Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ELLIE-22
in Australia
22 Dec 2022 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELLIE-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Indonesia, Australia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 68 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (23 Dec 12:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 68 km/h 0.6 m 146 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 72 km/h 0.5 m 548 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

72 km/h

Up to 220 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Dec 2022 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormIndonesia, Australia217,632
+
Indonesia214,568 
Australia3,063 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 22 Dec 2022 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 22 Dec 2022 12:00 79 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Australia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Dec 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmIndonesia1,997,033 
100-250 mmIndonesia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor, Australia10,667,060
+
Indonesia10,582,571 
Papua New Guinea201 
East Timor37,498 
Australia46,788 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor, Australia15,524,719
+
Indonesia14,363,290 
Papua New Guinea363,307 
East Timor681,978 
Australia116,142 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 22 Dec 2022 06:00 133 Few people
- - - - Papua New Guinea, Australia
Blue 2 22 Dec 2022 12:00 388 12.7 million
- - - Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor, Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in South Australia, Port Clinton, Australia. This height is estimated for 22/12/2022 06:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 22 Dec 2022 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
22/12/2022 06:00 South Australia, Port Clinton Australia  0.2
22/12/2022 10:00 Northern Territory, Gribble Settlement Australia  0.2
22/12/2022 21:00 Northern Territory, Numbulwar Australia  0.2
22/12/2022 20:00 Kalimantan Tengah, Borneo Bapuju Indonesia  0.2
23/12/2022 09:00 Queensland, Dauan Island Dauan Australia  0.1
25/12/2022 03:00 Western, Wabuda Island Gesco Papua New Guinea  0.1
24/12/2022 01:00 Western, Jara Papua New Guinea  0.1
25/12/2022 02:00 Western, Dibiri Island Maipani Papua New Guinea  0.1
23/12/2022 02:00 South Australia, Port Neill Australia  0.1
25/12/2022 02:00 Gulf, Veraibari Papua New Guinea  0.1
25/12/2022 03:00 Western, Wabuda Island Dameramuda Papua New Guinea  0.1
25/12/2022 02:00 Gulf, Avioua Papua New Guinea  0.1
25/12/2022 05:00 Western, Kadawa Papua New Guinea  0.1
25/12/2022 06:00 Western, Mabaduan Papua New Guinea  0.1
25/12/2022 00:00 Western, Aibinio Island Oromosapuo Papua New Guinea  0.1
23/12/2022 04:00 Western Australia, Lynton Australia  0.1
25/12/2022 02:00 Gulf, Mira Papua New Guinea  0.1
24/12/2022 23:00 Western, Parama Island Parama Papua New Guinea  0.1
25/12/2022 06:00 Western, Katatai Papua New Guinea  0.1
24/12/2022 09:00 Queensland, Turtle Head Island Ok Village Australia  0.1
24/12/2022 23:00 Western, Sui Papua New Guinea  0.1
23/12/2022 01:00 Kalimantan Selatan, Borneo Pagatan Indonesia  0.1
24/12/2022 08:00 Queensland, Hammond Island Port Kennedy Australia  0.1
22/12/2022 07:00 South Australia, Edithburgh Australia  0.1
25/12/2022 01:00 Gulf, Vailala Hiloi Papua New Guinea  0.1
25/12/2022 01:00 Gulf, Vailala East Papua New Guinea  0.1
25/12/2022 01:00 Gulf, Kea Kea Papua New Guinea  0.1
25/12/2022 01:00 Gulf, Ovahuhu Papua New Guinea  0.1
25/12/2022 03:00 Queensland, Wonga Australia  0.1
22/12/2022 20:00 Kalimantan Selatan, Borneo Boenati Indonesia  0.1
24/12/2022 04:00 Western Australia, Useless Loop Australia  0.0