Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CHENESO-23
in Madagascar
19 Jan 2023 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHENESO-23 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 65 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (19 Jan 17:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 65 km/h 0.7 m 156 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 104 km/h 0.7 m 1041 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

104 km/h

Up to 8 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 19 Jan 2023 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar7,653 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jan 2023 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 18 Jan 2023 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 90 -
- - - - - Zambia
GREEN 4 19 Jan 2023 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 19 Jan 2023 12:00 83 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 19 Jan 2023 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmMadagascar4,935 
250-500 mmMadagascar1,513,626 
100-250 mmComoros, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Reunion9,668,025
+
Malawi17,438 
Comoros206,650 
Madagascar8,964,107 
Mauritius395,525 
Reunion84,303 
50-100 mmTanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Comoros, Mozambique, Madagascar, Mayotte, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Reunion13,215,593
+
Tanzania194,644 
Zambia34,387 
Malawi2,949,243 
Comoros121,870 
Mozambique1,454,937 
Madagascar7,159,413 
Mayotte78,793 
Zimbabwe3,905 
Mauritius834,710 
Reunion383,687 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jan 2023 12:00 134 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 18 Jan 2023 00:00 174 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 356 -
- - - - - Seychelles, Madagascar, Reunion
Blue 4 19 Jan 2023 00:00 133 50 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 5 19 Jan 2023 12:00 741 11.2 million
- - Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Comoros, Mozambique, Madagascar, Mayotte, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Reunion




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Toamasina, Anantoraka, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 17/01/2023 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 19 Jan 2023 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
17/01/2023 12:00 Toamasina, Anantoraka Madagascar  0.3
17/01/2023 12:00 Toamasina, Maintimbato Madagascar  0.3
17/01/2023 16:00 Toamasina, Anoromby Madagascar  0.2
17/01/2023 16:00 Antsiranana, Rantranavona Madagascar  0.2
17/01/2023 16:00 Toamasina, Manakalana Madagascar  0.2
17/01/2023 18:00 Toamasina, Mahavanona Madagascar  0.2
17/01/2023 15:00 Toamasina, Manompana Madagascar  0.2
19/01/2023 16:00 Mahajanga, Mahabo Madagascar  0.2
17/01/2023 16:00 Toamasina, Ivontaka Madagascar  0.2
17/01/2023 16:00 Toamasina, Ile Sainte-marie Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.2
17/01/2023 19:00 , Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.2
17/01/2023 17:00 Toamasina, Ile Sainte-marie Tanambe Madagascar  0.2
17/01/2023 15:00 Antsiranana, Anjanozana Madagascar  0.1
17/01/2023 15:00 Antsiranana, Ampanavoana Madagascar  0.1
17/01/2023 12:00 Antsiranana, Antanjokatafana Madagascar  0.1
17/01/2023 12:00 Antsiranana, Ampaha Madagascar  0.1
17/01/2023 16:00 Antsiranana, Vinanivao Madagascar  0.1
17/01/2023 12:00 Antsiranana, Andrapengy Madagascar  0.1
17/01/2023 12:00 Antsiranana, Antalaha Madagascar  0.1
17/01/2023 21:00 Mahajanga, Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.1
17/01/2023 15:00 Toamasina, Ile Sainte-marie Vohilava Madagascar  0.1
17/01/2023 16:00 , Nosy Komba Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
17/01/2023 12:00 Antsiranana, Ampana Kanana Madagascar  0.1
17/01/2023 12:00 Antsiranana, Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.1
17/01/2023 16:00 Antsiranana, Andranira Madagascar  0.1
17/01/2023 18:00 Toamasina, Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 05:00 Mahajanga, Andamoty Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 00:00 Toamasina, Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 16:00 Sofala, Jonja Mozambique  0.1