Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for LISA-22 in Guatemala, Belize from 30 Oct 2022 21:00 UTC to 05 Nov 2022 15:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for LISA-22

in Guatemala, Belize

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LISA-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Virgin Islands, U.S.
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	54 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (05 Nov 11:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Guatemala)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	54 km/h	0.4 m	92 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	115 km/h	1.2 m	522 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

115 km/h

Up to 20 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Nov 2022 06:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Virgin Islands, U.S.	18,097

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	30 Oct 2022 18:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	31 Oct 2022 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	31 Oct 2022 06:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	31 Oct 2022 12:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	31 Oct 2022 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	01 Nov 2022 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	01 Nov 2022 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	01 Nov 2022 12:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	01 Nov 2022 18:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	02 Nov 2022 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	02 Nov 2022 06:00	104	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	02 Nov 2022 12:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	02 Nov 2022 18:00	94	-		-	-	-	-	-	Belize
14	03 Nov 2022 00:00	97	-		-	-	-	-	-	Belize
15	03 Nov 2022 06:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	03 Nov 2022 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	03 Nov 2022 18:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	04 Nov 2022 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	04 Nov 2022 06:00	90	-		-	-	-	-	-	Virgin Islands, U.S.

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Nov 2022 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Colombia	120
100-250 mm	Antigua and Barbuda, Colombia, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Panama, Brazil	4,664,235	+
	Antigua and Barbuda	5,237
	Colombia	4,499,179
	Venezuela	184
	Costa Rica	72,653
	Panama	86,933
	Brazil	46
50-100 mm	United States, Anguilla, Saint-Martin, Sint Maarten, Saint-Barthélemy, Saba, Saint Eustatius, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Barbados, Venezuela, Colombia, Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica, Panama, Guyana, Brazil	9,742,386	+
	United States	412,275
	Anguilla	14,614
	Saint-Martin	41,651
	Sint Maarten	39,623
	Saint-Barthélemy	10,440
	Antigua and Barbuda	86,580
	Saba	2,013
	Saint Eustatius	2,191
	Saint Kitts and Nevis	45,772
	Montserrat	5,124
	Guadeloupe	219,330
	Mexico	22,274
	Guatemala	1,599,230
	Honduras	782,358
	El Salvador	249,227
	Barbados	184,108
	Colombia	3,126,301
	Venezuela	1,487,612
	Trinidad and Tobago	299,099
	Costa Rica	477,753
	Panama	611,916
	Guyana	17,024
	Brazil	5,859

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	30 Oct 2022 18:00	123	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	31 Oct 2022 00:00	51	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	31 Oct 2022 06:00	138	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	31 Oct 2022 12:00	96	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	31 Oct 2022 18:00	21	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	01 Nov 2022 00:00	48	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	01 Nov 2022 06:00	94	-		-	-	-	-	-	Venezuela
8	01 Nov 2022 12:00	140	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	01 Nov 2022 18:00	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	02 Nov 2022 00:00	89	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	02 Nov 2022 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	02 Nov 2022 12:00	155	-		-	-	-	-	-	Colombia
13	02 Nov 2022 18:00	150	110 thousand			-	-	-	-	Belize, Colombia
14	03 Nov 2022 00:00	104	1 thousand			-	-	-	-	Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Colombia, Venezuela
15	03 Nov 2022 06:00	79	-		-	-	-	-	-	Colombia, Venezuela, Brazil
16	03 Nov 2022 12:00	143	-		-	-	-	-	-	Guyana
17	03 Nov 2022 18:00	171	8 thousand			-	-	-	-	Venezuela, Colombia
18	04 Nov 2022 00:00	147	10 thousand			-	-	-	-	Venezuela, Guyana, Colombia
19	04 Nov 2022 06:00	494	4.7 million				-	-	-	United States, Anguilla, Saint-Martin, Sint Maarten, Saint-Barthélemy, Antigua and Barbuda, Saba, Saint Eustatius, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Barbados, Colombia, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica, Panama, Guyana, Brazil

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.4 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 04 Nov 2022 06:00 UTC

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.