Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for MANDOUS-22
in India, Sri Lanka
10 Dec 2022 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MANDOUS-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries India, Sri Lanka
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 122 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.8 m (08 Dec 20:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (India)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 122 km/h 0.8 m 683 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 122 km/h 0.8 m 683 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Dec 2022 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormIndia, Sri Lanka2,656,781
+
India223,803 
Sri Lanka2,432,978 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 07 Dec 2022 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 08 Dec 2022 00:00 86 -
- - - - - Sri Lanka
GREEN 3 08 Dec 2022 06:00 108 -
- - - - - Sri Lanka
GREEN 4 08 Dec 2022 12:00 122 -
- - - - - Sri Lanka
GREEN 5 08 Dec 2022 18:00 101 -
- - - - - India, Sri Lanka
GREEN 6 09 Dec 2022 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Sri Lanka, India
GREEN 7 09 Dec 2022 06:00 94 -
- - - - - Sri Lanka
GREEN 8 09 Dec 2022 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 09 Dec 2022 18:00 76 -
- - - - - India
GREEN 10 10 Dec 2022 00:00 58 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

683 mm

Up to 12.8 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Dec 2022 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmIndia15,640 
100-250 mmIndia, Sri Lanka12,818,401
+
India12,236,610 
Sri Lanka581,791 
50-100 mmIndia, Sri Lanka30,037,375
+
India28,924,306 
Sri Lanka1,113,068 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 07 Dec 2022 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 08 Dec 2022 00:00 228 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 08 Dec 2022 06:00 410 -
- - - - - Sri Lanka
Blue 4 08 Dec 2022 12:00 550 -
- - - - - Sri Lanka
Blue 5 08 Dec 2022 18:00 226 -
- - - - - Sri Lanka
Blue 6 09 Dec 2022 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 09 Dec 2022 06:00 131 30 thousand
- - - - India
Blue 8 09 Dec 2022 12:00 132 60 thousand
- - - - India
Blue 9 09 Dec 2022 18:00 117 8 thousand
- - - - India
Blue 10 10 Dec 2022 00:00 243 4 million
- - - - India




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.0m in Surat Thani, Ban Tha Krachai, Thailand. This height is estimated for 11/12/2022 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Dec 2022 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
2.0 - 3.0 mIndonesia195 
1.0 - 2.0 mThailand24 
0.5 - 1.0 mThailand, Indonesia15,801
+
Thailand11,446 
Indonesia4,355 
0.25 - 0.5 mIndia, Myanmar, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Indonesia14,116
+
India2,624 
Myanmar2,393 
Thailand7,049 
Sri Lanka402 
Indonesia1,646 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 10 Dec 2022 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
11/12/2022 00:00 Surat Thani, Ban Tha Krachai Thailand  1.0
11/12/2022 00:00 Chumphon, Ban Bang Man Thailand  1.0
11/12/2022 00:00 Chumphon, Ban Hin Sam Kon Thailand  1.0
11/12/2022 00:00 Chumphon, Ban Choeng Kra Thailand  1.0
11/12/2022 00:00 Prachuap Khiri Khan, Ban Chamuang Thailand  1.0
08/12/2022 06:00 Rakhine, Aindin Myanmar  0.3
08/12/2022 01:00 North Eastern, Ammanthanaveli Sri Lanka  0.3
08/12/2022 02:00 Andhra Pradesh, Pakala India  0.3
08/12/2022 09:00 Orissa, Chandipur India  0.3
08/12/2022 01:00 North Eastern, Brynthuraichenai Sri Lanka  0.2
08/12/2022 06:00 Chittagong, Jaliapara Bangladesh  0.2
08/12/2022 02:00 Andhra Pradesh, Ullapalem India  0.2
08/12/2022 07:00 West Bengal, Bijavbati India  0.2
08/12/2022 06:00 Rakhine, Magyi Kyun Magyi-ywa Myanmar  0.2
08/12/2022 01:00 Tamil Nadu, Kalapettai India  0.2
08/12/2022 01:00 Tamil Nadu, Marakkanam India  0.2
08/12/2022 07:00 Ayeyarwaddy, Seikkyi Myanmar  0.2
08/12/2022 02:00 North Eastern, Point Pedro Sri Lanka  0.2
08/12/2022 06:00 Rakhine, Ye Kyun Taung-ywa Myanmar  0.2
08/12/2022 12:00 Jharkhand, Hukitala India  0.2
08/12/2022 12:00 Chittagong, Kutubdia Island Lemsikhali Bangladesh  0.2
08/12/2022 07:00 Rakhine, Taik Kyun Taikkyua Myanmar  0.2
09/12/2022 07:00 Tanintharyi, Kanmaw Kyun Bemagyauk Ywa Myanmar  0.2
08/12/2022 12:00 West Bengal, Gangra India  0.2
08/12/2022 14:00 Tamil Nadu, Thoothukkudi India  0.1
09/12/2022 07:00 Tanintharyi, Kanmaw Kyun Mawgaungdon Ywa Myanmar  0.1
08/12/2022 06:00 Ayeyarwaddy, Saluzeik Myanmar  0.1
08/12/2022 12:00 Chittagong, Kutubdia Island Dhurung Bangladesh  0.1
08/12/2022 20:00 Tanintharyi, Tawbyagyi Myanmar  0.1
08/12/2022 13:00 Ayeyarwaddy, Dawnvein Myanmar  0.1
08/12/2022 05:00 Rakhine, Mawyen Myanmar  0.1
08/12/2022 02:00 Andhra Pradesh, Vatturupallepalem India  0.1
08/12/2022 08:00 Barisal, Char Bagala Bangladesh  0.1
08/12/2022 14:00 North Eastern, Panama Sri Lanka  0.1
08/12/2022 21:00 Tanintharyi, Kawthaung Myanmar  0.1
08/12/2022 08:00 Khulna, Dubla Bangladesh  0.1
08/12/2022 20:00 Tanintharyi, Ale-man Kyun Ale-hman Myanmar  0.1
10/12/2022 16:00 Aceh, Pulau (Simalur) Simeulue Ballasetas Indonesia  0.1
08/12/2022 06:00 Ayeyarwaddy, Zibyugyaung Myanmar  0.1
08/12/2022 16:00 Mon, Kwanhla Myanmar  0.1
08/12/2022 06:00 Tamil Nadu, Kottaippattanam India  0.1
08/12/2022 21:00 Ranong, Ban Sin Hai Thailand  0.1
08/12/2022 06:00 Orissa, Puri India  0.1
08/12/2022 18:00 Barisal, Kanchanpur Bangladesh  0.1
08/12/2022 16:00 Orissa, Gopalpur India  0.1
08/12/2022 19:00 Krabi, Ban Khlong Sai Thailand  0.1
08/12/2022 09:00 Tamil Nadu, Kattumavadi India  0.1
08/12/2022 09:00 Andhra Pradesh, Pudimadaka India  0.1
08/12/2022 04:00 Rakhine, Sandawshin Myanmar  0.1
08/12/2022 13:00 Yangon, Ale-ywa Myanmar  0.1
08/12/2022 05:00 Rakhine, Tandin Myanmar  0.1
08/12/2022 16:00 Tamil Nadu, Pamban India  0.1
08/12/2022 13:00 Andhra Pradesh, Ammalapadu India  0.0