Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FABIEN-23
in British Indian Ocean Territory

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 212100
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 230521205527
2023052118 19S FABIEN 027 01 180 01 SATL 060
T000 111S 0689E 025
T012 118S 0690E 025
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 027
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 11.1S 68.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 68.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 11.8S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 68.9E.
21MAY23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 321
NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 19S FABIEN HAS RUN ITS COURSE, OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AS
INDICATED ON THE ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR). THE MOST
RECENT 211724Z METOP-C ASCAT INDICATED A TIGHTLY WRAPPED 20 KNOT
SYSTEM, WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF 25 KNOT FLAGS IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT NEAR THE ONLY SEMBLANCE OF CONVECTION. THE MOST RECENT
211720 METOP-C AMSU-B IMAGE REVEALED NO CONVECTION AROUND THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM WAS UNDERGOING AN
ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF 25-30 KNOTS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH
ERODED THE SMALL SYSTEMS INTEGRITY. FLARING CONVECTION NEAR
THE LLC WILL CONTINUE TO WAX AND WANE DIRUNALLY AS THE REMNANTS
OF TC 19S MIGRATES TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 14 FEET.//
1923051206 22S 896E 15
1923051212 24S 886E 15
1923051218 26S 876E 20
1923051300 28S 865E 25
1923051306 28S 856E 25
1923051312 33S 850E 30
1923051318 40S 842E 30
1923051400 43S 833E 35
1923051406 46S 822E 40
1923051412 47S 811E 50
1923051412 47S 811E 50
1923051418 50S 803E 60
1923051418 50S 803E 60
1923051500 51S 794E 65
1923051500 51S 794E 65
1923051500 51S 794E 65
1923051506 54S 784E 75
1923051506 54S 784E 75
1923051506 54S 784E 75
1923051512 55S 775E 85
1923051512 55S 775E 85
1923051512 55S 775E 85
1923051518 59S 767E 90
1923051518 59S 767E 90
1923051518 59S 767E 90
1923051600 62S 761E 90
1923051600 62S 761E 90
1923051600 62S 761E 90
1923051606 67S 755E 95
1923051606 67S 755E 95
1923051606 67S 755E 95
1923051612 73S 751E 100
1923051612 73S 751E 100
1923051612 73S 751E 100
1923051618 79S 745E 100
1923051618 79S 745E 100
1923051618 79S 745E 100
1923051700 84S 741E 95
1923051700 84S 741E 95
1923051700 84S 741E 95
1923051706 88S 738E 90
1923051706 88S 738E 90
1923051706 88S 738E 90
1923051712 90S 734E 80
1923051712 90S 734E 80
1923051712 90S 734E 80
1923051718 90S 731E 65
1923051718 90S 731E 65
1923051718 90S 731E 65
1923051800 89S 725E 60
1923051800 89S 725E 60
1923051806 89S 720E 50
1923051806 89S 720E 50
1923051812 92S 717E 45
1923051818 94S 710E 45
1923051900 95S 703E 40
1923051906 99S 700E 45
1923051912 101S 698E 45
1923051918 101S 696E 45
1923052000 101S 694E 50
1923052006 100S 693E 50
1923052006 100S 693E 50
1923052012 101S 692E 50
1923052012 101S 692E 50
1923052018 102S 692E 40
1923052100 104S 690E 35
1923052106 107S 689E 35
1923052112 110S 689E 35
1923052118 111S 689E 25
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 11.1S 68.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 68.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 11.8S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 68.9E.
21MAY23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 321
NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 19S FABIEN HAS RUN ITS COURSE, OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AS
INDICATED ON THE ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR). THE MOST
RECENT 211724Z METOP-C ASCAT INDICATED A TIGHTLY WRAPPED 20 KNOT
SYSTEM, WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF 25 KNOT FLAGS IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT NEAR THE ONLY SEMBLANCE OF CONVECTION. THE MOST RECENT
211720 METOP-C AMSU-B IMAGE REVEALED NO CONVECTION AROUND THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM WAS UNDERGOING AN
ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF 25-30 KNOTS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH
ERODED THE SMALL SYSTEMS INTEGRITY. FLARING CONVECTION NEAR
THE LLC WILL CONTINUE TO WAX AND WANE DIURNALLY AS THE REMNANTS
OF TC 19S MIGRATES TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 14 FEET.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 211211
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 34/10/20222023
1.A DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 21/05/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.2 S / 68.6 E
(ONZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE HUIT DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 205 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 95 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 22/05/2023 00 UTC: 12.4 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 85

24H: 22/05/2023 12 UTC: 13.7 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

36H: 23/05/2023 00 UTC: 14.5 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

48H: 23/05/2023 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

60H: 24/05/2023 00 UTC: 15.4 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

72H: 24/05/2023 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
LA CONVECTION PROFONDE QUI AVAIT REPRIS DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST
EN JOURNEE EST EN TRAIN DE SE RECHAUFFER, ET DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU
DISPARAITRE EN FIN DE JOURNEE. LA CIRCULATION SE DEVINE SOUS LES
CIRRUS AU SUD-EST DE CELLE-CI. LE CENTRE EST DIFFICILE A POSITIONNER
SUR L'IMAGERIE SATELLITE EN L'ABSENCE D'AUTRES DONNEES.
EN L'ABSENCE DE DONNEES FIABLES DEPUIS LE DERNIER RESEAU, LES VENTS
MAXI SONT ESTIMES A 35KT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST.

FABIEN POURSUIT SON LENT DEPLACEMENT GLOBALEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST,
AVEC UN FLUX DIRECTEUR PILOTE PAR UNE DORSALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME,
INDUISANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE DEVENANT PLUS MERIDIENNE LA NUIT PROCHAINE.
A PARTIR DE MARDI, AVEC UN ABAISSEMENT ATTENDU DU NIVEAU DU FLUX
DIRECTEUR, LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT DE NOUVEAU S'ORIENTER DURABLEMENT
VERS LE SUD-OUEST. MEME SI LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE FAIT
CONSENSUS, LA DISPERSION RESTE ENCORE ASSEZ FORTE AU SEIN DES
PREVISIONS ENSEMBLISTES ET DETERMINSISTES. IFS NOTAMMENT PROPOSE UN
DEPLACEMENT PLUS RAPIDE ET DONC UNE POSITION NETTEMENT PLUS SUD. LA
PRESENTE PREVISION EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES PRINCIPAUX MODELES,
NOTAMMENT ENTRE IFS ET GFS.

D'ICI LUNDI SOIR, LE CISAILLEMENT DE SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU SE
RENFORCER ET CONDUIRE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT FINAL DE FABIEN. EN EFFET
DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT TRES SEC ET AVEC UN FAIBLE CONVERGENCE DE
SURFACE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE COMBLER PROGRESSIVEMENT.

CECI EST LE DERNIER BULLETIN CONCERNANT LE SYSTEME FABIEN SAUF
REINTENSIFICATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 211211
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/10/20222023
1.A FILLING UP 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION 2023/05/21 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.2 S / 68.6 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 95 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/05/22 00 UTC: 12.4 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 85

24H: 2023/05/22 12 UTC: 13.7 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

36H: 2023/05/23 00 UTC: 14.5 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

48H: 2023/05/23 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

60H: 2023/05/24 00 UTC: 15.4 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

72H: 2023/05/24 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAD RESUMED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT DURING
THE DAY IS WARMING UP, AND SHOULD DISAPPEAR AGAIN AT THE END OF THE
DAY. THE CIRCULATION CAN BE SEEN UNDER THE CIRRUS CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTH-EAST OF IT. THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY IN THE ABSENCE OF OTHER DATA.
IN THE ABSENCE OF RELIABLE DATA SINCE THE LAST NETWORK, THE MAXIMUM
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 35KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.

FABIEN IS CONTINUING ITS SLOW MOVEMENT GLOBALLY TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST, WITH A STEERING FLOW DRIVEN BY A RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM,
INDUCING A MORE MERIDIAN TRAJECTORY NEXT NIGHT.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, WITH AN EXPECTED LOWERING OF THE LEVEL OF THE
STEERING FLOW, THE TRAJECTORY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE ORIENTED TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST. EVEN IF THERE IS A CONSENSUS ON THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE
TRAJECTORY, THERE IS STILL QUITE A LOT OF DISPERSION WITHIN THE
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS. IFS IN PARTICULAR PROPOSES A
FASTER DISPLACEMENT AND THEREFORE A MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY POSITION. THE
PRESENT FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MAIN MODELS, ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN IFS AND GFS.

BY MONDAY EVENING, THE SOUTH-WESTERN SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN AGAIN
AND LEAD TO THE FINAL WEAKENING OF FABIEN. INDEED IN A VERY DRY
ENVIRONMENT AND WITH A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
FILL UP GRADUALLY.
THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ABOUT THE SYSTEM FABIEN EXCEPT
REINTENSIFICATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 211154
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/05/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 034/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 21/05/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: FILLING UP 10 (FABIEN) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.2 S / 68.6 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER IN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 50
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 105 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/05/22 AT 00 UTC:
12.4 S / 68.5 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 45 NM

24H, VALID 2023/05/22 AT 12 UTC:
13.7 S / 68.5 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING ABOUT THE SYSTEM EXCEPT REINTENSIFICATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 210900
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 230521063731
2023052106 19S FABIEN 026 01 200 03 SATL SYNP 035
T000 107S 0689E 035 R034 050 NE QD 095 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 114S 0689E 035 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 123S 0688E 035 R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD
T036 131S 0689E 035 R034 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD
T048 136S 0689E 035 R034 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 144S 0669E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 026
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 10.7S 68.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 68.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 11.4S 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 12.3S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 13.1S 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 13.6S 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 14.4S 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 10.9S 68.9E.
21MAY23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 304
NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052106Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
212100Z AND 220900Z.
//
1923051206 22S 896E 15
1923051212 24S 886E 15
1923051218 26S 876E 20
1923051300 28S 865E 25
1923051306 28S 856E 25
1923051312 33S 850E 30
1923051318 40S 842E 30
1923051400 43S 833E 35
1923051406 46S 822E 40
1923051412 47S 811E 50
1923051412 47S 811E 50
1923051418 50S 803E 60
1923051418 50S 803E 60
1923051500 51S 794E 65
1923051500 51S 794E 65
1923051500 51S 794E 65
1923051506 54S 784E 75
1923051506 54S 784E 75
1923051506 54S 784E 75
1923051512 55S 775E 85
1923051512 55S 775E 85
1923051512 55S 775E 85
1923051518 59S 767E 90
1923051518 59S 767E 90
1923051518 59S 767E 90
1923051600 62S 761E 90
1923051600 62S 761E 90
1923051600 62S 761E 90
1923051606 67S 755E 95
1923051606 67S 755E 95
1923051606 67S 755E 95
1923051612 73S 751E 100
1923051612 73S 751E 100
1923051612 73S 751E 100
1923051618 79S 745E 100
1923051618 79S 745E 100
1923051618 79S 745E 100
1923051700 84S 741E 95
1923051700 84S 741E 95
1923051700 84S 741E 95
1923051706 88S 738E 90
1923051706 88S 738E 90
1923051706 88S 738E 90
1923051712 90S 734E 80
1923051712 90S 734E 80
1923051712 90S 734E 80
1923051718 90S 731E 65
1923051718 90S 731E 65
1923051718 90S 731E 65
1923051800 89S 725E 60
1923051800 89S 725E 60
1923051806 89S 720E 50
1923051806 89S 720E 50
1923051812 92S 717E 45
1923051818 94S 710E 45
1923051900 95S 703E 40
1923051906 99S 700E 45
1923051912 101S 698E 45
1923051918 101S 696E 45
1923052000 101S 694E 50
1923052006 100S 693E 50
1923052006 100S 693E 50
1923052012 101S 692E 50
1923052012 101S 692E 50
1923052018 102S 692E 40
1923052100 104S 690E 35
1923052106 107S 689E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 10.7S 68.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 68.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 11.4S 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 12.3S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 13.1S 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 13.6S 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 14.4S 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 10.9S 68.9E.
21MAY23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 304
NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023052106Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z
IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND 220900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 210624
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 33/10/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 21/05/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.0 S / 68.7 E
(ONZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE HUIT DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 999 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SO: 215 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 21/05/2023 18 UTC: 12.0 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SO: 120 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 22/05/2023 06 UTC: 13.3 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SO: 130 NO: 0

36H: 22/05/2023 18 UTC: 14.2 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

48H: 23/05/2023 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SO: 205 NO: 100

60H: 23/05/2023 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

72H: 24/05/2023 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 25/05/2023 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
LA CONVECTION PROFONDE A REPRIS DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST DE LA
CIRCULATION DEPUIS 21Z SANS TOUTEFOIS MONTRER DES SIGNES DE COURBURE
PARTICULIER. LES POUSSES CONVECTIVES SEMBLENT PLUS PERSISTANTES
DEPUIS LES TROIS DERNIERES HEURES.
EN L'ABSENCE DE DONNEES FIABLES DEPUIS LE DERNIER RESEAU, L'INTENSITE
EST MAINTENU A 40KT.

FABIEN POURSUIT SON LENT DEPLACEMENT GLOBALEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST,
AVEC UN FLUX DIRECTEUR PILOTE PAR UNE DORSALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME,
INDUISANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE MERIDIENNE POUR CE WEEK-END. A PARTIR DE
MARDI, AVEC UN ABAISSEMENT ATTENDU DU NIVEAU DU FLUX DIRECTEUR, LA
TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT DE NOUVEAU S'ORIENTER DURABLEMENT VERS LE
SUD-OUEST. MEME SI LA PHILISOPHIE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE FAIT CONSENSUS,
LA DISPERSION RESTE ENCORE ASSEZ FORTE AU SEIN DES PREVISIONS
ENSEMBLISTES ET DETERMINSISTES. IFS NOTAMMENT PROPOSE UN DEPLACEMENT
PLUS RAPIDE ET DONC UNE POSITION NETTEMENT PLUS SUD. LA PRESENTE
PREVISION EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES PRINCIPAUX MODELES, NOTAMMENT
ENTRE IFS ET GFS.

DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES, A LA FAVEUR D'UNE BAISSE ATTENDUE DU
CISAILLEMENT, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE POURRAIT SE MAINTENIR ET LIMITER
UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE. CEPENDANT D'ICI LUNDI SOIR, LE
CISAILLEMENT DE SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU SE RENFORCER ET CONDUIRE
A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT FINAL DE FABIEN. EN EFFET DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT
TRES SEC ET AVEC UN FAIBLE CONVERGENCE DE SURFACE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
SE COMBLER PROGRESSIVEMENT. DES VARIATIONS D'INTENSITE PLUS MARQUEES
NE SONT PAS EXCLUES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 210624
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 33/10/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION 2023/05/21 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.0 S / 68.7 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/05/21 18 UTC: 12.0 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 120 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2023/05/22 06 UTC: 13.3 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 0

36H: 2023/05/22 18 UTC: 14.2 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

48H: 2023/05/23 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 100

60H: 2023/05/23 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2023/05/24 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/05/25 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DEEP CONVECTION HAS RESUMED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
CIRCULATION SINCE 21Z WITHOUT SHOWING ANY PARTICULAR SIGNS OF
CURVATURE. THE CONVECTIVE THRUSTS SEEM TO BE MORE PERSISTENT SINCE
THE LAST THREE HOURS.
IN THE ABSENCE OF RELIABLE DATA SINCE THE LAST NETWORK, THE INTENSITY
IS MAINTAINED AT 40KT.

FABIEN CONTINUES ITS SLOW MOVEMENT GLOBALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST,
WITH A STEERING FLOW DRIVEN BY A RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, INDUCING A
MERIDIAN TRAJECTORY FOR THIS WEEKEND. FROM TUESDAY, WITH AN EXPECTED
LOWERING OF THE STEERING FLOW LEVEL, THE TRAJECTORY SHOULD AGAIN BE
PERMANENTLY ORIENTED TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST. EVEN IF THERE IS A
CONSENSUS ON THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE TRAJECTORY, THERE IS STILL QUITE A
LOT OF DISPERSION AMONG THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS. IFS
IN PARTICULAR PROPOSES A FASTER DISPLACEMENT AND THEREFORE A MUCH
MORE SOUTHERLY POSITION. THE PRESENT FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE MAIN MODELS, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN IFS AND GFS.

IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THANKS TO AN EXPECTED DECREASE IN SHEAR,
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE AND LIMIT A RAPID WEAKENING.
HOWEVER, BY MONDAY EVENING, THE SOUTH-WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND LEAD TO THE FINAL WEAKENING OF FABIEN. INDEED IN
A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT AND WITH A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD FILL PROGRESSIVELY. MORE MARKED VARIATIONS OF INTENSITY
ARE NOT EXCLUDED.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 210611
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/05/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 033/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 21/05/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FABIEN) 999 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.0 S / 68.7 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 180 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/05/21 AT 18 UTC:
12.0 S / 68.5 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2023/05/22 AT 06 UTC:
13.3 S / 68.3 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 210112
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 32/10/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 21/05/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.0 S / 68.8 E
(ONZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SO: 215 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 21/05/2023 12 UTC: 11.7 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 65

24H: 22/05/2023 00 UTC: 12.9 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 120 NO: 95

36H: 22/05/2023 12 UTC: 13.8 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

48H: 23/05/2023 00 UTC: 14.7 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 0 NO: 0

60H: 23/05/2023 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 195 NO: 0

72H: 24/05/2023 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 25/05/2023 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
LA CONVECTION PROFONDE A REPRIS DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST DE LA
CIRCULATION DEPUIS 21Z SANS TOUTEFOIS MONTRER DES SIGNES DE COURBURE
PARTICULIER. LES POUSSES CONVECTIVES RESTENT ISOLEES POUR L'INSTANT.
LA CIRCULATION DE SURFACE RESTE PARTIELLEMENT EXPOSEE. EN L'ABSENCE
DE DONNEES FIABLES DEPUIS LE DERNIER RESEAU, L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENU
A 40KT.

FABIEN POURSUIT SON LENT DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD, AVEC UN FLUX
DIRECTEUR PILOTE PAR UNE DORSALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME, INDUISANT UNE
TRAJECTOIRE MERIDIENNE POUR CE WEEK-END. A PARTIR DE MARDI, AVEC UN
ABAISSEMENT ATTENDU DU NIVEAU DU FLUX DIRECTEUR, LA TRAJECTOIRE
DEVRAIT DE NOUVEAU S'ORIENTER DURABLEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST. MEME SI
LA PHILISOPHIE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE FAIT CONSENSUS, LA DISPERSION RESTE
ENCORE ASSEZ FORTE AU SEIN DES PREVISIONS ENSEMBLISTES ET
DETERMINSISTES. IFS NOTAMMENT PROPOSE UN DEPLACEMENT PLUS RAPIDE ET
DONC PLUS SUD. LA PRESENTE PREVISION EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES
PRINCIPAUX MODELES, NOTAMMENT ENTRE IFS ET GFS, PROCHE DE LA MOYENNE
DE L'EPS 12Z

DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES, A LA FAVEUR D'UNE BAISSE ATTENDUE DU
CISAILLEMENT, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE POURRAIT SE MAINTENIR ET LIMITER
UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE. CEPENDANT D'ICI LUNDI SOIR, LE
CISAILLEMENT DE SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU SE RENFORCER ET CONDUIRE
A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT FINAL DE FABIEN. EN EFFET DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT
TRES SEC ET AVEC UN FAIBLE CONVERGENCE DE SURFACE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
SE COMBLER PROGRESSIVEMENT. DES VARIATIONS D'INTENSITE PLUS MARQUEES
NE SONT PAS EXCLUES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 210112
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/10/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION 2023/05/21 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.0 S / 68.8 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/05/21 12 UTC: 11.7 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 65

24H: 2023/05/22 00 UTC: 12.9 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 95

36H: 2023/05/22 12 UTC: 13.8 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

48H: 2023/05/23 00 UTC: 14.7 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2023/05/23 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 195 NW: 0

72H: 2023/05/24 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/05/25 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DEEP CONVECTION HAS RESUMED SINCE 21Z IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT,
HOWEVER IT DO NOT SHOW SIGNIFICANT CURVATURE FOR NOW. CONVECTIVE
BURSTS REMAINED RATHER ISOLATED. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL
PARTIALLY EXPOSED. DUE TO THE LACK OF RELIABLE DATE SINCE 18Z,
INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 40KT.

FABIEN CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD, DRIVEN BY A RIDGE TO THE
EAST, LEADING TO A MERIDIAN TRACK OVER THE WEEKEND. FROM TUESDAY,
WITH AN EXPECTED LOWERING OF THE STEERING FLOW LEVEL, THE TRACK
SHOULD TURN LASTINGLY SOUTH-WESTWARD AGAIN. EVEN IF THERE IS A
CONSENSUS ON THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY, THERE IS STILL A STRONG SPREAD
AMONG THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS. IFS IN PARTICULAR
SUGGESTS A FASTER AND THEREFORE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. THE PRESENT
FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MAIN MODELS, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
IFS AND GFS, CLOSE TO THE MEAN OF THE 12Z EPS.

IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THANKS TO AN EXPECTED DECREASE IN SHEAR,
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD MAINTAIN AND PREVENT A QUICKER WEAKENING.
HOWEVER, BY MONDAY EVENING, THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN
AGAIN AND LEAD TO THE FINAL WEAKENING OF FABIEN. INDEED IN A VERY DRY
ENVIRONMENT AND WITH A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
FILL UP GRADUALLY. STRONGER INTENSITY VARIATIONS ARE NOT EXCLUDED.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 210042
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/05/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 032/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 21/05/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FABIEN) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.0 S / 68.8 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 170 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/05/21 AT 12 UTC:
11.7 S / 68.9 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2023/05/22 AT 00 UTC:
12.9 S / 68.7 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 50 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 202100
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 230520194029
2023052018 19S FABIEN 025 01 180 01 SATL 040
T000 102S 0692E 040 R034 055 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 107S 0693E 040 R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 115S 0692E 035 R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 123S 0690E 035 R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 131S 0689E 035 R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD
T072 136S 0682E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 025
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 10.2S 69.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 69.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 10.7S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 11.5S 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 12.3S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 13.1S 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 13.6S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 69.2E.
20MAY23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270
NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052018Z
IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 17
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z AND 212100Z.//
1923051206 22S 896E 15
1923051212 24S 886E 15
1923051218 26S 876E 20
1923051300 28S 865E 25
1923051306 28S 856E 25
1923051312 33S 850E 30
1923051318 40S 842E 30
1923051400 43S 833E 35
1923051406 46S 822E 40
1923051412 47S 811E 50
1923051412 47S 811E 50
1923051418 50S 803E 60
1923051418 50S 803E 60
1923051500 51S 794E 65
1923051500 51S 794E 65
1923051500 51S 794E 65
1923051506 54S 784E 75
1923051506 54S 784E 75
1923051506 54S 784E 75
1923051512 55S 775E 85
1923051512 55S 775E 85
1923051512 55S 775E 85
1923051518 59S 767E 90
1923051518 59S 767E 90
1923051518 59S 767E 90
1923051600 62S 761E 90
1923051600 62S 761E 90
1923051600 62S 761E 90
1923051606 67S 755E 95
1923051606 67S 755E 95
1923051606 67S 755E 95
1923051612 73S 751E 100
1923051612 73S 751E 100
1923051612 73S 751E 100
1923051618 79S 745E 100
1923051618 79S 745E 100
1923051618 79S 745E 100
1923051700 84S 741E 95
1923051700 84S 741E 95
1923051700 84S 741E 95
1923051706 88S 738E 90
1923051706 88S 738E 90
1923051706 88S 738E 90
1923051712 90S 734E 80
1923051712 90S 734E 80
1923051712 90S 734E 80
1923051718 90S 731E 65
1923051718 90S 731E 65
1923051718 90S 731E 65
1923051800 89S 725E 60
1923051800 89S 725E 60
1923051806 89S 720E 50
1923051806 89S 720E 50
1923051812 92S 717E 45
1923051818 94S 710E 45
1923051900 95S 703E 40
1923051906 99S 700E 45
1923051912 101S 698E 45
1923051918 101S 696E 45
1923052000 101S 694E 50
1923052006 100S 693E 50
1923052006 100S 693E 50
1923052012 101S 692E 50
1923052012 101S 692E 50
1923052018 102S 692E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 10.2S 69.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 69.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 10.7S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 11.5S 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 12.3S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 13.1S 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 13.6S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 69.2E.
20MAY23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270
NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS
17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z AND 212100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 201833
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 31/10/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 20/05/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.8 S / 69.2 E
(DIX DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE NEUF DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SO: 215 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 21/05/2023 06 UTC: 11.6 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 65

24H: 21/05/2023 18 UTC: 12.4 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 65

36H: 22/05/2023 06 UTC: 13.2 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 0 NO: 0

48H: 22/05/2023 18 UTC: 14.0 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 0

60H: 23/05/2023 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 0

72H: 23/05/2023 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 24/05/2023 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
LA CONVECTION PROFONDE ENCORE PRESENTE A 12Z DANS LE QUADRANT
SUD-OUEST S'EST DEPUIS TOTALEMENT EFFONDREE PROCHE DU CENTRE. LA
CIRCULATION DE SURFACE APPARAIT DESORMAIS EN GRANDE PARTIE EXPOSEE.
CETTE EVOLUTION EST PROBABLEMENT DUE A UNE INTRUSION SECHE FAVORISEE
PAR LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR SUD-OUEST. UNE PASSE SAR RCM3 DE 1354Z
DONNE DES ESTIMATIONS DE VENT AUTOUR DE 40-45KT. AU VU DE L'EVOLUTION
RECENTE, L'INTENSITE EST ABAISSEE A 40KT.

FABIEN POURSUIT SON LENT DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD, AVEC UN FLUX
DIRECTEUR PILOTE PAR UNE DORSALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME, INDUISANT UNE
TRAJECTOIRE MERIDIENNE POUR CE WEEK-END. A PARTIR DE MARDI, AVEC UN
ABAISSEMENT ATTENDU DU NIVEAU DU FLUX DIRECTEUR, LA TRAJECTOIRE
DEVRAIT DE NOUVEAU S'ORIENTER VERS LE SUD-OUEST. MEME SI LA
PHILISOPHIE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE FAIT CONSENSUS, LA DISPERSION RESTE
ENCORE ASSEZ FORTE AU SEIN DES PREVISIONS ENSEMBLISTES ET
DETERMINSISTES. IFS NOTAMMENT PROPOSE UN DEPLACEMENT PLUS RAPIDE ET
DONC PLUS SUD. LA PRESENTE PREVISION EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES
PRINCIPAUX MODELES, NOTAMMENT ENTRE IFS ET GFS.

DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES, A LA FAVEUR D'UNE BAISSE ATTENDUE DU
CISAILLEMENT, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE DEVRAIT REPRENDRE ET LIMITER UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS MARQUE. CEPENDANT D'ICI LUNDI SOIR, LE
CISAILLEMENT DE SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU SE RENFORCER ET CONDUIRE
A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT FINAL DE FABIEN. EN EFFET DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT
TRES SEC ET AVEC UN FAIBLE CONVERGENCE DE SURFACE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
SE COMBLER PROGRESSIVEMENT. DES VARIATIONS D'INTENSITE PLUS MARQUEES
NE SONT PAS EXCLUES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 201833
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/10/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION 2023/05/20 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8 S / 69.2 E
(TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/05/21 06 UTC: 11.6 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 65

24H: 2023/05/21 18 UTC: 12.4 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65

36H: 2023/05/22 06 UTC: 13.2 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2023/05/22 18 UTC: 14.0 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 0

60H: 2023/05/23 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 0

72H: 2023/05/23 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/05/24 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS STILL PRESENT AT 12Z IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT HAS SINCE TOTALLY COLLAPSED NEAR THE CENTER. THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION NOW APPEARS LARGELY EXPOSED. THIS EVOLUTION IS PROBABLY
DUE TO A DRY INTRUSION FAVORED BY THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. A 1354Z
RCM3 SAR PASS GIVES WIND ESTIMATES AROUND 40-45KT. IN VIEW OF THE
RECENT EVOLUTION, THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40KT.

FABIEN CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD, DRIVEN BY A RIDGE TO THE
EAST, LEADING TO A MERIDIAN TRACK OVER THE WEEKEND. FROM TUESDAY,
WITH AN EXPECTED LOWERING OF THE STEERING FLOW LEVEL, THE TRACK
SHOULD TURN SOUTH-WESTWARD AGAIN. EVEN IF THERE IS A CONSENSUS ON THE
TRACK PHILOSOPHY, THERE IS STILL A STRONG SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE
AND DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS. IFS IN PARTICULAR SUGGESTS A FASTER AND
THEREFORE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. THE PRESENT FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE MAIN MODELS, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN IFS AND GFS.

IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THANKS TO AN EXPECTED DECREASE IN SHEAR,
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD RESUME AND MITIGATE A STRONGER WEAKENING.
HOWEVER, BY MONDAY EVENING, THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN
AGAIN AND LEAD TO THE FINAL WEAKENING OF FABIEN. INDEED IN A VERY DRY
ENVIRONMENT AND WITH A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
FILL UP GRADUALLY. STRONGER INTENSITY VARIATIONS ARE NOT EXCLUDED.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 201815
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/05/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 031/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 20/05/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FABIEN) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8 S / 69.2 E
(TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/05/21 AT 06 UTC:
11.6 S / 69.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2023/05/21 AT 18 UTC:
12.4 S / 69.0 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 201228
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 30/10/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 20/05/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.6 S / 69.3 E
(DIX DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE NEUF DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SO: 220 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 21/05/2023 00 UTC: 11.3 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SO: 185 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 75

24H: 21/05/2023 12 UTC: 11.8 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SO: 175 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 75

36H: 22/05/2023 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 215 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SO: 95 NO: 0

48H: 22/05/2023 12 UTC: 13.2 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 0

60H: 23/05/2023 00 UTC: 13.8 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
PERTURBATION TROPICALE

72H: 23/05/2023 12 UTC: 14.1 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
PERTURBATION TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 24/05/2023 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

120H: 25/05/2023 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 64.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0- CI=3.5-

DURANT LES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA PRESENTATION NUAGEUSE S'EST
DEGRADEE.
LA CONVECTION S'EST PROGRESSIVEMENT ORGANISEE EN CDO IRREGULIER, DE
PUISSANTS BURSTS DE CONVECION PERSISTENT AU NIVEAU DU CENTRE. LES
DERNIERES DONNEES OBJECTIVES (GCOM DE 0919Z ET SSMIS DE 1110Z)
CONFIRMENT L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME ET LA DISYMETRIE DE LA
CIRCULATION LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS N'ETANT PLUS PRESENTS QUE DANS
LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-OUEST. FABIEN A ETE DECLASSE TEMPETE TRAPIVCALE
MODEREE.

FABIEN A BIEN NEGOCIE UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD LA NUIT DERNIERE, AVEC UN
FLUX DIRECTEUR PILOTE PAR UNE DORSALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME, INDUISANT
UNE TRAJECTOIRE MERIDIENNE POUR CE WEEK-END. A PARTIR DE MARDI, AVEC
UN ABAISSEMENT ATTENDU DU NIVEAU DU FLUX DIRECTEUR, LA TRAJECTOIRE
DEVRAIT DE NOUVEAU S'ORIENTER VERS L'OUEST. LA DISPERSION, BIEN
QU'ENCORE ASSEZ FORTE SUR LES PREVISIONS ENSEMBLISTES, TEND A SE
REDUIRE SUR LES MODELES DETERMINISTES LES PLUS FIABLES, ET EST
PRINCIPALEMENT DU A UNE AUGMENTATION DE LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT
VERS LE SUD DE LA PREVISIO D'IFS, POUR LEQUEL LA DORSALE DASNL'EST DU
SYSTEME EST PLUS PUISSANTE ET INDUIT UN FLUX DIRECTEUR PLUS RAPIDE.
LA PRESENTE PREVISION EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE IFS ET GFS.

L'INTENSITE DEVRAIT LEGEREMENT S'ATTENUER CES PROCHAINES 24 A 36H. LE
SYSTEME BENEFICIE D'UN ASSEZ BON POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE MALGRE SON
DEPLACEMENT LENT QUE COMPENSE UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, MAIS
LA PRESENCE D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE VENT MODERE CONTRIBUE A UN LENT
AFFAIBLISSEMENT.
EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LE RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT N
MOYENNE TROPOPAUSE COUPLE A UNE INTRUSION DE L'AIR SEC PRESENT DANS
L'OUEST DU SYSTEME, DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEFINITIF DE
FABIEN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 201228
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/10/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION 2023/05/20 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.6 S / 69.3 E
(TEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/05/21 00 UTC: 11.3 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 75

24H: 2023/05/21 12 UTC: 11.8 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 75

36H: 2023/05/22 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 215 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SW: 95 NW: 0

48H: 2023/05/22 12 UTC: 13.2 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 0

60H: 2023/05/23 00 UTC: 13.8 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

72H: 2023/05/23 12 UTC: 14.1 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/05/24 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

120H: 2023/05/25 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 64.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0- CI=3.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED.
THE CONVECTION HAS PROGRESSIVELY ORGANIZED IN IRREGULAR CDO, STRONG
CONVECTION BURSTS PERSIST IN THE CENTER. THE LAST OBJECTIVE DATA
(GCOM OF 0919Z AND SSMIS OF 1110Z) CONFIRM THE WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM AND THE DISYMMETRY OF THE CIRCULATION, THE STRONGEST WINDS
BEING PRESENT ONLY IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. FABIEN HAS BEEN
DECLARED A MODERATE TRAPPED STORM.

FABIEN HAS WELL NEGOTIATED A TURN TO THE SOUTH LAST NIGHT, WITH A
STEERING FLOW DRIVEN BY A RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, INDUCING A
MERIDIAN TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND. FROM TUESDAY, WITH AN EXPECTED
LOWERING OF THE STEERING FLOW LEVEL, THE TRAJECTORY SHOULD TURN WEST
AGAIN. THE DISPERSION, ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE STRONG ON THE ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS, TENDS TO REDUCE ON THE MOST RELIABLE DETERMINIST MODELS,
AND IS MAINLY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN THE SPEED OF THE SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE IFS FORECAST, FOR WHICH THE RIDGE IN THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM IS MORE POWERFUL AND INDUCES A FASTER STEERING FLOW. THE
PRESENT FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN IFS AND GFS.

THE INTENSITY SHOULD SLIGHTLY DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36H. THE
SYSTEM BENEFITS FROM A RATHER GOOD ENERGY POTENTIAL DESPITE ITS SLOW
MOVEMENT THAT IS COMPENSATED BY A GOOD ALOFT DIVERGENCE, BUT THE
PRESENCE OF A MODERATE WIND SHEAR CONTRIBUTES TO A SLOW WEAKENING.
AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SHEAR N
MEDIUM TROPOPAUSE COUPLED WITH AN INTRUSION OF THE DRY AIR PRESENT IN
THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM, SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEFINITIVE WEAKENING OF
FABIEN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 201206
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/05/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 030/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 20/05/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FABIEN) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.6 S / 69.3 E
(TEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 160 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/05/21 AT 00 UTC:
11.3 S / 69.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2023/05/21 AT 12 UTC:
11.8 S / 69.2 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 200900
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 230520065453
2023052006 19S FABIEN 024 01 315 01 SATL SYNP 035
T000 100S 0693E 050 R050 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 035 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 120 SE QD 115 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 104S 0694E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 110S 0695E 045 R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 117S 0695E 040 R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 123S 0694E 040 R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD
T072 129S 0691E 035 R034 030 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD
T096 134S 0674E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 024
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 10.0S 69.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S 69.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 10.4S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 11.0S 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 11.7S 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 12.3S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 12.9S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.4S 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 10.1S 69.3E.
20MAY23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258
NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052006Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
202100Z AND 210900Z.
//
1923051206 22S 896E 15
1923051212 24S 886E 15
1923051218 26S 876E 20
1923051300 28S 865E 25
1923051306 28S 856E 25
1923051312 33S 850E 30
1923051318 40S 842E 30
1923051400 43S 833E 35
1923051406 46S 822E 40
1923051412 47S 811E 50
1923051412 47S 811E 50
1923051418 50S 803E 60
1923051418 50S 803E 60
1923051500 51S 794E 65
1923051500 51S 794E 65
1923051500 51S 794E 65
1923051506 54S 784E 75
1923051506 54S 784E 75
1923051506 54S 784E 75
1923051512 55S 775E 85
1923051512 55S 775E 85
1923051512 55S 775E 85
1923051518 59S 767E 90
1923051518 59S 767E 90
1923051518 59S 767E 90
1923051600 62S 761E 90
1923051600 62S 761E 90
1923051600 62S 761E 90
1923051606 67S 755E 95
1923051606 67S 755E 95
1923051606 67S 755E 95
1923051612 73S 751E 100
1923051612 73S 751E 100
1923051612 73S 751E 100
1923051618 79S 745E 100
1923051618 79S 745E 100
1923051618 79S 745E 100
1923051700 84S 741E 95
1923051700 84S 741E 95
1923051700 84S 741E 95
1923051706 88S 738E 90
1923051706 88S 738E 90
1923051706 88S 738E 90
1923051712 90S 734E 80
1923051712 90S 734E 80
1923051712 90S 734E 80
1923051718 90S 731E 65
1923051718 90S 731E 65
1923051718 90S 731E 65
1923051800 89S 725E 60
1923051800 89S 725E 60
1923051806 89S 720E 50
1923051806 89S 720E 50
1923051812 92S 717E 45
1923051818 94S 710E 45
1923051900 95S 703E 40
1923051906 99S 700E 45
1923051912 102S 697E 45
1923051918 102S 695E 45
1923052000 101S 694E 50
1923052006 100S 693E 50
1923052006 100S 693E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 10.0S 69.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S 69.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 10.4S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 11.0S 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 11.7S 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 12.3S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 12.9S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.4S 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 10.1S 69.3E.
20MAY23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258
NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052006Z
IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z AND 210900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 200627
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 29/10/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 20/05/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.3 S / 69.4 E
(DIX DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE NEUF DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SO: 220 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 40 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 20/05/2023 18 UTC: 10.8 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 195 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 95

24H: 21/05/2023 06 UTC: 11.5 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 260 SO: 195 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 140 NO: 75

36H: 21/05/2023 18 UTC: 12.2 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 175 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 75

48H: 22/05/2023 06 UTC: 12.8 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 0

60H: 22/05/2023 18 UTC: 13.4 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SO: 0 NO: 85

72H: 23/05/2023 06 UTC: 13.9 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
PERTURBATION TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 24/05/2023 06 UTC: 14.4 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

120H: 25/05/2023 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0 CI=3.5

DURANT LES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA PRESENTATION NUAGEUSE S'EST
DEGRADEE.
LA CONVECTION S'EST PROGRESSIVEMENT AFFAIBLIE DANS LE DEMI CERCLE
EST, AVEC KLA REDUCTION DE LA BANDE INCURVEE, MAIS LA PERSISTANCE DE
PUISSANTS BURSTS SUCCESSIFS AU NIVEAU DU CENTRE. LA CONFIGURATION
NUAGEUSE EVOLUE VERS UN HYBRIDE ENTRE CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE ET
BANDE INCURVEE SE DESORGANISANT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. LES
DERNIERES DONNEES OBJECTIVES (SAR DE 0051Z ET ASCAT DE 0430Z)
CONFIRMENT L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME ET LA DISYMETRIE DE LA
CIRCULATION LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS N'ETANT PLUS PRESENTS QUE DANS
LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-OUEST. L'INTENSITE EST DESCENDUE A 50KT.

FABIEN SEMBLE AMORCER UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD, AVEC UN FLUX DIRECTEUR
PILOTE PAR UNE DORSALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME, INDUISANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE
MERIDIENNE POUR CE WEEK-END. A PARTIR DE MARDI, AVEC UN ABAISSEMENT
ATTENDU DU NIVEAU DU FLUX DIRECTEUR, LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT DE
NOUVEAU S'ORIENTER VERS L'OUEST. LA DISPERSION, BIEN QU'ENCORE ASSEZ
FORTE SUR LES PREVISIONS ENSEMBLISTES, TEND A SE REDUIRE SUR LES
MODELES DETERMINISTES LES PLUS FIABLES.

L'INTENSITE DEVRAIT LEGEREMENT S'ATTENUER CES PROCHAINES 24 A 36H. LE
SYSTEME BENEFICIE D'UN ASSEZ BON POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE MALGRE SON
DEPLACEMENT LENT QUE COMPENSE UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, MAIS
LA PRESENCE D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE VENT MODERE CONTRIBUE A UN LENT
AFFAIBLISSEMENT.
EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LE RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT COUPLE
A UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DEVRAIT
CONDUIRE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEFINITIF DE FABIEN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 200627
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/10/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION 2023/05/20 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.3 S / 69.4 E
(TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 40 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/05/20 18 UTC: 10.8 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 195 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 95

24H: 2023/05/21 06 UTC: 11.5 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 260 SW: 195 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 75

36H: 2023/05/21 18 UTC: 12.2 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 75

48H: 2023/05/22 06 UTC: 12.8 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 0

60H: 2023/05/22 18 UTC: 13.4 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 0 NW: 85

72H: 2023/05/23 06 UTC: 13.9 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/05/24 06 UTC: 14.4 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

120H: 2023/05/25 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUDY PRESENTATION HAS DETERIORATED.
THE CONVECTION HAS PROGRESSIVELY WEAKENED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE,
WITH THE REDUCTION OF THE CURVED BAND, BUT THE PERSISTENCE OF STRONG
SUCCESSIVE BURSTS IN THE CENTER. THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION EVOLVES
TOWARDS A HYBRID BETWEEN CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE MASS AND CURVED BAND
DISORGANIZING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE LAST OBJECTIVE DATA (SAR
OF 0051Z AND ASCAT OF 0430Z) CONFIRM THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AND
THE DISYMMETRY OF THE CIRCULATION, THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING PRESENT
ONLY IN THE SOUTH-WEST SEMICIRCLE. THE INTENSITY IS DOWN TO 50KT.

FABIEN SEEMS TO START A SOUTHWARD TURN, WITH A STEERING FLOW DRIVEN
BY A RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, INDUCING A MERIDIAN TRAJECTORY FOR
THIS WEEKEND. FROM TUESDAY, WITH AN EXPECTED LOWERING OF THE STEERING
FLOW LEVEL, THE TRAJECTORY SHOULD TURN WEST AGAIN. THE DISPERSION,
ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE STRONG ON THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS, TENDS TO
REDUCE ON THE MOST RELIABLE DETERMINIST MODELS.

THE INTENSITY SHOULD SLIGHTLY DECREASE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
THE SYSTEM BENEFITS FROM A FAIRLY GOOD ENERGY POTENTIAL DESPITE ITS
SLOW MOVEMENT THAT IS COMPENSATED BY A GOOD DIVERGENCE OF ALOFT, BUT
THE PRESENCE OF A MODERATE WIND SHEAR CONTRIBUTES TO A SLOW
WEAKENING.
AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SHEAR COUPLED
WITH AN INCREASINGLY DRY ENVIRONMENT IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE SHOULD
LEAD TO THE DEFINITIVE WEAKENING OF FABIEN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 200611
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/05/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 029/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 20/05/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FABIEN) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.3 S / 69.4 E
(TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 140 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT ET UP TO 350 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 20
NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/05/20 AT 18 UTC:
10.8 S / 69.4 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 50 NM

24H, VALID 2023/05/21 AT 06 UTC:
11.5 S / 69.4 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 200033
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 28/10/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 20/05/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.2 S / 69.4 E
(DIX DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE NEUF DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 989 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SO: 240 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 60 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 20/05/2023 12 UTC: 10.6 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 65

24H: 21/05/2023 00 UTC: 11.2 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SO: 205 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 130 NO: 85

36H: 21/05/2023 12 UTC: 11.7 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SO: 205 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75

48H: 22/05/2023 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 65

60H: 22/05/2023 12 UTC: 13.1 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 220 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 0

72H: 23/05/2023 00 UTC: 13.5 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SO: 195 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 24/05/2023 00 UTC: 14.0 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
PERTURBATION TROPICALE

120H: 25/05/2023 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0 CI=3.0

SUR LA BASE DES ESTIMATIONS D'INTENSITE OBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES DEPUIS
VENDREDI (SMAP, ASCAT, SAR), L'INTENSITE ANALYSEE DE FABIEN A ETE
REVUE A LA HAUSSE DANS LA BEST-TRACK (50KT LE 19 A 06Z, 55KT A 12 ET
18Z).
LA CONVECTION S'EST TEMPORAIREMENT AFFAIBLIE AUTOUR DE 18Z PUIS A
REPRIS DEPUIS 20Z, AVEC DE PUISSANTS BURSTS SUCCESSIFS AU NIVEAU DU
CENTRE. LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE SEMBLE EVOLUER VERS UN HYBRIDE
ENTRE CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE ET BANDE INCURVEE S'ENROULANT DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE EST SUR PLUS D'UN DEMI-TOUR. EN L'ABSENCE DE NOUVELLES
DONNEES OBJECTIVES ET COMPTE TENU DE LA FORTE REPRISE DE LA
CONVECTION ET DE L'AMELIORATION DE LA STRUCTURE DU SYSTEME,
L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE A 55KT, ENCORE LEGEREMENT AU-DESSUS DE
L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE.

FABIEN SEMBLE AMORCER UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD, AVEC UN FLUX DIRECTEUR
PILOTE PAR UNE DORSALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME, INDUISANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE
MERIDIENNE POUR CE WEEK-END. A PARTIR DE MARDI, AVEC UN ABAISSEMENT
ATTENDU DU NIVEAU DU FLUX DIRECTEUR, LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT DE
NOUVEAU S'ORIENTER VERS L'OUEST. LA DISPERSION, BIEN QU'ENCORE ASSEZ
FORTE SUR LES PREVISIONS ENSEMBLISTES, TEND A SE REDUIRE SUR LES
MODELES DETERMINISTES LES PLUS FIABLES.

L'INTENSITE DEVRAIT RESTER A PEU PRES STABLE OU LEGEREMENT S'ATTENUER
CES PROCHAINES 24 A 36H. LE SYSTEME BENEFICIE D'UN BON POTENTIEL
ENERGETIQUE AVEC UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, MAIS LA PRESENCE
D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE VENT MODERE RESTE UN FREIN A L'INTENSIFICATION.
EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LE RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT COUPLE
A UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DEVRAIT
CONDUIRE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEFINITIF DE FABIEN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 200033
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/10/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION 2023/05/20 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.2 S / 69.4 E
(TEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/05/20 12 UTC: 10.6 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 65

24H: 2023/05/21 00 UTC: 11.2 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 85

36H: 2023/05/21 12 UTC: 11.7 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75

48H: 2023/05/22 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65

60H: 2023/05/22 12 UTC: 13.1 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 220 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 0

72H: 2023/05/23 00 UTC: 13.5 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/05/24 00 UTC: 14.0 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

120H: 2023/05/25 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.0

BASED ON VARIOUS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AVAILABLE SINCE FRIDAY
(SMAP, ASCAT, SAR), FABIEN'S ANALYZED INTENSITY HAS BEEN UPGRADED IN
THE BEST-TRACK (50KT AT 06Z, 55KT AT 12 AND 18Z ON FRIDAY).
CONVECTION HAS TEMPORARILY WEAKENED AROUND 18Z THEN RESUMED SINCE
20Z, WITH STRONG BURSTS NEAR THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM'S CLOUD PATTERN
SEEMS TO EVOLVE TOWARDS A HYBRID BETWEEN A CDO AND A CURVED BAND
WRAPPING MORE THAN HALFWAY ROUND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. WITHOUT
ANY NEW OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT RECENT STRONG
CONVECTION AND IMPROVEMENT OF SYSTEM'S STRUCTURE, THE INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 55KT, STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS.

FABIEN SEEMS TO HAVE STARTED A SOUTHWARD TURN, AS THE STEERING FLOW
BECOMES MAINLY DRIVEN BY A RIDGE EXTENDING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM, INDUCING A MERIDIAN TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND. FROM TUESDAY
ONWARDS, WITH AN EXPECTED LOWERING OF THE STEERING FLOW LEVEL, THE
TRACK SHOULD TURN MORE WESTWARDS AGAIN. MODEL DISPERSION, ALTHOUGH
STILL QUITE STRONG ON THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS, TENDS TO DECREASE ON
THE MOST RELIABLE DETERMINIST MODELS.

THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN ALMOST STABLE OR SLIGHTLY
DECREASING IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE SYSTEM BENEFITS FROM GOOD
ENERGETIC POTENTIAL WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE BUT THE PRESENCE OF
WIND SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK, INCREASING SHEAR COUPLED WITH AN INCREASINGLY DRY MID
TROPOSPHERE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO FABIEN'S FINAL WEAKENING.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 200017
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/05/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 028/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 20/05/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FABIEN) 989 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.2 S / 69.4 E
(TEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 230 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/05/20 AT 12 UTC:
10.6 S / 69.4 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2023/05/21 AT 00 UTC:
11.2 S / 69.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 45 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 192100
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 230519200035
2023051918 19S FABIEN 023 01 270 02 SATL 060
T000 102S 0695E 045 R034 060 NE QD 120 SE QD 115 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 105S 0693E 050 R050 020 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 108S 0693E 045 R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 112S 0694E 045 R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 116S 0693E 040 R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 123S 0691E 035 R034 000 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 000 NW QD
T096 127S 0685E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 023
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 10.2S 69.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 69.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 10.5S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 10.8S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 11.2S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 11.6S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 12.3S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.7S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 69.5E.
19MAY23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257
NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023051918Z
IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z AND 202100Z.//
1923051206 22S 896E 15
1923051212 24S 886E 15
1923051218 26S 876E 20
1923051300 28S 865E 25
1923051306 28S 856E 25
1923051312 33S 850E 30
1923051318 40S 842E 30
1923051400 43S 833E 35
1923051406 46S 822E 40
1923051412 47S 811E 50
1923051412 47S 811E 50
1923051418 50S 803E 60
1923051418 50S 803E 60
1923051500 51S 794E 65
1923051500 51S 794E 65
1923051500 51S 794E 65
1923051506 54S 784E 75
1923051506 54S 784E 75
1923051506 54S 784E 75
1923051512 55S 775E 85
1923051512 55S 775E 85
1923051512 55S 775E 85
1923051518 59S 767E 90
1923051518 59S 767E 90
1923051518 59S 767E 90
1923051600 62S 761E 90
1923051600 62S 761E 90
1923051600 62S 761E 90
1923051606 67S 755E 95
1923051606 67S 755E 95
1923051606 67S 755E 95
1923051612 73S 751E 100
1923051612 73S 751E 100
1923051612 73S 751E 100
1923051618 79S 745E 100
1923051618 79S 745E 100
1923051618 79S 745E 100
1923051700 84S 741E 95
1923051700 84S 741E 95
1923051700 84S 741E 95
1923051706 88S 738E 90
1923051706 88S 738E 90
1923051706 88S 738E 90
1923051712 90S 734E 80
1923051712 90S 734E 80
1923051712 90S 734E 80
1923051718 90S 731E 65
1923051718 90S 731E 65
1923051718 90S 731E 65
1923051800 89S 725E 60
1923051800 89S 725E 60
1923051806 89S 720E 50
1923051806 89S 720E 50
1923051812 92S 717E 45
1923051818 94S 710E 45
1923051900 95S 703E 40
1923051906 99S 700E 45
1923051912 102S 697E 45
1923051918 102S 695E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 10.2S 69.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 69.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 10.5S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 10.8S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 11.2S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 11.6S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 12.3S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.7S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 69.5E.
19MAY23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257
NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023051918Z
IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z AND 202100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 191846
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 27/10/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 19/05/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.0 S / 69.5 E
(DIX DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE NEUF DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 20/05/2023 06 UTC: 10.3 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SO: 215 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 65

24H: 20/05/2023 18 UTC: 10.8 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 195 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 65

36H: 21/05/2023 06 UTC: 11.3 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SO: 195 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 75

48H: 21/05/2023 18 UTC: 11.9 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SO: 230 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 110 NO: 0

60H: 22/05/2023 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SO: 185 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 0

72H: 22/05/2023 18 UTC: 13.4 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 23/05/2023 18 UTC: 13.9 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
PERTURBATION TROPICALE

120H: 24/05/2023 18 UTC: 14.6 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0 CI=3.0

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A NEBULOSITE CENTRALE FROIDE S'EST
MAINTENUE EN DEBUT DE SOIREE, AVANT UN RECHAUFFEMENT DES SOMMETS UN
PEU AVANT 18Z. LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES ET SURTOUT UNE PASSE ASCAT A
1711Z ONT PERMIS DE LOCALISER APPROXIMATIVEMENT LE CENTRE. L'ANALYSE
D'INTENSITE EST RENDUE COMPLEXE ET INCERTAINE DU FAIT D'ESTIMATIONS
OBJECTIVES ASSEZ CONTRADICTOIRES ET DISPONIBLES TARDIVEMENT. UNE
PASSE SAR RCM-3 A 1346Z INDIQUE DES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD AVEC MEME DE L'OURAGAN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST, CE
QUI SEMBLE EXAGERE. UNE PASSE SMAP A 1333Z INDIQUE DES VENTS A 57KT
ET LA PRESENCE DE TEMPETE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. LES DONNEES ASCAT
N'ATTEIGNENT EN REVANCHE QUE 41KT, MEME SI ELLES NE COUVRENT PAS LE
QUADRANT SUD-OUEST QUI SEMBLE LE PLUS VENTEUX. CES DONNEES N'AYANT PU
ETRE ANALYSEES A TEMPS POUR LA PRODUCTION DE 18UTC, L'INTENSITE A ETE
MAINTENUE A 45KT MAIS SEMBLE SOUS-ESTIMER LES VENTS REELS. UNE
CORRECTION SERA DONC FAITE A POSTERIORI SUR LA BEST-TRACK POUR
UPGRADER FABIEN EN FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE AVEC DES VENTS DE 55KT A
12 ET 18UTC. LES 50KT ETAIENT PROBABLEMENT DEJA PRESENTS AU MOINS A
06UTC (PASSE SMAP A 50KT A 0121Z).

FABIEN SE DIRIGE ACTUELLEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST, GUIDE PAR UNE
DORSALE A 700 HPA QUI TEND A S'EFFACER PLUS AU SUD. LE FLUX DIRECTEUR
DEVRAIT GRADUELLEMENT BASCULER SUR LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE QUI
SE PROLONGE A L'EST DU SYSTEME, INDUISANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE MERIDIENNE
CE WEEK-END. EN FIN DE PERIODE, AVEC UN ABAISSEMENT ATTENDU DU NIVEAU
DU FLUX DIRECTEUR, LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT TENDRE A REVENIR VERS
L'OUEST. LA DISPERSION, BIEN QU'ENCORE ASSEZ FORTE SUR LES PREVISIONS
ENSEMBLISTES, TEND A SE REDUIRE SUR LES MODELES DETERMINISTES LES
PLUS FIABLES, IMPLIQUANT UN DEGRE DE CONFIANCE A LA HAUSSE SUR LA
PREVISION.

L'INTENSITE DEVRAIT RESTER A PEU PRES STABLE CES PROCHAINES 24 A 36H.
LE SYSTEME BENEFICIE D'UN BON POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE AVEC UNE BONNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE MAIS LA PRESENCE D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE VENT,
PERTURBANT LA CONSOLIDATION SUR LA VERTICALE DU COEUR CONVECTIF, NE
DEVRAIT PAS PERMETTRE A FABIEN DE PROFITER PLEINEMENT DE CE
POTENTIEL. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LE RENFORCEMENT DU
CISAILLEMENT COUPLE A UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS SEC EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE, DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEFINITIF DE
FABIEN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 191846
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/10/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION 2023/05/19 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.0 S / 69.5 E
(TEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/05/20 06 UTC: 10.3 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 65

24H: 2023/05/20 18 UTC: 10.8 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 65

36H: 2023/05/21 06 UTC: 11.3 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 75

48H: 2023/05/21 18 UTC: 11.9 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 230 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 110 NW: 0

60H: 2023/05/22 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SW: 185 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 0

72H: 2023/05/22 18 UTC: 13.4 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/05/23 18 UTC: 13.9 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

120H: 2023/05/24 18 UTC: 14.6 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.0

FABIEN HAS KEPT ITS CENTRAL COLD COVER PATTERN IN THE EVENING EARLY
HOURS BUT CLOUD TOPS ARE NOW WARMING AND THE CCC PATTERN SEEMS TO
WEAKEN. VARIOUS MICRO-WAVE DATA AND THE 1711Z ASCAT PASS HAVE ENABLED
TO APPROXIMATELY LOCATE THE SYSTEM'S CENTER. THE INTENSITY ANALYSIS
IS COMPLICATED AND UNCERTAIN DUE TO QUITE CONTRADICTORY AND LATE
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES. A SAR RCM-3 PASS AT 1346Z INDICATES STORM FORCE
WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH EVEN HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN
THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT, WHICH SEEMS EXAGERATED. A 1333Z SMAP PASS
INDICATES WINDS AT 57KT AND THE PRESENCE OF STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ON THE OTHER HAND, ASCAT WINDS ONLY REACH 41KT,
EVEN IF THEY DO NOT COVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT WHICH SEEMS TO BE
THE WINDIEST. AS THESE DATA COULD NOT BE THOROUGHLY ANALYZED IN TIME
FOR THE 18UTC PRODUCTION, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 45KT
BUT SEEMS TO UNDERESTIMATE THE REAL WINDS. A CORRECTION WILL THUS BE
MADE AFTERWARDS ON THE BEST-TRACK TO UPGRADE FABIEN TO SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM STAGE WITH WINDS OF 55KT AT 12 AND 18UTC. THE 50KT
WERE PROBABLY ALREADY PRESENT AT LEAST AT 06UTC (0121Z SMAP PASS UP
TO 50KT).

FABIEN IS CURRENTLY HEADING SOUTHWEST, GUIDED BY A RIDGE AT 700 HPA
WHICH TENDS TO FADE AWAY FURTHER SOUTH. THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD
GRADUALLY SWITCH TO THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS EAST OF
THE SYSTEM THUS INDUCING A MERIDIAN TRACK THIS WEEKEND. AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD, WITH AN EXPECTED LOWERING OF THE STEERING FLOW LEVEL, THE
TRACK SHOULD TEND TO TURN WESTWARDS. MODEL DISPERSION, ALTHOUGH STILL
QUITE STRONG ON THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS, TENDS TO DECREASE ON THE MOST
RELIABLE DETERMINIST MODELS, IMPLYING HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST.

THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY SHOULD BE ALMOST STABLE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS OR SO. THE SYSTEM BENEFITS FROM GOOD ENERGETIC POTENTIAL WITH
GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE BUT THE PRESENCE OF WIND SHEAR TILTING THE
CONVECTIVE CORE, SHOULD NOT ALLOW FABIEN TO TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF
THE ENVIRONMENT'S POTENTIAL. AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK,
STRENGTHENING SHEAR COUPLED WITH AN INCREASINGLY DRY ENVIRONMENT IN
THE MID TROPOSPHERE, SHOULD LEAD TO FABIEN'S FINAL WEAKENING.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 191831
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/05/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 19/05/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FABIEN) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.0 S / 69.5 E
(TEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/05/20 AT 06 UTC:
10.3 S / 69.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2023/05/20 AT 18 UTC:
10.8 S / 69.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 191241
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/10/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 19/05/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.6 S / 69.7 E
(NEUF DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE NEUF DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 20/05/2023 00 UTC: 10.1 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 150 NO: 85

24H: 20/05/2023 12 UTC: 10.5 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 260 SO: 215 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 85

36H: 21/05/2023 00 UTC: 11.1 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SO: 175 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 120 NO: 95

48H: 21/05/2023 12 UTC: 11.7 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 65

60H: 22/05/2023 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 65

72H: 22/05/2023 12 UTC: 13.4 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SO: 185 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 23/05/2023 12 UTC: 14.1 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SO: 195 NO: 100

120H: 24/05/2023 12 UTC: 14.2 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0 CI=3.0

LA POSITION ET LA STRUCTURE DE FABIEN A PU ETRE PRECISEE GRACE A
L'IMAGERIE SSMIS DE 1109Z. LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE FABIEN
S'APPARENTE A UNE CONFIGURATION A NEBULOSITE CENTRALE FROIDE (CENTRAL
COLD COVER - CCC) AVEC DES SOMMETS TRES FROIDS RECOUVRANT LE CENTRE
MAIS ASSOCIE A UNE CONVECTION PROFONDE LOCALISEE UNIQUEMEENT DANS LE
QUADRANT SUD-EST. L'INTENSITE RESTE ESTIMEE A 45 KT EN LIEN AVEC DES
ESTIMATIONS SATELLITES OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES STABLES, CE QUI EST
COHERENT AVEC L'EVOLUTION EN CCC (IMPLIQUANT UNE INTENSITE
STABILISEE).

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, LA PREVISION ACTUELLE RESTE DANS LA
PHILOSOPHIE PRECEDENTE MAIS TABLE SUR UN DEPLACEMENT UN PEU PLUS
RAPIDE DANS LA DESCENTE VERS LE SUD D'ICI LUNDI SOIR : FABIEN SE
DIRIGE ACTUELLEMENT VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN RALENTISSANT GUIDE PAR
UNE DORSALE A 700 HPA QUI TEND A S'EFFACER PLUS AU SUD. LE FLUX
DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT GRADUELLEMENT BASCULE SUR LA DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE QUI SE PROLONGE A L'EST DU SYSTEME ET DEVRAIT
GRADUELLEMENT INDUIRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE MERIDIENNE CE WEEK-END. EN FIN
DE PERIODE, AVEC UN ABAISSEMENT ATTENDU DU NIVEAU DU FLUX DIRECTEUR,
LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT TENDRE A GRADUELLEMENT REVENIR VERS L'OUEST.
LA DISPERSION, BIEN QU'ENCORE ASSEZ FORTE SUR LES PREVISIONS
ENSEMBLISTES, TEND A SE REDUIRE SUR LES MODELES DETERMINISTES LES
PLUS FIABLES, IMPLIQUANT UN DEGRE DE CONFIANCE A LA HAUSSE SUR LA
PREVISION.

LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE TABLE SUR UN MAINTIEN DE LA CONFIGURATION EN
CCC ACTUELLE COHERENT AVEC UNE INTENSITE STABILISEE POUR LES
PROCHAINES 24 A 36H. LE SYSTEME EVOLUE MAINTENANT SUR DES EAUX A BON
POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE AVEC UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE MAIS
L'OMINIPRESENCE D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE VENT FAVORISANT LES INTRUSION
D'AIR SEC, NE DEVRAIT PAS PERMETTRE A FABIEN DE PROFITER PLEINEMENT
DE CE POTENTIEL. DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LE RENFORCEMENT DU
CISAILLEMENT COUPLE A UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS SEC EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE, DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEFINITIF DE
FABIEN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 191241
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/10/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION 2023/05/19 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.6 S / 69.7 E
(NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/05/20 00 UTC: 10.1 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 85

24H: 2023/05/20 12 UTC: 10.5 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 85

36H: 2023/05/21 00 UTC: 11.1 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 95

48H: 2023/05/21 12 UTC: 11.7 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 65

60H: 2023/05/22 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 65

72H: 2023/05/22 12 UTC: 13.4 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/05/23 12 UTC: 14.1 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 100

120H: 2023/05/24 12 UTC: 14.2 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.0

THE POSITION AND STRUCTURE OF FABIEN COULD BE PRECISE THANKS TO SSMIS
IMAGERY FROM 1109Z. THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION OF FABIEN IS NOW A
CENTRAL COLD COVER (CCC) WITH VERY COLD TOPS COVERING THE CENTER BUT
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP CONVECTION LOCALIZED ONLY IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT. THE INTENSITY REMAINS ESTIMATED AT 45 KT IN RELATION WITH
STABLE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES, WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION IN CCC (IMPLYING A STABILIZED
INTENSITY).

IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY, THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS IN THE PREVIOUS
PHILOSOPHY BUT SHOW A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOUTHERLY TRACK ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY: FABIAN IS CURRENTLY HEADING WEST-SOUTHWEST SLOWING DOWN
GUIDED BY A RIDGE AT 700 HPA WHICH TENDS TO FADE AWAY FURTHER SOUTH.
THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY SWITCH TO THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND SHOULD GRADUALLY INDUCE A
MERIDIAN TRAJECTORY THIS WEEKEND. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH AN
EXPECTED LOWERING OF THE LEVEL OF THE STEERING FLOW, THE TRAJECTORY
SHOULD TEND TO GRADUALLY RETURN TOWARDS THE WEST. THE DISPERSION,
ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE STRONG ON THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS, TENDS TO
REDUCE ON THE MOST RELIABLE DETERMINIST MODELS, IMPLYING A DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A MAINTENANCE OF THE CURRENT CCC
CONFIGURATION WITH A STABILIZED INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36H. THE
SYSTEM IS NOW EVOLVING ON WATERS WITH A GOOD ENERGETIC POTENTIAL WITH
A GOOD ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE BUT THE PRESENCE OF A WIND SHEAR FAVORING
THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR, SHOULD NOT ALLOW FABIEN TO TAKE FULL
ADVANTAGE OF THIS POTENTIAL. AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE SHEAR COUPLED WITH AN INCREASINGLY DRY
ENVIRONMENT IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE, SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEFINITIVE
WEAKENING OF FABIEN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 191222
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/05/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 19/05/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FABIEN) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.6 S / 69.7 E
(NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 220 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/05/20 AT 00 UTC:
10.1 S / 69.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 45 NM

24H, VALID 2023/05/20 AT 12 UTC:
10.5 S / 69.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 45 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 190646
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/10/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 19/05/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.6 S / 69.9 E
(NEUF DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE NEUF DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/05/2023 18 UTC: 9.9 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 150 NO: 75

24H: 20/05/2023 06 UTC: 10.2 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SO: 205 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 140 NO: 95

36H: 20/05/2023 18 UTC: 10.5 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SO: 195 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 140 NO: 95

48H: 21/05/2023 06 UTC: 11.0 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 120 NO: 85

60H: 21/05/2023 18 UTC: 11.5 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SO: 175 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 75

72H: 22/05/2023 06 UTC: 12.2 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SO: 165 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 23/05/2023 06 UTC: 12.9 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SO: 155 NO: 0

120H: 24/05/2023 06 UTC: 13.0 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0 CI=3.0

FABIEN A REPRIS QUELQUES COULEURS AVEC UNE CONVECTION VIGOUREUSE
PERSISTANTE PRES DU CENTRE DEPUIS LA FIN DE NUIT. EN L'ABSENCE DE
DONNEES OBJECTIVES FIABLES POUR ESTIMER L'INTENSITE, UNE ESTIMATION
INCERTAINE A 45 KT EST MAINTENUE COMPTE TENU QUE CELLE-CI RESTE DANS
LA LIMITE SUPERIEURE DES ESTIMATIONS SATELLITES OBJECTIVES ET
SUBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, LA PREVISION ACTUELLE RESTE DANS LA
PHILOSOPHIE PRECEDENTE AVEC DES AJUSTEMENTS MARGINAUX SUR LA
PREVISION : FABIEN SE DIRIGE ACTUELLEMENT VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN
RALENTISSANT GUIDE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE GLISSANT PLUS AU SUD
DU SYSTEME. ENTRE VENDREDI ET SAMEDI, FABIEN SERA SOUMIS A DES FLUX
DIRECTEURS PLUS CONTRADICTOIRES ENTRE DEUX DORSALES, CE QUI POURRAIT
LE RENDRE TEMPORAIREMENT QUASI-STATIONNAIRE. AVEC L'EFFACEMENT DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ADOPTER UNE
TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD. EN FIN DE PERIODE, AVEC UN
ABAISSEMENT ATTENDU DU NIVEAU DU FLUX DIRECTEUR, LA TRAJECTOIRE
DEVRAIT TENDRE A GRADUELLEMENT REVENIR VERS L'OUEST. LA DISPERSION
RESTE ENCORE ASSEZ FORTE DANS LES GUIDANCES SUR LA LENTE TRAKECTOIRE
MERIDIENNE A VENIR, CE QUI LIMITE LA CONFIANCE DANS LA PREVISION.

LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE RESTE UN VRAI CHALLENGE COMPTE TENU DES
INFLUENCES CONTRADICTOIRES EN PRESENCE. LE SYSTEME EVOLUE MAINTENANT
SUR DES EAUX A BON POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE AVEC UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE MAIS L'OMINIPRESENCE D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE VENT FAVORISANT
LES INTRUSION D'AIR SEC, NE DEVRAIT PAS PERMETTRE A FABIEN DE
PROFITER PLEINEMENT DE CE POTENTIEL. LA PRESENTE PREVISION MONTRE UNE
INTENSITE STABILISEE D'ICI DIMANCHE MAIS DES FLUCTUATIONS RESTENT
POSSIBLES. DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LE RENFORCEMENT DU
CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEFINITIF DE
FABIEN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 190646
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/10/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION 2023/05/19 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.6 S / 69.9 E
(NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/05/19 18 UTC: 9.9 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 75

24H: 2023/05/20 06 UTC: 10.2 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 95

36H: 2023/05/20 18 UTC: 10.5 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 95

48H: 2023/05/21 06 UTC: 11.0 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 85

60H: 2023/05/21 18 UTC: 11.5 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 75

72H: 2023/05/22 06 UTC: 12.2 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/05/23 06 UTC: 12.9 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 155 NW: 0

120H: 2023/05/24 06 UTC: 13.0 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.0

FABIEN IS SHOWING A BETTER CLOUD PATTERN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH A
PERSISTENT VIGOROUS CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER SINCE THE END OF THE
NIGHT. IN THE ABSENCE OF RELIABLE OBJECTIVE DATA TO ESTIMATE THE
INTENSITY, AN UNCERTAIN ESTIMATE AT 45 KT IS MAINTAINED CONSIDERING
THAT THIS VALUE IS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER LIMIT OF THE AVAILABLE
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES.

IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY, THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS IN THE PREVIOUS
PHILOSOPHY WITH MARGINAL ADJUSTMENTS ON THE FORECAST: FABIEN IS
CURRENTLY HEADING ON A SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK GUIDED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SLIDING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. BETWEEN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, FABIEN WILL BE SUBJECT TO MORE CONTRADICTORY STEERING
FLOWS BETWEEN TWO RIDGES, WHICH COULD MAKE IT TEMPORARILY
QUASI-STATIONARY. WITH THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ADOPT A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY.
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH AN EXPECTED LOWERING OF THE LEVEL OF
THE STEERING FLOW, THE TRAJECTORY SHOULD TEND TO RETURN GRADUALLY
TOWARDS THE WEST. THE DISPERSION IS STILL QUITE STRONG IN THE
GUIDANCE ON THE SLOW MERIDIAN TRACK TO COME, WHICH LIMITS THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

FORECASTING INTENSITY REMAINS A REAL CHALLENGE GIVEN THE
CONTRADICTORY INFLUENCES PRESENT. THE SYSTEM IS NOW EVOLVING ON
WATERS WITH A GOOD ENERGETIC POTENTIAL WITH A GOOD ALTITUDE
DIVERGENCE BUT THE PRESENCE OF A WIND SHEAR FAVORING THE INTRUSION OF
DRY AIR, SHOULD NOT ALLOW FABIEN TO TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF THIS
POTENTIAL. THE PRESENT FORECAST SHOWS A STABILIZED INTENSITY BY
SUNDAY BUT FLUCTUATIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE. EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE SHEAR SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEFINITIVE WEAKENING OF
FABIEN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 190617
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/05/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 19/05/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FABIEN) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.6 S / 69.9 E
(NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/05/19 AT 18 UTC:
9.9 S / 69.4 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2023/05/20 AT 06 UTC:
10.2 S / 69.4 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 50 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 190042
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/10/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 19/05/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.6 S / 70.6 E
(NEUF DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SO: 195 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1012 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/05/2023 12 UTC: 9.8 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 250 SO: 240 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 150 NO: 65

24H: 20/05/2023 00 UTC: 10.0 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SO: 250 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 150 NO: 65

36H: 20/05/2023 12 UTC: 10.3 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 260 SO: 195 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SO: 155 NO: 85

48H: 21/05/2023 00 UTC: 10.7 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 130 NO: 75

60H: 21/05/2023 12 UTC: 11.1 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SO: 175 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 130 NO: 65

72H: 22/05/2023 00 UTC: 11.7 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 120 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 23/05/2023 00 UTC: 12.7 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SO: 175 NO: 95

120H: 24/05/2023 00 UTC: 12.9 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5 CI=3.0

AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE QUI S'ETAIT
RENFORCEE EN SOIREE S'EST A NOUVEAU EFFONDREE PROCHE DU CENTRE,
PROBABLEMENT EN LIEN AVEC LE CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. EN
L'ABSENCE DE DONNEES MICRO-ONDES FIABLE, LA POSITION ANALYSEE ET DANS
UNE MOINDRE MESURE L'INTENSITE ANALYSEE, EST ASSEZ INCERTAINE.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, LA PREVISION ACTUELLE RESTE DANS LA
PHILOSOPHIE PRECEDENTE : FABIEN SE DIRIGE ACTUELLEMENT VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST GUIDE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE GLISSANT PLUS AU
SUD DU SYSTEME. ENTRE VENDREDI ET SAMEDI, FABIEN SERA SOUMIS A DES
FLUX DIRECTEURS PLUS CONTRADICTOIRES ENTRE DEUX DORSALES, CE QUI
POURRAIT LE RENDRE TEMPORAIREMENT QUASI-STATIONNAIRE. AVEC
L'EFFACEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
ADOPTER UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD. EN FIN DE
PERIODE, AVEC UN ABAISSEMENT ATTENDU DU NIVEAU DU FLUX DIRECTEUR, LA
TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT TENDRE A GRADUELLEMENT REVENIR VERS L'OUEST. LES
MODELES NUMERIQUES PRESENTENT ENCORE UNE FORTE DISPERSION DANS LEURS
PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE AVEC NOTAMMENT GFS ET CERTAINS MEMBRES DE
L'EPS QUI PROPOSENT TOUJOURS DES SCENARIOS NETTEMENT PLUS A L'EST.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H, FABIEN DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE SUBIR LES
EFFETS NEFASTES DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST-SUD-OUEST FAVORISANT LES
INTRUSION D'AIR SEC. DE PLUS LE DEPLACEMENT LENT DU SYSTEME POURRAIT
FAVORISER UNE BAISSE SENSIBLE DE SON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. EN COURS DE
WEEK-END, CE CISAILLEMENT POURRAIT TEMPORAIREMENT FAIBLIR ET
PERMETTRE LE RETOUR DE CONDITIONS PLUS FAVORABLE A UNE
INTENSIFICATION. CEPENDANT CETTE AMELIORATION VA RESTER DE COURTE
DUREE. DES LE DEBUT DE SEMAIEN PROCHAINE, LE RETOUR DU CISAILLEMENT
DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEFINITIF DE FABIEN. CETTE
PREVISION RESTE PARTICULIEREMENT INCERTAINE DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H
ET DES FLUCTUATIONS D'INTENSITE PLUS MARQUEES RESTENT POSSIBLES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 190042
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/10/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION 2023/05/19 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.6 S / 70.6 E
(NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/05/19 12 UTC: 9.8 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 65

24H: 2023/05/20 00 UTC: 10.0 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 65

36H: 2023/05/20 12 UTC: 10.3 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 260 SW: 195 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 85

48H: 2023/05/21 00 UTC: 10.7 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 130 NW: 75

60H: 2023/05/21 12 UTC: 11.1 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 65

72H: 2023/05/22 00 UTC: 11.7 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/05/23 00 UTC: 12.7 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 95

120H: 2023/05/24 00 UTC: 12.9 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.0

DURING THE LAST HOURS, THE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH HAD STRENGTHENED
DURING THE EVENING, COLLAPSED AGAIN NEAR THE CENTER, PROBABLY IN
RELATION WITH THE PERSISTENT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. IN THE ABSENCE
OF RELIABLE MICROWAVE DATA, THE ANALYZED POSITION AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE ANALYZED INTENSITY, IS RATHER UNCERTAIN.

IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY, THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS IN THE PREVIOUS
PHILOSOPHY : FABIEN IS CURRENTLY HEADING WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD DRIVEN
BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SLIDING MORE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. BETWEEN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, FABIEN WILL BE SUBJECT TO MORE CONTRADICTORY
STEERING FLOWS BETWEEN TWO RIDGES, WHICH COULD MAKE IT TEMPORARILY
QUASI-STATIONARY. WITH THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ADOPT A GENERAL SOUTHWARD HEADING. AT
LONGER RANGE, WITH AN EXPECTED LOWERING OF THE LEVEL OF THE STEERING
FLOW, THE TRACK SHOULD GRADUALLY BEND WESTWARD.THE NUMERICAL MODELS
STILL SHOW A STRONG SPREAD IN THEIR TRACK FORECASTS WITH GFS AND SOME
EPS MEMBERS STILL SHOWING SCENARIOS FURTHER EAST.

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, FABIEN SHOULD CONTINUE TO UNDERGO THE
HARMFUL EFFECTS OF THE WEST-SOUTH WESTERLY SHEAR ALLOWING THE DRY AIR
INTRUSION. MOREOVER, THE SYSTEM'S SLOW MOVEMENT COULD LEAD TO A
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN ITS OCEANIC POTENTIAL. DURING THE WEEKEND,
THE SHEAR COULD TEMPORARILY WEAKEN AND ALLOW THE RETURN OF MORE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR AN INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER THIS IMPROVEMENT
WILL REMAIN SHORT-LIVED. EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SHEAR SHOULD RETURN AND
LEAD TO THE DEFINITIVE WEAKENING OF FABIEN. THIS FORECAST REMAINS
PARTICULARLY UNCERTAIN IN THE NEXT 72H AND STRONGER FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY REMAIN POSSIBLE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 190026
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/05/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 19/05/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FABIEN) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.6 S / 70.6 E
(NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
105 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/05/19 AT 12 UTC:
9.8 S / 69.6 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2023/05/20 AT 00 UTC:
10.0 S / 69.3 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 181907
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/10/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 18/05/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.3 S / 70.8 E
(NEUF DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1012 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/05/2023 06 UTC: 9.5 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 270 SO: 230 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 0

24H: 19/05/2023 18 UTC: 9.7 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 250 SO: 185 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 20/05/2023 06 UTC: 10.2 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SO: 185 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 20/05/2023 18 UTC: 10.5 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 220 SO: 165 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 21/05/2023 06 UTC: 11.0 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 130 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

72H: 21/05/2023 18 UTC: 11.6 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 175 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 150 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/05/2023 18 UTC: 12.5 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SO: 205 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 0

120H: 23/05/2023 18 UTC: 12.9 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 120 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0

L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST NETTEMENT RENFORCE A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE
DE FABIEN CES DERNIERES HEURES, NOTAMMENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD EN
LIEN AVEC LE CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST TOUJOURS PRESENT (MEME S'IL EST
PROBABLEMENT EN BAISSE). CELA EST CONFIRME PAR LES DERNIERES IMAGES
MICRO-ONDES (SSMIS DE 1120Z ET 1401Z) OU LA CIRCULATION EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE MONTRE DES SIGNES DE COURBURE PLUS PRONONCE. UN TILT
RESTE CEPENDANT PRESENTE ENTRE CETTE CIRCULATION D'ALTITUDE ET CELLE
DE SURFACE. LA PASSE RCM3 SAR DE 1338Z INDIQUE DES VENTS MAXIMAUX AU
MOINS DE L'ORDRE DE 40KT. AU VU DE LA TENDANCE RECENTE, L'INTENSITE
ANALYSEE EST REHAUSSEE A 45KT.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, LA PREVISION ACTUELLE RESTE DANS LA
PHILOSOPHIE PRECEDENTE EN ETANT PLUS A L'OUEST EN FIN D'ECHEANCE POUR
TENIR COMPTE DE L'EVOLUTION DES MODELES : FABIEN SE DIRIGE
ACTUELLEMENT VERS L'OUEST GUIDE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE GLISSANT
PLUS AU SUD DU SYSTEME. ENTRE VENDREDI ET SAMEDI, FABIEN SERA SOUMIS
A DES FLUX DIRECTEURS PLUS CONTRADICTOIRES ENTRE DEUX DORSALES, CE
QUI POURRAIT LE RENDRE TEMPORAIREMENT QUASI-STATIONNAIRE. AVEC
L'EFFACEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
ADOPTER UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-EST SOUS
L'INFLUENCE D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE. EN FIN DE PERIODE, AVEC
UN ABAISSEMENT ATTENDU DU NIVEAU DU FLUX DIRECTEUR, LA TRAJECTOIRE
DEVRAIT TENDRE A GRADUELLEMENT REVENIR VERS LE SUD-OUEST.

MALGRE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT RADICAL QU'A CONNU FABIEN AU COURS DES
DERNIERES 36H EN LIEN AVEC LE CISAILLEMENT (PROFOND ET MOYEN) ET LES
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC, LES MODELES CONTINUENT DE SUGGERER UNE LEGERE
AMELIORATION DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SUR CES ASPECTS AU
COURS DES DEUX A TROIS PROCHAINS JOURS. LES GUIDANCES LES PLUS
FIABLES SUGGERENT QUE FABIEN DEVRAIT OSCILLER ENTRE LE STADE DE
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ET DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ENTRE
MAINTENANT ET DIMANCHE SOIR. LA CHRONOLOGIE RESTE PARTICULIERREMENT
DIFFICILE A ANTICIPER CONSIDERANT QU'EN PLUS, LE DEPLACEMENT TRES
LENT VOIRE QUASI-STATIONNAIRE ATTENDU VENDREDI SOIR ET UNE PARTIE DE
LA JOURNEE DE SAMEDI, POURRAIT OCCASIONNER UN EFFONDREMENT TEMPORAIRE
DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEFINITIF RESTE ATTENDU EN
PREMIERE PARTIE DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN
PLUS SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ET UN CISAILLEMENT OMNI PRESENT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 181907
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/10/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION 2023/05/18 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3 S / 70.8 E
(NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/05/19 06 UTC: 9.5 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 0

24H: 2023/05/19 18 UTC: 9.7 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 250 SW: 185 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2023/05/20 06 UTC: 10.2 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 185 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2023/05/20 18 UTC: 10.5 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2023/05/21 06 UTC: 11.0 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2023/05/21 18 UTC: 11.6 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/05/22 18 UTC: 12.5 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 0

120H: 2023/05/23 18 UTC: 12.9 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING
UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CLEARLY STRENGTHENED CLOSE TO FABIAN CENTER
DURING THE LAST HOURS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO
THE STILL PRESENT WESTERLY SHEAR (EVEN IF IT IS PROBABLY DECREASING).
THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE LAST MICROWAVE IMAGES ( 1120Z AND 1401Z
SSMIS) WHERE THE MID-TROPOSPHERE CIRCULATION SHOWS MORE PRONOUNCED
SIGNS OF CURVATURE. HOWEVER, A TILT IS STILL PRESENT BETWEEN THE
UPPER AND LOWER CIRCULATION. THE 1338Z RCM3 SAR PASS INDICATES
MAXIMUM WINDS AT LEAST AROUND 40KT. IN VIEW OF THE RECENT TREND, THE
ANALYZED INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45KT.

IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY, THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS IN THE PREVIOUS
PHILOSOPHY WITH A WESTWARD SHIFT TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE TREND IN
THE GUIDANCE : FABIEN IS CURRENTLY HEADING WESTWARD GUIDED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SLIDING MORE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. BETWEEN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, FABIEN WILL BE SUBJECT TO MORE CONTRADICTORY STEERING
FLOWS BETWEEN TWO RIDGES, WHICH COULD MAKE IT TEMPORARILY
QUASI-STATIONARY. WITH THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ADOPT A GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD, WITH AN EXPECTED LOWERING OF THE LEVEL OF THE STEERING FLOW,
THE TRACK SHOULD GRADUALLY BEND TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST.

DESPITE THE RADICAL WEAKENING THAT FABIEN HAS EXPERIENCED DURING THE
LAST 36H DUE TO THE SHEAR (DEEP AND MID LEVEL) AND DRY AIR
INTRUSIONS, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT OF
THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ON THESE ASPECTS DURING THE NEXT TWO TO
THREE DAYS. THE MOST RELIABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FABIEN SHOULD
FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE CHRONOLOGY
REMAINS PARTICULARLY DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE CONSIDERING THAT IN
ADDITION, THE VERY SLOW OR EVEN QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY EVENING AND PART OF SATURDAY, COULD CAUSE A TEMPORARY COLLAPSE
OF THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL. A DEFINITIVE WEAKENING IS STILL EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK IN AN INCREASINGLY DRY ENVIRONMENT IN THE MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE AND WITH THE OMNIPRESENCE OF SHEAR.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 181826
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/05/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 18/05/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FABIEN) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3 S / 70.8 E
(NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 55
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/05/19 AT 06 UTC:
9.5 S / 69.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2023/05/19 AT 18 UTC:
9.7 S / 69.2 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 181244
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/10/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 18/05/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 8.9 S / 71.2 E
(HUIT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/3.0/W 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 993 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/05/2023 00 UTC: 9.3 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 280 SO: 205 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SO: 175 NO: 75

24H: 19/05/2023 12 UTC: 9.5 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SO: 215 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SO: 155 NO: 65

36H: 20/05/2023 00 UTC: 9.9 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 260 SO: 250 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SO: 155 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 20/05/2023 12 UTC: 10.3 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SO: 205 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 21/05/2023 00 UTC: 10.9 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 140 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

72H: 21/05/2023 12 UTC: 11.6 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 140 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/05/2023 12 UTC: 12.5 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SO: 195 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SO: 95 NO: 0

120H: 23/05/2023 12 UTC: 13.1 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SO: 195 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0 CI=3.0

LA STRUCTURE DE LA TEMPETE TROPICALE RESTE MAL DEFINI. EN LIEN AVEC
LE MINIMUM DIURNE DE LA CONVECTION, LE CENTRE A ETE TEMPORAIREMENT
COMPLETEMENT EXPOSE EN MILIEU DE JOURNEE. ENTRE 09Z ET 10Z,
L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE A REPRIS VIGOUREUSEMENT DANS LE QUADRANT
SUD-EST, OCCULTANT A NOUVEAU LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES. L'ESTMATION
D'INTENSITE EST BASEE SUR LES DERNIERES ESTIMATIONS SATELLITES
SUBJECTIVES ET OBJECTIVES QUI SONT PLUTOT EN BON ACCORD.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, LA PREVISION ACTUELLE RESTE DANS LA
PHILOSOPHIE PRECEDENTE EN ETANT UN PEU PLUS AU NORD SUR LES PREMIERES
ECHEANCES POUR TENIR COMPTE DE L'EVOLUTION RECENTE: FABIEN SE DIRIGE
ACTUELLEMENT VERS L'OUEST GUIDE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE GLISSANT
PLUS AU SUD DU SYSTEME. ENTRE VENDREDI ET SAMEDI, FABIEN SERA SOUMIS
A DES FLUX DIRECTEURS PLUS CONTRADICTOIRES ENTRE DEUX DORSALES, CE
QUI POURRAIT LE RENDRE TEMPORAIREMENT QUASI-STATIONNAIRE. AVEC
L'EFFACEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
ADOPTER UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-EST SOUS
L'INFLUENCE D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE. EN FIN DE PERIODE, AVEC
UN ABAISSEMENT ATTENDU DU NIVEAU DU FLUX DIRECTEUR, LA TRAJECTOIRE
DEVRAIT TENDRE A GRADUELLEMENT REVENIR VERS LE SUD-OUEST.

MALGRE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT RADICAL QU'A CONNU FABIEN AU COURS DES
DERNIERES 36H EN LIEN AVEC LE CISAILLEMENT (PROFOND ET MOYEN) ET LES
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC, LES MODELES CONTINUENT DE SUGGERER QU'UNE
AMELIORATION DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SUR CES ASPECTS EST
PROBABLE AU COURS DES DEUX A TROIS PROCHAINS JOURS. LES GUIDANCES LES
PLUS FIABLES SUGGERENT QUE FABIEN DEVRAIT OSCILLER ENTRE LE STADE DE
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ET DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ENTRE
MAINTENANT ET DIMANCHE SOIR. CETTE TENDANCE EST REFLETEE DANS LA
PREVISION OFFICIELLE CE QUI A AMENE A DES AJUSTEMENTS PAR RAPPORT A
LA PREVISION PRECEDENTE. LA CHRONOLOGIE RESTE PARTICULIERREMENT
DIFFICILE A ANTICIPER CONSIDERANT QU'EN PLUS, LE DEPLACEMENT TRES
LENT VOIRE QUASI-STATIONNAIRE ATTENDU VENDREDI SOIR ET UNE PARTIE DE
LA JOURNEE DE SAMEDI, POURRAIT OCCASIONNER UN EFFONDREMENT TEMPORAIRE
DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEFINITIF RESTE ATTENDU EN
PREMIERE PARTIE DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN
PLUS SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ET UNE OMNI-PRESENCE DE CISAILLEMENT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 181244
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/10/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION 2023/05/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.9 S / 71.2 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/3.0/W 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/05/19 00 UTC: 9.3 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 280 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 175 NW: 75

24H: 2023/05/19 12 UTC: 9.5 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SW: 155 NW: 65

36H: 2023/05/20 00 UTC: 9.9 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2023/05/20 12 UTC: 10.3 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2023/05/21 00 UTC: 10.9 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2023/05/21 12 UTC: 11.6 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/05/22 12 UTC: 12.5 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 0

120H: 2023/05/23 12 UTC: 13.1 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING
UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=3.0

THE STRUCTURE OF THE TROPICAL STORM REMAINS POORLY DEFINED. IN
CONNECTION WITH THE DIURNAL MINIMUM OF THE CONVECTION, THE CENTER WAS
TEMPORARILY COMPLETELY EXPOSED AROUND MID-DAY. BETWEEN 09Z AND 10Z,
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RESUMED VIGOROUSLY IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT,
OCCLUDING AGAIN THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED
ON THE LAST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES WHICH ARE
RATHER IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY, THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS IN THE PREVIOUS
PHILOSOPHY BY BEING A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE RECENT EVOLUTION: FABIEN IS CURRENTLY
HEADING WESTWARD GUIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SLIDING MORE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, FABIEN WILL BE SUBJECT TO
MORE CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS BETWEEN TWO RIDGES, WHICH COULD
MAKE IT TEMPORARILY QUASI-STATIONARY. WITH THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ADOPT A GENERAL
SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH AN EXPECTED LOWERING OF THE
LEVEL OF THE STEERING FLOW, THE TRACK SHOULD GRADUALLY BEND TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST.

DESPITE THE RADICAL WEAKENING THAT FABIEN HAS EXPERIENCED DURING THE
LAST 36H DUE TO THE SHEAR (DEEP AND MEDIUM) AND THE DRY AIR
INTRUSIONS, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT AN IMPROVEMENT OF THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ON THESE ASPECTS IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
TWO TO THREE DAYS. THE MOST RELIABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FABIEN
SHOULD FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
TREND IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH HAS LED TO
ADJUSTMENTS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE CHRONOLOGY REMAINS
PARTICULARLY DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE CONSIDERING THAT IN ADDITION,
THE VERY SLOW OR EVEN QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
EVENING AND PART OF SATURDAY, COULD CAUSE A TEMPORARY COLLAPSE OF THE
OCEANIC POTENTIAL. A DEFINITIVE WEAKENING IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK IN AN INCREASINGLY DRY ENVIRONMENT IN THE
MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE AND AN OMNIPRESENCE OF SHEAR.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 181224
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/05/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 18/05/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FABIEN) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.9 S / 71.2 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 55
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/05/19 AT 00 UTC:
9.3 S / 70.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2023/05/19 AT 12 UTC:
9.5 S / 69.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 180650
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/10/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 18/05/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 8.9 S / 71.8 E
(HUIT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.5/W 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 991 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 280 SO: 250 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SO: 215 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 18/05/2023 18 UTC: 9.3 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 270 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SO: 165 NO: 75

24H: 19/05/2023 06 UTC: 9.5 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 270 SO: 215 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SO: 155 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65

36H: 19/05/2023 18 UTC: 9.8 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 20/05/2023 06 UTC: 10.1 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SO: 215 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 155 NO: 95

60H: 20/05/2023 18 UTC: 10.6 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 240 SO: 195 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SO: 150 NO: 75

72H: 21/05/2023 06 UTC: 11.4 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/05/2023 06 UTC: 12.4 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 65

120H: 23/05/2023 06 UTC: 12.9 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SO: 220 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5 CI=3.5

LA TEMPETE TROPICALE FABIEN CONTINUE DE SOUFFRIR D'UNE CONTRAINTE
MODEREE DE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST QUI CONTINUE D'ADVECTER DE
L'AIR SEC AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION. LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE S'EST
FORTEMENT DEGRADEE DEPUI SLA FIN DE NUIT AVEC UNE CONVECTION
FLUCTUANTE ET DESORGANISEE QUI TENTE DE SE MAINTENIR PRES DU CENTRE
DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD DU SYSTEME. LA PASS ASCAT DE 0457Z A ETE
UTILE POUR PRECISER LA POSITION, L'INTENSITE ET LA STRUCTURE DU CHAMP
DE VENT DU SYSTEME.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, LA DISPERSION DES GUIIDANCES LES PLUS
FIABLES AUGMENTE SIGNIFICATIVEMENT AU-DELA DE 48H. A PARTIR DE CE
MOMENT, LA PREVISION ACTUELLE RESTE DANS LA PHILOSOPHIE PRECEDENTE
MAIS EST REVENUE UN PEU PLUS A L'EST ET EST PLUS LENTE: FABIEN SE
DIRIGE ACTUELLEMENT VERS L'OUEST ET VA PRENDRE UNE COMPOSANTE
OUEST-SUD-OUEST GUIDE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE GLISSANT PLUS AU
SUD DU SYSTEME. ENTRE VENDREDI ET SAMEDI, FABIEN SERA SOUMIS A DES
FLUX DIRECTEURS PLUS CONTRADICTOIRES ENTRE DEUX DORSALES, CE QUI
POURRAIT LE RENDRE TEMPORAIREMENT QUASI-STATIONNAIRE. L'INCERTITUDE
AUGMENTE A PARTIR DE CE WEEKEND, CAR, EN PLUS DE FLUX DIRECTEURS
COMPLEXES, LE DEPLACEMENT SERA AUSSI DEPENDANT DE L'INTENSITE REELLE
QU'AURA FABIEN.

LE CISAILLEMENT ACTUEL DEVRAIT SE RELACHER LA NUIT PROCHAINE ET
DEMAIN VENDREDI. EN PRESENCE D'UN BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, LES
CONDITIONS APPARAISSENT DONC FAVORABLES POUR UNE POSSIBLE REPRISE DE
L'INTENSIFICATION. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, LE RENFORCEMENT DU
CISAILLEMENT DE SUD-EST ET SURTOUT LE POSSIBLE EFFONDREMENT DU
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SOUS-JACENT EN RAISON DE LA QUASI-STATIONNARITE
DEVRAIENT CONDUIRE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT SIGNIFICATIF ET DEFINITIF A
PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, MALGRE LA REPRISE DU DEPLACEMENT DE FABIEN. LE
SYSTEME EVOLUERA VERS LE SUD EN DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT PUIS
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE EN PREMIERE PARTIE DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 180650
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/10/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION 2023/05/18 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.9 S / 71.8 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/W 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/05/18 18 UTC: 9.3 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 165 NW: 75

24H: 2023/05/19 06 UTC: 9.5 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65

36H: 2023/05/19 18 UTC: 9.8 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2023/05/20 06 UTC: 10.1 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 95

60H: 2023/05/20 18 UTC: 10.6 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 75

72H: 2023/05/21 06 UTC: 11.4 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/05/22 06 UTC: 12.4 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 65

120H: 2023/05/23 06 UTC: 12.9 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING
UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 220 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.5

TROPICAL STORM FABIEN SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SUFFER FROM A MODERATE
WESTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT THAT CONTINUES TO DRAW DRY AIR INTO THE
CIRCULATION. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS STRONGLY DEGRADED SINCE THE END OF
THE NIGHT WITH A FLUCTUATING AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION TRYING TO
MAINTAIN ITSELF NEAR THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
SYSTEM. THE ASCAT PASS OF 0457Z HAS BEEN USEFUL TO SPECIFY THE
POSITION, THE INTENSITY AND THE STRUCTURE OF THE WIND FIELD OF THE
SYSTEM.

IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY, THE DISPERSION OF THE MOST RELIABLE
GUIIDANCES INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 48H. FROM THEN ON, THE
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS IN THE PREVIOUS PHILOSOPHY BUT HAS RETURNED
A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND IS SLOWER: FABIEN IS CURRENTLY HEADING WEST
AND WILL TAKE A WEST-SOUTHWEST COMPONENT GUIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SLIDING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. BETWEEN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, FABIEN WILL BE SUBJECT TO MORE CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS
BETWEEN TWO RIDGES, WHICH COULD MAKE IT TEMPORARILY QUASI-STATIONARY.
THE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FROM THIS WEEKEND, BECAUSE, IN ADDITION TO
COMPLEX STEERING FLOWS, THE TRACK WILL ALSO DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL
INTENSITY OF FABIEN.

THE CURRENT SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO EASE NEXT NIGHT AND TOMORROW FRIDAY.
IN THE PRESENCE OF A GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL, THE CONDITIONS SEEM
FAVORABLE FOR A POSSIBLE RESUMPTION OF THE INTENSIFICATION. FROM
SATURDAY ONWARDS, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SOUTH-EAST SHEAR AND
ESPECIALLY THE POSSIBLE COLLAPSE OF THE UNDERLYING OCEANIC POTENTIAL
DUE TO THE QUASI-STATIONARITY SHOULD LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT AND
DEFINITIVE WEAKENING FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, DESPITE THE RESUMPTION OF
FABIEN'S MOVEMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE SOUTHWARD INTO A FILLING
DEPRESSION THEN A RESIDUAL DEPRESSION IN THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 180629
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/05/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 18/05/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FABIEN) 991 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.9 S / 71.8 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 330 NM IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 115 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 125 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 55
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/05/18 AT 18 UTC:
9.3 S / 71.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2023/05/19 AT 06 UTC:
9.5 S / 70.2 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 180031
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/10/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 18/05/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 8.9 S / 72.5 E
(HUIT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/W 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 986 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SO: 280 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 165 SO: 220 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SO: 70 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 18/05/2023 12 UTC: 9.2 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 270 SO: 240 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 165 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

24H: 19/05/2023 00 UTC: 9.5 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SO: 230 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 155 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 45

36H: 19/05/2023 12 UTC: 9.8 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 155 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 45

48H: 20/05/2023 00 UTC: 10.0 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SO: 205 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 150 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 45

60H: 20/05/2023 12 UTC: 10.1 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SO: 195 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 150 NO: 85

72H: 21/05/2023 00 UTC: 10.9 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 130 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/05/2023 00 UTC: 12.3 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 100

120H: 23/05/2023 00 UTC: 13.4 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, SE
DISSIPANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 230 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5+ CI=4.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST ENCORE
RECHAUFFEE MAIS IL SEMBLE QUE LE CENTRE SE PLACE UN PEU PLUS SOUS
CETTE ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE. C'EST CE QUE CONFIRMENT LES DERNIERE
IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE 2102UTC ET 2243UTC ET QUI MONTRENT AUSSI UN
AFFAIBLISSMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DU FAIT DE LA DIMINUTION DU DECALAGE
DE POSITION ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS NIVEAUX. L'ANALYSE EN T N'EVOLUE PAS
MAIS L'INTENSITE CONTINUE DE FAIBLIR LAISSANT DES VENTS ESTIMES DE
L'ORDRE DE 60KT. FABIEN EST DONC DECLASSE EN FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE.
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEVRAIT STOPPER DU FAIT DE LA DIMINUTION DU
CISAILLEMENT AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE AVEC TOUJOURS
BEAUCOUP DE DISPERSION AUX LONGUES ECHEANCES. FABIEN SE DIRIGE
ACTUELLEMENT VERS L'OUEST ET VA PRENDRE UNE COMPOSANTE
OUEST-SUD-OUEST GUIDE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE GLISSANT PLUS AU
SUD DU SYSTEME. ENTRE VENDREDI ET SAMEDI, FABIEN SERA SOUMIS A DES
FLUX DIRECTEURS PLUS CONTRADICTOIRES ENTRE DEUX DORSALES, CE QUI
POURRAIT LE RENDRE TEMPORAIREMENT QUASI-STATIONNAIRE. L'INCERTITUDE
AUGMENTE A PARTIR DE CE WEEKEND, CAR, EN PLUS DE FLUX DIRECTEURS
COMPLEXES, LE DEPLACEMENT SERA AUSSI DEPENDANT DE LA VITESSE
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. CELA SE TRADUIT PAR UNE HAUSSE
SIGNIFICATIVE DE LA DISPERSION AU SEIN DES MODELES NUMERIQUES EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE. LA TRAJECTOIRE CMRS ACTUELLE PRIVILEGIE LA DESCENTE VERS
LE SUD EN FIN D'ECHEANCE (PLUTOT QU'UN REBROUSSEMENT FRANC) SOUS
L'EFFET DE LA DISPARITION DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE.

L'INTENSITE DE FABIEN VA POURSUIVRE LA TENDANCE ACTUELLE C'EST-A-DIRE
UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT MODERE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 48H. AU COURS DE
CETTE PERIODE, UNE LEGERE REINTENSIFICATION EST POSSIBLE SOUS L'EFFET
DE LA BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE VENT ET D'UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE BIEN
PRESENT. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, LE RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE
SUD-EST ET SURTOUT LE POSSIBLE EFFONDREMENT DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
SOUS-JACENT EN RAISON DE LA QUASI-STATIONNARITE DEVRAIENT CONDUIRE A
UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT SIGNIFICATIF ET DEFINITIF A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE,
MALGRE LA REPRISE DU DEPLACEMENT DE FABIEN. LE SYSTEME EVOLUERA VERS
LE SUD EN DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT PUIS DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, FABIEN VA CONTOURNER L'ARCHIPEL DES
CHAGOS (DIEGO-GARCIA) PAR LE SUD A PRES DE 200 KM. SUR LE SCENARIO
ACTUEL, LES IMPACTS (VENTS, PLUIE ET MER) EN PERIPHERIE DU SYSTEME
RESTENT NON SIGNIFICATIFS.
FABIEN NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES AUTRES ILES DU BASSIN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 180031
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/10/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION 2023/05/18 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.9 S / 72.5 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SW: 280 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 165 SW: 220 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SW: 70 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/05/18 12 UTC: 9.2 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

24H: 2023/05/19 00 UTC: 9.5 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SW: 230 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 45

36H: 2023/05/19 12 UTC: 9.8 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 155 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 45

48H: 2023/05/20 00 UTC: 10.0 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 150 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 45

60H: 2023/05/20 12 UTC: 10.1 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 150 NW: 85

72H: 2023/05/21 00 UTC: 10.9 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 130 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/05/22 00 UTC: 12.3 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 100

120H: 2023/05/23 00 UTC: 13.4 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DISSIPATING
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 230 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5+ CI=4.0+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS WARMED UP AGAIN
BUT IT SEEMS THAT THE CENTER IS A BIT MORE UNDER THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE LAST MICROWAVE IMAGES OF 2102UTC
AND 2243UTC WHICH ALSO SHOW A WEAKENING OF THE SHEAR DUE TO THE
DECREASE OF THE POSITION OFFSET BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT LEVELS. THE
T-ANALYSIS DOES NOT EVOLVE BUT THE INTENSITY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
LEAVING ESTIMATED WINDS OF ABOUT 60KT. FABIEN IS THEREFORE DOWNGRADED
TO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM. THE WEAKENING SHOULD STOP BECAUSE OF THE
DECREASE OF THE SHEAR DURING THE NEXT HOURS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST WITH STILL A LOT OF
DISPERSION AT LONG RANGES. FABIEN IS CURRENTLY HEADING WEST AND WILL
TAKE A WEST-SOUTHWEST COMPONENT GUIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SLIDING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
FABIEN WILL BE SUBJECT TO MORE CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS BETWEEN
TWO RIDGES, WHICH COULD MAKE IT TEMPORARILY QUASI-STATIONARY. THE
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FROM THIS WEEKEND, BECAUSE, IN ADDITION TO
COMPLEX STEERING FLOWS, THE MOVEMENT WILL ALSO DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. THIS TRANSLATES INTO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN THE DISPERSION WITHIN THE NUMERICAL MODELS AT THE END OF THE TIME
SCALE. THE CURRENT RSMC TRACK FAVORS A SOUTHWARD DESCENT AT THE END
OF THE TIME SCALE (RATHER THAN A STRAIGHTFORWARD TURNAROUND) DUE TO
THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

FABIEN'S INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT TREND, I.E. A MODERATE
WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 48H. DURING THIS PERIOD, A SLIGHT
REINTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE DECREASE OF THE
WIND SHEAR AND A WELL PRESENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL. FROM SATURDAY, THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE SOUTH-EAST SHEAR AND ESPECIALLY THE POSSIBLE
COLLAPSE OF THE UNDERLYING OCEANIC POTENTIAL DUE TO THE
QUASI-STATIONARITY SHOULD LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT AND DEFINITIVE
WEAKENING FROM SUNDAY, IN SPITE OF THE RESUMPTION OF FABIEN'S
DISPLACEMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE SOUTHWARD INTO A FILLING LOW
THEN A REMNANT LOW.

IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, FABIEN WILL GO AROUND THE CHAGOS ARCHIPELAGO
(DIEGO-GARCIA) BY THE SOUTH, ABOUT 200 KM AWAY. IN THE CURRENT
SCENARIO, THE IMPACTS (WINDS, RAIN AND SEA) ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM REMAIN INSIGNIFICANT.
FABIEN DOES NOT POSE A THREAT TO THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BASIN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 180003
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/05/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 18/05/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FABIEN) 986 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.9 S / 72.5 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 290 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/05/18 AT 12 UTC:
9.2 S / 71.4 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2023/05/19 AT 00 UTC:
9.5 S / 70.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 171827
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/10/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 17/05/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.0 S / 73.0 E
(NEUF DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE TREIZE DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SO: 280 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 165 SO: 220 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SO: 70 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SO: 20 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 18/05/2023 06 UTC: 9.5 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 305 SO: 230 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 185 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

24H: 18/05/2023 18 UTC: 9.7 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 270 SO: 240 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 165 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 45

36H: 19/05/2023 06 UTC: 9.7 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 155 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 45

48H: 19/05/2023 18 UTC: 9.8 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SO: 240 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 130 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 45

60H: 20/05/2023 06 UTC: 10.0 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 260 SO: 205 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 75

72H: 20/05/2023 18 UTC: 10.5 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 130 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/05/2023 18 UTC: 11.9 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 85

120H: 22/05/2023 18 UTC: 13.2 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 215 NO: 95

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5 CI=4.5-

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE FABIEN OSCILLE ENTRE UNE CONFIGURATION
LEGEREMENT CISAILLEE ET UN CDO AVEC UN CENTRE SE LOCALISANT EN LIMITE
OUEST DE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE. LA PASSE ASCAT DE 1613UTC PERMET DE
VALIDER CETTE LOCALISATION EN LIMITE OUEST DE LA CONVECTION QUI RESTE
RELATIVEMENT CHAUDE. UNE ANALYSE DVORAK DE 3.5 EST POSSIBLE LAISSANT
FABIEN AU SEUIL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL PAR INERTIE AVEC UN CI DE 4.5- ET
DONC DES VENTS ESTIMES DE L'ORDRE DE 65KT.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, LA DERNIERE
TENDANCE DES MODELES PERSISTE AVEC TOUJOURS BEAUCOUP DE DISPERSION
AUX LONGUES ECHEANCES. FABIEN SE DIRIGE ACTUELLEMENT VERS LE
OUEST-SUD-OUEST ET AVEC L'ARRIVEE D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PAR LE
SUD-OUEST, LA TRAJECTOIRE S'ORIENTERA PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS L'OUEST.
ENTRE VENDREDI ET SAMEDI, FABIEN SERA SOUMIS A DES FLUX DIRECTEURS
PLUS CONTRADICTOIRES ENTRE DEUX DORSALES, CE QUI POURRAIT LE RENDRE
TEMPORAIREMENT QUASI-STATIONNAIRE. L'INCERTITUDE AUGMENTE A PARTIR DE
CE WEEKEND, CAR, EN PLUS DE FLUX DIRECTEURS COMPLEXES, LE DEPLACEMENT
SERA AUSSI DEPENDANT DE LA VITESSE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. CELA
SE TRADUIT PAR UNE HAUSSE SIGNIFICATIVE DE LA DISPERSION AU SEIN DES
MODELES NUMERIQUES EN FIN D'ECHEANCE. LA TRAJECTOIRE CMRS ACTUELLE
PRIVILEGIE LA DESCENTE VERS LE SUD EN FIN D'ECHEANCE PLUTOT QUE LE
REBROUSSEMENT SOUS L'EFFET DES FLUX DIRECTEURS DE BASSES COUCHES ET
DE LA DISPARITION DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE.

L'INTENSITE DE FABIEN VA POURSUIVRE LA TENDANCE ACTUELLE C'EST-A-DIRE
UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT MODERE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 48H. AU COURS DE
CETTE PERIODE, UNE LEGERE REINTENSIFICATION EST POSSIBLE SOUS L'EFFET
DE LA BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE VENT ET D'UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE BIEN
PRESENT. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, LE RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE
SUD-EST ET SURTOUT LE POSSIBLE EFFONDREMENT DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
SOUS-JACENT EN RAISON DE LA QUASI-STATIONNARITE DEVRAIENT CONDUIRE A
UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT SIGNIFICATIF ET DEFINITIF, MALGRE LA REPRISE DU
DEPLACEMENT DE FABIEN. LE SYSTEME EVOLUERA VERS LE SUD EN DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT PUIS DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, FABIEN VA CONTOURNER L'ARCHIPEL DES
CHAGOS (DIEGO-GARCIA) PAR LE SUD A PLUS DE 200 KM. SUR LE SCENARIO
ACTUEL, LES IMPACTS (VENTS, PLUIE ET MER) EN PERIPHERIE DU SYSTEME
RESTENT NON SIGNIFICATIFS.
FABIEN NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES AUTRES ILES DU BASSIN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 171827
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/10/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION 2023/05/17 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.0 S / 73.0 E
(NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SW: 280 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 165 SW: 220 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SW: 70 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/05/18 06 UTC: 9.5 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 305 SW: 230 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

24H: 2023/05/18 18 UTC: 9.7 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 45

36H: 2023/05/19 06 UTC: 9.7 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 45

48H: 2023/05/19 18 UTC: 9.8 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 45

60H: 2023/05/20 06 UTC: 10.0 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 75

72H: 2023/05/20 18 UTC: 10.5 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 130 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/05/21 18 UTC: 11.9 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 85

120H: 2023/05/22 18 UTC: 13.2 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 95

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.5-

THE FABIEN CLOUD PATTERN OSCILLATES BETWEEN A SLIGHTLY SHEARED
PATTERN AND A CDO PATTERN WITH A CENTER LOCATED AT THE WESTERN LIMIT
OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE 1613UTC ASCAT PASS VALIDATES THIS
LOCATION AT THE WESTERN LIMIT OF THE CONVECTION WHICH REMAINS
RELATIVELY WARM. A DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 3.5 IS POSSIBLE LEAVING FABIEN
AT THE THRESHOLD OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY INERTIA WITH A CI OF 4.5-
AND THUS ESTIMATED WINDS OF ABOUT 65KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK PREDICTIONS, THE LATEST MODEL TREND
PERSISTS WITH STILL A LOT OF LONG RANGE DISPERSION. FABIEN IS
CURRENTLY HEADING WEST-SOUTHWEST AND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST, THE TRACK WILL GRADUALLY TURN
WESTWARD. BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, FABIEN WILL BE SUBJECT TO MORE
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS BETWEEN TWO RIDGES, WHICH COULD MAKE IT
TEMPORARILY QUASI-STATIONARY. THE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FROM THIS
WEEKEND, BECAUSE, IN ADDITION TO COMPLEX STEERING FLOWS, THE MOVEMENT
WILL ALSO DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
TRANSLATES INTO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE DISPERSION WITHIN THE
NUMERICAL MODELS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE CURRENT RSMC TRACK
FAVORS A SOUTHWARD DESCENT AT THE END OF THE TIME SCALE RATHER THAN A
REVERSAL OF THE DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOWS AND THE
DISAPPEARANCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

FABIEN'S INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT TREND, I.E. A MODERATE
WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 48H. DURING THIS PERIOD, A SLIGHT
REINTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE DECREASE OF THE
WIND SHEAR AND A WELL PRESENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL. FROM SATURDAY, THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE SOUTHEAST SHEAR AND ESPECIALLY THE POSSIBLE
COLLAPSE OF THE UNDERLYING OCEANIC POTENTIAL DUE TO THE
QUASI-STATIONARITY SHOULD LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT AND DEFINITIVE
WEAKENING, DESPITE THE RESUMPTION OF FABIEN'S DISPLACEMENT. THE
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE SOUTHWARD INTO A FILLING LOW AND THEN A REMNANT
LOW.

IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, FABIEN WILL GO AROUND THE CHAGOS ARCHIPELAGO
(DIEGO-GARCIA) FROM THE SOUTH, MORE THAN 200 KM AWAY. IN THE CURRENT
SCENARIO, THE IMPACTS (WINDS, RAIN AND SEA) AT THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM REMAIN NO SIGNIFICANT.
FABIEN DOES NOT POSE A THREAT TO THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BASIN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 171801
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/05/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 17/05/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FABIEN) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.0 S / 73.0 E
(NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/05/18 AT 06 UTC:
9.5 S / 71.7 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2023/05/18 AT 18 UTC:
9.7 S / 70.5 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 171257
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/10/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 17/05/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.0 S / 73.3 E
(NEUF DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE TREIZE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 979 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SO: 205 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 18/05/2023 00 UTC: 9.4 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SO: 215 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SO: 165 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 65

24H: 18/05/2023 12 UTC: 9.7 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SO: 230 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 165 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 55

36H: 19/05/2023 00 UTC: 9.7 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SO: 155 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 55

48H: 19/05/2023 12 UTC: 9.8 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SO: 205 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 65

60H: 20/05/2023 00 UTC: 9.9 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SO: 205 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 110 SO: 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 65

72H: 20/05/2023 12 UTC: 10.2 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SO: 205 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 155 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/05/2023 12 UTC: 11.3 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 100

120H: 22/05/2023 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 95

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5+ CI=4.5

EN LIEN AVEC LE CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST PRESENT DEPUIS LA NUIT DERNIERE,
LA STRUCTURE DE FABIEN A CONTINUE DE SE DETERIORER AVEC L'APPARITION
D'UN TILT ENTRE LA CIRCULATION D'ALTITUDE ET DE SURFACE. CETTE
DERNIERE EST RESTE TEMPORAIREMENT PARTIELLEMENT EXPOSEE. LES SOMMETS
NUAGEUX SE SONT EGALEMENT NETTEMENT RECHAUFFES A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE.
L'INTENSITE ANALYSEE DE 70KT EST BASEE SUR LES ANALYSES DVORAK
SUBJECTIVES AINSI QUE PLUSIEURS DONNEES EXPERIMENTALES DU CIMSS.

SUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, LA PREVISION OFFICIELLE A ETE
LEGEREMENT DECALEE VERS L'OUEST COMPAREE A LA PREVISION PRECEDENTE
POUR TENIR COMPTE A LA FOIS DE L'EVOLUTION OBSERVEE ET DE LA DERNIERE
TENDANCE DES MODELES DE PREVISIONS.
FABIEN SE DIRIGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE DORSALE SITUEE
A L'EST. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, FABIEN DEVRAIT REDRESSER SA TRAJECTOIRE
VERS L'OUEST AVEC L'ARRIVEE D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PAR LE
SUD-OUEST. ENTRE VENDREDI ET SAMEDI, FABIEN SERA SOUMIS A DES FLUX
DIRECTEURS PLUS CONTRADICTOIRES ENTRE DEUX DORSALES, CE QUI POURRAIT
LE RENDRE TEMPORAIREMENT QUASI-STATIONNAIRE. L'INCERTITUDE AUGMENTE A
PARTIR DE CE WEEKEND, CAR, EN PLUS DE FLUX DIRECTEURS COMPLEXES, LE
DEPLACEMENT SERA AUSSI DEPENDANT DE LA VITESSE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU
SYSTEME. CELA SE TRADUIT PAR UNE HAUSSE SIGNIFICATIVE DE LA
DISPERSION AU SEIN DES MODELES NUMERIQUES EN FIN D'ECHEANCE. LA
TRAJECTOIRE CMRS ACTUELLE EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES PRINCIPAUX
MODELES.

LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE A ETE REVUE A LA BAISSE POUR TENIR COMPTE
AUSSI DE L'EVOLUTION RECENTE ET DE LA PERSISTANCE D'UNE CONTRAINTE DE
SECTEUR OUEST A COURTE ECHEANCE. NEANMOINS, JUSQU'A VENDREDI, LES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES (BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, HAUSSE DES
SST) DEVRAIENT PERMETTRE A FABIEN DE SE MAINTENIR A UN STADE
SIGNIFICATIF (PROBABLEMENT FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE). DES FLUCTUATION
D'INTENSITE SONT POSSIBLES SUR LA PERIODE. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, LE
RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE SUD-EST ET SURTOUT LE POSSIBLE
EFFONDREMENT DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SOUS-JACENT EN RAISON DE LA
QUASI-STATIONNARITE DEVRAIENT CONDUIRE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT
SIGNIFICATIF.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, FABIEN VA CONTOURNER L'ARCHIPEL DES
CHAGOS (DIEGO-GARCIA) PAR LE SUD A PLUS DE 200 KM. SUR LE SCENARIO
ACTUEL, LES IMPACTS (VENTS, PLUIE ET MER) EN PERIPHERIE DU SYSTEME
RESTENT NON SIGNIFICATIFS.
FABIEN NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES AUTRES ILES DU BASSIN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 171257
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/10/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION 2023/05/17 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.0 S / 73.3 E
(NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 979 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/05/18 00 UTC: 9.4 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 215 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65

24H: 2023/05/18 12 UTC: 9.7 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 55

36H: 2023/05/19 00 UTC: 9.7 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 55

48H: 2023/05/19 12 UTC: 9.8 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65

60H: 2023/05/20 00 UTC: 9.9 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65

72H: 2023/05/20 12 UTC: 10.2 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/05/21 12 UTC: 11.3 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 100

120H: 2023/05/22 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING
UP
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 95

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5+ CI=4.5

IN RELATION WITH THE WESTERLY SHEAR PRESENT SINCE LAST NIGHT, FABIEN
STRUCTURE KEPT ON DETERIORATING WITH THE APPEARANCE OF A TILT BETWEEN
THE UPPER AND LOWER CIRCULATION. THIS LLCC WAS EVEN PARTIALLY EXPOSED
TEMPORARILY. CLOUD TOPS GOT WARMER CLOSE TO THE CENTER. THE CURRENT
ANALYZED INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE LAST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS
AND SOME EXPERIMENTAL DATA FROM CIMSS.

ON THE TRACK FORECAST, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY
SHIFTED TO THE WEST COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT BOTH THE OBSERVED EVOLUTION AND THE LAST TREND OF THE
FORECAST MODELS.
FABIEN IS HEADING SOUTHWEST UNDER THE EFFECT OF A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST. FROM THURSDAY, FABIEN SHOULD STRAIGHTEN
ITS TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE WEST WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, FABIEN WILL BE
SUBJECT TO MORE CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS BETWEEN TWO RIDGES,
WHICH COULD MAKE IT TEMPORARILY QUASI-STATIONARY. THE UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES FROM THIS WEEKEND, BECAUSE, IN ADDITION TO COMPLEX STEERING
FLOWS, THE MOVEMENT WILL ALSO DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS TRANSLATES INTO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE DISPERSION
WITHIN THE NUMERICAL MODELS AT THE END OF THE TIME SCALE. THE CURRENT
RSMC TRAJECTORY IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MAIN MODELS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN REVISED DOWNWARDS TO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT THE RECENT EVOLUTION AND THE PERSISTENCE OF A WESTERLY
CONSTRAINT AT SHORT RANGE. NEVERTHELESS, UNTIL FRIDAY, THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (GOOD ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE, INCREASE OF SST)
SHOULD ALLOW FABIEN TO REMAIN AT A SIGNIFICANT STAGE (PROBABLY SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM). FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
PERIOD. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
SOUTH-EASTERLY SHEAR AND ESPECIALLY THE POSSIBLE COLLAPSE OF THE
UNDERLYING OCEANIC POTENTIAL DUE TO THE QUASI-STATIONARITY SHOULD
LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING.

IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, FABIEN WILL GO AROUND THE CHAGOS ARCHIPELAGO
(DIEGO-GARCIA) FROM THE SOUTH, MORE THAN 200 KM AWAY. IN THE CURRENT
SCENARIO, THE IMPACTS (WINDS, RAIN AND SEA) AT THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM REMAIN NO SIGNIFICANT.
FABIEN DOES NOT POSE A THREAT TO THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BASIN.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 170700
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 230517065236
2023051706 19S FABIEN 013 01 215 05 SATL SYNP 015
T000 088S 0738E 095 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 075 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 095S 0730E 090 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 098S 0720E 080 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 099S 0709E 080 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 099S 0702E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 098S 0697E 070 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 099S 0695E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 102S 0697E 045 R034 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 8.8S 73.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.8S 73.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 9.5S 73.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 9.8S 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 9.9S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 9.9S 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 9.8S 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 9.9S 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 10.2S 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 9.0S 73.6E.
17MAY23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 128
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023051706Z IS 969 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z
IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND
180900Z. //
1923051206 22S 896E 15
1923051212 24S 886E 15
1923051218 26S 876E 20
1923051300 28S 865E 25
1923051306 28S 856E 25
1923051312 33S 850E 30
1923051318 40S 842E 30
1923051400 43S 833E 35
1923051406 46S 822E 40
1923051412 47S 811E 50
1923051412 47S 811E 50
1923051418 50S 803E 60
1923051418 50S 803E 60
1923051500 51S 794E 65
1923051500 51S 794E 65
1923051500 51S 794E 65
1923051506 54S 784E 75
1923051506 54S 784E 75
1923051506 54S 784E 75
1923051512 55S 775E 85
1923051512 55S 775E 85
1923051512 55S 775E 85
1923051518 59S 767E 90
1923051518 59S 767E 90
1923051518 59S 767E 90
1923051600 62S 761E 90
1923051600 62S 761E 90
1923051600 62S 761E 90
1923051606 67S 755E 95
1923051606 67S 755E 95
1923051606 67S 755E 95
1923051612 73S 751E 100
1923051612 73S 751E 100
1923051612 73S 751E 100
1923051618 79S 745E 100
1923051618 79S 745E 100
1923051618 79S 745E 100
1923051700 84S 741E 95
1923051700 84S 741E 95
1923051700 84S 741E 95
1923051706 88S 738E 95
1923051706 88S 738E 95
1923051706 88S 738E 95
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 170700
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/10/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 17/05/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 8.8 S / 73.8 E
(HUIT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE TREIZE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SO: 205 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 70 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 17/05/2023 18 UTC: 9.4 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SO: 220 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SO: 165 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

24H: 18/05/2023 06 UTC: 9.8 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SO: 215 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SO: 175 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 18/05/2023 18 UTC: 9.9 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SO: 240 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SO: 175 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

48H: 19/05/2023 06 UTC: 9.8 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SO: 230 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

60H: 19/05/2023 18 UTC: 9.7 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SO: 205 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65

72H: 20/05/2023 06 UTC: 9.7 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SO: 215 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SO: 155 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/05/2023 06 UTC: 10.1 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 85

120H: 22/05/2023 06 UTC: 11.1 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 95

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5+ CI=5.0

L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES DISPONIBLES DEPUIS LA FIN DE NUIT MONTRE UNE
EROSION TRES CLAIRE DE LA PARTIE OUEST DU MUR DE L'OEIL,
VRAISEMBLABLEMENT SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE POURTANT
TRES MODEREE DE SECTEUR OUEST A SUD-OUEST MAIS PRESENTE EN
CISAILLEMENT PROFOND ET SURTOUT EN CISAILLEMENT MOYEN. LA
CONFIGURATION EN OEIL S'EST PLUS OU MOINS STABILISEE EN IMAGERIE IR
(AVEC UN DT FLUCTUANT ENTRE 4.5 ET 5.0), MAIS LES DERNIERES IMAGES
VISIBLES EN HAUTE RESOLUTION, MONTRENT QUE L'EROSION DU MUR OUEST
RESTE TRES SIGNIFICATIVE. L'INTENSITE FINALE EST ABAISSEE A 80 KT EN
BON ACCORD AVEC LES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES LES PLUS BASSES AINSI QUE
L'AIDT (85 KT A 06Z) ET LE SATCON (89 KT 1-MIN A 0302Z).

SUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, LA PREVISION OFFICIELLE A ETE
LEGEREMENT DECALEE VERS LE SUD ET EST PLUS LENTE COMPAREE A LA
PREVISION PRECEDENTE POUR TENIR COMPTE A LA FOIS DE L'EVOLUTION
OBSERVEE ET DE LA DERNIERE TENDANCE DES MODELES DE PREVISIONS.
FABIEN SE DIRIGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE DORSALE SITUEE
A L'EST. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, FABIEN DEVRAIT REDRESSER SA TRAJECTOIRE
VERS L'OUEST AVEC L'ARRIVEE D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PAR LE
SUD-OUEST. ENTRE VENDREDI ET SAMEDI, FABIEN SERA SOUMIS A DES FLUX
DIRECTEURS PLUS CONTRADICTOIRES ENTRE DEUX DORSALES, CE QUI POURRAIT
LE RENDRE TEMPORAIREMENT QUASI-STATIONNAIRE. L'INCERTITUDE AUGMENTE A
PARTIR DE CE WEEKEND, CAR, EN PLUS DE FLUX DIRECTEURS COMPLEXES, LE
DEPLACEMENT SERA AUSSI DEPENDANT DE LA VITESSE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU
SYSTEME. CELA SE TRADUIT PAR UNE HAUSSE SIGNIFICATIVE DE LA
DISPERSION AU SEIN DES MODELES NUMERIQUES EN FIN D'ECHEANCE. LA
TRAJECTOIRE CMRS ACTUELLE EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES PRINCIPAUX
MODELES.

LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE A ETE REVUE A LA BAISSE POUR TENIR COMPTE
AUSSI DE L'EVOLUTION RECENTE ET DE LA PERSISTANCE D'UNE CONTRAINTE DE
SECTEUR OUEST A MINIMA EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. NEANMOINS, JUSQU'A
VENDREDI, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES (BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE, HAUSSE DES SST) DEVRAIENT PERMETTRE A FABIEN DE SE
MAINTENIR A UN STADE MATURE (VRAISEMBLABLEMENT AU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL). DES FLUCTUATION D'INTENSITE SONT POSSIBLES SUR LA PERIODE.
EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, LE RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE SUD-EST ET
SURTOUT LE POSSIBLE EFFONDREMENT DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SOUS-JACENT
EN RAISON DE LA QUASI-STATIONNARITE DEVRAIENT CONDUIRE A UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT SIGNIFICATIF.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, FABIEN VA CONTOURNER L'ARCHIPEL DES
CHAGOS (DIEGO-GARCIA) PAR LE SUD A PLUS DE 200 KM. SUR LE SCENARIO
ACTUEL, LES IMPACTS (VENTS, PLUIE ET MER) EN PERIPHERIE DU SYSTEME
RESTENT NON SIGNIFICATIFS.
FABIEN NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES AUTRES ILES DU BASSIN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 170700
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/10/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION 2023/05/17 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.8 S / 73.8 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/05/17 18 UTC: 9.4 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2023/05/18 06 UTC: 9.8 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SW: 215 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2023/05/18 18 UTC: 9.9 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 175 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2023/05/19 06 UTC: 9.8 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

60H: 2023/05/19 18 UTC: 9.7 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 205 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65

72H: 2023/05/20 06 UTC: 9.7 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/05/21 06 UTC: 10.1 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 85

120H: 2023/05/22 06 UTC: 11.1 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING
UP
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 95

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5+ CI=5.0

THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY AVAILABLE SINCE THE END OF THE NIGHT SHOWS A
VERY CLEAR EROSION OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE EYE WALL, PROBABLY
UNDER THE EFFECT OF A VERY MODERATE SHEAR CONSTRAINT FROM WEST TO
SOUTH-WEST BUT PRESENT IN DEEP SHEAR AND ESPECIALLY IN MID-SHEAR. THE
EYE CONFIGURATION HAS MORE OR LESS STABILIZED IN IR IMAGERY (WITH A
DT FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 4.5 AND 5.0), BUT THE LAST VISIBLE HIGH
RESOLUTION IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EROSION OF THE WESTERN WALL REMAINS
VERY SIGNIFICANT. THE FINAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 80 KT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LOWEST SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AS WELL AS THE AIDT
(85 KT AT 06Z) AND THE SATCON (89 KT 1-MIN AT 0302Z).

ON THE TRACK FORECAST, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY
SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND IS SLOWER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT BOTH THE OBSERVED EVOLUTION AND THE LAST TREND
OF THE FORECAST MODELS.
FABIEN IS HEADING SOUTHWEST UNDER THE EFFECT OF A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST. FROM THURSDAY, FABIEN SHOULD STRAIGHTEN
ITS TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE WEST WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, FABIEN WILL BE
SUBJECT TO MORE CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS BETWEEN TWO RIDGES,
WHICH COULD MAKE IT TEMPORARILY QUASI-STATIONARY. THE UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES FROM THIS WEEKEND, BECAUSE, IN ADDITION TO COMPLEX STEERING
FLOWS, THE MOVEMENT WILL ALSO DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS TRANSLATES INTO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE DISPERSION
WITHIN THE NUMERICAL MODELS AT THE END OF THE TIME SCALE. THE CURRENT
RSMC TRAJECTORY IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MAIN MODELS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN REVISED DOWNWARDS TO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT THE RECENT EVOLUTION AND THE PERSISTENCE OF A WESTERLY
CONSTRAINT AT MINIMUM IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE. NEVERTHELESS, UNTIL
FRIDAY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (GOOD ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE,
INCREASE OF SST) SHOULD ALLOW FABIEN TO REMAIN AT A MATURE STAGE
(PROBABLY AT THE STAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE). FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE PERIOD. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE SOUTH-EAST SHEAR AND ESPECIALLY THE POSSIBLE
COLLAPSE OF THE UNDERLYING OCEANIC POTENTIAL DUE TO THE
QUASI-STATIONARITY SHOULD LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING.

IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, FABIEN WILL GO AROUND THE CHAGOS ARCHIPELAGO
(DIEGO-GARCIA) FROM THE SOUTH, MORE THAN 200 KM AWAY. IN THE CURRENT
SCENARIO, THE IMPACTS (WINDS, RAIN AND SEA) AT THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM REMAIN NO SIGNIFICANT.
FABIEN DOES NOT POSE A THREAT TO THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BASIN.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 170900
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 230517065236
2023051706 19S FABIEN 013 01 215 05 SATL SYNP 015
T000 088S 0738E 095 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 075 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 095S 0730E 090 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 098S 0720E 080 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 099S 0709E 080 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 099S 0702E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 098S 0697E 070 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 099S 0695E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 102S 0697E 045 R034 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 8.8S 73.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.8S 73.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 9.5S 73.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 9.8S 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 9.9S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 9.9S 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 9.8S 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 9.9S 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 10.2S 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 9.0S 73.6E.
17MAY23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 128
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023051706Z IS 969 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z
IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND
180900Z. //
1923051206 22S 896E 15
1923051212 24S 886E 15
1923051218 26S 876E 20
1923051300 28S 865E 25
1923051306 28S 856E 25
1923051312 33S 850E 30
1923051318 40S 842E 30
1923051400 43S 833E 35
1923051406 46S 822E 40
1923051412 47S 811E 50
1923051412 47S 811E 50
1923051418 50S 803E 60
1923051418 50S 803E 60
1923051500 51S 794E 65
1923051500 51S 794E 65
1923051500 51S 794E 65
1923051506 54S 784E 75
1923051506 54S 784E 75
1923051506 54S 784E 75
1923051512 55S 775E 85
1923051512 55S 775E 85
1923051512 55S 775E 85
1923051518 59S 767E 90
1923051518 59S 767E 90
1923051518 59S 767E 90
1923051600 62S 761E 90
1923051600 62S 761E 90
1923051600 62S 761E 90
1923051606 67S 755E 95
1923051606 67S 755E 95
1923051606 67S 755E 95
1923051612 73S 751E 100
1923051612 73S 751E 100
1923051612 73S 751E 100
1923051618 79S 745E 100
1923051618 79S 745E 100
1923051618 79S 745E 100
1923051700 84S 741E 95
1923051700 84S 741E 95
1923051700 84S 741E 95
1923051706 88S 738E 95
1923051706 88S 738E 95
1923051706 88S 738E 95
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 8.8S 73.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.8S 73.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 9.5S 73.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 9.8S 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 9.9S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 9.9S 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 9.8S 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 9.9S 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 10.2S 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 9.0S 73.6E.
17MAY23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 128
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023051706Z IS 969 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z
IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND
180900Z. //
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 170627
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/05/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 17/05/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FABIEN) 970 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.8 S / 73.8 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/05/17 AT 18 UTC:
9.4 S / 73.0 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2023/05/18 AT 06 UTC:
9.8 S / 71.9 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 170038
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/10/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 17/05/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 8.2 S / 74.1 E
(HUIT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 962 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SO: 240 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 90 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 17/05/2023 12 UTC: 9.1 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 345 SO: 240 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 175 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

24H: 18/05/2023 00 UTC: 9.6 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SO: 230 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 165 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

36H: 18/05/2023 12 UTC: 9.7 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SO: 250 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 155 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

48H: 19/05/2023 00 UTC: 9.6 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SO: 250 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SO: 165 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

60H: 19/05/2023 12 UTC: 9.6 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SO: 240 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

72H: 20/05/2023 00 UTC: 9.5 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 285 SO: 240 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/05/2023 00 UTC: 9.7 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SO: 220 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 75

120H: 22/05/2023 00 UTC: 10.6 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 175 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5+ CI=5.5

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, FABIEN A GARDE UNE CONFIGURATION
EN OEIL BIEN DEFINIE, AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX QUI SE SONT UN PEU
RECHAUFFES. LE DT MOYEN SUR 3H S'EST PAR CONSEQUENT ABAISSE A 4.5+.
LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES SEMBLENT MONTRER UNE TRES LEGERE
EROSION DU MUR DE L'OEIL ET UNE STRUCTURE UN PEU MOINS SYMETRIQUE,
MALGRE UN ANNEAU CENTRAL ENCORE SOLIDE. PAR INERTIE, L'INTENSITE EST
LAISSEE A 90KT.

FABIEN SE DIRIGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE DORSALE SITUEE
A L'EST. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, FABIEN DEVRAIT REDRESSER SA TRAJECTOIRE
VERS L'OUEST AVEC L'ARRIVEE D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PAR LE
SUD-OUEST. ENTRE VENDREDI ET SAMEDI, FABIEN SERA SOUMIS A DES FLUX
DIRECTEURS PLUS CONTRADICTOIRES ENTRE DEUX DORSALES, CE QUI POURRAIT
LE RENDRE TEMPORAIREMENT QUASI-STATIONNAIRE. L'INCERTITUDE AUGMENTE A
PARTIR DE CE WEEKEND, CAR, EN PLUS DE FLUX DIRECTEURS COMPLEXES, LE
DEPLACEMENT SERA AUSSI DEPENDANT DE LA VITESSE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU
SYSTEME. CELA SE TRADUIT PAR UNE HAUSSE DE LA DISPERSION AU SEIN DES
MODELES NUMERIQUES EN FIN D'ECHEANCE. LA TRAJECTOIRE CMRS ACTUELLE
EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES PRINCIPAUX MODELES.

FABIEN RESTE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT FAVORABLE CE MERCREDI, QUI
POURRAIT L'AIDER A MAINTENIR PLUS OU MOINS SON INTENSITE ACTUELLE.
DURANT LES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RESTER DANS DES
CONDITIONS PLUTOT FAVORABLES HORMIS LA PRESENCE D'UN FAIBLE
CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST-SUD-OUEST MERCREDI/JEUDI. DE PLUS, UN CYCLE DE
REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL EST POSSIBLE A PLUS OU MOINS COURT
TERME. MEME S'IL S'AFFAIBLIT UN PEU, IL DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR A MINIMA
AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, LE RENFORCEMENT DU
CISAILLEMENT DE SUD-EST ET SURTOUT LE POSSIBLE EFFONDREMENT DU
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SOUS-JACENT EN RAISON DE LA QUASI-STATIONNARITE
DEVRAIENT CONDUIRE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT SIGNIFICATIF.

FABIEN EST EN TRAIN DE PASSER AU PLUS PRES DE DIEGO-GARCIA, A UNE
DISTANCE DE 200 KM AU SECTEUR SUD-EST, CE QUI LE LAISSE A L'ECART DES
VENTS LES PLUS FORTS. FABIEN NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES
AUTRES ILES DU BASSIN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 170038
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/10/20222023
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION 2023/05/17 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.2 S / 74.1 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 90 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/05/17 12 UTC: 9.1 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 345 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2023/05/18 00 UTC: 9.6 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SW: 230 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2023/05/18 12 UTC: 9.7 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2023/05/19 00 UTC: 9.6 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SW: 250 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

60H: 2023/05/19 12 UTC: 9.6 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2023/05/20 00 UTC: 9.5 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/05/21 00 UTC: 9.7 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 75

120H: 2023/05/22 00 UTC: 10.6 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5+ CI=5.5

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, FABIEN HAS KEPT A WELL DEFINED EYE
PATTERN, ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE SLIGHTLY WARMED UP. THE 3-HOUR
AVERAGED DT HAS THUS DROPPED TO 4.5+. THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES
SEEM TO SHOW A VERY SLIGHT EROSION OF THE EYEWALL AND A SLIGHTLY LESS
SYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE, DESPITE A STILL SOLID CENTRAL CORE. BY
INERTIA, THE INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 90KT.

FABIEN IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE TO ITS
EAST. FROM THURSDAY, IT SHOULD TURN WESTWARDS AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, FABIEN SHOULD
BE UNDER CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS, BETWEEN TWO RIDGES, WHICH
COULD MAKE IT ALMOST STATIONARY FOR A WHILE. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
FROM THIS WEEKEND DUE TO COMPLEX STEERING FLOWS AND GIVEN THAT THE
MOVEMENT WILL DEPEND ON THE SYSTEM'S WEAKENING RATE. THIS TRANSLATES
INTO AN INCREASING DISPERSION WITHIN NUMERICAL MODELS IN THE LONG
TERM. THE CURRENT RSMC TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MAIN MODELS.

FABIEN REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS WEDNESDAY, WHICH
SHOULD ENABLE IT TO MORE OR LESS KEEP ITS CURRENT INTENSITY. DURING
THE NEXT 3 DAYS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN IN RATHER FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE
AT SOME POINT. EVEN IF IT WEAKENS A BIT, IT SHOULD AT LEAST REMAIN AT
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. LATER ON, INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND
ESPECIALLY THE POSSIBLE COLLAPSE OF THE UNDERLYING OCEANIC POTENTIAL
DUE TO QUASI-STATIONARITY SHOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING.

FABIEN IS CURRENTLY TRACKING AT ITS NEAREST DISTANCE FROM
DIEGO-GARCIA, AT ABOUT 200 KM TO THE SOUTHEAST, LEAVING IT OUT OF
REACH OF THE STRONGEST WINDS. FABIEN POSES NO THREAT TO OTHER ISLANDS
IN THE BASIN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 170018
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/05/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 17/05/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FABIEN) 962 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.2 S / 74.1 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 450 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN QUADRANTS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/05/17 AT 12 UTC:
9.1 S / 73.2 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2023/05/18 AT 00 UTC:
9.6 S / 72.1 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 162100
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 230516190638
2023051618 19S FABIEN 011 01 230 11 SATL 015
T000 080S 0743E 100 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 075 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 090S 0732E 100 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 095S 0724E 095 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 097S 0714E 090 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 097S 0703E 090 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 094S 0691E 085 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 093S 0689E 075 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 091S 0687E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 8.0S 74.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.0S 74.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 9.0S 73.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 9.5S 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 9.7S 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 9.7S 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 9.4S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 9.3S 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 9.1S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 8.3S 74.0E.
16MAY23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023051618Z IS 963 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z
IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z.//
1923051206 22S 896E 15
1923051212 24S 886E 15
1923051218 26S 876E 20
1923051300 28S 865E 25
1923051306 28S 856E 25
1923051312 33S 850E 30
1923051318 40S 842E 30
1923051400 43S 833E 35
1923051406 46S 822E 40
1923051412 47S 811E 50
1923051412 47S 811E 50
1923051418 50S 803E 60
1923051418 50S 803E 60
1923051500 51S 794E 65
1923051500 51S 794E 65
1923051500 51S 794E 65
1923051506 54S 784E 75
1923051506 54S 784E 75
1923051506 54S 784E 75
1923051512 55S 775E 85
1923051512 55S 775E 85
1923051512 55S 775E 85
1923051518 59S 767E 90
1923051518 59S 767E 90
1923051518 59S 767E 90
1923051600 62S 761E 90
1923051600 62S 761E 90
1923051600 62S 761E 90
1923051606 67S 755E 95
1923051606 67S 755E 95
1923051606 67S 755E 95
1923051612 73S 751E 100
1923051612 73S 751E 100
1923051612 73S 751E 100
1923051618 80S 743E 100
1923051618 80S 743E 100
1923051618 80S 743E 100
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 8.0S 74.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.0S 74.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 9.0S 73.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 9.5S 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 9.7S 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 9.7S 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 9.4S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 9.3S 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 9.1S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 8.3S 74.0E.
16MAY23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023051618Z IS 963 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z
IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 161839
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/10/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 16/05/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 7.9 S / 74.5 E
(SEPT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 962 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SO: 240 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 90 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 17/05/2023 06 UTC: 8.9 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 335 SO: 230 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 175 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

24H: 17/05/2023 18 UTC: 9.6 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SO: 230 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 165 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 18/05/2023 06 UTC: 9.7 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 315 SO: 230 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 165 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 18/05/2023 18 UTC: 9.7 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SO: 250 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

60H: 19/05/2023 06 UTC: 9.6 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SO: 260 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 165 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

72H: 19/05/2023 18 UTC: 9.4 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SO: 250 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 165 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/05/2023 18 UTC: 9.2 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SO: 230 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 65

120H: 21/05/2023 18 UTC: 9.4 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 230 SO: 155 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 75

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, FABIEN A GARDE UNE CONFIGURATION
EN OEIL BIEN DEFINIE. L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE A VARIE ENTRE 5.0
ET 6.0 AVEC UN MAXIMUM AUTOUR DE 15UTC, DONNANT UN DT MOYEN SUR 6H DE
5.5. SUR LES TOUTES DERNIERES IMAGES, L'ANNEAU DE CONVECTION FROIDE
EST DEVENU UN PEU MOINS SOLIDE, FAISANT REDESCENDRE LE DT INSTANTANE
VERS 5.0 VOIRE 4.5. LE FT, BASE SUR LE DT MOYEN SUR 6H, EST DONC
ETABLI A 5.5, SUGGERANT UNE INTENSITE A 90KT. CELLE-CI EST CONFIRMEE
PAR UNE PASSE SAR RCM A 1323Z ET PAR LES ESTIMATIONS AIDT ET SATCON.
CES DONNEES SUGGERENT AUSSI QUE L'INTENSITE A 12UTC ETAIT
PROBABLEMENT DEJA A AU MOINS 85KT. L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES (SSMIS-F16
A 1211Z) CONFIRME AUSSI UN ANNEAU CONVECTIF INTERNE SOLIDE ET
SYMETRIQUE, MAIS AVEC AUSSI LA CONSTITUTION DE BANDES SECONDAIRES, CE
QUI POURRAIT ETRE LES PREMICES D'UN FUTUR CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU
MUR DE L'OEIL. LE PIC D'INTENSITE SEMBLE DONC ETRE EN COURS OU A
VENIR DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES.

EN ATTEIGNANT LA BARRE DES 90KT, FABIEN ECRIT AINSI UNE PAGE DE
L'HISTOIRE DU BASSIN SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN, DEVENANT LE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE LE PLUS TARDIF AU COURS D'UNE SAISON CYCLONIQUE, 6
JOURS PLUS TARD QUE LILA (EX-BILLY) QUI AVAIT ETE CTI LE 10 MAI 1986
(INTENSITE MAX REANALYSEE A 100KT).

FABIEN SE DIRIGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE DORSALE SITUEE
A L'EST. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, FABIEN DEVRAIT REDRESSER SA TRAJECTOIRE
VERS L'OUEST AVEC L'ARRIVEE D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PAR LE
SUD-OUEST, TOUT EN RALENTISSANT. ENTRE VENDREDI ET SAMEDI, FABIEN
SERA SOUMIS A DES FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES ENTRE DEUX
DORSALES, CE QUI POURRAIT LE RENDRE STATIONNAIRE. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE,
L'INCERTITUDE AUGMENTE CAR LE DEPLACEMENT SERA DEPENDANT DE LA
VITESSE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. PLUS LE SYSTEME SERA INTENSE,
PLUS LE FLUX DIRECTEUR D'OUEST POURRAIT PRENDRE LE DESSUS. CELA SE
TRADUIT PAR UNE DISPERSION AU SEIN DES MODELES NUMERIQUES PLUS FORTE
A LONG TERME. LA TRAJECTOIRE CMRS ACTUELLE EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES
PRINCIPAUX MODELES.

FABIEN POURRAIT CONTINUER DE S'INTENSIFIER UN PEU DANS LES PROCHAINES
HEURES DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT FAVORABLE. DURANT LES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS,
LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RESTER DANS DES CONDITIONS PLUTOT FAVORABLES
HORMIS LA PRESENCE D'UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST-SUD-OUEST
MERCREDI/JEUDI. DE PLUS, UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL
EST POSSIBLE A PLUS OU MOINS COURT TERME. MEME S'IL S'AFFAIBLIT UN
PEU, IL DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR A MINIMA AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL.
EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, LE RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE SUD-EST ET
SURTOUT LE POSSIBLE EFFONDREMENT DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SOUS-JACENT
EN RAISON DE LA STATIONNARITE, DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT
SIGNIFICATIF.

FABIEN SE SITUE ACTUELLEMENT A 250 KM A L'EST-SUD-EST DE
DIEGO-GARCIA, ET DEVRAIT PASSER A PRES DE 200 KM DE L'ILE DANS LES
PROCHAINES HEURES, LA LAISSANT A L'ECART DES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS.
FABIEN NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES AUTRES ILES DU BASSIN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 161839
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/10/20222023
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION 2023/05/16 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.9 S / 74.5 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 90 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/05/17 06 UTC: 8.9 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 335 SW: 230 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2023/05/17 18 UTC: 9.6 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SW: 230 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2023/05/18 06 UTC: 9.7 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 315 SW: 230 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2023/05/18 18 UTC: 9.7 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

60H: 2023/05/19 06 UTC: 9.6 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2023/05/19 18 UTC: 9.4 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SW: 250 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 165 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/05/20 18 UTC: 9.2 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 65

120H: 2023/05/21 18 UTC: 9.4 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 230 SW: 155 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 75

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, FABIEN HAS KEPT A WELL DEFINED EYE
PATTERN. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS HAS VARIED BETWEEN 5.0 AND 6.0
WITH A MAXIMUM AROUND 15UTC, GIVING AN 6H-AVERAGED DT OF 5.5. ON THE
VERY LAST IMAGES, THE COLD CONVECTION RING HAS BECOME A BIT LESS
SOLID, BRINGING THE INSTANT DT DOWN TO 5.0 OR 4.5. THE FT, BASED ON
THE 6H-AVERAGED DT, IS THUS SET AT 5.5, SUGGESTING MAX WINDS UP TO
90KT. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY A SAR RCM PASS AT 1323Z AND BY AIDT AND
SATCON ESTIMATES. THESE DATA ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE 12Z INTENSITY WAS
PROBABLY ALREADY AT LEAST 85KT. MICROWAVE IMAGERY (SSMIS-F16 AT
1211Z) ALSO CONFIRMS A SOLID AND SYMMETRICAL INNER CONVECTIVE RING,
BUT WITH ALSO THE CONSTITUTION OF SECONDARY BANDS, WHICH COULD BE THE
FIRST SIGNS OF A FUTURE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE INTENSITY PEAK
SEEMS TO BE IN PROGRESS OR TO COME IN THE NEXT HOURS.

FABIEN IS THUS REWRITTING A PAGE OF THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN
BASIN'S HISTORY, BY REACHING INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE AT THE
LATEST DATE OF THE CYCLONIC SEASON, 6 DAYS LATER THAN LILA (EX-BILLY)
WHICH WAS CLASSIFIED ITC ON MAY 10, 1986 (MAXIMUM INTENSITY
REANALYZED AT 100KT).

FABIEN IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE TO ITS
EAST. FROM THURSDAY, IT SHOULD TURN WESTWARDS AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST, WHILE SLOWING DOWN. THIS WEEKEND, FABIEN
SHOULD BE UNDER CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS, BETWEEN TWO RIDGES,
WHICH COULD MAKE IT STATIONARY. AT LONGER RANGE, UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES AS THE MOVEMENT WILL DEPEND ON THE SYSTEM'S WEAKENING RATE.
THE MORE INTENSE THE SYSTEM WILL BE, THE MORE THE WESTERLY FLOW COULD
TAKE OVER. THIS TRANSLATES INTO A STRONGER DISPERSION WITHIN
NUMERICAL MODELS IN THE LONG TERM. THE CURRENT RSMC TRACK IS A
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MAIN MODELS.

FABIEN COULD CONTINUE TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
REMAIN IN RATHER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE. EVEN IF IT WEAKENS A BIT, IT
SHOULD AT LEAST REMAIN AT TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. LATER ON, THE
STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND ESPECIALLY THE POSSIBLE
COLLAPSE OF THE UNDERLYING OCEANIC POTENTIAL DUE TO STATIONARITY,
SHOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING.

FABIEN IS CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 250 KM TO THE EAST-SOUTH-EAST OF
DIEGO-GARCIA, AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AT ALMOST 200 KM FROM THE
ISLAND IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, LEAVING IT OUT OF THE STRONGEST WINDS.
FABIEN POSES NO THREAT TO OTHER ISLANDS IN THE BASIN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 161810
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/05/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 16/05/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FABIEN) 962 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.9 S / 74.5 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 210 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE WESTERN SECTOR AND LOCALLY UP TO 500 NM IN THE
EASTERN SECTOR.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/05/17 AT 06 UTC:
8.9 S / 73.5 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2023/05/17 AT 18 UTC:
9.6 S / 72.5 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 161245
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/10/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 16/05/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 7.2 S / 75.0 E
(SEPT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 974 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SO: 195 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 80 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 17/05/2023 00 UTC: 8.5 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SO: 230 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 17/05/2023 12 UTC: 9.3 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SO: 240 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 155 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 18/05/2023 00 UTC: 9.6 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SO: 220 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 18/05/2023 12 UTC: 9.7 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SO: 215 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

60H: 19/05/2023 00 UTC: 9.6 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SO: 250 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

72H: 19/05/2023 12 UTC: 9.4 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SO: 240 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/05/2023 12 UTC: 9.1 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 230 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 150 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 75

120H: 21/05/2023 12 UTC: 9.2 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SO: 195 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 85

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0

AU COUR DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE FABIEN
A PERSISTE MAIS SANS ETRE FRANCHE. DEPUIS 11Z CEPENDANT, UN OEIL BIEN
MIEUX DEFINI S'EST FORME. CELA EST CONFIRME PAR LES DONNEES
MICRO-ONDES SSMIS DE 1211Z QUI TEMOIGNENT D'UN ANNEAU CONVECTIF TRES
MARQUE. L'ANALYSE DE 12Z EST BASE SUR UNE MOYENNE DES ANALYSES DVORAK
SUBJECTIVES SUR LES 3 DERNIERES HEURES (4.5 A 5.5). MAIS CETTE
DERNIERE POURRAIT ETRE UN PEU CONSERVATRICE AU VU DE LA TENDANCE
RECENTE ET DES DERNIERES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES.

PEU DE CHANGEMENTS EN PREVISION. FABIEN COMMENCE A SE DIRIGER VERS LE
SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE DORSALE SITUEE A L'EST. EN COURS DE
SEMAINE, FABIEN DEVRAIT REDRESSER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST AVEC
L'ARRIVEE D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PAR LE SUD-EST, TOUT EN
RALENTISSANT. VENDREDI, CETTE DORSALE DEVRAIT RAPIDEMENT DISPARAITRE
PLACANT LE SYSTEME AU SEIN DE FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES, ENTRE
DEUX DORSALES. FABIEN POURRAIT RESTER ALORS STATIONNAIRE. EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE, L'INCERTITUDE DEVIENT PLUS IMPORTANTE, CAR LE DEPLACEMENT
SERA DEPENDANT DE LA VITESSE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. PLUS LE
SYSTEME SERA INTENSE, PLUS LE FLUX DIRECTEUR D'OUEST POURRAIT PRENDRE
LE DESSUS. CELA SE TRADUIT PAR UNE DISPERSION AU SEIN DES MODELES
NUMERIQUES PLUS FORTE A LONG TERME. LA TRAJECTOIRE CMRS ACTUELLE EST
UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES PRINCIPAUX MODELES.

CONCERNANT SON INTENSITE, FABIEN DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE S'INTENSIFIER
DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT FAVORABLE, IL DONC
POURRAIT ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. DURANT LES 3
PROCHAINS JOURS, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RESTER DANS DES CONDITIONS PLUTOT
FAVORABLES HORMIS LA PRESENCE D'UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT
D'OUEST-SUD-OUEST MERCREDI/JEUDI. UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE
L'OEIL EST POSSIBLE. IL DEVRAIT ALORS SE MAINTENIR A MINIMA AU STADE
DE CYCLONE TROPICAL. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, LE RENFORCEMENT DU
CISAILLEMENT DE SUD-EST ET SURTOUT LE POSSIBLE EFFONDREMENT DU
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SOUS-JACENT EN RAISON DE LA STATIONNARITE,
DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT SIGNIFICATIF.

FABIEN SE SITUE ACTUELLEMENT A MOINS DE 300KM A L'EST DE
DIEGO-GARCIA, ET DEVRAIT PASSER A PRES DE 200KM DE L'ILE, LA LAISSANT
A L'ECART DES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS. FABIEN NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE
POUR LES AUTRES ILES DU BASSIN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 161245
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/10/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION 2023/05/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.2 S / 75.0 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/05/17 00 UTC: 8.5 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2023/05/17 12 UTC: 9.3 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2023/05/18 00 UTC: 9.6 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2023/05/18 12 UTC: 9.7 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SW: 215 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

60H: 2023/05/19 00 UTC: 9.6 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2023/05/19 12 UTC: 9.4 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/05/20 12 UTC: 9.1 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75

120H: 2023/05/21 12 UTC: 9.2 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 85

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, FABIEN'S EYE PATTERN HAS PERSISTED BUT
WITHOUT GETTING CLEARER AT FIRST. SINCE 11Z HOWEVER, A MUCH BETTER
DEFINED EYE HAS FORMED. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE 1211Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE DATA WHICH SHOW A VERY MARKED CONVECTIVE RING. THE 12Z
ANALYSIS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES
OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS (4.5 TO 5.5). BUT THIS MAY BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE IN VIEW OF THE RECENT TREND AND THE LATEST MICROWAVE
DATA.

FEW CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. FABIEN IS STARTING TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE TO THE EAST. DURING THE
WEEK, FABIEN SHOULD TURN WESTWARD WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE SLOWING DOWN. ON FRIDAY, THIS RIDGE
SHOULD QUICKLY DISAPPEAR, PLACING THE SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE OF
CONTRADICTORY DIRECTING FLOWS, BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. FABIEN COULD THEN
REMAIN STATIONARY. AT LONGER RANGE, THE UNCERTAINTY BECOMES MORE
IMPORTANT, AS THE MOVEMENT WILL DEPEND ON THE SYSTEM'S WEAKENING
RATE. THE MORE INTENSE THE SYSTEM WILL BE, THE MORE THE WESTERLY FLOW
COULD TAKE OVER. THIS TRANSLATES INTO A STRONGER DISPERSION WITHIN
THE NUMERICAL MODELS IN THE LONG TERM. THE CURRENT RSMC TRACK IS A
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MAIN MODELS.

REGARDING ITS INTENSITY, FABIEN SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THEREFORE IT COULD REACH
THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN IN RATHER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK WEST-SOUTHWEST SHEAR ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS POSSIBLE. IT SHOULD THEN MAINTAIN AT
LEAST TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. LATER ON, THE STRENGTHENING OF
THE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND ESPECIALLY THE POSSIBLE COLLAPSE OF THE
UNDERLYING OCEANIC POTENTIAL DUE TO STATIONARITY, SHOULD LEAD TO A
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING.

FABIEN IS CURRENTLY LOCATED AT LESS THAN 300KM TO THE EAST OF
DIEGO-GARCIA, AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE TO 200KM FROM THE ISLAND,
LEAVING IT OUT OF THE STRONGEST WINDS. FABIEN POSES NO THREAT TO
OTHER ISLANDS IN THE BASIN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 161223
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/05/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 16/05/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FABIEN) 974 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.2 S / 75.0 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 85
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 105 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/05/17 AT 00 UTC:
8.5 S / 73.9 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2023/05/17 AT 12 UTC:
9.3 S / 73.1 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 160900
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 230516063450
2023051606 19S FABIEN 009 01 230 08 SATL SYNP 030
T000 067S 0755E 095 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 055 SE QD 065 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 079S 0744E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 087S 0735E 100 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 092S 0727E 095 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 093S 0715E 090 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 092S 0700E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 090S 0694E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 088S 0693E 070 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 6.7S 75.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.7S 75.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 7.9S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 8.7S 73.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 9.2S 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 9.3S 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 9.2S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 9.0S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 8.8S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 7.0S 75.2E.
16MAY23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180
NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023051606Z
IS 968 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 39 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z. //
1923051206 22S 896E 15
1923051212 24S 886E 15
1923051218 26S 876E 20
1923051300 28S 865E 25
1923051306 28S 856E 25
1923051312 33S 850E 30
1923051318 40S 842E 30
1923051400 43S 833E 35
1923051406 46S 822E 40
1923051412 47S 811E 50
1923051412 47S 811E 50
1923051418 50S 803E 60
1923051418 50S 803E 60
1923051500 51S 794E 65
1923051500 51S 794E 65
1923051500 51S 794E 65
1923051506 54S 784E 75
1923051506 54S 784E 75
1923051506 54S 784E 75
1923051512 55S 775E 85
1923051512 55S 775E 85
1923051512 55S 775E 85
1923051518 59S 767E 90
1923051518 59S 767E 90
1923051518 59S 767E 90
1923051600 62S 761E 90
1923051600 62S 761E 90
1923051600 62S 761E 90
1923051606 67S 755E 95
1923051606 67S 755E 95
1923051606 67S 755E 95
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 6.7S 75.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.7S 75.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 7.9S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 8.7S 73.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 9.2S 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 9.3S 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 9.2S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 9.0S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 8.8S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 7.0S 75.2E.
16MAY23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180
NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023051606Z
IS 968 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 39 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z. //
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 160644
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/10/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 16/05/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 6.5 S / 75.5 E
(SIX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 974 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SO: 165 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 80 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 16/05/2023 18 UTC: 8.0 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 17/05/2023 06 UTC: 9.1 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 17/05/2023 18 UTC: 9.7 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SO: 220 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 165 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 18/05/2023 06 UTC: 9.9 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SO: 215 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 165 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

60H: 18/05/2023 18 UTC: 9.8 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 150 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

72H: 19/05/2023 06 UTC: 9.7 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SO: 240 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/05/2023 06 UTC: 9.4 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SO: 260 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SO: 165 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

120H: 21/05/2023 06 UTC: 9.2 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 215 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 150 NO: 120

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0

AU COUR DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE S'EST
AMELIOREE AVEC L'APPARITION D'UN OEIL EN IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE. AU VU
DES ANALYSES DVORAK SUBJECTIVES (4.5 A 5.5), ET EN ACCORD AVEC LES
DERNIERS DONNEES ESTIMEES (74KT SMAP ET 57KT ASCAT), L'INTENSITE DE
FABIEN A ETE REHAUSSEE A 80KT.

PEU DE CHANGEMENTS EN PREVISION. FABIEN COMMENCE A SE DIRIGER VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST AVANT DE PRENDRE PLUS FRANCHEMENT UNE DIRECTION
VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE DORSALE SITUEE A L'EST. EN COURS
DE SEMAINE, FABIEN DEVRAIT REDRESSER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST AVEC
L'ARRIVEE D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PAR LE SUD-EST, TOUT EN
RALENTISSANT. VENDREDI, CETTE DORSALE DEVRAIT RAPIDEMENT DISPARAITRE
PLACANT LE SYSTEME AU SEIN DE FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES, ENTRE
DEUX DORSALES. FABIEN POURRAIT RESTER ALORS STATIONNAIRE. EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE, L'INCERTITUDE DEVIENT PLUS IMPORTANTE, CAR LE DEPLACEMENT
SERA DEPENDANT DE LA VITESSE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. PLUS LE
SYSTEME SERA INTENSE, PLUS LE FLUX DIRECTEUR D'OUEST POURRAIT PRENDRE
LE DESSUS. CELA SE TRADUIT PAR UNE DISPERSION AU SEIN DES MODELES
NUMERIQUES PLUS FORTE A LONG TERME. LA TRAJECTOIRE CMRS ACTUELLE EST
UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES PRINCIPAUX MODELES.

CONCERNANT SON INTENSITE, FABIEN DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE S'INTENSIFIER
DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT FAVORABLE, IL DONC
POURRAIT ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. DURANT LES 3
PROCHAINS JOURS, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RESTER DANS DES CONDITIONS PLUTOT
FAVORABLES HORMIS LA PRESENCE D'UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT
D'OUEST-SUD-OUEST MERCREDI/JEUDI. IL DEVRAIT ALORS SE MAINTENIR A
MINIMA AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, LE
RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE SUD-EST ET SURTOUT LE POSSIBLE
EFFONDREMENT DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SOUS-JACENT EN RAISON DE LA
STATIONNARITE, DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT SIGNIFICATIF.

FABIEN SE SITUE ACTUELLEMENT A ENVIRON 340KM AU NORD-EST DE
DIEGO-GARCIA, ET DEVRAIT PASSER A PRES DE 200KM DE L'ILE, LA LAISSANT
A L'ECART DES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS. FABIEN NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE
POUR LES AUTRES ILES DU BASSIN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 160644
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/10/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION 2023/05/16 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.5 S / 75.5 E
(SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/05/16 18 UTC: 8.0 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2023/05/17 06 UTC: 9.1 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2023/05/17 18 UTC: 9.7 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2023/05/18 06 UTC: 9.9 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 215 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2023/05/18 18 UTC: 9.8 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2023/05/19 06 UTC: 9.7 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/05/20 06 UTC: 9.4 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 260 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 165 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

120H: 2023/05/21 06 UTC: 9.2 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 120

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED WITH THE
APPEARANCE OF AN EYE IN CLASSICAL IMAGERY. IN VIEW OF THE SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ANALYSIS (4.5 TO 5.5), AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LAST
ESTIMATED DATA (74KT SMAP AND 57KT ASCAT), FABIEN'S INTENSITY HAS
BEEN RAISED TO 80KT.

FEW CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. FABIEN IS STARTING TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWEST BEFORE TAKING A MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE TO THE EAST. DURING THE
WEEK, FABIEN SHOULD TURN WESTWARD WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE SLOWING DOWN. ON FRIDAY, THIS RIDGE
SHOULD QUICKLY DISAPPEAR, PLACING THE SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE OF
CONTRADICTORY DIRECTING FLOWS, BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. FABIEN COULD THEN
REMAIN STATIONARY. AT LONGER RANGE, THE UNCERTAINTY BECOMES MORE
IMPORTANT, AS THE MOVEMENT WILL DEPEND ON THE SYSTEM'S WEAKENING
RATE. THE MORE INTENSE THE SYSTEM WILL BE, THE MORE THE WESTERLY FLOW
COULD TAKE OVER. THIS TRANSLATES INTO A STRONGER DISPERSION WITHIN
THE NUMERICAL MODELS IN THE LONG TERM. THE CURRENT RSMC TRACK IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MAIN MODELS.

REGARDING ITS INTENSITY, FABIEN SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THEREFORE IT COULD REACH
THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN IN RATHER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK WEST-SOUTHWEST SHEAR ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. IT
SHOULD THEN MAINTAIN AT LEAST TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. LATER
ON, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND ESPECIALLY THE
POSSIBLE COLLAPSE OF THE UNDERLYING OCEANIC POTENTIAL DUE TO
STATIONARITY, SHOULD LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING.

FABIEN IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 340KM NORTHEAST OF DIEGO-GARCIA,
AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE TO 200KM FROM THE ISLAND, LEAVING IT
OUT OF THE STRONGEST WINDS. FABIEN POSES NO THREAT TO OTHER ISLANDS
IN THE BASIN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 160628
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/05/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 16/05/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FABIEN) 974 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.5 S / 75.5 E
(SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/05/16 AT 18 UTC:
8.0 S / 74.4 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2023/05/17 AT 06 UTC:
9.1 S / 73.4 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 160049
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/10/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 16/05/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 6.1 S / 76.2 E
(SIX DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/0 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 976 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 165 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SO: 100 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 16/05/2023 12 UTC: 7.6 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 205 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 17/05/2023 00 UTC: 8.9 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 215 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 17/05/2023 12 UTC: 9.7 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 18/05/2023 00 UTC: 10.1 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SO: 230 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 18/05/2023 12 UTC: 10.3 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SO: 230 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 140 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

72H: 19/05/2023 00 UTC: 10.2 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SO: 240 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 140 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/05/2023 00 UTC: 9.6 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SO: 260 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 150 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

120H: 21/05/2023 00 UTC: 9.5 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SO: 270 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 155 NO: 130

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5+

TRES PEU DE CHANGEMENT AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES A PROPOS DE
FABIEN: LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN CDO SE MAINTIENT AVEC UNE
CONVECTION RESTANT SENSIBLEMENT LA MEME. LA PASSE MICRO-ONDE DE
2313UTC PERMET DE VALIDER LA LOCALISATION DU CENTRE EN BORDURE
SUD-EST DE LA CONVECTION LA PLUS FROIDE, AVEC ENCORE UN LEGER
DECALAGE DES BASSES COUCHES VERS LE NORD-EST. L'ANALYSE DVORAK DE
4.5+ DU CMRS NE CHANGE PAS L'AMENANT A UNE VALEUR SENSIBLEMENT
EQUIVALENTE PAR RAPPORT AUX AUTRES ESTIMATIONS, SOIT UN VENT MOYEN
QUI RESTE A 70KT.

PEU DE CHANGEMENTS DANS LA PREVISION. FABIEN COMMENCE A SE DIRIGER
VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST AVANT DE PRENDRE PLUS FRANCHEMENT UNE
DIRECTION VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
SITUEE AU SUD-EST. SUIVANT LA TENDANCE GRANDISSANTE DU MAINTIEN DE
CETTE DORSALE ET LA PRESENCE MOINS MARQUE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE, FABIEN DEVRAIT GARDER UNE TRAJECTOIRE ASSEZ CONSTANTE
AVANT DE REDRESSER VERS L'OUEST SANS MARQUER DE RALENTISSEMENT FRANC
A ECHEANCE DE JEUDI. C'EST SOUS L'EFFET DE FLUX DIRECTEURS
CONTRADICTOIRES UN RALENTISSEMENT DE FABIEN SERA NOTABLE A PARTIR DE
VENDREDI. AINSI LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE, AIDEE PAR LA MISE EN
PLACE D'UNE DORSALE SUR LE NORD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, VA CONTRIBUER
A ORIENTER LA TRAJECTOIRE UN PEU PLUS VERS LE NORD-OUEST AINSI QUE
RALENTIR VOIRE STOPPER LE DEPLACEMENT DE FABIEN A ECHEANCE DE
VENDREDI. LA DISPERSION DES PREVISIONS D'ENSEMBLES RESTE ASSEZ
IMPORTANTE A CES ECHEANCES, AUGMENTANT L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA
TRAJECTOIRE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME D'INTENSITE : L'ENVIRONNEMENT VA DEVENIR
PROGRESSIVEMENT PLUS FAVORABLE AU DEVELOPPEMENT DU SYSTEME. AVEC LA
BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT, L'AMELIORATION DE LA CONVERGENCE DE BASSES
COUCHES COTE EQUATORIAL ET LE MAINTIEN D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE, LES CONDITIONS SONT PRESENTES POUR UNE INTENSIFICATION
REGULIERE AVEC QUELQUES PALLIERS POSSIBLES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES
48H. LA PREVISION DU CMRS ENVISAGE DONC UNE INTENSIFICATION
ABOUTISSANT PROBABLEMENT DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE EN MILIEU DE
SEMAINE. PAR LA SUITE, SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN CISAILLEMENT
GRANDISSANT, L'INTENSITE DEVRAIT FAIBLIR PROGRESSIVEMENT AVANT DE
MARQUER UN PLUS NET AFFAIBLISSEMENT A ECHEANCE DE VENDREDI/SAMEDI EN
LIEN AVEC LE RALENTISSEMENT DU SYSTEME.

SE SITUANT ACTUELLEMENT A PRES DE 430KM DE DIEGO GARCIA, FABIEN
DEVRAIT D'ABORD CIRCULER AU SUD-EST DE L'ARCHIPEL DES CHAGOS AVANT DE
SE RAPPROCHER A PRES DE 250KM AU SUD-EST DES ILES LES PLUS AU SUD DE
L'ARCHIPEL DES CHAGOS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 160049
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/10/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION 2023/05/16 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.1 S / 76.2 E
(SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/05/16 12 UTC: 7.6 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 205 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2023/05/17 00 UTC: 8.9 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 215 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2023/05/17 12 UTC: 9.7 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2023/05/18 00 UTC: 10.1 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 230 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2023/05/18 12 UTC: 10.3 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 230 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2023/05/19 00 UTC: 10.2 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 240 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/05/20 00 UTC: 9.6 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 260 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

120H: 2023/05/21 00 UTC: 9.5 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 155 NW: 130

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5+

VERY LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS ABOUT FABIEN: THE CLOUDY
CONFIGURATION IN CDO IS MAINTAINED WITH A CONVECTION REMAINING
APPROXIMATELY THE SAME. THE MICROWAVE PASS OF 2313UTC VALIDATES THE
LOCATION OF THE CENTER AT THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE COLDEST
CONVECTION, WITH STILL A SLIGHT SHIFT OF THE LOW LAYERS TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 4.5+ OF THE RSMC DOES NOT CHANGE
BRINGING IT TO A VALUE ROUGHLY EQUIVALENT TO THE OTHER ESTIMATES,
THAT IS TO SAY A MEAN WIND WHICH REMAINS AT 70KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST: FABIEN IS STARTING TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWEST BEFORE TAKING A MORE DEFINITE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION
UNDER THE EFFECT OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST. FOLLOWING
THE INCREASING TENDENCY OF THIS RIDGE AND THE LESS MARKED PRESENCE OF
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE, FABIEN SHOULD KEEP A FAIRLY CONSTANT TRACK
BEFORE STRAIGHTENING OUT TOWARDS THE WEST WITHOUT MARKING ANY CLEAR
SLOWDOWN BY THURSDAY. IT IS UNDER THE EFFECT OF CONTRADICTORY
STEERING FLOWS THAT FABIEN WILL SLOW DOWN FROM FRIDAY. THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE EQUATOR, HELPED BY THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO DIRECT THE TRACK A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SLOW DOWN OR EVEN STOP THE MOVEMENT OF FABIEN BY FRIDAY. THE
DISPERSION OF ENSEMBLE FORECASTS REMAINS QUITE IMPORTANT AT THESE
TIMES, INCREASING THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY: THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME
PROGRESSIVELY MORE FAVORABLE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. WITH
THE DECREASE OF THE SHEAR, THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE CONVERGENCE OF LOW
LAYERS EQUATORIAL COAST AND THE MAINTENANCE OF A GOOD DIVERGENCE OF
ALOFT, THE CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT FOR A REGULAR INTENSIFICATION WITH
SOME POSSIBLE STAGES DURING THE NEXT 48H. THE RSMC FORECAST CONSIDERS
AN INTENSIFICATION PROBABLY LEADING TO AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THEREAFTER, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A GROWING
SHEAR, THE INTENSITY SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN BEFORE MARKING A
CLEARER WEAKENING BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN CONNECTION WITH THE SLOWING
OF THE SYSTEM.

CURRENTLY LOCATED AT ABOUT 430KM FROM DIEGO GARCIA, FABIEN SHOULD
FIRST CIRCULATE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CHAGOS ARCHIPELAGO BEFORE
APPROACHING AT ABOUT 250KM SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST ISLANDS OF
THE CHAGOS ARCHIPELAGO.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 160001
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/05/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 16/05/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FABIEN) 976 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.1 S / 76.2 E
(SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 15 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/05/16 AT 12 UTC:
7.6 S / 75.0 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/05/17 AT 00 UTC:
8.9 S / 73.9 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 152100
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 230515190526
2023051518 19S FABIEN 007 01 240 09 SATL 015
T000 060S 0767E 090 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 070S 0752E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 081S 0740E 110 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 089S 0731E 115 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 093S 0723E 105 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 094S 0705E 095 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 093S 0698E 090 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 092S 0693E 080 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 6.0S 76.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.0S 76.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 7.0S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 8.1S 74.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 8.9S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 9.3S 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 9.4S 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 9.3S 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 9.2S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 6.3S 76.3E.
15MAY23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 259
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023051518Z IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z
IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.//
1923051206 22S 896E 15
1923051212 24S 886E 15
1923051218 26S 876E 20
1923051300 28S 865E 25
1923051306 28S 856E 25
1923051312 33S 850E 30
1923051318 40S 842E 30
1923051400 43S 833E 35
1923051406 46S 822E 40
1923051412 47S 811E 50
1923051412 47S 811E 50
1923051418 50S 803E 60
1923051418 50S 803E 60
1923051500 51S 794E 65
1923051500 51S 794E 65
1923051500 51S 794E 65
1923051506 54S 784E 75
1923051506 54S 784E 75
1923051506 54S 784E 75
1923051512 55S 775E 85
1923051512 55S 775E 85
1923051512 55S 775E 85
1923051518 60S 767E 90
1923051518 60S 767E 90
1923051518 60S 767E 90
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 6.0S 76.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.0S 76.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 7.0S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 8.1S 74.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 8.9S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 9.3S 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 9.4S 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 9.3S 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 9.2S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 6.3S 76.3E.
15MAY23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 259
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023051518Z IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z
IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 151801
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/05/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 15/05/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FABIEN) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.7 S / 76.9 E
(FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 340 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/05/16 AT 06 UTC:
6.9 S / 75.5 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/05/16 AT 18 UTC:
8.2 S / 74.6 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 151500
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 230515133517
2023051512 19S FABIEN 006 01 265 09 SATL 060
T000 055S 0775E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 064S 0760E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 074S 0747E 110 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 081S 0740E 115 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 087S 0734E 105 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 091S 0726E 095 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 094S 0715E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 094S 0707E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 5.5S 77.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.5S 77.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 6.4S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 7.4S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 8.1S 74.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 8.7S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 9.1S 72.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 9.4S 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 9.4S 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 5.7S 77.1E.
15MAY23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 313
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023051512Z IS 974 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.
//
1923051206 22S 896E 15
1923051212 24S 886E 15
1923051218 26S 876E 20
1923051300 28S 865E 25
1923051306 28S 856E 25
1923051312 33S 850E 30
1923051318 40S 842E 30
1923051400 43S 833E 35
1923051406 46S 822E 40
1923051412 47S 811E 50
1923051412 47S 811E 50
1923051418 50S 803E 60
1923051418 50S 803E 60
1923051500 51S 794E 65
1923051500 51S 794E 65
1923051500 51S 794E 65
1923051506 54S 784E 75
1923051506 54S 784E 75
1923051506 54S 784E 75
1923051512 55S 775E 85
1923051512 55S 775E 85
1923051512 55S 775E 85
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 151221
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/10/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 15/05/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 5.7 S / 77.7 E
(CINQ DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SO: 195 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 60 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 16/05/2023 00 UTC: 6.5 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 175 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 16/05/2023 12 UTC: 7.7 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 17/05/2023 00 UTC: 8.6 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SO: 230 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 155 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

48H: 17/05/2023 12 UTC: 9.2 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SO: 230 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

60H: 18/05/2023 00 UTC: 9.6 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SO: 220 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

72H: 18/05/2023 12 UTC: 10.0 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SO: 215 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 150 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/05/2023 12 UTC: 10.4 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SO: 240 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 165 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

120H: 20/05/2023 12 UTC: 10.5 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SO: 155 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, FABIEN A GARDE UNE CONFIGURATION
NUAGEUSE EN CDO AVEC UNE CONVECTION QUI S'EST INTENSIFIEE. LES
DERNIERES IMAGES VISIBLES LAISSENT DEVINER LES PREMICES D'UN OEIL,
STRUCTURE EN OEIL DEJA PRESENTE SUR LA PASSE MICRO-ONDES GCOM VERS
0900Z, MALGRE DES EFFETS ENCORE VISIBLES DU CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE
SECTEUR EST, QUI SE TRADUIT PAR UN TILT ENTRE LE 37GHZ ET LE 85GHZ.

DANS LES PROCHAINS JOURS, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE DIRIGER GLOBALEMENT
VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU
SUD-EST. A PARTIR DU MILIEU DE SEMAINE, DES FLUX DIRECTEURS PLUS
CONTRADICTOIRES PILOTES PAR LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE ET LES
DORSALES SUBTROPICALES DEVRAIENT OCCASIONNER UN NET RALENTISSEMENT DE
SON DEPLACEMENT, EN S'ACCOMPAGNANT D'UNE HAUSSE DE L'INCERTITUDE SUR
LA TRAJECTOIRE, COMME LE MONTRE LA DISPERSION DES PREVISIONS
D'ENSEMBLE. LE CMRS SUIT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MODELES EUROPEENS ET
AMERICAINS. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RESTER AU LARGE DE L'EST DE L'ARCHIPEL
DES CHAGOS SANS MENACE DIRECTE POUR LES AUTRES ILES HABITEES DU
BASSIN.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, MALGRE LA PERSISTANCE D'UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE
A COURT TERME, L'ENVIRONNEMENT VA DEVENIR PROGRESSIVEMENT PLUS
FAVORABLE AU DEVELOPPEMENT DU SYSTEME A PARTIR DE CE LUNDI, AVEC LA
BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT, L'AMELIORATION DE LA CONVERGENCE DE BASSES
COUCHES COTE EQUATORIAL ET LE MAINTIEN D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE, VOIRE MEME L'AUGMENTATION DU POTENTEIL ENERGETIQUE A
PARTIR DE MERCREDI.
LA PREVISION DU CMRS ENVISAGE DONC UNE INTENSIFICATION ABOUTISSANT
PROBABLEMENT DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, CE QUI
EST SUGGERE PAR LA PLUPART DES MODELES, AVEC NEANMOINS UNE DIVERGENCE
NOTABLE SUR LA CHRONOLOGIE DE L'INTENSIFICATION (INTENSIFICATION PLUS
PRECOCE POUR GFS, QUI EST UN PEU MIEUX CALE QU'IFS A L'ETAT INITIAL).=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 151221
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/10/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION 2023/05/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.7 S / 77.7 E
(FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 195 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/05/16 00 UTC: 6.5 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2023/05/16 12 UTC: 7.7 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2023/05/17 00 UTC: 8.6 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2023/05/17 12 UTC: 9.2 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

60H: 2023/05/18 00 UTC: 9.6 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2023/05/18 12 UTC: 10.0 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/05/19 12 UTC: 10.4 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 165 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2023/05/20 12 UTC: 10.5 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=4.5-

IN THE LAST 6 HOURS, FABIEN HAS KEPT A CLOUDY CONFIGURATION IN CDO
WITH AN INTENSIFIED CONVECTION. THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW THE
FIRST SIGNS OF AN EYE, AN EYE STRUCTURE ALREADY PRESENT ON THE GCOM
MICROWAVE PASS AROUND 0900Z, DESPITE THE STILL VISIBLE EFFECTS OF THE
MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR, WHICH IS TRANSLATED BY A TILT BETWEEN 37GHZ
AND 85GHZ.

IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE EFFECT OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, MORE CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS DRIVEN
BY THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGES SHOULD CAUSE
A CLEAR SLOWING DOWN OF ITS MOVEMENT, ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN
THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK, AS SHOWN BY THE DISPERSION OF THE
OVERALL FORECAST. THE CMRS FOLLOWS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN EUROPEAN AND
AMERICAN MODELS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF THE EASTERN
CHAGOS ARCHIPELAGO WITH NO DIRECT THREAT TO OTHER INHABITED ISLANDS
IN THE BASIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DESPITE THE PERSISTENCE OF A MODERATE SHEAR IN
THE SHORT TERM, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE
FAVORABLE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM FROM THIS MONDAY, WITH THE
DECREASE OF THE SHEAR, THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE CONVERGENCE OF LOW
LAYERS EQUATORIAL COAST AND THE MAINTENANCE OF A GOOD DIVERGENCE OF
ALOFT, AND EVEN THE INCREASE OF THE ENERGETIC POTENTIAL FROM
WEDNESDAY.
THE RSMC FORECAST FORECAST THUS ENVISAGES AN INTENSIFICATION LEADING
PROBABLY TO AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE MODELS, WITH NEVERTHELESS A NOTABLE
DIVERGENCE ON THE CHRONOLOGY OF THE INTENSIFICATION (EARLIER
INTENSIFICATION FOR GFS, WHICH IS A LITTLE BETTER WEDGED THAN IFS IN
THE INITIAL STATE).=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 151217 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/05/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 15/05/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FABIEN) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.7 S / 77.7 E
(FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 550 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/05/16 AT 00 UTC:
6.5 S / 76.4 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/05/16 AT 12 UTC:
7.7 S / 75.2 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 151204
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/05/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 15/05/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FABIEN) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.7 S / 77.7 E
(FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 550 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
0 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/05/16 AT 00 UTC:
6.5 S / 76.4 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/05/16 AT 12 UTC:
7.7 S / 75.2 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 150900
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 230515073459
2023051506 19S FABIEN 005 01 245 10 SATL 030
T000 055S 0785E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 062S 0770E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 073S 0757E 105 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 081S 0747E 110 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 086S 0741E 105 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 091S 0735E 090 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 095S 0727E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 098S 0720E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 5.5S 78.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.5S 78.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 6.2S 77.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 7.3S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 8.1S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 8.6S 74.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 9.1S 73.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 9.5S 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 9.8S 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 5.7S 78.1E.
15MAY23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023051506Z IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.
//
1923051206 22S 896E 15
1923051212 24S 886E 15
1923051218 26S 876E 20
1923051300 28S 865E 25
1923051306 28S 856E 25
1923051312 33S 850E 30
1923051318 40S 842E 30
1923051400 43S 833E 35
1923051406 46S 822E 40
1923051412 47S 811E 50
1923051412 47S 811E 50
1923051418 50S 803E 60
1923051418 50S 803E 60
1923051500 51S 794E 65
1923051500 51S 794E 65
1923051500 51S 794E 65
1923051506 55S 785E 75
1923051506 55S 785E 75
1923051506 55S 785E 75
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 5.5S 78.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.5S 78.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 6.2S 77.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 7.3S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 8.1S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 8.6S 74.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 9.1S 73.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 9.5S 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 9.8S 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 5.7S 78.1E.
15MAY23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023051506Z IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 150614
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/10/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 15/05/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 5.5 S / 78.7 E
(CINQ DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-HUIT DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 986 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SO: 195 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 60 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/05/2023 18 UTC: 6.1 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 16/05/2023 06 UTC: 7.1 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 16/05/2023 18 UTC: 8.2 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SO: 205 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 140 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 17/05/2023 06 UTC: 8.8 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

60H: 17/05/2023 18 UTC: 9.3 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 215 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

72H: 18/05/2023 06 UTC: 9.6 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SO: 230 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 155 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/05/2023 06 UTC: 9.9 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SO: 150 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

120H: 20/05/2023 06 UTC: 10.3 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SO: 260 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 60 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=4.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, FABIEN A GARDE UNE CONFIGURATION
NUAGEUSE EN CDO AVEC UNE CONVECTION QUI S'EST INTENSIFIEE. LES
DERNIERES IMAGES VISIBLES LAISSENT DEVINER LES PREMICES D'UN OEIL,
STRUCTURE EN OEIL DEJA PRESENTE SUR LA PASSE MICRO-ONDES GPM VERS
0056Z, MALGRE DES EFFETS ENCORE VISIBLES DU CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE
SECTEUR EST. L'INTENSITE EST EN COHERENCE AVEC LES DONNEES SMAP DE
0031Z.

DANS LES PROCHAINS JOURS, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE DIRIGER GLOBALEMENT
VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU
SUD-EST. A PARTIR DU MILIEU DE SEMAINE, DES FLUX DIRECTEURS PLUS
CONTRADICTOIRES PILOTES PAR LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE ET LES
DORSALES SUBTROPICALES DEVRAIENT OCCASIONNER UN NET RALENTISSEMENT DE
SON DEPLACEMENT, EN S'ACCOMPAGNANT D'UNE HAUSSE DE L'INCERTITUDE SUR
LA TRAJECTOIRE, COMME LE MONTRE LA DISPERSION DES PREVISIONS
D'ENSEMBLE. LE CMRS SUIT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MODELES EUROPEENS ET
AMERICAINS. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RESTER AU LARGE DE L'EST DE L'ARCHIPEL
DES CHAGOS SANS MENACE DIRECTE POUR LES AUTRES ILES HABITEES DU
BASSIN.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, MALGRE LA PERSISTANCE D'UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE
A COURT TERME, L'ENVIRONNEMENT VA DEVENIR PROGRESSIVEMENT PLUS
FAVORABLE AU DEVELOPPEMENT DU SYSTEME A PARTIR DE CE LUNDI, AVEC LA
BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT, L'AMELIORATION DE LA CONVERGENCE DE BASSES
COUCHES COTE EQUATORIAL ET LE MAINTIEN D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE, VOIRE MEME L'AUMENTATION DU POTENTEIL ENERGATIQUE A
PARTIR DE MERCREDI.
LA PREVISION DU CMRS ENVISAGE DONC UNE INTENSIFICATION ABOUTISSANT AU
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL PUIS PROBABLEMENT DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, CE QUI EST SUGGERE PAR LA PLUPART DES
MODELES, AVEC NEANMOINS UNE DIVERGENCE NOTABLE SUR LA CHRONOLOGIE DE
L'INTENSIFICATION (INTENSIFICATION PLUS PRECOCE POUR GFS, QUI EST UN
PEU MIEUX CALE QU'IFS A L'ETAT INITIAL).=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 150614
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/10/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION 2023/05/15 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.5 S / 78.7 E
(FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 195 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/05/15 18 UTC: 6.1 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2023/05/16 06 UTC: 7.1 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2023/05/16 18 UTC: 8.2 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2023/05/17 06 UTC: 8.8 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

60H: 2023/05/17 18 UTC: 9.3 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 215 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2023/05/18 06 UTC: 9.6 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/05/19 06 UTC: 9.9 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

120H: 2023/05/20 06 UTC: 10.3 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 260 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=4.0+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, FABIEN HAS KEPT A CLOUDY CONFIGURATION IN
CDO WITH AN INTENSIFIED CONVECTION. THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW THE
FIRST SIGNS OF AN EYE, AN EYE STRUCTURE ALREADY PRESENT ON THE GPM
MICROWAVE PASS AROUND 0056Z, DESPITE THE STILL VISIBLE EFFECTS OF THE
MODERATE EAST SHEAR. THE INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SMAP DATA
FROM 0031Z.

IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE EFFECT OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, MORE CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS DRIVEN
BY THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGES SHOULD CAUSE
A CLEAR SLOWING DOWN OF ITS MOVEMENT, ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN
THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK, AS SHOWN BY THE DISPERSION OF THE
OVERALL FORECAST. THE CMRS FOLLOWS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN EUROPEAN AND
AMERICAN MODELS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF THE EASTERN
CHAGOS ARCHIPELAGO WITH NO DIRECT THREAT TO OTHER INHABITED ISLANDS
IN THE BASIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DESPITE THE PERSISTENCE OF A MODERATE SHEAR IN
THE SHORT TERM, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE
FAVORABLE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM FROM THIS MONDAY, WITH THE
DECREASE OF THE SHEAR, THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE CONVERGENCE OF LOW
LAYERS EQUATORIAL COAST AND THE MAINTENANCE OF A GOOD DIVERGENCE OF
ALOFT, AND EVEN THE INCREASE OF THE ENERGETIC POTENTIAL FROM
WEDNESDAY.
THE RSMC FORECAST FORECAST THUS ENVISAGES AN INTENSIFICATION LEADING
TO THE STAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THEN PROBABLY TO AN INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY
MOST OF THE MODELS, WITH NEVERTHELESS A NOTABLE DIVERGENCE ON THE
CHRONOLOGY OF THE INTENSIFICATION (EARLIER INTENSIFICATION FOR GFS,
WHICH IS A LITTLE BETTER WEDGED THAN IFS IN THE INITIAL STATE).=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 150604
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/05/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 15/05/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FABIEN) 986 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.5 S / 78.7 E
(FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CERCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/05/15 AT 18 UTC:
6.1 S / 77.1 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2023/05/16 AT 06 UTC:
7.1 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 150039
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/10/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 15/05/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 5.2 S / 79.4 E
(CINQ DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 991 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 40 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/05/2023 12 UTC: 5.6 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 16/05/2023 00 UTC: 6.3 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 155 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 16/05/2023 12 UTC: 7.4 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 240 SO: 195 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

48H: 17/05/2023 00 UTC: 8.2 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 195 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

60H: 17/05/2023 12 UTC: 8.8 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SO: 205 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 140 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

72H: 18/05/2023 00 UTC: 9.3 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SO: 205 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SO: 150 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/05/2023 00 UTC: 9.7 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SO: 270 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SO: 140 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

120H: 20/05/2023 00 UTC: 10.0 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SO: 240 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=4.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, FABIEN A GARDE UNE CONFIGURATION
NUAGEUSE EN CDO AVEC UNE CONVECTION QUI S'EST INTENSIFIEE. UNE PASSE
MICRO-ONDES AMSR2 VERS 2030Z CONFIRME L'AMORCE DE STRUCTURE EN OEIL,
MALGRE DES EFFETS ENCORE VISIBLES DU CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE SECTEUR
EST. L'INTENSITE DE 18UTC A ETE REVUE A LA HAUSSE A POSTERIORI DANS
LA BEST-TRACK (VENTS DE 50KT AU LIEU DE 40KT, EN PARTICULIER
JUSTIFIEE PAR LES DONNEES ASCAT). L'INTENSITE A 00UTC EST MAINTENANT
AUGMENTEE A 55KT, EN COHERENCE AVEC LES DONNEES SATCON ET AVEC
L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE.

DANS LES PROCHAINS JOURS, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE DIRIGER GLOBALEMENT
VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU
SUD-EST. A PARTIR DU MILIEU DE SEMAINE, DES FLUX DIRECTEURS PLUS
CONTRADICTOIRES PILOTES PAR LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE ET LES
DORSALES SUBTROPICALES DEVRAIENT OCCASIONNER UN RALENTISSEMENT DE SON
DEPLACEMENT, EN S'ACCOMPAGNANT D'UNE HAUSSE DE L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA
TRAJECTOIRE, COMME LE MONTRE LA DISPERSION DES PREVISIONS D'ENSEMBLE.
LE CMRS SUIT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MODELES EUROPEENS ET AMERICAINS.
LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RESTER AU LARGE DE L'EST DE L'ARCHIPEL DES CHAGOS
SANS MENACE DIRECTE POUR LES AUTRES ILES HABITEES DU BASSIN.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, MALGRE LA PERSISTANCE D'UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE
A COURT TERME, L'ENVIRONNEMENT VA DEVENIR PROGRESSIVEMENT PLUS
FAVORABLE AU DEVELOPPEMENT DU SYSTEME A PARTIR DE CE LUNDI, AVEC LA
BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT, L'AMELIORATION DE LA CONVERGENCE DE BASSES
COUCHES COTE EQUATORIAL ET LE MAINTIEN D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE. LA PREVISION DU CMRS ENVISAGE DONC UNE INTENSIFICATION
ABOUTISSANT AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL PUIS PROBABLEMENT DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, CE QUI EST SUGGERE PAR LA
PLUPART DES MODELES, AVEC NEANMOINS UNE DIVERGENCE NOTABLE SUR LA
CHRONOLOGIE DE L'INTENSIFICATION (INTENSIFICATION PLUS PRECOCE POUR
GFS, QUI EST UN PEU MIEUX CALE QU'IFS A L'ETAT INITIAL).=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 150039
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/10/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION 2023/05/15 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.2 S / 79.4 E
(FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 40 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/05/15 12 UTC: 5.6 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2023/05/16 00 UTC: 6.3 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2023/05/16 12 UTC: 7.4 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2023/05/17 00 UTC: 8.2 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

60H: 2023/05/17 12 UTC: 8.8 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2023/05/18 00 UTC: 9.3 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 205 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/05/19 00 UTC: 9.7 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 270 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

120H: 2023/05/20 00 UTC: 10.0 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=4.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, FABIEN HAS KEPT A CDO PATTERN WITH
INTENSIFYING CONVECTION. A 2030Z AMSR2 PASS STILL SHOWS THE EARLY
STAGES OF AN EYE-LIKE PATTERN, ALTHOUGH SIGNS OF MODERATE EASTERLY
WIND SHEAR REMAIN VISIBLE. THE 18Z BEST-TRACK INTENSITY HAS BEEN
REVISED UPWARDS AFTERHAND (WINDS RAISED TO 50KT INSTEAD OF 40KT,
ESPECIALLY JUSTIFIED BY ASCAT DATA). THE 00Z INTENSITY IS NOW
ESTIMATED AT 55KT, BASED ON SATCON ESTIMATE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSIS.

IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE EFFECT OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. FROM MID-WEEK, MORE CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS DRIVEN BY
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGES SHOULD CAUSE IT TO
SLOW DOWN, ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN TRACK UNCERTAINTY, AS THE
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS' SPREAD SHOWS. THE RSMC FOLLOWS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN SCENARIOS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OFF THE EAST OF CHAGOS ARCHIPELAGO WITH NO DIRECT THREAT TO
OTHER INHABITED ISLANDS IN THE BASIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DESPITE THE PERSISTENCE OF MODERATE SHEAR IN
THE SHORT TERM, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE
TO DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS MONDAY, WITH DECREASING WIND SHEAR, IMPROVED
EQUATORWARD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. THE RSMC
FORECAST THUS EXPECTS INTENSIFICATION LEADING TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE THEN PROBABLY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BY MID-WEEK, AS
SUGGESTED BY MOST MODELS, WITH NEVERTHELESS SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ON INTENSIFICATION TIMING (EARLIER INTENSIFICATION FOR
GFS, WHICH SEEMS TO FIT A BIT BETTER THAN IFS WITH THE INITIAL
STATE).=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 150021
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/05/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 15/05/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FABIEN) 991 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.2 S / 79.4 E
(FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 350 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
20 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 25
NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/05/15 AT 12 UTC:
5.6 S / 77.9 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2023/05/16 AT 00 UTC:
6.3 S / 76.6 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 142100
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 230514194111
2023051418 19S FABIEN 003 01 255 10 SATL 060
T000 050S 0801E 060 R050 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 054S 0784E 070 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 062S 0768E 085 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 070S 0755E 100 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 079S 0747E 105 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 094S 0736E 100 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 101S 0727E 095 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 106S 0718E 085 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 5.0S 80.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.0S 80.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 5.4S 78.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 6.2S 76.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 7.0S 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 7.9S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 9.4S 73.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 10.1S 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 10.6S 71.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 5.1S 79.7E.
14MAY23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 471
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023051418Z IS 978 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND
152100Z.//
1923051206 22S 896E 15
1923051212 24S 886E 15
1923051218 26S 876E 20
1923051300 28S 865E 25
1923051306 28S 856E 25
1923051312 33S 850E 30
1923051318 40S 842E 30
1923051400 43S 833E 35
1923051406 46S 822E 40
1923051412 47S 811E 50
1923051412 47S 811E 50
1923051418 50S 801E 60
1923051418 50S 801E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 5.0S 80.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.0S 80.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 5.4S 78.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 6.2S 76.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 7.0S 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 7.9S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 9.4S 73.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 10.1S 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 10.6S 71.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 5.1S 79.7E.
14MAY23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 471
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023051418Z IS 978 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND
152100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 141837
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/10/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 14/05/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 5.0 S / 80.4 E
(CINQ DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/05/2023 06 UTC: 5.3 S / 78.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75

24H: 15/05/2023 18 UTC: 5.9 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 65

36H: 16/05/2023 06 UTC: 6.7 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 16/05/2023 18 UTC: 8.0 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SO: 175 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

60H: 17/05/2023 06 UTC: 9.0 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 195 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

72H: 17/05/2023 18 UTC: 9.7 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SO: 205 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 140 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/05/2023 18 UTC: 10.6 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SO: 215 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

120H: 19/05/2023 18 UTC: 11.3 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 150 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SO: 70 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=3.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES SIX HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION A EVOLUE VERS
UN CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE, AVEC UNE CONVECTION MODEREE A FORTE.
L'AMELIORATION DE LA STRUCTURE INTERNE EN MICRO-ONDES S'EST CONFIRMEE
AVEC UNE AMORCE D'OEIL SUR LA SSMIS-F17 DE 1315Z. L'ANALYSE DVORAK
SUBJECTIVE DE 18UTC A ETE PRINCIPALEMENT BASEE SUR LE MET MAIS
POURRAIT ETRE UN PEU SOUS-ESTIMEE (3.5 POURRAIT ETRE PLUS CORRECT).
LA PASSE ASCAT-C DE 1628Z MONTRANT DES VENTS A 46KT ETANT
MALHEUREUSEMENT ARRIVEE TROP TARD POUR ETRE PRISE EN COMPTE DANS
L'ANALYSE D'INTENSITE, IL APPARAIT EVIDENT QUE LES 40KT SOUS-ESTIMENT
LA REALITE. LA BEST-TRACK SERA DONC CORRIGEE A POSTERIORI AVEC UNE
INTENSITE REMONTEE A 50KT A 18UTC AU LIEU DE 40KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, DANS LES PROCHAINS JOURS LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
CONTINUER A SE DIRIGER GLOBALEMENT VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST PUIS
SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD-EST.
A PARTIR DU MILIEU DE SEMAINE, DES FLUX DIRECTEURS PLUS
CONTRADICTOIRES PILOTES PAR LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE ET LES
DORSALES SUBTROPICALES, DEVRAIENT OCCASIONNER UN RALENTISSEMENT DE
SON DEPLACEMENT, EN S'ACCOMPAGNANT D'UNE HAUSSE DE L'INCERTITUDE SUR
LA TRAJECTOIRE, VISIBLE SUR LES PREVISIONS D'ENSEMBLE. LE CMRS SUIT
UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MODELES EUROPEENS ET AMERICAINS, MAIS EN
S'APPROCHANT DAVANTAGE DU SCENARIO DETERMINISTE EUROPEEN.
LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RESTER AU LARGE DE L'EST DE L'ARCHIPEL DES CHAGOS
SANS MENACE DIRECTE POUR LES AUTRES ILES HABITEES DU BASSIN.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, MALGRE LA PERSISTANCE D'UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE
A COURT TERME, L'ENVIRONNEMENT VA DEVENIR PROGRESSIVEMENT PLUS
FAVORABLE AU DEVELOPPEMENT DU SYSTEME A PARTIR DE CE LUNDI, AVEC LA
BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT, L'AMELIORATION DE LA CONVERGENCE DE BASSES
COUCHES COTE EQUATORIAL ET LE MAINTIEN D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE. LA PREVISION DU CMRS ENVISAGE DONC UN DEVELOPPEMENT
D'ABORD LENT PUIS PLUS RAPIDE, ABOUTISSANT AU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL VOIRE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, CE QUI
EST SUGGERE PAR LA PLUPART DES MODELES, NOTAMMENT IFS ET GFS, AVEC
NEANMOINS UNE DIVERGENCE NOTABLE SUR LA CHRONOLOGIE DE
L'INTENSIFICATION (INTENSIFICATION PLUS PRECOCE POUR GFS).=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 141837
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/10/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION 2023/05/14 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.0 S / 80.4 E
(FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/05/15 06 UTC: 5.3 S / 78.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75

24H: 2023/05/15 18 UTC: 5.9 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 65

36H: 2023/05/16 06 UTC: 6.7 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2023/05/16 18 UTC: 8.0 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

60H: 2023/05/17 06 UTC: 9.0 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2023/05/17 18 UTC: 9.7 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/05/18 18 UTC: 10.6 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 215 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2023/05/19 18 UTC: 11.3 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=3.0+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS EVOLVED TOWARDS A CDO
PATTERN, WITH MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION. THE INNER CORE'S
STRUCTURE HAS KEPT SLIGHTLY IMPROVING WITH AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE
STARTING TO FORM IN MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY, SUCH AS SEEN ON THE 1315Z
SSMIS-F17. 18Z SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS WAS MAINLY BASED ON THE MET
BUT COULD BE A BIT UNDERESTIMATED AFTER THOUGHT (3.5 COULD BE MORE
ACCURATE). THE 1628Z ASCAT-C PASS SHOWING WINDS REACHING UP TO 46KT
WAS UNFORTUNATELY TOO LATE TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN THE INTENSITY
ANALYSIS, SO IT SEEMS OBVIOUS THAT THE 40KT UNDERESTIMATES REALITY.
THE BEST-TRACK WILL THEREFORE BE CORRECTED AFTERHAND WITH AN
INTENSITY RAISED TO 50KT AT 18UTC INSTEAD OF 40KT.

IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY
WEST-SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTHWEST UNDER THE EFFECT OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, MORE
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS DRIVEN BY A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGES SHOULD CAUSE A SLOWING DOWN OF ITS MOVEMENT,
ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK, VISIBLE ON
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. THE RSMC FOLLOWS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN MODELS, BUT CLOSER TO THE EUROPEAN
DETERMINISTIC SCENARIO.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF THE EAST OF CHAGOS ARCHIPELAGO
WITH NO DIRECT THREAT TO OTHER INHABITED ISLANDS IN THE BASIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DESPITE THE PERSISTENCE OF MODERATE SHEAR IN
THE SHORT TERM, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE
TO DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS MONDAY, WITH DECREASING WIND SHEAR, BETTER
EQUATORWARD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. THE RSMC
FORECAST THUS EXPECTS SLOW DEVELOPMENT AT FIRST, THEN FASTER, LEADING
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE OR EVEN AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BY
MID-WEEK, AS SUGGESTED BY MOST MODELS, NOTABLY IFS AND GFS, WITH
NEVERTHELESS A NOTABLE DIVERGENCE ON INTENSIFICATION TIMING (EARLIER
INTENSIFICATION FOR GFS).=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 141818
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/05/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 14/05/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FABIEN) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.0 S / 80.4 E
(FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 280 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/05/15 AT 06 UTC:
5.3 S / 78.4 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2023/05/15 AT 18 UTC:
5.9 S / 76.8 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 141221
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/10/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 14/05/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 4.9 S / 81.0 E
(QUATRE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT UN DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 999 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 165 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/05/2023 00 UTC: 5.1 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65

24H: 15/05/2023 12 UTC: 5.4 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 16/05/2023 00 UTC: 6.2 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 65

48H: 16/05/2023 12 UTC: 7.3 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SO: 215 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 17/05/2023 00 UTC: 8.2 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SO: 230 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 140 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

72H: 17/05/2023 12 UTC: 8.9 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SO: 230 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/05/2023 12 UTC: 10.5 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 305 SO: 250 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 165 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

120H: 19/05/2023 12 UTC: 11.7 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SO: 250 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 155 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=3.0-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES SIX HEURES, L'ORGANISATION DE LA CONVECTION
PROFONDE S'EST AMELIORE PRES DU CENTRE, EN DEPIT DE L'EVOLUTION
DIURNE DE LA CONVECTION. LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES ( GCOM
0817Z ET SSMIS 1050Z) MONTRENT UN OEIL EN 37GHZ ET LES PREMICES D'UN
OEIL EN 85GHZ, CONFIRMANT LE CLASSEMENT EN TTM.


EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, DANS LES PROCHAINS JOURS LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
CONTINUER SE DIRIGER GLOBALEMENT VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST A SUD-OUEST
SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD-EST. A PARTIR
DU MILIEU DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, DES FLUX DIRECTEURS PLUS
CONTRADICTOIRES PILOTES PAR LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE ET LES
DORSALES SUBTROPICALES, DEVRAIENT OCCASIONNER UN RALENTISSEMENT DE
SON DEPLACEMENT, ET S'ACCOMPAGNANT D'UNE HAUSSE DE L'INCERTITUDE SUR
LA TRAJECTOIRE EN DEUXIEME PARTIE DE PERIODE, VISIBLE SUR LES
PREVISIONS D'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES IFS ET GFS. LE CMRS SUIT UN
COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MODELES EUROPEENS ET AMERICAINS, MAIS EN
S'APPROCHANT DAVANTAGE DU SCENARIO DETERMINISTE EUROPEEN, MEME SI LE
PANACHE DE LA PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE D'IFS SEMBLE PLUS DISPERSE SUR LE
DERNIER RESEAU DISPONIBLE.
LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RESTER AU LARGE DE L'EST DE L'ARCHIPEL DES CHAGOS
SANS MENACE DIRECTE POUR LES AUTRES ILES HABITEES DU BASSIN.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, L'ENVIRONNEMENT DEVIENT PROGRESSIVEMENT PLUS
FAVORABLE AU DEVELOPPEMENT DU SYSTEME, ET PLUS FRANCHEMENT A PARTIR
DE LUNDI, AVEC LA BAISSE DE CE CISAILLEMENT, L'AMELIORATION DE LA
CONVERGENCE DE BASSES COUCHES COTE EQUATORIAL ET LE MAINTIEN D'UNE
BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE.
LA PREVISION DU CMRS ENVISAGE DONC UN DEVELOPPEMENT D'ABORD LENT PUIS
PLUS RAPIDE EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, POUVANT ABOUTIR AU STADE
DE CYCLONE TROPICAL, VOIRE STADE INFERIEUR DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, CE QUI EST SUGGERE PAR LA PLUPART DES
MODELES NOTAMMENT IFS ET GFS, AVEC NEANMOINS UNE DIVERGENCE NOTABLE
ENTRE LES DEUX MODELES, AVEC UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS PRECOSE POUR
GFS, CE QUI EXPLIQUE EN PARITE LES DIVERGENCES DE TRAJECTOIRES EN
DEUXIEME PARTIE DE LA PERIODE DE PREVISION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 141221
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/10/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION 2023/05/14 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 4.9 S / 81.0 E
(FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 165 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/05/15 00 UTC: 5.1 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

24H: 2023/05/15 12 UTC: 5.4 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2023/05/16 00 UTC: 6.2 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 65

48H: 2023/05/16 12 UTC: 7.3 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2023/05/17 00 UTC: 8.2 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2023/05/17 12 UTC: 8.9 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/05/18 12 UTC: 10.5 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 305 SW: 250 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2023/05/19 12 UTC: 11.7 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=3.0-

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
HAS IMPROVED NEAR THE CENTER, IN SPITE OF THE DIURNAL EVOLUTION OF
THE CONVECTION. THE LAST MICROWAVE IMAGES (GCOM 0817Z AND SSMIS
1050Z) SHOW AN EYE IN 37GHZ AND THE FIRST SIGNS OF AN EYE IN 85GHZ,
CONFIRMING THE CLASSIFICATION IN TTM.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST UNDER THE EFFECT OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, MORE CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS DRIVEN BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGES, SHOULD CAUSE A SLOWING DOWN OF ITS
MOVEMENT, AND ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE OF THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TRAJECTORY IN THE SECOND PART OF THE PERIOD, VISIBLE ON THE ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS OF THE IFS AND GFS MODELS. THE CMRS FOLLOWS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN MODELS, BUT CLOSER TO THE EUROPEAN
DETERMINISTIC SCENARIO, EVEN IF THE PLUME OF THE IFS ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE MORE DISPERSED ON THE LAST AVAILABLE NETWORK.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN OFF THE EASTERN CHAGOS ARCHIPELAGO WITH NO
DIRECT THREAT TO OTHER INHABITED ISLANDS IN THE BASIN.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, L'ENVIRONNEMENT DEVIENT PROGRESSIVEMENT PLUS
FAVORABLE AU DEVELOPPEMENT DU SYSTEME, ET PLUS FRANCHEMENT A PARTIR
DE LUNDI, AVEC LA BAISSE DE CE CISAILLEMENT, L'AMELIORATION DE LA
CONVERGENCE DE BASSES COUCHES COTE EQUATORIAL ET LE MAINTIEN D'UNE
BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE.
LA PREVISION DU CMRS ENVISAGE DONC UN DEVELOPPEMENT D'ABORD LENT PUIS
PLUS RAPIDE EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, POUVANT ABOUTIR AU STADE
DE CYCLONE TROPICAL, VOIRE STADE INFERIEUR DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, CE QUI EST SUGGERE PAR LA PLUPART DES
MODELES NOTAMMENT IFS ET GFS, AVEC NEANMOINS UNE DIVERGENCE NOTABLE
ENTRE LES DEUX MODELES, AVEC UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS PRECOSE POUR
GFS, CE QUI EXPLIQUE EN PARITE LES DIVERGENCES DE TRAJECTOIRES EN
DEUXIEME PARTIE DE LA PERIODE DE PREVISION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 141207
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/05/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 14/05/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FABIEN) 999 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 4.9 S / 81.0 E
(FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, AND UP TO 650 NM IN THE
EASTERN SECTOR.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/05/15 AT 00 UTC:
5.1 S / 79.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2023/05/15 AT 12 UTC:
5.4 S / 77.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 140900
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 230514080415
2023051406 19S FABIEN 001 01 255 11 SATL 060
T000 046S 0822E 035 R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 051S 0802E 045 R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 055S 0783E 055 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 062S 0767E 065 R064 000 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 072S 0754E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 091S 0740E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 104S 0724E 085 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 110S 0714E 080 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 4.6S 82.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 4.6S 82.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 5.1S 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 5.5S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 6.2S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 7.2S 75.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 9.1S 74.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 10.4S 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 11.0S 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 4.7S 81.7E.
14MAY23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 598
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023051406Z IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.
//
1923051206 22S 896E 15
1923051212 24S 886E 15
1923051218 26S 876E 20
1923051300 28S 865E 25
1923051306 28S 856E 25
1923051312 33S 850E 30
1923051318 40S 842E 30
1923051400 43S 833E 30
1923051406 46S 822E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 4.6S 82.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 4.6S 82.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 5.1S 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 5.5S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 6.2S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 7.2S 75.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 9.1S 74.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 10.4S 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 11.0S 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 4.7S 81.7E.
14MAY23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FABIEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 598
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023051406Z IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 140629
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/10/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 14/05/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 4.8 S / 82.4 E
(QUATRE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1001 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 185 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 14/05/2023 18 UTC: 5.1 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 140 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

24H: 15/05/2023 06 UTC: 5.6 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 195 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 95 NO: 65

36H: 15/05/2023 18 UTC: 6.0 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 55

48H: 16/05/2023 06 UTC: 6.8 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SO: 185 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 16/05/2023 18 UTC: 8.0 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

72H: 17/05/2023 06 UTC: 8.8 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SO: 250 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/05/2023 06 UTC: 10.4 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SO: 240 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

120H: 19/05/2023 06 UTC: 11.1 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SO: 250 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SO: 150 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=3.0-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES SIX HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE S'EST
AMELIORE. APRES UN FORT BOOST DE CONVECTION AU DESSUS DU CENTRE EN
MILEU DE NUIT, LA CONVECTION S'ORGANISE EN VIRGULE PRES DU CENTRE.
LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES ( SSMIS 2349Z ET 0034Z) MONTRENT DES
SIGNES DE COURBURE PLUS PRONONCES. EN CONSEQUENCE LE SYSTEME 10 A ETE
RECLASSE EN TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ET BAPTISE FABIEN A 06UTC.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, DANS LES PROCHAINS JOURS LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
CONTINUER SE DIRIGER VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST A SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET
D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD-EST. A PARTIR DU MILIEU DE
SEMAINE PROCHAINE, DES FLUX DIRECTEURS PLUS CONTRADICTOIRES PILOTES
PAR LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE ET LES DORSALES SUBTROPICALES,
DEVRAIENT OCCASIONNER UN RALENTISSEMENT DE SON DEPLACEMENT, CE QUI
S'ACCOMPAGNE D'UNE HAUSSE DE L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE. LE CMRS SUIT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MODELES EUROPEENS ET
AMERICAINS, MAIS EN S'APPROCHANT DAVANTAGE DU SCENARIO EUROPEEN, QUI
SEMBLE MIEUX CALE A L'ETAT INITIAL. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RESTER AU
LARGE DE L'EST DE L'ARCHIPEL DES CHAGOS SANS MENACE DIRECTE POUR LES
AUTRES ILES HABITEES DU BASSIN.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE DEVELOPPEMENT DU SYSTEME A ETE LIMITE PAR
LE CISAILLEMENT MODERE, LA FAIBLE LATITUDE (AU NORD DE 5S) AINSI
QU'UNE MOINS BONNE ALIMENTATION EN SURFACE COTE EQUATORIAL (EN LIEN
AVEC LE CYCLONE MOCHA DANS L'HEMISPHERE NORD). MAIS A PARTIR
D'AUJOURD'HUI, PROGRESSIVEMENT ET SURTOUT A PARTIR DE LUNDI, AVEC LA
BAISSE DE CE CISAILLEMENT, L'AMELIORATION DE LA CONVERGENCE DE BASSES
COUCHES COTE EQUATORIAL ET LE MAINTIEN D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE, UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS FRANCHE EST PREVUE. LE PREVISION
CMRS ENVISAGE DONC UN DEVELOPPEMENT D'ABORD LENT PUIS PLUS RAPIDE EN
DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, POUVANT ABOUTIR AU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, CE QUI EST SUGGERE PAR LA PLUPART DES
MODELES NOTAMMENT IFS ET GFS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 140629
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/10/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION 2023/05/14 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 4.8 S / 82.4 E
(FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 185 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/05/14 18 UTC: 5.1 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

24H: 2023/05/15 06 UTC: 5.6 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 195 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 95 NW: 65

36H: 2023/05/15 18 UTC: 6.0 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55

48H: 2023/05/16 06 UTC: 6.8 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2023/05/16 18 UTC: 8.0 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2023/05/17 06 UTC: 8.8 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SW: 250 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/05/18 06 UTC: 10.4 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

120H: 2023/05/19 06 UTC: 11.1 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=3.0-

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED. WITH
STRONGER CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. AFTER A STRONG CONVECTION BOOST
OVER THE CENTER IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT, THE CONVECTION IS
ORGANIZED IN COMMA NEAR THE CENTER. THE LAST MICROWAVE IMAGES ( 2349Z
AND 0034Z SSMIS) SHOW SHARPER SIGNS OF CURVATURE. CONSEQUENTLY SYSTEM
10 HAS BEEN RECLASSIFIED AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AND NAMED
FABIEN AT 06UTC.

IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY, IN THE COMING DAYS THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON
MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, MORE CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS DRIVEN BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGES SHOULD CAUSE A SLOWING DOWN OF ITS
MOVEMENT, LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN UNCERTAINTY ON THE LATE TRACK.
THE RSMC FORECAST REFLECTS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE EUROPEAN AND
AMERICAN MODELS, BUT CLOSER TO THE EUROPEAN SCENARIO, WHICH SEEMS TO
BE MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE INITIAL STATE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN EAST OF THE CHAGOS ARCHIPELAGO WITH NO DIRECT THREAT TO THE
OTHER INHABITED ISLANDS OF THE BASIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN LIMITED
BY THE MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, THE LOW LATITUDE (NORTH OF
5S) AS WELL AS A WEAKER SURFACE FEEDING ON THE EQUATORIAL SIDE ( DUE
TO CYCLONE MOCHA IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE). BUT PROGRESSIVELY TODAY
AND MOSTLY FROM MONDAY, WITH THE DECREASE OF THIS SHEAR, THE
IMPROVEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE GOOD ALOFT
DIVERGENCE, A STRONGER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. THE RSMC FORECAST
THUS ANTICIPATES AN INITIALLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT BECOMING MORE RAPID
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD LEAD THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN MID-WEEK. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY MOST MODELS, NOTABLY IFS
AND GFS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 140608
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/05/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 14/05/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FABIEN) 1001 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 4.8 S / 82.4 E
(FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/05/14 AT 18 UTC:
5.1 S / 80.3 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2023/05/15 AT 06 UTC:
5.6 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>