Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JOSE-23
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 020411

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 02.09.2023

HURRICANE FRANKLIN ANALYSED POSITION : 39.5N 51.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.09.2023 0 39.5N 51.8W 978 67
1200UTC 02.09.2023 12 42.9N 46.4W 981 68
0000UTC 03.09.2023 24 45.1N 42.2W 982 56
1200UTC 03.09.2023 36 46.5N 37.5W 987 42
0000UTC 04.09.2023 48 47.5N 31.9W 992 39
1200UTC 04.09.2023 60 48.0N 28.4W 994 35
0000UTC 05.09.2023 72 46.9N 27.0W 995 35
1200UTC 05.09.2023 84 44.2N 26.9W 994 36
0000UTC 06.09.2023 96 40.9N 23.9W 996 32
1200UTC 06.09.2023 108 40.3N 19.9W 997 32
0000UTC 07.09.2023 120 41.5N 18.6W 998 32
1200UTC 07.09.2023 132 40.6N 17.6W 1001 26
0000UTC 08.09.2023 144 40.5N 16.4W 1003 26
1200UTC 08.09.2023 156 39.2N 16.6W 1005 25
0000UTC 09.09.2023 168 37.4N 15.7W 1005 22

TROPICAL STORM GERT ANALYSED POSITION : 28.0N 53.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.09.2023 0 28.0N 53.9W 1009 23
1200UTC 02.09.2023 12 28.0N 53.3W 1008 28
0000UTC 03.09.2023 24 29.2N 52.7W 1008 27
1200UTC 03.09.2023 36 30.8N 52.0W 1008 29
0000UTC 04.09.2023 48 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12L ANALYSED POSITION : 20.8N 28.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.09.2023 0 20.8N 28.8W 1008 32
1200UTC 02.09.2023 12 23.4N 29.8W 1010 34
0000UTC 03.09.2023 24 24.8N 31.4W 1011 31
1200UTC 03.09.2023 36 25.8N 32.6W 1012 27
0000UTC 04.09.2023 48 26.4N 33.7W 1013 23
1200UTC 04.09.2023 60 27.2N 35.0W 1013 24
0000UTC 05.09.2023 72 27.8N 35.7W 1014 21
1200UTC 05.09.2023 84 28.4N 36.3W 1013 21
0000UTC 06.09.2023 96 28.5N 36.4W 1013 22
1200UTC 06.09.2023 108 28.3N 35.6W 1013 21
0000UTC 07.09.2023 120 27.7N 35.6W 1013 20
1200UTC 07.09.2023 132 27.1N 36.1W 1014 19
0000UTC 08.09.2023 144 26.9N 37.2W 1015 21
1200UTC 08.09.2023 156 26.9N 38.4W 1015 22
0000UTC 09.09.2023 168 27.0N 39.7W 1015 22

TROPICAL STORM IDALIA ANALYSED POSITION : 32.0N 65.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.09.2023 0 32.0N 65.6W 1002 43
1200UTC 02.09.2023 12 32.0N 64.2W 1000 43
0000UTC 03.09.2023 24 31.8N 62.4W 999 48
1200UTC 03.09.2023 36 34.0N 60.5W 995 55
0000UTC 04.09.2023 48 35.6N 58.6W 994 53
1200UTC 04.09.2023 60 38.7N 57.2W 995 41
0000UTC 05.09.2023 72 41.3N 56.5W 996 38
1200UTC 05.09.2023 84 43.0N 56.6W 997 35
0000UTC 06.09.2023 96 43.2N 56.3W 999 28
1200UTC 06.09.2023 108 43.4N 57.1W 1000 26
0000UTC 07.09.2023 120 43.1N 56.2W 1001 26
1200UTC 07.09.2023 132 44.4N 54.6W 1004 23
0000UTC 08.09.2023 144 45.2N 53.0W 1008 20
1200UTC 08.09.2023 156 45.1N 49.7W 1012 25
0000UTC 09.09.2023 168 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 41.3N 49.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.09.2023 0 41.3N 49.6W 998 67
1200UTC 02.09.2023 12 42.9N 46.4W 981 68
0000UTC 03.09.2023 24 45.1N 42.2W 982 56
1200UTC 03.09.2023 36 46.5N 37.5W 987 42
0000UTC 04.09.2023 48 47.5N 31.9W 992 39
1200UTC 04.09.2023 60 48.0N 28.4W 994 35
0000UTC 05.09.2023 72 46.9N 27.0W 995 35
1200UTC 05.09.2023 84 44.2N 26.9W 994 36
0000UTC 06.09.2023 96 40.9N 23.9W 996 32
1200UTC 06.09.2023 108 40.3N 19.9W 997 32
0000UTC 07.09.2023 120 41.5N 18.6W 998 32
1200UTC 07.09.2023 132 40.6N 17.6W 1001 26
0000UTC 08.09.2023 144 40.5N 16.4W 1003 26
1200UTC 08.09.2023 156 39.2N 16.6W 1005 25
0000UTC 09.09.2023 168 37.4N 15.7W 1005 22

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 12.9N 120.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.09.2023 156 13.2N 122.5W 1005 32
0000UTC 09.09.2023 168 14.7N 125.5W 1005 35


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 020410

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 020242
TCDAT1

Remnants Of Jose Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

Jose has been absorbed into the powerful extratropical cyclone,
Franklin. Geostationary imagery suggests the remnants of Jose are
embedded in a convective band in the northeast quadrant of Franklin.
The initial intensity has been set to 40 kt, though it is hard to
determine a maximum wind speed associated with the remnants, when
the intensity of Franklin is likely much stronger.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
Jose. Additional information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 42.1N 47.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 020242
TCMAT1

REMNANTS OF JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112023
0300 UTC SAT SEP 02 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.1N 47.4W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 180SE 420SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.1N 47.4W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.3N 48.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.1N 47.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 020242
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Jose Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

...JOSE ABSORBED INTO POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRANKLIN...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.1N 47.4W
ABOUT 1170 MI...1880 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the remnants of Jose were located near
latitude 42.1 North, longitude 47.4 West. The remnants are moving
toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h).

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 012036
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
500 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

Jose has started to become more elongated in recent geostationary
imagery. However, a midday AMSR2 microwave pass showed that the
system still has a small coherent mid-level circulation. The
intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory, in best agreement with
recent UW-CIMSS AiDT, DMINT, and DPRINT estimates. It is noted that
the intensity is more uncertain than usual given the compact nature
of the system and its degraded convective structure. The storm is
beginning to move underneath the upper-level clouds associated with
Franklin's outflow.

Jose continues to accelerate towards the north-northeast at about 28
kt. The increase in forward motion and interaction with Franklin
could lead to a slight expansion of the tropical-storm-force winds
on the east side of Jose. The tropical storm is still expected to
dissipate sometime tonight as it becomes absorbed by Franklin. The
track forecast is largely based on the global model wind fields, and
little intensity change is anticipated through dissipation as the
fast forward motion is likely to maintain stronger winds over the
eastern semicircle.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 39.4N 49.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 43.5N 47.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stevenson/Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 012035
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
500 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

...COMPACT JOSE EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY FRANKLIN SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.4N 49.1W
ABOUT 1005 MI...1615 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was
located near latitude 39.4 North, longitude 49.1 West. Jose is
moving quickly toward the north-northeast near 32 mph (52 km/h). An
even faster northward or north-northeastward motion is expected
through early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast, and Jose is expected to
become absorbed by Franklin by tonight or early Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Stevenson

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 012035
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112023
2100 UTC FRI SEP 01 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 49.1W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 28 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 49.1W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 49.9W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 43.5N 47.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.4N 49.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/STEVENSON

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 011438
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

Deep convection is waning and becoming more asymmetric near the
center of Jose on satellite imagery as northerly shear from
Franklin's outflow increases. The low-level center is starting to
become exposed. Jose's initial intensity is conservatively lowered
to 45 kt for this advisory based on the automated Dvorak intensity
estimate from UW-CIMSS and the degraded satellite structure of Jose.
This lies near the average of the upper uncertainty bound from the
CIMSS DMINT intensity estimate (which incorporated the overnight
SSMIS microwave overpass) and the Dvorak estimates of 35 kt from
TAFB and SAB.

Jose is accelerating and the forward motion is currently estimated
to be north-northeastward (15 degrees) at 20 kt. The increase in
forward speed and interaction with Franklin could lead to a slight
expansion of the tropical-storm-force winds on the east side of
Jose. The tropical storm is expected to dissipate sometime tonight
as it is absorbed by Franklin. The track forecast is slightly
faster than the consensus aids based on the global model wind
fields. Little intensity change is forecast as the fast forward
speed of the system is likely to maintain stronger winds in the
eastern semicircle, despite diminished convection.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 36.0N 50.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 39.5N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stevenson/Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 011437
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

...JOSE ACCELERATING NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY FRANKLIN TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.0N 50.9W
ABOUT 835 MI...1340 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was
located near latitude 36.0 North, longitude 50.9 West. Jose is
moving toward the north-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this
general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through
early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast, and Jose is expected to
become absorbed by Franklin tonight or early Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Stevenson

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 011437
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112023
1500 UTC FRI SEP 01 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 50.9W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 50.9W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.9N 51.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 39.5N 50.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.0N 50.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/STEVENSON

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 010850
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
500 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

This morning's satellite presentation consists of a compact,
symmetric cloud pattern with intermittent deep convective bursts of
convection near the surface center. An earlier AMSR2 microwave
image revealed evidence of a small eye-like mid-level feature.
Based on the much-improved structure, particularly in the microwave
images, this advisory's initial intensity is raised to 50 kt, but
it could be stronger. The intensity philosophy remains unchanged.
Increasing northerly shear associated with Hurricane Franklin's
outflow should weaken the cyclone. By early Saturday, Jose
is forecast to become absorbed by Franklin and an intruding
mid-latitude baroclinic system.

Jose's initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 005/16 kt.
The small cyclone is being steered by the mid-tropospheric flow
produced by a high pressure to the east over the central Atlantic
and larger Hurricane Franklin approaching from the northwest. Jose
is expected to accelerate northward through dissipation while the
deep-layer southerly steering flow strengthens. The deterministic
guidance agrees with this solution, and the NHC forecast lies
close to the HFIP corrected consensus aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 33.9N 52.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 37.0N 51.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 010849
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112023
0900 UTC FRI SEP 01 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 52.0W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 52.0W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 52.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 37.0N 51.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N 52.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 010850
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
500 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

...COMPACT JOSE STRONGER...
...BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY LARGER HURRICANE FRANKLIN
BY SATURDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 52.0W
ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was
located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 52.0 West. Jose is
moving toward the north near 18 mph (30 km/h). An accelerated
northward motion is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Jose is expected to
become absorbed by Franklin tonight or early Saturday.


Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 010242
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2023

Jose is a tiny tropical cyclone with the convective cloud tops only
extending 50 to 60 n mi across. However, geostationary satellite
and microwave images indicate that the storm has a tight
circulation with evidence of a mid-level eye feature. A recent
ASCAT pass showed peak winds in the 40-45 kt range, but since the
system is so small that instrument likely can not resolve the peak
winds. The initial intensity is increased to 50 kt, which is above
the Dvorak estimates.

Jose is likely near its peak intensity. There is no way Jose will
escape the outflow associated with Hurricane Franklin, that is
expected to begin affecting the small storm by midday Friday.
Therefore, the forecast shows a steady weakening trend until it
becomes absorbed by Franklin in about 36 hours.

The storm is moving northward at 11 kt and is moving in the flow
between Franklin and a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. A
faster motion to the north is expected until the system dissipates
on Saturday. The NHC track forecast is slightly to the west of the
previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 32.7N 52.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 35.5N 52.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 39.9N 51.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci/Fritz

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 010241
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2023

...SMALL JOSE STRENGTHENS WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 52.4W
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was
located near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 52.4 West. Jose is
moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A faster northward
motion is expected during the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Jose is expected to
become absorbed by Franklin on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi/Fritz

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 010241
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112023
0300 UTC FRI SEP 01 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 52.4W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 52.4W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 52.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.5N 52.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 39.9N 51.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.7N 52.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 312039
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
500 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2023

The cloud pattern of Jose has changed little since earlier today.
Banding features are limited, and the convection near the center
is not very deep at this time. The upper-level outflow is being
impeded over the western portion of the circulation, suggestive
of northwesterly shear over the system. The current intensity
estimate remains at 35 kt in agreement with a subjective Dvorak
T-number from TAFB.

Latest center fixes indicate that the system is moving northward
with increasing forward speed. The current motion estimate is
360/10 kt. During the next 12 to 24 hours Jose should continue to
move generally northward, with a continued increase in forward
speed, along the western side of a mid-level anticyclone, Then,
the cyclone is likely to become entrained into the eastern portion
of the larger circulation of Franklin. The official track forecast
is similar to the previous one and in good agreement with the
global model solutions.

Given the influence of nearby Franklin on both the low-level
circulation and the upper-level outflow, Jose is not likely to
strengthen significantly during the next day or so. The official
forecast, like the previous one, shows the system dissipating after
24 hours since it is expected to be absorbed by Franklin by then.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 30.8N 52.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 33.1N 52.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 37.2N 51.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 312038
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112023
2100 UTC THU AUG 31 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 52.2W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 52.2W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 52.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 33.1N 52.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 37.2N 51.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 52.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 312038
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
500 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2023

...JOSE MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH...
...STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY FRANKLIN ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 52.2W
ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was
located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 52.2 West. Jose is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A faster northward
motion is expected during the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change is strength is forecast during the next day
or so, and Jose is expected to become absorbed by Franklin on
Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 311454
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2023

Jose is producing bursts of deep convection near and over the
estimated center position this morning. Overnight microwave data
suggest the surface center was pulled slightly eastward by an
increase in convection during the diurnal maximum period. The
various satellite intensity estimates range from 32-45 kt this
morning, with the subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and
TAFB (45 kt) higher than the objective UW-CIMSS estimates which are
around 35 kt. A timely ASCAT-B pass over Jose shows believable wind
vectors up to 32 kt in the eastern semicircle, which supports
holding the initial intensity at 35 kt for this advisory.

The storm is moving northward at about 6 kt. An acceleration toward
the north is expected during the next day or so as the small system
gets caught in the broader cyclonic circulation associated with
Hurricane Franklin. Deep-layer shear is forecast to increase over
Jose as it accelerates northward toward Franklin, but Jose appears
likely to maintain some tropical-storm-force winds in its eastern
semicircle due to its faster northward motion. There have been no
notable changes to the NHC track or intensity forecast, and Jose is
now expected to be absorbed by Franklin in 36 h, in agreement with
the latest global models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 29.7N 52.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 31.4N 52.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 34.4N 51.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 311452
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2023

...JOSE MOVING NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY FRANKLIN ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 52.1W
ABOUT 770 MI...1245 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was
located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 52.1 West. Jose is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster northward
motion is expected during the next day or so before Jose is absorbed
by Franklin.

Satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near
40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change is strength is
forecast during the next day or so, and Jose is expected to become
absorbed by Franklin on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 311451
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112023
1500 UTC THU AUG 31 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 52.1W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 52.1W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 52.1W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 31.4N 52.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 34.4N 51.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.7N 52.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 310849
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
500 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2023

Convection since the prior advisory has become markedly better
organized on infrared and shortwave-IR imagery. Instead of the
bursting pattern exhibited the prior two nights, there is more
evidence of curved banding, which was noted on the GMI microwave
pass last evening and a more recent AMSR2 pass at 0458 UTC.
Subjective estimates form TAFB and SAB were both T2.5/35 kt, and the
latest SATCON estimate was up to 37 kt. All these data suggest the
depression has become tropical storm Jose, and 35 kt is the initial
intensity this advisory.

Jose has certainly been in no hurry to move anywhere the last couple
of days, but may finally be starting a more northward motion, now
estimated at 350/5 kt. Part of the storm's previous lack of motion
was related to competing steering influences from mid-level ridging
both to its north and south, keeping the small cycle parked in
place. However, The large circulation of Hurricane Franklin
approaching from the west should break this steering stalemate. Jose
is forecast to soon accelerate northward as it becomes swept up in
the larger hurricane's circulation. The track guidance is in good
agreement with this solution, and the track forecast was largely an
update of the previous advisory.

Despite Jose becoming a tropical storm, it does not appear likely
to intensify very much more. While vertical wind shear is currently
low, it should rapidly increase as Jose accelerates north and
Franklin's outflow increases the upper-level flow from the opposite
direction. Most of the guidance shows Jose getting absorbed by
Franklin by the weekend, and the latest NHC intensity forecast
shows this solution occuring in 48 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 28.8N 52.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 30.3N 52.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 32.6N 52.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 36.4N 51.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 02/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRANKLIN

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 310847
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
500 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2023

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM JOSE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 52.2W
ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was
located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 52.2 West. Jose is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this general motion
with an increase in forward speed is expected to continue for the
next day or so before the system is absorbed by Franklin.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast over the next day or so, with
the small system forecast to be absorbed by Franklin by the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 310846
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112023
0900 UTC THU AUG 31 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 52.2W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 52.2W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 52.2W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 30.3N 52.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 32.6N 52.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 36.4N 51.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRANKLIN

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 52.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 310412

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 31.08.2023

TROPICAL STORM IDALIA ANALYSED POSITION : 32.4N 80.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.08.2023 0 32.4N 80.6W 987 45
1200UTC 31.08.2023 12 33.6N 76.9W 992 44
0000UTC 01.09.2023 24 33.1N 72.9W 996 44
1200UTC 01.09.2023 36 32.6N 69.8W 1000 44
0000UTC 02.09.2023 48 31.5N 67.3W 1002 42
1200UTC 02.09.2023 60 31.6N 66.3W 1002 41
0000UTC 03.09.2023 72 32.0N 66.1W 1001 35
1200UTC 03.09.2023 84 31.6N 65.7W 1001 34
0000UTC 04.09.2023 96 31.9N 64.0W 1001 27
1200UTC 04.09.2023 108 32.5N 62.6W 1002 25
0000UTC 05.09.2023 120 33.5N 62.1W 1002 25
1200UTC 05.09.2023 132 34.9N 61.7W 1004 31
0000UTC 06.09.2023 144 36.3N 63.1W 1004 32
1200UTC 06.09.2023 156 37.5N 66.4W 1002 36
0000UTC 07.09.2023 168 38.4N 68.3W 1000 37

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 22.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.08.2023 0 15.6N 22.9W 1009 22
1200UTC 31.08.2023 12 17.1N 24.4W 1009 24
0000UTC 01.09.2023 24 18.0N 26.2W 1010 25
1200UTC 01.09.2023 36 20.2N 27.5W 1009 34
0000UTC 02.09.2023 48 22.2N 29.5W 1009 35
1200UTC 02.09.2023 60 23.2N 30.8W 1009 32
0000UTC 03.09.2023 72 24.7N 32.3W 1011 26
1200UTC 03.09.2023 84 26.1N 33.5W 1012 24
0000UTC 04.09.2023 96 27.3N 34.5W 1013 20
1200UTC 04.09.2023 108 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GERT ANALYSED POSITION : 28.0N 58.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.08.2023 0 28.0N 58.6W 1013 25
1200UTC 31.08.2023 12 28.3N 57.3W 1012 26
0000UTC 01.09.2023 24 28.2N 55.8W 1012 20
1200UTC 01.09.2023 36 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE FRANKLIN ANALYSED POSITION : 34.4N 65.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.08.2023 0 34.4N 65.2W 961 77
1200UTC 31.08.2023 12 35.2N 62.4W 967 83
0000UTC 01.09.2023 24 36.5N 59.4W 981 59
1200UTC 01.09.2023 36 38.6N 55.8W 981 56
0000UTC 02.09.2023 48 40.2N 50.9W 971 66
1200UTC 02.09.2023 60 43.3N 45.2W 978 70
0000UTC 03.09.2023 72 45.6N 40.0W 978 59
1200UTC 03.09.2023 84 47.1N 35.2W 985 44
0000UTC 04.09.2023 96 47.7N 30.3W 991 38
1200UTC 04.09.2023 108 48.2N 26.7W 996 36
0000UTC 05.09.2023 120 48.0N 26.1W 1000 35
1200UTC 05.09.2023 132 44.8N 25.6W 1000 38
0000UTC 06.09.2023 144 41.0N 22.7W 997 34
1200UTC 06.09.2023 156 40.0N 18.8W 998 27
0000UTC 07.09.2023 168 41.7N 16.9W 1000 28

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.1N 52.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.08.2023 0 28.1N 52.2W 1014 21
1200UTC 31.08.2023 12 28.9N 51.8W 1012 26
0000UTC 01.09.2023 24 31.1N 52.1W 1011 26
1200UTC 01.09.2023 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 27.5N 52.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.09.2023 84 27.7N 52.5W 1011 18
0000UTC 04.09.2023 96 27.8N 52.2W 1010 19
1200UTC 04.09.2023 108 28.3N 51.6W 1010 20
0000UTC 05.09.2023 120 27.8N 51.3W 1010 20
1200UTC 05.09.2023 132 27.9N 50.3W 1010 22
0000UTC 06.09.2023 144 27.5N 49.5W 1010 24
1200UTC 06.09.2023 156 27.5N 48.5W 1009 23
0000UTC 07.09.2023 168 27.7N 48.3W 1009 21

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 13.8N 42.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.09.2023 144 13.8N 42.6W 1009 24
1200UTC 06.09.2023 156 14.1N 45.7W 1007 27
0000UTC 07.09.2023 168 15.2N 47.4W 1007 35


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 310411

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 310411

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 31.08.2023

TROPICAL STORM IDALIA ANALYSED POSITION : 32.4N 80.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 31.08.2023 32.4N 80.6W MODERATE
12UTC 31.08.2023 33.6N 76.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.09.2023 33.1N 72.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.09.2023 32.6N 69.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.09.2023 31.5N 67.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2023 31.6N 66.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2023 32.0N 66.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2023 31.6N 65.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2023 31.9N 64.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2023 32.5N 62.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2023 33.5N 62.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2023 34.9N 61.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2023 36.3N 63.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2023 37.5N 66.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2023 38.4N 68.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 22.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 31.08.2023 15.6N 22.9W WEAK
12UTC 31.08.2023 17.1N 24.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2023 18.0N 26.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2023 20.2N 27.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2023 22.2N 29.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2023 23.2N 30.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2023 24.7N 32.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2023 26.1N 33.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2023 27.3N 34.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GERT ANALYSED POSITION : 28.0N 58.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 31.08.2023 28.0N 58.6W WEAK
12UTC 31.08.2023 28.3N 57.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2023 28.2N 55.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE FRANKLIN ANALYSED POSITION : 34.4N 65.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 31.08.2023 34.4N 65.2W STRONG
12UTC 31.08.2023 35.2N 62.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.09.2023 36.5N 59.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 01.09.2023 38.6N 55.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2023 40.2N 50.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.09.2023 43.3N 45.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.09.2023 45.6N 40.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2023 47.1N 35.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.09.2023 47.7N 30.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.09.2023 48.2N 26.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.09.2023 48.0N 26.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2023 44.8N 25.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2023 41.0N 22.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2023 40.0N 18.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2023 41.7N 16.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.1N 52.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 31.08.2023 28.1N 52.2W WEAK
12UTC 31.08.2023 28.9N 51.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2023 31.1N 52.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 27.5N 52.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.09.2023 27.7N 52.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.09.2023 27.8N 52.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2023 28.3N 51.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2023 27.8N 51.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2023 27.9N 50.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2023 27.5N 49.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2023 27.5N 48.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2023 27.7N 48.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 13.8N 42.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.09.2023 13.8N 42.6W WEAK
12UTC 06.09.2023 14.1N 45.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2023 15.2N 47.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 310411

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 310246
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2023

There has been a healthy burst of convection near the estimated
low-level center this evening. Microwave satellite imagery shows
some small curved bands on the eastern portion of the circulation.
The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory, closest to
the subjective Dvorak estimate from SAB.

The depression continues to meander over the open waters of
the central Atlantic. Model guidance predicts it will begin moving
to the north soon, and gradually increase in forward speed over the
next day or so between the flow of a subtropical ridge to its east
and the flow around Hurricane Franklin to its west. Only minor
adjustments have been made to latest official track forecast.

There have also been no changes to the intensity forecast.
Global models indicate the depression should lose deep,
organized convection within a day or so, and the official forecast
shows it becoming a remnant low in 36 h and dissipating by day 2.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 28.5N 52.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 29.3N 52.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 31.3N 52.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 33.9N 51.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 310245
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2023

...DEPRESSION MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 52.4W
ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 52.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h) and this
general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to
continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is expected to become a remnant low in the next day
or so.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 310244
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112023
0300 UTC THU AUG 31 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 52.4W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 52.4W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 52.4W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 29.3N 52.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 31.3N 52.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 33.9N 51.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 52.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 302032
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
500 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2023

The depression has become a little less organized on visible
satellite imagery this afternoon, with multiple vortices exposed on
the western edge of the convection. Satellite intensity estimates
from TAFB/SAB are around 30 kt, and given the current disorganized
structure, with an exposed center, the intensity will remain at 30
kt for this advisory.

The depression continues to drift over the central Atlantic. It
will slowly move northward later today, and then a little faster
northward by Thursday. The NHC track forecast is close to the
previous one, and lies near the corrected consensus aids.

The intensity forecast remains unchanged from the previous forecast.
The depression still may briefly strengthen into a very short-lived
tropical storm, but most of the intensity guidance keeps the system
as a depression. As the system moves northward, it will encounter
dry air and increased vertical wind shear. Therefore, the
depression is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low in
about day or so, and dissipate by 48 h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 28.5N 52.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 29.0N 52.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 30.4N 52.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 32.7N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 302031
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
500 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2023

...DEPRESSION DRIFTING IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO ONLY LAST ANOTHER DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 52.3W
ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 52.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h) and and it
will likely continue to meander slowly for the next day or so. A
slightly faster northward motion is expected to begin in about a
day.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast, with the system expected
to become a remnant low within the next day or so.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 302031
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112023
2100 UTC WED AUG 30 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 52.3W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 52.3W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 52.3W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 29.0N 52.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 30.4N 52.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 32.7N 52.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 52.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 301443
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 30 2023

The depression had a large burst of convection this morning.
Scatterometer missed the system this morning, so we did
not get any data of the wind field with this convective burst. A
blend of subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are
still around 30 kt, and the intensity is held at 30 kt for this
advisory cycle.

The depression continues to meander over the central Atlantic. It
is expected to slowly move northward later today, and then a little
faster northward by Thursday. The NHC track forecast is slower in
short-term than the previous forecast, given the initial slow
motion, and lies near the corrected consensus aids.

The intensity forecast remains unchanged from the previous forecast.
The depression still may briefly strengthen into a very short-lived
tropical storm, but most of the guidance keep the system as a
depression. As the system moves northward it will encounter an
environment of dry air and increased shear. The depression is
forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low in about day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 28.3N 52.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 28.6N 52.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 29.5N 52.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 31.1N 52.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 01/1200Z 33.3N 51.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 301443
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 30 2023

...DEPRESSION MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 52.1W
ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 52.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h) and it
will likely continue to meander slowly for the next day or so. A
slightly faster northward motion is expected to begin in about a
day.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so.
The system is expected to become a remnant low within the next
couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 301442
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112023
1500 UTC WED AUG 30 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 52.1W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 52.1W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 52.1W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 28.6N 52.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 29.5N 52.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 31.1N 52.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 33.3N 51.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 52.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 300838
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
500 AM AST Wed Aug 30 2023

The depression re-developed a larger area of deep convection early
this morning, with signs of lightning activity associated with that
convection in GLM data. While this will allow the depression to
maintain its classification as a tropical cyclone for a while
longer, satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB still only
support an intensity of around 30 kt.

The depression continues to meander, having drifted eastward for
the past several hours. It is still expected to turn generally
northward later today, albeit at a very slow pace. Models suggest
it could finally begin to accelerate northward by Thursday, but
this acceleration will likely cause the system to open into a
trough. The NHC track forecast remains near the multi-model
consensus.

There has been no change to the intensity forecast thinking. The
depression still has another day or so to briefly strengthen and
become a very short-lived tropical storm, but most of the intensity
guidance does not support that scenario. Instead, it is becoming
more likely that the depression will succumb to a combination of dry
air and shear and become a post-tropical remnant low in another day
or so. The NHC forecast is near the middle of the intensity guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 28.2N 52.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 28.4N 52.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 29.2N 52.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 30.6N 52.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 01/0600Z 32.7N 52.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 300837
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
500 AM AST Wed Aug 30 2023

...MEANDERING DEPRESSION ONLY EXPECTED TO LAST ANOTHER DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 52.1W
ABOUT 810 MI...1300 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 52.1 West. The
depression is drifting toward the east near 1 mph (2 km/h), and it
will likely continue to meander slowly for the next day or so. A
slightly faster northward motion is expected to begin in about a
day.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so.
The system is expected to become a remnant low within the next
couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 300837
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112023
0900 UTC WED AUG 30 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 52.1W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 52.1W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 52.1W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 28.4N 52.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 29.2N 52.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 30.6N 52.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 32.7N 52.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.2N 52.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 300300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/291751ZAUG2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 11.9N 154.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 154.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 13.1N 154.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 15.0N 154.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 17.4N 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.8N 151.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 24.1N 146.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 28.0N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 30.0N 137.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 154.7E. 30AUG23.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
583 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 300000Z IS 1004 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z.
REFER TO SUPER TYPHOON 09W (SAOLA) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (HAIKUI) WARNINGS
(WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 291800).
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED REF A AND AMPN LINE IN HEADER.
ADDED LINE 2. //
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 300246
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 29 2023

The depression has lost some organization since this morning. Only a
few disorganized showers are present to the east of the depression's
slightly elongated surface wind field. The initial intensity remains
30 kt, but this is higher than 00Z Dvorak estimates from TAFB or
SAB. An ASCAT-B pass just missed the center of the depression, but
did not show any indication of winds higher than about 25 kt in the
eastern portion of the depression's wind field, so its possible the
NHC intensity analysis is generous.

The depression has moved erratically since it formed, with its
recent movement estimated near 285/2 kt. Continued meandering is
likely tonight, but the cyclone should begin to lift slowly
northward by tomorrow, moving in low-level steering currents between
Hurricane Franklin and a ridge over the central Atlantic. The latest
NHC forecast is a little slower than the previous, remaining close
to the multi-model track consensus.

It's still possible that the depression could briefly organize
enough deep convection to become a tropical storm. However, this
does not appear to be the most likely scenario anymore and it is
not supported by any dynamical models. Upper-level outflow from
Franklin should cause the depression to become a post-tropical
remnant low within about 2 days, if not sooner, and most models
forecast it will dissipate within the next 2-3 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 28.2N 52.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 28.6N 52.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 29.4N 53.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 30.4N 53.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 32.4N 52.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 300246
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 29 2023

...DEPRESSION WANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 52.4W
ABOUT 790 MI...1275 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 52.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h).
A meandering northward motion is expected for the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
While it is possible the depression could briefly become a tropical
storm, only small fluctuations in intensity are expected. The
system is forecast to become a remnant low in a couple of days, but
it could happen sooner.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 300245
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112023
0300 UTC WED AUG 30 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 52.4W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 52.4W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 52.3W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 28.6N 52.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 29.4N 53.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 30.4N 53.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 32.4N 52.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.2N 52.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 292038
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
500 PM AST Tue Aug 29 2023

The center of the depression is exposed this afternoon. Its
associated convection remains displaced over the eastern portion of
the circulation by westerly shear. Since the satellite presentation
has not improved since the earlier ASCAT retrievals, the initial
intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory.

Visible and microwave images indicate the depression has moved
little since this morning, and it appears to be currently drifting
north-northwestward at 345/2 kt within weak steering currents. A
ridge to the north of the depression is forecast to slide eastward
through midweek, which should allow the cyclone to gradually turn
northward and north-northeastward as it accelerates within
deepening southerly flow ahead of Hurricane Franklin. The updated
NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly westward in agreement
within the latest multi-model consensus aids.

There is a brief window during the next day or so where the models
suggest the shear could decrease enough to allow the depression to
strengthen into a tropical storm. Afterwards, upper-level outflow
from Franklin will likely strip away its convection and inhibit any
further intensification. The depression is forecast to become
post-tropical shortly before it becomes absorbed in about 72 h by
the broader circulation associated with Franklin.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 28.2N 51.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 28.6N 52.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 29.4N 52.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 30.4N 52.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 32.0N 52.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 01/0600Z 34.0N 51.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 292037
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
500 PM AST Tue Aug 29 2023

...DEPRESSION DRIFTS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 51.8W
ABOUT 825 MI...1325 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 51.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h).
This general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A
gradual turn toward the north and north-northeast at a slightly
faster forward speed is expected on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so, and
the depression could become a tropical storm on Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 292037
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112023
2100 UTC TUE AUG 29 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 51.8W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 51.8W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 51.7W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 28.6N 52.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 29.4N 52.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 30.4N 52.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 32.0N 52.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 34.0N 51.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.2N 51.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 291448
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 29 2023

Visible satellite imagery and recent scatterometer data indicate
that the area of low pressure over the central subtropical Atlantic
has become better defined. Deep convection associated with the
system has persisted since yesterday, but it is located over the
eastern side of the circulation due to moderate westerly shear. The
ASCAT data revealed believable peak winds of around 30 kt, and that
is the basis for the initial intensity for this advisory. Guidance
suggests that the shear could decrease slightly in the short term
which could allow for some slight strengthening. The NHC forecast
follows that scenario and calls for the depression to become a
tropical storm within the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, the
shear is forecast to increase markedly and no additional
strengthening is indicated. By 72 hours, the system is forecast to
become post-tropical, and dissipation is indicated by 96 hours.
Both of those events could occur sooner than indicated below.

The depression is currently moving slowly northward or 360/2 kt. A
slow north-northwestward to northward motion is forecast during the
day or so as a mid-level ridge currently to the north of the
depression slides eastward. After that time, a slightly faster
northward to north-northeastward motion is expected as the cyclone
is steered between the aforementioned ridge and Hurricane Franklin
to its west. The NHC forecast is between the HFIP corrected
consensus and the various multi-model consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 27.9N 51.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 28.3N 51.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 28.9N 52.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 29.7N 52.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 30.8N 52.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 32.5N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 35.0N 51.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 291447
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112023
1500 UTC TUE AUG 29 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 51.4W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 51.4W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 51.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 28.3N 51.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 28.9N 52.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 29.7N 52.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 30.8N 52.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 32.5N 52.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.0N 51.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.9N 51.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 291448
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 29 2023

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 51.4W
ABOUT 855 MI...1375 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 51.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A slightly
faster and generally northward motion is expected Wednesday and
Thursday.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained
winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight
strengthening is possible during the next day or so, and the
depression could become a tropical storm later today or tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>