Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for LISA-22
in Guatemala, Belize
31 Oct 2022 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LISA-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 50 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (31 Oct 13:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Guatemala)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 50 km/h 0.3 m 96 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 115 km/h 1.2 m 522 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

115 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 31 Oct 2022 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 30 Oct 2022 18:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 31 Oct 2022 00:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 31 Oct 2022 06:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 31 Oct 2022 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Oct 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmBelize, Guatemala, Venezuela, Colombia978,814
+
Belize3,583 
Guatemala3,031 
Colombia199,637 
Venezuela772,562 
50-100 mmMexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Colombia, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Guyana, Brazil10,125,843
+
Mexico65,628 
Belize174,571 
Guatemala75,237 
Honduras01 
Colombia2,978,279 
Nicaragua11,970 
Venezuela6,743,274 
Trinidad and Tobago74,785 
Guyana30 
Brazil2,063 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 30 Oct 2022 18:00 123 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 31 Oct 2022 00:00 51 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 31 Oct 2022 06:00 138 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 31 Oct 2022 12:00 180 980 thousand
- - - - Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Colombia, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Guyana, Brazil




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Zulia, San Rafael, Venezuela. This height is estimated for 02/11/2022 09:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 31 Oct 2022 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
02/11/2022 09:00 Zulia, San Rafael Venezuela  0.4
02/11/2022 09:00 Zulia, Las Cabimas Venezuela  0.4
01/11/2022 15:00 Zulia, Sichipes Venezuela  0.3
01/11/2022 15:00 Zulia, Caimare Chico Venezuela  0.3
01/11/2022 15:00 Zulia, Boca Paijana Venezuela  0.3
01/11/2022 15:00 Zulia, Puerto Cardoncito Venezuela  0.3
01/11/2022 08:00 Essequibo Islands-West Demerara, Leguan I Guyana  0.3
01/11/2022 08:00 Essequibo Islands-West Demerara, Caledonia Guyana  0.2
01/11/2022 14:00 Zulia, Tapuli Venezuela  0.2
01/11/2022 08:00 Texas, North Beach United States  0.2
01/11/2022 13:00 La Guajira, Castilletes Colombia  0.2
01/11/2022 13:00 La Guajira, Puerto Lopez Colombia  0.2
01/11/2022 00:00 La Guajira, Puerto Ingles Colombia  0.2
01/11/2022 07:00 Pomeroon-Supernaam, Bounty Hall Guyana  0.2
02/11/2022 08:00 Atlantico Norte, Coco Haulover Nicaragua  0.2
31/10/2022 09:00 Gracias a Dios, Irlaya Honduras  0.2
02/11/2022 08:00 Atlantico Norte, Cabo Gracias Viejo Nicaragua  0.2
02/11/2022 09:00 Atlantico Norte, Tuapi Nicaragua  0.2
02/11/2022 08:00 Atlantico Norte, Huahua Nicaragua  0.2
02/11/2022 08:00 Atlantico Norte, Tahuantla Nicaragua  0.1
02/11/2022 08:00 Atlantico Norte, Puerto Isabel Nicaragua  0.1
31/10/2022 09:00 Gracias a Dios, Cabo Gracias a Dios Honduras  0.1
31/10/2022 22:00 Texas, El Campo Club Community United States  0.1
01/11/2022 00:00 Falcon, Los Taques Venezuela  0.1
01/11/2022 07:00 Campeche, Isla del Carmen Paso Real Mexico  0.1
01/11/2022 08:00 Texas, Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.1
02/11/2022 08:00 Atlantico Sur, Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua  0.1
02/11/2022 08:00 Atlantico Sur, Barra de Rio Grande Nicaragua  0.1
01/11/2022 03:00 Corozal, Corozal Belize  0.1
01/11/2022 03:00 Quintana Roo, Calderita Mexico  0.1
01/11/2022 00:00 La Guajira, Punta Espada Colombia  0.1
01/11/2022 00:00 Gracias a Dios, Pusuaya Honduras  0.1
02/11/2022 09:00 Sucre, Islas de San Bernardo El Islote Colombia  0.1
31/10/2022 00:00 Tamaulipas, El Mezquite Mexico  0.1
02/11/2022 09:00 Bocas del Toro, Quebrada Jones Panama  0.1
02/11/2022 09:00 Bolivar, Baru Colombia  0.1
01/11/2022 03:00 Saint Patrick, Fullarton Trinidad and Tobago  0.1
31/10/2022 07:00 Magdalena, Puebloviejo Colombia  0.1
31/10/2022 07:00 Magdalena, Tasajera Colombia  0.1
31/10/2022 07:00 Magdalena, Palmira Colombia  0.1
02/11/2022 08:00 Cordoba, Caserio Puerto Limon Colombia  0.1
01/11/2022 03:00 Corozal, Santeneja Belize  0.1
01/11/2022 01:00 Falcon, Guasare Abajo Venezuela  0.1
02/11/2022 06:00 Antioquia, Puerto Barrios Colombia  0.1
02/11/2022 14:00 Chiriqui, Batipa Panama  0.1
31/10/2022 22:00 Bocas del Toro, Loma Partida Panama  0.1
01/11/2022 01:00 Falcon, Las Delicias Venezuela  0.1
31/10/2022 07:00 Bocas del Toro, Tobobe Panama  0.1
02/11/2022 07:00 Atlantico Sur, Barra Punta Gorda Nicaragua  0.1
31/10/2022 22:00 Sucre, Ariota Venezuela  0.1
01/11/2022 01:00 Falcon, Tucacas Venezuela  0.1
01/11/2022 01:00 Falcon, Los Corales Venezuela  0.1
02/11/2022 01:00 Miranda, Carenero Venezuela  0.1
31/10/2022 22:00 Kuna Yala (San Blas), Playon Chico Panama  0.1
01/11/2022 01:00 Nueva Esparta, Isla de Margarita Pampatar Venezuela  0.1
01/11/2022 04:00 Florida, Feather Sound United States  0.1
02/11/2022 04:00 Florida, Live Oak Island United States  0.1
31/10/2022 14:00 Louisiana, Cameron United States  0.0
02/11/2022 03:00 Florida, Nine Mile United States  0.0
01/11/2022 03:00 Louisiana, Cocodrie United States  0.0
02/11/2022 04:00 Florida, Apalachicola United States  0.0
31/10/2022 06:00 Louisiana, Cypremort Point United States  0.0
01/11/2022 03:00 Alabama, Bellefontaine United States  0.0
31/10/2022 17:00 Florida, Plantation Key Plantation Key United States  0.0