Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for LISA-22
in Guatemala, Belize
03 Nov 2022 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LISA-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Bermuda, United States, Belize
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 97 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (03 Nov 03:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Guatemala)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 97 km/h 0.4 m 104 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 115 km/h 1.2 m 522 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

115 km/h

Up to 130 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Nov 2022 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormBermuda, United States, Belize129,160
+
Bermuda53,004 
United States07 
Belize76,147 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 30 Oct 2022 18:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 31 Oct 2022 00:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 31 Oct 2022 06:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 31 Oct 2022 12:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 31 Oct 2022 18:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 01 Nov 2022 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 01 Nov 2022 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 01 Nov 2022 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 01 Nov 2022 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 02 Nov 2022 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 02 Nov 2022 06:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 02 Nov 2022 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 02 Nov 2022 18:00 94 -
- - - - - Belize
GREEN 14 03 Nov 2022 00:00 97 -
- - - - - Bermuda, United States, Belize
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Nov 2022 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmColombia5,995 
100-250 mmDominican Republic, Mexico, Puerto Rico, Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Colombia, Venezuela, Panama, Guyana, Brazil, Suriname4,018,901
+
Dominican Republic58,812 
Mexico8,746 
Belize5,225 
Puerto Rico301,857 
Guatemala22 
Honduras40 
El Salvador175,397 
Colombia2,183,446 
Venezuela1,033,891 
Panama243,403 
Guyana1,305 
Brazil6,752 
50-100 mmUnited States, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Belize, Puerto Rico, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Saint Lucia, Colombia, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica, Panama, Guyana, Brazil, Suriname19,459,187
+
United States81,840 
Dominican Republic914,457 
Mexico825,620 
Belize241,488 
Puerto Rico969,493 
Guatemala2,443,528 
Honduras808,511 
Nicaragua155,876 
El Salvador666,447 
Saint Lucia11,823 
Colombia10,291,782 
Venezuela1,374,067 
Trinidad and Tobago7,056 
Costa Rica215,887 
Panama411,047 
Guyana22,540 
Brazil17,716 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 30 Oct 2022 18:00 123 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 31 Oct 2022 00:00 51 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 31 Oct 2022 06:00 138 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 31 Oct 2022 12:00 96 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 31 Oct 2022 18:00 21 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 01 Nov 2022 00:00 48 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 01 Nov 2022 06:00 94 -
- - - - - Venezuela
Blue 8 01 Nov 2022 12:00 140 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 01 Nov 2022 18:00 47 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 02 Nov 2022 00:00 89 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 02 Nov 2022 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 02 Nov 2022 12:00 155 -
- - - - - Colombia
Blue 13 02 Nov 2022 18:00 150 110 thousand
- - - - Belize, Colombia
Blue 14 03 Nov 2022 00:00 457 4 million
- - - United States, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Belize, Puerto Rico, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Saint Lucia, Colombia, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica, Panama, Guyana, Brazil, Suriname




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.4 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 03 Nov 2022 00:00 UTC