Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BALITA-22
Off-shore

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Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 091500
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 221009132432
2022100912 03S BALITA 008 01 160 06 SATL 040
T000 156S 0871E 035 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 125 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 162S 0872E 030
T024 160S 0861E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BALITA) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BALITA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 87.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 87.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.2S 87.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 16.0S 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 87.1E.
09OCT22. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BALITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
998 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z
IS 15 FEET.//
0322100406 83S 893E 25
0322100412 83S 890E 25
0322100418 85S 888E 25
0322100500 87S 886E 25
0322100506 89S 884E 30
0322100512 90S 880E 30
0322100518 93S 873E 35
0322100600 95S 867E 35
0322100606 95S 865E 35
0322100612 94S 863E 35
0322100618 94S 861E 35
0322100700 96S 855E 35
0322100706 99S 851E 35
0322100712 105S 851E 35
0322100718 111S 853E 35
0322100800 116S 855E 35
0322100806 123S 857E 35
0322100812 131S 859E 40
0322100818 138S 862E 35
0322100900 144S 865E 35
0322100906 150S 869E 35
0322100912 156S 871E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BALITA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BALITA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 87.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 87.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.2S 87.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 16.0S 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 87.1E.
09OCT22. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BALITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
998 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM
WITH EXTENSIVE COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS ADVECTING OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF A BROADENING, RAGGED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A
091101Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING
AROUND THE WEAKLY-DEFINED LLC WITH POORLY-ORGANIZED, RAPIDLY-DECAYING
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER 250NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY,
THE SYSTEM IS ENTRAINING DRY AIR AND POSITIONED OVER MARGINAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (25C). TC 03S HAS SLOWED AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG LOW-LEVEL HIGH
ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH WITH DISSIPATION ANTICIPATED BY TAU 12. DUE
TO THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SYSTEM AND THE HIGH, A BELT OF 30-
35 KNOT EASTERLIES WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR
HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 15 FEET.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 091207
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/10/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 09/10/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-BALITA) 1002 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 87.3 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 340 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND
UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
170 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 250 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/10/10 AT 00 UTC:
16.8 S / 86.9 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 360 NM SW: 230 NM NW: 180 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 220 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/10/10 AT 12 UTC:
16.3 S / 85.9 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 350 NM SW: 240 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION. FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION, REFER TO METAREA VIII SHIPPING BULLETINS (FQIO25).=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 090633
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/2/20222023
1.A DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE 2 (BALITA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 09/10/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.7 S / 86.9 E
(QUINZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SIX DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1001 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 595 SO: 405 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SO: 205 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 09/10/2022 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 87.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 650 SO: 405 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 335 SO: 280 NO: 0

24H: 10/10/2022 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 86.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 610 SO: 350 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SO: 205 NO: 0

36H: 10/10/2022 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 85.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 595 SO: 335 NO: 0

48H: 11/10/2022 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

60H: 11/10/2022 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

72H: 12/10/2022 06 UTC: 14.5 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=/ CI=/

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA STRUCTURE DE LA CIRCULATION A
CONTINUE A DEVENIR DE PLUS EN PULS ALLONGEE ET ASYMETRIQUE, COMME LE
MONTRENT L'IMAGERIE SATELLITAIRE CLASSIQUE ET LA PASSE MICRO-ONDES
GMI DE 0322Z. DE PLUS, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE A CONTINUE A ETRE
REJETEE DE PLUS EN PLUS LOIN AU SUD-EST DU CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES,
QUI EST DEVENU EXPOSE (A 06Z, IL N'Y A PLUS DE CONVECTION A SOMMETS
FROIDS DANS UN RAYON DE 100MN DU CENTRE), SIGNE DE L'INJECTION D'AIR
SEC DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU-DESSUS DE LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES
COUCHES PAR LA CONTRAINTE DE NORD-OUEST A 400HPA. BALITA EST DONC
TRES NETTEMENT EN TRAIN DE PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES ET
EST DONC DECLASSE EN DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE A 06Z. LES VENTS
MAXIMAUX RESTENT ESTIMES A 35KT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD,
PARTIELLEMENT CONFIRME PAR UNE PASSE SMOS A 0002Z (34KT) ET PAR LES
DONNEES ASCAT PARTIELLES DE 0251Z ET 0343Z (35/40KT DANS LE QUADRANT
SUD-EST SOUS LA CONVECTION, DONC PROBABLEMENT UN PEU SURESTIME).

PAS DE CHANGEMENT SIGNIFICATIF AU NIVEAU DE LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE :
LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD SE MAINTIENT ENCORE CE DIMANCHE ENTRE LE
COL BAROMETRIQUE AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME ET UNE DORSALE
PROCHE-EQUATORIALE SITUEE A L'EST. MAIS A PARTIR DE LA NUIT
PROCHAINE, UN VIRAGE VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT S'AMORCER, AVEC
UN FLUX DIRECTEUR QUI DEVIENT PILOTE PAR UNE NOUVELLE CELLULE
ANTICYCLONIQUE SUBTROPICALE SE RENFORCANT AU SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD DU
SYSTEME.

L'INVASION MASSIVE D'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE A L'APLOMB DU
MINIMUM VA SE POURSUIVRE JUSQU'A LA NUIT PROCHAINE, NE LAISSANT PLUS
AUCUNE CHANCE DE REDEVELOPPEMENT TROPICAL. L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA
CONVECTION ET L'ASYMETRISATION DU SYSTEME VONT DONC SE POURSUIVRE.
LES VENTS MAXIMAUX PEUVENT ENCORE ATTEINDRE LE COUP DE VENT JUSQU'EN
MI-JOURNEE DE LUNDI DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT
AVEC LES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES, PUIS LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL
DEVRAIT RAPIDEMENT SE COMBLER EN ETANT REPRIS PAR LE FLUX D'ALIZES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 090633
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/2/20222023
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (BALITA)

2.A POSITION 2022/10/09 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 86.9 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 595 SW: 405 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/10/09 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 87.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 650 SW: 405 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 335 SW: 280 NW: 0

24H: 2022/10/10 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 86.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 610 SW: 350 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SW: 205 NW: 0

36H: 2022/10/10 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 85.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 595 SW: 335 NW: 0

48H: 2022/10/11 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

60H: 2022/10/11 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2022/10/12 06 UTC: 14.5 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=/ CI=/

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM'S STRUCTURE HAS KEPT BECOMING
MORE AND MORE ELONGATED AND ASYMMETRICAL, AS SEEN ON CLASSIC
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE 0322Z GMI MICRO-WAVE PASS. MOREOVER, DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN REJECTED FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTHEAST FROM THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER, WHICH IS NOW CLEARLY EXPOSED (AT 06Z, THERE IS NO
LONGER ANY COLD CONVECTIVE CLOUD-TOPS WITHIN 100NM FROM THE CENTER),
WHICH INDICATES THAT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER
THE LLC DUE TO THE NORTHWESTERLY MID-SHEAR. BALITA IS THUS CLEARLY
LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 06Z. MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN ESTIMATED AT
35KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WHICH IS PARTLY CONFIRMED BY A
0002Z SMOS PASS (34KT) AND 0251Z AND 0343Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES
(35/40KT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT UNDER CONVECTION, SO PROBABLY A
BIT OVERESTIMATED).

NO PARTICULAR CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST : THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP
TRACKING SOUTHWARD THIS SUNDAY BETWEEN A BAROMETRIC COL TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. BUT AS FROM
TONIGHT A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN WILL TAKE PLACE, DUE TO STEERING
FLOW BEING DRIVEN BY A NEW SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST
THEN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.

MASSIVE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INVASION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TONIGHT, PREVENTING ANY CHANCES OF
TROPICAL REDEVELOPMENT. CONVECTION SHOULD THUS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
WHILE THE SYSTEM'S KEEPS BECOMING MORE ASYMMETRICAL. MAXIMUM WINDS
CAN STILL REACH GALE FORCE UNTIL MONDAY MID-DAY IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
CELL, THEN THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD RAPIDLY FILL UP WHILE DRIFTING IN
THE TRADE WINDS FLOW.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 090615
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/10/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 09/10/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (BALITA) 1001 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 86.9 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 280 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 320 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/10/09 AT 18 UTC:
16.7 S / 87.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 350 NM SW: 220 NM NW: 160 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/10/10 AT 06 UTC:
16.5 S / 86.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 330 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 090300
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 221009005919
2022100900 03S BALITA 007 01 155 10 SATL 060
T000 152S 0866E 040 R034 070 NE QD 150 SE QD 215 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 164S 0869E 045 R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD
T024 169S 0866E 040 R034 055 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 010 NW QD
T036 167S 0859E 035 R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 162S 0848E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BALITA) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BALITA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 15.2S 86.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 86.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 16.4S 86.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.9S 86.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 16.7S 85.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 16.2S 84.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 86.7E.
09OCT22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BALITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 961
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091500Z AND 100300Z.
//
0322100406 83S 893E 25
0322100412 83S 890E 25
0322100418 85S 888E 25
0322100500 87S 886E 25
0322100506 89S 884E 30
0322100512 90S 880E 30
0322100518 93S 873E 35
0322100600 95S 867E 35
0322100606 95S 865E 35
0322100612 94S 863E 35
0322100618 94S 861E 35
0322100700 96S 855E 35
0322100706 99S 851E 35
0322100712 105S 851E 35
0322100718 111S 853E 35
0322100800 116S 855E 35
0322100806 123S 857E 35
0322100812 131S 859E 40
0322100818 143S 862E 40
0322100900 152S 866E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BALITA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BALITA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 15.2S 86.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 86.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 16.4S 86.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.9S 86.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 16.7S 85.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 16.2S 84.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 86.7E.
09OCT22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BALITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 961
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091500Z AND 100300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 090052
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/2/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BALITA)

2.A POSITION 2022/10/09 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 86.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 405 SW: 370 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/10/09 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 87.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 435 SW: 260 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 0

24H: 2022/10/10 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 87.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 455 SW: 260 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 0

36H: 2022/10/10 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 86.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 345 SW: 305 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2022/10/11 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

60H: 2022/10/11 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2022/10/12 00 UTC: 15.4 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=2.5-

SINCE 18Z, BALITA'S STRUCTURE STARTED TO LOSE SYMMETRY. THE MICROWAVE
IMAGES FROM 1951Z AMSR2 AND 2145Z SSMIS COMBINED WITH THE CLASSICAL
IMAGERY SHOW INDEED THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS REJECTED TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTH-EAST OF THE CENTER WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION STARTS
CLEARLY TO STRETCH OUT. THIS EVOLUTION IS RELATED TO THE INCREASE OF
THE NORTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT AROUND 400HPA.

NO CHANGE FOR THE TRACK FORECAST : THE SYSTEM KEEPS MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD, DRIVEN BY A NORTH-NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A
BAROMETRIC COL AT ITS SOUTH-WEST AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED
AT EAST. THEN FROM TONIGHT, A NEW SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE CELL
SHOULD SLIDE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, WHILE THE RIDGE TO
THE EAST DISAPPEARS, AND STEER THE SYSTEM'S TRAJECTORY WESTWARD.
THERE IS STILL A SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE MOVEMENT SPEED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, AND ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS WESTWARD TURN.

BALITA SEEMS TO START LOOSING SOME OF ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
(TO BE CONFIRMED IN THE NEXT HOURS). THE FAVOURABLE WINDOW FOR ITS
DEVELOPMENT SEEMS TO BE CLOSED WITH THE INCREASE OF THE
NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF A MID- TROPOSPHERE TROUGH. TODAY, THE
LATTER SHOULD FAVOUR THE ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR OVER THE CENTER AS WELL
AS A NOTABLE LOSS OF SYMMETRY ON THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, THE MAXIMUM
WINDS COULD STRENGTHEN PARTICULARLY IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE
SOUTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RESIDUAL MINIMUM SHOULD QUICKLY FILL IN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 090052
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/2/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 2 (BALITA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 09/10/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.2 S / 86.8 E
(QUINZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SIX DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 405 SO: 370 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 09/10/2022 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 87.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 435 SO: 260 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SO: 195 NO: 0

24H: 10/10/2022 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 87.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 455 SO: 260 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 215 NO: 0

36H: 10/10/2022 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 86.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 345 SO: 305 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SO: 0 NO: 0

48H: 11/10/2022 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

60H: 11/10/2022 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

72H: 12/10/2022 00 UTC: 15.4 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0 CI=2.5-

DEPUIS 18Z, LA STRUCTURE DE BALITA A COMMENCE A PERDRE EN SYMETRIE.
LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES AMSR2 DE 1951Z ET SSMIS DE 2145Z COMBINEE AU
IMAGERIES CLASSIQUES MONTRENT EN EFFET QUE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE EST
REJETEE AU SUD VOIRE AU SUD-EST DU CENTRE TANDIS QUE LA CIRCULATION
DE BASSES COUCHES COMMENCE NETTEMENT A S'ALLONGER. CETTE EVOLUTION
EST LIEE AU RENFORCEMENT DE LA CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST VERS
400HPA.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT AU NIVEAU DE LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE : LE SYSTEME
CONSERVE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST, SOUMIS A UN FLUX
DIRECTEUR DE COMPOSANTE NORD-NORD-OUEST ENTRE UN COL BAROMETRIQUE AU
SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME ET LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE SITUEE A L'EST.
PUIS A PARTIR DE CE SOIR, UNE NOUVELLE CELLULE ANTICYCLONIQUE
SUBTROPICALE DEVRAIT GLISSER AU SUD-SUD-EST DU SYSTEME, ALORS QUE LA
DORSALE A L'EST DISPARAIT, ET DIRIGER LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME
FRANCHEMENT EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST. IL EST A NOTER UNE INCERTITUDE
ENCORE IMPORTANTE SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES HEURES, ET LE TIMING EXACT DE CE VIRAGE VERS L'OUEST

BALITA SEMBLE AVOIR COMMENCE A PERDRE CERTAINES DE SES
CARACTERITISTIQUES TROPICALES (A CONFIRMER DANS LES PROCHAINES
HEURES). LA FENETRE FAVORABLE A SON DEVELOPPEMENT SEMBLE S'ETRE
REFERME AVEC LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST A
L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. CE DERNIER DEVRAIT
AUJOURD'HUI DIMANCHE, FAVORISER L'ARRIVEE D'AIR SEC AU DESSUS DU
CENTRE AINSI QU'UNE PERTE NOTABLE DE SYMETRIE EN SURFACE. LES VENTS
MAXIMAUX POURRAIENT SE RENFORCER NOTAMMENT DANS LE GRADIENT DE
PRESSION AU SUD. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL
DEVRAIT RAPIDEMENT SE COMBLER.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 090027
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/10/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 09/10/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BALITA) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 86.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM UN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 50
NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/10/09 AT 12 UTC:
16.5 S / 87.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 235 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/10/10 AT 00 UTC:
17.0 S / 87.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 245 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 081847
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/2/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 2 (BALITA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 08/10/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.6 S / 86.4 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SIX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 405 SO: 370 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 09/10/2022 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 86.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 315 SO: 285 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 85 NO: 0

24H: 09/10/2022 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 87.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 400 SO: 350 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SO: 185 NO: 0

36H: 10/10/2022 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 86.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 345 SO: 305 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 0

48H: 10/10/2022 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 400 SO: 305 NO: 0

60H: 11/10/2022 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 84.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

72H: 11/10/2022 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5-

DEPUIS 12Z, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE BALITA A PEU EVOLUE AVEC
TOUJOURS UNE CONVECTION PROFONDE MARQUEE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST
EN LIEN AVEC LA CONFIGURATION CISAILLE DU SYSTEME DU AU CISAILLEMENT
D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. IL N'Y A PAS EU DE PASSE
ASCAT SUR LE SYSTEME, MAIS LA PASSE SMAP DE 1230Z CONFIRME UNE
INTENSITE PROCHE DE 35KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT AU NIVEAU DE LA TRAJECTOIRE : LE SYSTEME CONSERVE
SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST, SOUMIS A UN FLUX DIRECTEUR DE
COMPOSANTE NORD-NORD-OUEST ENTRE UN COL BAROMETRIQUE AU SUD-OUEST DU
SYSTEME ET LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE SITUEE A L'EST.
PUIS A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE SOIR, UNE NOUVELLE CELLULE ANTICYCLONIQUE
SUBTROPICALE DEVRAIT GLISSER AU SUD-SUD-EST DU SYSTEME, ALORS QUE LA
DORSALE A L'EST DISPARAIT, ET DIRIGER LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME
FRANCHEMENT EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST. IL EST A NOTER UNE INCERTITUDE
ENCORE IMPORTANTE SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES HEURES, ET LE TIMING EXACT DE CE VIRAGE VERS L'OUEST

BALITA EST VRAISEMBLABLEMENT PROCHE DE SON PIC D'INTENSITE EN TANT
QUE SYSTEME PUREMENT TROPICAL. EN EFFET, LA FENETRE FAVORABLE A SON
DEVELOPPEMENT SEMBLE VOULOIR BIENTOT SE REFERMER AVEC LA HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE. CE DERNIER DEVRAIT DES DEMAIN DIMANCHE, FAVORISER
L'ARRIVEE D'AIR SEC AU DESSUS DU CENTRE AINSI QU'UNE PERTE NOTABLE DE
SYMETRIE EN SURFACE LE SYSTEME EST DONC PREVU CERTAINES DE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES DEMAIN MEME SI DANS LE MEME TEMPS, LES
VENTS MAXIMAUX POURRAIENT SE RENFORCER NOTAMMENT DANS LE GRADIENT DE
PRESSION AU SUD. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL
DEVRAIT RAPIDEMENT SE COMBLER.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 081847
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/2/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BALITA)

2.A POSITION 2022/10/08 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 86.4 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 405 SW: 370 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/10/09 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 86.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 315 SW: 285 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 0

24H: 2022/10/09 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 87.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 400 SW: 350 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 185 NW: 0

36H: 2022/10/10 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 86.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 345 SW: 305 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 0

48H: 2022/10/10 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 400 SW: 305 NW: 0

60H: 2022/10/11 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 84.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2022/10/11 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5-

SINCE 12Z, THE CLOUD PATTERN OF BALITA HAS BARELY CHANGED WITH STILL
A STRONG DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH WESTERN QUADRANT IN RELATION
WITH A SHEAR PATTERN OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO THE WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY
SHEAR IN THE MID TROPOSPHERE. THERE WAS NO ASCAT PASS ON THE SYSTEM,
BUT THE 1230Z SMAP PASS CONFIRMED AN INTENSITY CLOSE TO 35KT.

NO CHANGE FOR THE TRACK FORECAST : THE SYSTEM KEEPS MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD, DRIVEN BY A NORTH-NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A
BAROMETRIC COL AT ITS SOUTH-WEST AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED
AT EAST. THEN FROM SUNDAY EVENING, A NEW SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
CELL SHOULD SLIDE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, WHILE THE
RIDGE TO THE EAST DISAPPEARS, AND STEER THE SYSTEM'S TRAJECTORY
WESTWARD. THERE IS STILL A SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE MOVEMENT SPEED
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS WESTWARD
TURN.

BALITA IS PROBABLY CLOSE TO ITS PEAK INTENSITY AS A PURE TROPICAL
SYSTEM. INDEED, THE FAVOURABLE WINDOW FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT SEEMS TO BE
CLOSING SOON WITH THE INCREASE OF THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF A
MID- TROPOSPHERE TROUGH. FROM TOMORROW, THE LATTER SHOULD FAVOUR THE
ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR OVER THE CENTER AS WELL AS A NOTABLE LOSS OF
SYMMETRY ON THE SURFACE. THE SYSTEM IS THUS EXPECTED TO LOSE SOME OF
ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TOMORROW EVEN IF AT THE SAME TIME, THE
MAXIMUM WINDS COULD STRENGTHEN PARTICULARLY IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO THE SOUTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RESIDUAL MINIMUM SHOULD QUICKLY
FILL IN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 081819
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/10/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 08/10/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BALITA) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 86.4 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 50
NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/10/09 AT 06 UTC:
16.3 S / 86.9 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/10/09 AT 18 UTC:
17.2 S / 87.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 081217
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/2/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 2 (BALITA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 08/10/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.2 S / 86.1 E
(TREIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SIX DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 110 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 09/10/2022 00 UTC: 14.5 S / 86.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SO: 250 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 0

24H: 09/10/2022 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 86.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SO: 295 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SO: 205 NO: 230

36H: 10/10/2022 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 86.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 285 SO: 345 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 195 NO: 165

48H: 10/10/2022 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 86.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 360 SO: 260 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SO: 0 NO: 0

60H: 11/10/2022 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 85.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 335 SO: 165 NO: 0

72H: 11/10/2022 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/10/2022 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
LA DERNIERE PASS SSMIS DE 1050UTC PERMET DE POSITIONNER LE CENTRE
SOUS LA BORDURE NORD-EST DE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE.
LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX RESTENT TRES FROIDS TRADUISANT DES CONDITIONS
PLUS FAVORABLES POUR UNE INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME. LES DERNIERES
IMAGES SATELLITES MONTRENT UN NET RENFORCEMENT DE LA CONVECTION
PROFONDE, CONFIRMANT L'INTENSIFICATION EN COURS.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT AU NIVEAU DE LA TRAJECTOIRE : LE SYSTEME CONSERVE
SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-SUS-EST, SOUMIS A UN FLUX DIRECTEUR DE
COMPOSANTE NORD-NORD-OUEST ENTRE UN COL BAROMETRIQUE AU SUD-OUEST DU
SYSTEME ET LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE SITUEE A L'EST.
LE SYSTEME VA POURSUIVRE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-SUD-EST UN PEU PLUS
RAPIDEMMENT JUSQU'A DIMANCHE MATIN.
PUIS A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE SOIR, UNE NOUVELLE CELLULE ANTICYCLONIQUE
SUBTROPICALE PRESENTE AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME TROPICAL DEVRAIT
GLISSER AU SUD-SUD-EST DU SYSTEME, ALORS QUE LA DORSALE A L'EST
DISPARAIT, ET DIRIGER LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME FRANCHEMENT EN
DIRECTION DE L'OUEST. IL EST A NOTER UNE INCERTITUDE ENCORE
IMPORTANTE SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT ET LE TIMING EXACT DE CE
VIRAGE VERS L'OUEST, A ECHEANCE DE 48H ET PLUS. CEPENDANT LA FORME
GLOBALE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE RESTE ASSEZ SEMBLABLE.

LES CONDITIONS ATMOSPHERIQUES AVEC NOTAMMENT LA BAISSE DU
CISAILLEMENT DE VENT (GRACE AU DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME VERS LE SUD)
OFFRENT AU SYSTEME UNE COURTE FENETRE D'INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'AU
STADE MAXIMUM DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24
HEURES. CETTE FENETRE FAVORABLE NE DEVRAIT CEPENDANT PAS DURER. EN
EFFET, DIMANCHE, A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, LE
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER ET INJECTER DE L'AIR
SEC AU DESSUS DU CENTRE DE CIRCULATION. EN PARALLELE, LE POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE DEVRAIT SE TARIR DEFINITIVEMENT. LE SYSTEME POURRAIT ALORS
PERDRE PROGRESSIVEMENT SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES EN FIN DE
WEEK-END POUR S'AFFAIBLIR PROGRESSIVEMENT EN MINIMUM RESIDUEL
TRANSITANT DANS LE FLUX DES ALIZES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 081217
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/2/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BALITA)

2.A POSITION 2022/10/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2 S / 86.1 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 110 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/10/09 00 UTC: 14.5 S / 86.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 0

24H: 2022/10/09 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 86.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SW: 295 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 230

36H: 2022/10/10 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 86.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 285 SW: 345 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 195 NW: 165

48H: 2022/10/10 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 86.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 360 SW: 260 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2022/10/11 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 85.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 335 SW: 165 NW: 0

72H: 2022/10/11 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/10/12 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE LAST SSMIS DATA OF 1050UTC SHOW THE CENTER UNDER THE EDGE OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION.
THE CLOUD TOPS REMAIN VERY COLD, REFLECTING MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE LAST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
A CLEAR STRENGTHENING OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, CONFIRMING THE
INTENSIFICATION GOING ON.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK : THE SYSTEM KEEPS ITS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT, SUBJECT TO A NORTH-NORTH-WEST COMPONENT STEERING FLOW
BETWEEN A BAROMETRIC COL AT THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED AT THE EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESSIVELY
TAKE A SLIGHTLY FASTER TRACK INTO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING.
THEN FROM SUNDAY EVENING, A NEW SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE CELL
LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD SLIDE TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, AS THE RIDGE WEAKEN IN THE ESAT, AND
DIRECT THE SYSTEM'S TRACK FRANKLY TOWARDS THE WEST. THERE IS STILL
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT AND THE EXACT
TIMING OF THIS TURN TO THE WEST, IN 48 HOURS AND MORE. HOWEVER THE
OVERALL SHAPE OF THE TRACK REMAINS QUITE SIMILAR.

THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WITH NOTABLY THE DECREASE OF THE WIND
SHEAR (THANKS TO THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE SOUTH)
OFFER TO THE SYSTEM A SHORT WINDOW OF INTENSIFICATION UNTIL THE
MAXIMUM STAGE OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS FAVORABLE WINDOW SHOULD NOT LAST HOWEVER. INDEED, ON SUNDAY,
AHEAD OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH, THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AND INJECT DRY AIR OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER. AT THE
SAME TIME, THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD DRY UP DEFINITIVELY. THE
SYSTEM COULD THEN PROGRESSIVELY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AT
THE END OF THE WEEKEND TO WEAKEN PROGRESSIVELY INTO A REMNANT LOW
TRANSITING IN THE TRADE WINDS FLOW.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 081207
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/10/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 08/10/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BALITA) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2 S / 86.1 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 40
NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/10/09 AT 00 UTC:
14.5 S / 86.5 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/10/09 AT 12 UTC:
15.8 S / 86.8 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 150 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 125 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 080710
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/2/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 2 (BALITA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 08/10/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.2 S / 85.6 E
(DOUZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 110 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 08/10/2022 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SO: 260 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 09/10/2022 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 86.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SO: 250 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 0

36H: 09/10/2022 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 86.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SO: 305 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 165 NO: 195

48H: 10/10/2022 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SO: 195 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 95 NO: 140

60H: 10/10/2022 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 85.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SO: 280 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 0 NO: 0

72H: 11/10/2022 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/10/2022 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
LA STRUCTURE NUAGEUSE CISAILLEE EVOLUE PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS UNE
STRUCTURE EN BANDE INCURVEE, VOIRE CDO, AVEC UN CENTRE ESTIME
LOCALISE SOUS LA BORDURE NORD-EST DE LA ZONE CONVECTIVE LA PLUS
MARQUEE (ASCAT B ET C DE 0330 ET 0430UTC). LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX
RESTENT ASSEZ FROIDS TRADUISANT DES CONDITIONS PLUS FAVORABLES POUR
UNE INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME. LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITES
MONTRENT UN NET RENFORCEMENT DE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE, CONFIRMANT
L'INTENSIFICATION NOTEE CETTE NUIT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT AU NIVEAU DE LA TRAJECTOIRE : LE SYSTEME CONSERVE
SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD, SOUMIS A UN FLUX DIRECTEUR DE COMPOSANTE
NORD-NORD-EST ENTRE UN COL BAROMETRIQUE AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME ET LA
DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE SITUEE A L'EST. LE SYSTEME VA
PROGRESSIVEMENT PRENDRE UNE DIRECTION VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST UN PEU PLUS
RAPIDE JUSQU'A DIMANCHE MATIN. PUIS A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE SOIR, UNE
NOUVELLE CELLULE ANTICYCLONIQUE SUBTROPICALE PRESENTE AU SUD-OUEST DU
SYSTEME TROPICAL DEVRAIT GLISSER AU SUD-SUD-EST DU SYSTEME ET DIRIGER
LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST. IL EST A NOTER UNE
INCERTITUDE ENCORE IMPORTANTE SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT ET LE
TIMING EXACT DE CE VIRAGE VERS L'OUEST, A ECHEANCE DE 48H ET PLUS.
CEPENDANT LA FORME GLOBALE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE RESTE ASSEZ SEMBLABLE.

LES CONDITIONS ATMOSPHERIQUES AVEC NOTAMMENT LA BAISSE DU
CISAILLEMENT DE VENT (GRACE AU DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME VERS LE SUD)
OFFRENT AU SYSTEME UNE COURTE FENETRE D'INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'AU
STADE MAXIMUM DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24
HEURES. CETTE FENETRE FAVORABLE NE DEVRAIT CEPENDANT PAS DURER. EN
EFFET, DIMANCHE, A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, LE
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER ET INJECTER DE L'AIR
SEC AU DESSUS DU CENTRE DE CIRCULATION. EN PARALLELE, LE POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE DEVRAIT SE TARIR DEFINITIVEMENT. LE SYSTEME POURRAIT ALORS
PERDRE PROGRESSIVEMENT SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES EN FIN DE
WEEK-END POUR S'AFFAIBLIR PROGRESSIVEMENT EN MINIMUM RESIDUEL
TRANSITANT DANS LE FLUX DES ALIZES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 080710
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/2/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BALITA)

2.A POSITION 2022/10/08 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.2 S / 85.6 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 110 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/10/08 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SW: 260 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2022/10/09 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 86.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 0

36H: 2022/10/09 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 86.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SW: 305 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 195

48H: 2022/10/10 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SW: 195 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 95 NW: 140

60H: 2022/10/10 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 85.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2022/10/11 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/10/12 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE SHEARED CLOUD STRUCTURE IS PROGRESSIVELY EVOLVING TOWARDS A
CURVED BAND PATTERN OR CDO, WITH AN ESTIMATED CENTER UNDER AT THE
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE MOST MARKED CONVECTIVE ZONE (ASCAT B AND C
OF 0330 AND 0430UTC). THE CLOUD TOPS REMAIN QUITE COLD, REFLECTING
MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE
LAST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A CLEAR STRENGTHENING OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION, CONFIRMING THE INTENSIFICATION NOTED LAST NIGHT

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK : THE SYSTEM KEEPS ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT,
SUBJECT TO A NORTH-NORTH-EAST COMPONENT STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A
BAROMETRIC COL AT THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED AT THE EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESSIVELY
TAKE A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION UNTIL SUNDAY
MORNING. THEN FROM SUNDAY EVENING, A NEW SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
CELL LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD SLIDE TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND DIRECT THE SYSTEM'S TRACK TOWARDS
THE WEST. THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SPEED OF
MOVEMENT AND THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS TURN TO THE WEST, IN 48 HOURS
AND MORE. HOWEVER THE OVERALL SHAPE OF THE TRACK REMAINS QUITE
SIMILAR.

THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WITH NOTABLY THE DECREASE OF THE WIND
SHEAR (THANKS TO THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE SOUTH)
OFFER TO THE SYSTEM A SHORT WINDOW OF INTENSIFICATION UNTIL THE
MAXIMUM STAGE OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS FAVORABLE WINDOW SHOULD NOT LAST HOWEVER. INDEED, ON SUNDAY,
AHEAD OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH, THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AND INJECT DRY AIR OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER. AT THE
SAME TIME, THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD DRY UP DEFINITIVELY. THE
SYSTEM COULD THEN PROGRESSIVELY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AT
THE END OF THE WEEKEND TO WEAKEN PROGRESSIVELY INTO A REMNANT LOW
TRANSITING IN THE TRADE WINDS FLOW.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 080629
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/10/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 08/10/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BALITA) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.2 S / 85.6 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, MAINLY IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CERCLE, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 40
NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/10/08 AT 18 UTC:
13.7 S / 86.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/10/09 AT 06 UTC:
14.9 S / 86.5 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 080012
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/2/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 2 (BALITA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 08/10/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.4 S / 84.9 E
(ONZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 999 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 08/10/2022 12 UTC: 13.2 S / 85.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 09/10/2022 00 UTC: 14.6 S / 85.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 305 SO: 230 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 0

36H: 09/10/2022 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 400 SO: 305 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 215 NO: 185

48H: 10/10/2022 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SO: 350 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 175 NO: 195

60H: 10/10/2022 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 84.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 285 SO: 230 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 110

72H: 11/10/2022 00 UTC: 15.5 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 250 SO: 220 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/10/2022 00 UTC: 15.0 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

LA STRUCTURE NUAGEUSE CISAILLEE EVOLUE PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS UNE
STRUCTURE EN BANDE INCURVEE, AVEC UN CENTRE ESTIME EN LIMITE NORD-EST
DE LA ZONE CONVECTIVE LA PLUS MARQUEE. LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX RESTENT
ASSEZ FROIDS TRADUISANT DES CONDITIONS PLUS FAVORABLES POUR UNE
INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME. LES DERNIERES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES DE
2204UTC MONTRENT ENCORE UNE CIRCULATION ASSEZ LARGE EN LIMITE
NORD-EST DE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE PRINCIPALE. A DEFAUT DE NOUVELLES
DONNES DIFFUSIOMETRIQUES, L'ANALYSE DVORAK PERMET UNE ESTIMATION
LEGEREMENT A LA HAUSSE PAR RAPPORT AU RESEAU PRECEDENT, AVEC UNE
BANDE INCURVEE ATTEIGNANT PLUS FRANCHEMENT LE DEMI-TOUR. LE SYSTEME
PASSE DONC LE SEUIL DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE AVEC DES VENTS
ESTIMES A 35KT PRINCIPALEMENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD ET A ETE
BAPTISE BALITA PAR LE SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE MAURICIEN A 22UTC.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT AU NIVEAU DE LA TRAJECTOIRE : LE SYSTEME CONSERVE
SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD, SOUMIS A UN FLUX DIRECTEUR DE COMPOSANTE
NORD-NORD-EST ENTRE UN COL BAROMETRIQUE AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME ET LA
DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE SITUEE A L'EST. LE SYSTEME VA
PROGRESSIVEMENT PRENDRE UNE DIRECTION VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST UN PEU PLUS
RAPIDE JUSQU'A DIMANCHE MATIN. PUIS A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE SOIR, UNE
NOUVELLE CELLULE ANTICYCLONIQUE SUBTROPICALE PRESENTE AU SUD-OUEST DU
SYSTEME TROPICAL DEVRAIT GLISSER AU SUD-SUD-EST DU SYSTEME ET DIRIGER
LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST. IL EST A NOTER UNE
INCERTITUDE ENCORE IMPORTANTE SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT ET LE
TIMING EXACT DE CE VIRAGE VERS L'OUEST, A ECHEANCE DE 48H ET PLUS.
CEPENDANT LA FORME GLOBALE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE RESTE ASSEZ SEMBLABLE.

LES CONDITIONS ATMOSPHERIQUES AVEC NOTAMMENT LA BAISSE DU
CISAILLEMENT DE VENT (GRACE AU DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME VERS LE SUD)
OFFRENT AU SYSTEME UNE COURTE FENETRE D'INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'AU
STADE MAXIMUM DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24
HEURES. CETTE FENETRE FAVORABLE NE DEVRAIT CEPENDANT PAS DURER. EN
EFFET, DIMANCHE, A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, LE
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER ET INJECTER DE L'AIR
SEC AU DESSUS DU CENTRE DE CIRCULATION. EN PARALLELE, LE POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE DEVRAIT SE TARIR DEFINITIVEMENT. LE SYSTEME POURRAIT ALORS
PERDRE PROGRESSIVEMENT SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES EN FIN DE
WEEK-END POUR S'AFFAIBLIR PROGRESSIVEMENT EN MINIMUM RESIDUEL
TRANSITANT DANS LE FLUX DES ALIZES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 080012
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/2/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BALITA)

2.A POSITION 2022/10/08 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.4 S / 84.9 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/10/08 12 UTC: 13.2 S / 85.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2022/10/09 00 UTC: 14.6 S / 85.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 305 SW: 230 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 0

36H: 2022/10/09 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 400 SW: 305 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 185

48H: 2022/10/10 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SW: 350 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 195

60H: 2022/10/10 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 84.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 110

72H: 2022/10/11 00 UTC: 15.5 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/10/12 00 UTC: 15.0 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

THE SHEARED CLOUD STRUCTURE IS PROGRESSIVELY EVOLVING TOWARDS A
CURVED BAND PATTERN, WITH AN ESTIMATED CENTER AT THE NORTHEASTERN
EDGE OF THE MOST MARKED CONVECTIVE ZONE. THE CLOUD TOPS REMAIN QUITE
COLD, REFLECTING MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR AN INTENSIFICATION OF
THE SYSTEM. THE LAST MICROWAVE DATA FROM 2204UTC STILL SHOW A FAIRLY
LARGE CIRCULATION AT THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. IN THE ABSENCE OF NEW DIFFUSIOMETRIC, THE DVORAK ANALYSIS
ALLOWS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER ESTIMATE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ANALYSIS,
WITH A CURVED BAND REACHING MORE CLEARLY THE HALF-TURN. THE SYSTEM
PASSES THE THRESHOLD OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM WITH WINDS ESTIMATED
AT 35KT MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND HAS BEEN NAMED BALITA
BY THE MAURITIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE AT 22UTC.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK : THE SYSTEM KEEPS ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT,
SUBJECT TO A NORTH-NORTH-EAST COMPONENT STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A
BAROMETRIC COL AT THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED AT THE EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESSIVELY
TAKE A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION UNTIL SUNDAY
MORNING. THEN FROM SUNDAY EVENING, A NEW SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
CELL LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD SLIDE TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND DIRECT THE SYSTEM'S TRACK TOWARDS
THE WEST. THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SPEED OF
MOVEMENT AND THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS TURN TO THE WEST, IN 48 HOURS
AND MORE. HOWEVER THE OVERALL SHAPE OF THE TRACK REMAINS QUITE
SIMILAR.

THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WITH NOTABLY THE DECREASE OF THE WIND
SHEAR (THANKS TO THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE SOUTH)
OFFER TO THE SYSTEM A SHORT WINDOW OF INTENSIFICATION UNTIL THE
MAXIMUM STAGE OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS FAVORABLE WINDOW SHOULD NOT LAST HOWEVER. INDEED, ON SUNDAY,
AHEAD OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH, THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AND INJECT DRY AIR OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER. AT THE
SAME TIME, THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD DRY UP DEFINITIVELY. THE
SYSTEM COULD THEN PROGRESSIVELY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AT
THE END OF THE WEEKEND TO WEAKEN PROGRESSIVELY INTO A REMNANT LOW
TRANSITING IN THE TRADE WINDS FLOW.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 080000
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/10/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 08/10/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BALITA) 999 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.4 S / 84.9 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 220 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 340 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 50
NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/10/08 AT 12 UTC:
13.2 S / 85.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/10/09 AT 00 UTC:
14.6 S / 85.8 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>