Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CHENESO-23
in Madagascar
21 Jan 2023 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHENESO-23 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 79 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (21 Jan 04:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 79 km/h 0.6 m 136 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 104 km/h 0.7 m 1041 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

104 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 21 Jan 2023 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jan 2023 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 18 Jan 2023 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 90 -
- - - - - Zambia
GREEN 4 19 Jan 2023 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 19 Jan 2023 12:00 65 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 6 20 Jan 2023 00:00 - 2 million
Tanzania, Kenya, Seychelles, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Reunion, South Africa, Eswatini
GREEN 7 20 Jan 2023 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 21 Jan 2023 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Jan 2023 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMadagascar1,711,677 
100-250 mmComoros, Mozambique, Madagascar, Malawi, Reunion11,384,609
+
Malawi83,637 
Mozambique67,534 
Comoros241,677 
Madagascar10,976,589 
Reunion15,171 
50-100 mmTanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Mozambique, Comoros, Mayotte, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Reunion12,961,378
+
Tanzania186,193 
Malawi3,555,704 
Zambia585,666 
Mozambique1,666,522 
Comoros138,012 
Mayotte64,306 
Madagascar6,506,080 
Zimbabwe11,813 
Mauritius40,574 
Reunion206,502 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jan 2023 12:00 134 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 18 Jan 2023 00:00 174 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 356 -
- - - - - Seychelles, Madagascar, Reunion
Blue 4 19 Jan 2023 00:00 133 50 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 5 19 Jan 2023 12:00 156 230 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 6 20 Jan 2023 00:00 118 20 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 7 20 Jan 2023 12:00 135 20 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 8 21 Jan 2023 00:00 459 13.1 million
- - - Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Mozambique, Comoros, Mayotte, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Reunion




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Mahajanga, Mahabo, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 19/01/2023 15:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 21 Jan 2023 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
19/01/2023 15:00 Mahajanga, Mahabo Madagascar  0.2
20/01/2023 04:00 Sofala, Jonja Mozambique  0.2
20/01/2023 03:00 Toamasina, Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
20/01/2023 04:00 Sofala, Machesse Mozambique  0.2
20/01/2023 02:00 Zambezia, Chimuaza Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 08:00 Mahajanga, Baly Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 08:00 Mahajanga, Andamoty Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 03:00 , Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 01:00 Zambezia, Tomodo Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 03:00 Toliara, Saint Augustin Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 01:00 , Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 01:00 Zambezia, Mulia Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 03:00 Mahajanga, Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 07:00 , Mocambique Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 07:00 Nampula, Miaola Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 03:00 Pwani, Msindaji Tanzania  0.1
19/01/2023 22:00 Toamasina, Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 22:00 Toamasina, Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 03:00 Toamasina, Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 04:00 Nampula, Coropoa Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 06:00 Nampula, Mosengeri Mozambique  0.1
19/01/2023 23:00 Toamasina, Marosiky Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 22:00 Toamasina, Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 03:00 Toamasina, Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 07:00 , Cabaceira Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 03:00 Toamasina, Mahanoro Madagascar  0.1