Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for TEN-23
Off-shore
20 Jan 2023 12 UTC
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Impact Single TC
  • GFS
  • HWRF
  • ECMWF
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone TEN-23 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries New Caledonia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 76 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.8 m (20 Jan 17:15 UTC)
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 76 km/h 0.8 m 370 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 76 km/h 0.8 m 370 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

76 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 20 Jan 2023 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormNew Caledonia830 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 20 Jan 2023 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 20 Jan 2023 12:00 76 -
- - - - - New Caledonia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 20 Jan 2023 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmPapua New Guinea, New Caledonia, Australia26,271
+
Papua New Guinea3,584 
New Caledonia22,291 
Australia394 
50-100 mmPapua New Guinea, Tuvalu, Solomon Islands, Fiji, New Caledonia, Australia547,656
+
Papua New Guinea313,951 
Tuvalu286 
Solomon Islands28 
Fiji36,777 
New Caledonia136,514 
Australia60,098 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 20 Jan 2023 00:00 264 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 20 Jan 2023 12:00 370 20 thousand
- - - - Papua New Guinea, Tuvalu, Solomon Islands, Fiji, New Caledonia, Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.8 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 20 Jan 2023 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
0.5 - 1.0 mNew Zealand1,293 
0.25 - 0.5 mPapua New Guinea, Fiji, Australia, New Zealand162,807
+
Papua New Guinea125,559 
Fiji2,055 
Australia17,770 
New Zealand17,421 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 20 Jan 2023 12:00 UTC