Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for FABIEN-23 in British Indian Ocean Territory from 14 May 2023 04:00 UTC to 21 May 2023 16:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FABIEN-23

in British Indian Ocean Territory

15 May 2023 12 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FABIEN-23 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	72 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (16 May 08:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (British Indian Ocean Territory)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	72 km/h	0.4 m	194 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	130 km/h	0.4 m	513 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

130 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 15 May 2023 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	13 May 2023 12:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	14 May 2023 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	14 May 2023 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	15 May 2023 00:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	15 May 2023 12:00	151	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 15 May 2023 12:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000
1	13 May 2023 12:00	186	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	14 May 2023 00:00	301	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	14 May 2023 12:00	158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	15 May 2023 00:00	282	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	15 May 2023 12:00	646	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Victoria, Seychelles. This height is estimated for 16 May 2023 08:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 15 May 2023 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	16 May 2023 08:15	Victoria	Seychelles	0.4
	16 May 2023 08:30	Anse Boileau	Seychelles	0.4
	16 May 2023 23:00	Anse Volbert Village	Seychelles	0.3
	16 May 2023 23:00	La Reunion	Seychelles	0.3
	16 May 2023 20:00	Saint-Antoine	Mauritius	0.2
	16 May 2023 20:00	Riviere du Rempart	Mauritius	0.2
	16 May 2023 19:45	Riche-en-Eau	Mauritius	0.2
	16 May 2023 19:45	Grande Reviere Sud Est	Mauritius	0.2
	16 May 2023 19:45	Maheboug	Mauritius	0.2
	16 May 2023 19:45	Saint-Leu	Reunion	0.2
	16 May 2023 19:45	Trois Bassins	Reunion	0.2
	16 May 2023 19:45	Saint-Paul	Reunion	0.2
	16 May 2023 19:45	Petite Ile	Reunion	0.2
	16 May 2023 19:45	Saint-Joseph	Reunion	0.2
	16 May 2023 19:45	Saint-Louis	Reunion	0.2
	16 May 2023 19:45	Saint-Pierre	Reunion	0.2
	16 May 2023 20:00	Trou aux Biches	Mauritius	0.2
	16 May 2023 19:45	Saint-Philippe	Reunion	0.2
	16 May 2023 19:45	Les Avirons	Reunion	0.2
	16 May 2023 19:45	Etang Sale	Reunion	0.2
	16 May 2023 19:45	Le Port	Reunion	0.2
	16 May 2023 20:15	La Possession	Reunion	0.2
	16 May 2023 20:00	Cascades	Reunion	0.2
	16 May 2023 19:45	Sainte-Rose	Reunion	0.2
	16 May 2023 19:45	Saint-Benoit	Reunion	0.2
	16 May 2023 20:15	Bras-Panon	Reunion	0.2
	16 May 2023 20:00	Choisy	Mauritius	0.2
	16 May 2023 20:00	Chemin Grenier	Mauritius	0.2
	16 May 2023 20:00	Souillac	Mauritius	0.2
	16 May 2023 20:00	Black River	Mauritius	0.2
	16 May 2023 20:15	Sainte-Suzanne	Reunion	0.2
	16 May 2023 20:15	Saint-Andre	Reunion	0.2
	16 May 2023 20:15	Saint-Marie	Reunion	0.2
	15 May 2023 18:30	La Ferme	Mauritius	0.2
	15 May 2023 18:30	Port Mathurin	Mauritius	0.2
	16 May 2023 19:45	Saint-Denis	Reunion	0.2
	16 May 2023 19:45	Port Louis	Mauritius	0.2
	16 May 2023 00:15	West Island	Cocos (Keeling) Islands	0.1
	17 May 2023 22:45	Point Marianne	British Indian Ocean Territory	0.1
	17 May 2023 22:45	East Point Plantation	British Indian Ocean Territory	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.