Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for LISA-22
in Guatemala, Belize
03 Nov 2022 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LISA-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Bermuda
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 58 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (03 Nov 15:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Guatemala)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 58 km/h 0.3 m 143 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 115 km/h 1.2 m 522 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

115 km/h

Up to 60 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Nov 2022 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormBermuda62,001 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 30 Oct 2022 18:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 31 Oct 2022 00:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 31 Oct 2022 06:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 31 Oct 2022 12:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 31 Oct 2022 18:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 01 Nov 2022 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 01 Nov 2022 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 01 Nov 2022 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 01 Nov 2022 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 02 Nov 2022 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 02 Nov 2022 06:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 02 Nov 2022 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 02 Nov 2022 18:00 94 -
- - - - - Belize
GREEN 14 03 Nov 2022 00:00 97 -
- - - - - Belize
GREEN 15 03 Nov 2022 06:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 03 Nov 2022 12:00 76 -
- - - - - Bermuda
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Nov 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Venezuela, Colombia, Panama, Guyana6,011,023
+
Mexico728 
Guatemala607,703 
Honduras102 
El Salvador200,759 
Colombia4,128,684 
Venezuela1,007,436 
Panama65,044 
Guyana562 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Guadeloupe, Guatemala, Honduras, Martinique, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Saint Lucia, Colombia, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica, Panama, Guyana, Suriname, Brazil20,652,288
+
United States686,997 
Mexico2,384,655 
Dominican Republic229,448 
Puerto Rico04 
Guadeloupe135,909 
Guatemala5,902,093 
Honduras779,744 
Martinique345,185 
Nicaragua1,241 
El Salvador897,490 
Saint Lucia18,581 
Colombia6,325,144 
Venezuela2,097,118 
Trinidad and Tobago226,035 
Costa Rica147,395 
Panama455,221 
Guyana17,757 
Brazil2,263 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 30 Oct 2022 18:00 123 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 31 Oct 2022 00:00 51 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 31 Oct 2022 06:00 138 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 31 Oct 2022 12:00 96 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 31 Oct 2022 18:00 21 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 01 Nov 2022 00:00 48 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 01 Nov 2022 06:00 94 -
- - - - - Venezuela
Blue 8 01 Nov 2022 12:00 140 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 01 Nov 2022 18:00 47 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 02 Nov 2022 00:00 89 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 02 Nov 2022 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 02 Nov 2022 12:00 155 -
- - - - - Colombia
Blue 13 02 Nov 2022 18:00 150 110 thousand
- - - - Belize, Colombia
Blue 14 03 Nov 2022 00:00 104 1 thousand
- - - - Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Colombia, Venezuela
Blue 15 03 Nov 2022 06:00 79 -
- - - - - Colombia, Venezuela, Brazil
Blue 16 03 Nov 2022 12:00 394 6 million
- - - - United States, Mexico, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Guadeloupe, Guatemala, Honduras, Martinique, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Saint Lucia, Colombia, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica, Panama, Guyana, Suriname, Brazil




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.3 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 03 Nov 2022 12:00 UTC