Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for LISA-22
in Guatemala, Belize

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone LISA-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1000944
Name LISA-22
Glide number: TC-2022-000357-BLZ
From - To 30 Oct - 05 Nov
Exposed countries Guatemala, Belize
Exposed population 110 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 139 km/h Category 1
Maximum storm surge 1.1 m (03 Nov 02:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Guatemala)

GDACS Score

For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS NOAA 37 km/h 1.1 m n.a. 0.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF 140 km/h 0.4 m 443 mm 0.5
GFS 115 km/h 1.2 m 522 mm 0.5
ECMWF n.a n.a. n.a. n.a.
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.
Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
Satellite products
Analytical products
Belize, Guatemala, Mexico - Tropical Cyclone LISA (ECHO 02 Nov 2022)Wed, 02 Nov 2022 11:56

  • A new tropical cyclone named LISA formed over the Caribbean Sea on 30 October and started moving west toward the coast of Belize. On 2 November at 06.00 UTC its centre was located offshore approximately 310 km east of the coast of central Belize and 355 km east of the Capital Belmopan, with maximum sustained winds of 110 km/h (tropical storm).
  • On the forecast track, LISA is expected to continue moving west and it is forecast to make landfall over coastal central Belize on 2 November very late in the afternoon (UTC) with maximum sustained winds up to 135-140 km/h (Cat. 1 hurricane). After that it is forecast to weaken and to pass over northern Guatemala, northern Chiapas and Tabasco States (Mexico) on 3-4 November, as a tropical storm.
  • Over the next 24 hours, heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surge are forecast over the whole Belize, northern Guatemala, north-eaastern Chiapas and Tabasco (Mexico). NOAA has issued a hurricane warning over these areas.
Belize, Guatemala, Mexico - Tropical Cyclone LISA (ECHO 03 Nov 2022)Thu, 03 Nov 2022 11:33

  • Tropical Cyclone LISA made landfall over the central-eastern coast of Belize, very close to Belize City as a hurricane category 1 and continued west towards north-eastern Guatemala. On 3 November at 06.00 UTC, its centre was located inland approximately 81 km north-east of Flores Town (Petén Region, north-eastern Guatemala), with maximum sustained winds of 80 km/h (tropical storm).
  • Lisa is expected to continue westward on 3 November across northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico. After that, it will turn northwest and is forecast to weaken, moving over the Bay of Campeche.
  • On 3-4 November, moderate to heavy rainfall and strong winds are forecast across Belize, northern Guatemala, the southern portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo, southern Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas, and far eastern Veracruz.
  • A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Belize and from Chetumal to Puerto Costa Maya in Mexico.
Belize, Guatemala, Mexico - Tropical cyclone LISA, update (ECHO 04 Nov 2022)Fri, 04 Nov 2022 11:01

  • After the landfall close to Belize City on 2 November very late in the evening (UTC), tropical cyclone LISA continued moving westward inland, weakening and passing over central Belize, northern Guatemala and Tabasco State (Mexico). On 4 November at 03.00 UTC its centre was located approximately 35 km south of Paraiso City (coastal area of Tabasco), with maximum sustained winds of 46 km/h (tropical depression).
  • Media report, as of 4 November, some damaged houses and power outages over the coastal area of central Belize. Temporarily closed airports and ports were also reported across the Country.
  • On 4-6 November, LISA is forecast to continue moving north-west, further weakening and entering in the southern Gulf of Mexico, off the coast of Tabasco and Veracruz States.
  • Over the next 24 hours, more rainfall is forecast across portions of southeastern Mexico. Currently, there are no warnings in effect by NOAA.
Detailed event map. European Union, 2022. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

Updates on volcanic activity (Smithsonian)

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Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EC-JRC (39), (2), DesInventar (1), WMO (1), INFORM (2),