Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for SITRANG-22 in Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Bhutan from 23 Oct 2022 12:00 UTC to 24 Oct 2022 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for SITRANG-22

in Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Bhutan

24 Oct 2022 06 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SITRANG-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries	China, Nepal, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	72 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.8 m (24 Oct 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Bangladesh)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	72 km/h	0.8 m	201 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	97 km/h	1.4 m	407 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

97 km/h

Up to 10 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 24 Oct 2022 06:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	China, Nepal, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar	10,029,858	+
	China	3,727
	Nepal	256
	India	07
	Bangladesh	9,846,335
	Myanmar	179,531

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	23 Oct 2022 12:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	23 Oct 2022 18:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	24 Oct 2022 00:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	24 Oct 2022 06:00	79	-		-	-	-	-	-	China, Nepal, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 24 Oct 2022 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Bhutan, India, Bangladesh	683,975	+
	India	123,312
	Bhutan	5,939
	Bangladesh	554,723
100-250 mm	India, Bhutan, Myanmar, Bangladesh	24,443,741	+
	India	1,484,237
	Bhutan	116,715
	Bangladesh	22,755,257
	Myanmar	87,531
50-100 mm	India, China, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Myanmar	70,308,358	+
	India	11,204,434
	China	3,013
	Bhutan	85,940
	Bangladesh	57,690,179
	Myanmar	1,324,791

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	23 Oct 2022 12:00	208	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	23 Oct 2022 18:00	318	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	24 Oct 2022 00:00	251	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	24 Oct 2022 06:00	377	25.1 million				-	-	-	India, China, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Myanmar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.1m in Tanintharyi, Kanmaw Kyun Bemagyauk Ywa, Myanmar. This height is estimated for 25/10/2022 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 24 Oct 2022 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	25/10/2022 12:00	Tanintharyi, Kanmaw Kyun Bemagyauk Ywa	Myanmar	0.1
	25/10/2022 12:00	Tanintharyi, Kanmaw Kyun Mawgaungdon Ywa	Myanmar	0.1
	24/10/2022 03:00	Ben Tre, Ap An Thuan	Vietnam	0.1
	24/10/2022 04:00	Tra Vinh, Thanh Phong	Vietnam	0.1
	24/10/2022 05:00	Ben Tre, Thoi Thuan	Vietnam	0.1
	26/10/2022 07:00	Aceh, Pulau (Simalur) Simeulue Ballasetas	Indonesia	0.1
	23/10/2022 16:00	Pahang, Kampong Merchong	Malaysia	0.1
	23/10/2022 17:00	Johor, Kampung Mawar	Malaysia	0.0
	23/10/2022 15:00	Pahang, Kuala Pahang	Malaysia	0.0
	23/10/2022 14:00	Pahang, Balok	Malaysia	0.0
	24/10/2022 11:00	Koh Kong, Bang Krassop	Cambodia	0.0
	24/10/2022 14:00	Surat Thani, Ban Tha Krachai	Thailand	0.0
	23/10/2022 13:00	Terengganu, Kijal	Malaysia	0.0
	23/10/2022 21:00	Ca Mau, Xom Rach Tau	Vietnam	0.0
	24/10/2022 17:00	Phetchaburi, Ban Pak Khlong	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 17:00	Phetchaburi, Ban Hua Hin	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 12:00	Chumphon, Ban Bang Man	Thailand	0.0
	23/10/2022 17:00	Johor, Pulau Sibu Kampong Lama	Malaysia	0.0
	24/10/2022 12:00	Chumphon, Ban Hin Sam Kon	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 13:00	Trat, Ban Ao Cho	Thailand	0.0
	23/10/2022 16:00	Johor, Pulau Tioman Kampong Mokut	Malaysia	0.0
	24/10/2022 13:00	Trat, Ban Pak Khlong Tha Luan	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 17:00	Phetchaburi, Ban Huai Sai Tai	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 17:00	Phetchaburi, Ban Bang Gwai	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 10:00	Songkhla, Ban Hlem Son	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 10:00	Songkhla, Songkhla	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 00:00	Terengganu, Kampong Bidong Laut	Malaysia	0.0
	24/10/2022 17:00	Prachuap Khiri Khan, Hua Hin	Thailand	0.0
	23/10/2022 16:00	Johor, Pulau Pemanggil Kampong Buau	Malaysia	0.0
	24/10/2022 12:00	Trat, Ko Mak Ban Ao Fat	Thailand	0.0
	23/10/2022 14:00	Terengganu, Telok Bedara	Malaysia	0.0
	23/10/2022 23:00	Terengganu, Marang	Malaysia	0.0
	24/10/2022 03:00	Pattani, Kampong Nam Bau	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 10:00	Nakhon Si Thammarat, Ban Tha Sala	Thailand	0.0
	23/10/2022 16:00	Johor, Pulau Aur Kampong Kekabu	Malaysia	0.0
	23/10/2022 16:00	Johor, Pulau Aur Kampong Palas	Malaysia	0.0
	24/10/2022 17:00	Chon Buri, Ko Si Chang Ban Si Racha	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 12:00	Chumphon, Ban Choeng Kra	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 12:00	Nakhon Si Thammarat, Ko Samui Ban Plai Laem	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 09:00	Songkhla, Ban Map Bua	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 16:00	Rayong, Ban Ko Kok	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 16:00	Chon Buri, Sattahip	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 16:00	Chon Buri, Ban Chong Samae San	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 15:00	Rayong, Ban Phra La	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 15:00	Prachuap Khiri Khan, Dhungnoi	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 16:00	Rayong, Ban Nong Mapring	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 12:00	Nakhon Si Thammarat, Ko Samui Ban Le	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 16:00	Prachuap Khiri Khan, Ban Bo Nok	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 12:00	Chanthaburi, Ban Ta Lian	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 15:00	Prachuap Khiri Khan, Ban Wa Thon	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 16:00	Prachuap Khiri Khan, Ban Chamuang	Thailand	0.0

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.