Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for LISA-22
in Guatemala, Belize
31 Oct 2022 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LISA-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 54 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (31 Oct 23:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Guatemala)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 54 km/h 0.2 m 21 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 115 km/h 1.2 m 522 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

115 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 31 Oct 2022 18:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 30 Oct 2022 18:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 31 Oct 2022 00:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 31 Oct 2022 06:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 31 Oct 2022 12:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 31 Oct 2022 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Oct 2022 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmBelize, Honduras, Venezuela, Colombia218,093
+
Belize128,140 
Honduras3,991 
Venezuela70,730 
Colombia15,231 
50-100 mmMexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Colombia, Brazil8,729,172
+
Mexico73,329 
Belize134,891 
Guatemala294,560 
Honduras147,391 
Nicaragua14,605 
Venezuela6,377,184 
Colombia1,687,021 
Brazil188 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 30 Oct 2022 18:00 123 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 31 Oct 2022 00:00 51 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 31 Oct 2022 06:00 138 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 31 Oct 2022 12:00 96 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 31 Oct 2022 18:00 255 220 thousand
- - - - Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Colombia, Brazil




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Zulia, San Rafael, Venezuela. This height is estimated for 02/11/2022 03:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 31 Oct 2022 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
02/11/2022 03:00 Zulia, San Rafael Venezuela  0.4
02/11/2022 03:00 Zulia, Las Cabimas Venezuela  0.4
01/11/2022 08:00 Zulia, Sichipes Venezuela  0.3
02/11/2022 00:00 Zulia, Caimare Chico Venezuela  0.3
02/11/2022 00:00 Zulia, Boca Paijana Venezuela  0.3
02/11/2022 00:00 Zulia, Puerto Cardoncito Venezuela  0.3
02/11/2022 03:00 Essequibo Islands-West Demerara, Leguan I Guyana  0.2
02/11/2022 03:00 Essequibo Islands-West Demerara, Caledonia Guyana  0.2
01/11/2022 08:00 Zulia, Tapuli Venezuela  0.2
01/11/2022 07:00 La Guajira, Castilletes Colombia  0.2
01/11/2022 07:00 La Guajira, Puerto Lopez Colombia  0.2
31/10/2022 15:00 Gracias a Dios, Irlaya Honduras  0.2
31/10/2022 15:00 Gracias a Dios, Cabo Gracias a Dios Honduras  0.2
01/11/2022 08:00 La Guajira, Puerto Ingles Colombia  0.2
01/11/2022 03:00 Texas, North Beach United States  0.2
31/10/2022 14:00 Atlantico Norte, Cabo Gracias Viejo Nicaragua  0.2
02/11/2022 04:00 Pomeroon-Supernaam, Bounty Hall Guyana  0.1
02/11/2022 14:00 Atlantico Norte, Tahuantla Nicaragua  0.1
02/11/2022 14:00 Atlantico Norte, Puerto Isabel Nicaragua  0.1
02/11/2022 14:00 Atlantico Sur, Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua  0.1
02/11/2022 14:00 Atlantico Norte, Tuapi Nicaragua  0.1
02/11/2022 14:00 Atlantico Sur, Barra de Rio Grande Nicaragua  0.1
02/11/2022 14:00 Atlantico Norte, Coco Haulover Nicaragua  0.1
02/11/2022 14:00 Atlantico Norte, Huahua Nicaragua  0.1
31/10/2022 13:00 Gracias a Dios, Pusuaya Honduras  0.1
01/11/2022 01:00 Campeche, Isla del Carmen Paso Real Mexico  0.1
02/11/2022 17:00 Falcon, Los Taques Venezuela  0.1
31/10/2022 21:00 Corozal, Corozal Belize  0.1
31/10/2022 20:00 Quintana Roo, Calderita Mexico  0.1
02/11/2022 18:00 Falcon, Guasare Abajo Venezuela  0.1
02/11/2022 17:00 Bocas del Toro, Quebrada Jones Panama  0.1
02/11/2022 16:00 La Guajira, Punta Espada Colombia  0.1
02/11/2022 03:00 Sucre, Islas de San Bernardo El Islote Colombia  0.1
02/11/2022 16:00 Pinar del Rio, El Hondon Cuba  0.1
02/11/2022 03:00 Bolivar, Baru Colombia  0.1
31/10/2022 19:00 Sucre, Ariota Venezuela  0.1
31/10/2022 16:00 Texas, El Campo Club Community United States  0.1
01/11/2022 12:00 Texas, Seabrook United States  0.1
31/10/2022 20:00 Corozal, Santeneja Belize  0.1
02/11/2022 02:00 Magdalena, Puebloviejo Colombia  0.1
02/11/2022 02:00 Magdalena, Tasajera Colombia  0.1
02/11/2022 02:00 Magdalena, Palmira Colombia  0.1
02/11/2022 03:00 Cordoba, Caserio Puerto Limon Colombia  0.1
02/11/2022 03:00 Antioquia, Puerto Barrios Colombia  0.1
02/11/2022 17:00 Falcon, Boca de Ricoa Venezuela  0.1
02/11/2022 17:00 Falcon, Azubure Venezuela  0.1
02/11/2022 16:00 Falcon, Tucacas Venezuela  0.1
02/11/2022 16:00 Falcon, Los Corales Venezuela  0.1
02/11/2022 17:00 Falcon, Las Delicias Venezuela  0.1
31/10/2022 08:00 Tamaulipas, El Mezquite Mexico  0.1
02/11/2022 16:00 Atlantico Sur, Barra Punta Gorda Nicaragua  0.1
02/11/2022 02:00 Kuna Yala (San Blas), Playon Chico Panama  0.1
31/10/2022 00:00 Atlantico Sur, Amerisco Nicaragua  0.1
02/11/2022 02:00 Choco, Trigana Colombia  0.1
02/11/2022 02:00 Choco, Villa Claret Colombia  0.1
31/10/2022 01:00 Bocas del Toro, Tobobe Panama  0.1
02/11/2022 14:00 Valle, Puerto Grande Honduras  0.1
02/11/2022 14:00 Valle, El Moray Honduras  0.1
02/11/2022 17:00 Falcon, El Manglar Venezuela  0.1
02/11/2022 02:00 Colon, El Porvenir Panama  0.1
31/10/2022 16:00 Gracias a Dios, Huarta Honduras  0.1
02/11/2022 17:00 Miranda, Carenero Venezuela  0.1
31/10/2022 21:00 Saint Patrick, Fullarton Trinidad and Tobago  0.1
02/11/2022 02:00 Bocas del Toro, Macca Bite Panama  0.1
02/11/2022 17:00 , Curacao Newport Netherlands Antilles  0.1
31/10/2022 14:00 Gracias a Dios, Barra del Patuca Honduras  0.1
31/10/2022 16:00 Gracias a Dios, Tusi Cocal Honduras  0.1
02/11/2022 02:00 Colon, Piedra de Galera Panama  0.1
02/11/2022 02:00 Colon, Tubuala Panama  0.1
02/11/2022 14:00 Texas, Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.1
02/11/2022 02:00 Kuna Yala (San Blas), Carreto Panama  0.1
02/11/2022 02:00 Bocas del Toro, Loma Partida Panama  0.1
01/11/2022 18:00 Chiriqui, Batipa Panama  0.1
02/11/2022 02:00 Bocas del Toro, Lennond Panama  0.1
02/11/2022 02:00 Bocas del Toro, Carretera Bocas Panama  0.1
02/11/2022 02:00 Bocas del Toro, Bocas del Toro Panama  0.1
02/11/2022 02:00 Bocas del Toro, Big Creek Panama  0.1
02/11/2022 02:00 Bocas del Toro, Caremero Panama  0.1
31/10/2022 16:00 Gracias a Dios, Rio Platano Honduras  0.1
02/11/2022 17:00 , Bonaire Kralendijk Netherlands Antilles  0.1
02/11/2022 17:00 , El Roque Venezuela  0.1
02/11/2022 06:00 Valle, El Ajustillo Honduras  0.1
02/11/2022 06:00 Valle, Las Piletas Honduras  0.1
01/11/2022 13:00 Belize, Belize City Belize  0.1
02/11/2022 14:00 Atlantico Sur, Islas del Maiz (Corn Islands) Corn Island Nicaragua  0.1
02/11/2022 02:00 Bocas del Toro, Ensenada de Punta Avispa Panama  0.1
02/11/2022 16:00 Saint Andrew, Port Royal Jamaica  0.1
02/11/2022 18:00 Panama, Ciudad de Panama Panama  0.1
02/11/2022 18:00 Panama, Juan Dias Panama  0.1
02/11/2022 02:00 Atlantico Sur, Monkey Point Nicaragua  0.1
02/11/2022 02:00 Limon, Barra Costa Rica  0.1
02/11/2022 02:00 Limon, Colorado Costa Rica  0.1
01/11/2022 09:00 Texas, Cedar Point United States  0.1
31/10/2022 22:00 Florida, Feather Sound United States  0.1
31/10/2022 22:00 Florida, Live Oak Island United States  0.1
01/11/2022 05:00 Louisiana, Cameron United States  0.1
30/10/2022 18:00 Florida, Bay View United States  0.0
31/10/2022 13:00 Louisiana, Cypremort Point United States  0.0
02/11/2022 12:00 Florida, Nine Mile United States  0.0
31/10/2022 20:00 Alabama, Bellefontaine United States  0.0
31/10/2022 20:00 Alabama, Bayleys Corner United States  0.0
31/10/2022 20:00 Alabama, Mon Louis United States  0.0
31/10/2022 12:00 Florida, Plantation Key Plantation Key United States  0.0