Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for LISA-22 in Guatemala, Belize from 30 Oct 2022 21:00 UTC to 05 Nov 2022 15:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for LISA-22

in Guatemala, Belize

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LISA-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Honduras
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	50 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (31 Oct 08:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Guatemala)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	50 km/h	0.3 m	138 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	115 km/h	1.2 m	522 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

115 km/h

Up to 1 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Oct 2022 06:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Honduras	1,053

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	30 Oct 2022 18:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	31 Oct 2022 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	31 Oct 2022 06:00	90	-		-	-	-	-	-	Honduras

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Oct 2022 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Belize, Honduras, Venezuela, Colombia	314,266	+
	Belize	106,129
	Honduras	01
	Colombia	136,640
	Venezuela	71,495
50-100 mm	Cuba, Haiti, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Belize, Honduras, Colombia, Barbados, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Guyana, Brazil	6,948,929	+
	Cuba	22
	Haiti	7,016
	Dominican Republic	6,389
	Mexico	1,888
	Belize	63,671
	Honduras	309,645
	Colombia	919,796
	Barbados	34,515
	Venezuela	5,517,919
	Trinidad and Tobago	84,803
	Guyana	04
	Brazil	3,256

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	30 Oct 2022 18:00	123	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	31 Oct 2022 00:00	51	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	31 Oct 2022 06:00	228	310 thousand			-	-	-	-	Cuba, Haiti, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Belize, Honduras, Colombia, Barbados, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Guyana, Brazil

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Zulia, San Rafael, Venezuela. This height is estimated for 02/11/2022 15:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 31 Oct 2022 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	02/11/2022 15:00	Zulia, San Rafael	Venezuela	0.4
	02/11/2022 15:00	Zulia, Las Cabimas	Venezuela	0.4
	01/11/2022 22:00	Zulia, Sichipes	Venezuela	0.3
	01/11/2022 21:00	Zulia, Caimare Chico	Venezuela	0.3
	01/11/2022 21:00	Zulia, Boca Paijana	Venezuela	0.3
	01/11/2022 21:00	Zulia, Puerto Cardoncito	Venezuela	0.3
	01/11/2022 16:00	Essequibo Islands-West Demerara, Leguan I	Guyana	0.3
	01/11/2022 15:00	Essequibo Islands-West Demerara, Caledonia	Guyana	0.3
	01/11/2022 20:00	Zulia, Tapuli	Venezuela	0.2
	01/11/2022 21:00	La Guajira, Castilletes	Colombia	0.2
	01/11/2022 15:00	Texas, North Beach	United States	0.2
	01/11/2022 15:00	Pomeroon-Supernaam, Bounty Hall	Guyana	0.2
	01/11/2022 21:00	La Guajira, Puerto Lopez	Colombia	0.2
	02/11/2022 15:00	Belize, Belize City	Belize	0.2
	01/11/2022 20:00	La Guajira, Puerto Ingles	Colombia	0.2
	31/10/2022 15:00	Gracias a Dios, Irlaya	Honduras	0.1
	31/10/2022 02:00	Atlantico Norte, Cabo Gracias Viejo	Nicaragua	0.1
	31/10/2022 15:00	Tamaulipas, El Mezquite	Mexico	0.1
	01/11/2022 14:00	Texas, Caruthers Cove Colonia	United States	0.1
	31/10/2022 02:00	Atlantico Norte, Tuapi	Nicaragua	0.1
	01/11/2022 01:00	Gracias a Dios, Pusuaya	Honduras	0.1
	31/10/2022 15:00	Gracias a Dios, Cabo Gracias a Dios	Honduras	0.1
	02/11/2022 14:00	Atlantico Norte, Coco Haulover	Nicaragua	0.1
	02/11/2022 14:00	Atlantico Norte, Tahuantla	Nicaragua	0.1
	02/11/2022 14:00	Atlantico Norte, Puerto Isabel	Nicaragua	0.1
	31/10/2022 13:00	Campeche, Isla del Carmen Paso Real	Mexico	0.1
	01/11/2022 13:00	Atlantico Sur, Sandy Bay Sirpi	Nicaragua	0.1
	01/11/2022 13:00	Atlantico Sur, Barra de Rio Grande	Nicaragua	0.1
	02/11/2022 15:00	Atlantico Norte, Huahua	Nicaragua	0.1
	31/10/2022 15:00	Magdalena, Puebloviejo	Colombia	0.1
	31/10/2022 15:00	Magdalena, Tasajera	Colombia	0.1
	31/10/2022 15:00	Magdalena, Palmira	Colombia	0.1
	02/11/2022 15:00	Sucre, Islas de San Bernardo El Islote	Colombia	0.1
	02/11/2022 13:00	Antioquia, Puerto Barrios	Colombia	0.1
	01/11/2022 09:00	Saint Patrick, Fullarton	Trinidad and Tobago	0.1
	02/11/2022 06:00	Sucre, Ariota	Venezuela	0.1
	01/11/2022 09:00	Falcon, Los Taques	Venezuela	0.1
	01/11/2022 07:00	La Guajira, Punta Espada	Colombia	0.1
	01/11/2022 14:00	Texas, El Campo Club Community	United States	0.1
	31/10/2022 20:00	Corozal, Corozal	Belize	0.1
	02/11/2022 15:00	Bolivar, Baru	Colombia	0.1
	01/11/2022 07:00	Falcon, Tucacas	Venezuela	0.1
	01/11/2022 07:00	Falcon, Los Corales	Venezuela	0.1
	01/11/2022 07:00	Falcon, Las Delicias	Venezuela	0.1
	01/11/2022 08:00	Nueva Esparta, Isla de Margarita Pampatar	Venezuela	0.1
	02/11/2022 14:00	Bocas del Toro, Quebrada Jones	Panama	0.1
	02/11/2022 15:00	Cordoba, Caserio Puerto Limon	Colombia	0.1
	02/11/2022 09:00	Valle, Puerto Grande	Honduras	0.1
	02/11/2022 09:00	Valle, El Moray	Honduras	0.1
	31/10/2022 20:00	Quintana Roo, Calderita	Mexico	0.1
	02/11/2022 12:00	Atlantico Sur, Barra Punta Gorda	Nicaragua	0.1
	02/11/2022 01:00	Islas de la Bahia, Isla de Roatan Santa Elena	Honduras	0.1
	02/11/2022 00:00	Islas de la Bahia, Isla de Guanaja Red Cliff	Honduras	0.1
	01/11/2022 13:00	Gracias a Dios, Barra del Patuca	Honduras	0.1
	01/11/2022 14:00	Gracias a Dios, Tusi Cocal	Honduras	0.1
	02/11/2022 06:00	Miranda, Carenero	Venezuela	0.1
	01/11/2022 14:00	Gracias a Dios, Rio Platano	Honduras	0.1
	31/10/2022 15:00	Bocas del Toro, Tobobe	Panama	0.1
	01/11/2022 14:00	Gracias a Dios, Huarta	Honduras	0.1
	02/11/2022 13:00	Bocas del Toro, Loma Partida	Panama	0.1
	31/10/2022 20:00	Corozal, Santeneja	Belize	0.1
	01/11/2022 14:00	Texas, Port Ingleside	United States	0.1
	31/10/2022 15:00	Bocas del Toro, Macca Bite	Panama	0.1
	31/10/2022 15:00	San Andres y Providencia, Isla de Providencia Morris Hill	Colombia	0.1
	31/10/2022 15:00	Atlantico Sur, Islas del Maiz (Corn Islands) Corn Island	Nicaragua	0.1
	02/11/2022 14:00	Choco, Trigana	Colombia	0.1
	02/11/2022 14:00	Choco, Villa Claret	Colombia	0.1
	02/11/2022 10:00	Florida, Live Oak Island	United States	0.1
	01/11/2022 11:00	Florida, Feather Sound	United States	0.1
	31/10/2022 12:00	Georgia, Raccoon Bluff	United States	0.1
	01/11/2022 17:00	Louisiana, Cameron	United States	0.1
	01/11/2022 08:00	Florida, Nine Mile	United States	0.0
	31/10/2022 09:00	Louisiana, Cocodrie	United States	0.0
	31/10/2022 12:00	Louisiana, Cypremort Point	United States	0.0
	31/10/2022 10:00	Florida, Plantation Key Plantation Key	United States	0.0

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.