin a slow motion toward the north today. A slightly faster
northeastward motion is forecast to begin tonight and continue
during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some gradual strengthening is forecast through Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 040838
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052022
0900 UTC SUN SEP 04 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 45.2W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 45.2W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 45.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 38.5N 45.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 39.2N 44.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 40.3N 43.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 41.2N 42.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 42.1N 40.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 43.1N 38.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 45.3N 32.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 47.1N 23.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.1N 45.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 040236
TCDAT5

Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 03 2022

Danielle has, once again, become a hurricane. The satellite
presentation consists of a single, primary curved band wrapping
around approximately 95 percent of the surface circulation center.
The Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are
a unanimous T-4.0, yielding 65 kt which is the initial intensity
for this advisory.

The environment appears conducive for gradual strengthening during
the short term. Beyond the 48-hour period, however, decreasing
oceanic temperatures, an increasingly stable environment, and
increasing vertical wind shear should induce a slow weakening trend.
The latest Florida State Cyclone Phase Analysis, using the GFS,
shows Danielle commencing an extratropical transition on the 6th. In
that model, the cyclone maintains a moderate to deep warm core but
becomes highly asymmetric (frontal characteristics) in the lower
troposphere around the 8th. The analysis and the SHIPS statistical
intensity model show Danielle completing its transition near the end
of the 5-day forecast period with a well-developed cold core above
600 mb. The NHC forecast follows suit and shows Danielle as an
extratropical cyclone at 120 h. The official intensity forecast now
shows a peak intensity of 80 kt in 36 hours and agrees with the NOAA
HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus aids.

Danielle has been drifting toward the west during the past several
hours and this general motion is expected to continue through
Sunday as the hurricane remains in weak steering currents to the
south of high pressure anchored over the North Atlantic.
Afterward, a turn to the north is forecast by Sunday night,
followed by an acceleration toward the northeast in response to a
deep-layer trough moving over the Canadian Maritimes and toward
Danielle. The NHC forecast is an update of the previous one
through 72 hours, and is adjusted slightly south to lie closer to
the various consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 38.1N 45.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 38.2N 45.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 38.7N 45.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 39.5N 44.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 40.4N 43.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 06/1200Z 41.4N 42.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 42.4N 40.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 44.5N 35.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 46.1N 28.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 040234
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Danielle Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 03 2022

...ONCE AGAIN DANIELLE BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.1N 45.1W
ABOUT 985 MI...1580 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Danielle was
located near latitude 38.1 North, longitude 45.1 West. Danielle is
drifting toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this general
motion is expected through early Sunday. A turn to the
north-northeast is forecast to begin late Sunday night, or early
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional gradual strengthening is expected
through Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 040234
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052022
0300 UTC SUN SEP 04 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 45.1W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 45.1W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 45.0W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 38.2N 45.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 38.7N 45.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 39.5N 44.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 40.4N 43.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 41.4N 42.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 42.4N 40.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 44.5N 35.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 46.1N 28.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.1N 45.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 032031
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Danielle Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
900 PM GMT Sat Sep 03 2022

Danielle's cloud pattern has become better organized during the
past several hours with banding features gaining symmetry around
the center. However, there are still some dry slots disrupting
the system's inner core. A blend of the latest satellite intensity
estimates still supports an intensity of 60 kt, but Danielle could
become a hurricane again soon. An ASCAT pass from several
hours ago was helpful in adjusting the initial 34- and 50-kt wind
radii.

The storm has been moving a little faster to the west at 5 kt and is
back over the same location where it was on Thursday. A continued
slow westward motion is expected into Sunday as the storm remains
steered by a blocking ridge to its north. However, a sharp turn to
the north is forecast by Sunday night followed by a faster motion to
the northeast after that as a trough currently over eastern Canada
approaches Danielle. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted
to the left in the short term, but ends up to the east of the
previous track at 96 and 120 h, trending toward the latest
consensus aids.

Danielle is expected to gradually pull away from its own cool SST
wake, and since the atmospheric conditions appear generally
favorable, slow strengthening seems likely during the next day or
two. Beyond a couple of days, however, sharply cooler SSTs, drier
air, and an increase in vertical wind shear should end the
strengthening trend and induce some weakening. Danielle is expected
to become fully extratropical by day 5 when it merges with the
approaching trough and moves over SSTs cooler than 20C. The NHC
intensity forecast is again an update of the previous one and
remains in line with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 38.0N 44.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 38.1N 45.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 38.4N 45.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 39.0N 44.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 39.9N 44.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 40.8N 43.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 41.7N 41.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 44.2N 36.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 46.7N 30.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 032030
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052022
2100 UTC SAT SEP 03 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 44.8W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 44.8W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 44.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 38.1N 45.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 38.4N 45.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 39.0N 44.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 39.9N 44.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 40.8N 43.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 41.7N 41.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 44.2N 36.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 46.7N 30.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.0N 44.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 032030
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Danielle Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
900 PM GMT Sat Sep 03 2022

...DANIELLE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN TONIGHT OR SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.0N 44.8W
ABOUT 965 MI...1555 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danielle was
located near latitude 38.0 North, longitude 44.8 West. Danielle is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a slow westward
motion is expected through early Sunday. A turn to the north is
forecast to begin Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of
days, and Danielle is forecast to become a hurricane again.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 031448
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Danielle Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
300 PM GMT Sat Sep 03 2022

Satellite images indicate that Danielle has generally changed little
during the past several hours. The storm is still producing bands
of deep convection, especially on its north side, but there are dry
slots that have entrained into the south side of the circulation.
The Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 55 to 65 kt, and
based on that data, the initial intensity is held at 60 kt.

Danielle has been moving very slowly to the west-northwest at 2 kt
and is back over the same location where it was 24-36 hours ago. A
continued slow west-northwestward motion is expected through tonight
as the storm remains steered by a blocking ridge to its north.
However, a sharp turn to the north is forecast on Sunday followed by
a faster motion to the northeast after that as a trough currently
over eastern Canada approaches Danielle. Although the models agree
on the overall scenario, there is a fair amount of spread on where
and how sharply the storm is expected to turn. The NHC track
forecast is a little to the west of the previous one in the short
term, but ends up near the previous forecast from 48 to 120 h, and
it lies roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Danielle has been over its own cool SSTs wake during the past 12-18
hours, which possibly caused the observed slight weakening.
However, as the storm pulls away from that area and remains in
generally favorable atmospheric conditions, Danielle will likely
restrengthen during the next couple of days. Beyond that time,
cooler waters, drier air, and an increase in shear should cause some
weakening. Danielle is expected to become an extratropical cyclone
by the end of the forecast period when it merges with the
approaching trough and moves over SSTs near 20C. The NHC intensity
forecast is just an update of the previous one and in line with the
HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 38.1N 44.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 38.2N 44.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 38.4N 44.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 38.9N 44.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 39.7N 44.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 40.6N 43.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 41.5N 42.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 43.8N 38.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 46.8N 33.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 031447
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Danielle Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
300 PM GMT Sat Sep 03 2022

...DANIELLE CONTINUES TO DRIFT OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.1N 44.0W
ABOUT 925 MI...1485 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danielle was
located near latitude 38.1 North, longitude 44.0 West. Danielle is
moving slowly toward the west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A
continued slow west-northwest motion is forecast through tonight,
but a turn to the north is expected to begin on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of
days, and Danielle is forecast to become a hurricane again.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 031446
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052022
1500 UTC SAT SEP 03 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 44.0W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 150SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 44.0W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 43.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 38.2N 44.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 38.4N 44.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 38.9N 44.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 39.7N 44.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 40.6N 43.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 41.5N 42.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 43.8N 38.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 46.8N 33.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.1N 44.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 030852
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Danielle Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
900 AM GMT Sat Sep 03 2022

Convection associated with Danielle has continued to decrease this
morning, with a corresponding decrease in satellite intensity
estimates. Based on this decrease, it is estimated that Danielle
has weakened to a tropical storm with an initial intensity of 60 kt.
While it is not known why the storm has weakened, one possibility
is that the slow motion has allowed the cyclone to upwell cold
water underneath it.

Danielle is essentially stationary with a 12-h motion of 270/1 kt.
The cyclone is still caught south of a blocking high over the North
Atlantic. This pattern is expected to hold firm for a couple of
days, with the system forecast to drift westward and then drift
northward. After 48-60 h, the block will weaken and allow the
southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies to steer Danielle
generally northeastward at a faster forward speed. There are no
significant changes to the forecast track for the first 48-60 h.
After that, the forecast has been nudged eastward due to a shift
in the guidance envelope.

The intensity guidance is still calling for Danielle to strengthen
for 72 h or so. Given the possibility of upwelling and the
forecast continued slow motion, the guidance might be a bit
optimistic on that. The new intensity forecast calls for little
change in strength for 12 h or so, followed by slow strengthening
on the premise that the storm will move over somewhat warmer water.
After 72 h, the storm is likely to interact with an upper-level
trough, which could help maintain the intensity even as Danielle
moves toward much colder water in the North Atlantic. This trough
will also start extratropical transition, although this will
likely not be complete by 120 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 38.0N 43.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 38.0N 44.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 38.1N 44.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 38.5N 44.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 39.1N 44.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 39.9N 43.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 40.7N 42.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 43.0N 39.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 46.5N 35.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 030852
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052022
0900 UTC SAT SEP 03 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 43.8W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 100SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 43.8W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 43.5W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 38.0N 44.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 38.1N 44.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 38.5N 44.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 39.1N 44.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 39.9N 43.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 40.7N 42.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 43.0N 39.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 46.5N 35.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.0N 43.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 030852
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Danielle Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
900 AM GMT Sat Sep 03 2022

...DANIELLE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY...
...EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.0N 43.8W
ABOUT 915 MI...1470 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danielle was
located near latitude 38.0 North, longitude 43.8 West. Danielle is
currently nearly stationary. A westward drift is expected today
and Sunday, followed by a northward drift on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today.
Some slight strengthening is expected tonight through Monday, and
Danielle could regain hurricane strength on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 030249
TCDAT5

Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
300 AM GMT Sat Sep 03 2022

Danielle's satellite presentation has degraded further this
evening, highlighted by a loss of the eye. Dvorak T-numbers have
decreased from TAFB and SAB since earlier today, but their
respective Current Intensity numbers remain 4.0 and 4.5.
Therefore, the initial intensity is being held at 65 kt.

Danielle has been stationary for the past 6-12 hours while it
remains in a weak steering environment to the south of a blocking
high over the North Atlantic. This pattern is expected to hold
firm for the next few days, with the hurricane forecast to meander
through about day 3. After that time, a deep-layer trough moving
off the coast of Atlantic Canada and the northeastern U.S. should
finally shove Danielle on an accelerating path toward the northeast
on days 4 and 5. During the acceleration phase, the updated NHC
track forecast is a little north of the previous forecast and lies
close to the HCCA, TVCN, and FSSE multi-model consensus aids.

Danielle's convective and organizational struggles during the past
few hours could be due to upwelling of cooler waters. While
vertical shear is expected to be generally low 3 days or so, the
hurricane's slow motion is likely to continue to upwell cooler
waters, and therefore only slight strengthening is anticipated
during that time. Danielle is expected to move over colder waters
after day 3, which should induce some weakening toward the end of
the forecast period. Global models also suggest that the
cyclone could be undergoing extratropical transition by the end
of the forecast period. The updated NHC intensity forecast is very
similar to the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 37.9N 43.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 38.0N 43.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 37.9N 44.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 38.1N 44.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 38.7N 44.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 05/1200Z 39.4N 44.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 40.2N 43.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 42.1N 41.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 45.5N 36.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 030248
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052022
0300 UTC SAT SEP 03 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 43.5W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 100SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 43.5W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 43.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 38.0N 43.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 37.9N 44.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 38.1N 44.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 38.7N 44.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 39.4N 44.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 40.2N 43.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 42.1N 41.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 45.5N 36.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.9N 43.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 030248
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Danielle Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
300 AM GMT Sat Sep 03 2022

...DANIELLE REMAINS STATIONARY...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.9N 43.5W
ABOUT 895 MI...1445 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Danielle was
located near latitude 37.9 North, longitude 43.5 West. Danielle is
stationary and is forecast to drift generally westward through
early Sunday, then northward by Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next few
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 022039
TCDAT5

Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
900 PM GMT Fri Sep 02 2022

The satellite presentation of Danielle has degraded some this
afternoon. Drier mid-level air appears to have wrapped into the
circulation, and the cyclone now has more of a banded structure
around the western and southern portions of the system. Recently,
infrared cloud top temperatures have cooled within a small ring of
inner core convection. Based on a blend of the subjective Dvorak
estimates from SAB and TAFB, the initial intensity is held at 65 kt
for this advisory.

Danielle is nearly stationary, as it remains under weak steering
currents with a blocking high pressure ridge positioned over the
North Atlantic. The cyclone is expected to meander or drift slowly
westward over the next couple of days. As the ridge weakens and
retreats westward, Danielle should begin moving northeastward
more-typical mid-latitude flow by Monday. Then, the cyclone is
forecast to gradually accelerate northeastward during the middle of
next week. The track guidance has shifted considerably to the left
this cycle, and the latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted in
this direction, toward the HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA).

The upwelling of cooler water underneath slow-moving Danielle is
likely to prevent much strengthening in the near term. However, the
deep-layer shear is expected to remain weak for the next couple of
days. So, there is still potential for a bit of strengthening if the
cyclone is able to drift farther west of its current position. By
72 h, Danielle is forecast to cross the 26C isotherm and move into
a more highly-sheared environment, which is expected to induce a
weakening trend through the rest of the forecast period. The latest
NHC intensity forecast has been lowered from the previous one and
lies near or just below the various model consensus aids. Around day
5, Danielle is forecast to interact with an upper-level trough and
begin the process of extratropical transition.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 37.9N 43.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 38.0N 43.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 38.0N 44.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 38.1N 44.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 38.3N 44.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 39.0N 44.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 39.6N 43.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 41.5N 41.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 43.0N 37.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 022037
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Danielle Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
900 PM GMT Fri Sep 02 2022

...DANIELLE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE OPEN CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.9N 43.5W
ABOUT 895 MI...1445 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Danielle was
located near latitude 37.9 North, longitude 43.5 West. Danielle
is nearly stationary, and the hurricane is expected to meander over
the open Atlantic during the next couple of days. Then, Danielle is
forecast to slowly turn toward the northeast early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. A little more strengthening is forecast during the next
couple days or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 022037
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052022
2100 UTC FRI SEP 02 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 43.5W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 100SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 43.5W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 43.5W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 38.0N 43.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 0SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 38.0N 44.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 0SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 38.1N 44.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 38.3N 44.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 39.0N 44.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 39.6N 43.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 41.5N 41.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 43.0N 37.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.9N 43.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 021449
TCDAT5

Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
300 PM GMT Fri Sep 02 2022

Danielle has continued to strengthen this morning. A ragged eye is
evident in conventional satellite imagery, and deep convection
surrounds much of the northern and western portions of the
circulation. A recent ASCAT-B pass missed the center but caught the
eastern portion of the circulation. It showed winds up to 52 kt on
the inner edge of the swath and tropical-storm-force winds extending
outward up to 100 n mi in the northeastern quadrant of the cyclone.
The latest objective and subjective satellite estimates support
raising the initial intensity to 65 kt, which makes Danielle the
first Atlantic hurricane of the season.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear generally favorable for
some additional strengthening during the next couple of days. The
hurricane will meander over 27C SSTs in an environment of light to
moderate deep-layer shear. Danielle is a higher-latitude storm, and
so there is the potential for some mid-level dry air entrainment
that could briefly disrupt the cyclone's organization. The latest
intensity guidance consensus still favors some additional
strengthening through Sunday. The official NHC forecast is similar
to the previous one and lies slightly above the model consensus.
After 72 h, weakening is expected to commence as Danielle gains
latitude and moves over cooler waters while it encounters more
deep-layer shear within the mid-latitude westerlies.

Although the 12-hr motion of Danielle has been an easterly drift,
the hurricane appears to have become nearly stationary this
morning. The cyclone will likely continue to meander over the
central Atlantic during the next couple of days under the influence
of a blocking high pressure ridge. This feature is forecast to
weaken by early next week, which should allow Danielle to begin
moving northeastward by 72 h and accelerate deeper into the
mid-latitudes on days 4-5. Once again, it appears Danielle will not
begin extratropical transition until beyond the end of the forecast
period. The NHC track forecast generally lies near the center of
the guidance envelope, close to the reliable consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 37.9N 43.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 38.0N 43.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 38.1N 43.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 38.1N 44.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 38.5N 44.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 38.9N 44.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 39.6N 43.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 41.0N 40.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 42.5N 36.4W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 021447
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Danielle Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
300 PM GMT Fri Sep 02 2022

...DANIELLE BECOMES THE FIRST ATLANTIC HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.9N 43.3W
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Danielle was
located near latitude 37.9 North, longitude 43.3 West. Danielle is
moving toward the west near 1 mph (2 km/h). The hurricane is
forecast to meander over the open Atlantic during the next couple of
days, then slowly turn toward the northeast early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during
the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 021447
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052022
1500 UTC FRI SEP 02 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 43.3W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..110NE 70SE 90SW 110NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 43.3W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 43.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 38.0N 43.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 38.1N 43.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 38.1N 44.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 38.5N 44.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 38.9N 44.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 39.6N 43.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 41.0N 40.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 42.5N 36.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.9N 43.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 020845
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Danielle Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
900 AM GMT Fri Sep 02 2022

Satellite imagery shows that Danielle is continuing to strengthen,
with convective bands wrapping around the center and attempts at
eye formation. The various satellite intensity estimates have a
wide range from 45-77 kt, and the consensus of the estimates is
that Danielle is not quite a hurricane yet. Based on these
estimates, the initial intensity is increased to a possibly
conservative 60 kt.

Danielle continues to move slowly eastward, with the initial motion
100/3 kt. The cyclone is situated within an area of light steering
flow on the south side of an omega block mid-level anticyclone, and
this pattern is expected to cause Danielle to meander during the
next couple of days. After that, the blocking anticyclone should
move eastward and weaken, allowing the southern edge of the
mid-latitude westerlies to become the primary steering mechanism.
The large-scale models differ in the details of the shortwave
troughs in the westerlies that could affect Danielle, and due to
this the track guidance becomes somewhat divergent, with the ECMWF
calling for a more northward motion than the other guidance. The
new forecast track is similar to the previous forecast through 72
h, then is shifted a little to the north of the previous forecast.

The cyclone should remain over 26-27C sea surface temperatures for
about 72 h in an environment of light- to moderate westerly shear.
This should allow continued strengthening, with the main negative
factor being that the mid-level relative humidities near the
storm are low. After 72 h, movement over cooler water and
increased shear should cause weakening. However, the large-scale
models are in good agreement that the cyclone will not undergo
extratropical transition before the end of the forecast period.
The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast
and lies near the intensity consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 37.9N 43.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 37.8N 43.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 37.8N 43.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 37.9N 44.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 38.2N 44.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 38.6N 44.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 39.2N 43.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 41.0N 41.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 42.5N 38.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 020844
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052022
0900 UTC FRI SEP 02 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 43.4W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 43.4W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 43.6W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 37.8N 43.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 37.8N 43.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 37.9N 44.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 38.2N 44.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 38.6N 44.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 39.2N 43.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 41.0N 41.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 42.5N 38.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.9N 43.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 020844
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Danielle Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
900 AM GMT Fri Sep 02 2022

...DANIELLE STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...
...FORECAST TO BECOME THE SEASON'S FIRST HURRICANE DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.9N 43.4W
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danielle was
located near latitude 37.9 North, longitude 43.4 West. Danielle is
moving toward the east near 3 mph (6 km/h). The storm is forecast
to meander over the open Atlantic during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next couple of days, and Danielle is forecast to become a hurricane
later this morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 020233
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Danielle Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
300 AM GMT Fri Sep 02 2022

The overall organization of the tropical cyclone has continued to
increase since the previous advisory. The primary convective band
now wraps nearly completely around the center, and there have been
occasional hints of a ragged eye. Earlier microwave imagery also
revealed the presence of a ragged low- to mid-level eye feature.
Subjective Dvorak classifications have risen to T3.0 (45 kt) and
T3.5 (55 kt) from SAB and TAFB, respectively. Given the continued
improvement in structure, the intensity has been increased to 55 kt,
the higher end of those estimates.

Despite the high latitude of the tropical cyclone, atmospheric and
oceanic conditions are expected to remain favorable for additional
strengthening over the next 2-3 days. As mentioned previously, the
cyclone is located over anomalously warm waters, and the vertical
wind shear is forecast to remain generally low through 72 hours.
As a result, continued steady strengthening is expected, and
Danielle is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday. By days 4 and
5, cooler sea surface temperatures and increasing shear are likely
to cause some weakening. The NHC wind speed forecast is in good
agreement with the latest intensity consensus aids, and shows the
same peak intensity as the previous official forecast.

Danielle continues its slow eastward motion of around 090 degrees
at 2 kt. The cyclone is situated within an area of light steering
flow under an omega block, which is expected to cause Danielle to
meander during the next few days. The strong mid-level ridge to
the north is forecast to weaken and shift eastward early next week.
By days 4 and 5, an approaching mid-latitude trough should begin to
lift Danielle northeastward at an increasingly faster forward speed.
Little change was required to the early portion of the track
forecast, but the latter part has been adjusted eastward to be in
better alignment with the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means, and the
latest multi-model consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 38.0N 44.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 37.9N 43.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 37.9N 44.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 37.9N 44.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 38.0N 44.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 38.2N 44.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 38.9N 44.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 40.8N 42.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 42.6N 39.6W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 020233
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052022
0300 UTC FRI SEP 02 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 44.0W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 44.0W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 44.1W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 37.9N 43.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 37.9N 44.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 37.9N 44.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 38.0N 44.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 38.2N 44.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 38.9N 44.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 40.8N 42.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 42.6N 39.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.0N 44.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 020233
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Danielle Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
300 AM GMT Fri Sep 02 2022

...DANIELLE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...FORECAST TO BECOME THE SEASON'S FIRST HURRICANE ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.0N 44.0W
ABOUT 925 MI...1485 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danielle was
located near latitude 38.0 North, longitude 44.0 West. Danielle is
moving toward the east near 2 mph (4 km/h). The storm is forecast
to meander during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next couple of days, and Danielle is forecast to become a hurricane
on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 012032
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Danielle Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
900 PM GMT Thu Sep 01 2022

The high-latitude tropical cyclone has had quite the increase in
organization today. Recent microwave and visible satellite imagery
shows decent banding features and convection wrapping around the
low-level center. Subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and
SAB both estimate Danielle to be a 45-kt system. However, since the
storm has continued to improve in appearance, the initial intensity
has been increased to 50 kt.

Danielle is drifting eastward at 2 kt. A strong anticyclone over
the system is creating light and variable steering flow and Danielle
should continue to meander for the next few days. In about 4 days,
the anticyclone is expected to weaken and move eastward and a
mid-latitude trough should turn and accelerate Danielle to the
northeast. The NHC track forecast is shifted slightly westward from
the previous prediction and is close to the model consensus aids.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear to be conducive for
additional strengthening during the next few days. The tropical
storm is over anomalously warm waters and global model guidance
indicates the vertical wind shear should gradually decrease over the
next few days. The official intensity forecast has been adjusted
upward based on the recent strengthening trend and now shows a peak
intensity of 85 kt in 60 hours. Thereafter, when Danielle is
forecast to turn northward, it is expected to gradually weaken over
cooler water temperatures and increased vertical wind shear.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 38.1N 44.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 38.1N 44.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 38.0N 44.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 38.0N 44.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 38.0N 44.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 38.2N 45.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 38.7N 44.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 40.5N 43.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 42.5N 41.7W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 012031
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Danielle Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
900 PM GMT Thu Sep 01 2022

...DANIELLE INTENSIFYING...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.1N 44.5W
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danielle was
located near latitude 38.1 North, longitude 44.5 West. Danielle is
moving toward the east near 2 mph (4 km/h). The tropical storm is
expected to meander during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few
days, and Danielle is expected to become a hurricane within a day.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 012031
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052022
2100 UTC THU SEP 01 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 44.5W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 44.5W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 44.6W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 38.1N 44.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 38.0N 44.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 38.0N 44.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 38.0N 44.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 38.2N 45.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 38.7N 44.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 40.5N 43.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 42.5N 41.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.1N 44.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT65 KNHC 011902
TCUAT5

Tropical Storm Danielle Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
700 PM GMT Thu Sep 01 2022

...SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT DANIELLE IS STRENGTHENING
QUICKLY...

Satellite images indicate that the maximum winds associated with
Tropical Storm Danielle have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 700 PM GMT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.1N 44.6W
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 090 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 011444
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Danielle Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
300 PM GMT Thu Sep 01 2022

A recent ASCAT pass revealed areas of tropical-storm-force winds and
the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt making the system Tropical
Storm Danielle. Visible satellite imagery also shows convective
coverage expanding and obscuring the low-level circulation.

The initial motion of the storm is eastward at 3 kt. The tropical
storm is located in an area of light winds and weak steering under
an omega block. This will likely cause the system to slowly drift
around the same general area until the anticyclone weakens and a
mid-latitude trough steers Danielle poleward around day 4. The
official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory
prediction and lies between the model consensus aids.

Danielle is over an area of warmer than average ocean waters.
Atmospheric conditions are also forecast to be relatively favorable,
with light- to moderate-northerly to northwesterly shear for the
next three days or so. The NHC forecast calls for additional
strengthening and Danielle is expected to become a hurricane in two
days and peak in intensity in about 4 days. When the storm moves
northward, Danielle will likely weaken as it moves over cooler sea
surface temperatures and the vertical wind shear increases.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 38.1N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 38.2N 44.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 38.2N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 38.1N 44.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 38.0N 44.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 38.0N 44.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 38.5N 44.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 40.0N 43.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 42.0N 42.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 011440
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Danielle Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
300 PM GMT Thu Sep 01 2022

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.1N 44.7W
ABOUT 960 MI...1545 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danielle was
located near latitude 38.1 North, longitude 44.7 West. Danielle is
moving toward the east near 2 mph (4 km/h). The tropical storm is
expected to meander during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few
days, and Danielle is expected to become a hurricane in two days or
so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 011440
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052022
1500 UTC THU SEP 01 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 44.7W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 44.7W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 44.8W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 38.2N 44.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 38.2N 44.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 38.1N 44.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 38.0N 44.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 38.0N 44.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 38.5N 44.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 40.0N 43.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 42.0N 42.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.1N 44.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 010839
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
500 AM AST Thu Sep 01 2022

Satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure area over the
North Atlantic west of the Azores has developed a well-defined
circulation and convective banding in the eastern semicircle. Based
on this structure, advisories are being initiated on Tropical
Depression Five with an initial intensity of 30 kt.

Despite the high latitude, the cyclone is in an area of light
steering currents on the southeast and south side of an anomalously
strong mid-level anticyclone. This should result in a slow motion
for the next three days or so, with the guidance showing an eastward
drift followed by a westward drift. After three days, the
anticyclone is forecast to move eastward and weaken as the
mid-latitude westerlies start encroaching on the system. The
large-scale models are not in good agreement with how this will
steer the cyclone, with the GFS and Canadian showing a general
motion toward the east while the UKMET and ECMWF forecast a more
northward motion. The track forecast is close to all of the
guidance for the first three days, and then calls for a
northeastward motion between the HFIP Corrected Consensus and the
other consensus models at days 4 and 5.

The sea surface temperatures in the area are warmer than normal -
near 27C. This warm water, combined with a forecast environment of
light- to moderate westerly shear for the next three days or so,
should allow steady strengthening. The intensity forecast calls for
the system to become a tropical storm later today, a hurricane in
about two days, and reach a peak intensity of 80 kt in about 4 days.
It should be noted that this forecast is close to the intensity
consensus, and there are models forecasting more intensification.
After four days, motion over cooler water and increasing shear
should cause the cyclone to weaken.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 38.1N 45.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 38.2N 44.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 38.2N 44.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 38.1N 44.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 38.0N 44.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 38.0N 44.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 38.2N 45.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 39.5N 44.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 41.5N 42.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 010838
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Five Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
500 AM AST Thu Sep 01 2022

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.1N 45.0W
ABOUT 975 MI...1575 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five was
located near latitude 38.1 North, longitude 45.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h),
and an eastward drift is expected through Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 010838
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052022
0900 UTC THU SEP 01 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 45.0W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 45.0W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 45.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 38.2N 44.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 38.2N 44.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 38.1N 44.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 38.0N 44.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 38.0N 44.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 38.2N 45.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 39.5N 44.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 41.5N 42.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.1N 45.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>