Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NEWTON-22
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 252200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E (NEWTON) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E (NEWTON) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 18.6N 116.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 116.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.6N 118.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 16.4N 119.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 15.1N 120.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 14.3N 121.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 13.0N 123.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
252200Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 117.2W.
25SEP22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E (NEWTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
846 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 251800Z IS 8 FEET.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 252043
TCDEP5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Newton Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
200 PM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022

Satellite images during the last 24 hours indicate that Newton has
not produced much convection, and a brief burst overnight was too
ephemeral to qualify as organized enough for a tropical cyclone.
Thus, this system has degenerated to a remnant low, and this is the
last NHC advisory. The initial wind speed is set to 25 kt, assuming
some spin down of the vortex since this morning. The remnant low
should continue moving southwestward for the few days before opening
up into a trough. At the same time, the system should gradually
weaken. This solution is consistent with the previous forecast and
the consensus aids.

For additional information on the remnant low, please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 18.4N 117.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 26/0600Z 17.6N 118.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 26/1800Z 16.4N 119.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/0600Z 15.1N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/1800Z 14.3N 121.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 28/0600Z 13.0N 123.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 252041
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Newton Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
200 PM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022

...NEWTON BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 117.1W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Newton
was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 117.1 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the southwest near 9 mph (15
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next
couple of days before the low opens up into a trough of low
pressure.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h)
with higher gusts. The remnant low should slowly weakened over the
next couple of days before totally dissipating.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 252039
TCMEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NEWTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152022
2100 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 117.1W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 117.1W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 116.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.6N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.4N 119.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 15.1N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.3N 121.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 13.0N 123.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 117.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 251429
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Newton Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
800 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022

Newton barely qualifies as a tropical depression this morning, with
a small area of not-exactly-organized deep convection, which has
been weakening during the past few hours. The initial wind speed
is held at 30 kt, perhaps generously. The system should gradually
weaken due to persistent southerly shear helping to entrain drier
air into the circulation. This environment should eliminate any
significant convection by this evening, and remnant low status is
now indicated in 12 hours.

The depression is turning leftward, with the motion now estimated
at 240/8 kt. Newton should move southwestward during the next few
days due to the orientation of the low-level ridge, and the model
guidance is in good agreement on this scenario. No significant
changes were made to the previous NHC forecast for track or
intensity.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 19.0N 116.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 18.3N 117.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 26/1200Z 17.1N 118.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/0000Z 15.8N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/1200Z 14.5N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 28/0000Z 13.5N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 251428
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Newton Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
800 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022

...NEWTON FORECAST TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 116.4W
ABOUT 500 MI...800 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Newton
was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 116.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h).
A motion toward the southwest is anticipated over the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Newton should degenerate into a remnant low tonight or early
Monday, and the wind speed is forecast to gradually decrease
through midweek.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 251428
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEWTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152022
1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 116.4W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 116.4W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 116.1W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.3N 117.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.1N 118.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 15.8N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.5N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 13.5N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 116.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 251000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E (NEWTON) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E (NEWTON) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 19.5N 115.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 115.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 19.0N 116.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.8N 117.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 16.4N 119.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 15.0N 120.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 13.7N 122.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
251000Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 115.7W.
25SEP22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E (NEWTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
798 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 251600Z, 252200Z, 260400Z AND 261000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 250842
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Newton Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
200 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022

This morning's conventional satellite presentation consists of a
partially exposed, well-defined surface circulation with a recent,
shapeless burst of deep convection near and north of the surface
center. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt and is supported by
the subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimate from TAFB and
SAB. Increasing shear magnitude and intrusion of dry stable air
should degenerate Newton by early Monday, or possibly sometime
today. The statistical SHIPS intensity guidance has Newton as a
persistent depression through early Tuesday, but the global models
show Newton decaying earlier, and the NHC forecast follows the
latter solution.

Newton's initial motion is 260/7 kt, a little left of due west.
A west-southwestward turn is expected by this evening, followed by
a turn southwestward early Monday while embedded in the
northeasterly low-level trade wind flow. The official track
forecast is slightly faster than the 0300 UTC advisory beyond the
24-hour period and has been adjusted south to align more closely to
the NOAA HFIP consensus model and the TVCE aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 19.4N 115.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 19.0N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 17.8N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/1800Z 16.4N 119.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0600Z 15.0N 120.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/1800Z 13.7N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 250840
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Newton Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
200 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022

...NEWTON HANGING ON AS A DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 115.6W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Newton
was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 115.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
general motion should continue through this morning. A gradual turn
toward the west-southwest is expected by this evening followed by a
turn toward the southwest early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so.
Slow weakening is anticipated once Newton becomes a post-tropical
remnant low, possibly as soon as later today or tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 250840
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEWTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152022
0900 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 115.6W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 115.6W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 115.3W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.0N 116.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.8N 117.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.4N 119.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 15.0N 120.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 13.7N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 115.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 250234
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Newton Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
900 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022

A little deep convection has reformed near the center of Newton
since the last advisory. While it isn't particularly well organized,
it was enough to get a 2.0 Dvorak classification from TAFB, which
was the primary basis for the 30 kt initial intensity. The lack of
persistent or organized deep convection is probably due to a
combination of factors including a dry surrounding environment
(700-500 mb 50 to 55 percent RH according to SHIPS diagnostics) and
moderate wind shear.

Even though Newton is forecast to move over warmer SSTs during the
next few days, various global models suggest it could become
post-tropical sooner than that, and based on current trends that
could be as soon as tomorrow. The HWRF has a notably different
forecast, indicating Newton could stick around as a weak tropical
depression for at least another few days. The NHC forecast is very
similar to the previous advisory, showing Newton becoming
post-tropical in about a day and dissipating by day 3.

Newton has turned westward. Low-level winds should steer the
depression westward overnight, and then southwestward by late Sunday
or early Monday. Only minor adjustments were made to the official
track forecast which is based on the track consensus aids HCCA and
TVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 19.5N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 19.4N 115.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 18.7N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/1200Z 17.7N 118.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0000Z 16.6N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/1200Z 15.5N 121.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 250234
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Newton Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
900 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022

...NEWTON IS BARELY A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 114.8W
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Newton
was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 114.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
general motion should continue overnight. A gradual turn toward the
southwest is expected by late Sunday or early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so.
Slow weakening is anticipated once Newton becomes a post-tropical
remnant low, potentially as soon as tomorrow.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 250233
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEWTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152022
0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 114.8W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 114.8W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 114.4W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.4N 115.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.7N 117.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.7N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.6N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 15.5N 121.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 114.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 242046
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Newton Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
300 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022

Visible satellite imagery show Newton is reduced to a low-level
swirl devoid of deep convection. Satellite Dvorak estimates suggest
the intensity is between 25-30 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity
has been lowered to 30 kt, and Newton is now a tropical depression.

It remains to be seen if Newton is able to develop new central
convection as it moves over a oceanic thermal ridge with warmer sea
surface temperatures. Environmental conditions are not expected to
improve along the forecast track, however, and global models suggest
Newton will gradually spin down. The NHC intensity is slightly
lower than the previous advisory and now shows the depression as a
remnant low in 24 hours. However, given the current satellite
presentation, this could occur sooner.

The depression is moving just north of west at 8 kt. The shallow
circulation is expected to move westward in the low-level wind flow
for the next day. This is followed by a gradual turn to the
west-southwest and southwest until the end of the forecast period.
The current forecast track is largely an update of the previous
advisory prediction with only minor adjustments.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 19.4N 113.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 19.4N 115.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 18.9N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/0600Z 18.0N 117.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 26/1800Z 17.0N 119.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/0600Z 15.9N 120.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 242045
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Newton Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
300 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022

...NEWTON WEAKENS INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 113.9W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Newton
was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 113.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
westward motion is expected through today followed by a gradual
turn to the west-southwest and southwest on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening if forecast, and Newton is expected to degenerate
to a remnant low pressure area tomorrow.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 242045
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEWTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152022
2100 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 113.9W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 113.9W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 113.7W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.4N 115.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.9N 116.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.0N 117.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.0N 119.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 15.9N 120.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 113.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 241600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15E (NEWTON) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (NEWTON) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 19.0N 112.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 112.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 19.3N 114.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 19.1N 115.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.5N 117.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.5N 118.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.3N 119.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
241600Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 113.3W.
24SEP22. TROPICAL STORM 15E (NEWTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 854
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 242200Z, 250400Z, 251000Z AND 251600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 241448
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
900 AM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022

Small bursts of convection continue to form near the center of
Newton's center. A recent satellite microwave pass still showed
a small curved band in the northern semicircle of the circulation.
Subjective and objective satellite classifications range between
25-35 kt. The initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 35
kt.

The combination of low environmental relative humidities and
moderate vertical wind shear are expected to slowly weaken Newton,
despite the relatively warm sea surface temperatures. There is
little change in the latest intensity forecast and Newton is still
expected to become a remnant low in two days and dissipate within
three days.

Newton is moving west-northwestward at 7 kt and gradually turning to
the west. As convection slowly dwindles, the shallow vortex is
expected to turn westward and eventually southwestward in the
low-level flow in the next day or so. The track guidance is
tightly clustered and the official forecast track is very similar to
the previous prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 19.1N 113.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 19.3N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 19.1N 115.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 18.5N 117.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 17.5N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/0000Z 16.3N 119.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 241447
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Newton Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
900 AM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022

...NEWTON MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 113.2W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Newton was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 113.2 West. Newton is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual
turn toward the west and southwest is expected during the next 24
to 36 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Weakening is
forecast, and Newton is expected to weaken to a tropical depression
later today and degenerate to a remnant low pressure area by late
Sunday or early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 241447
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM NEWTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152022
1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 113.2W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 113.2W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 112.8W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.3N 114.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.1N 115.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.5N 117.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.5N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.3N 119.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 113.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 241000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15E (NEWTON) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (NEWTON) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 18.8N 112.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 112.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 19.2N 113.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 19.2N 115.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.9N 116.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 18.1N 117.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 16.8N 119.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
241000Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 112.6W.
24SEP22. TROPICAL STORM 15E (NEWTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 876
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 241600Z, 242200Z, 250400Z AND 251000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 240846
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022

While Newton is producing small areas of convection near and
north of the center, the storm is gradually becoming less
organized. Satellite intensity estimates are generally in the
30-40 kt range, and based on the decreased organization since the
last advisory the initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt.

While Newton is likely to stay over warm sea surface temperatures,
a combination of a dry air mass and southerly vertical wind shear
should cause weakening. The new intensity forecast calls for the
cyclone to decay to a remnant low by 48 h and to dissipate
completely by 72 h. This much longevity could be generous, as
several of the global models forecast an earlier dissipation.

The initial motion is 290/8 kt. A general west-northwest motion is
forecast for about 12 h, followed by a turn toward the west and
eventually west-southwest. The track guidance is in good agreement
on this scenario, and the new forecast track is near the various
consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 18.9N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 19.2N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 19.2N 115.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 18.9N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 18.1N 117.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 26/1800Z 16.8N 119.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 240845
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Newton Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022

...NEWTON WEAKENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM SOCORRO ISLAND ...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 112.4W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Newton was
located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 112.4 West. Newton is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual
turn toward the west and southwest is expected during the next 24
to 36 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Newton is expected to weaken to a
tropical depression later today and to degenerate to a remnant low
pressure area by late Sunday or early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 240845
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM NEWTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152022
0900 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 112.4W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 112.4W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 112.1W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 19.2N 113.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.2N 115.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.9N 116.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.1N 117.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.8N 119.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 112.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 240400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15E (NEWTON) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (NEWTON) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 18.5N 111.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 111.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 19.0N 113.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 19.3N 114.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 19.1N 116.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.5N 117.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.7N 118.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
240400Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 112.0W.
24SEP22. TROPICAL STORM 15E (NEWTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 904
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 241000Z, 241600Z, 242200Z AND 250400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 240228
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
900 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022

The low-level center of Newton has once again become obscured
by convection flaring near the center. A recent GPM microwave pass,
the recent exposure of the low-level center, and scatterometer
passes a few hours ago give high confidence in the location of the
center. The initial intensity for this advisory remains at 40 kt
based on a blend of the Dvorak analyses, including fixes from PHFO,
SATCON and AODT.

Newton is expected to continue gradually weakening over the next
several days. The system will remain over SSTs between 27-28C
through 72 hours. The SHIPS and global models show the system will
encounter increasing southerly shear in about 12 to 24 hours.
The system will also be encountering drier air over the next
several days. All combined, these factors will lead to the slow
weakening of the system, transitioning to a remnant low and then
dissipating in 72 hours.

The system has moved a little more to the northwest with this
advisory, driven in part by the bursts of convection that have been
observed over the last several hours. This movement remains close
to the forecasted track. The system is expected to continue moving
to the northwest for the next 24 to 36 hours, before making a turn
to the southwest as it weakens. The forecast track remains on the
southern side of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 18.6N 111.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 19.0N 113.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 19.3N 114.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 19.1N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 18.5N 117.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 17.7N 118.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Powell/M Ballard


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 240227
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Newton Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
900 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022

...NEWTON SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND ...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 111.9W
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Newton was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 111.9 West. Newton is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and and is
expected to turn to the southwest in 24 to 36 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Newton is
expected to dissipate in 72 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Powell/M Ballard


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 240227
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM NEWTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152022
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0300 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 111.9W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 111.9W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 111.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 15SE 15SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.3N 114.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.1N 116.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.5N 117.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.7N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 111.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER POWELL/M BALLARD



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 232200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15E (NEWTON) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (NEWTON) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 18.0N 110.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 110.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 18.6N 112.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 19.0N 114.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 19.0N 115.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.5N 116.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.8N 118.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
232200Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 111.4W.
23SEP22. TROPICAL STORM 15E (NEWTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 943
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240400Z, 241000Z, 241600Z AND 242200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 232031
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
300 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022

The low-level center of Newton has become exposed, with the
convection sheared to the east and southeast of the center.
A census of the Dvorak estimates would support an initial
intensity around 45 kt. With visible imagery since fix time
continuing the shearing trend, the initial intensity for
this advisory is set to 40 kt. A 1635Z scatterometer pass
captured Newton, further supporting the low level center
location of the low level center. This places the center
about 15 nm to the south of the previous track.

Further weakening is expected as the storm moves to the west
into a drier and more stable airmass. SSTs are near 81F with
little change expected along the forecast track, so we not expecting
the SSTs to be much of a factor in the weakening of the system.
Newton is expected to transition to a remnant low and then
dissipate within 72 hours.

Newton continues to move to the west-northwest, but the short
term forward motion has slowed to around 4 kt as it moves along
the southwest edge of a mid-level ridge. The track has been
shifted just a touch to the south, but remains on the southern
side of the guidance envelope which remain tightly spread,
particularly in the short term.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 18.2N 111.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 18.6N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 19.0N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 19.0N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 18.5N 116.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 17.8N 118.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Powell/M Ballard


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 232026
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Newton Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
300 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022

...NEWTON PASSING SOUTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 111.3W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Newton was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 111.3 West. Newton is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and is
expected to turn to the southwest in 24 to 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Newton is
expected to dissipate in 72 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Powell/M Ballard


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 232024
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM NEWTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152022
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
2100 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 111.3W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 111.3W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 110.9W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.6N 112.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 15SE 15SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 19.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.0N 115.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.5N 116.9W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.8N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 111.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER POWELL/M BALLARD



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 231600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15E (NEWTON) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (NEWTON) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 18.2N 110.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 110.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 18.8N 112.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 19.4N 113.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 19.7N 115.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 19.5N 116.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.6N 118.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.8N 119.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
231600Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 111.0W.
23SEP22. TROPICAL STORM 15E (NEWTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 940
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 232200Z, 240400Z, 241000Z AND 241600Z.REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14E (MADELINE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 231449
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
900 AM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022

Newton has had deep, persistent convection through the morning
with cloud top temperatures are below -75 degrees C. Microwave
imagery shows a small inner core, but not with the same definition
as yesterday. A blend of the satellite Dvorak estimates supports
an initial intensity of 45 kt for this advisory.

Gradual weakening is expected while the storm moves into a drier,
more stable environment to the north. Statistical model guidance
also indicates vertical wind shear to increase in a day or so which
is likely to contribute to additional weakening. Eventual
transition into a remnant low is forecast within about three days,
and little change was made to the previous NHC prediction.

Newton is moving west-northwestward at about 6 kt along the
southwest edge of a mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico,
although there is some uncertainty in the initial position since
the low-level center has tucked up underneath a burst of convection.
The center is estimated to be slightly north of the previous track
forecast, and therefore the short-term model track guidance has
shifted northward as well. Beyond 24 hours, the official track
forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and within the
small spread of the multi-model consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 18.4N 110.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 18.8N 112.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 19.4N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 19.7N 115.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 19.5N 116.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 18.6N 118.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/1200Z 17.8N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 231449
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Newton Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
900 AM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022

...NEWTON NEARING SOCORRO ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 110.9W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Newton was
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 110.9 West. Newton is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of
days. A west-southwestward turn is forecast by Sunday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is forecast, and Newton is expected to degenerate
into a post-tropical remnant low late on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 231449
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM NEWTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152022
1500 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 110.9W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 15SE 15SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 110.9W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 110.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.8N 112.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.4N 113.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 15SE 15SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.7N 115.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.5N 116.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.6N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.8N 119.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 110.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 231000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15E (NEWTON) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (NEWTON) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 18.0N 110.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 110.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 18.4N 111.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 19.1N 113.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 19.7N 114.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 19.8N 116.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 19.2N 117.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 18.1N 118.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
231000Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 110.6W.
23SEP22. TROPICAL STORM 15E (NEWTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 959
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231600Z, 232200Z,
240400Z AND 241000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14E (MADELINE)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 230850
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
300 AM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022

Tonight's satellite presentation consists of a pulsating, shapeless
convective mass just east of the surface circulation. A 0430 UTC
METOP-B ASCAT pass revealed peak surface winds of 33 kt in the east
quadrant. A blend of the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB along with the likely under-sampled scatterometer pass
supports lowering the initial intensity to 45 kt.

Slow weakening is forecast while the cyclone moves into a dry,
stable lower boundary marine layer invading from the northwest. The
statistical SHIPS and the global models also indicate that Newton
will encounter increasing southerly shear. Again, these factors are
likely to result in slow weakening and degeneration to a remnant low
no later than Saturday night.

Newton's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or
285/6 kt. The cyclone is moving along the southwest periphery of a
subtropical ridge stretching westward from northwestern Mexico.
Newton should continue in this general direction through early
Sunday, then turn west-southwestward within the trade wind flow
through the end of the period as a vertically shallow remnant low.
Only a slight adjustment was made to the south of the previous
forecast beyond the 48-hour period to come in closer agreement with
the NOAA HFIP HCCA model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 18.1N 110.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 18.4N 111.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 19.1N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 19.7N 114.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 19.8N 116.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 19.2N 117.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/0600Z 18.1N 118.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 230849
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Newton Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
300 AM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022

...NEWTON WEAKENS SOME WHILE APPROACHING SOCORRO ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 110.4W
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Newton was
located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 110.4 West. Newton is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of
days. A turn west-southwestward is forecast by Sunday evening.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast and Newton is
expected to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 230849
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM NEWTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152022
0900 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 110.4W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 110.4W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 110.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 18.4N 111.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 19.1N 113.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 15SE 15SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 19.7N 114.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.8N 116.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.2N 117.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.1N 118.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 110.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 230400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15E (NEWTON) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (NEWTON) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 17.8N 109.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 109.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 18.2N 110.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 18.8N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 19.4N 114.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 19.8N 116.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 19.7N 117.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 19.3N 118.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
230400Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 109.9W.
23SEP22. TROPICAL STORM 15E (NEWTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 986
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 231000Z, 231600Z, 232200Z AND 240400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 230235
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
900 PM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022

The satellite presentation of Newton has improved this evening, with
deep convection once again reforming over the low-level circulation
center. The latest satellite intensity estimates have changed little
during the past 6 hours, remaining between 35 and 55 knots, and as a
result the initial intensity will be held at 50 knots.

Newton continues to move slightly north of due west at 280/6 kt.
The cyclone is moving along the southwest periphery of a mid-level
ridge over the south-central U.S. The system is expected to continue
to track slightly north of due west during the next couple of days
as it is steered by this mid-level ridge. Drier environmental air
should ultimately lead to a collapse in deep convection over the
weekend, which should allow Newton to be steered by the low-level
flow by Sunday, with dissipation shortly thereafter. The NHC track
forecast was nudged slightly south of the previous advisory, and
lies very close to the multi-model track consensus guidance.

The environmental conditions remain conducive for maintaining deep
convection during the next day or two, before drier mid-level and
slightly stronger southerly shear begin to take more of a toll on
Newton. The intensity forecast shows little change in strength
tonight, with gradual weakening then expected until dissipation.
Newton is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low Saturday
night, if not sooner.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 17.9N 109.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 18.2N 110.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 18.8N 112.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 19.4N 114.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 19.8N 116.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 19.7N 117.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/0000Z 19.3N 118.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg/Jelsema


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 230234
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Newton Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
900 PM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022

...NEWTON CONTINUES MOVING TOWARDS SOCORRO ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 109.8W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Newton was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 109.8 West. Newton is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected later tonight, with this general
motion continuing for the next couple days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow weakening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Jelsema


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 230234
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM NEWTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152022
0300 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 109.8W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 109.8W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 109.4W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.2N 110.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.8N 112.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 15SE 15SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.4N 114.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.8N 116.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.7N 117.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.3N 118.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 109.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG/JELSEMA



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 222200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15E (NEWTON) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (NEWTON) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 17.9N 108.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 108.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 18.2N 110.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 18.7N 111.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 19.3N 113.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 19.8N 114.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 20.0N 116.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 19.9N 117.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
222200Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 109.1W.
22SEP22. TROPICAL STORM 15E (NEWTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 997
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230400Z, 231000Z, 231600Z AND 232200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 222042
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
300 PM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022

Convection in the core of Newton has collapsed rather suddenly in
the past few hours, likely due to the ingestion of dry air. The
central dense overcast is largely gone and only small bursts of
convection are still firing near the estimated center where cloud
top temperatures are warmer than -70 degrees C. Subjective Dvorak
classification still range between 35 to 55 kt, though the objective
estimates have been declining since the previous advisory. The
initial intensity has therefore been lowered to 50 kt.

Newton continues to move west-northwestward at 285/6 kt. The
cyclone is moving along the southwest periphery of a
well-established ridge centered over Texas. This ridge will be the
main feature steering the storm until the shallow vortex turns
westward in about 3 days. The model guidance envelope has shifted
northward beyond the 36 hour forecast period. In response, the
official track forecast has been shift slightly to the right of
previous advisory after a day or so.

The small size of Newton has made it susceptible to modest changes
in the near-storm environment. Though the statistical guidance is
analyzing low vertical wind shear, the satellite presentation of the
storm would suggest a dry air intrusion has interrupted
strengthening and induced weakening. Forecast Intensity Guidance
now indicates Newton will weaken and ultimately become a remnant low
in a couple of days or so. The NHC intensity prediction no longer
shows strengthening and instead calls for gradual weakening until
dissipation at 96 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 18.0N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 18.2N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 18.7N 111.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 19.3N 113.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 19.8N 114.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 20.0N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/1800Z 19.9N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 222040
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Newton Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
300 PM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022

...NEWTON MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS SOCORRO ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 109.0W
ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Newton was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 109.0 West. Newton is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Newton is forecast to gradually weaken through the
weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 222040
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM NEWTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152022
2100 UTC THU SEP 22 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 109.0W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 109.0W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 108.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 18.2N 110.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 18.7N 111.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 19.3N 113.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 19.8N 114.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.0N 116.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.9N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 109.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 221600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15E (NEWTON) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (NEWTON) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 17.8N 108.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 108.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 18.1N 109.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 18.4N 110.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 19.0N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 19.4N 114.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 19.6N 115.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 19.8N 117.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
221600Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 108.6W.
22SEP22. TROPICAL STORM 15E (NEWTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1018
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222200Z, 230400Z,
231000Z AND 231600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14E (MADELINE)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 221446
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
900 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022

Newton remains a small, well-organized tropical cyclone. A
microwave pass from 1210 UTC revealed a tiny eye-like feature.
While the central dense overcast has warmed, upper-level outflow is
still prominent in the southern and eastern portions of the
circulation, and new deep convection continues to form in the core.
There is still a relatively large range of satellite intensity
estimates (35-55 kt), likely due to the small size of the cyclone,
but the initial intensity is raised to 55 kt with the improved
microwave structure.

The storm is moving west-northwestward at 7 kt. A ridge to the
northeast is steering Newton and should be the dominant synoptic
feature influencing the track for the next few days. The track
prediction is largely unchanged from the previous advisory and in
the center of the tightly clustered model guidance.

The intensity forecast for this system remains somewhat uncertain.
Global model guidance has largely missed the development and
intensification of Newton, again, possibly due to its size.
Statistical guidance suggests the cyclone will be in a conducive
atmospheric environment for the next 24 hours before the vertical
wind shear increases and mid-level moisture begins to decrease
further. Sea surface temperatures are expected to also gradually
decrease as Newton moves near the cold wake of Kay and Madeline.
The official intensity forecast keeps Newton at 55 kt before
weakening begins in 24 hours through the end of the forecast as
oceanic and atmospheric conditions become less favorable. The
prediction still shows Newton as a post-tropical remnant low by 72
hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 17.9N 108.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 18.1N 109.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 18.4N 110.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 19.0N 112.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 19.4N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 19.6N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 25/1200Z 19.8N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 221445
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Newton Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
900 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022

...SMALL NEWTON MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 108.4W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Newton was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 108.4 West. Newton is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Newton is forecast to maintain its strength for a day
followed by gradually weakening through the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 221445
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM NEWTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152022
1500 UTC THU SEP 22 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 108.4W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 108.4W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 108.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 18.1N 109.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.4N 110.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.4N 114.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.6N 115.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.8N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 108.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 221000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15E (NEWTON) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (NEWTON) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 17.6N 107.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 107.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.0N 109.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 18.2N 110.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 18.6N 112.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 19.2N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 19.3N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 19.3N 116.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
221000Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 108.1W.
22SEP22. TROPICAL STORM 15E (NEWTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1041
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z
IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221600Z, 222200Z, 230400Z AND 231000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14E (MADELINE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 220853
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
300 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022

Newton is a small, but well-organized tropical cyclone. The earlier
banding pattern has now evolved more into a very small central
dense overcast. While we have not received any recent microwave or
scatterometer data in the last 6 hours, the earlier GPM pass at 2207
UTC suggested a formative inner core was taking shape. Satellite
intensity estimates cover a large range this morning, from
T2.5/35-kt from SAB, T3.5/55-kt from TAFB, and T2.8/41-kt from
UW-CIMSS ADT. Favoring the higher end of those estimates, the
initial intensity was raised to 50-kt for this advisory.

Newton continues to move to the west-northwest but is beginning to
slow down somewhat, with the latest estimate at 285/8 kt. This
general motion with an additional slow down in forward motion is
expected over the next 24-36 hours as the system remains steered by
a prominent mid-level ridge to the northeast. The NHC track this
cycle was adjusted ever so slightly faster, but remains close to
the tightly clustered consensus aids.

The intensity forecast is a bit tricky for Newton. The storm is very
small, and has not been recently sampled by scatterometer or
microwave imagery, so it is unclear if the inner core structure seen
earlier on microwave yesterday evening has persisted. Vertical wind
shear, as diagnosed by the GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS is expected to
remain at or under 10 kts for the next 2-3 days. However, the
tropical cyclone will be moving over the cold wake induced by
Hurricane Kay and more recently Tropical Storm Madeline over the
last several weeks. Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) drop below 26 C
in around 24 hours. The global models respond to this environment by
showing all convection collapsing near Newton in 24-48 hours and it
seems that the small circulation will not be able to survive these
anomalously cold SSTs. Then again, the cyclone is so small, the
guidance may not be resolving the current structure of the cyclone
well. Thus the latest NHC intensity forecast calls for a little bit
of additional intensification today, similar to the SHIPS guidance
in the short-term. After that, the cooler SSTs should induce a
weakening trend, and Newton is still expected to become a
post-tropical remnant low by 60 hours, continuing to blend the
dynamical and statistical intensity aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 17.7N 107.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 18.0N 109.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 18.2N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 18.6N 112.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 19.2N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 24/1800Z 19.3N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/0600Z 19.3N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 220852
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Newton Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
300 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022

...TINY NEWTON STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 107.8W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Newton was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 107.8 West. Newton is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This
motion is expected to continue during the next couple days with
a decrease in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast today,
followed by weakening beginning early Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 220851
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM NEWTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152022
0900 UTC THU SEP 22 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 107.8W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 107.8W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 107.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.0N 109.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 18.2N 110.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 18.6N 112.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 19.2N 113.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 19.3N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.3N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 107.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 220400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15E (NEWTON) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (NEWTON) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 17.5N 106.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 106.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.0N 108.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 18.3N 109.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 18.6N 110.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 18.9N 111.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 19.3N 113.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
220400Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 107.1W.
22SEP22. TROPICAL STORM 15E (NEWTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1074
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221000Z, 221600Z, 222200Z AND 230400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 220245
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
900 PM MDT Wed Sep 21 2022

The satellite presentation of the recently formed Tropical
Depression Fifteen has improved considerably during the past 24
hours. A well defined banding structure has developed and held in
place during the past several hours, with nice outflow evident
aloft in satellite imagery. The latest intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB were 35 knots, while ADT and AiDT from UW-CIMSS indicating
slightly lower. These intensity estimates appear to be a bit behind
the curve given the banding structure and organization seen in
recent microwave imagery. In fact, TAFB provided a Dvorak pattern
T-number of 3.0 (45 kt), which is the basis for the initial
intensity of this advisory.

The initial motion estimate on Newton is to the west-northwest
or 285/11 kt. This general motion with a gradual slowing in the
forward speed is expected during the next several days as the
cyclone is steered by a mid-level ridge to the northeast and a
weakness aloft to the west associated with the remnants of former
tropical cyclone Madeline. The NHC track forecast was adjusted
slightly faster and a bit north of the previous forecast, and is
close to the tightly clustered consensus track guidance.

Environmental conditions appear favorable for some additional
strengthening tonight and Wednesday, as vertical wind shear remains
low, mid-levels moist, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remain at
27/28C. Beyond this, while shear remains low, the mid-levels dry out
considerably and SSTs decrease to near 26C. This should lead to
steady weakening with Newton degenerating into a post-tropical
remnant low Friday night or Saturday, and dissipating shortly
thereafter. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted upward to
account for the increase in initial intensity, and is roughly
between the statistical and dynamical intensity aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 17.6N 107.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 18.0N 108.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 18.3N 109.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 18.6N 110.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 18.9N 111.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 19.3N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown/Jelsema


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 220244
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Newton Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
900 PM MDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...TROPICAL STORM NEWTON STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 107.0W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Newton was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 107.0 West. Newton is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This
motion is expected to continue during the next couple days with
a decrease in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next day or so,
followed by steady weakening thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Jelsema


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 220243
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM NEWTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152022
0300 UTC THU SEP 22 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 107.0W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 107.0W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 106.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.0N 108.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 10SE 10SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 18.3N 109.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 10SE 10SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.6N 110.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 10SE 10SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.9N 111.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.3N 113.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 107.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/JELSEMA



>

Original Message :

WTPZ65 KNHC 220052
TCUEP5

Tropical Storm Newton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
755 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM NEWTON...

Satellite images indicate that Tropical Depression Fifteen-E has
strengthened and is now Tropical Storm Newton with maximum
sustained winds of 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. This
intensity will be accounted for in the advisory being released at
1000 pm CDT (0300 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 755 PM CDT...0050 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 106.6W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg/Jelsema

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 212042
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022

A new tropical depression has formed in the east Pacific basin.
The satellite presentation of now Tropical Depression Fifteen-E
has improved over the past 24 hours. Visible imagery shows decent
upper-level outflow in the western semicircle and cold cloud tops as
low as -70 degrees C. Due to the increase in convective
organization, the initial intensity is set to 30 kt, slightly
higher than the subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The depression is moving just north of west at 275/9 kt. It is
moving along the southwest periphery of a mid-level ridge centered
over Texas. This ridge is expected to steer the system to the
west-northwest for the next couple of days at a gradually slower
forward speed. The model guidance is relatively tightly
clustered and the NHC track forecast is close to the multi-model
consensus aids.

The environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally
conducive for slight development over the next couple days.
Oceanic surface temperatures, atmospheric moisture and vertical
wind shear are likely to allow the depression to reach and maintain
tropical cyclone strength for the next couple of days. Beyond that
time frame, the cyclone is forecast to traverse cooler waters and
enter a drier, more stable environment. The system is expected to
become a remnant low by 72 hours and open into a trough shortly
thereafter.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 17.1N 105.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 17.5N 106.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 17.8N 107.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 17.9N 108.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 18.2N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 18.5N 111.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 18.9N 112.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Jelsema


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 212041
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...YET ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 105.3W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fifteen-E was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 105.3
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17
km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is expected this evening
or tonight, and a slower west-northwestward motion should then
continue over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible in the next couple of days,
and the depression could become a tropical storm tonight or
Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Jelsema


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 212041
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152022
2100 UTC WED SEP 21 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 105.3W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 105.3W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 104.9W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.5N 106.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.8N 107.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.9N 108.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 18.2N 110.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.5N 111.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.9N 112.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 105.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/JELSEMA



>