Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for LISA-22 in Guatemala, Belize from 30 Oct 2022 21:00 UTC to 05 Nov 2022 15:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for LISA-22

in Guatemala, Belize

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LISA-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Belize
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	94 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (02 Nov 22:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Guatemala)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	94 km/h	0.5 m	150 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	115 km/h	1.2 m	522 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

115 km/h

Up to 10 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Nov 2022 18:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Belize	14,126

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	30 Oct 2022 18:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	31 Oct 2022 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	31 Oct 2022 06:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	31 Oct 2022 12:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	31 Oct 2022 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	01 Nov 2022 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	01 Nov 2022 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	01 Nov 2022 12:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	01 Nov 2022 18:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	02 Nov 2022 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	02 Nov 2022 06:00	104	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	02 Nov 2022 12:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	02 Nov 2022 18:00	94	-		-	-	-	-	-	Belize

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Nov 2022 18:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Colombia	387,998
100-250 mm	Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador, Colombia, Panama, Venezuela, Guyana, Brazil	3,183,289	+
	Mexico	92,859
	Belize	183,324
	Guatemala	6,901
	El Salvador	291,402
	Colombia	1,800,367
	Venezuela	779,240
	Panama	21,267
	Guyana	7,900
	Brazil	24
50-100 mm	United States, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Martinique, El Salvador, Saint Lucia, Colombia, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica, Panama, Guyana, Brazil, Suriname	22,084,858	+
	United States	1,011,369
	Dominican Republic	960,620
	Mexico	3,100,270
	Belize	112,873
	Guatemala	1,462,493
	Honduras	506,006
	Nicaragua	176,119
	Martinique	1,263
	El Salvador	905,990
	Saint Lucia	22,691
	Colombia	9,679,358
	Venezuela	3,091,123
	Trinidad and Tobago	347,184
	Costa Rica	20,864
	Panama	639,936
	Guyana	23,334
	Brazil	23,355

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	30 Oct 2022 18:00	123	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	31 Oct 2022 00:00	51	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	31 Oct 2022 06:00	138	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	31 Oct 2022 12:00	96	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	31 Oct 2022 18:00	21	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	01 Nov 2022 00:00	48	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	01 Nov 2022 06:00	94	-		-	-	-	-	-	Venezuela
8	01 Nov 2022 12:00	140	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	01 Nov 2022 18:00	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	02 Nov 2022 00:00	89	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	02 Nov 2022 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	02 Nov 2022 12:00	155	-		-	-	-	-	-	Colombia
13	02 Nov 2022 18:00	503	3.6 million				-	-	-	United States, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Martinique, El Salvador, Saint Lucia, Colombia, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica, Panama, Guyana, Brazil, Suriname

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.5 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 02 Nov 2022 18:00 UTC

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.