Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for IDALIA-23
in United States

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Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 022032
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
500 PM AST Sat Sep 02 2023

Winds on Bermuda have been gradually decreasing since earlier this
morning, and weather stations on the island are no longer measuring
sustained tropical-storm-force winds (at standard elevation).
Gusts to tropical storm force will likely continue on Bermuda into
tonight while Idalia pulls away from the island, but the Bermuda
Weather Service has elected to discontinue the Tropical Storm
Warning in favor of local warnings. Therefore, this will be the
last NHC advisory on Idalia.

Earlier ASCAT showed that maximum winds remain 50 kt on the
northwestern side of the attached frontal boundary. Little change
in strength is expected during the next few days. The
extratropical cyclone is likely to occlude again in about 3 days
and begin to fill, at which point weakening is expected. The NHC
intensity forecast is between the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.

Idalia appears to have turned toward the east-northeast, or 075/6
kt. A shortwave trough is expected to move off the coast of New
England on Sunday, causing the cyclone to turn northeastward and
the northward and speed up over the next 2-3 days. Once it
occludes, it is expected to slow down and meander to the southeast
of Nova Scotia on days 4 and 5.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Swells from Idalia are forecast to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions along portions of the east coast of the
United States through Labor Day weekend.

2. Gusts to tropical storm force are likely to continue on Bermuda
through tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 32.0N 62.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 03/0600Z 32.5N 61.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 03/1800Z 34.0N 60.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 04/0600Z 36.0N 58.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 04/1800Z 38.2N 57.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 05/0600Z 40.1N 57.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/1800Z 41.3N 58.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 06/1800Z 43.2N 60.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/1800Z 45.1N 59.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 022031
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
500 PM AST Sat Sep 02 2023

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR BERMUDA, THIS IS THE
LAST NHC ADVISORY...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS FROM IDALIA EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 62.7W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia
was located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 62.7 West. Idalia
is moving toward the east-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn
toward the northeast and then north at a faster forward speed is
expected through early next week. Idalia will continue moving away
from Bermuda tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Gusts to tropical storm force are likely to continue on
Bermuda through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia will affect the southeastern U.S.
coast and Bermuda during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 022031
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
2100 UTC SAT SEP 02 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 62.7W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.
34 KT.......180NE 0SE 120SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 240SE 420SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 62.7W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 63.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 32.5N 61.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 0SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 34.0N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 90SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 36.0N 58.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 110SE 110SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 38.2N 57.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 40.1N 57.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 41.3N 58.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 110SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 43.2N 60.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 45.1N 59.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 62.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 021747
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
200 PM AST Sat Sep 02 2023

...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS FROM IDALIA EXPECTED ALONG THE
U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 63.4W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia
was located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 63.4 West. Idalia is
moving toward the east near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through the day. A faster northeastward
motion is forecast to begin on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the
north-northeast and north on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast
track, Idalia will remain near Bermuda today, and then begin to move
away from the island tonight and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center and are occurring on Bermuda.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda through
early Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia will affect the southeastern U.S.
coast and Bermuda during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 021450
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 02 2023

Although the center of Idalia has moved to the southeast of
Bermuda, the island is experiencing the cyclone's strongest winds,
which are located on the northwestern side of the frontal boundary.
Deep convection persists to the northeast of the center, but the
system is still extratropical due to the presence of attached
fronts. The initial wind speed remains 50 kt based on continuity.

Idalia's initial motion is eastward, or 100/8 kt, and a relatively
slow eastward motion is expected to continue today. A shortwave
trough is forecast to move off the coast of New England and cut off
from the mid-latitude flow, which should cause Idalia to accelerate
toward the northeast and then north during the next few days.
Another slow down is likely on days 4 and 5 a couple of hundred
miles southeast of Nova Scotia when Idalia becomes collocated with
the cut-off low. The NHC track forecast is a bit east of the
previous forecast, but not as far east as the HCCA aid.

Even though Idalia is producing what could be considered organized
deep convection, global models fields are fairly unanimous that the
cyclone will not shed its associated frontal boundaries. Since the
most likely scenario is that Idalia will remain an extratropical
cyclone, a transition to a tropical or subtropical cyclone is no
longer indicated in the official forecast during the short term
(although it still can't be completely ruled out). Little change
in strength is anticipated during the next day or two, but gradual
weakening is forecast toward the end of the forecast period when
Idalia goes through another occlusion and fills south of Nova
Scotia.

Even though Idalia is no longer explicitly forecast to transition
to a tropical or subtropical cyclone, NHC advisories will continue
until tropical storm conditions diminish on Bermuda and the
Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued (most likely some time
Sunday morning).


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue in Bermuda through early
Sunday.

2. Swells from Idalia are forecast to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions along portions of the east coast of the
United States through Labor Day weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 31.6N 63.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 03/0000Z 31.7N 62.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 03/1200Z 32.9N 60.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 04/0000Z 34.7N 58.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 04/1200Z 36.8N 57.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 05/0000Z 39.0N 56.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/1200Z 40.8N 57.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 06/1200Z 42.3N 58.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/1200Z 44.3N 58.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 021450
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 02 2023

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON BERMUDA
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 63.5W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Idalia was located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 63.5 West.
Idalia is moving toward the east near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through the day. A faster
northeastward motion is forecast to begin on Sunday, followed by a
turn toward the north-northeast and north on Monday and Tuesday.
On the forecast track, Idalia will remain near Bermuda today, and
then begin to move away from the island tonight and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center and are occurring on Bermuda. An elevated
observing site at the National Museum of Bermuda recently reported
sustained winds of 57 mph (91 km/h) and a gust to 68 mph (109 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda through
early Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia will affect the southeastern U.S.
coast and Bermuda during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 021449
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
1500 UTC SAT SEP 02 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 63.5W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
34 KT.......180NE 0SE 120SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 240SE 420SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 63.5W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 63.8W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 31.7N 62.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 0SE 90SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 32.9N 60.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...190NE 70SE 90SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 34.7N 58.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 90SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 36.8N 57.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 80SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 39.0N 56.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 70SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 40.8N 57.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 110SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 42.3N 58.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 44.3N 58.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 63.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 021146
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
800 AM AST Sat Sep 02 2023

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 64.4W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia
was located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 64.4 West. Idalia
is moving toward the east-southeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this
general motion is expected through today. A faster northeastward
motion is forecast to begin on Sunday, and this motion should
continue into Monday. On the forecast track, Idalia will remain
near Bermuda today, and then begin to move away from the island
tonight and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few
days. Idalia could transition to a subtropical storm later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a gust
to 56 mph (91 km/h) were reported at St. George's Pier on Bermuda.
An elevated observing site at the National Museum of Bermuda
recently reported sustained winds of 64 mph (104 km/h) with a gust
to 79 mph (128 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda through
early Sunday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches, or 25 to 75 millimeters, across Bermuda through the weekend.
The heavy rainfall may cause areas of flash and urban flooding on
the island.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia will affect the southeastern U.S.
coast and Bermuda during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 020848
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
500 AM AST Sat Sep 02 2023

Although there has been an increase in convective activity
associated with Idalia overnight, the cyclone remains attached to
a frontal boundary, and is therefore still analyzed as an
extratropical low. The cyclone appears to have deepened slightly
with the minimum pressure estimated to be around 999 mb, based on
surface observations from Bermuda. With the slight deepening,
the initial wind speed has been increased to 50 kt. Winds across
Bermuda have increased overnight with the official observing site
at the LF Wade International Airport reporting wind gusts as high
as 43 kt. Some of the elevated weather stations on the island
have reported sustained tropical-storm-force winds.

The global models indicate that little change in strength will
occur during the next day or so. The guidance also suggests that
Idalia may not completely shed its frontal structure despite the
presence of deep convection to the northeast of its center today.
As a result, the official forecast now shows Idalia potentially
becoming a subtropical cyclone for a fairly short period of time
this weekend, but confidence in that is low. Regardless of
Idalia's status, tropical-storm-force winds will continue over
Bermuda through tonight. Later in the period, the cyclone should
gradually weaken while it moves northward over the central
Atlantic.

The forward speed of Idalia has slowed considerably overnight, with
the initial motion estimate of eastward or 090/5 kt. A slow
eastward motion is expected today, but a shortwave trough moving
off the coast of the northeastern United States tonight should
cause Idalia to begin moving northeastward on Sunday. By late
Monday the cyclone is expected to turn northward around the eastern
side of a developing cut-off low south of Nova Scotia. The track
guidance is in somewhat better agreement than it was a day ago, and
the latest NHC track prediction is near the center of the model
envelope.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue in Bermuda into tonight.
Heavy rainfall may cause areas of flash and urban flooding on the
island.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 31.7N 64.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 02/1800Z 31.5N 63.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 03/0600Z 32.1N 62.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 33.6N 60.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 04/0600Z 35.7N 58.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 04/1800Z 37.7N 57.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/0600Z 40.0N 57.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 06/0600Z 41.6N 58.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/0600Z 43.5N 59.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 020847
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
500 AM AST Sat Sep 02 2023

...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OCCURRING ON BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 64.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia
was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 64.6 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 6 mph (9 km/h),
and this general motion is expected today. A faster northeastward
motion is forecast to begin on Sunday, and this motion should
continue into Monday. On the forecast track, Idalia will remain
near Bermuda today, and then begin to move away from the island
tonight and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.
Idalia could transition to a subtropical storm later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km)
from the center. A wind gust to 49 mph (80 km/h) was recently
reported at the LF Wade International Airport on Bermuda. An
elevated observing site at the National Museum of Bermuda recently
reported sustained winds of 55 mph (89 km/h) with a gust to 69
mph (111 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda through
early Sunday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches, or 25 to 75 millimeters, across Bermuda through the weekend.
The heavy rainfall may cause areas of flash and urban flooding on
the island.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia will affect the southeastern U.S.
coast and Bermuda during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 020847
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
0900 UTC SAT SEP 02 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 64.6W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 140SE 160SW 190NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 240SE 360SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 64.6W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 64.8W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 31.5N 63.9W...SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 100SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 32.1N 62.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 80SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 33.6N 60.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 80SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 35.7N 58.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 80SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 37.7N 57.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 80SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 40.0N 57.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 80SE 90SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 41.6N 58.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 43.5N 59.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 64.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 020550
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
200 AM AST Sat Sep 02 2023

...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS REPORTED ON BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 64.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia
was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 64.9 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 14 mph (22
km/h) and this general trajectory at a slower forward speed is
expected through today. A turn toward the northeast is forecast on
Sunday. On the forecast track, Idalia will remain near Bermuda
today, and then begin to move away from the island on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few
days. Idalia could transition to a tropical or subtropical storm
later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km)
from the center. A wind gust to 40 mph (65 km/h) was recently
reported at the LF Wade International Airport on Bermuda. An
elevated observing site at the National Museum of Bermuda recently
reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph
(87 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda through
tonight.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5
inches, or 75 to 125 millimeters, across Bermuda through the
weekend. The heavy rainfall will likely cause areas of flash and
urban flooding on the island.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia will affect the southeastern U.S.
coast and Bermuda during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 020242
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that Idalia
remains an extratropical cyclone with frontal features extending
through the center. However, deep convection has recently formed
just to the northeast of the center, and that could signal the
beginning of a transition to a subtropical or tropical cyclone.
The initial intensity is held at 45 kt.

The cyclone is still moving eastward, or 100 degrees, at about 14
kt. A continued eastward motion, but at a much slower pace, is
expected on Saturday as the system separates from a deep-layer
trough. After that time, a turn to the northeast and then the
north is forecast as the cyclone cuts off from the progressive flow
over the north Atlantic. The NHC track forecast is a little
slower than the previous one to be in better agreement with the
latest consensus models.

GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite images suggest that deep
convection will continue to increase near the center overnight, and
that could influence Idalia's transition to a tropical or
subtropical cyclone on Saturday. There could also be some increase
in strength during that time. However, by late in the weekend,
very strong southwesterly shear is expected to affect the system
and that should end the opportunity for strengthening and cause the
system to transition back to an extratropical cyclone. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and near the
middle of the guidance envelope.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Bermuda on Saturday.
Heavy rainfall will likely cause areas of flash and urban flooding
on the island through the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 31.8N 65.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 02/1200Z 31.6N 64.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 03/0000Z 31.8N 62.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 32.8N 61.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 34.5N 59.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 04/1200Z 36.7N 58.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/0000Z 38.8N 58.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 06/0000Z 41.1N 58.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/0000Z 42.6N 58.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 020242
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

...IDALIA NEAR BERMUDA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED THERE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 65.3W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Idalia was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 65.3 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 16 mph (26
km/h) and this general trajectory at a slower forward speed is
expected through Saturday as it remains near Bermuda. A turn
toward the northeast is forecast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.
Idalia could transition to a tropical or subtropical storm on
Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda on
Saturday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5
inches, or 75 to 125 millimeters, across Bermuda through the
weekend. The heavy rainfall will likely cause areas of flash and
urban flooding on the island.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia will affect the southeastern U.S.
coast and Bermuda during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 020241
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
0300 UTC SAT SEP 02 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 65.3W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 180SW 190NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 360SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 65.3W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 65.6W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 31.6N 64.3W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 80SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 31.8N 62.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 80SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 32.8N 61.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 80SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 34.5N 59.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 80SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 36.7N 58.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 80SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 38.8N 58.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 41.1N 58.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 42.6N 58.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 65.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 012330
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
800 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

...IDALIA NEAR BERMUDA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED THERE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 66.0W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia
was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 66.0 West. Idalia
is moving toward the east-southeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
general trajectory at a slower forward speed is expected through
early Saturday. A turn toward the east and then northeast is
forecast over the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of
Idalia will move near Bermuda on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next few
days. Idalia could transition to a tropical or subtropical storm on
Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by
Saturday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5
inches, or 75 to 125 millimeters, across Bermuda through the
weekend. The heavy rainfall will likely cause areas of flash and
urban flooding on the island.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia will affect the southeastern U.S.
coast and Bermuda during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 012035
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
500 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

Idalia is still an extratropical cyclone lacking deep convection.
ASCAT data from a few hours ago showed winds of 40-45 kt to the
northwest of the center, so the initial intensity is set at 45 kt.

The initial motion is still toward the east-southeast (105 degrees),
but the forward speed has slowed down to about 13 kt. Idalia is
becoming collocated with a developing mid-level low, and it is
therefore expected to slow down further and turn eastward during
the next 24 hours as it moves near Bermuda. After 24 hours, a
shortwave trough is forecast to move off the coast of New England
and kick Idalia faster toward the northeast through day 3. But
then that shortwave trough is expected to cut off and cause Idalia
to slow down again on days 4 and 5 while it moves generally
northward. The NHC track forecast is shifted a bit to the left of
the previous forecast based on the latest track guidance, and to
account for a slight adjustment to the initial position.

ECMWF- and GFS-based simulated satellite imagery insist that deep
convection will redevelop with Idalia tonight or on Saturday as the
system moves over warmer waters and while vertical shear is
relatively low. However, the associated frontal zone does not
appear to completely dissipate in the global model fields, and FSU
phase-space diagrams indicate that the cyclone is likely to have a
symmetric but shallow warm core. The NHC forecast continues to show
Idalia becoming a tropical cyclone on Saturday, however it is
possible that it could be closer to the subtropical side of the
spectrum. Some strengthening is possible during the
tropical/subtropical phase, and the NHC intensity forecast lies
close to the IVCN intensity consensus. Idalia is then expected to
become fully extratropical again by day 3.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Bermuda by Saturday.
Heavy rainfall will likely cause areas of flash and urban flooding
on the island through the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 32.0N 66.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 02/0600Z 31.7N 65.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 02/1800Z 31.5N 64.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 03/0600Z 32.2N 62.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 33.7N 60.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 35.6N 59.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 37.8N 58.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/1800Z 40.9N 58.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 06/1800Z 42.0N 58.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 012035
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
500 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

...HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 66.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia
was located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 66.5 West. Idalia
is moving toward the east-southeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
general trajectory at a slower forward speed is expected through
early Saturday. A turn toward the east and then northeast is
forecast over the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of
Idalia will move near or to the south of Bermuda on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is forecast through early Saturday.
Little change in strength is expected during the next few days.
Idalia could transition to a tropical or subtropical storm on
Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by
Saturday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5
inches, or 75 to 125 millimeters, across Bermuda through the
weekend. The heavy rainfall will likely cause areas of flash and
urban flooding on the island.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia will affect the southeastern U.S.
coast and Bermuda during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 012035
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
2100 UTC FRI SEP 01 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 66.5W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......210NE 120SE 180SW 190NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 360SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 66.5W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 67.0W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 31.7N 65.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...190NE 50SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 31.5N 64.1W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...180NE 40SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 32.2N 62.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...180NE 80SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 33.7N 60.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 35.6N 59.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 37.8N 58.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 40.9N 58.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 42.0N 58.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 66.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 011738
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
200 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON BERMUDA ON
SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 67.2W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia
was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 67.2 West. Idalia
is moving toward the east-southeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
general trajectory at a slower forward speed is expected through
Saturday. A turn toward the east and then northeast is forecast
late Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of
Idalia will move near or to the south of Bermuda on Saturday.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is forecast through early Saturday.
Restrengthening is possible over the weekend, and Idalia could
transition back to a tropical storm on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 41048 a couple of hundred miles west of
Bermuda recently measured a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and
a gust to 49 mph (79 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by
Saturday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5
inches, or 75 to 125 millimeters, across Bermuda through Sunday
night. The heavy rainfall will likely cause areas of flash and urban
flooding on the island.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia will affect the southeastern U.S.
coast and Bermuda during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 011438
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

Idalia is not producing deep convection and remains an extratropical
cyclone, with the strongest winds located along the northwestern
side of the attached frontal boundary. The initial intensity
remains 50 kt based on continuity from the previous advisory.
Scatterometer should hit the area of strongest winds later this
morning and give us a better idea on the intensity.

The cyclone may be finally slowing down a bit, and the initial
motion estimate is east-southeastward (110 degrees) at 15 kt.
Additional deceleration is expected during the next 36 hours while
the center turns eastward and moves near or to the south of
Bermuda. A shortwave trough is forecast to move off the coast of
New England by early Sunday (about 48 hours), and that feature
should turn Idalia toward the northeast at a faster speed by day 3.
Even then, there is disagreement among the models whether this
trough will pull Idalia quickly northward (e.g., the ECMWF) or if
it will leave Idalia behind (e.g, the GFS). The NHC track forecast
therefore shows a slower north or north-northeast motion on days 4
and 5, leaning toward the various consensus aids.

There remains significant uncertainty on what type of cyclone
Idalia will be during the next 3 days. On one hand, simulated
satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models shows deep
convection redeveloping near Idalia's center on Saturday once the
cyclone reaches warmer waters. On the other hand, global model
fields show the thickness gradient near the front weakening, but
they don't necessarily show Idalia shedding all of its frontal
features. To maintain continuity from previous forecasts, the NHC
forecast shows Idalia regaining tropical storm status in about 24
hours while it is near Bermuda, and some reintensification is
possible after that time. Model fields show the temperature
gradient tightening again as Idalia goes through a possible
occlusion in 3-4 days, and the forecast therefore shows an
extratropical cyclone again on day 4.

Based on the updated forecast, the Bermuda Weather Service has
issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the island.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Bermuda by Saturday.
Heavy rainfall will likely cause areas of flash and urban flooding
on the island.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 31.9N 67.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 02/0000Z 31.3N 66.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 02/1200Z 30.9N 64.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 03/0000Z 31.1N 63.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 32.0N 61.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 33.5N 59.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 35.1N 58.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 38.3N 57.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 06/1200Z 40.1N 57.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 011437
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

...IDALIA MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 67.9W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has upgraded to the Tropical Storm
Watch for Bermuda to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Idalia was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 67.9 West.
Idalia is moving toward the east-southeast near 17 mph (28 km/h),
and this general trajectory at a slower forward speed is expected
through Saturday. A turn toward the east and then northeast is
forecast late Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of Idalia will move near or to the south of Bermuda on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast through early Saturday.
Restrengthening is possible over the weekend, and Idalia is expected
to transition back to a tropical storm on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by
Saturday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5
inches, or 75 to 125 millimeters, across Bermuda through Sunday
night. The heavy rainfall will likely cause areas of flash and urban
flooding on the island.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia will affect the southeastern U.S.
coast and Bermuda during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 011437
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
1500 UTC FRI SEP 01 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 67.9W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
34 KT.......210NE 150SE 170SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 360SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 67.9W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 68.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 31.3N 66.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 70SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 30.9N 64.9W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...160NE 0SE 70SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 31.1N 63.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 50SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 32.0N 61.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 33.5N 59.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 35.1N 58.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 38.3N 57.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 40.1N 57.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 67.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 011136
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
800 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

...IDALIA TURNS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 69.0W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia
was located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 69.0 West. Idalia
is moving toward the east-southeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). An
east-southeastward to eastward motion at a much slower forward speed
is expected during the next 24 hours. An east-northeastward motion
is expected to begin over the weekend. On the forecast track,
Idalia will approach Bermuda over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast through early Saturday.
Restrengthening is possible over the weekend, and Idalia is expected
to transition back to a tropical storm on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda by
Saturday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5
inches, or 75 to 125 millimeters, across Bermuda through Sunday
night. The heavy rainfall will likely cause areas of flash and urban
flooding on the island.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia will affect the southeastern U.S.
coast during the next couple of days and will reach Bermuda today.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 010844
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
500 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

Idalia remains an extratropical cyclone with a front extending to
the northeast of the center. The system also continues to be devoid
of deep convection. An earlier ASCAT-B scatterometer overpass
caught the western portion of the circulation and it revealed peak
winds of around 45 kt. Based on that data, the initial intensity
has been lowered to 50 kt for this advisory.

The cyclone appears to be turning east-southeast and slowing down
as forecast. An even slower east-southeast to eastward motion is
expected during the next 24 to 36 hours as a mid-latitude trough
passes to the north of the system. Another shortwave trough
exiting the Mid-Atlantic coast of the United States on Sunday is
expected to cause Idalia to begin moving faster toward the northeast
later in the weekend. There is tremendous spread in the track
guidance after 72 hours. The ECMWF takes Idalia northward ahead of
the aforementioned trough, while the GFS keeps a much weaker
cyclone meandering over the central subtropical Atlantic. The
latest NHC track forecast lies between these extremes and is close
to the multi-model consensus aids and the GFS ensemble mean.

Additional weakening is expected during the next 12-24 hours.
After that time, simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF
indicate that deep convection is likely to return, potentially
transitioning Idalia back to a tropical cyclone when it is near
Bermuda. Some slight re-strengthening is predicted during that
time. Later in the forecast period, little change in strength is
forecast as vertical wind shear increases and Idalia is likely to
transition to an extratropical cyclone once again. The
extratropical transition has been moved up to 96 hours, but the
latest ECMWF run suggests that the transition could occur much
sooner. Given the differences in the global models regarding the
structure and track of Idalia after 72 hours, there is significant
uncertainty in the long range track and intensity forecast for
this system.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bermuda by Saturday.
Heavy rainfall will likely lead to areas of flash and urban
flooding on the island.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 32.6N 69.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 01/1800Z 31.8N 67.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 02/0600Z 31.0N 66.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 02/1800Z 31.0N 65.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 03/0600Z 31.7N 63.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 33.2N 61.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 34.6N 60.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 37.0N 58.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 06/0600Z 38.5N 59.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 010844
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
500 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

...IDALIA TURNS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 69.8W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia
was located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 69.8 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-southeast near 16
mph (26 km/h). An east-southeastward to eastward motion at a
much slower forward speed is expected during the 24 hours. An
east-northeastward motion is expected to begin over the weekend. On
the forecast track, Idalia will approach Bermuda over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast through early Saturday.
Restrengthening is possible over the weekend, and Idalia is expected
to transition back to a tropical storm on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda by
Saturday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5
inches, or 75 to 125 millimeters, across Bermuda through Sunday
night. The heavy rainfall will likely cause areas of flash and urban
flooding on the island.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia will affect the southeastern U.S.
coast during the next couple of days and will reach Bermuda today.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 010843
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
0900 UTC FRI SEP 01 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 69.8W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT.......200NE 180SE 180SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 69.8W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 70.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 31.8N 67.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 90SE 140SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 31.0N 66.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...160NE 0SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 31.0N 65.2W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 31.7N 63.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 40SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 33.2N 61.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 34.6N 60.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 37.0N 58.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 38.5N 59.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 69.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 010541
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 01 2023

...IDALIA FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN TODAY...
...EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 70.6W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia
was located near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 70.6 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 21 mph (31
km/h). A turn toward the east-southeast is expected today,
accompanied by a considerable decrease in forward speed. A slower
east or east-northeastward motion is expected over the weekend. On
the forecast track, Idalia will approach Bermuda over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast through early Saturday.
Restrengthening is possible over the weekend, and Idalia is expected
to transition back to a tropical storm on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: Water levels in the Outer Banks of North Carolina are
expected to recede this morning. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Gusts to tropical storm force are expected to continue along
the coast of North Carolina through early this morning.

Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda by Saturday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 6
inches, or 100 to 150 millimeters, across Bermuda through Sunday
night. The heavy rainfall may cause areas of flash and urban
flooding on the island.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia will affect the southeastern U.S.
coast during the next couple of days and will reach Bermuda today.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 010244
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023

Satellite images indicate that Idalia continues to exhibit the
appearance of an extratropical cyclone with a frontal boundary
extending from the center northeastward. There is almost no deep
convection associated with the system, but there continues to be
areas of heavy rain along the front extending to near the coast of
North Carolina. The initial intensity remains 55 kt.

The cyclone is moving eastward at about 20 kt. A slightly slower
motion to the east-southeast is expected during the next day or two
as the system continues to move near the base of a mid- to
upper-level trough. However, the steering currents are expected to
weaken over the weekend as the storm approaches Bermuda, which
should cause a significant slow down. A turn to the northeast is
forecast late in the weekend when another shortwave trough
approaches the system. The guidance is slower this cycle, and the
NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly.

Gradual weakening is expected through early Saturday as the system
separates from the mid- to upper-level trough. However, as Idalia
transitions back to a tropical cyclone near Bermuda, slow
strengthening seems likely. Based on the GFS and ECMWF models,
Idalia will likely transition back to an extratropical cyclone in
about 5 days. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous
one and fairly close to the GFS model.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bermuda by Saturday.
Heavy rainfall will likely lead to areas of flash and urban
flooding on the island.

2. Water levels are expected to subside and winds are expected to
diminish along the coast of North Carolina through early Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 33.1N 71.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 01/1200Z 32.3N 69.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 02/0000Z 31.1N 67.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 02/1200Z 30.6N 65.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 03/0000Z 31.3N 64.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H 03/1200Z 32.3N 63.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 34.3N 61.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 36.8N 59.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 38.7N 61.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 010243
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023

...IDALIA PULLING AWAY FROM NORTH CAROLINA...
...EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 71.5W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Idalia was located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 71.5 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 23 mph (37
km/h). A turn toward the east-southeast and east is expected on
Friday and Saturday, accompanied by a considerable decrease in
forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Idalia will
continue moving away from the coast of North Carolina and approach
Bermuda over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast through early Saturday.
Restrengthening is possible over the weekend, and Idalia is expected
to transition back to a tropical storm on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: Water levels are expected to recede overnight and
into early Friday. For information specific to your area, please
see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Gusts to tropical storm force are expected to continue along
the coast of North Carolina through early Friday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda by Saturday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 6
inches, or 100 to 150 millimeters, across Bermuda through Sunday
night. The heavy rainfall may cause areas of flash and urban
flooding on the island.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia will affect the southeastern U.S.
coast during the next couple of days and will reach Bermuda on
Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 010243
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
0300 UTC FRI SEP 01 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 71.5W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 95 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT.......200NE 180SE 180SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 240SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 71.5W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 72.3W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 32.3N 69.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 110SE 150SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 31.1N 67.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 0SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 30.6N 65.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...160NE 0SE 0SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 31.3N 64.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...130NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 32.3N 63.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 34.3N 61.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 36.8N 59.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 38.7N 61.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 71.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 312343
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023

...IDALIA PULLING AWAY FROM NORTH CAROLINA...
...EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.4N 72.2W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM WNW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia
was located near latitude 33.4 North, longitude 72.2 West. Idalia
is moving toward the east near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
east-southeast and east is expected on Friday and Saturday,
accompanied by a considerable decrease in forward speed. On the
forecast track, the center of Idalia will continue moving away from
the coast of North Carolina and approach Bermuda over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast through Friday night.
Restrengthening is possible over the weekend, and Idalia is expected
to transition back to a tropical storm by Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 41002 well to the south of Cape Hatteras
recently reported a sustained wind of 36 mph (57 km/h) and a gust to
47 mph (76 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated at the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas but should
subside overnight...

Beaufort Inlet, NC to Ocracoke Inlet, NC...1-3 ft
Neuse and Bay Rivers...1-3 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...1-3 ft
Ocracoke Inlet, NC to Duck, NC...1-3 ft

For information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Gusts to tropical storm force are still possible along the
coast of North Carolina through tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda by Saturday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 5 to 7
inches (125 to 175 millimeters) across Bermuda through Sunday night.
The heavy rainfall will likely lead to areas of flash and urban
flooding on the island.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia will affect the southeastern U.S.
coast during the next few days and will reach Bermuda on Friday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 312044
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
500 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023

Idalia has become post-tropical. The center has become less
defined, and the system is attached to a well-defined frontal
boundary that extends to the north and northeast of the center. In
addition, the cyclone is no longer producing deep convection.
Earlier ASCAT and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft showed
that a band of 50-55 kt winds has developed to the northwest of the
center near the front, and the initial intensity is therefore set
at 55 kt.

The initial motion is eastward, or 090/18 kt. Idalia is embedded
within the base of a deep-layer trough moving across the
northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada, but this trough is expected
to leave Idalia behind in the next 24-48 hours. As a result,
Idalia is forecast to turn east-southeastward and slow down
considerably (less than 5 kt) when it approaches Bermuda by 48
hours. A second trough that moves off the U.S. east coast on
Sunday should turn Idalia toward the northeast and north at a
faster forward speed on days 4 and 5. The updated NHC track
forecast is a little south and east of the previous forecast beyond
day 2, leaning toward the model consensus aids. HCCA, in
particular, is on the eastern side of the guidance envelope, which
may suggest that additional eastward adjustment might be needed in
subsequent advisories.

Idalia is expected to remain a convection-less extratropical
cyclone for the next day or two, particularly since it is expected
to move over the cold wake of Hurricane Franklin. Its intensity is
also likely to gradually weaken during that time. However, the
cyclone is forecast to reach warm sea surface temperatures again by
Saturday, and global model fields show the thickness gradient
weakening. In addition, the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite show
deep convection redeveloping by Saturday or Saturday night.
Therefore, Idalia is expected to transition back to a tropical storm
in 48 hours, with some restrengthening possible. Global model
fields show a possible occlusion occurring around day 5, and the
NHC forecast therefore shows Idalia again becoming extratropical by
the end of the forecast period.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bermuda by Saturday.
Heavy rainfall will likely lead to areas of flash and urban
flooding on the island.

2. Water levels are expected to subside and winds are expected to
diminish along the coast of North Carolina through tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 33.5N 73.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 01/0600Z 33.0N 70.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 01/1800Z 31.8N 68.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 02/0600Z 31.0N 66.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 02/1800Z 30.9N 65.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H 03/0600Z 31.3N 64.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 32.1N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 35.1N 60.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 38.0N 59.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 312044
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
500 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023

...IDALIA BECOMES POST-TROPICAL BUT NHC ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.5N 73.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM WNW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Tropical Storm Warnings and Storm Surge Watches have been
discontinued along the coast of North Carolina.

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia
was located near latitude 33.5 North, longitude 73.5 West. Idalia
is moving toward the east near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
east-southeast and east is expected on Friday and Saturday,
accompanied by a considerable decrease in forward speed. On the
forecast track, the center of Idalia will continue moving away from
the coast of North Carolina and approach Bermuda over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast through Friday night.
Restrengthening is possible over the weekend, and Idalia is expected
to transition back to a tropical storm by Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 41002 well to the south of Cape
Hatteras recently reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and
a gust to 61 mph (98 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated at the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas but should
subside overnight...

Beaufort Inlet, NC to Ocracoke Inlet, NC...1-3 ft
Neuse and Bay Rivers...1-3 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...1-3 ft
Ocracoke Inlet, NC to Duck, NC...1-3 ft

For information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Gusts to tropical storm force are still possible along the
coast of North Carolina through tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda by Saturday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 5 to 7
inches (125 to 175 millimeters) across Bermuda through Sunday night.
The heavy rainfall will likely lead to areas of flash and urban
flooding on the island.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia will affect the southeastern U.S.
coast during the next few days and will reach Bermuda on Friday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 312043
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
2100 UTC THU AUG 31 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 73.5W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......200NE 180SE 160SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 220SE 160SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 73.5W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 74.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 33.0N 70.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 110SE 150SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 31.8N 68.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 0SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 31.0N 66.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...160NE 0SE 0SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 30.9N 65.9W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 31.3N 64.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 32.1N 63.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 35.1N 60.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 38.0N 59.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.5N 73.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 311745
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023

...IDALIA LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...
...STRONG WINDS AND STORM SURGE CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 74.8W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Surf City,
North Carolina, southward.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Surf City North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia
border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Beaufort Inlet to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Idalia.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was
located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 74.8 West. Idalia is
moving toward the east near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the
east-southeast and southeast with a reduction in forward speed is
expected on Friday, followed by a turn toward the east and northeast
over the weekend. On the forecast track, Idalia will move away from
the coast of North Carolina today and tonight, and approach Bermuda
over the weekend.

Satellite-derived wind data and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
measurements indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to
near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength
is expected through this evening. Some slight weakening is
forecast tonight and on Friday.

Idalia is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone later today,
but it is expected to make a transition back to a tropical storm
over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 41025 just offshore Cape Hatteras near
Diamond Shoals recently reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (86
km/h) and a gust to 69 mph (111 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Beaufort Inlet, NC to Ocracoke Inlet, NC...2-4 ft
Neuse and Bay Rivers...2-4 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...2-4 ft
Ocracoke Inlet, NC to Duck, NC...1-3 ft
Cape Fear, NC to Beaufort Inlet, NC...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within the tropical
storm warning area along the coast of North Carolina through this
evening.

RAINFALL: Rainfall will be diminishing by early afternoon across
eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia. Additional rainfall
totals of .50 to 1.5 inches are possible across these areas. This
rainfall may compound any ongoing flooding concerns.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia along the eastern Gulf coast will
continue to subside today. Swells will affect the southeastern U.S.
coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 311459
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023

...CENTER OF IDALIA MOVING EASTWARD OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
...STRONG WINDS AND STORM SURGE OCCURRING IN EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 75.8W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of Cape Fear,
North Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Beaufort Inlet to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Idalia.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was
located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 75.8 West. Idalia is
moving toward the east near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the
east-southeast and southeast with a reduction in forward speed is
expected on Friday, followed by a turn toward the east and
northeast over the weekend. On the forecast track, Idalia will
move away from the coast of North Carolina later today and tonight,
and approach Bermuda over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today. Some slight weakening
is forecast tonight and on Friday.

Idalia is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone later today,
but it is expected to make a transition back to a tropical storm
over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center. A station at Cape Lookout, North Carolina,
recently measured a sustained wind of 51 mph (81 km/h) and a gust
to 61 mph (98 km/h). A sustained wind of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a
gust to 64 mph (104 km/h) were reported at Frisco Woods on the
Outer Banks.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Beaufort Inlet, NC to Ocracoke Inlet, NC...2-4 ft
Neuse and Bay Rivers...2-4 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...2-4 ft
Ocracoke Inlet, NC to Duck, NC...1-3 ft
Cape Fear, NC to Beaufort Inlet, NC...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within the tropical
storm warning area along the coast of North Carolina through this
evening.

RAINFALL: Rainfall will be diminishing by early afternoon across
eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia. Additional rainfall
totals of .50 to 1.5 inches are possible across these areas. This
rainfall may compound any ongoing flooding concerns.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia along the eastern Gulf coast will
continue to subside today. Swells will affect the southeastern U.S.
coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 311458
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023

Satellite imagery, surface observations, and Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter data all indicate that Idalia continues to tangle
with a frontal boundary that extends northward offshore the Outer
Banks. In addition, organized deep convection has mostly dissipated
near the center, and it appears that Idalia is on its way to
becoming extratropical. The initial intensity remains 50 kt based
on coastal wind reports and the reconnaissance data.

Global model fields show winds increasing on the northwestern side
of the frontal boundary during the day as Idalia is pulling away
from the coast of North Carolina, and as a result, the NHC intensity
forecast shows some strengthening in the short term. Idalia is
expected to become fully extratropical by this evening, which is
now shown in the official forecast. Winds should begin decreasing
tonight, and simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF
models suggests that the circulation will continue to be devoid of
deep convection, and attached to a front, through at least 36
hours. By 48 hours, the low will reach warmer waters, the
front is likely to weaken, and the ECMWF shows deep convection
redeveloping. As a result, the official forecast shows Idalia
becoming a tropical storm again on Saturday. Intensity-wise, the
guidance indicates that the peak winds are likely to fluctuate
between 40-45 kt from days 2 through 5.

Idalia is now moving eastward, or 090/17 kt, between a deep-layer
trough over the northeastern U.S. and a subtropical anticyclone
near the Bahamas. The trough is likely to bypass Idalia in a few
days, which will cause its eastward motion to slow down to about 5
kt on days 2 and 3 as it approaches Bermuda. On days 4 and 5, a
second trough is expected to turn Idalia to the northeast, but still
at a relatively slow forward speed. The track guidance is in a bit
more agreement than the past few days, and the NHC forecast lies
between the TVCX and HCCA consensus aids.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Rainfall will be diminishing by early afternoon from coastal
North Carolina into far southeast Virginia. Moderate river
flooding, with considerable impacts, will continue across coastal
North Carolina through today.

2. Coastal flooding is expected within the Storm Surge Watch
area in North Carolina today. Residents in these areas should
follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions will continue across eastern North
Carolina within the Tropical Storm Warning area through this
evening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 33.6N 75.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 33.6N 73.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 01/1200Z 32.8N 70.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 02/0000Z 31.7N 68.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 02/1200Z 31.1N 67.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H 03/0000Z 31.1N 66.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 31.8N 65.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 34.3N 62.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 37.0N 61.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 311456
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
1500 UTC THU AUG 31 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 75.8W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......180NE 160SE 150SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 200SE 160SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 75.8W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 77.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 33.6N 73.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 130SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 32.8N 70.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...190NE 120SE 170SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 31.7N 68.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...170NE 40SE 50SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 31.1N 67.3W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 31.1N 66.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 40SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 31.8N 65.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 34.3N 62.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 37.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N 75.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 31/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 311155
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES IN
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...WINDS INCREASING OVER THE OUTER BANKS AND PAMLICO SOUND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 77.0W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River northward to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Beaufort Inlet to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Idalia.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was
located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 77.0 West. Idalia is
moving toward the east-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue this morning. An eastward to
east-southeastward motion is forecast to begin later today and
continue through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of
Idalia will move just offshore of the coast of North Carolina today.
Idalia will then move eastward over the western Atlantic into the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but some gradual
weakening could occur Friday and Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center. An elevated station in Pamlico Sound (43 feet
above the water) recently measured a sustained wind of 56 mph (91
km/h) and a gust to 67 mph (107 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Beaufort Inlet, NC to Ocracoke Inlet, NC...2-4 ft
Neuse and Bay Rivers...2-4 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...2-4 ft
Ocracoke Inlet, NC to Duck, NC...1-3 ft
Cape Fear, NC to Beaufort Inlet, NC...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the tropical
storm warning area along the coast of northeastern South Carolina,
and will continue to spread across coastal sections of North
Carolina today.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts
of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maxima up to 6 inches across coastal
North Carolina through this afternoon. This rainfall will lead to
areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with
considerable impacts.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia along the eastern Gulf coast will
continue to subside today. Swells will affect the southeastern U.S.
coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes will be possible through this morning
across coastal North Carolina.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 310843
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
500 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023

Surface observations from around 0600 UTC showed that the center of
Idalia moved offshore of the coast of northeastern South Carolina.
Strong southwesterly vertical wind shear has displaced the deep
convective bands and heavy rainfall well north and northeast of the
center over eastern North Carolina and the adjacent Atlantic. A
partial ASCAT-B overpass over the southeastern portion of the
circulation revealed winds of 40-45 kt and given that instrument's
typical undersampling, the initial wind speed is maintained at
50 kt for this advisory.

Idalia has turned east-northeastward between a mid-level
anticyclone over the Bahamas and a mid-tropospheric trough moving
eastward over the northeastern United States. The anticyclone is
forecast to retrograde over Florida during the next couple of days,
causing Idalia to turn east-southeastward tonight and Friday.
After that time, steering currents are predicted to weaken and the
cyclone is expected to move very slowly to the southwest of
Bermuda during the weekend. By early next week, another
mid-latitude trough moving off the northeast U.S. coast should
cause Idalia to begin moving northeastward, however there is still
significant uncertainty in the details of the track forecast
later in the period.

Little change in strength is predicted today, but strong
upper-level winds and drier mid-level air are likely to cause some
gradual weakening by the weekend. Simulated satellite imagery from
the GFS and ECMWF models suggest that the system could lose
organized deep convection as soon as tonight, and Idalia could
degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone in a day or so. However,
the ECMWF does show a return of deep convection over the weekend so
the official forecast continues to retain the system as a tropical
storm throughout the foreast period.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with
considerable impacts, will continue across coastal North Carolina
through today.

2. Coastal flooding is expected within the Storm Surge Watch
area in North Carolina today. Residents in these areas should
follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in northeastern South
Carolina and portions of eastern North Carolina today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 33.6N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 34.0N 75.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 33.5N 71.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 32.4N 69.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 31.5N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 31.2N 67.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 31.4N 66.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 33.1N 63.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 35.6N 61.4W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 310842
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
500 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES IN
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 78.0W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River northward to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Beaufort Inlet to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Idalia.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was
located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 78.0 West. Idalia is
moving toward the east-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue this morning. An
eastward to east-southeastward motion is forecast to begin later
today and continue through Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Idalia will just offshore of the coast of North Carolina
today. Idalia will then move over the western Atlantic into the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today, but some gradual
weakening could occur Friday and Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Beaufort Inlet, NC to Ocracoke Inlet, NC...2-4 ft
Neuse and Bay Rivers...2-4 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...2-4 ft
Ocracoke Inlet, NC to Duck, NC...1-3 ft
Cape Fear, NC to Beaufort Inlet, NC...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the tropical
storm warning area along the coast of northeastern South Carolina,
and will continue to spread across coastal sections of North
Carolina today.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts
of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maxima up to 6 inches across coastal
North Carolina through this afternoon. This rainfall will lead to
areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with
considerable impacts.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia along the eastern Gulf coast will
continue to subside today. Swells will affect the southeastern U.S.
coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes will be possible through early this
morning across coastal North Carolina.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 310842
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
0900 UTC THU AUG 31 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 78.0W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT.......140NE 160SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 220SE 180SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 78.0W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 78.8W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 34.0N 75.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 33.5N 71.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 140SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 32.4N 69.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 90SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 31.5N 68.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 0SE 60SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 31.2N 67.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 31.4N 66.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 33.1N 63.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 35.6N 61.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N 78.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 31/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 310554
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
200 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023

...WIDESPREAD AREAS OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OCCURING IN
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.5N 79.1W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge and Tropical Storm Warnings south of South Santee
River, South Carolina, have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River northward to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Beaufort Inlet to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Idalia.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was
located near latitude 33.5 North, longitude 79.1 West. Idalia is
moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue overnight. An eastward to
east-southeastward motion is forecast to begin later today and
continue through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of
Idalia will move near or along the coast of South Carolina overnight
and then just offshore of the coast of North Carolina today.
Idalia will then move over the western Atlantic into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours, and Idalia is expected to remain a tropical storm when if
moves off the coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center. A wind gust of 50 mph (80 km/h) was recently
reported at Piney Island, North Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 991 mb (29.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Beaufort Inlet, NC to Ocracoke Inlet, NC...2-4 ft
Neuse and Bay Rivers...2-4 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...2-4 ft
South Santee River, SC to Beaufort Inlet, NC...1-3 ft
Ocracoke Inlet, NC to Duck, NC...1-3 ft
Savannah River to South Santee River, SC...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the tropical
storm warning area along the coast of northeastern South Carolina,
and will spread across coastal sections of North Carolina later
today.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce a storm total of 4 to 8
inches of rainfall with isolated maxima up to 10 inches from eastern
South Carolina through eastern North Carolina through today. These
rainfall amounts will continue to lead to areas of flash, urban, and
moderate river flooding, with considerable impacts. The trailing
moisture band from Idalia may produce an additional 1 to 2 inches of
rainfall over the central Florida Peninsula today.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia along the eastern Gulf coast will
continue to subside today. Swells will affect the southeastern U.S.
coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes will be possible through daybreak
this morning across coastal North Carolina.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 310253
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

Idalia continues to have an asymmetric presentation on radar and
satellite imagery, in the presence of strong upper-level
southwesterly winds. Surface observations indicate that the
circulation is somewhat elongated from southwest to northeast as the
system interacts with a coastal front, and the system is producing
very heavy precipitation over portions of South and North Carolina.
Assuming some slow weakening has taken place since this afternoon,
the intensity is set at 50 kt, although this may still be generous.

The initial motion estimate remains around 035/18 kt. Idalia
continues to move between the northwestern periphery of a mid-level
anticyclone near the Bahamas and an eastward-moving mid-tropospheric
trough over the northeastern United States. The dynamical guidance
indicates that the anticyclone will retrograde westward, and result
in Idalia moving eastward to east-southeastward on its northern side
for the next several days. Although it seems likely that the
cyclone will move rather slowly in the 2- to 5-day time frame, the
details of its track are uncertain due to significant track model
differences in the latter part of the forecast period. The official
forecast is similar to the previous NHC track and roughly in the
middle of the guidance.

Since Idalia is now fairly close to the coast with a lot of its
circulation over water, not much additional weakening is
anticipated. However, the system's interaction with the coastal
front, along with the ongoing strong upper-level flow, suggest that
it will not be able to strengthen even after moving over the western
Atlantic waters. This is also indicated by much of the intensity
guidance models. As noted earlier, the system could lose organized
deep convection in a few days and degenerate into a post-tropical
cyclone, as suggested by the GFS model-simulated satellite imagery.
For now, however, the official forecast again retains the system as
a tropical storm for the entire forecast period.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Storm surge is expected along the southeastern U.S. coast within
the Storm Surge Warning area through tonight. Coastal flooding is
also expected within the Storm Surge Watch area in North Carolina on
Thursday. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given
by local officials.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds will affect portions of the
southeastern U.S. coast through Thursday.

3. Areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with
considerable impacts, are expected from eastern South Carolina
through eastern North Carolina into Thursday.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 33.0N 80.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
12H 31/1200Z 33.9N 77.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 01/0000Z 33.9N 73.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 33.2N 70.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 32.3N 69.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 31.6N 68.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 31.4N 67.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 32.0N 65.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 33.5N 63.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 310251
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

...IDALIA PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.0N 80.0W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of the Savannah
River.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of the
Savannah River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River northward to the South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River northward to the North Carolina/Virginia
border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Beaufort Inlet to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers North Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Idalia.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was
located near latitude 33.0 North, longitude 80.0 West. Idalia is
moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight. An eastward to
east-southeastward motion is forecast to begin on Thursday and
continue through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of
Idalia will move near or along the coast of South Carolina through
tonight, and then just offshore of the coast of North Carolina on
Thursday. Idalia will then move over the western Atlantic into the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the
next 48 hours, and Idalia is expected to remain a tropical storm
when if moves off the coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 48 mph (78 km/h) and a gust to
58 mph (94 km/h) were recently reported from saildrone SD-1045 which
is located off the South Carolina coast.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Beaufort Inlet, NC to Ocracoke Inlet, NC...2-4 ft
Savannah River to South Santee River, SC...2-4 ft
Neuse and Bay Rivers...2-4 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...2-4 ft
South Santee River, SC to Beaufort Inlet, NC...1-3 ft
Ocracoke Inlet, NC to Duck, NC...1-3 ft
Altamaha Sound, GA to Savannah River...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the tropical
storm warning area along the coast of South Carolina, and will
spread across coastal sections of North Carolina tonight through
Thursday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce a storm total of 4 to 8
inches of rainfall with isolated maxima up to 10 inches from eastern
South Carolina through eastern North Carolina into Thursday. These
rainfall amounts will continue to lead to areas of flash, urban, and
moderate river flooding, with considerable impacts. The trailing
moisture band from Idalia may produce an additional 1 to 2 inches of
rainfall over the central Florida Peninsula into Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia along the eastern and central Gulf
coast will continue to subside tonight and Thursday. Swells will
affect the southeastern U.S. coast during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes will be possible through daybreak
Thursday across coastal North Carolina.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 310247
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
0300 UTC THU AUG 31 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 80.0W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT.......140NE 180SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 80.0W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 80.9W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 33.9N 77.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 90SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 33.9N 73.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 140SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 33.2N 70.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 70SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 32.3N 69.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...170NE 70SE 80SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 31.6N 68.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 0SE 40SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 31.4N 67.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 0SE 30SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 32.0N 65.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 33.5N 63.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.0N 80.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 31/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 302343
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

...IDALIA OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
...FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES OVER GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 80.9W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Altamaha
Sound, Georgia to the Flagler/Volusia County, Florida Line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* St. Catherine's Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound, Georgia northward to the North Carolina/Virginia
border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Beaufort Inlet to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers North Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Idalia.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was
located near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 80.9 West. Idalia is
moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A generally
eastward motion is forecast to begin on Thursday and continue
through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Idalia will
move near or along the coast of South Carolina through tonight, and
then just offshore of the coast of North Carolina on Thursday.
Idalia will then move eastward over the western Atlantic into the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is forecast through
tonight, but Idalia is expected to remain a tropical storm while it
moves near the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust
to 50 mph (80 km/h) were recently reported at Folly South End,
South Carolina, near Charleston.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Savannah River to South Santee River, SC...3-5 ft
Saint Catherines Sound, GA to Savannah River...2-4 ft
Beaufort Inlet, NC to Ocracoke Inlet, NC...2-4 ft
Neuse and Bay Rivers...2-4 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...2-4 ft
South Santee River, SC to Beaufort Inlet, NC...1-3 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Tampa Bay...1-3 ft
Charlotte Harbor...1-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Saint Catherines Sound, GA...1-3
ft
Ocracoke Inlet, NC to Duck, NC...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the tropical
storm warning area along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina,
and will spread across coastal sections of North Carolina tonight
through Thursday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce a swath of 4 to 8 inches of
rainfall with isolated maxima up to 10 inches from east-central
Georgia through central to eastern South Carolina and eastern North
Carolina into Thursday. These rainfall amounts will lead to areas
of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with considerable
impacts. The trailing moisture band from Idalia has the potential
to produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches across the
west coast of Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia along the eastern and central Gulf
coast will subside tonight and Thursday. Swells will affect the
southeastern U.S. coast during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible through this evening
across coastal South Carolina and through tonight across southern
coastal North Carolina.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 302050
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
500 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

Idalia's radar and satellite presentation has become increasingly
asymmetric. A coastal front appears to have developed just inland
of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina, with heavy rainfall
being enhanced along and to the northwest of this boundary. The
highest WSR-88D velocities observed are about 60-65 kt at an
elevation of 5000 feet, indicating that Idalia is no longer a
hurricane. The advisory intensity is set at 60 kt, which is
probably a bit generous.

The initial motion is now northeastward, or 035/18 kt, with Idalia
moving between the northwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge
located over the Greater Antilles and a deep-layer trough moving
across the northeastern U.S. The storm is expected to turn toward
the east and east-southeast during the next 48 hours, but then slow
down considerably as the trough lifts out and leaves Idalia behind.
There is fairly high confidence that Idalia will move slowly
eastward over the western Atlantic, in the vicinity of Bermuda,
during the latter part of the forecast period, although there is
less confidence in the details of that motion due to large model
spread.

Additional weakening is expected while Idalia's center continues
moving over land through tonight. However, once the center moves
back offshore on Thursday, model fields suggest that Idalia could
interact with the aforementioned coastal front, with an area of
stronger winds developing along the boundary near eastern North
Carolina during the day. Based on this scenario, the NHC intensity
forecast closely follows the GFS solution at 24 and 36 hours.
After 36 hours, there is more uncertainty on Idalia's intensity and
structure. Some guidance suggests that Idalia will continue
interacting with the front and possibly become post-tropical,
particularly if it struggles to maintain organized deep convection.
For now, the NHC forecast keeps Idalia as a tropical storm for the
entire forecast period.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Storm surge is expected along the southeastern U.S. coast within
the Storm Surge Warning area through tonight. Coastal flooding is
also expected within the Storm Surge Watch area in North Carolina on
Thursday. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given
by local officials.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds will affect portions of the
southeastern U.S. coast through Thursday.

3. Areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with
considerable impacts, are expected from east central Georgia,
through eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina into
Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 32.2N 81.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
12H 31/0600Z 33.4N 79.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 31/1800Z 34.1N 75.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 01/0600Z 33.7N 72.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 32.8N 69.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 32.1N 68.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 31.7N 67.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 32.3N 65.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 34.4N 61.3W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 302049
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
500 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

...IDALIA NOW A TROPICAL STORM...
...RISK OF FRESHWATER FLOODING, STORM SURGE, AND STRONG WINDS
CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 81.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM WSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warnings and Watches have been discontinued along
the Gulf coast of Florida. The Storm Surge Watch has been
discontinued along the Georgia coast.

The Hurricane Warning along the coasts of Georgia and South
Carolina has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The
Hurricane Watches have been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued along the Gulf
coast of Florida, and on the east coast of Florida south of the
Flagler/Volusia County Line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* St. Catherine's Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Volusia/Brevard County Line Florida to the North Carolina/Virginia
border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Beaufort Inlet to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers North Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Idalia.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was
located over southeastern Georgia near latitude 32.2 North,
longitude 81.7 West. Idalia is moving toward the northeast near 21
mph (33 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue
through tonight. A generally eastward motion is forecast to begin
on Thursday and continue through Saturday. On the forecast track,
the center of Idalia will move near or along the coasts of Georgia
and South Carolina through tonight, and then just offshore the
coast of North Carolina on Thursday. Idalia will then move
eastward over the western Atlantic into the weekend.

NOAA Doppler radar data indicate that maximum sustained winds have
decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
additional weakening is forecast through tonight, but Idalia is
expected to remain a tropical storm while it moves near the coasts
of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 52 mph (83 km/h) and a gust
to 67 mph (107 km/h) were recently reported at the Savannah
Entrance Light.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Savannah River to South Santee River, SC...3-5 ft
Saint Catherines Sound, GA to Savannah River...2-4 ft
Beaufort Inlet, NC to Ocracoke Inlet, NC...2-4 ft
Neuse and Bay Rivers...2-4 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...2-4 ft
South Santee River, SC to Beaufort Inlet, NC...1-3 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Tampa Bay...1-3 ft
Charlotte Harbor...1-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Saint Catherines Sound, GA...1-3
ft
Ocracoke Inlet, NC to Duck, NC...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the tropical
storm warning area along the northeastern coast of Florida,
Georgia, and South Carolina, and will spread across coastal
sections of North Carolina tonight through Thursday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce a swath of 4 to 8 inches of
rainfall with isolated maxima up to 10 inches from east-central
Georgia through central to eastern South Carolina and eastern North
Carolina into Thursday. These rainfall amounts will lead to areas
of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with considerable
impacts. The trailing moisture band from Idalia has the potential
to produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches across the
west coast of Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia along the eastern and central Gulf
coast will subside tonight and Thursday. Swells will affect the
southeastern U.S. coast during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible through this evening
across coastal South Carolina and through tonight across southern
coastal North Carolina.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 302049
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
2100 UTC WED AUG 30 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 81.7W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT.......140NE 180SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 81.7W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 82.5W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 33.4N 79.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 180SE 90SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 34.1N 75.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 33.7N 72.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...190NE 70SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 32.8N 69.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...170NE 70SE 80SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 32.1N 68.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 0SE 40SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 31.7N 67.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 0SE 30SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 32.3N 65.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 34.4N 61.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.2N 81.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 31/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 301756
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

...IDALIA'S CORE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...
...FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS THROUGH THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 82.5W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM NNW OF WAYCROSS GEORGIA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning from the Suwanee River to the Ochlockonee
River, Florida, has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The
Hurricane Warning has been discontinued west of the Ochlockonee
River.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of the
Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood northward to Aucilla River Florida, including Tampa Bay
* St. Catherine's Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach northward to Ochlockonee River Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Volusia/Brevard County Line Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* North of Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina/
Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbor
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to St. Catherine's Sound Georgia
* Beaufort Inlet to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers North Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound
* Edisto Beach to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Idalia was located
by Doppler radar near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 82.5 West.
Idalia is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h).
A turn toward the east-northeast is expected tonight, followed by an
eastward motion on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Idalia will continue moving across southeastern Georgia through
this evening, near the coast of South Carolina tonight, and just
offshore the coast of southern North Carolina on Thursday. Idalia
is then expected to move east-southeastward over the western
Atlantic on Friday.

NOAA Doppler radar data indicate that maximum sustained winds have
decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Idalia is
forecast to weaken further, but it could still produce
hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, through this evening
across portions of southeastern Georgia and southern South Carolina.
Idalia is forecast to be a tropical storm while moving near the
coasts of northeastern South Carolina and North Carolina tonight and
on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Keaton Beach, FL to Yankeetown, FL...5-8 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...3-5 ft
Aucilla River, FL to Keaton Beach, FL...2-4 ft
Anclote River, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...2-4 ft
Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Saint Catherines Sound, GA to South Santee River, SC...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Saint Catherines Sound, GA...2-4 ft
Beaufort Inlet, NC to Ocracoke Inlet, NC...2-4 ft
Neuse River and Pamlico River...2-4 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
South Santee River, SC to Beaufort Inlet, NC...1-3 ft
Ocracoke Inlet, NC to Duck, NC...1-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of the St. Mary's
River...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the hurricane
warning area in southern Georgia and will spread to the coasts of
Georgia and southern South Carolina within the hurricane warning
area later today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the
hurricane watch area along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts
later today.

Tropical storm conditions will continue through this afternoon
within the tropical storm warning area along the Florida west coast.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the tropical storm
warning area along the northeastern coast of Florida and Georgia
and will spread into South Carolina and North Carolina through the
day and into Thursday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce a swath of 4 to 8 inches of
rainfall with isolated maxima up to 12 inches from portions of North
Florida through central Georgia and South Carolina, and through
eastern North Carolina into Thursday. These rainfall amounts will
lead to areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with
considerable impacts.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting the eastern and
central Gulf coast from Florida to Louisiana, and will increase
along the southeastern U.S. coast today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible today across central
and northeast Florida into southeast Georgia. The tornado threat
will increase through this afternoon across coastal South Carolina
and continue into tonight for coastal North Carolina.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT65 KNHC 301655
TCUAT5

Hurricane Idalia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
100 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

...HEAVY RAIN SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF THE
CAROLINAS...
...100 PM POSITION UPDATE...

NOAA radar data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are
now near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated
minimum pressure based on a recent surface observation from Moody
Air Force Base is 978 mb (28.88 inches).

A Weatherflow station near Jekyll Island in Georgia recently
reported sustained winds of 43 mph (69 km/h) with a wind gust to 55
mph (89 km/h).

This is the last hourly Tropical Cyclone Update on Idalia. The
next intermediate advisory will be issued at 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC).


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 82.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NE OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WSW OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stevenson/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT65 KNHC 301556
TCUAT5

Hurricane Idalia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1200 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

...DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA...
...1200 PM POSITION UPDATE...

NOAA radar data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are
now near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated
minimum pressure based on a surface observation from Good Hope
Circle near Naylor, Georgia is 975 mb (28.79 inches).

A sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) with a wind gust to 56 mph
(90 km/h) was recently reported at Moody Air Force Base in
southern Georgia.


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 82.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ENE OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM WSW OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stevenson/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 301506 CCA
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Idalia Advisory Number 16...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

Corrected watch/warning section

...CENTER OF IDALIA CROSSING INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...
...HIGH WATER LEVELS CONTINUE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 83.2W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM SSE OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SW OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued west of Aucilla
River, Florida.

The Hurricane Warning from the Middle of Longboat Key to Suwanee
River, Florida, including Tampa Bay, has been changed to a Tropical
Storm Warning.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of Indian
Pass, Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood northward to Aucilla River Florida, including Tampa Bay
* St. Catherine's Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Suwanee River westward to Indian Pass Florida
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach northward to Suwanee River Florida, including Tampa
Bay
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* North of Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina/
Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbor
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to St. Catherine's Sound Georgia
* Beaufort Inlet to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers North Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound
* Edisto Beach to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Idalia was
located by Doppler radar near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 83.2
West. Idalia is moving toward the north-northeast near 20 mph (31
km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected later today,
followed by an east-northeastward to eastward motion on Thursday.
On the forecast track, the center of Idalia will move across
southeastern Georgia today, near the coast of South Carolina
tonight, and just offshore the coast of southern North Carolina on
Thursday. Idalia is then expected to move east-southeastward over
the western Atlantic on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Although Idalia will weaken further while the
center is inland, it is still expected to be a hurricane through
this afternoon or evening while moving across southeastern Georgia
and southern South Carolina. Idalia is forecast to be a tropical
storm while moving near the coasts of northeastern South Carolina
and North Carolina tonight and on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km). Sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) with a gust to 52 mph
(84 km/h) was recently reported at Moody Air Force Base near
Valdosta, Georgia.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Keaton Beach, FL to Yankeetown, FL...7-11 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-8 ft
Aucilla River, FL to Keaton Beach, FL...3-5 ft
Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Tampa Bay...3-5 ft
Saint Catherines Sound, GA to South Santee River, SC...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Saint Catherines Sound, GA...2-4 ft
Beaufort Inlet, NC to Ocracoke Inlet, NC...2-4 ft
Neuse River and Pamlico River...2-4 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
South Santee River, SC to Beaufort Inlet, NC...1-3 ft
Ocracoke Inlet, NC to Duck, NC...1-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of the St. Mary's
River...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the hurricane
warning area in Florida and southern Georgia and will spread to the
coasts of Georgia and southern South Carolina within the
hurricane warning area later today. Tropical storm conditions
will continue through today within the tropical storm warning area
along the Florida west coast. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the hurricane watch area along the Georgia and South
Carolina coasts later today and tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the tropical storm
warning area along the northeastern coast of Florida and Georgia
and will spread into South Carolina and North Carolina through the
day and into Thursday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce a swath of 4 to 8 inches of
rainfall with isolated maxima up to 12 inches from portions of North
Florida through central Georgia and South Carolina, and through
eastern North Carolina into Thursday. These rainfall amounts will
lead to areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with
considerable impacts.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting the eastern and
central Gulf coast from Florida to Louisiana, and will increase
along the southeastern U.S. coast today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible today across central
and northeast Florida into southeast Georgia. The tornado threat
will increase through this afternoon across coastal South Carolina
and continue into tonight for coastal North Carolina.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 301500
TCDAT5

Hurricane Idalia Discussion Number 16...Retransmitted
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

Although Idalia reached category 4 intensity early this morning
over the far northeastern Gulf of Mexico, Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter data just before landfall indicated that the peak
winds had started to decrease and the minimum pressure had begun to
rise. This was likely due to an eyewall replacement cycle (which
was shown by radar data) and an increase in shear over the
hurricane. Idalia made landfall near Keaton Beach, Florida,
as a category 3 hurricane around 1145 UTC, and it has been
weakening quickly since then over northern Florida. WSR-88D
Doppler velocities suggest that the maximum winds are now down to
about 80 kt.

Idalia is moving toward the north-northeast, or 030/17 kt. The
hurricane is located between a subtropical ridging near the Greater
Antilles and a deep-layer trough over the eastern United States.
This pattern is expected to cause Idalia to turn toward the
northeast and then east during the next 36 hours, and the track
guidance is very good agreement on the center moving near the
coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina through
Thursday. Model spread increases beyond 36 hours, although there
is not as much uncertainty as yesterday. None of the models shows
the circulation curving back toward the U.S. anymore, but the
guidance is suggestive that Idalia will likely slow down as it
approaches Bermuda on days 3 through 5. During that period, the
NHC track forecast is a blend of the previous forecast with the
current HCCA and TVCX consensus aids.

Relatively fast weakening is anticipated through the rest of the
day. The intensity guidance is hovering right around the hurricane
threshold at 12 hours, and the official forecast therefore
conservatively shows a 65-kt hurricane near the Georgia/South
Carolina border this evening. Idalia should become a tropical
storm by tonight while moving near the coast of South Carolina.
The intensity forecast is a little bit above the guidance at 24 and
36 hours to account for the possibility of a band of strong winds
developing on the back side of Idalia near eastern North Carolina,
associated with a nearby frontal boundary. Beyond 36 hours, the
guidance suggests that Idalia's intensity is likely to hover
between 45-50 kt through the end of the forecast period.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Significant impacts from storm surge will continue along the
Gulf coast of Florida within the Storm Surge Warning through this
evening. Dangerous storm surge is also expected along the
southeastern U.S. coast within the Storm Surge Warning area tonight
and Thursday. Residents in these areas should follow any advice
given by local officials.

2. Damaging hurricane-force winds will occur where the core of
Idalia moves across southern Georgia and southern South Carolina
within the hurricane warning area through this evening. Residents
in these areas should be prepared for long-duration power outages.
Strong winds are also expected to spread northeastward across South
Carolina and North Carolina through Thursday within the Tropical
Storm Warning area.

3. Areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with
considerable impacts, are expected from portions of North Florida
through central Georgia and South Carolina, through eastern North
Carolina into Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 30.6N 83.2W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
12H 31/0000Z 32.4N 81.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
24H 31/1200Z 33.8N 77.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 01/0000Z 33.9N 74.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 33.2N 71.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 32.4N 69.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 31.9N 68.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 31.4N 66.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 32.5N 63.3W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 301457
TCDAT5

Hurricane Idalia Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

Although Idalia reached category 4 intensity early this morning
over the far northeastern Gulf of Mexico, Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter data just before landfall indicated that the peak
winds had started to decrease and the minimum pressure had begun to
rise. This was likely due to an eyewall replacement cycle (which
was shown by radar data) and an increase in shear over the
hurricane. Idalia made landfall near Keaton Beach, Florida,
as a category 3 hurricane around 1145 UTC, and it has been
weakening quickly since then over northern Florida. WSR-88D
Doppler velocities suggest that the maximum winds are now down to
about 80 kt.

Idalia is moving toward the north-northeast, or 030/17 kt. The
hurricane is located between a subtropical ridging near the Greater
Antilles and a deep-layer trough over the eastern United States.
This pattern is expected to cause Idalia to turn toward the
northeast and then east during the next 36 hours, and the track
guidance is very good agreement on the center moving near the
coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina through
Thursday. Model spread increases beyond 36 hours, although there
is not as much uncertainty as yesterday. None of the models shows
the circulation curving back toward the U.S. anymore, but the
guidance is suggestive that Idalia will likely slow down as it
approaches Bermuda on days 3 through 5. During that period, the
NHC track forecast is a blend of the previous forecast with the
current HCCA and TVCX consensus aids.

Relatively fast weakening is anticipated through the rest of the
day. The intensity guidance is hovering right around the hurricane
threshold at 12 hours, and the official forecast therefore
conservatively shows a 65-kt hurricane near the Georgia/South
Carolina border this evening. Idalia should become a tropical
storm by tonight while moving near the coast of South Carolina.
The intensity forecast is a little bit above the guidance at 24 and
36 hours to account for the possibility of a band of strong winds
developing on the back side of Idalia near eastern North Carolina,
associated with a nearby frontal boundary. Beyond 36 hours, the
guidance suggests that Idalia's intensity is likely to hover
between 45-50 kt through the end of the forecast period.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Significant impacts from storm surge will continue along the
Gulf coast of Florida within the Storm Surge Warning through this
evening. Dangerous storm storm surge is also expected along the
southeastern U.S. coast within the Storm Surge Warning area tonight
and Thursday. Residents in these areas should follow any advice
given by local officials.

2. Damaging hurricane-force winds will occur where the core of
Idalia moves across southern Georgia and southern South Carolina
within the hurricane warning area through this evening. Residents
in these areas should be prepared for long-duration power outages.
Strong winds are also expected to spread northeastward across South
Carolina and North Carolina through Thursday within the Tropical
Storm Warning area.

3. Areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with
considerable impacts, are expected from portions of North Florida
through central Georgia and South Carolina, through eastern North
Carolina into Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 30.6N 83.2W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
12H 31/0000Z 32.4N 81.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
24H 31/1200Z 33.8N 77.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 01/0000Z 33.9N 74.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 33.2N 71.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 32.4N 69.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 31.9N 68.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 31.4N 66.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 32.5N 63.3W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 301446
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Idalia Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

...CENTER OF IDALIA CROSSING INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...
...HIGH WATER LEVELS CONTINUE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 83.2W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM SSE OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SW OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued west of Aucilla
River, Florida.

The Hurricane Warning from the Middle of Longboat Key to Suwanee
River, Florida, including Tampa Bay, has been changed to a Tropical
Storm Warning.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of Indian
Pass, Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood northward to Aucilla River Florida, including Tampa Bay
* St. Catherine's Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Suwanee River westward to Indian Pass Florida
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach northward to Suwanee River Florida, including Tampa
Bay
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbor
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to St. Catherine's Sound Georgia
* Beaufort Inlet to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers North Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound
* Edisto Beach to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Idalia was
located by Doppler radar near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 83.2
West. Idalia is moving toward the north-northeast near 20 mph (31
km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected later today,
followed by an east-northeastward to eastward motion on Thursday.
On the forecast track, the center of Idalia will move across
southeastern Georgia today, near the coast of South Carolina
tonight, and just offshore the coast of southern North Carolina on
Thursday. Idalia is then expected to move east-southeastward over
the western Atlantic on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Although Idalia will weaken further while the
center is inland, it is still expected to be a hurricane through
this afternoon or evening while moving across southeastern Georgia
and southern South Carolina. Idalia is forecast to be a tropical
storm while moving near the coasts of northeastern South Carolina
and North Carolina tonight and on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km). Sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) with a gust to 52 mph
(84 km/h) was recently reported at Moody Air Force Base near
Valdosta, Georgia.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Keaton Beach, FL to Yankeetown, FL...7-11 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-8 ft
Aucilla River, FL to Keaton Beach, FL...3-5 ft
Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Tampa Bay...3-5 ft
Saint Catherines Sound, GA to South Santee River, SC...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Saint Catherines Sound, GA...2-4 ft
Beaufort Inlet, NC to Ocracoke Inlet, NC...2-4 ft
Neuse River and Pamlico River...2-4 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
South Santee River, SC to Beaufort Inlet, NC...1-3 ft
Ocracoke Inlet, NC to Duck, NC...1-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of the St. Mary's
River...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the hurricane
warning area in Florida and southern Georgia and will spread to the
coasts of Georgia and southern South Carolina within the
hurricane warning area later today. Tropical storm conditions
will continue through today within the tropical storm warning area
along the Florida west coast. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the hurricane watch area along the Georgia and South
Carolina coasts later today and tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the tropical storm
warning area along the northeastern coast of Florida and Georgia
and will spread into South Carolina and North Carolina through the
day and into Thursday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce a swath of 4 to 8 inches of
rainfall with isolated maxima up to 12 inches from portions of North
Florida through central Georgia and South Carolina, and through
eastern North Carolina into Thursday. These rainfall amounts will
lead to areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with
considerable impacts.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting the eastern and
central Gulf coast from Florida to Louisiana, and will increase
along the southeastern U.S. coast today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible today across central
and northeast Florida into southeast Georgia. The tornado threat
will increase through this afternoon across coastal South Carolina
and continue into tonight for coastal North Carolina.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 301446
TCMAT5

HURRICANE IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
1500 UTC WED AUG 30 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 83.2W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......150NE 200SE 80SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 90SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 83.2W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 83.6W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 32.4N 81.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 0NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 15NW.
34 KT...140NE 190SE 80SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 33.8N 77.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 33.9N 74.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 110SE 140SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 33.2N 71.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...170NE 80SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 32.4N 69.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 60SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 31.9N 68.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 31.4N 66.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 32.5N 63.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 83.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 30/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT65 KNHC 301358
TCUAT5

Hurricane Idalia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

...DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...
...1000 AM POSITION UPDATE...

NOAA radar data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are
now near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated
minimum pressure based on surface observations is 964 mb (28.47
inches).

A sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a wind gust to 63 mph
(102 km/h) was recently reported at the airport in Valdosta,
Georgia.

An unofficial automated observing site at Madison High School in
Madison, Florida, reported a wind gust to 67 mph (108 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 83.3W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM ENE OF MADISON FLORIDA
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM S OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Stevenson

>

Original Message :

WTNT65 KNHC 301259
TCUAT5

Hurricane Idalia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
900 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE OCCURING ALONG THE COAST OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING INLAND OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA...
...900 AM POSITION UPDATE...

NOAA radar data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are
now near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated
minimum pressure based on surface observations is 957 mb (28.26
inches).

An automated weather station at Perry Airport recently reported a
sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h) with a gust to 85 mph (137
km/h) within the past hour.

A Florida Coastal Monitoring Program tower located near Perry,
Florida, recently reported a wind gust of 81 mph (130 km/h).

A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge at Cedar Key, Florida,
recently reported a water level of 6.8 feet above mean higher high
water, which is an approximation of inundation in that area.

SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 83.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SSW OF MADISON FLORIDA
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSW OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Stevenson

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 301159
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

...EYE OF IDALIA MOVING JUST INLAND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
COAST...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS
CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 83.5W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM SSE OF PERRY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood northward to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay
* St. Catherine's Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach northward to the Middle of Longboat Key
* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbor
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to St. Catherine's Sound Georgia
* Beaufort Inlet to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers North Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound
* Edisto Beach to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Additional warnings could be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Idalia was located by
Tallahassee radar near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 83.5 West.
Idalia is moving toward the north-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h). A
north-northeastward motion is expected through the morning, with
Idalia's center forecast to move into southern Georgia later today.
Idalia is forecast to turn toward the northeast and east-northeast,
moving near or along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and
North Carolina late today and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated near 120 mph (195 km/h) with
higher gusts. Idalia is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although Idalia will weaken
further now that the center is inland, it is likely to still be a
hurricane while moving across southern Georgia, and near the coast
of Georgia or southern South Carolina late today. Idalia is forecast
to be a tropical storm while moving near the coasts of northeastern
South Carolina and North Carolina tonight and on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.05 inches) based on
aircraft data.

Water levels along the coast of the Florida Big Bend continue to
rise rapidly. A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge at Cedar
Key, Florida, recently reported a water level of 6.2 feet above
mean higher high water, which is an approximation of inundation in
that area.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Wakulla/Jefferson County, FL to Yankeetown, FL...12-16 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Wakulla/Jefferson County, FL...8-12 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Carrabelle, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-8 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-6 ft
Tampa Bay...4-6 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Carrabelle, FL...3-5 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Saint Catherines Sound, GA to South Santee River, SC...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...2-4 ft
Beaufort Inlet, NC to Ocracoke Inlet, NC...2-4 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Saint Catherines Sound, GA...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Neuse and Bay Rivers...2-4 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...2-4 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of the St. Mary's
River...1-3 ft
Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...1-3 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
South Santee River, SC to Beaufort Inlet, NC...1-3 ft
Ocracoke Inlet, NC to Duck, NC...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the hurricane
warning area in Florida and will spread into southern Georgia later
today. Tropical storm conditions will continue through today within
the tropical storm warning area along the Florida Gulf and west
coasts.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area
along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina later today and
tonight, and possible within the Hurricane Watch area.

Tropical storm conditions are beginning within the tropical storm
warning area along the northeastern coast of Florida and will spread
into Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina through the day and
into Thursday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce a swath of 4 to 8 inches of
rainfall with isolated maxima up to 12 inches from the Florida Big
Bend through central Georgia and South Carolina, and through eastern
North Carolina into Thursday. These rainfall amounts will lead to
areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with
considerable impacts.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting the eastern and
central Gulf coast from Florida to Louisiana, and will increase
along the southeastern U.S. coast today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this morning across
west-central and northern Florida into southeast Georgia, with the
tornado risk shifting toward the coastal Carolinas this afternoon
and tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT65 KNHC 301145
TCUAT5

Hurricane Idalia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
745 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE IDALIA MAKES LANDFALL
IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...745 AM POSITION UPDATE...

NOAA Doppler radar imagery indicate that the eye of Idalia made
landfall along the coast of the Florida Big Bend near Keaton Beach
around 745 AM EDT (1145 UTC). Data from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Idalia's maximum sustained
winds were near 125 mph (205 km/h). The latest minimum pressure
central pressure estimated from reconnaissance data is 949 mb (28.02
inches).

Within the past hour, a C-MAN station at Keaton Beach, Florida,
measured sustained winds of 61 mph (98 km/h), with a gust to 77 mph
(124 km/h). A Florida Coastal Monitoring Program tower located
southwest of Hampton Springs, Florida, recently reported a wind gust
of 68 mph (109 km/h).

Water levels along the coast of the Florida Big Bend are rising
rapidly. A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge at Cedar Key,
Florida, recently reported a water level of 5.9 feet above mean
higher high water, which is an approximation of inundation in that
area.

SUMMARY OF 745 AM EDT...1145 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 83.6W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM S OF PERRY FLORIDA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.02 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Stevenson

>

Original Message :

WTNT65 KNHC 301059
TCUAT5

Hurricane Idalia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
700 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OCCURRING IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...
...7 AM POSITION UPDATE...

Radar and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data
indicate that an eyewall replacement cycle has begun. Idalia's
maximum sustained winds are now estimated near 125 mph (205 km/h)
with higher gusts. This change in wind speed does not diminish the
threat of catastrophic storm surge and damaging winds.

The estimated minimum pressure indicated by Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 947 mb (27.96 inches).

Within the past hour, a C-MAN station on Cedar Key measured
sustained winds of 47 mph (76 km/h), with a gust to 55 mph (88
km/h), and a Weatherflow station at Apalachee Bay measured a
sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h), with a gust to 55 mph (88
km/h). A Florida Coastal Monitoring Program tower near Lake City,
Florida, recently reported a wind gust to 51 mph (82 km/h).

A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge at Cedar Key, Florida,
recently reported a water level of 5.2 feet above mean higher high
water, which is an approximation of inundation in that area.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 83.8W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Stevenson

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 301031 CCB
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Idalia Advisory Number 15...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
500 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

Corrected hurricane warning area

...IDALIA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS ARE NEARING THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 84.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the east coast of the
United States from Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South
Carolina.

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from St. Catherine's Sound to
South Santee River.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Edisto Beach South Carolina
to South Santee River South Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from North of Surf City
North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border, and Pamlico
and Albemarle Sounds.

A Storm Surge Watch has been extended northeastward to Ocracoke
Inlet.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the west coast of Florida from
Bonita Beach southward is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay
* St. Catherine's Sound to South Santee River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa
Bay
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key
* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Surf City North Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to St. Catherine's Sound Georgia
* Beaufort Inlet to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers North Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound
* Edisto Beach to South Santee River

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Additional warnings could be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Idalia was located
by Tallahassee radar near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 84.1 West.
Idalia is moving toward the north-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h).
A north-northeastward motion is expected through the morning, with
Idalia's center forecast to reach the Big Bend coast of Florida this
morning. After landfall, Idalia is forecast to turn toward the
northeast and east-northeast, moving near or along the coasts of
Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina late today and Thursday.

Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts.
Idalia is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale. Idalia could continue to strengthen before it
reaches the Big Bend coast of Florida in a few hours. While
Idalia should weaken after landfall, it is likely to still be a
hurricane while moving across southern Georgia, and near the coast
of Georgia or southern South Carolina late today. Idalia should
emerge off the southeastern United States coast early on Thursday
and move eastward through late week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches)
based on aircraft data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Wakulla/Jefferson County, FL to Yankeetown, FL...12-16 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Wakulla/Jefferson County, FL...8-12 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Carrabelle, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-8 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-6 ft
Tampa Bay...4-6 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Carrabelle, FL...3-5 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Saint Catherines Sound, GA to South Santee River, SC...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...2-4 ft
Beaufort Inlet, NC to Ocracoke Inlet, NC...2-4 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Saint Catherines Sound, GA...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Neuse and Bay Rivers...2-4 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...2-4 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of the St. Mary's
River...1-3 ft
Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...1-3 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
South Santee River, SC to Beaufort Inlet, NC...1-3 ft
Ocracoke Inlet, NC to Duck, NC...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in Florida soon, with tropical storm conditions
spreading northward and westward through this morning.

Tropical storm conditions will continue within the tropical storm
warning area along the Florida Gulf and west coasts.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area
along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina later today and
tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area along
the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina later today and tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later today in the
warning area along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina, and spread into North Carolina tonight and Thursday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce a swath of 4 to 8 inches of
rainfall with isolated maxima up to 12 inches from the Florida Big
Bend through central Georgia and South Carolina, and through eastern
North Carolina into Thursday. These rainfall amounts will lead to
areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with
considerable impacts.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting the southwestern
coast of Florida and will spread northward and westward to the
north-central Gulf coast through today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this morning across
west-central and northern Florida into southeast Georgia, with the
tornado risk shifting toward the coastal Carolinas this afternoon
and tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT65 KNHC 301000
TCUAT5

Hurricane Idalia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
600 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION THIS MORNING...
...6 AM POSITION UPDATE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Idalia has maximum sustained winds of 130 mph (215 km/h) with
higher gusts.

The estimated minimum pressure indicated by Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 942 mb (27.82 inches).

Within the past hour, a C-MAN station on Cedar Key measured
sustained winds of 41 mph (66 km/h), with a gust to 47 mph (76
km/h), and a Weatherflow station at Apalachee Bay measured a
sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h), with a gust to 51 mph (83
km/h).

SUMMARY OF 600 AM EDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 83.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...27 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stevenson

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 300923 CCA
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Idalia Advisory Number 15...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
500 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

Corrected storm surge watch changes

...IDALIA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS ARE NEARING THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 84.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the east coast of the
United States from Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South
Carolina.

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from St. Catherine's Sound to
South Santee River.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Edisto Beach South Carolina
to South Santee River South Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from North of Surf City
North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border, and Pamlico
and Albemarle Sounds.

A Storm Surge Watch has been extended northeastward to Ocracoke
Inlet.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the west coast of Florida from
Bonita Beach southward is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay
* St. Catherine's Sound to South Santee River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa
Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key
* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Surf City North Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to St. Catherine's Sound Georgia
* Beaufort Inlet to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers North Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound
* Edisto Beach to South Santee River

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Additional warnings could be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Idalia was located
by Tallahassee radar near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 84.1 West.
Idalia is moving toward the north-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h).
A north-northeastward motion is expected through the morning, with
Idalia's center forecast to reach the Big Bend coast of Florida this
morning. After landfall, Idalia is forecast to turn toward the
northeast and east-northeast, moving near or along the coasts of
Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina late today and Thursday.

Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts.
Idalia is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale. Idalia could continue to strengthen before it
reaches the Big Bend coast of Florida in a few hours. While
Idalia should weaken after landfall, it is likely to still be a
hurricane while moving across southern Georgia, and near the coast
of Georgia or southern South Carolina late today. Idalia should
emerge off the southeastern United States coast early on Thursday
and move eastward through late week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches)
based on aircraft data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Wakulla/Jefferson County, FL to Yankeetown, FL...12-16 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Wakulla/Jefferson County, FL...8-12 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Carrabelle, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-8 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-6 ft
Tampa Bay...4-6 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Carrabelle, FL...3-5 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Saint Catherines Sound, GA to South Santee River, SC...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...2-4 ft
Beaufort Inlet, NC to Ocracoke Inlet, NC...2-4 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Saint Catherines Sound, GA...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Neuse and Bay Rivers...2-4 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...2-4 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of the St. Mary's
River...1-3 ft
Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...1-3 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
South Santee River, SC to Beaufort Inlet, NC...1-3 ft
Ocracoke Inlet, NC to Duck, NC...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in Florida soon, with tropical storm conditions
spreading northward and westward through this morning.

Tropical storm conditions will continue within the tropical storm
warning area along the Florida Gulf and west coasts.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area
along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina later today and
tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area along
the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina later today and tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later today in the
warning area along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina, and spread into North Carolina tonight and Thursday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce a swath of 4 to 8 inches of
rainfall with isolated maxima up to 12 inches from the Florida Big
Bend through central Georgia and South Carolina, and through eastern
North Carolina into Thursday. These rainfall amounts will lead to
areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with
considerable impacts.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting the southwestern
coast of Florida and will spread northward and westward to the
north-central Gulf coast through today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this morning across
west-central and northern Florida into southeast Georgia, with the
tornado risk shifting toward the coastal Carolinas this afternoon
and tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 300858
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Idalia Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
500 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

...IDALIA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS ARE NEARING THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 84.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the east coast of the
United States from Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South
Carolina.

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from St. Catherine's Sound to
South Santee River.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Edisto Beach South Carolina
to South Santee River South Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from North of Surf City
North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border, and Pamlico
and Albemarle Sounds.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the west coast of Florida from
Bonita Beach southward is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay
* St. Catherine's Sound to South Santee River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa
Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key
* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Surf City North Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to St. Catherine's Sound Georgia
* Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet North Carolina
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers North Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound
* Edisto Beach to South Santee River

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Additional warnings could be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Idalia was located
by Tallahassee radar near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 84.1 West.
Idalia is moving toward the north-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h).
A north-northeastward motion is expected through the morning, with
Idalia's center forecast to reach the Big Bend coast of Florida this
morning. After landfall, Idalia is forecast to turn toward the
northeast and east-northeast, moving near or along the coasts of
Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina late today and Thursday.

Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts.
Idalia is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale. Idalia could continue to strengthen before it
reaches the Big Bend coast of Florida in a few hours. While
Idalia should weaken after landfall, it is likely to still be a
hurricane while moving across southern Georgia, and near the coast
of Georgia or southern South Carolina late today. Idalia should
emerge off the southeastern United States coast early on Thursday
and move eastward through late week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches)
based on aircraft data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Wakulla/Jefferson County, FL to Yankeetown, FL...12-16 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Wakulla/Jefferson County, FL...8-12 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Carrabelle, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-8 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-6 ft
Tampa Bay...4-6 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Carrabelle, FL...3-5 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Saint Catherines Sound, GA to South Santee River, SC...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...2-4 ft
Beaufort Inlet, NC to Ocracoke Inlet, NC...2-4 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Saint Catherines Sound, GA...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Neuse and Bay Rivers...2-4 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...2-4 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of the St. Mary's
River...1-3 ft
Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...1-3 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
South Santee River, SC to Beaufort Inlet, NC...1-3 ft
Ocracoke Inlet, NC to Duck, NC...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in Florida soon, with tropical storm conditions
spreading northward and westward through this morning.

Tropical storm conditions will continue within the tropical storm
warning area along the Florida Gulf and west coasts.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area
along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina later today and
tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area along
the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina later today and tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later today in the
warning area along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina, and spread into North Carolina tonight and Thursday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce a swath of 4 to 8 inches of
rainfall with isolated maxima up to 12 inches from the Florida Big
Bend through central Georgia and South Carolina, and through eastern
North Carolina into Thursday. These rainfall amounts will lead to
areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with
considerable impacts.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting the southwestern
coast of Florida and will spread northward and westward to the
north-central Gulf coast through today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this morning across
west-central and northern Florida into southeast Georgia, with the
tornado risk shifting toward the coastal Carolinas this afternoon
and tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 300857
TCDAT5

Hurricane Idalia Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
500 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

Idalia continues to undergo rapid intensification. Maximum
flight-level winds were 123 kt, with believable SFMR values of 115
kt. Satellite images show a small eye surrounded by very cold
clouds tops, especially in the western quadrant. The initial wind
speed is set to 115 kt, making Idalia an extremely dangerous
category 4 hurricane.

The hurricane still has a few hours left to intensify before it
makes landfall. The biggest change to the intensity forecast is to
increase the wind speeds over southeastern Georgia and South
Carolina as the rapid motion and track close to the coast is
expected to keep the system near hurricane strength for longer.
Thus a Hurricane Warning has been issued for a portion of those
coasts, and the Hurricane Watch is extended northeastward. After
the hurricane moves offshore, the wind field on the northwestern
side near eastern North Carolina is expected to be enhanced by a
cold front, and the Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a
Tropical Storm Warning in that area. The long-range intensity
forecast is quite uncertain with Idalia taking on some hybrid
characteristics due to a baroclinc trough. No changes were made at
this time, and the forecast remains close to the consensus.

Idalia is moving faster toward the north-northeast or 025/16 kt.
After landfall, Idalia is expected to move near or along the coast
of Georgia and the Carolinas in 24-36 hours. Uncertainty in the
track forecast beyond 48 hours remains quite large, and the latest
guidance is significantly faster. The new forecast is adjusted
toward the consensus, but could be too slow at long range.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Catastrophic impacts from storm surge inundation of 12 to 16 feet
above ground level and destructive waves are expected somewhere
between the Wakulla/Jefferson County line and Yankeetown, Florida.
Life-threatening storm surge inundation is likely elsewhere along
portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.

2. Destructive life-threatening winds will occur where the core of
Idalia moves onshore in the Big Bend region of Florida, with
hurricane conditions expected elsewhere in portions of the Hurricane
Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast. Strong winds will also
spread inland across portions of northern Florida and southern
Georgia near the track of the center of Idalia where Hurricane
Warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should be prepared
for long-duration power outages. Damaging hurricane-force winds are
likely in portions of eastern Georgia and southeastern South
Carolina where Hurricane Warnings are now in effect.

3. Areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with
considerable impacts, are expected from the Florida Big Ben through,
central Georgia and South Carolina, through eastern North Carolina
into Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 29.1N 84.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 31.0N 82.7W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
24H 31/0600Z 33.1N 79.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 31/1800Z 33.8N 76.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 01/0600Z 33.3N 72.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 01/1800Z 32.4N 70.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 31.5N 69.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 30.7N 68.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 30.5N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 300856
TCMAT5

HURRICANE IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
0900 UTC WED AUG 30 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 84.1W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 150SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 135SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 84.1W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 84.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 31.0N 82.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 160SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 33.1N 79.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 170SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 33.8N 76.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 130SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 33.3N 72.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...170NE 80SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 32.4N 70.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 31.5N 69.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 60SE 80SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 30.7N 68.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 30.5N 66.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 84.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 30/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT65 KNHC 300800
TCUAT5

Hurricane Idalia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION THIS MORNING WHEN IDALIA MOVES INLAND...
...4 AM POSITION UPDATE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Idalia continues to rapidly intensify. The maximum sustained
winds have increased to 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts.

Idalia's pressure is dropping quickly. The estimated minimum
pressure indicated by dropsonde data from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 941 mb (27.79 inches).

NOAA buoy 42036 recently reported sustained winds of 56 mph (90
km/h) and a wind gust to 82 mph (132 km/h) while Idalia's western
eyewall moved just to the east of the buoy.

A C-MAN station on Cedar Key measured sustained tropical-storm-force
winds within the past hour, with a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 400 AM EDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 84.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...27 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT65 KNHC 300658
TCUAT5

Hurricane Idalia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
300 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION THIS MORNING WHEN IDALIA MOVES INLAND...
...3 AM POSITION UPDATE...

The estimated minimum pressure indicated by dropsonde data from an
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 944 mb (27.88
inches).

NOAA buoy 42036 recently reported sustained winds of 63 mph (101
km/h) and a wind gust to 78 mph (126 km/h) in the western rainbands
of Idalia.

Several observing sites along the west coast of Florida have
reported tropical-storm force winds during the past hour.

SUMMARY OF 300 AM EDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 84.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 300555
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

...IDALIA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS EXPECTED IN
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION THIS MORNING WHEN IDALIA MOVES INLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 84.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...175 KM SW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa
Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key
* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Surf City North Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South
Carolina
* Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet North Carolina
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers North Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Edisto Beach South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia
border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Idalia was located
near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 84.5 West. Idalia is moving
toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northward to
north-northeastward motion is expected through morning, with
Idalia's center forecast to reach the Big Bend coast of Florida this
morning. After landfall, Idalia is forecast to turn toward the
northeast and east-northeast, moving near or along the coasts of
Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina late today and Thursday.

Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Idalia
is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.
Additional strengthening is forecast, and Idalia is forecast to
become a category 4 hurricane before it reaches the Big Bend coast
of Florida this morning. Idalia is likely to still be a hurricane
while moving across southern Georgia, and possibly when it reaches
the coast of Georgia or southern South Carolina late today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km). NOAA buoy 42036 recently reported sustained winds of 54
mph (87 km/h) and a gust to 69 mph (111 km/h) in the northern
rainbands of Idalia. Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport (KSRQ)
recently reported sustained winds of 35 mph (56 km/h) with a gust to
67 mph (108 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 945 mb (27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Wakulla/Jefferson County line, FL to Yankeetown, FL...12-16 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Wakulla/Jefferson County line, FL...8-12 ft
Yankeetown to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Carrabelle, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-8 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-6 ft
Tampa Bay...4-6 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Carrabelle, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee, SC...2-4 ft
Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet, NC...2-4 ft
Pamlico and Neuse Rivers...2-4 ft
South of Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee, FL...1-3 ft
South Santee, SC to Beaufort Inlet, NC...1-3 ft
Drum Inlet to Duck, NC...1-3 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of St. Mary's River...1-3
ft
Indian Pass to Mexico Beach...1 to 3 ft
Florida Keys...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in Florida in a few hours, with tropical storm
conditions spreading northward and westward through this morning.

Tropical storm conditions will continue within the tropical storm
warning area along the Florida Gulf and west coasts.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along
the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina later today and tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later today in the
warning area along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina, and spread into North Carolina tonight and Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in
North Carolina by Thursday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce a swath of 4 to 8 inches of
rainfall with isolated maxima up to 12 inches from the Florida Big
Bend through central Georgia and South Carolina, and through eastern
North Carolina into Thursday. These rainfall amounts will lead to
areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with locally
considerable impacts.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting the southwestern
coast of Florida and will spread northward and westward to the
north-central Gulf coast through today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible overnight from the coast of
west-central Florida northward into the Florida Big Bend region.
The tornado risk will shift into southeast Georgia and the coastal
Carolinas later today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT65 KNHC 300458
TCUAT5

Hurricane Idalia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
100 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION THIS MORNING WHEN IDALIA MOVES INLAND...
...1 AM POSITION UPDATE...

NOAA buoy 42036 recently reported sustained winds of 54 mph (87
km/h) and a gust to 65 mph (105 km/h) in the northern rainbands of
Idalia

Sarasota Bradenton International Airport (KSRQ) recently reported
sustained winds of 37 mph (60 km/h) with a gust to 61 mph (98 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 100 AM EDT...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 84.6W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT65 KNHC 300357
TCUAT5

Hurricane Idalia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1200 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION THIS MORNING WHEN IDALIA MOVES INLAND...
...12 AM POSITION UPDATE...

NOAA buoy 42036 recently reported sustained winds of 49 mph (79
km/h) and a gust to 60 mph (97 km/h) in the northern rainbands of
Idalia

SUMMARY OF 1200 AM EDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 84.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...27 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 300259
TCDAT5

Hurricane Idalia Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

Satellite and NWS radar imagery show that Idalia is becoming
increasingly more organized. The eye on the Tampa WSR-88D is
becoming better defined and the cloud pattern on GOES 16 imagery
consists of a growing Central Dense Overcast with a strong
convective band over the eastern semicircle of the circulation.
Reconnaissance aircraft measurements show that the central pressure
is steadily falling and is now around 958 mb. Flight-level and
SFMR-observed winds along with Doppler velocity data from the
aircraft support an intensity of 95 kt for this advisory.

Idalia is now moving faster toward the north or slightly east of
north with a motion estimate of 010/16 kt. The hurricane is moving
between a mid-level trough over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and
ridge over the Bahamas and Greater Antilles. The system is expected
to turn north-northeastward within the next 12 hours, make landfall
along the northeastern Gulf coast, and then move northeastward to
eastward on the southern side of a mid-level trough moving off the
northeast U.S. coast. The 12-hour track forecast point for this
advisory has been nudged a bit westward, a little west of the model
consensus, but close to the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions. It
should be noted that some credible models, i.e. the HAFS-A and
HAFS-B predictions, are even a little father west.

After landfall, Idalia is expected to move near or along the coast
of Georgia and the Carolinas in 24-36 hours. Uncertainty in the
track forecast beyond 48 hours remains quite large, with some of
the global models turning Idalia southward, while some of the
regional hurricane models show the storm moving out to sea. Given
the uncertainties, the official track forecast shows a slow
southeastward motion in 4 to 5 days.

Based on the current strengthening trend and the favorable
thermodynamic and oceanic conditions, significant strengthening
seems likely up to landfall. The new official intensity forecast
calls for Idalia to reach category 4 strength at landfall. This is
fairly close to the HAFS And HWRF regional hurricane model
simulations. After the center moves back over the Atlantic,
significant restrengthening is not anticipated at this time due to
the expectation of strong vertical west-southwesterly vertical wind
shear.

Dangerous winds are likely to spread well inland near the path of
Idalia due to its relatively fast forward motion.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Catastrophic impacts from storm surge inundation of 12 to 16 feet
above ground level and destructive waves are expected somewhere
between the Wakulla/Jefferson County line and Yankeetown, Florida.
Life-threatening storm surge inundation is likely elsewhere along
portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.

2. There is the potential for destructive life-threatening winds
where the core of Idalia moves onshore in the Big Bend region of
Florida, with hurricane conditions expected elsewhere in portions of
the Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast. Strong
winds will also spread inland across portions of northern Florida
and southern Georgia near the track of the center of Idalia where
Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should be
prepared for long-duration power outages. Damaging hurricane-force
winds are possible in portions of eastern Georgia and southeastern
South Carolina where Hurricane Watches are in effect.

3. Areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with locally
considerable impacts, are expected across the Florida Big Bend,
central Georgia and South Carolina, through eastern North Carolina
into Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 27.7N 84.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 30.0N 83.9W 115 KT 130 MPH...ON COAST
24H 31/0000Z 32.3N 81.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
36H 31/1200Z 33.5N 78.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 01/0000Z 33.8N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 01/1200Z 33.5N 72.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 32.9N 71.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 32.0N 69.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 31.0N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 300256
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Idalia Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

...IDALIA STILL STRENGTHENING...
...FORECAST TO BE AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY AT
LANDFALL...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 84.5W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Dry Tortugas is discontinued,
and the Tropical Storm Watch for the Lower Florida Keys is
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa
Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key
* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Surf City North Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South
Carolina
* Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet North Carolina
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers North Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Edisto Beach South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia
border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional warnings will likely be required tonight or on Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Idalia was
located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 84.5 West. Idalia is
moving toward the north near 18 mph (30 km/h). A northward to
north-northeastward motion is expected through tonight, with
Idalia's center forecast to reach the Big Bend coast of Florida on
Wednesday morning. After landfall, the center of Idalia is forecast
to turn toward the northeast and east-northeast, moving near or
along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina late
Wednesday and Thursday.

Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained
winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional
strengthening is forecast, and Idalia is expected to become a
major hurricane during the next few hours before it reaches the Big
Bend coast of Florida. Idalia is likely to still be a hurricane
while moving across southern Georgia, and possibly when it reaches
the coast of Georgia or southern South Carolina on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Wakulla/Jefferson County line, FL to Yankeetown, FL...12-16 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Wakulla/Jefferson County line, FL...8-12 ft
Yankeetown to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Carrabelle, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-8 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-6 ft
Tampa Bay...4-6 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Carrabelle, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee, SC...2-4 ft
Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet, NC...2-4 ft
Pamlico and Neuse Rivers...2-4 ft
South of Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee, FL...1-3 ft
South Santee, SC to Beaufort Inlet, NC...1-3 ft
Drum Inlet to Duck, NC...1-3 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of St. Mary's River...1-3
ft
Indian Pass to Mexico Beach...1 to 3 ft
Florida Keys...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in Florida early Wednesday morning, with tropical
storm conditions beginning within the next few hours.

Tropical storm conditions will begin within the tropical storm
warning area along the Florida Gulf coast and the Florida west coast
soon.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Wednesday in the
warning area along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina, and spread into North Carolina Wednesday night and
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in North Carolina by Thursday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce a swath of 4 to 8 inches of
rainfall with isolated maxima up to 12 inches from the Florida Big
Bend through central Georgia and South Carolina, and through eastern
North Carolina into Thursday. These rainfall amounts will lead to
areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with locally
considerable impacts.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting the southwestern
coast of Florida and will spread northward and westward to the
north-central Gulf coast through Wednesday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible tonight from the coast of
west-central Florida northward into the Florida Big Bend region.
The tornado risk will shift into southeast Georgia and the coastal
Carolinas on Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 300254
TCMAT5

HURRICANE IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
0300 UTC WED AUG 30 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 84.5W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 84.5W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 84.7W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 30.0N 83.9W...ON COAST
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 160SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 32.3N 81.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 15NW.
34 KT... 90NE 170SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 33.5N 78.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 160SE 80SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 33.8N 75.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 33.5N 72.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 32.9N 71.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 50SE 80SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 32.0N 69.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 31.0N 68.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.7N 84.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 30/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT65 KNHC 300157
TCUAT5

Hurricane Idalia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

...IDALIA FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TONIGHT...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS LIKELY TOMORROW
MORNING WHERE THE CORE OF IDALIA MOVES INLAND...

NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate
that Idalia has strengthened further. Maximum sustained winds have
increased to 110 mph (175 km/h). The minimum pressure based on
dropsonde data from the aircraft has fallen to 960 mb (28.35
inches).

The National Hurricane Center has begun hourly position and
intensity updates on Idalia. The hourly updates will continue as
long as Idalia's eye is easily trackable in ground-based radar data.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 84.6W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...29 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 292354
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

...IDALIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 84.7W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa
Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas Florida
* Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key
* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Surf City North Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South
Carolina
* Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet North Carolina
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers North Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Edisto Beach South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge
* North of Surf City North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia
border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional warnings will likely be required tonight or on Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Idalia was located
near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 84.7 West. Idalia is moving
toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h). A northward to
north-northeastward motion is expected through tonight, with
Idalia's center forecast to reach the Big Bend coast of Florida on
Wednesday morning. After landfall, the center of Idalia is forecast
to turn toward the northeast and east-northeast, moving near or
along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina late
Wednesday and Thursday.

Observations from Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Idalia
is expected to become a major hurricane tonight before it reaches
the Big Bend coast of Florida. Idalia is likely to still be a
hurricane while moving across southern Georgia, and possibly when it
reaches the coast of Georgia or southern South Carolina on
Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft
observations is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aucilla River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...10-15 ft
Yankeetown to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...7-11 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-6 ft
Tampa Bay...4-6 ft
Carrabelle, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...4-7 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Carrabelle, FL...3-5 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee, SC...2-4 ft
Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet, NC...2-4 ft
Pamlico and Neuse Rivers...2-4 ft
South of Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee, FL...1-3 ft
South Santee, SC to Beaufort Inlet, NC...1-3 ft
Drum Inlet to Duck, NC...1-3 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of St. Mary's River...1-3
ft
Indian Pass to Mexico Beach...1 to 3 ft.
Florida Keys...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in Florida by tonight or early Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions beginning soon.

Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Dry Tortugas and are
possible within the Lower Florida Keys. Tropical storm conditions
will begin within the tropical storm warning area along the Florida
Gulf coast and the Florida west coast soon.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Wednesday in the
warning area along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina, and spread into North Carolina Wednesday night and
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in North Carolina by Thursday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Western Cuba: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle,
southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas: 4 to 8 inches from
Tuesday into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches
are possible, primarily near landfall in northern Florida.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba.

Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into
Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting the southwestern
coast of Florida and will spread northward and westward to the
north-central Gulf coast through Wednesday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible along the west central
Florida coast through tonight. The tornado threat will also spread
northward into the Florida Big Bend tonight, and toward southeast
Georgia and the coastal Carolinas Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 292137 CCB
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Idalia Advisory Number 13...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

Corrected Tropical Storm Warning area


...IDALIA NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 84.8W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the mouth of the St. Mary's
River northward to Edisto Beach.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Beaufort Inlet to Drum
Inlet, North Carolina, as well as the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from South Santee River
northward to Surf City, North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Watch has
been issued north of Surf City to the North Carolina/Virginia
border, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

The Hurricane Watch from Englewood to the Middle of Longboat Key
has been discontinued.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued south of Bonita Beach,
Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa
Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas Florida
* Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key
* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Surf City North Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South
Carolina
* Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet North Carolina
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers North Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Edisto Beach South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge
* North of Surf City North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia
border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional warnings will likely be required tonight or on Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Idalia was located
near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 84.8 West. Idalia is moving
toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h). A northward to
north-northeastward motion is expected through tonight, with
Idalia's center forecast to reach the Big Bend coast of Florida on
Wednesday morning. After landfall, the center of Idalia is
forecast to turn toward the northeast and east, moving near or
along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina
late Wednesday and Thursday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155
km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Idalia is expected to become a major hurricane tonight before it
reaches the Big Bend coast of Florida. Idalia is likely to still
be a hurricane while moving across southern Georgia, and possibly
when it reaches the coast of Georgia or southern South Carolina on
Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance data is 972 mb
(28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aucilla River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...10-15 ft
Yankeetown to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...7-11 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-6 ft
Tampa Bay...4-6 ft
Carrabelle, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...4-7 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Carrabelle, FL...3-5 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee, SC...2-4 ft
Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet, NC...2-4 ft
Pamlico and Neuse Rivers...2-4 ft
South of Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee, FL...1-3 ft
South Santee, SC to Beaufort Inlet, NC...1-3 ft
Drum Inlet to Duck, NC...1-3 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of St. Mary's River...1-3
ft
Indian Pass to Mexico Beach...1 to 3 ft.
Florida Keys...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in Florida by tonight or early Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions beginning soon.

Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Dry Tortugas and are
possible within the Lower Florida Keys. Tropical storm conditions
will begin within the tropical storm warning area along the Florida
Gulf coast and the Florida west coast soon.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Wednesday in the
warning area along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina, and spread into North Carolina Wednesday night and
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in North Carolina by Thursday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Western Cuba: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle,
southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas: 4 to 8 inches from
Tuesday into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches
are possible, primarily near landfall in northern Florida.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba.

Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into
Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting the southwestern
coast of Florida and will spread northward and westward to the
north-central Gulf coast through Wednesday. Swells affecting
portions of the southern coast of Cuba will subside tonight. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible along the west central
Florida coast through tonight. The tornado threat will also spread
northward into the Florida Big Bend tonight, and toward southeast
Georgia and the coastal Carolinas Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 292117 CCA
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Idalia Advisory Number 13...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

Corrected surge values in Tampa Bay


...IDALIA NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 84.8W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the mouth of the St. Mary's
River northward to Edisto Beach.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Beaufort Inlet to Drum
Inlet, North Carolina, as well as the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from South Santee River
northward to Surf City, North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Watch has
been issued north of Surf City to the North Carolina/Virginia
border, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

The Hurricane Watch from Englewood to the Middle of Longboat Key
has been discontinued.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued south of Bonita Beach,
Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa
Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas Florida
* Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key
* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to South Santee River South Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South
Carolina
* Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet North Carolina
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers North Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Edisto Beach South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge
* North of Surf City North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia
border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional warnings will likely be required tonight or on Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Idalia was located
near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 84.8 West. Idalia is moving
toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h). A northward to
north-northeastward motion is expected through tonight, with
Idalia's center forecast to reach the Big Bend coast of Florida on
Wednesday morning. After landfall, the center of Idalia is
forecast to turn toward the northeast and east, moving near or
along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina
late Wednesday and Thursday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155
km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Idalia is expected to become a major hurricane tonight before it
reaches the Big Bend coast of Florida. Idalia is likely to still
be a hurricane while moving across southern Georgia, and possibly
when it reaches the coast of Georgia or southern South Carolina on
Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance data is 972 mb
(28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aucilla River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...10-15 ft
Yankeetown to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...7-11 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-6 ft
Tampa Bay...4-6 ft
Carrabelle, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...4-7 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Carrabelle, FL...3-5 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee, SC...2-4 ft
Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet, NC...2-4 ft
Pamlico and Neuse Rivers...2-4 ft
South of Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee, FL...1-3 ft
South Santee, SC to Beaufort Inlet, NC...1-3 ft
Drum Inlet to Duck, NC...1-3 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of St. Mary's River...1-3
ft
Indian Pass to Mexico Beach...1 to 3 ft.
Florida Keys...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in Florida by tonight or early Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions beginning soon.

Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Dry Tortugas and are
possible within the Lower Florida Keys. Tropical storm conditions
will begin within the tropical storm warning area along the Florida
Gulf coast and the Florida west coast soon.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Wednesday in the
warning area along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina, and spread into North Carolina Wednesday night and
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in North Carolina by Thursday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Western Cuba: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle,
southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas: 4 to 8 inches from
Tuesday into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches
are possible, primarily near landfall in northern Florida.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba.

Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into
Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting the southwestern
coast of Florida and will spread northward and westward to the
north-central Gulf coast through Wednesday. Swells affecting
portions of the southern coast of Cuba will subside tonight. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible along the west central
Florida coast through tonight. The tornado threat will also spread
northward into the Florida Big Bend tonight, and toward southeast
Georgia and the coastal Carolinas Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 292056
TCDAT5

Hurricane Idalia Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

The first stages of an eye have been taking shape in visible
satellite imagery. The hurricane has a relatively small Central
Dense Overcast and a prominent band of deep convection extending
over the eastern semicircle, reaching across the Florida peninsula
southward across western Cuba. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft just measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 91
kt with the pressure falling to 972 mb. The initial intensity is
therefore set at 85 kt.

Idalia is moving faster toward the north, or 360/14 kt, between a
mid-level trough over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and a
subtropical ridge over the Greater Antilles. Idalia is expected to
continue moving northward and turn north-northeastward as it
approaches the Big Bend region of Florida during the next 12-24
hours. There is very little spread among the track guidance, and
the NHC official forecast has been placed very close to the HCCA
and TVCX consensus aids during the first 24 hours. This has
resulted in a westward shift of about 20-25 n mi compared to the
previous forecast, although it should be stressed that additional
shifts to the track will be possible until the center reaches land.

After landfall, Idalia is expected to turn toward the northeast and
then east, moving near or along the coast of Georgia and the
Carolinas in 36-48 hours. Uncertainty in the track forecast is
still quite large after 48 hours, with many of the global models
turning Idalia southward, while some of the regional hurricane
models still show the storm moving out to sea. As a result, the
official track forecast continues to show slow motion on days 4 and
5.

The 12-hour intensity forecast shows a 100-kt major hurricane. It
is imperative to realize that Idalia is expected to continue
strengthening beyond that time, possibly close to the 110 kt shown
in the previous forecast, before the center reaches land.
Weakening is expected after landfall, but due to the system's
expected fast motion, it is possible that Idalia could maintain
hurricane intensity as it moves across southern Georgia and
approaches the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. After
Idalia's center moves offshore over the western Atlantic, strong
shear is likely to limit re-intensification, and the official
forecast essentially flatlines the intensity on days 2-5.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Catastrophic impacts from storm surge inundation of 10 to 15 feet
above ground level and destructive waves are expected somewhere
between Aucilla River and Yankeetown, Florida. Life-threatening
storm surge inundation is likely elsewhere along portions of the
Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect.
Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local
officials.

2. There is the potential for destructive life-threatening winds
where the core of Idalia moves onshore in the Big Bend region of
Florida, with hurricane conditions expected elsewhere in portions of
the Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast. Strong
winds will also spread inland across portions of northern Florida
and southern Georgia near the track of the center of Idalia where
Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should be
prepared for long-duration power outages. Damaging hurricane-force
winds are possible in portions of eastern Georgia and southeastern
South Carolina where Hurricane Watches are in effect.

3. Areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with locally
considerable impacts, are expected across the Florida Big Bend,
central Georgia and South Carolina, through eastern North Carolina
later tonight into Thursday.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 26.1N 84.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 28.3N 84.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 31.0N 82.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 31/0600Z 32.9N 80.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 31/1800Z 33.9N 77.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 01/0600Z 33.8N 74.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 33.3N 71.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 32.3N 69.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 31.7N 69.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 292055
TCMAT5

HURRICANE IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
2100 UTC TUE AUG 29 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 84.8W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 84.8W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 84.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 28.3N 84.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 160SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 31.0N 82.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 15NW.
34 KT... 90NE 170SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 32.9N 80.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 160SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 33.9N 77.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 33.8N 74.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 33.3N 71.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 50SE 80SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 32.3N 69.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 31.7N 69.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 84.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 30/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 292055
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Idalia Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

...IDALIA NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 84.8W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the mouth of the St. Mary's
River northward to Edisto Beach.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Beaufort Inlet to Drum
Inlet, North Carolina, as well as the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from South Santee River
northward to Surf City, North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Watch has
been issued north of Surf City to the North Carolina/Virginia
border, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

The Hurricane Watch from Englewood to the Middle of Longboat Key
has been discontinued.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued south of Bonita Beach,
Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa
Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas Florida
* Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key
* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to South Santee River South Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South
Carolina
* Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet North Carolina
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers North Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Edisto Beach South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge
* North of Surf City North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia
border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional warnings will likely be required tonight or on Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Idalia was located
near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 84.8 West. Idalia is moving
toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h). A northward to
north-northeastward motion is expected through tonight, with
Idalia's center forecast to reach the Big Bend coast of Florida on
Wednesday morning. After landfall, the center of Idalia is
forecast to turn toward the northeast and east, moving near or
along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina
late Wednesday and Thursday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155
km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Idalia is expected to become a major hurricane tonight before it
reaches the Big Bend coast of Florida. Idalia is likely to still
be a hurricane while moving across southern Georgia, and possibly
when it reaches the coast of Georgia or southern South Carolina on
Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance data is 972 mb
(28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aucilla River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...10-15 ft
Yankeetown to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...7-11 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-6 ft
Tampa Bay...4-7 ft
Carrabelle, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...4-7 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Carrabelle, FL...3-5 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee, SC...2-4 ft
Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet, NC...2-4 ft
Pamlico and Neuse Rivers...2-4 ft
South of Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee, FL...1-3 ft
South Santee, SC to Beaufort Inlet, NC...1-3 ft
Drum Inlet to Duck, NC...1-3 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of St. Mary's River...1-3
ft
Indian Pass to Mexico Beach...1 to 3 ft.
Florida Keys...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in Florida by tonight or early Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions beginning soon.

Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Dry Tortugas and are
possible within the Lower Florida Keys. Tropical storm conditions
will begin within the tropical storm warning area along the Florida
Gulf coast and the Florida west coast soon.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Wednesday in the
warning area along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina, and spread into North Carolina Wednesday night and
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in North Carolina by Thursday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Western Cuba: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle,
southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas: 4 to 8 inches from
Tuesday into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches
are possible, primarily near landfall in northern Florida.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba.

Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into
Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting the southwestern
coast of Florida and will spread northward and westward to the
north-central Gulf coast through Wednesday. Swells affecting
portions of the southern coast of Cuba will subside tonight. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible along the west central
Florida coast through tonight. The tornado threat will also spread
northward into the Florida Big Bend tonight, and toward southeast
Georgia and the coastal Carolinas Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 291744
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

...IDALIA'S SQUALLS OVERSPREADING PORTIONS OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 84.9W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WNW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has discontinued all hurricane and tropical
storm warnings for Cuba.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa
Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas Florida
* Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key
* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to South Santee River South Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South
Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to the Middle of Longboat Key

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge
* South Santee River northward to Surf City North Carolina

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeastern U.S. coast should
monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and
warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Idalia was located
near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 84.9 West. Idalia is moving
toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h). A faster motion toward the
north and north-northeast is expected through early Wednesday while
Idalia approaches the Gulf coast of Florida. A turn toward the
northeast and east-northeast is forecast late Wednesday and
Thursday, bringing the center of Idalia near or along the coasts of
Georgia and the Carolinas.

Satellite images indicate that Idalia continues to strengthen, and
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is expected before
landfall, and Idalia is forecast to be a major hurricane when it
reaches the Gulf coast of Florida Wednesday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aucilla River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...10-15 ft
Yankeetown to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...7-11 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-7 ft
Tampa Bay...4-7 ft
Carrabelle, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...4-7 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Carrabelle, FL...3-5 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee, SC...2-4 ft
South Santee, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of St. Mary's River...1-3
ft
Indian Pass to Mexico Beach...1 to 3 ft.
Florida Keys...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in Florida by tonight or early Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions beginning today.

Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Dry Tortugas and are
possible within the Lower Florida Keys. Tropical storm conditions
will begin within the tropical storm warning area along the Florida
Gulf coast and the Florida west coast later today.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Wednesday in the
warning area along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in South and North Carolina Wednesday night and Thursday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Western Cuba: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle,
southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas: 4 to 8 inches from
Tuesday into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches possible,
primarily near landfall in northern Florida.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba.

Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into
Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting the southwestern
coast of Florida and will spread northward and westward to the
north-central Gulf coast through Wednesday. Swells affecting
portions of the southern coast of Cuba will subside tonight. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible along the west central
Florida coast through tonight. The tornado threat will also spread
northward into the Florida Big Bend tonight, and toward southeast
Georgia and the coastal Carolinas Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 291455
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Idalia Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

...IDALIA STRENGTHENING...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 84.8W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Altamaha Sound,
Georgia, northward to South Santee River, South Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from South Santee River
northward to Surf City, North Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa
Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Isle of Youth Cuba
* Dry Tortugas Florida
* Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key
* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to South Santee River South Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South
Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to the Middle of Longboat Key

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge
* South Santee River northward to Surf City North Carolina

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeastern U.S. coast should
monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and
warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Idalia was
located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 84.8 West. Idalia is
moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A faster motion
toward the north and north-northeast is expected through early
Wednesday while Idalia approaches the Gulf coast of Florida. A
turn toward the northeast and east-northeast is forecast late
Wednesday and Thursday, bringing the center of Idalia near or along
the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is expected before
landfall, and Idalia is forecast to be a major hurricane when it
reaches the Gulf coast of Florida Wednesday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aucilla River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...10-15 ft
Yankeetown to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...6-9 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-7 ft
Tampa Bay...4-7 ft
Carrabelle, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...4-7 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Carrabelle, FL...3-5 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee, SC...2-4 ft
South Santee, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of St. Mary's River...1-3
ft
Indian Pass to Mexico Beach...1 to 3 ft.
Florida Keys...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Elevated water levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio,
Cuba will gradually subside today.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to
continue within the warning areas in western Cuba for the next few
hours.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
in Florida by tonight or early Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning today.

Tropical storm conditions are likely beginning in the Dry Tortugas
and will begin within the tropical storm warning area along the
Florida Gulf coast and the Florida west coast later today.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Wednesday in the
warning area along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in South and North Carolina Wednesday night and Thursday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Western Cuba: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle,
southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas: 4 to 8 inches from
Tuesday into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches possible,
primarily near landfall in northern Florida.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba.

Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into
Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting portions of the
southern coast of Cuba and eastern Yucatan. These swells will
spread northward along the eastern United States Gulf Coast during
the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible along the west central
Florida coast through tonight. The tornado threat will also spread
northward into the Florida Big Bend tonight, and toward southeast
Georgia and the coastal Carolinas Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 291454
TCDAT5

Hurricane Idalia Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

WSR-88D radar data from Key West shows that Idalia's eye is
becoming better defined at an elevation of 30,000 feet, although an
eye has not yet become apparent in visible satellite imagery. A
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a closed eye 20-25 n mi in
diameter, SFMR winds as high as 70 kt, and a central pressure down
to 976 mb. This pressure, and assuming some undersampling of the
SFMR, supports an initial intensity of 75 kt.

Idalia is moving just east of due north, or 005/12 kt, between a
mid-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico and subtropical ridging
over the Greater Antilles. A faster motion toward the north or
north-northeast is expected while Idalia approaches the Florida
coast through Wednesday morning. Confidence is increasing that
Idalia will reach the coast of Florida adjacent to Apalachee Bay
Wednesday morning, with all of the reliable deterministic track
models honed in on that area. Track spread remains low during
Idalia's expected turn toward the northeast and east-northeast in
48-60 hours, bringing the storm's center near or along the coast of
the Carolinas. On days 3 through 5, there is significant
uncertainty on whether Idalia will turn out to sea (as shown by the
COAMPS-TC and HAFS models) or turn southward (as suggested by the
global models). For now, the official forecast shows a slow motion
at the end of the forecast period until the scenario becomes
clearer.

Idalia is currently over a maximum of oceanic heat content
associated with the Loop Current, and water temperatures remain
30-31 degrees Celsius along the forecast path up until landfall.
Vertical shear is also expected to be low for the next 18-24 hours,
and these conditions are expected to foster rapid intensification
before Idalia reaches the coast of Florida. The 06 UTC runs of all
4 regional hurricane models (HAFS-A, HAFS-B, HWRF, and HMON) show
Idalia potentially reaching an intensity of 110-120 kt in 24 hours,
and as a result, the new NHC intensity forecast indicates a peak
intensity of 110 kt just before landfall. Weakening is forecast
while the center of Idalia moves over land, but the system is
expected to be a tropical storm while it moves near or along the
coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas through Thursday.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Catastrophic impacts from storm surge inundation of 10 to 15 feet
above ground level and destructive waves are expected somewhere
between Aucilla River and Yankeetown, Florida. Life-threatening
storm surge inundation is likely elsewhere along portions of the
Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect.
Residents in these areas should follow any advice or evacuation
orders given by local officials.

2. There is the potential for destructive life-threatening winds
where the core of Idalia moves onshore in the Big Bend region of
Florida, with hurricane conditions expected elsewhere in portions of
the Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast. Strong
winds will also spread inland across portions of northern Florida
and southern Georgia near the track of the center of Idalia where
Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should be
prepared for long-duration power outages.

3. Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into
Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.

4. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Idalia is expected across
portions western Cuba and may produce areas of flash and urban
flooding as well as landslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 24.6N 84.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 26.5N 84.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 29.3N 83.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 31.8N 81.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
48H 31/1200Z 33.5N 78.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 01/0000Z 34.1N 75.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 33.8N 73.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 32.5N 70.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 32.0N 68.8W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 291453
TCMAT5

HURRICANE IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
1500 UTC TUE AUG 29 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 84.8W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT.......100NE 140SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 84.8W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 84.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 26.5N 84.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.3N 83.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 31.8N 81.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 140SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 33.5N 78.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 120SE 70SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 34.1N 75.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 33.8N 73.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 60SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 32.5N 70.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 32.0N 68.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 84.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 29/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 291153
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
700 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND IDALIA STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 84.8W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 005 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa
Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Isle of Youth Cuba
* Dry Tortugas Florida
* Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key
* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
* Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South
Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to the Middle of Longboat Key

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge
* Altamaha Sound northward to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeastern U.S. coast should
monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and
warnings along the southeast United States coast will likely be
required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Idalia was located
near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 84.8 West. Idalia is moving
toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northward motion is
expected today, followed by a faster north-northeast motion later
today and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Idalia is
forecast to move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, reach the
Gulf coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area on
Wednesday, and move close to the Carolina coastline on Thursday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid intensification is likely through landfall, and Idalia
is forecast to become an extremely dangerous major hurricane before
landfall on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 977 mb
(28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...8-12 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...5-8 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-7 ft
Tampa Bay...4-7 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...3-5 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee, SC...2-4 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of St. Mary's River...1-3
ft
Indian Pass to Mexico Beach...1 to 3 ft.
Florida Keys...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Elevated water levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio,
Cuba will gradually subside today.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected within
the warning areas in western Cuba through this morning.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
in Florida by late today or Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning today.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas soon and
within the tropical storm warning area along the Florida Gulf coast
and the Florida west coast later today.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Wednesday in the
warning area along the east coast of Florida and South Carolina
Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southeast U.S.
coast within the southern portions of the watch area by early
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Western Cuba: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle,
southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas: 4 to 8 inches from
today into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches possible,
primarily near landfall in northern Florida.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba.

Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia today into
Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting portions of the
southern coast of Cuba and eastern Yucatan. These swells will
spread northward along the eastern United States Gulf Coast during
the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible later day along the
west central Florida coast. The tornado threat will spread
northward into the Florida Big Bend by tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 290859
TCDAT5

Hurricane Idalia Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023

Radar data from western Cuba indicates that Idalia is becoming
better organized. Most of an eyewall has formed, with much more
curvature in the banding features and overall radar pattern.
Satellite imagery also shows the center of Idalia firmly within the
central dense overcast. Thus, the initial wind speed is raised to
65 kt, in accordance with the latest TAFB satellite classification.

The hurricane is accelerating northward this morning, now moving at
about 9 kt. Idalia should move faster to the north or
north-northeast through landfall on Wednesday between mid-level
ridging over Florida and a trough dropping into the western Gulf of
Mexico. There has been a westward shift in the model guidance
overnight, perhaps due to the trough tugging Idalia more
northward before taking a north-northeast turn. It should be
noted that the ECMWF ensemble shows many of its strongest members
on the eastern side of its guidance envelope, which is a
reasonable place to be given the synoptic pattern. The new NHC
forecast is adjusted a little to the west but is now east of the
model consensus on the eastern side of the reliable model guidance.
After Idalia leaves the eastern United States coastline, the track
forecast becomes highly uncertain and little change was made to the
previous forecast.

With an inner core now present, the stage is set for Idalia to
rapidly intensify before landfall. Shear should continue to lower
over the cyclone as an upper-level trough departs the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico and ridging builds closer to the cyclone. These
changes, combined with extremely warm and deep waters the hurricane
will be traversing, all strongly point to rapid intensification.
The new forecast is similar to the previous one, and confidence is
increasing in an extremely dangerous major hurricane making landfall
Wednesday along the west coast or Big Bend region of Florida.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning
is in effect, including Tampa Bay and the Big Bend region of
Florida. Inundation of 8 to 12 feet above ground level is expected
somewhere between Chassahowitzka and Aucilla River. Residents in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast, with the
potential for destructive winds where the core of Idalia moves
onshore. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of
northern Florida near the track of the center of Idalia.

3. Heavy rainfall is expected across portions of western Cuba and
may produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as landslides.
Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia beginning today
into Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 23.1N 85.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 24.9N 84.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 27.8N 84.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 30.6N 82.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
48H 31/0600Z 32.7N 80.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 31/1800Z 33.8N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 01/0600Z 33.9N 74.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 33.3N 71.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 32.5N 70.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 290856
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Idalia Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023

...IDALIA NOW A HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MAJOR
HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 85.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa
Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Isle of Youth Cuba
* Dry Tortugas Florida
* Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key
* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
* Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South
Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to the Middle of Longboat Key

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge
* Altamaha Sound northward to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings along the
southeast United States coast will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Idalia was located
by Cuban radar near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 85.0 West.
Idalia is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A
northward motion is expected today, followed by a faster
north-northeast motion later today and Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Idalia is forecast to move over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico today, reach the Gulf coast of Florida within the
Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday, and move close to the Carolina
coastline on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is likely through
landfall, and Idalia is forecast to become an extremely dangerous
major hurricane before landfall on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...8-12 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...5-8 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-7 ft
Tampa Bay...4-7 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...3-5 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee, SC...2-4 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of St. Mary's River...1-3
ft
Indian Pass to Mexico Beach...1 to 3 ft.
Florida Keys...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Elevated water levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio,
Cuba will gradually subside today.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected within
the warning areas in western Cuba through this morning.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
in Florida by late today or Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning today.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas soon and
within the tropical storm warning area along the Florida Gulf coast
and the Florida west coast later today.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Wednesday in the
warning area along the east coast of Florida and South Carolina
Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southeast U.S.
coast within the southern portions of the watch area by early
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Western Cuba: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle,
southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas: 4 to 8 inches from
today into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches possible,
primarily near landfall in northern Florida.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba.

Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia today into
Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting portions of the
southern coast of Cuba and eastern Yucatan. These swells will
spread northward along the eastern United States Gulf Coast during
the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible later day along the
west central Florida coast. The tornado threat will spread
northward into the Florida Big Bend by tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 290855
TCMAT5

HURRICANE IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
0900 UTC TUE AUG 29 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 85.0W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 140SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 85.0W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 85.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 24.9N 84.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 150SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 27.8N 84.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 30.6N 82.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 150SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 32.7N 80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 150SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 33.8N 77.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 33.9N 74.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 33.3N 71.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 32.5N 70.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 85.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 29/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 290557
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
100 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023

...IDALIA NOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE THIS MORNING AND BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 85.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 190 MI...315 KM SW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa
Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Isle of Youth Cuba
* Dry Tortugas Florida
* Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key
* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
* Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South
Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to the Middle of Longboat Key

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge
* Altamaha Sound northward to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings along the
southeast United States coast will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was
located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 85.0 West. Idalia is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northward motion is
expected today, followed by a faster north-northeast motion later
today and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Idalia
is forecast to move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and
reach the Gulf coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area
on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is predicted during the next day or so.
Idalia could become a hurricane later this morning, and is forecast
to become a major hurricane by early Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...8-12 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...5-8 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-7 ft
Tampa Bay...4-7 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...3-5 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee, SC...2-4 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of St. Mary's River...1-3
ft
Indian Pass to Mexico Beach...1 to 3 ft.
Florida Keys...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected within
the warning areas in western Cuba through this morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
tropical storm warning area across the Yucatan Peninsula.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
in Florida by late today or Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning today.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas
beginning early today and within the tropical storm warning area
along the Florida Gulf coast and the Florida east coast later today.

Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southeast U.S.
coast within the southern portions of the watch area by early
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Western Cuba: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle,
southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas: 4 to 8 inches from
today into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches possible,
primarily near landfall in northern Florida.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba.

Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia today into
Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting portions of the
southern coast of Cuba and eastern Yucatan. These swells will
spread northward along the eastern Gulf Coast during the next day
or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible later day along the
west central Florida coast. The tornado threat will spread
northward into the Florida Big Bend by tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 290258
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

Idalia is producing intense bursts of convection near the center,
with an overall comma-shaped cloud pattern along with a dry slot
over the western part of the circulation. Upper-level outflow is
restricted over the northwestern quadrant. Radar images from
the Meteorological Service of Cuba show a partial eyewall forming.
Flight-level and dropwindsonde data from NOAA and Air Force aircraft
indicate that Idalia is very near hurricane strength. The maximum
winds are set again to 60 kt for this advisory.

The system has moved a bit slower than earlier today with an
initial motion estimate of just slightly east of due north at
around 7 kt. Idalia should be steered northward along the western
side of a mid-level ridge and then turn north-northeastward due to
a trough to its northwest. This track will take the center across
the northeastern Gulf coast on Wednesday morning, and over
northern Florida and southeastern Georgia thereafter. In 2 to 3
days, a mid-tropospheric trough moving off the eastern U.S. coast
will likely cause the tropical cyclone to turn northeastward to
eastward off the coast of the Carolinas. The official track
forecast for this advisory is essentially the same as the previous
one. This is near the middle of the track guidance, which are
fairly tightly clustered, with the GFS on the left side and the
ECMWF on the right side.

Although Idalia is currently experiencing some moderate
northwesterly vertical wind shear, the dynamical guidance indicates
that the shear will lessen while the system is over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico. This, along with a conducive thermodynamic
atmospheric environment and high oceanic heat content, should cause
Idalia to strengthen rapidly in the 12- to 36-hour time frame. The
official intensity forecast, like the previous one, shows the system
becoming a major hurricane before landfall along the Florida Gulf
coast. This is in general agreement with the regional hurricane
hurricane models, HAFS and HWRF, but above much of the other
intensity guidance.

Idalia is forecast to move into an area that is highly susceptible
to storm surge, and regardless of the cyclone's specific landfall
intensity, there is increasing confidence that a significant storm
surge event will occur.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning
is in effect, including Tampa Bay and the Big Bend region of
Florida. Inundation of 8 to 12 feet above ground level is expected
somewhere between Chassahowitzka and Aucilla River. Residents in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast, with the
potential for destructive winds where the core of Idalia moves
onshore. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of
northern Florida near the track of the center of Idalia.

3. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Idalia is expected across
portions of western Cuba and may produce areas of flash and urban
flooding as well as landslides. Areas of flash and urban flooding,
some of which may be locally significant, are expected across
portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and
southern Georgia Tuesday into Wednesday, spreading into portions of
the eastern Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 22.0N 85.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 23.7N 85.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 26.2N 84.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 29.0N 83.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 31.5N 81.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 31/1200Z 33.2N 78.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 01/0000Z 34.0N 76.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 33.5N 72.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 33.0N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 290257
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
0300 UTC TUE AUG 29 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 85.0W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 130SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 85.0W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 85.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.7N 85.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 45SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 130SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 26.2N 84.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.0N 83.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 31.5N 81.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 150SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 33.2N 78.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 34.0N 76.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 80SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 33.5N 72.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 33.0N 70.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 85.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 29/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 290257
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

...IDALIA LINGERING NEAR WESTERN CUBA...
...COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 85.0W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Florida east coast
and the southeastern Georgia coast from Sebastian Inlet northward
to Altamaha Sound.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa
Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Isle of Youth Cuba
* Dry Tortugas Florida
* Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key
* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
* Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South
Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to the Middle of Longboat Key

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge
* Altamaha Sound northward to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings along the
southeast United States coast will likely be required on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was
located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 85.0 West. Idalia is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northward motion
is expected through tonight, followed by a faster north-northeast
motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Idalia is forecast to move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on
Tuesday, and reach the Gulf coast of Florida within the Hurricane
Warning area on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is predicted during the next day or so.
Idalia could become a hurricane at any time, and is forecast to
become a major hurricane by late Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center. An observation in Cabo De San Antonio reported a
wind gust of 78 mph (126 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...8-12 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...5-8 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-7 ft
Tampa Bay...4-7 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...3-5 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee, SC...2-4 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of St. Mary's River...1-3
ft
Indian Pass to Mexico Beach...1 to 3 ft.
Florida Keys...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected within
the warning areas in western Cuba through Tuesday morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
tropical storm warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
in Florida by late Tuesday or Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning on Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas
beginning early Tuesday and within the tropical storm warning area
along the Florida Gulf coast and the Florida east coast on
Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southeast U.S.
coast within the southern portions of the watch area by early
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Western Cuba: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle,
southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas: 4 to 8 inches from
Tuesday into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches possible,
primarily near landfall in northern Florida.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba.

Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into
Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting portions of the
southern coast of Cuba and eastern Yucatan. These swells will
spread northward along the eastern Gulf Coast during the next day
or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible on Tuesday along the
west central Florida coast. The tornado threat will spread
northward into the Florida Big Bend by Tuesday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 282355
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
700 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

...IDALIA ALMOST A HURRICANE NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DANGEROUS WINDS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 85.1W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa
Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Isle of Youth Cuba
* Dry Tortugas Florida
* Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key
* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South
Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to the Middle of Longboat Key

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge
* Sebastian Inlet Florida northward to South Santee River South
Carolina

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings along the
southeast United States coast will likely be required later tonight
or on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was
located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 85.1 West.
Idalia is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northward
motion is expected through tonight, followed by a faster
north-northeast motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Idalia is forecast to pass near or over western
Cuba during the next few hours, over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on
Tuesday, and reach the Gulf coast of Florida within the Hurricane
Warning area on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is predicted during the next day or so.
Idalia could become a hurricane at any time, and is forecast to
become a major hurricane by late Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center. Casablanca, near Havana Cuba, reported a wind
gust to 51 mph (82 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...8-12 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...5-8 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-7 ft
Tampa Bay...4-7 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...3-5 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee, SC...2-4 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of St. Mary's River...1-3
ft
Indian Pass to Mexico Beach...1 to 3 ft.
Florida Keys...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected within
the warning areas in western Cuba through Tuesday morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
tropical storm warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
in Florida by late Tuesday or Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning on Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas
beginning tonight and within the tropical storm warning area
along the Florida Gulf coast on Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southeast U.S.
coast within the southern portions of the watch area by early
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Portions of the eastern Yucatan: Additional 1 to 2 inches.

Western Cuba: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle,
southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas: 4 to 8 inches from
Tuesday into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches possible,
primarily near landfall in northern Florida.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba.

Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into
Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting portions of the
southern coast of Cuba and eastern Yucatan. These swells will
spread northward along the eastern Gulf Coast during the next day
or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible starting Tuesday along
the west-central Florida coast and the tornado threat will spread
northward into the Florida Big Bend area by Tuesday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 282052
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

The satellite presentation of Idalia has continued to improve this
afternoon. The center of the storm is embedded within an area of
deep convection with cloud tops colder than -75C. Although the
early reconnaissance aircraft and radar data from Cuba
have not yet indicated the presence of an eyewall, the aircraft
data did indicate that the pressure had fallen to around 987 mb on
the final pass through the center earlier this afternoon.
Believable SFMR winds of 60 kt were reported to the east of the
center, and Idalia's intensity was raised to that value on the
1800 UTC intermediate advisory and it remains at that value for
this advisory. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
are scheduled to be in the storm environment again this evening and
should provide additional information on the structure and
intensity of the tropical cyclone. Another NOAA G-IV synoptic
surveillance mission is underway and that data should be
assimilated into the dynamical model runs this evening.

Idalia is moving northward or 360/7 kt. The storm should continue
to be steered northward between a mid-level trough over the central
Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near the Greater Antilles through
tonight. On Tuesday, a faster north-northeastward motion should
begin as a trough moves into the east-central United States. This
motion should bring the center of Idalia to the Gulf coast of
Florida on Wednesday. The dynamical models continue to have some
spread after 36 hours, with the GFS and HAFS guidance along the
western side of the envelope and the ECMWF along the eastern side.
The consensus aids were slightly west of the previous cycle, and
the NHC forecast has been nudged in that direction. The NHC track
forecast is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus
model. It is still worth stressing that only a small deviation in
the track could cause a significant change in Idalia's landfall
location in Florida due to the paralleling track to the west coast
of the state. When Idalia nears the Atlantic coast of the
southeastern United States the guidance suggests the cyclone will
turn more eastward as the aforementioned trough passes to the north
of the storm.

The upper-level wind pattern is forecast to become more conducive
for significant strengthening when Idalia moves over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Tuesday. At the same time,
the storm is forecast to move over an area of high ocean heat
content. These conditions are likely to allow for a period of
rapid strengthening which is explicitly shown in the official
forecast through 36 hours. Idalia is likely to become a hurricane
this evening, and is predicted to become major hurricane over the
eastern Gulf within 36 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is just a
little above the latest HFIP corrected consensus guidance.

Idalia is forecast to move into an area very susceptible to storm
surge, and regardless of the cyclone's landfall intensity, there is
increasing confidence of a significant storm surge event.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning
is in effect, including Tampa Bay and the Big Bend region of
Florida. Inundation of 8 to 12 feet above ground level is expected
somewhere between Chassahowitzka and Aucilla River. Residents in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast, with the
potential for destructive winds where the core of Idalia moves
onshore. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of
northern Florida near the track of the center of Idalia.

3. Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into
Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.

4. Hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of far western
Cuba tonight. Heavy rainfall is also expected across portions
of western Cuba and may produce areas of flash and urban
flooding as well as landslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 21.4N 85.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 22.7N 85.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 24.9N 85.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 27.6N 84.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 30.4N 82.9W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
60H 31/0600Z 32.7N 80.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/1800Z 34.0N 76.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 01/1800Z 34.1N 71.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 34.0N 69.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 282052
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

...IDALIA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES WESTERN
CUBA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DANGEROUS WINDS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 85.1W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended westward to Indian Pass
Florida. The Hurricane Warning has also been extended westward to
Indian Pass. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from west of
Indian Pass westward to Mexico Beach.

The Storm Surge Watch along the southeast coast of the United
States has been extended northward to South Santee River.

The Tropical Storm Watch along the southeast coast of the United
States has been extended northward to South Santee River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa
Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Isle of Youth Cuba
* Dry Tortugas Florida
* Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key
* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South
Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to the Middle of Longboat Key

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge
* Sebastian Inlet Florida northward to South Santee River South
Carolina

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings along the
southeast United States coast will likely be required later tonight
or on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was
located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 85.1 West. Idalia is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northward motion is
expected through tonight, followed by a faster north-northeast
motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Idalia is forecast to pass near or over western Cuba tonight,
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and reach the Gulf
coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is predicted during the next day or so.
Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane this evening or tonight,
and become a major hurricane by late Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...8-12 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...5-8 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-7 ft
Tampa Bay...4-7 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...3-5 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee, SC...2-4 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of St. Mary's River...1-3
ft
Indian Pass to Mexico Beach...1 to 3 ft.
Florida Keys...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected within
the warning areas in western Cuba through Tuesday morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
tropical storm warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
in Florida by late Tuesday or Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning on Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas
beginning tonight and within the tropical storm warning area
along the Florida Gulf coast on Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southeast U.S.
coast within the southern portions of the watch area by early
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Portions of the eastern Yucatan: Additional 1 to 2 inches.

Western Cuba: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle,
southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas: 4 to 8 inches from
Tuesday into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches possible,
primarily near landfall in northern Florida.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba.

Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into
Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting portions of the
southern coast of Cuba and eastern Yucatan. These swells will
spread northward along the eastern Gulf Coast during the next day
or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible starting Tuesday along
the west central Florida coast and the tornado threat will spread
northward into the Florida Big Bend area by Tuesday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 282051
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
2100 UTC MON AUG 28 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 85.1W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 130SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 85.1W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 85.2W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.7N 85.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 45SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 24.9N 85.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 27.6N 84.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 30.4N 82.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 32.7N 80.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 34.0N 76.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 34.1N 71.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 34.0N 69.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 85.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 29/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 281753
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
100 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

...IDALIA STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DANGEROUS WINDS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 85.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood northward to the Ochlockonee River, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Middle of Longboat Key northward to the Ochlockonee River,
including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Isle of Youth Cuba
* Dry Tortugas Florida
* Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key
* West of the Ochlockonee River westward to Indian Pass

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass Florida
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound Georgia

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to the Middle of Longboat Key
* West of the Ochlockonee River westward to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South of the Middle of Longboat Key to Chokoloskee Florida
* West of the Ochlockonee River westward to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge
* Sebastian Inlet Florida northward to Altamaha Sound Georgia

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was
located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 85.1 West. Idalia is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northward motion is
expected through tonight, followed by a faster north-northeast
motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Idalia is forecast to pass near or over western Cuba tonight,
over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday, and
reach the Gulf coast of Florida on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane later
today and a dangerous major hurricane over the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico by early Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220
km) from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data from an Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...4-7 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-7 ft
Tampa Bay...4-7 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...2-4 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound, GA...2-4 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of the St. Mary's
River...1-3 ft
Florida Keys...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in western Cuba later today. Tropical storm force
winds are already reaching portions of the southern coast of Cuba.

Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
tropical storm warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula and the Isle
of Youth in Cuba through tonight.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
in Florida by late Tuesday or Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning on Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas
beginning tonight and within the tropical storm warning area
along the Florida Gulf coast on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Portions of the eastern Yucatan: Additional 1 to 2 inches.

Western Cuba: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle,
southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas: 4 to 8 inches from
Tuesday into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches possible,
primarily near landfall in northern Florida.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba.

Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into
Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting portions of the
southern coast of Cuba and eastern Yucatan. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADO: A few tornadoes will be possible starting Tuesday along the
west central Florida coast and the tornado threat will spread
northward into the Florida Big Bend area by Tuesday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 281537 CCA
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number 8...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

Corrected a typo.

The satellite presentation of the storm has improved this morning
with the center more deeply embedded within the deep convection and
colder cloud tops. However, recent reconnaissance aircraft data
from both the U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA indicate that the
improved satellite presentation has not yet resulted in an increase
in wind speed. The Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft has measured
peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 68 kt, and a minimum pressure
around 990 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains
55 kt this advisory. The Air Force aircraft will be in the storm
environment through early afternoon and that data should continue to
provide information Idalia's structure and intensity.

Recent satellite and aircraft fixes show that Idalia is moving
northward or 360/8 kt. A mid-level trough over the central Gulf of
Mexico and a ridge near the Greater Antilles should cause Idalia to
move northward at a faster forward speed during the next 12-24
hours. After that time, an even faster north-northeast motion is
expected an another mid-level trough moves across the central and
eastern portions of the United States. The latest NHC track
forecast is again quite similar to the previous forecast. Although
the track forecast has been quite consistent, there is still some
spread in the guidance by 48 hours, and it cannot be emphasized
enough that only a small deviation in the track could cause a
significant change in Idalia's landfall location in Florida due to
the paralleling track to the west coast of the state.

Although there is still some moderate northwesterly shear over the
storm, intensification seems likely during the next 12-18 hours, and
Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane during that time. By
Tuesday, the environment over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is expected
to become more conducive for strengthening. Steady to rapid
intensification is predicted beginning Tuesday while Idalia
traverses the warm waters of the eastern Gulf and the upper-level
environment becomes more favorable. The NHC intensity forecast
again calls for Idalia to reach major hurricane strength before
landfall along the Gulf coast of Florida.

This forecast has necessitated the issuance of Storm Surge and
Hurricane Warnings for portions of the west coast of Florida and
Storm Surge and Tropical Storm Watches for portions of the Atlantic
coasts of Florida and Georgia.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning
is in effect, including Tampa Bay and the Big Bend region of
Florida. Inundation of 7 to 11 feet above ground level is expected
somewhere between Chassahowitzka and Aucilla River. Residents in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast, with the
potential for destructive winds where the core of Idalia moves
onshore. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of
northern Florida near the track of the center of Idalia.

3. Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into
Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.

4. Hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of far western
Cuba later today. Heavy rainfall is also expected across portions
of western Cuba and may produce areas of flash and urban
flooding as well as landslides across western Cuba.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 20.8N 85.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 22.0N 85.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 23.9N 85.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 26.4N 84.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 29.2N 83.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 31/0000Z 31.9N 81.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/1200Z 33.6N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 01/1200Z 34.6N 71.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 34.5N 67.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 281502 CCA
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Advisory Number 8...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

Corrected Hurricane Warning end point in the change section of the
watches and warnings

...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DANGEROUS WINDS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 85.2W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Englewood northward to
the Ochlockonee River, including Tampa Bay.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from the Middle of Longboat Key
northward to the Ochlockonee River, including Tampa Bay.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Chokoloskee northward
to the Middle of Longboat Key, and from west of the Lockheed
River westward to Indian Pass.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Mouth of the St. Mary's
River to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Atlantic coast of
Florida and Georgia from Sebastian Inlet, Florida northward to
Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood northward to the Ochlockonee River, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Middle of Longboat Key northward to the Ochlockonee River,
including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Isle of Youth Cuba
* Dry Tortugas Florida
* Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key
* West of the Ochlockonee River westward to Indian Pass

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass Florida
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound Georgia

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to the Middle of Longboat Key
* West of the Ochlockonee River westward to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South of the Middle of Longboat Key to Chokoloskee Florida
* West of the Ochlockonee River westward to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge
* Sebastian Inlet Florida northward to Altamaha Sound Georgia

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.A Hurricane Warning
means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the
warning area, in this case within the next 12-24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was
located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 85.2 West. Idalia is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northward motion
is expected through tonight, followed by a faster north-northeast
motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Idalia is forecast to pass near or over western Cuba tonight,
over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday, and
reach the Gulf coast of Florida on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane later today and a
dangerous major hurricane over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by
early Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data from an Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...4-7 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-7 ft
Tampa Bay...4-7 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...2-4 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound, GA...2-4 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of the St. Mary's
River...1-3 ft
Florida Keys...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in western Cuba later today. Winds are expected to
first reach tropical storm strength by this morning, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
tropical storm warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula and the Isle
of Youth in Cuba through today

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
in Florida by late Tuesday or Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning on Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas
beginning late today and within the tropical storm warning area
along the Florida Gulf coast on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Portions of the eastern Yucatan: Additional 1 to 2 inches.

Western Cuba: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle,
southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas: 4 to 8 inches from
Tuesday into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches possible,
primarily near landfall in northern Florida.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba.

Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into
Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting portions of the
southern coast of Cuba and eastern Yucatan. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADO: A few tornadoes will be possible starting Tuesday along the
west central Florida coast and the tornado threat will spread
northward into the Florida Big Bend area by Tuesday night.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 281500
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

The satellite presentation of the storm has improved this morning
with the center more deeply embedded within the deep convection and
colder cloud tops. However, recent reconnaissance aircraft data
from both the U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA indicate that the
improved satellite presentation has not yet resulted in an
increase in wind speed. The Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft
has measured peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 68 kt, and a minimum
pressure around 990 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity
remains 55 kt this advisory. The Air Force aircraft will be in the
storm environment through early afternoon and that data should
continue to provide information Idalia's structure and intensity.

Recent satellite and aircraft fixes show that Idalia is moving
northward or 360/8 kt. A mid-level trough over the central
Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near the Greater Antilles should cause
Idalia to move northward at a faster forward speed during the next
12-24 hours. After that time, an even faster north-northeast
motion is expected an another mid-level trough moves across the
central and eastern portions of the United States. The latest NHC
track forecast is again quite similar to the previous forecast.
Although the track forecast has been quite consistent, there is
still some spread in the guidance by 48 hours, and it cannot be
emphasized enough that only a small deviation in the track could
cause a significant change in Idalia's landfall location in Florida
due to the paralleling track to the west coast of the state.

Although there is still some moderate northwesterly over the storm,
intensification seems likely during the next 12-18 hours, and
Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane during that time. By
Tuesday, the environment over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is
expected to become more conducive for strengthening. Steady to
rapid intensification is predicted beginning Tuesday while Idalia
traverses the warm waters of the eastern Gulf and the upper-level
environment becomes more favorable. The NHC intensity forecast
again calls for Idalia to reach major hurricane strength before
landfall along the Gulf coast of Florida.

This forecast has necessitated the issuance of Storm Surge and
Hurricane Warnings for portions of the west coast of Florida and
Storm Surge and Tropical Storm Watches for portions of the Atlantic
coasts of Florida and Georgia.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning
is in effect, including Tampa Bay and the Big Bend region of
Florida. Inundation of 7 to 11 feet above ground level is expected
somewhere between Chassahowitzka and Aucilla River. Residents in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast, with the
potential for destructive winds where the core of Idalia moves
onshore. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of
northern Florida near the track of the center of Idalia.

3. Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into
Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.

4. Hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of far western
Cuba later today. Heavy rainfall is also expected across portions
of western Cuba and may produce areas of flash and urban
flooding as well as landslides across western Cuba.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 20.8N 85.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 22.0N 85.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 23.9N 85.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 26.4N 84.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 29.2N 83.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 31/0000Z 31.9N 81.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/1200Z 33.6N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 01/1200Z 34.6N 71.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 34.5N 67.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 281457
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DANGEROUS WINDS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 85.2W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Englewood northward to
the Ochlockonee River, including Tampa Bay.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from the Middle of Longboat Key
northward to the Holocene River, including Tampa Bay.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Chokoloskee northward
to the Middle of Longboat Key, and from west of the Lockheed
River westward to Indian Pass.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Mouth of the St. Mary's
River to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Atlantic coast of
Florida and Georgia from Sebastian Inlet, Florida northward to
Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood northward to the Ochlockonee River, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Middle of Longboat Key northward to the Ochlockonee River,
including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Isle of Youth Cuba
* Dry Tortugas Florida
* Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key
* West of the Ochlockonee River westward to Indian Pass

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass Florida
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound Georgia

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to the Middle of Longboat Key
* West of the Ochlockonee River westward to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South of the Middle of Longboat Key to Chokoloskee Florida
* West of the Ochlockonee River westward to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge
* Sebastian Inlet Florida northward to Altamaha Sound Georgia

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.A Hurricane Warning
means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the
warning area, in this case within the next 12-24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was
located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 85.2 West. Idalia is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northward motion
is expected through tonight, followed by a faster north-northeast
motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Idalia is forecast to pass near or over western Cuba tonight,
over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday, and
reach the Gulf coast of Florida on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane later today and a
dangerous major hurricane over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by
early Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data from an Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...4-7 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-7 ft
Tampa Bay...4-7 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...2-4 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound, GA...2-4 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of the St. Mary's
River...1-3 ft
Florida Keys...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in western Cuba later today. Winds are expected to
first reach tropical storm strength by this morning, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
tropical storm warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula and the Isle
of Youth in Cuba through today

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
in Florida by late Tuesday or Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning on Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas
beginning late today and within the tropical storm warning area
along the Florida Gulf coast on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Portions of the eastern Yucatan: Additional 1 to 2 inches.

Western Cuba: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle,
southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas: 4 to 8 inches from
Tuesday into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches possible,
primarily near landfall in northern Florida.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba.

Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into
Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting portions of the
southern coast of Cuba and eastern Yucatan. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADO: A few tornadoes will be possible starting Tuesday along the
west central Florida coast and the tornado threat will spread
northward into the Florida Big Bend area by Tuesday night.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 281456
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
1500 UTC MON AUG 28 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 85.2W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 85.2W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 85.2W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.0N 85.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 40SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.9N 85.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 5NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 10NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 26.4N 84.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.2N 83.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 30SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 150SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 31.9N 81.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 160SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 33.6N 78.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 80SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 34.6N 71.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 34.5N 67.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 85.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 28/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 281149
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
700 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

...IDALIA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE WHEN IT NEARS WESTERN
CUBA LATER TODAY...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DANGEROUS WINDS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 85.2W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Isle of Youth Cuba
* Dry Tortugas Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Englewood to Chokoloskee Florida
* Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
12-24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was
located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 85.2 West. Idalia is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northward motion
is expected through tonight, followed by a faster north-northeast
motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Idalia is forecast to pass near or over western Cuba tonight,
over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday, and
reach the Gulf coast of Florida on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane later today and a
dangerous major hurricane over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by
early Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data from an Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...4-7 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-7 ft
Tampa Bay...4-7 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...2-4 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Florida Keys...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in western Cuba later today. Winds are expected to
first reach tropical storm strength by this morning, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
tropical storm warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula and the Isle
of Youth in Cuba through today

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by
late Tuesday or Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible
by Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dry Tortugas beginning
late today and within the tropical storm watch area along the
Florida Gulf coast on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Portions of the eastern Yucatan: Additional 1 to 2 inches.

Western Cuba: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle,
southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas: 4 to 8 inches from
Tuesday into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches possible,
primarily near landfall in northern Florida.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba.

Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into
Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting portions of the
southern coast of Cuba and eastern Yucatan. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 280859
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

Idalia has intensified overnight. Data from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed believable surface winds of 50-55
kt and a central pressure falling to around 989 mb. The wind data
is also confirmed by NOAA buoy 42056, located just southeast of
the center, which has reported maximum 1-minute adjusted sustained
winds above 50 kt within the past hour or two. These data support
raising the initial wind speed to 55 kt.

It seems like Idalia is finally on the move, with aircraft fixes
indicating a northward motion of about 6 kt. This motion should
continue through Tuesday as Idalia moves between a mid-level trough
over the central Gulf of Mexico and a strengthening ridge over the
Greater Antilles. The storm is likely to move faster to the
north-northeast and northeast by early Wednesday due to a deeper
trough that is expected to swing across the mid-western United
States. The new NHC track forecast is quite close to the last one
with little significant changes to the track guidance. It should be
emphasized that only a small deviation in the track could cause a
big change in Idalia's landfall location in Florida due to the
paralleling track to the west coast of the state.

The center of Idalia is on the northern edge of the deep convective
mass, a refection of moderate northwesterly shear, and the last
aircraft pass showed a vortex tilted southward with height. This
shear and structure should persist for about the next 24 hours,
helping to keep the intensity of the storm from increasing too
quickly despite the extremely warm waters it will be traversing.
The NHC short-term forecast will continue to indicate Idalia as a
hurricane near western Cuba, similar to the guidance.

Over the Gulf of Mexico, the environment is forecast to become
conducive for significant strengthening of Idalia due to a new
trough dropping south over the western Gulf of Mexico as a
upper-level ridge builds near the cyclone. Additionally, Idalia
will be moving over waters near 31C, and some of the guidance is
even indicating favorable jet dynamics on Wednesday with Idalia in
the right-rear quadrant of the jet over the southeastern United
States. The bottom line is that rapid intensification is becoming
increasingly likely before landfall, and the NHC forecast now
explicitly indicates it between 24-48 h in the forecast. This is
consistent with almost all of the regional hurricane models and the
SHIPS rapid intensification indices, which are 5-10 times the
climatological mean. The new prediction shows a 100-kt hurricane
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico at 48 hours, but Idalia should keep
strengthening up to landfall along the Gulf coast of Florida.
Interests within the storm surge and hurricane watch areas are urged
to prepare for possible significant impacts and monitor future
updates to the forecast for this increasingly dangerous situation.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Idalia is now forecast to become a major hurricane before it
reaches the Gulf coast of Florida. The risk continues to increase
for life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force
winds along portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida
Panhandle beginning as early as late Tuesday. Storm surge and
hurricane watches are in effect for portions of the west coast of
Florida and the coast of the Florida Panhandle, and residents in
these areas should monitor updates to the forecast and follow any
advice given by local officials.

2. Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into
Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.

3. Hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of far
western Cuba later today. Heavy rainfall is also expected across
portions of western Cuba and may produce areas of flash and urban
flooding as well as landslides across western Cuba.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 20.1N 85.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 21.1N 85.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 22.6N 85.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 24.8N 84.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 27.7N 84.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 30/1800Z 30.7N 82.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/0600Z 32.8N 79.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 01/0600Z 34.5N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 34.5N 67.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 280857
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

...IDALIA INTENSIFYING AS IT APPROACHES CUBA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DANGEROUS WINDS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 85.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Isle of Youth Cuba
* Dry Tortugas Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Englewood to Chokoloskee Florida
* Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
12-24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was
located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 85.2 West. Idalia is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), with a continued
northward motion bringing the center of Idalia near or over
western Cuba tonight and over the extreme southeastern Gulf of
Mexico by early Tuesday. On the forecast track, Idalia is forecast
to increase in forward speed and turn north-northeastward over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and reach the Gulf coast of
Florida on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane later
today and a dangerous major hurricane over northeastern Gulf of
Mexico by early Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...4-7 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-7 ft
Tampa Bay...4-7 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...2-4 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Florida Keys...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in western Cuba later today. Winds are expected to
first reach tropical storm strength by this morning, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
tropical storm warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula and the Isle
of Youth in Cuba through today

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by
late Tuesday or Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible
by Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dry Tortugas beginning
late today and within the tropical storm watch area along the
Florida Gulf coast on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Portions of the eastern Yucatan: Additional 1 to 2 inches.

Western Cuba: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle,
southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas: 4 to 8 inches from
Tuesday into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches possible,
primarily near landfall in northern Florida.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba.

Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into
Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting portions of the
southern coast of Cuba and eastern Yucatan. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 280856
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
0900 UTC MON AUG 28 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 85.2W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 85.2W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 85.2W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.1N 85.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 40SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.6N 85.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 10NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 24.8N 84.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 27.7N 84.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 30SE 15SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 150SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 30.7N 82.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 160SE 70SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 32.8N 79.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 160SE 80SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 34.5N 72.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 34.5N 67.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 85.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 28/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 280548
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
100 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REACHES IDALIA...
...IDALIA FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 85.3W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Isle of Youth Cuba
* Dry Tortugas Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Englewood to Chokoloskee Florida
* Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required on Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 19.7 North, longitude 85.3 West. Idalia has been moving
erratically and is nearly stationary. A motion toward the
north-northeast and north is expected to begin later today,
bringing the center of Idalia over the extreme southeastern Gulf of
Mexico by tonight. Idalia will then continue on a northward or
north-northeastward path over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday
and reach the Gulf coast of Florida on Wednesday.

Aircraft data indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near
60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and
Idalia is expected to become a hurricane later today. Idalia is
likely to be near or at major hurricane intensity when it reaches
the Gulf coast of Florida.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 42056 recently reported a sustained wind
of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (91 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is
990 mb (29.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...4-7 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-7 ft
Tampa Bay...4-7 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...2-4 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Florida Keys...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in western Cuba by late today. Winds are expected to
first reach tropical storm strength by this morning, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
tropical storm warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula and the Isle
of Youth in Cuba through today

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by
late Tuesday or Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible
by Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dry Tortugas beginning
late today and within the tropical storm watch area along the
Florida Gulf coast on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Portions of the eastern Yucatan: 1 to 3 inches, with isolated higher
totals of 5 inches.

Western Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and
southern Georgia: From Tuesday into Wednesday, 3 to 6 inches, with
isolated higher totals of 10 inches.

Heavy rainfall is also expected across portions of the Carolinas by
Wednesday into Thursday.

Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Idalia is expected across
portions of the eastern Yucatan and western Cuba and may produce
areas of flash and urban flooding as well as landslides across
western Cuba. Scattered flash and urban flooding is expected across
portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and
southern Georgia late Tuesday night through Wednesday. Heavy
rainfall may lead to flash flooding across portions of the Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 280303 CCA
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Advisory Number 6...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

Corrected storm surge values for Cuba

...IDALIA STRENGTHENING QUICKLY...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL
RIO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 85.3W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has changed the Tropical Storm Warning for
Pinar del Rio to a Hurricane Warning. The Tropical Storm Watch for
the Isle of Youth has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Tropical Storm Watch for the Dry Tortugas has been upgraded to
a Tropical Storm Warning. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued
for the Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile
Bridge.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Isle of Youth Cuba
* Dry Tortugas Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Englewood to Chokoloskee Florida
* Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required on Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was
located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 85.3 West. Idalia has
been moving erratically and is nearly stationary. A motion toward
the north-northeast and north is expected to begin on Monday,
bringing the center of Idalia over the extreme southeastern Gulf of
Mexico by Monday night. Idalia will then continue on a northward
or north-northeastward path over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on
Tuesday and reach the Gulf coast of Florida on Wednesday.

Buoy observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional
strengthening is forecast, and Idalia is expected to become a
hurricane on Monday. Idalia is likely to be near or at major
hurricane intensity when it reaches the Gulf coast of Florida.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 42056 recently reported a sustained
wind of 52 mph (83 km/h) and a gust to 60 mph (97 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...4-7 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-7 ft
Tampa Bay...4-7 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...2-4 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Florida Keys...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in western Cuba by late Monday. Winds are expected to
first reach tropical storm strength by Monday morning, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
tropical storm warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula and the Isle
of Youth in Cuba through Monday.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by
late Tuesday or Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible
by Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dry Tortugas beginning
late Monday and within the tropical storm watch area along the
Florida Gulf coast on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Portions of the eastern Yucatan: 1 to 3 inches, with isolated higher
totals of 5 inches.

Western Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and
southern Georgia: From Tuesday into Wednesday, 3 to 6 inches, with
isolated higher totals of 10 inches.

Heavy rainfall is also expected across portions of the Carolinas by
Wednesday into Thursday.

Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Idalia is expected across
portions of the eastern Yucatan and western Cuba and may produce
areas of flash and urban flooding as well as landslides across
western Cuba. Scattered flash and urban flooding is expected across
portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and
southern Georgia late Tuesday night through Wednesday. Heavy
rainfall may lead to flash flooding across portions of the Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 280257
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

Idalia's center has become embedded beneath a large burst of deep
convection, with overshooting cloud-top temperatures as cold as -82
degrees Celsius. NOAA buoy 42056, located just to the east of the
center, has reported maximum 1-minute sustained winds as high as 45
kt within the past hour or two. The anemometer height of the buoy
is 4 meters, so converting the wind to a standard 10-meter height
indicates that Idalia's intensity is now up to at least 50 kt, which
is the initial intensity for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Idalia in a few
hours.

The center has been moving erratically since earlier today, and may
have even sagged southward, pulled toward the recently developed
deep convection. A northward motion is expected to begin on Monday
and continue through Tuesday as Idalia moves between a mid-level
trough over the central Gulf of Mexico and strengthening ridging
over the Greater Antilles. After 48 hours, a gradual turn toward
the northeast and then east is anticipated due to a deeper trough
that is expected to swing across the Great Lakes. No significant
changes were required for the updated NHC track forecast compared
to the previous prediction. The spread among the track models
remains relatively low, and the official track continues to lie
closest to the ECMWF and HCCA consensus aid.

Idalia is sitting over very warm waters of about 30 degrees
Celsius, and when it moves northward, it will be over the even
deeper warm waters of the Loop Current in 24-36 hours. Although
the trough over the Gulf could impart some shear over the system,
this is likely to be offset by upper-level diffluence. Idalia has
already strengthened more than anticipated, and the environment
looks ripe for additional intensification, possibly rapid. The NHC
intensity forecast has been increased and lies at the upper bound of
the guidance. The new prediction now shows a 95-kt hurricane over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico at 48 hours, but it should be stressed
that additional strengthening to major hurricane strength is
becoming increasingly likely before Idalia reaches the Gulf coast
of Florida. Interests within the storm surge and hurricane watch
areas are urged to prepare for possible significant impacts and
monitor future updates to the forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane by the time it reaches
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and it could be near or at major
hurricane strength when it reaches the Gulf coast of Florida. The
risk continues to increase for a life-threatening storm surge and
hurricane-force winds along portions of the west coast of Florida
and the Florida Panhandle beginning as early as Tuesday. Storm
surge and hurricane watches are in effect for portions of the
west coast of Florida and the coast of the Florida Panhandle, and
residents in these areas should monitor updates to the forecast and
follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Scattered flash and urban flooding is expected across portions of
the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern
Georgia late Tuesday night through Wednesday. Heavy rainfall may
lead to flash flooding across portions of the Carolinas Wednesday
into Thursday.

3. Hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of far
western Cuba late Monday. Heavy rainfall is expected across
portions of the eastern Yucatan and western Cuba and may produce
areas of flash and urban flooding as well as landslides across
western Cuba.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 19.8N 85.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 20.7N 85.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 22.2N 85.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 24.2N 84.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 26.8N 84.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 30/1200Z 29.6N 82.8W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/0000Z 32.0N 80.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 01/0000Z 34.3N 73.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 34.4N 67.8W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 280257
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...IDALIA STRENGTHENING QUICKLY...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL
RIO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 85.3W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has changed the Tropical Storm Warning for
Pinar del Rio to a Hurricane Warning. The Tropical Storm Watch for
the Isle of Youth has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Tropical Storm Watch for the Dry Tortugas has been upgraded to
a Tropical Storm Warning. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued
for the Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile
Bridge.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Isle of Youth Cuba
* Dry Tortugas Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Englewood to Chokoloskee Florida
* Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required on Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was
located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 85.3 West. Idalia has
been moving erratically and is nearly stationary. A motion toward
the north-northeast and north is expected to begin on Monday,
bringing the center of Idalia over the extreme southeastern Gulf of
Mexico by Monday night. Idalia will then continue on a northward
or north-northeastward path over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on
Tuesday and reach the Gulf coast of Florida on Wednesday.

Buoy observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional
strengthening is forecast, and Idalia is expected to become a
hurricane on Monday. Idalia is likely to be near or at major
hurricane intensity when it reaches the Gulf coast of Florida.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 42056 recently reported a sustained
wind of 52 mph (83 km/h) and a gust to 60 mph (97 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...4-7 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-7 ft
Tampa Bay...4-7 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...2-4 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Florida Keys...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in western Cuba by late Monday. Winds are expected to
first reach tropical storm strength by Monday morning, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
tropical storm warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula and the Isle
of Youth in Cuba through Monday.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by
late Tuesday or Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible
by Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dry Tortugas beginning
late Monday and within the tropical storm watch area along the
Florida Gulf coast on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Portions of the eastern Yucatan: 1 to 3 inches, with isolated higher
totals of 5 inches.

Western Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and
southern Georgia: From Tuesday into Wednesday, 3 to 6 inches, with
isolated higher totals of 10 inches.

Heavy rainfall is also expected across portions of the Carolinas by
Wednesday into Thursday.

Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Idalia is expected across
portions of the eastern Yucatan and western Cuba and may produce
areas of flash and urban flooding as well as landslides across
western Cuba. Scattered flash and urban flooding is expected across
portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and
southern Georgia late Tuesday night through Wednesday. Heavy
rainfall may lead to flash flooding across portions of the Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 280254
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
0300 UTC MON AUG 28 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 85.3W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 20SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 85.3W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 85.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.7N 85.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 40SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.2N 85.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 24.2N 84.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 26.8N 84.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.6N 82.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 150SE 80SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 32.0N 80.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 160SE 90SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 34.3N 73.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 34.4N 67.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 85.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 28/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 272353
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
700 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...IDALIA A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 85.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Isle of Youth Cuba
* South of Englewood to Chokoloskee Florida
* Dry Tortugas Florida

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required on Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was
located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 85.4 West. Idalia is
moving toward the east-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow,
possibly erratic, motion is expected overnight. A generally
northward to north-northeastward motion at an increasing forward
speed is expected on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center will move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday and
Tuesday, and approach the northeastern Gulf coast late Tuesday.

Buoy observations indicate that Idalia's maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast, and Idalia is expected to
become a hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early
Tuesday. Additional strengthening is likely while Idalia approaches
the northeastern Gulf coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 42056 over the far northwestern
Caribbean Sea recently reported a sustained wind of 42 mph (68
km/h) and a wind gust to 49 mph (79 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-8 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...4-7 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...3-5 ft
Tampa Bay...3-5 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...2-4 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Florida Keys...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba through
Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area on the Isle of Youth on Monday.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by
late Tuesday or Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible
by Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dry Tortugas beginning
late Monday and within the tropical storm watch area along the
Florida Gulf coast on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated higher totals of 6 inches.

Western Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and
southern Georgia: From Tuesday into Wednesday, 3 to 6 inches, with
isolated higher totals of 10 inches.

Heavy rainfall is also likely to spread into portions of the
Carolinas by Wednesday into Thursday.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba. Scattered flash and urban flooding can also
be expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the
Florida Panhandle and portions of the Southeast U.S. by Tuesday
into Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 272059
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

Idalia's cloud pattern is gradually becoming a little better
organized, with a curved convective band forming over the southern
semicircle of the circulation. Upper-level outflow is currently
restricted over the northern portion of the system, however.
The advisory intensity is held at 35 kt based on a subjective
Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Another aircraft reconnaissance mission
into the storm is scheduled for tonight.

The tropical cyclone continues to move rather slowly, and the
initial motion estimate is 040/3 kt. Idalia should remain in a weak
steering pattern through tonight so slow and possibly erratic
motion is likely for the next 12 hours. On Monday, a mid-level
ridge begins to build to the northeast of the tropical cyclone.
This should result in a slightly east of northward motion during
the next day or two. When the system moves into the northeast Gulf
of Mexico, a mid-level trough developing over the eastern United
states will likely cause Idalia to turn northeastward with an
increase in forward speed. The new official forecast is again
shifted slightly eastward, and is somewhat faster than the previous
one. This is a blend of the latest ECMWF and GFS solutions and is
also between the simple and corrected dynamical consensus tracks.

The intensity forecast is somewhat challenging. Idalia will be
traversing eastern Gulf of Mexico waters of high oceanic heat
content, and the environmental air mass should remain fairly moist.
The flow to the east of an upper-level trough could impart some
vertical wind shear over the system, but this shear could also be
compensated by the conducive effect of upper-level diffluence.
There is considerable spread in the model intensity guidance,
ranging from minimal to major hurricane status before landfall on
the northeast Gulf coast. The official intensity forecast is a
little higher than the previous one, and remains near the higher
end of the guidance. Given the uncertainties, users should monitor
future NHC forecasts for possible changes in the predicted strength
of Idalia, and prepare for possible significant impacts within the
hurricane and storm surge watch areas.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, and there is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm
surge and hurricane-force winds along portions of the west coast of
Florida and the Florida Panhandle beginning as early as Tuesday.
Although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude
of these impacts, residents in these areas should monitor updates to
the forecast and follow any advice given by local officials. Storm
surge and hurricane watches have been issued for portions of the
west coast of Florida and the coast of the Florida Panhandle, and
residents in these areas should monitor updates to the forecast and
follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Scattered flash and urban flooding can be expected across
portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle and
portions of the Southeast U.S. by Tuesday into Thursday. Flooding
from heavy rainfall is likely over portions of the southeast U.S. by
mid to late week.

3. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Idalia is expected across
portions of the eastern Yucatan and western Cuba and may produce
areas of flash and urban flooding as well as landslides across
western Cuba.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula and extreme western Cuba with tropical storm
conditions possible on the Isle of Youth.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 20.1N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 20.5N 85.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 21.7N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 23.4N 84.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 25.6N 84.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 28.7N 83.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 31.3N 81.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/1800Z 34.5N 76.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 01/1800Z 35.0N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 272049
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
2100 UTC SUN AUG 27 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 85.5W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 85.5W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 85.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 20.5N 85.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.7N 85.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 23.4N 84.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 25.6N 84.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 28.7N 83.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 150SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 31.3N 81.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 34.5N 76.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 35.0N 71.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 85.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 28/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 272050
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 85.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida
from Chokoloskee to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida
from Englewood to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Gulf coast of
Florida south of Englewood to Chokoloskee, and for the Dry Tortugas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Isle of Youth Cuba
* South of Englewood to Chokoloskee Florida
* Dry Tortugas Florida

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required on Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was
located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 85.5 West. Idalia is
moving toward the northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow, possibly
erratic, motion is expected overnight. A generally northward to
north-northeastward motion at an increasing forward speed is
expected on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center
will move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday,
and approach the northeast Gulf coast late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and Idalia is expected to become a
hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday.
Additional strengthening is likely while Idalia approaches the
northeastern Gulf coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-8 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...4-7 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...3-5 ft
Tampa Bay...3-5 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...2-4 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Florida Keys...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba through
Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area on the Isle of Youth on Monday.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by
late Tuesday or Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible
by Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dry Tortugas beginning
late Monday and within the tropical storm watch area along the
Florida Gulf coast on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated higher totals of 6 inches.

Western Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and
southern Georgia: From Tuesday into Wednesday, 3 to 6 inches, with
isolated higher totals of 10 inches.

Heavy rainfall is also likely to spread into portions of the
Carolinas by Wednesday into Thursday.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba. Scattered flash and urban flooding can also
be expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the
Florida Panhandle and portions of the Southeast U.S. by Tuesday
into Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 271745
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
100 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...IDALIA BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 85.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...135 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Isle of Youth Cuba

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in Florida should monitor the progress of this system.
Storm surge and hurricane watches for portions of the Florida west
coast will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was
located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 85.8 West. Idalia is
moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h), and it is likely to
meander near the Yucatan Channel through tonight. A faster motion
toward the north is expected on Monday, bringing the system over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Idalia is expected to
become a hurricane by Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Portions of the eastern Yucatan: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated higher
totals of 6 inches.

Western Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and
southern Georgia: From Tuesday into Wednesday, 3 to 6 inches, with
isolated higher totals of 10 inches.

Heavy rainfall is also likely to spread into portions of the
Carolinas by Wednesday into Thursday.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba. Scattered flash and urban flooding can also be
expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida
Panhandle and portions of the Southeast U.S. by Tuesday into
Thursday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula today and western Cuba
later today or Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area on the Isle of Youth later today or Monday.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore
winds.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT65 KNHC 271513
TCUAT5

Tropical Storm Idalia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1015 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023


...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
Tropical Depression Ten has strengthened into Tropical Storm Idalia.
The maximum winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.

SUMMARY OF 1015 AM CDT...1515 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 85.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...135 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 271500
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

So far this morning, the overall cloud pattern of the tropical
cyclone has not become significantly better organized. The small
center is partially exposed on GOES-16 visible imagery, and
convective banding features are still not very well defined. The
current intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory which is in
line with the latest Dvorak Satellite estimates. A NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft, flying at around 12000 ft, is near the center of
the system taking Doppler radar wind velocity measurements. These
data should provide valuable information on the structure of the
cyclone for initializing the numerical weather prediction models.

The center of the cyclone appears to have been moving in a small
clockwise loop overnight and into this morning, and it will
probably complete this loop today. The initial motion estimate is
now around 090/2 kt. Steering currents should remain weak through
today and tonight. Beginning on Monday, a mid-level ridge starts to
build near southern Florida and eastward. This evolution should
cause a generally northward motion during the next couple of days.
In 48 to 72 hours, a mid-level trough dropping into the eastern U.S.
will likely induce a turn toward the north-northeast and take the
system across the northeast Gulf of Mexico coast on Wednesday. The
official forecast track has been nudged to the right of the
previous one, but is not quite as far east as the latest corrected
consensus, HCCA, prediction. Users are reminded not to focus on
the exact forecast track, since strong winds, heavy rains and
dangerous storm surges extend well away from the center.

The cyclone will be moving over waters of high oceanic heat content
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and within a moist mid- to
low-level air mass for the next few days. An upper-tropospheric
trough is predicted to develop over the western Gulf of Mexico in 48
to 72 hours. Although this feature could produce some moderate
southwesterly vertical wind shear over the system, positive
vorticity advection and diffluent upper-level flow to the east of
the trough will likely be conducive for strengthening. The
official forecast, like the previous one, calls for the cyclone to
reach hurricane status over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in 48 to 72
hours. This is at the high end of the latest intensity model
guidance.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to become a hurricane over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico, and there is an increasing risk of life-threatening
storm surge, flooding from heavy rainfall, and hurricane-force winds
along portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida
Panhandle beginning as early as Tuesday. Although it is too soon
to specify the exact location and magnitude of these impacts,
residents in these areas should monitor updates to the forecast,
have their hurricane plan in place, and follow any advice given by
local officials. Storm surge and hurricane watches may be required
for portions of the Gulf coast of Florida later today.

2. Heavy rainfall is expected across the eastern Yucatan Peninsula
and western Cuba and may produce areas of flash and urban flooding
and landslides across western Cuba. The depression is forecast to
become a tropical storm later today, and tropical storm conditions
are expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and extreme
western Cuba with tropical storm conditions possible on the Isle of
Youth.

3. Scattered flooding from heavy rainfall is likely over in
portions of the southeast U.S. by mid to late week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 19.9N 85.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 19.7N 85.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 20.6N 85.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 21.9N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 24.0N 85.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 26.2N 85.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 28.9N 84.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 31/1200Z 33.0N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1200Z 34.5N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 271459
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 85.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...135 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Isle of Youth Cuba

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in Florida should monitor the progress of this system.
Storm surge and wind watches for portions of the Florida west coast
will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 85.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the east near 2 mph (4 km/h), and
it is likely to meander near the Yucatan Channel through tonight.
A faster motion toward the north is expected on Monday, bringing the
system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is expected to become a tropical storm today, and
strengthen into a hurricane by Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Portions of the eastern Yucatan: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated higher
totals of 6 inches.

Western Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and
southern Georgia: From Tuesday into Wednesday, 3 to 6 inches, with
isolated higher totals of 10 inches.

Heavy rainfall is also likely to spread into portions of the
Carolinas by Wednesday into Thursday.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba. Scattered flash and urban flooding can also be
expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida
Panhandle and portions of the Southeast U.S. by Tuesday into
Thursday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula today and western Cuba
tonight or Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within
the watch area on the Isle of Youth tonight or Monday.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore
winds.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 271458
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
1500 UTC SUN AUG 27 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 85.8W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 85.8W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 86.3W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.7N 85.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.6N 85.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.9N 85.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 90SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 24.0N 85.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 26.2N 85.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 28.9N 84.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 70SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 33.0N 79.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 34.5N 74.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 85.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 27/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 271155
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
700 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...DEPRESSION NEARING TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 86.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Isle of Youth Cuba

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in Florida should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 86.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the southeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and
it is likely to meander near the Yucatan Channel through early
Monday. A faster motion toward the north or north-northeast is
expected later on Monday, bringing the system over the eastern Gulf
of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today
and a hurricane by Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Ten can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Ten is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Portions of the eastern Yucatan: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated higher
totals of 6 inches.

Western Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and
southern Georgia: From Tuesday into Wednesday, 3 to 6 inches, with
isolated higher totals of 10 inches.

Heavy rainfall is also likely to spread into portions of the
Carolinas by Wednesday into Thursday.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba. Scattered flash and urban flooding can also be
expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida
Panhandle and portions of the Southeast U.S. by Tuesday into
Thursday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula today and western Cuba
tonight or Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within
the watch area on the Isle of Youth tonight or Monday.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore
winds.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 271000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 16.4N 119.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 119.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.3N 120.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 17.9N 122.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.3N 125.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 18.3N 127.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 18.2N 130.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 18.0N 133.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 18.3N 138.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 18.8N 141.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
271000Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 119.8W.
27AUG23. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 985
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 270600Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
271600Z, 272200Z, 280400Z AND 281000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 270859
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

The small circulation of Tropical Depression Ten continues to be
well-defined in Cancun radar, with the center moving across Cozumel
during the past few hours. Data from a Weatherflow sensor on the
island indicated that the pressure dropped to about 1001 mb, with
sustained winds of about 30 kt. A small burst of convection has
formed just south of the center recently, with scattered banding
features in the eastern semicircle. Most of the satellite
estimates are just shy of tropical storm strength, so the initial
winds speed will stay 30 kt. Both Air Force Reserve and NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be in the system later this morning
to get a better look at the structure and winds.

The depression has turned southward tonight, moving at about 4 kt,
apparently rotating around the western periphery of its larger
parent circulation to the east. Little net motion is expected for
about a day as steering currents remain weak. After that time, a
developing trough over the Gulf of Mexico and stronger ridging over
the western Atlantic is expected to lift the system toward the north
and north-northeast over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This track
takes the system toward Florida, and then near the southeastern
coast of the U.S. The overnight model guidance is a bit farther
west and slower than the last cycle, probably due to the depression
being further south than anticipated. Thus, the NHC forecast is
nudged westward, and lies on the east side of the guidance envelope.
These are small changes overall, and the track should be considered
lower confidence until it starts moving in a more consistent manner.
The NOAA G-IV aircraft should be in the area this afternoon to
help smooth out the model differences along with special upper-air
soundings scheduled across many areas of the southeastern United
States.

The very warm and deep waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
Gulf of Mexico should support at least gradual strengthening during
the next few days, tempered by moderate shear from a flat upper-
level trough. However, this trough is forecast to amplify over the
western Gulf of Mexico around Tuesday, which causes the shear to
decrease near the cyclone in that time frame. There's a notable
risk of rapid intensification while the system moves across the
record warm eastern and northeastern Gulf of Mexico, which is
highlighted by the recent HAFS and HWRF guidance. The new NHC
forecast is raised from the previous one, near or above the model
consensus, and could be too low. I'm reluctant to make any big
changes to the forecast until we get more in-situ data, but the
upward overnight model trend certainly bears watching. Users are
reminded to continue monitoring forecasts for any changes to the
system's expected intensity as it approaches Florida.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Ten is expected across
the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. The heavy rainfall
may produce areas of flash and urban flooding, as well as
landslides, across western Cuba. The depression is forecast to
become a tropical storm later today, and tropical storm conditions
are expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and extreme
western Cuba where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical
storm conditions are possible on the Isle of Youth, where a Tropical
Storm Watch is in effect.

2. The depression is forecast to strengthen during the next few days
and could become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico,
bringing a potential of dangerous storm surge, heavy rainfall, and
strong winds to portions of the west coast of Florida and the
Florida Panhandle by the middle of this week. Heavy rainfall is
also likely to spread into portions of the Southeast U.S. by mid to
late week. Although it is too soon to specify the exact location
and magnitude of these impacts, residents in these areas should
monitor updates to the forecast of this system and ensure that they
have their hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 20.1N 86.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 20.1N 86.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 20.6N 86.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 21.7N 86.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 23.3N 86.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 29/1800Z 25.7N 85.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 28.5N 84.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 31/0600Z 33.0N 81.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/0600Z 35.0N 75.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 270857
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...DEPRESSION MEANDERING NEAR YUCATAN...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 86.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Isle of Youth Cuba

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Florida should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 86.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the south near 5 mph (7 km/h), and
it is likely to meander near the Yucatan Channel through early
Monday. A faster motion toward the north or north-northeast is
expected later on Monday, bringing the system over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later
today and a hurricane by Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Ten can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Ten is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Portions of the eastern Yucatan: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated higher
totals of 6 inches.

Western Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and
southern Georgia: From Tuesday into Wednesday, 3 to 6 inches, with
isolated higher totals of 10 inches.

Heavy rainfall is also likely to spread into portions of the
Carolinas by Wednesday into Thursday.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba. Scattered flash and urban flooding can also be
expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida
Panhandle and portions of the Southeast U.S. by Tuesday into
Thursday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over portions
of the warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula today and western
Cuba tonight or Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area on the Isle of Youth tonight or Monday.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore
winds.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 270856
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
0900 UTC SUN AUG 27 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 86.8W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 86.8W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 86.8W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.1N 86.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 20.6N 86.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.7N 86.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 90SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 23.3N 86.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 70SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 25.7N 85.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 28.5N 84.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 70SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 33.0N 81.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 35.0N 75.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 86.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 27/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 270553
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
100 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...DEPRESSION BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN
A FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 86.8W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Isle of Youth Cuba

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Florida should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 86.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and
it is likely to meander near the Yucatan Channel through early
Monday. A faster motion toward the north or north-northeast is
expected later on Monday, bringing the system over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few
days. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later
today and a hurricane by Tuesday.

A Weatherflow station on Cozumel recently reported a sustained wind
of 36 mph (57 km/h) and a wind gust of 48 mph (78 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches)
based on surface observations from Cozumel and Playa del Carmen.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Ten can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Ten is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches,
across portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. Across western
Cuba, rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches, are expected. This rainfall may lead to
flash and urban flooding, and landslides across western Cuba.

Heavy rainfall is also likely to impact portions of the west coast
of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and the Southeast by mid to late
week.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over portions
of the warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula today and western
Cuba tonight or Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area on the Isle of Youth tonight or Monday.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore
winds.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 270400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261951AUG2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 15.8N 118.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 118.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.8N 119.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.5N 121.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.2N 124.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 18.4N 126.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 18.4N 129.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 18.1N 132.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 18.2N 137.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 18.5N 140.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
270400Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 118.8W.
27AUG23. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1016 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 82700Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
271000Z, 271600Z, 272200Z AND 280400Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 262000).//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 270244
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023

Images from the Mexico meteorological service's radar in Cancun show
that the depression has a small but well-defined circulation with
spiral banding extending no more than about 60 n mi from the center.
This feature is embedded within a larger circulation with scattered
deep convection covering the northwestern Caribbean Sea, extreme
southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and adjacent land areas. The initial
intensity is set to 30 kt based on the latest subjective Dvorak
estimate from TAFB and objective numbers from UW-CIMSS.

The depression appears to be drifting toward the southwest with an
initial motion of 230/2 kt, with low- to mid-level ridging located
to its north and northwest. The system is expected to continue
meandering over the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next 24-36
hours. After that time, a developing trough over the Gulf of Mexico
and strengthening ridging over the western Atlantic is expected to
begin lifting the system toward the north and north-northeast over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico toward Florida, and then near the
southeastern coast of the U.S. The updated NHC track forecast lies
on top of or very near the previous prediction and closely follows
the TVCX and HCCA consensus aids.

Assuming the depression's center does not move over the Yucatan
Peninsula, very warm waters and low to moderate vertical shear
should support gradual strengthening during the next few days. The
NHC intensity prediction is a little below the consensus aids during
the first 36 hours of the forecast but then converges with those
aids thereafter, showing the system reaching hurricane strength by
60 hours. The system is expected to remain a hurricane, and
potentially continue strengthening, up until it reaches the Gulf
coast of Florida on Wednesday. Users are reminded to continue
monitoring forecasts for any changes to the system's expected
intensity as it approaches Florida. Land interaction and increasing
shear should lead to fast weakening after the system moves over
land, but it could still produce tropical-storm-force winds near and
offshore the southeastern coast of the U.S. even if the center is
inland.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Ten is expected across
the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. The heavy rainfall
may produce areas of flash and urban flooding, as well as
landslides, across western Cuba. The depression is forecast to
become a tropical storm by Sunday, and tropical storm conditions are
expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and extreme
western Cuba where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical
storm conditions are possible on the Isle of Youth, where a Tropical
Storm Watch is in effect.

2. The depression is forecast to strengthen during the next few days
and could become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico,
bringing a potential of dangerous storm surge, heavy rainfall, and
strong winds to portions of the west coast of Florida and the
Florida Panhandle by the middle of next week. Heavy rainfall is
also likely to spread into portions of the Southeast U.S. by mid to
late next week. Although it is too soon to specify the exact
location and magnitude of these impacts, residents in these areas
should monitor updates to the forecast of this system and ensure
that they have their hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 21.1N 86.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 20.9N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 20.9N 86.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 21.6N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 23.1N 85.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 25.0N 85.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 27.5N 84.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 31/0000Z 32.7N 81.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/0000Z 35.2N 76.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 270243
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN
A FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 86.4W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM NE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch for
Pinar del Rio to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Isle of Youth Cuba

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Florida should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 86.4 West. The
depression is drifting toward the southwest near 2 mph (4 km/h) and
is likely to meander near the Yucatan Channel through early Monday.
A faster motion toward the north or north-northeast is expected on
Monday, bringing the system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The
depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Sunday and a
hurricane by Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Ten can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Ten is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches,
across portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. Across western
Cuba, rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches, are expected. This rainfall may lead to
flash and urban flooding, and landslides across western Cuba.

Heavy rainfall is also likely to impact portions of the west coast
of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and the Southeast by mid to late
next week.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over portions
of the warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday and
western Cuba Sunday night or Monday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area on the Isle of Youth Sunday
night or Monday.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore
winds.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 270243
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
0300 UTC SUN AUG 27 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 86.4W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 86.4W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 86.3W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.9N 86.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.9N 86.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.6N 85.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 90SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 23.1N 85.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.5N 84.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 80SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 32.7N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 35.2N 76.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 86.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 27/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 262342
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
700 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MEANDERING OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 86.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Florida should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 86.2 West. The
depression is nearly stationary, and little overall movement is
expected through Sunday. A slow, generally northward, motion is
expected to begin on Monday. On the forecast track, the center will
move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the
system is likely to become a tropical storm on Sunday. The system
could then become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico by
Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Ten can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Ten is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches,
across portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. Across western
Cuba, rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches, are expected. This rainfall may lead to flash
and urban flooding, and landslides across western Cuba.

Heavy rainfall is also likely to impact portions of the Gulf Coast
and portions of the Southeast by mid- to late next week.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over portions
of the warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the watch area over western
Cuba beginning on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore
winds.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 262053
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023

The cloud pattern of the low pressure area located near the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico has gradually become
better organized today. Radar observations show a circulation has
developed, although surface observations indicate that the western
semicircle of this circulation is rather weak at this time. Given
the increased organization, advisories are being initiated on
Tropical Depression Ten. Surface synoptic observations suggest that
the current intensity is around 25 kt.

The current motion estimate is nearly stationary. There is a
weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of the tropical
cyclone, leaving the system in a region of very weak steering flow.
The dynamical guidance indicates that the system will remain in
weak steering currents for the next 24 to 36 hours, so very little
motion is predicted during that period. After that time, a
mid-level ridge begins to build to the east of the tropical cyclone.
This should cause a generally northward motion in the next 2 to 3
days. Then, a gradual turn to the north-northeast is expected as
the system moves along the northwestern periphery of the ridge. The
official track forecast is a blend of the simple and corrected
dynamical model consensus guidance.

The tropical cyclone will be moving over very warm waters with only
moderate vertical wind shear anticipated during the next several
days. Therefore, gradual strengthening is forecast. The official
forecast is similar to the latest LGEM guidance and shows the
system becoming a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Users
are reminded that there is significant uncertainty in 3-4 day
intensity predictions and are urged to monitor changes to future
forecasts.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Ten is expected across
the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. The heavy rainfall
may produce areas of flash and urban flooding, as well as
landslides, across western Cuba. The depression is forecast to
become a tropical storm by Sunday, and tropical storm conditions are
expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula where a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible
over portions of western Cuba within the Tropical Storm Watch area.

2. The depression is forecast to strengthen during the next few days
and could become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico,
bringing a potential of dangerous storm surge, heavy rainfall, and
strong winds to portions of the west coast of Florida and the
Florida Panhandle by the middle of next week. Heavy rainfall is
also likely to spread into portions of the Southeast U.S. by mid to
late next week. Although it is too soon to specify the exact
location and magnitude of these impacts, residents in these areas
should monitor updates to the forecast of this system and ensure
that they have their hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 21.1N 86.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 21.0N 86.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 20.9N 86.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 20.8N 86.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 22.0N 85.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 24.0N 85.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 26.3N 85.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 31.5N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/1800Z 35.0N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 262047
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 86.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Tulum to Rio Lagartos,
including Cozumel.

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
extreme western Cuba for the provinces of Pinar Del Rio and the
Isle of Youth.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 86.2 West. The
depression is nearly stationary, and little overall movement is
expected through Sunday. A slow, generally northward, motion is
expected to begin on Monday. On the forecast track, the center
will move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
system is likely to become a tropical storm on Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Ten can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Ten is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches,
across portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. Across western
Cuba, rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches, are expected. This rainfall may lead to flash
and urban flooding, and landslides across western Cuba.

Heavy rainfall is also likely to impact portions of the Gulf Coast
and portions of the Southeast by mid- to late next week.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over portions
of the warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the watch area over western
Cuba beginning on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore
winds.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 262047
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
2100 UTC SAT AUG 26 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 86.1W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 86.1W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 86.1W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.0N 86.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.9N 86.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 20.8N 86.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 22.0N 85.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 24.0N 85.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 26.3N 85.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 31.5N 83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 35.0N 79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 86.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 27/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>