Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CHENESO-23
in Madagascar
23 Jan 2023 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHENESO-23 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 65 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (23 Jan 04:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 65 km/h 0.7 m 220 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 104 km/h 0.7 m 1041 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

104 km/h

Up to 1 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Jan 2023 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar1,330 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jan 2023 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 18 Jan 2023 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 90 -
- - - - - Zambia
GREEN 4 19 Jan 2023 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 19 Jan 2023 12:00 65 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 6 20 Jan 2023 00:00 - 2 million
Tanzania, Kenya, Seychelles, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Reunion, South Africa, Eswatini
GREEN 7 20 Jan 2023 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 21 Jan 2023 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 21 Jan 2023 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 22 Jan 2023 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 22 Jan 2023 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 23 Jan 2023 00:00 90 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Jan 2023 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMadagascar, Reunion511,694
+
Madagascar151,456 
Reunion360,238 
100-250 mmComoros, Madagascar, Mauritius, Reunion7,566,484
+
Comoros238,224 
Madagascar6,804,779 
Mauritius22,565 
Reunion500,915 
50-100 mmTanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Comoros, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, South Africa10,701,340
+
Tanzania1,474 
Zambia452,321 
Malawi556,232 
Comoros63,953 
Madagascar6,817,625 
Mozambique703,174 
Zimbabwe264,466 
Mauritius1,207,671 
South Africa634,422 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jan 2023 12:00 134 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 18 Jan 2023 00:00 174 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 356 -
- - - - - Seychelles, Madagascar, Reunion
Blue 4 19 Jan 2023 00:00 133 50 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 5 19 Jan 2023 12:00 156 230 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 6 20 Jan 2023 00:00 118 20 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 7 20 Jan 2023 12:00 135 20 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 8 21 Jan 2023 00:00 136 3 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 9 21 Jan 2023 12:00 193 30 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 10 22 Jan 2023 00:00 245 70 thousand
- - - - Comoros, Madagascar
Blue 11 22 Jan 2023 12:00 142 9 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 12 23 Jan 2023 00:00 684 8.1 million
- - - Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Comoros, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Reunion, South Africa




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Sofala, Machesse, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 20/01/2023 05:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 23 Jan 2023 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
20/01/2023 05:00 Sofala, Machesse Mozambique  0.2
20/01/2023 04:00 Sofala, Jonja Mozambique  0.2
20/01/2023 06:00 Zambezia, Chimuaza Mozambique  0.2
20/01/2023 06:00 Mahajanga, Mahabo Madagascar  0.2
20/01/2023 07:00 Mahajanga, Baly Madagascar  0.2
20/01/2023 05:00 Zambezia, Mulia Mozambique  0.2
20/01/2023 05:00 Zambezia, Tomodo Mozambique  0.2
20/01/2023 07:00 , Mutiba Mozambique  0.2
20/01/2023 03:00 Toamasina, Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
20/01/2023 05:00 , Mocambique Mozambique  0.2
20/01/2023 05:00 Mahajanga, Andamoty Madagascar  0.2
20/01/2023 03:00 , Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.2
20/01/2023 06:00 Nampula, Coropoa Mozambique  0.2
20/01/2023 11:00 Toamasina, Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 05:00 Toliara, Saint Augustin Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 05:00 Nampula, Mosengeri Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 08:00 Mahajanga, Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 07:00 , Cabaceira Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 07:00 Nampula, Miaola Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 07:00 Toamasina, Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 05:00 Nampula, Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.1
17/01/2023 22:00 , Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 12:00 Antsiranana, Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 11:00 Toamasina, Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 03:00 Toamasina, Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 09:00 Toamasina, Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
17/01/2023 22:00 Toamasina, Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 04:00 Pwani, Msindaji Tanzania  0.1
20/01/2023 05:00 Nampula, Macalopa Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 05:00 Cabo Delgado, Murrebue Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 05:00 Cabo Delgado, Ombauine Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 03:00 Toamasina, Marosiky Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 05:00 Cabo Delgado, Morumequina Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 05:00 Cabo Delgado, Bawala Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 11:00 Toamasina, Ambila-Lemaitso Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 02:00 Toamasina, Mahanoro Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 06:00 Toamasina, Tampina Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 11:00 Toamasina, Antetezambaro Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 00:00 Toamasina, Ampanotoamaizina Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 10:00 Toamasina, Ile Sainte-marie Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 06:00 , Tavari Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 06:00 Antsiranana, Antsorokaka Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 11:00 Fianarantsoa, Mangatsiatra Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 11:00 Toamasina, Tamatave Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 22:00 Fianarantsoa, Mananjary Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 00:00 Fianarantsoa, Manakara Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 04:00 , Pangane Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 11:00 Toamasina, Manompana Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 12:00 Toamasina, Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 04:00 Cabo Delgado, Ingoane Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 02:00 Fianarantsoa, Anakitaina Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 03:00 Fianarantsoa, Itenina Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 10:00 Toamasina, Manakalana Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 02:00 Inhambane, Inhassoro Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 03:00 Fianarantsoa, Loharano Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 11:00 Antsiranana, Antanjokatafana Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 11:00 Toamasina, Ile Sainte-marie Tanambe Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 02:00 Fianarantsoa, Manambotra Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 05:00 Coast, Mkwiro Kenya  0.1
20/01/2023 05:00 Kusini Unguja (Zanzibar Central/South), Zanzibar Dikoni Tanzania  0.1
20/01/2023 03:00 Fianarantsoa, Amboboka Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 04:00 Pwani, Magawa Tanzania  0.1
20/01/2023 05:00 Kaskazini-Unguja (Zanzibar North), Zanzibar Gazija Tanzania  0.1
20/01/2023 05:00 Pwani, Chole Tanzania  0.1
20/01/2023 05:00 Coast, Kisima Chande Kenya  0.1
20/01/2023 11:00 Toliara, Manambato Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 05:00 Tanga, Bomalandani Tanzania  0.1
20/01/2023 04:00 Inhambane, Ilha do Bazaruto Asneira Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 05:00 Kusini-Pemba (Pemba South), Pemba Kitwea Tanzania  0.1
20/01/2023 03:00 Toliara, Beaniky Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 11:00 Antsiranana, Vinanivao Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 05:00 Kaskazini-Unguja (Zanzibar North), Zanzibar Mdudu Mdogo Tanzania  0.1
20/01/2023 06:00 , Dzaoudzi Mayotte  0.1
20/01/2023 04:00 Tanga, Ushongo Mabaoni Tanzania  0.1
20/01/2023 05:00 Coast, Mtwapa Kenya  0.1
20/01/2023 05:00 Mjini-Magharibi (Zanzibar Urban/West), Zanzibar Fumba Tanzania  0.1
20/01/2023 05:00 Pwani, Kisiju Tanzania  0.1